East Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Storm ADRIAN (1E) 10/1600Z nr 10.3N 92.7W, moving NW at 06kt (JTWC) -Updated 10 May 2017 1840z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Adrian (1E)

Adrian is expected to gradually strengthen and reach
hurricane force Saturday while generally moving NW through
Saturday..
(NHC Miami FL 10/1540Z)

Scroll down for Hurricane Advisory

(Image: @wunderground)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 01E (Adrian) Warning #04
Issued at 10/1600Z

01E_101200sair adrian 10ep0117 JTWC 10 Adrian

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
101200Z — NEAR 10.1N 92.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 92.5W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 10.8N 93.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z — 11.4N 94.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 11.9N 95.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 12.2N 96.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 12.7N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 13.0N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 13.0N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 92.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1920 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.
//
NNNN

National Hurricane Center – Miami FL

143603_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind nhc 10

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 101441 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 4…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012017
1000 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Corrected for headline

…ADRIAN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…10.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 435 MI…700 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was
located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Adrian is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a slow
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 10 May, 2017 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ADRIAN is currently located near 9.5 N 92.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). ADRIAN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

TSR Adrian 10

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm3 NHC 10

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 101430

WTPZ21 KNHC 101430 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012017
1500 UTC WED MAY 10 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 92.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 92.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 10.8N 93.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…40NE 40SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.4N 94.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.9N 95.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT…20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT…60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.2N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT…30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.7N 97.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT…40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1540 UTC Wed May 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
Tropical Storm Adrian is centered near 10.4N 92.7W at 10/1500 UTC
or about 380 nm SSE of Salina Cruz Mexico moving NW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 93W and
95W. Scattered moderate is elsewhere from 09N to 15N between 91W
and 97W. Adrian is expected to gradually strengthen and reach
hurricane force Saturday while generally moving NW through
Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 10N89W then from
11N96W to low pres 1008 MB 10N103W to 07N106W to 05N116W. ITCZ
from 05N116W to 06N126W to 04N135W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 06N between 78W and 82W…from 02N to
07N between 87W and 94W…from 03N to 08N between 107W and
126W…and from 03N to 07N between 129W and 139W.

…DISCUSSION…

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO…
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Storm Adrian which is forecast to approach the offshore waters
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later in the week.

Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of
California. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds prevail N of 27N W of
the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate NW winds prevail across
the remainder of the forecast area NW of Manzanillo…except
occasional fresh NW winds in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas.
Seas range from 5-7 ft in the offshore waters off Baja
California Norte…and 1-3 ft across the Gulf of California…
except 3-4 ft S of 24N. Seas in the 4-7 ft range are noted
elsewhere. Little change in marine conditions is expected through
the end of the week…with the exception of Tropical Storm Adrian
moving into the southern-most zone late Thursday into early
Thursday night. Otherwise…by Friday night into Saturday…the
pressure gradient off southern California will increase
supporting strong NW winds which will build NW swell to 8-12 ft
in offshore waters N of 25N.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR…
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Storm Adrian east of Central America.

Otherwise…mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail
during the daytime hours…with gentle to moderate offshore
winds during the overnight hours through the next several days.
Combined seas of 4-7 ft will also dominate the waters through the
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA…
An area of high pressure with ridge axis extending from 29N147W
to 21N118W is expected to continue weakening and dissipate as a
cold front approaches the NW part of the discussion area. The
front will stall and dissipate from 30N132W to 27N140W by
Thursday night. High pressure will build in behind the front…
increasing trades and resultant seas slightly by the end of the
week. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere N of the ITCZ. Decaying combined seas of 6-8 ft are
across this same area.

$$
HUFFMAN

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Storm Danielle (04L) STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS E MEXICO…NHC – Published 20 Jun 2016 1745z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Danielle

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

National Hurricane Center FL US

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]000
WTNT34 KNHC 201432
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

…DANIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…20.7N 96.3W
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI…165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.3 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
west or west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Danielle
makes landfall in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2016 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DANIELLE is currently located near 20.7 N 96.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). DANIELLE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Danielle the Atlantic’s Earliest 4th Storm on Record; 115°-120° Heat in SW U.S – WEATHER UNDERGROUND

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 3:59 PM GMT on June 20, 2016

“Tropical Storm Danielle formed on Monday morning in the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche, but won’t be around long. The storm’s west to west-northwest motion will carry the storm inland over Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico by Monday evening. With top winds of just 45 mph as estimated by the National Hurricane Center in their 11 am EDT Monday advisory, heavy rain is expected to be the primary threat from the storm. Satellite loops show a large area of intense thunderstorms with heavy rain are moving inland along the Mexican coast south of Texas, and total rainfall amounts of 6 – 10″ are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides in the mountainous terrain along the coast. Heavy rains from Danielle will remain just south of Texas, with Brownsville expected to pick up an inch of rain or less in scattered thunderstorms through Monday night. Danielle will dissipate by Tuesday over the rugged terrain east of Mexico City.”
For more click link https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3337

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 20

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431

WTNT24 KNHC 201431
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 50NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 97.2W…NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 98.1W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z…DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 96.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Mexico: Hurricane Patricia 20E CAT1: Tropical Storm Warning for Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas (NHC) – Updated 24 Oct 2015 0930z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Patricia 20E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083407W5_NL_sm 24a

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 240832
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM…SSW OF ZACATECAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM ENE OF TEPIC MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning west of Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 103.1 West. Patricia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). Patricia is
forecast to move quickly north-northeastward farther inland over
northern and northeastern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and
Patricia is forecast to become a tropical storm later this morning,
and dissipate tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles
(465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of the warning area and over inland areas, especially in
higher elevations, near the center through this morning.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains are likely
to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. During the
past 24 hours, a rainfall total of 10.25 inches (260 mm) has been
reported at Nevado De Colima in Jalisco state.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to gradually subside but
will remain above normal through late today.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 20E (Patricia) Warning #17
Issued at 24/0400Z

JTWC 24

20E_232345sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 240400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240000Z — NEAR 19.6N 104.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 104.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 22.7N 103.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 25.0N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 104.3W.
HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 19E (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 24 Oct, 2015 3:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane PATRICIA (20E) currently located near 20.2 N 104.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Zacatecas (22.8 N, 102.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
    Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2 24

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 240832

WTPZ25 KNHC 240832
TCMEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WEST OF MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 250SE 60SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.6N 101.2W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 103.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

More warnings here: METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Hurricane Carlos 03E CAT1 14/1200Z 15.8N 100.3W, stationary (NHC) – Updated 140615 1420Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Carlos 03E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado

…CARLOS WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO…….NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Acapulco Radar, MX

Acapulco Radar, MX

National Weather ServiceaNational Hurricane Center

114543W5_NL_sm c14

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 141141
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

…CARLOS WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.8N 100.3W
ABOUT 80 MI…130 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI…315 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB…29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 100.3 West. Carlos has been
nearly stationary for the past few hours. However, a turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. However, some restrengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force-winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
Monday night or early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Tuesday with
maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 03E (Carlos) Warning #15
Issued at 14/1000Z

ep0315 c14

WTPN31 PHNC 141000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
140600Z — NEAR 15.6N 100.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 100.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 16.3N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 16.9N 102.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 17.5N 103.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 18.0N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 20.0N 105.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 21.5N 105.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 23.5N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
141000Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 100.5W. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 74 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.//
NNNN

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Jun, 2015 9:00 GMT

Hurricane CARLOS (03E) currently located near 15.8 N 100.3 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 85% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Acapulco (17.0 N, 99.9 W)
        probability for TS is 80% currently
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 45 hours
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours
    Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

201506132056_ep_graphicast c14

000
FZPN03 KNHC 140937
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUN 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUN 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUN 16.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 15.8N 100.3W 980 MB AT 0900 UTC JUN 14
MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 80 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN
96W AND 104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 16.9N 102.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM W
AND 75 NM E SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA
FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL..
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 18.0N 104.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 105 NM W AND 90 NM E SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 28
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOS INLAND NEAR 20.0N 105.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOS OVER WATER NEAR 21.5N
105.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS INLAND NEAR 23.5N
106.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF 01N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9
FT IN SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02N W OF 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8
FT IN N SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC SUN JUN 14…

.HURRICANE CARLOS…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM SE
AND 30 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N105W TO 05N115W. ITCZ FROM 05N115W TO
04N120W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Hurricane Blanca (02E) CAT2 070400Z POSITION nr 19.3N 110.4W, moving NNW 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 070615 0920Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Blanca 02E

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Loreto to Mulege

…WEAKENING BLANCA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32
FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Guasave Radar Loop

Guasave Radar Loop

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083620W5_NL_sm B7

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 070837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

…WEAKENING BLANCA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.8N 110.8W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI…575 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Loreto to Mulege

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 110.8 West. Blanca is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slight increase
in forward speed tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Blanca will approach the southwest coast of the Baja
California peninsula later today and move near or along the coast
tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Blanca is expected to weaken to a tropical storm
tonight before it reaches the southwestern coast of the Baja
California peninsula. Blanca is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression Monday night.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
southern portion of the warning area by late this morning or early
this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm conditions will then spread northward elsewhere
within the warning area tonight and Monday. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the hurricane watch area later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 10 inches over much of Baja California Sur and the southern
half of the state of Baja California, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches over Baja California Sur. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 02E (Blanca) Warning #26
Issued at 07/0400Z

ep0215 B7

WTPN32 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070000Z — NEAR 18.8N 110.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 110.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 20.4N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 22.4N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 24.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 26.4N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 29.9N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 110.4W.
HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM EAST OF
SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.//
NNNN

END

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Jun, 2015 9:00 GMT

Hurricane BLANCA (02E) currently located near 19.8 N 110.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2 B7

000
FZPN03 KNHC 070256
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN JUN 07 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUN 07.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON JUN 08.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE JUN 09.

.WARNINGS.
…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE BLANCA NEAR 19.2N 110.4W 952 MB AT 0300 UTC JUN 07
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT
GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…120 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 130 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT…
390 NM SE QUADRANT…210 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT…240 NM
SE QUADRANT…240 NM SW QUADRANT AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 07N TO 27N
BETWEEN 102W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE BLANCA NEAR 22.4N 111.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE…110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
260 NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 10
TO 15 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 103W AND
127W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BLANCA NEAR 24.6N 112.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BLANCA NEAR 26.4N 113.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 180 N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM E AND 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BLANCA NEAR 29.9N
114.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMNANT LOW OF ANDRES NEAR 18N120W 1007 MB DRIFTING SE. WITHIN
90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND
SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS MERGE WITH BLANCA.

.S OF 00N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 117W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 06N79W TO 10N100W TO 10N120W TO
00N120W…EXCEPT LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07…

.HURRICANE BLANCA…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 109W
AND 112W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
108W AND 114W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN
88W AND 100W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN
104W AND 114W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
ITCZ FROM 11N130W TO 10N140W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

$$
.FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico/ Baja California: Hurricane ODILE 15E: 131800Z nr 16.6N 106.0W, moving NW at about 4.34 knots (NHC) – Published 130914 2030z (UTC)

Hurricane Odile

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

…ODILE GETTING STRONGER…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 131752
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

…ODILE GETTING STRONGER…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI…810 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…977 MB…28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE SINCE A HURRICANE WATCH OR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST. ODILE HAS
RECENTLY MOVED LITTLE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H…LATER TODAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND PASS NEAR
OR SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH…140 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES…315 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB…28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SURF…SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Sep, 2014 21:00 GMT

Hurricane ODILE (15E) currently located near 17.0 N 106.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Tracker Map

Other Reports

 Odile becomes a hurricane– Extract

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:34 PM GMT on September 13, 2014
“In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Odile became the 11th hurricane of season Saturday morning, intensifying to a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds at 11 am EDT. Satellite loops show that Odile continues to grow more organized, but the hurricane’s heavy rains are remaining offshore of Mexico. Odile may be undergoing a period of rapid intensification that will take it to at least Category 2 strength; the 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model gave Odile a 55% chance of intensifying by 30 mph in 24 hours. While all of the reliable computer models show Odile will track northwest and remain offshore of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula, just a slight deviation to the east would bring tropical storm conditions to the coast. The 11 am EDT Saturday NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave Cabo San Lucas on the tip of the Baja Peninsula a 51% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph , and a 6% chance of hurricane-force winds. As Odile passes southern Baja on Monday, the computer models grow more divergent in their forecast for the hurricane’s track, with several reliable models (the European and UKMET) showing landfall over the Central Baja Peninsula. The GFS model keeps the storm out to sea. Regardless of the track, tropical moisture flowing northwards from Odile’s circulation is likely to bring heavy rains to Northern Mexico and the Southwest U.S. by the middle of the week.” – Dr. Jeff Masters

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1455

WTPZ25 KNHC 131455 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1500 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
. LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE SINCE A HURRICANE WATCH OR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…….100NE 150SE 170SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 131730
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 15.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 56N171W 961 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 55N174W TO 56N178W TO 60N179W. BETWEEN 120 AND 300
NM S QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. WITHIN 180 NM
N SEMICIRCLE…240 NM E…540 NM S…AND 420 NM SW QUADRANTS AND
ALSO WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE FRONT…WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12
TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 45N TO 61N BETWEEN 156W AND
175E…WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 56N163W 978 MB. BETWEEN
300 NM SW AND 480 NM S QUADRANTS…EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 46N
TO 60N BETWEEN 152W AND 173W…WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20
FT…EXCEPT SEAS TO 10 FT N OF THE LOW CENTER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FENGSHEN 59N161W 992 MB. FROM
53N TO 58N BETWEEN 151W AND 165W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14
FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FRONT EXTENDS FROM 60N150W TO 57N148W TO 45N150W. WITHIN 240 NM
NE OF THE FRONT S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 61N148W TO 57N144W TO 50N144W.
WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT S OF 57N SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10
TO 12 FT. WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 57N WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 59N140W TO 54N139W. WITHIN 60 NM E
OF THE FRONT SE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 42N151E 997 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 44N160E
TO 40N160E. WITHIN 180 NM NE AND N OF THE FRONT E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N160E 1002 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N177E 1007 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW 33N149W 1009 MB DRIFTING SE. BETWEEN 180 AND 360 NM E
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N147W 1008 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 46N146W TO 39N150W. IN AN AREA
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A LINE FROM 46N148W TO 38N155W N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 36N147W 1007 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NW
QUADRANT N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N179E 1009 MB WITH FRONT SW FROM LOW TO
36N163E. WITHIN 300 NM S QUADRANT AND 120 NM E OF THE FRONT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N167W 1013 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 42N170E TO 40N164E TO 36N160E.
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 180 NM E OF
A LINE FROM 52N150W TO 59N151W AND FROM 37N TO 44N W OF 169E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 47N BETWEEN 164E AND
178E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 49N BETWEEN 176W AND
169E.

.HIGH 52N137W 1024 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 54N135W 1019 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 50N135W 1015 MB.

.HIGH 39N179E 1026 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N173W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N172W 1024 MB.

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 15.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 16.6N 106.0W 980 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 13
MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE…150
NM SE…170 NM SW AND 90 NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 270 NM S AND 180 NM N SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 270 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 09N TO
20N BETWEEN 99W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 18.9N 108.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 160 NM S SEMICIRCLE…120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 330 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N AND
360 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA FROM 08N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 22.1N 111.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM NE…150 NM SE…130 NM SW AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 360 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND
300 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO
14 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 100W AND 119W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 24.4N 114.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 26.5N 116.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 27.5N 117.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

UPDATED FOR LATEST ADVISORY

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 16.0N 117.2W 1007 MB AT 1500
UTC SEP 13 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 45 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 113W
AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIXTEEN-E NEAR 15.5N
114.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 270 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 112W AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIXTEEN-E NEAR 18.4N
110.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 90 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS MERGED WITH AREA DESCRIBED
IN WARNING SECTION.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC SAT SEP 13…

.HURRICANE ODILE…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE
AND 300 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N79W TO 10N89W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N93W
1007 MB TO 14N95W..RESUMES FROM T.D. SIXTEEN-E TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N132W 1011 MB TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N AND 180 NM S
OF TROUGH W OF 131W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 13 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 14 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 15 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 12N144W 1008 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 11N140W TO LOW
TO 09N149W TO 07N166W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 155W AND 160W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
210 NM OF LOW AND TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 12N146W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 09N140W TO
LOW TO 08N154W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 11N149W 1008 MB. TROUGH FROM 09N140W TO
LOW TO 06N162W.

.LOW 15N172W 1008 MB MOVING W 10 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO 08N178E
TO 04N175E MOVING W SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180
NM OF LOW AND TROUGH W OF 178E…FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 171W
AND 174W…AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 163W AND 171W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 14N179W 1007 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
04N173E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. TROUGH FROM 10N174E TO
17N178E.

.FRONT FROM 30N146W TO 28N151W TO 28N155W TO 29N159W MOVING SE
SLOWLY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONT E OF
155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N144W TO 26N148W TO 25N157W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N142W TO 23N150W TO 23N155W.

.WEAKENING FRONT FROM 30N179E TO 28N172E NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 29N166W TO 28N169W TO 27N173W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.RIDGE FROM 30N164E TO 28N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.

.RIDGE FROM 25N140W TO 23N146W TO 24N155W TO 26N167W MOVING S
SLOWLY.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 167W AND 171W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 03N TO 12N W OF 173E…FROM 14N TO
27N W OF 174E…FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 147W AND 158W…WITHIN
60 NM OF 27N174W…AND ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 166W AND 180W.

$$

.HONOLULU HI.=

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/mexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico/ Baja California: Hurricane NORBERT 14E: 050600Z nr 22.3N 111.3W, moving NNW at about 6.95 knots (NHC) – Published 050914 0845z (UTC)

Hurricane NORBERT* 14E

…CENTER OF NORBERT PASSING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

(*CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 050547
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014

…CENTER OF NORBERT PASSING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.3N 111.3W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 185 MI…300 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM PDT…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA
THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM. SEVERAL MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATIONS NEAR CABO SAN
LUCAS HAVE REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY.

RAINFALL…NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1414.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
050000Z — NEAR 21.7N 111.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 111.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 22.9N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 23.9N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 24.8N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 25.7N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 27.1N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 28.5N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 01 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 29.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 111.3W.
HURRICANE 14E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM SOUTHWEST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.//
NNNN

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 5 Sep, 2014 3:00 GMT

Hurricane NORBERT (14E) currently located near 22.0 N 111.1 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for TS is 95% currently
La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Other

Hurricane Norbert Brushing Baja; 90L Emerges From the Coast of Africa – Extract

By: Jeff Masters , 12:42 PM GMT on September 04, 2014/ wunderground.com

“Hurricane Norbert took advantage of unusually warm 29.5C (85F) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and intensified into the Eastern Pacific’s tenth hurricane of the year on Wednesday evening. The Eastern Pacific has seen an unusually active hurricane season, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes so far. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with about 2/3 of that activity occurring by September 9. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that Category 1 Norbert had no eye but some very intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops, and Mexican radar showed an outer band of Norbert bringing heavy rains to the tip of the Baja Peninsula and adjacent areas of Mainland Mexico. Norbert should be able to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist atmosphere, and moderate wind shear over the next two days to maintain Category 1 hurricane strength, but the models all show the core of the hurricane remaining just offshore as it moves northwest parallel to the Baja Peninsula. Norbert is a small storm, and it’s hurricane-force winds are only expected to reach out about 25 miles from the center when it makes its closest pass by the tip of the Baja Peninsula on Thursday night and Friday morning. Hurricane force winds will likely stay offshore, but Baja can expect tropical storm-force winds from Norbert. In their 2 am PDT Thursday WInd Probability Advisory, NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 63% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, and a 0% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph. Heavy rains of 3 – 5″ causing flash flooding will be the primary threat from Norbert to Baja.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image of Tropical Storm Norbert at approximately 5 pm EDT September 3, 2014. At the time, Norbert had top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

……Jeff Masters” / wunderground.com

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0239

WTPZ24 KNHC 050239
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO
SAN EVARISTO…AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO
PUNTA ABREOJOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N 111.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 112.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.7N 115.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.1N 117.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.0N 118.8W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0530

FZPN02 KWBC 050530
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0545 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 07.

.WARNINGS.

…STORM WARNING…
.LOW 42N172E 988 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM NE…480 NM
SE…360 NM SW…AND 300 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS
8 TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N177E 976 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
540 NM NE…840 NM SE…480 NM SW…AND 420 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N180W 978 MB. WITHIN 480 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 600 NM E QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 21 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 35N TO 50N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W AREA OF N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 40N TO 51N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W AREA OF
N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW 57N158W 1003 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 660 NM E AND 1020
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N152W 1009 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
60N141W TO 54N148W TO 45N149W. WITHIN 240 NM SE AND E OF THE
FRONT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N141W 1007 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 30N TO 33N W OF 165E
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N163E 1007 MB. FROM 30N TO 34N W OF 167E
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 46N TO 59N
BETWEEN 137W AND 162W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 45N TO 55N BETWEEN 146W AND
154W AND FROM 42N TO 48N BETWEEN 172W AND 179E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 44N TO 50N BETWEEN 164W AND
170W.

.HIGH 48N138W 1030 MB DRIFTING NE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N136W 1027 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N142W 1022 MB.

.HIGH 53N178W 1016 MB MOVING N 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 41N160W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N155W 1019 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT SEP 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN SEP 07.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 22.0N 111.1W 970 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 05
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE…100
NM SE…90 NM SW AND 80 NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE…210 NM NE QUADRANT AND 240 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W AND 114W AND FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 23.9N 112.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS
TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 240 NM SE
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM
16N TO 28N BETWEEN 105W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 25.7N 115.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE…100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA E OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM
20N TO 29N BETWEEN 111W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 27.1N 117.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NORBERT NEAR 28.5N
118.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NORBERT NEAR 29.0N
118.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF LINE FROM 00N124W TO 02N119W TO 03.4S97W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0200 UTC FRI SEP 5…
.HURRICANE NORBERT…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM
OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N98W TO 10N105W…CONTINUES FROM
15N113W TO 12N120W TO 12N127W…THEN ITCZ 12N131W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM N AND 60 NM S OF
AXIS E OF 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 05 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 06 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 07 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 29N143W 1012 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 28N146W 1014 MB. WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT
OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WEAKENED TO A TROUGH FROM 29N147W TO
26N150W.

.LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 29N159W 1007 MB MOVING NE SLOWLY. WINDS
20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS N OF 28N
W OF 162E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 30N161E 1006 MB. FRONT FROM LOW TO
28N160E. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST N OF AREA NEAR 31N163E 1007 MB. FRONT
FROM LOW TO 27N160E. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 165E.

.HIGH 25N170W 1016 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. RIDGES FROM HIGH TO
30N155W AND FROM HIGH TO 24N175E TO 22N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 25N173W 1015 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF 27N W OF 164E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF A LINE FROM 30N170W TO
27N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 28N W OF 178W.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 170E.

.ITCZ FROM 09N140W TO 10N152W TO 07N170W TO 06N160E. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ.

$$
.FORECASTER BURKE. HONOLULU HI.=

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/mexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Eastern Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Disturbance 93E: 020830Z nr 15.6N 107.5W, moving NE at 9 knots. High chance of becoming Tropical Cyclone within next 24 hours (JTWC) – Published 020914 1505z (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 93E

THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) Invest 93E (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Surface Temp (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep9314.gif

 

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/93E_020830sair.jpg

 

 

WTPN21 PHNC 020830

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0N 106.6W TO 19.9N 110.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 107.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6N 107.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 272 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 020451Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
CENTER. A 020404Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH
STRONGER WINDS (30 KNOTS) OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND WEAKER
05 TO 10 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030830Z.//
NNNN

Other

Eastern Pacific’s 93E a potential threat to Bajawunderground.com
“In the Eastern Pacific, tropical disturbance Invest 93E is gathering strength a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. In their Monday morning runs, both the GFS and European models predicted that 93E would develop into a tropical storm late this week, and pass very close to the tip of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula on Friday. Satellite loops show that 93E is poorly organized today, and I expect that the earliest the disturbance would become a tropical depression is Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93E 2-day and 5-day odd of development of 20% and 70%, respectively.”

Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:22 PM GMT on September 01, 2014

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 021130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SEP 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 04.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 45N167E 1004 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 180 NM E QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 39N TO 48N
BETWEEN 173E AND 160E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 44N172E 1005 MB. FROM 40N TO 48N BETWEEN
178E AND 165E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N173E 1006 MB. WITHIN 300 NM N AND NE
SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 33N TO 44N BETWEEN 121W AND 129W N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 40N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 44N BETWEEN
123W AND 129W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 39N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N WINDS
30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 46N BETWEEN
123W AND 131W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 49N TO 55N BETWEEN 133W AND 140W W TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 48N TO 50N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W N TO NW
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 47N TO 54N E OF
134W N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 46N TO 51N E OF 130W N TO NW WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.POST-TROPICAL MARIE 31N140W 1015 MB DRIFTING SW. WITHIN 240 NM
N QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL MARIE 30N141W 1014 MB. WITHIN
240 NM N QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL MARIE S OF FORECAST AREA. FROM
30N TO 33N BETWEEN 140W AND 145W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.LOW 48N162W 1017 MB MOVING N 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM N AND NE
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N162W 1015 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N160W 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N AND NW
QUADRANTS…AND FROM 40N TO 52N BETWEEN 148W AND 158W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW 60N148W 1011 MB MOVING E 10 KT. N OF 55N BETWEEN 145W AND
155W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW TO FORM 61N152W. N
OF 55N BETWEEN 144W AND 154W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 57N TO 60N BETWEEN 173W AND 157W W TO
SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N163E 1000 MB. FROM 32N TO 42N BETWEEN
168E AND 160E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 42N TO 48N
BETWEEN 150W AND 163W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF 45N168E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 42N TO 52N BETWEEN 148W AND
166W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 43N TO 55N BETWEEN 143W AND
161W.

.HIGH 52N152W 1026 MB MOVING SE 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N142W 1028 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 48N139W 1028 MB.

.HIGH 44N146W 1025 MB DRIFTING N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 53N173W 1026 MB MOVING NW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 54N176W 1021 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 55N178W 1020 MB.

.HIGH 33N163E 1018 MB MOVING SE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 31N168E 1017 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N175E 1015 MB.

.FORECASTER COLLINS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE SEP 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED SEP 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU SEP 04.

.WARNINGS.
…GALE WARNING…

.LOW PRES NEAR 16N107W 1006 MB. WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER SE
QUADRANT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
TO 16N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT. FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT. FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
18N108W 1004 MB WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 17N105W TO 14N107W SW WINDS
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
17N104W TO 12N110W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W…AND FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
19N110W 1002 MB. WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO
21N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF 02S W OF 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 00N134W TO 04N128W TO 06N117W
TO 01S109W TO 03.4S98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 00N132W TO 08N121W TO 00N104W
TO 03.4S91W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0815 UTC TUE SEP 02…

.LOW PRES NEAR 16N107W 1006 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N109W TO 10N122W
AND FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N83W TO 08N93W THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES
NEAR 16N107W 1006 MB TO 18N115W TO 12N126W. ITCZ FROM 12N126W TO
11N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 45 TO 60 NM ALONG COAST OF
COLOMBIA N OF 03N…AND N OF 06N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 78W AND
84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ALONG
ENTIRE COAST OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 12N
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W…FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W.

.FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SEP 02 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 03 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 04 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW…POST-TROPICAL MARIE…JUST N OF FORECAST AREA 31N140W
1015 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW…POST-TROPICAL MARIE…30N141W 1015 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW…POST-TROPICAL MARIE…29N143W 1013 MB.

.FRONT FROM 30N180E TO 29N175E TO 29S169E. FRONT MOVING SE
SLOWLY E OF 175E…AND NEARLY STATIONARY ELSEWHERE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N177W TO 26N171E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT WEAKENED TO TROUGH FROM 30N178E TO
26N169E.

.TROUGH FROM 13N179W TO 03N177E MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 13N174W TO 05N170W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MOVED W OF FORECAST AREA.

.RIDGE FROM 30N152W TO 29N154W TO 27N165W TO 24N176W MOVING E
SLOWLY.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 148W
AND 160W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 151W
AND 162W.

.OTHERWISE…SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER FORECAST AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 11N140W TO 11N144W TO 09N148W TO 08N158W TO 06N171W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ W OF
152W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ E
OF 152W.

$$
.FORECASTER HOUSTON. HONOLULU HI.=

METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/gulfmexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico/ Bay Of Campeche: Tropical Storm DOLLY (05L): 022100Z near 22.0N 97.0W , moving W at 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 020914 2104z (UTC)

Tropical Storm DOLLY (05L)

…CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) North Atlantic Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021755
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

…CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH…
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.0N 96.5W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF DOLLY IS REFORMING SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.

AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING…AND MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM
FROM THE CENTER…MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007
MB…29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON…AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 2 Sep, 2014 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DOLLY (AL05) currently located near 22.0 N 97.0 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Other

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Dolly in Gulf of Mexico; Watching Eastern Pacific

Stu Ostro / wunderground.com
Published: September 2, 2014
– Tropical Depression Five upgraded to Tropical Storm Dolly

– Center relocated about 100 miles northwest of previous NHC estimate

– Tropical Storm Warning issued for the coast of Mexico centered on Tampico

GULF OF MEXICO: TROPICAL STORM DOLLY

Hurricane Hunters investigating Tropical Depression Five this morning found winds easily strong enough to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Dolly, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Perhaps most interesting is the finding by the Hurricane Hunters that the center had reformed about 100 miles west-northwest of the previous estimate from NHC. Strangely NHC located the center at 22.4N 94.4W at 2 am (based on early aircraft information) but the Hurricane Hunters just estimated the center about 80 miles southwest of this near 21.5N 95.3W. Regardless, the center is jumping around, not all that uncommon of developing systems. The core of Dolly will still remain south of the U.S.

(MORE:�Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast)

Strong northerly winds aloft continue to blow thunderstorms to the southeast of Dollys center. Winds at 3,000 feet about 50 miles southeast of the new circulation were measured at 60 mph by the Hurricane Hunters, which reduces to about 45 mph near the ocean surface. The instrument on the bottom of the plane is also estimating winds at the surface in the 45-50 mph range, so NHC is setting the winds at 45 mph for now. Some strengthening is possible tomorrow as Dolly approaches the coast of Mexico.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for a small stretch of coastline centered on Tampico in the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico. Only modest strengthening is expected before it moves inland on Wednesday. The primary impact will be heavy rainfall as the system approaches Mexico late Tuesday.

Previous update: The system will be guided westward under a strong dome of high pressure to the north. It only has a 24-48 hour window over water before moving inland over Mexico. Regardless of development, the difference in pressure between Dolly and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will establish a strong southeast to northwest flow sweeping toward the Texas coast, which will bring abundant tropical moisture to the Lower Rio Grande Valley by the middle part of the week.

(MORE:Glossary of Tropical Terms�|�New�NHC�Storm Surge Maps)

The main impacts in the U.S. will a high risk for rip currents along the lower Texas coast, including South Padre Island, and the potential for heavy rainfall on Tuesday into Wednesday from Brownsville to Corpus Christi.

/ wunderground.com

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Atlantic

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2043

WTNT25 KNHC 022043
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 97.0W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 97.0W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 96.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N 98.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 99.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 97.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH=

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1608

FZNT01 KWBC 021608
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 02
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 03
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 04

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL INLAND 59N77W 979 MB. FROM 60N TO 62N
W OF 61W AREA OF E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE W
OF A LINE FROM 63N64W TO 60N57W TO 53N50W TO 46N60W WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST INLAND LOW 60N74W 982 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
62N65W TO 60N56W TO 57N54W TO 50N61W TO 46N65W. WITHIN 120 NM N
OF FRONT N OF 60N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM NE AND E OF FRONT N OF 56N AND WITHIN 360 NM E OF
FRONT S OF 56N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 63N60W 992 MB.
WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND BETWEEN 240 NM AND 420
NM S QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 52N52W 1002 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
61N47W TO 57N47W TO LOW CENTER TO 45N54W. WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
300 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 62N37W 990 MB MOVING E 10 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
420 NM S AND 150 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8
TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 62N29W 1000 MB. FROM 55N TO 59N
E OF 39W AREA OF W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.FROM 53N TO 63N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W AREA OF NW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH LOW E OF AREA 62N29W
ABOVE.

.LOW 38N34W 1010 MB JUST E OF AREA MOVING SE 10 KT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM W AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.LOW 43N53W 1011 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM
S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N50W 1015 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 42N TO 44N
BETWEEN 47W AND 53W AND FROM 41N TO 44N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG W OF A LINE FROM 62N60W TO 57N48W TO
46N59W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE FROM
60N48W TO 52N53W TO 42N54W.

.HIGH 34N57W 1024 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N57W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 32N59W 1022 MB.

.HIGH 49N52W 1021 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N44W 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 50N35W 1025 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 32N68W 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 04.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM DOLLY NEAR 23.4N 96.5W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
02 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE…30 NM NE QUADRANT AND
60 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INLAND NEAR 24.5N 99.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT…100 NM SE QUADRANT…0 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY INLAND NEAR 24.8N
100.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 81W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/gulfmexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific: Tropical Depression Karina 11E: 252100Z near 17.2N 127.6W, moving E at about 5.2 knots(NHC) – Updated 250814 2102z (UTC)

Tropical Depression KARINA 11E

…KARINA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION……NHC

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 252036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

…KARINA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.2N 127.6W
ABOUT 1215 MI…1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. KARINA
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1114.gif

WTPN31 PHNC 251600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 051
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 17.2N 128.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 128.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 16.8N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 16.4N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 15.7N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 127.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 985 NM
WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Other

Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog

 

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1433

WTPZ21 KNHC 252035
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 127.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.3N 126.2W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 127.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 251730
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 27.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 51N170E 1008 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. FROM 43N TO 53N BETWEEN
179W AND 165E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N174W 1008 MB. FROM 48N TO 53N BETWEEN
165W AND 180W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N167W 1007 MB. FROM 49N TO 54N BETWEEN
151W AND 174W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW W OF AREA 44N155E 1003 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. FROM 36N TO 43N
BETWEEN 160E AND 165E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 46N157E 996 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 720 NM SE AND 540 NE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N158E 995 MB. FROM 38N TO 49N BETWEEN
172E AND 164E…AND OVER FORECAST WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM
48N160E TO 52N170E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N162E 992 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 300 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 39N TO 50N W OF 178E…AND N OF 50N W OF 171E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 59N156W 1000 MB MOVING E 15 KT. FROM 49N TO 60N BETWEEN
145W AND 172W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N144W 1007 MB. FROM 52N TO 58N BETWEEN
140W AND 156W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N142W 1014 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW 46N154W 1020 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. FROM 41N TO 46N BETWEEN
152W AND 158W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N142W 1017 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N130W 1017 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 38N TO 50N BETWEEN 124W AND 136W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 39N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W AREA OF
N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 129W AND 140W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 130W AND 145W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 135W AND 142W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 45N TO 51N
BETWEEN 134W AND 139W…AND FROM 41N TO 52N BETWEEN 160E AND
178W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 120 NM OF 48N138W…FROM 49N
TO 54N BETWEEN 169W AND 175E…AND FROM 39N TO 49N W OF 172E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 172W AND
168E…AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 48N162E.

.HIGH 42N144W 1028 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N143W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N141W 1023 MB.

.HIGH 44N173W 1029 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N164W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N162W 1029 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 37N171W 1026 MB.

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED AUG 27.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 17.9N 114.8W 932 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 25
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…240 NM NE QUADRANT AND 270 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM NE QUADRANT…390 NM SE
QUADRANT…300 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 330 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 44 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W 120W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER N OF 07N BETWEEN 105W AND
120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 20.1N 118.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 210 NM E SEMICIRCLE…150 NM SW QUADRANT AND 160 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND
480 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 37 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 22.2N 123.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT…170 NM SE QUADRANT…110 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 540 NM FROM CENTER WITH SEAS TO 26 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIE NEAR 24.5N 128.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL MARIE NEAR 28.0N 132.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 30.5N
133.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA NEAR 17.1N 128.0W 1004 MB AT 1500
UTC AUG 25 MOVING ELSE OR 110 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W
AND 132W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 16.4N
126.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 120 NM
SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 15.7N
125.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 120 NM
SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.LOW NEAR 25N130W 1004 MB…REMNANT OF LOWELL. WITHIN 240 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
22N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 23N135W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N
W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 26N138W 1007 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 17N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC MON AUG 25…

.HURRICANE MARIE…NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE
AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 13N
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA….SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM SW
QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 10N90W TO 09N100W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS
PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 90W AND
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 25 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 26 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 27 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 14N142W 1009 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.LOW NEAR 10N175W 1008 MB MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 11N179W 1008 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N142W TO 11N147W TO 11N156W AND ALSO FROM
09N161W TO 09N169W TO 10N175W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E OF 147W AND W OF
169W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF TROUGH.

.ITCZ FROM 08N179W TO 06N175E TO 08N166E TO 06N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM OF ITCZ.

$$
.FORECASTER A BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/npacific/mappage.htm

http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http%3A//www.passageweather.com/maps/mexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

East Pacific/ Mexico: Hurricane MARIE 13E CAT4: 251600Z near 18.0N 115.0W, moving NW at 10 knots (JTWC) – Updated 250814 1637z (UTC)

Hurricane Marie 13E

(CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…EYE OF MARIE VERY NEAR CLARION ISLAND…
…LARGE SWELLS MOVING UP THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

000

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 251433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

…EYE OF MARIE VERY NEAR CLARION ISLAND…
…LARGE SWELLS MOVING UP THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.9N 114.8W
ABOUT 255 MI…415 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 470 MI…755 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…932 MB…27.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH…230 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS…BUT MARIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES…500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB…27.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO…THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA…AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TODAY…AND WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS…AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1314.gif

 

 

WTPN33 PHNC 251600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251200Z — NEAR 17.6N 114.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 114.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 18.9N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 20.1N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z — 21.2N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 22.2N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 24.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 28.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 30.5N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 115.0W.
HURRICANE 13E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND
261600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1433

WTPZ23 KNHC 251433
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT…….100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT…….240NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 390SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT…240NE 240SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT… 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT…210NE 210SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.2N 120.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT… 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT…190NE 190SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.2N 123.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT… 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT…180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.0W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 251130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 27.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 50N167E 1006 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 180 NM N AND 420 NM
SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 53N177W 1011 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW AND 360
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N171W 1014 MB. FROM 49N TO 52N BETWEEN
157W AND 176W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA NEAR 46N157E 998 MB. WITHIN 600
NM SE AND E QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N160E 993 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 420 NM NE AND 660 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 60N165W 1000 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 300 NM SW AND 540
NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED INLAND AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.FROM 37N TO 52N BETWEEN 124W AND 136W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 45N BETWEEN 124W AND 133W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 43N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 126W AND 142W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 145W AND 131W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 150W AND 133W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

.LOW 45N157W 1020 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 180 NM OF
LOW…FROM 48N TO 52N BETWEEN 133W AND 141W…AND WITHIN 180 NM
NW OF A LINE FROM 33N174E TO 38N180W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N144W 1017 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N133W 1015 MB. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 47N TO 57N
BETWEEN 134W AND 146W AND FROM 43N TO 51N BETWEEN 163E AND 173E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 52N W OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 36N TO 52N BETWEEN 161E AND
179E.

.HIGH 42N144W 1029 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 NOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N142W 1024 MB.

.HIGH 44N176E 1030 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 44N168W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N162W 1029 MB.

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON AUG 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE AUG 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED AUG 27.

...HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 17.3N 113.9W 932 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 25
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT
GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…270 NM SE QUADRANT AND 240 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM NE QUADRANT…390 NM SE QUADRANT 300
NM SW QUADRANT…AND 330 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 48 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E AND 510 NM S QUADRANTS…AND 300 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 102W AND 120W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX
OF SWELL. S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 19.6N 117.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE…220 NM NE QUADRANT AND 240 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 510 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 46 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM E AND 540 NM S
QUADRANTS…AND 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 125W…
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 26N…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W
AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MERGING SW AND
NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIE NEAR 22.0N 121.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE…120 NM SW QUADRANT…150 NM NW.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 360 NM SW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF
CENTER… EXCEPT 240 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 18N E OF 130W…INCLUDING THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N…AND FROM 05N TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND
125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIE NEAR 24.7N 126.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 27.8N
130.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIE NEAR 30.2N
132.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 17.2N 128.4W 1003 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
25 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT
90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM QUADRANT. SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 90 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N
TO 20N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA NEAR 17.1N 127.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER…ELSEWHERE AND REMAINDER OF AREA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 16.7N
127.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 22N
BETWEEN 125W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A
BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 15.6N
124.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT. WITHIN 150 NM
SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
07N TO 18N W OF 123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A
BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 26N130W 1004 MB…REMNANT OF LOWELL. WITHIN 240 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
20N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 26N133W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N
W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 28N137W 1007 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 150 NM N QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 18N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC MON AUG 25…

.HURRICANE MARIE…NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
200 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 360 NM SE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA….NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 08N103W TO
10N103W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 88W.

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 25 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 26 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 27 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW NEAR 14N143W 1009 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED TSTMS
INCLUDED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LOWER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N143W TO 11N149W TO 11N158W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF
150W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 07N E OF
160W.

.ITCZ FROM 10N167W TO 08N177W TO 10N172E TO 07N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF ITCZ. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 01N W OF 160W.

$$
.FORECASTER A BEDAL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/npacific/mappage.htm

http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http%3A//www.passageweather.com/maps/mexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

East Pacific/Mexico: Hurricane LOWELL 12E: 211500Z near 20.0N 122.1W , moving NW at 3 knots(NHC) – Updated 210814 1633z (UTC)

Hurricane LOWELL 12E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…LOWELL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT….NHC

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Global Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

…LOWELL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.0N 122.1W
ABOUT 810 MI…1300 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH…6 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TODAY…
BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES…295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB…29.00 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1214.gif

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 211600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 015
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
211200Z — NEAR 19.7N 122.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 122.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 20.7N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 21.7N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z — 22.8N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 23.8N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 25.5N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 27.3N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 28.5N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
211600Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 122.3W.
HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626 NM WEST OF SOCORRO
ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

 

Other

EASTERN PACIFIC – WestPacWx
Large Lowell‘s circulation also has a large center as shown by the satellite image.No significant changes to previous days’ expectations of a steering interaction between Lowell and smaller Karina.

An increase in rainfall is expected in Arizona tomorrow; that is primarily due to the upper low which has been over SoCal, though it could tap a bit of Lowell’s moisture.

Speaking of wiggy model runs, there have been some showing the system that was near Panama, and is likely to eventually become a tropical storm, maintaining some strength all the way up to a position not far off the coast of northern California.  That’s a long way off and we can cross that bridge if we come to it …

(MORE: Glossary of Tropical Terms | New NHC Storm Surge Maps)

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

 

 

 METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431 

WTPZ22 KNHC 211431
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT……. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…….160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 280SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 122.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 211149 CCA
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII…CORRECTION PART 3
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 23.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 40N160E 1004 MB MOVING E 25 KT. WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 38N168E 1002 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N178E 999 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW WINDS
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 43N W OF 178W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N169W 1002 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 660
NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 51N135W 1013 MB MOVING SE 25 KT. WITHIN 360 NM W QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND AND CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.LOW 38N167W 1013 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM E QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N162W 1014 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.LOW 53N174E 1002 MB MOVING SE 05 KT. WITHIN 480 NM N AND 600 NM
SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N176E 1005 MB. BETWEEN 480 NM AND 660 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N175W 1002 MB. WITHIN 240 NM OF LOW
EXCEPT WITHIN 360 NM N QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.

.FROM 36N TO 42N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 35N TO 42N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W N TO NW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 37N TO 43N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W N TO NW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 133W AND 129W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 128W AND 141W NE WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 127W AND 148W E TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 40N TO 47N
BETWEEN 161W AND 155W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM
52N156W TO 42N163W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 38N TO 48N BETWEEN 174W AND
152W.

.HIGH 40N143W 1027 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N146W 1031 MB.

.HIGH 51N152W 1025 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 53N143W 1028 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 62N167W 1023 MB MOVING N 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 64N166W 1024 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 63N173W 1022 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 48N140W 1029 MB.

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU AUG 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI AUG 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT AUG 23.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 15.6N 136.2W 1001 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
21 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 40 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM
S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 15.1N 135.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM
OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 240 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 21N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 16.5N 133.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…30 NM NW QUADRANT AND
50 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
150 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 210 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 08N TO 23N W OF 130W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 18.5N 130.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 22.5N
128.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 28.5N
131.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 19.7N 121.9W 985 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
21 MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 160 NM OF CENTER.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 280 NM W SEMICIRCLE…300 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 390 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM N AND 360 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 26N BETWEEN 111W AND
130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 21.3N 123.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 420 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N
TO 28N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 23.4N 126.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 140 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240
NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF
CENTER…EXCEPT 360 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 08N TO 30N BETWEEN 112W AND 130W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL LOWELL NEAR 25.3N 129.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LOWELL NEAR 27.0N
131.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LOWELL NEAR 28.3N
134.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W 1007 MB. FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W
AND 93W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
12N98W 1006 MB. FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
14N103W 1003 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 104W
AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.S OF 03S W OF 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED
SE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 131W AND 137W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N W OF 130W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 9 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC THU AUG 21…

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM S OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL….NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE…240 NM SE AND 300 NM SW QUADRANTS.

.LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W 1007 MB…SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90
NM OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W TO
09N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND
60 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 110W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI…CORRECTION
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 21 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 22 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 23 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 07N161W 1011 MB MOVING NW SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM 06N170E TO
05N171W TO LOW NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS
WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW AND TROUGH…AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN
159W AND 163W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. TROUGH FROM 06N169W TO
12N163W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 04N170W TO 11N166W.

.LOW 14N146W 1010 MB MOVING SW SLOWLY. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
09N159W NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LOW AND TROUGH…AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 156W AND 159W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 13N147W 1009 MB. TROUGH FROM 08N156W TO
11N152W TO LOW.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 13N148W 1009 MB. TROUGH FROM 08N160W TO
LOW.

.WEAKENING FRONT FROM 30N179E TO 28N174E TO 27N169E NEARLY
STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N178E TO 28N174E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 17N154W TO 20N154W TO 21N153W MOVING W 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 28N162E 1015 MB MOVING SE SLOWLY. RIDGE FROM 29N160E TO
HIGH TO 25N174E TO 30N165W NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 26N165W 1014 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 12N TO 17N E OF 149W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS SUBSIDED TO 8 FT OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT N OF 25N E OF 145W.

.OTHERWISE SEAS 8 FT OR LESS REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS S OF A LINE FROM 27N160E TO 21N166E…S
OF 13N BETWEEN 166E AND 172E…AND FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 172E
AND 179E.

$$

.HONOLULU HI.=

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/npacific/mappage.htm

http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http%3A//www.passageweather.com/maps/mexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Eastern Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Depression DOUGLAS 04E: 051000Z near 23.2N 119.7W, moving NW at 8 knots (JTWC) – 050714 1255z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS 04E

…DOUGLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.(NHC)

(Image: wunderground.com) E Pacific Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

MEXICO

Aviso de Tiempo Severo bg20x2 bg2 h Aviso Cicl�n: Pac�fico Atl�ntico

US
National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 050844
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014

…DOUGLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.1N 119.6W
ABOUT 615 MI…990 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H.
DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0414.gif

 

 

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 051000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
050600Z — NEAR 22.8N 119.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 119.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z — 23.9N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z — 24.9N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z — 25.8N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z — 26.5N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 119.7W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

WTPZ24 KNHC 050844
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 119.6W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 119.6W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 119.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.9N 120.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.9N 121.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.8N 122.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 119.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

FZPN02 KWBC 051130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 07.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 51N135W 997 MB MOVING NW 15 KT. WITHIN 120 NM W…240 NM E
AND SW…180 NM N AND 420 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N137W 1007 MB. WITHIN 150 NM E QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 57N151W 1009 MB. WITHIN 240 NM N QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 48N160W 1003 MB DRIFTING E. WITHIN 480 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N158W 1000 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N151W 1006 MB. FROM 43N TO 47N BETWEEN
140W AND 161W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.FROM 33N TO 42N BETWEEN 122W AND 126W N TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 36N TO 41N BETWEEN 123W AND 126W NW TO N
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 35N TO 43N BETWEEN 121W AND 127W N TO NW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.LOW 35N166E 1008 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 300 NM SE AND E
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N169E 1008 MB. WITHIN 360 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW ABSORBED BY LOW W OF AREA 46N159E 997 MB.
WITHIN 180 NM N OF A FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE LOW TO 44N177E
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 40N TO 46N
BETWEEN 137W AND 145W AND N OF 44N BETWEEN 160W AND 180W AND
FROM 33N TO 53N BETWEEN 160E AND 180W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 43N TO 49N BETWEEN 128W AND
143W AND N OF 45N BETWEEN 180W AND 160W AND FROM 34N TO 50N
BETWEEN 160E AND 180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 42N TO 48N BETWEEN 138W AND
146W AND N OF 58N BETWEEN 166W AND 180W AND FROM 33N TO 47N
BETWEEN 160E AND 176W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 47N161W AND 39N126W.

.HIGH 34N134W 1022 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N136W 1023 MB.

.HIGH 35N178W 1025 MB MOVING SE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N174W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N169W 1021 MB.

.HIGH 41N178E 1025 MB MOVING NE 05 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N179W 1024 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MERGED WITH HIGH 36N169W.

.HIGH 57N162W 1014 MB MOVING NW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER LEE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 07.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS NEAR 23.1N 119.6W 1008 MB AT 0900
UTC JUL 05 MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND SE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS NEAR 24.9N
121.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 180 NM
N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS NEAR 26.5N
124.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 120 NM
NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

.FROM 11N TO 12.5N E OF 88W…INCLUDING THE GULF PAPAGAYO…NE
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W…INCLUDING THE GULF
PAPAGAYO…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W…INCLUDING THE GULF
PAPAGAYO…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 91W… INCLUDING THE
GULF PAPAGAYO…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN
S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 89W…INCLUDING THE
GULF PAPAGAYO…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN S TO
SW SWELL.

.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14.5N95.5W…
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
MERGED WITH AREA DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH BELOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N96W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13N96W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ELSEWHERE S OF 15N W OF 79W TO A LINE FROM 15N110W TO
00N137W…EXCEPT IN LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN S TO SW SWELL…EXCEPT 11 TO
14 FT S OF 04N BETWEEN 82W AND 94W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE S OF 18N W OF 79W TO A LINE FROM
18N109W TO 15N117W TO 07N118W TO 05N130W TO 00N140W…EXCEPT IN
LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
PRIMARILY IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE S OF 15N W OF 80W TO A LINE FROM
15N107W TO 06N107W TO 00N140W…EXCEPT IN LEE OF GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN S TO
SW SWELL.

.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 120 NM OF W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
N OF 25N…NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

CONVECTION VALID 0830 UTC SAT JUL 05…

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS…ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM E
SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL WAVE FROM 10N100W TO 08N98W…SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM E OF AXIS.

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W-111W FROM 08N TO 16N…SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N WITHIN 150 NM W AND 90 NM E
OF AXIS.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 02.5N TO 06.5N E OF 85W TO
COAST.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N74W TO 10N81W TO 08N98W TO
10N109W TO 08N115W…WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ…CONTINUING
ON TO 10N126W TO 10.5N136W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 99W AND
WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN BETWEEN 109W AND 115W.

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 05 2014.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 06 2014.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 07 2014.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FRONT FROM 30N164E TO 28N160E NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS BETWEEN FRONT AND LINE FROM 30N167E TO 27N165E TO
26N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED OVER FORECAST WATERS.

.RIDGE FROM 30N174E TO 25N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.

.NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 152W AND
167W… AND FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 170W AND 176W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 09N AND 17N BETWEEN
165W AND 175E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 161W AND 168W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 166W
AND 176W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 171W
AND 176E.

.SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 163E AND
172E…AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 160W AND 165W.

.ITCZ FROM 10N140W TO 08N150W TO 06N160W TO 05N175W TO 01N170E.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 168W AND 179W…AND WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ E OF 147W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N…AND 135 NM
S…OF ITCZ… AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 177E AND 179E.

$$

.FORECASTER KINEL. HONOLULU HI.=

 

MEXICO: Tropical Storm ELIDA (05E) 302100Z 17.4N 104.2W, moving WNW nr 3 knots. TS Warning LAZARO CARDENAS to CABO CORRIENTES (NHC) – Updated 300614 2105z

Tropical Storm ELIDA

…TROPICAL STORM ELIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES….(NHC)

(Image: wunderground.com) E Pacific Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

MEXICO

https://i0.wp.com/smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/cabos/rad-cabo.jpg

Aviso de Tiempo Severo bg20x2 bg2 h Aviso Ciclón: Pacífico Atlántico

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 301917
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

CORRECTED CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS HEADER

…TROPICAL STORM ELIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…17.3N 104.2W
ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES
CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK
…THE CENTER OF ELIDA SHOULD BE NEAR BUT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

RAINFALL…ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
COLIMA AND MICHOACAN…AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF JALISCO.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER UNKNOWN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151Z JUN 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 17.1N 103.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 103.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 17.9N 104.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 18.2N 104.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 18.1N 104.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 17.9N 105.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 17.8N 105.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 17.6N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 17.6N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 103.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND
011600Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A. JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN 300151Z JUN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
300200). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jun, 2014 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ELIDA (05E) currently located near 17.4 N 104.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

MARITIME

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301510
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERYTHROUGH
1500 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 114.0W OR ABOUT 445
NM…765 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 1500
UTC MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. DOUGLAS HAS NOT INTENSIFIED…BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 112W-117W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 17.3N 103.9W OR ABOUT 120 MILES…195
KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THE SAME INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF
ELIDA. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERSMIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 16N94W TO 6N95W MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 6N85W TO 5N100W THEN
RESUMES W OF T.S. DOUGLAS FROM 12N117W TO 8N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N E OF 81W TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 133W-136W.

…DISCUSSION…

AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES MUCH OF THE N
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO
BEYOND 32N118W AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 20N140W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE COVERING MOST OF THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 120W AND N OF
25N E OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 14N128W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT…ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N108W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. DOUGLAS AND T.S. XXX. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N E OF 81W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 17N E OF 125. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL WATERS TODAY…BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT S OF 04N
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. GAP WINDS…

$$
DGS

 

WTPZ25 KNHC 302045
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT……. 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 104.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.6N 104.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N 105.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 104.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 105.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 104.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Eastern Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Depression CHRISTINA 03E 151600Z nr 20.2N 113.3W, moving NW at 5 knots (JTWC) – Updated 150614 1725z

Post-Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINA 03E

09/6/2014 to 15/6/2014

Weather Underground

(Image: wunderground.com) Post-Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINA (Click image for source)

National Hurricane Center

National Weather Service

 

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

WTPZ33 KNHC 151432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014

…CRISTINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.1N 113.3W
ABOUT 290 MI…470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 113.3
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6
MPH…9 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST…AND
CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0314.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 20.0N 113.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 113.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 20.6N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z — 21.3N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 22.0N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 23.0N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 113.3W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 137 NM
NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z.
//
NNNN

 

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

WTPZ23 KNHC 151431
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.3N 115.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.0N 116.6W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN

FZPN03 KNHC 151533
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 3.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 17.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA NEAR 20.1N 113.3W 1004 MB AT 1500
UTC JUN 15 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 30 NM SW WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CRISTINA NEAR 21.3N
115.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 60 NM
N AND 15 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CRISTINA NEAR 23.0N
116.6W. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.S OF 10N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 08N TO 10N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15…

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N78W TO 06N82W TO 09N90W TO 07N100W TO
09N108W. ITCZ FROM 07N115W TO 08N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
05N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM
S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 125W.

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

METAREA XII

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Eastern Pacific/Mexico: Tropical Cyclone developing. Invest 94E 091400Z nr 15.9N 102.3W, moving NW at 3 knots (JTWC) – Updated 090614 1700z

THIS IS OUT OF DATE NOW, NO LONGER VALID

GO HERE https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/06/12/eastern-pacificmexico-hurricane-christina-cat4-03e-121230z-nr-16-4n-106-9w-moving-wnw-at-7-knots-intensifying-nhc-updated-120614-1400z/

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (Invest 94E)

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH  –JTWC

HIGH CHANCE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO – NHC

MEXICO BEWARE!

Weather Underground

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Last Updated 09/06/2014, 13:00:00 (GMT Standard Time)
Location 15.9 102.3W Movement NW at 5 mph
Wind 45KPH

National Hurricane Center

National Weather Service

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low pressure system located about 150 miles south-southwest of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and this system will likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

AXPZ20 KNHC 091535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURE…

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 16N102W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NW AT 5 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LOW…AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 06N89W THEN CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 16N102W TO 10N120W TO
09N128W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N128W TO 08N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR 16N102W DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE…SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS E
OF 85W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 88W.

…DISCUSSION…
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 21N116W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHEASTWARD…PARALLELING THE COAST FROM CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE IT MOVES INLAND. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ASSISTING IN
LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY…WITH VALUES OVER 2.25
INCHES SPANNING THE COASTAL REGION FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO
MANZANILLO. THIS MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

VERTICAL LIFT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE THE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION…SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SW OF THE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THE UPPER RIDGE
LOCATION IS EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS…KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS.

AT THE SURFACE…A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR
40N142W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N134W TO 20N120W.
TRADE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE S OF THE
RIDGE AXIS…WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE FOUND N OF THE
RIDGE AXIS W OF 125W WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONG. SEAS TO 10
FT CAN BE FOUND OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TUE…SHIFTING N-NE WED AS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD.
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING 8 FT SEAS AS FAR S AS 21N BY WED
MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-19 SECOND RANGE
HAS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE MAINLAND COASTLINE THIS MORNING. A NEW
BATCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS REACHED THE EQUATOR W OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LOOK FOR SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE
OVER CENTRAL WATERS S OF 01N THROUGH WED MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER

 

Other Reports

NASA’s Hurricane: (Mon 9 June 2014 1749 UTC) EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN – System 94E is rapidly developing- The National Hurricane Center noted that System 94 E is now a well-defined low pressure system and is located about 150 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo,Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for continued development, and this system will likely become a tropical depression later this afternoon or tonight.
The low is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, which, NHC noted, will keep the strongest winds away from the coast of southwestern Mexico.

This GOES West satellite imagery from 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) shows System 94E off the southwestern coast of Mexico.

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep9414.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/94E_091500sair.jpg

WTPN21 PHNC 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N 101.6W TO 16.9N 106.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
091400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N
102.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.1W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.3W, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG SOUTEASTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101500Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

000
FZPN03 KNHC 091535
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC MON JUN 09 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 3.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 09.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 10.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED JUN 11.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 16N102W 1007 MB MOVING NW 5 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
17N104W 1003 MB. WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
17N107W 1002 MB. WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER AND 45 NM
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 FT.

.S OF 02N BETWEEN 93W AND 127W AND S OF 01S BETWEEN 83W AND 93W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01N BETWEEN 93W AND 120W AND S OF 01S
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01N BETWEEN 97W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL.

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO
10 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N BETWEEN 123W AND 136W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W N WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N BETWEEN 124W AND
138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF
21N W OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 21N131W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1415 UTC MON JUN 09…
.SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM SW OF COAST BETWEEN 88W AND
92W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N89W THEN
CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 16N102W TO 10N120W TO 09N128W. ITCZ AXIS
FROM 09N128W TO 08N140W. LOW PRES NEAR 16N102W…NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 180 NM N
OF AXIS E OF 88W.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

 

METAREA XII

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Depression (Ex TS BORIS) 02E 041000Z nr 16.3N 93.8W, moving N at 5 knots (JTWC) – Updated 040614 1251z

Tropical Depression 02E (TWO-E)

BORIS WEAKENS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SOAK EASTERN MEXICO(NHC)

(Desplcese hacia abajo para la traduccin española) (Scroll down for Spanish translation)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 040831
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
200 AM PDT WED JUN 04 2014

BORIS WEAKENS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SOAK EASTERN MEXICO
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT0900 UTCINFORMATION
-
LOCATION16.2N 93.9W
ABOUT 85 MI140 KM E OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS35 MPH55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENTN OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE1003 MB29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREAPLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

AT 200 AM PDT0900 UTCTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTHLONGITUDE 93.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH7 KM/HAND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACKTHE DEPRESION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH55
KM/HWITH HIGHER GUSTS. BORIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
-
RAINFALLBORIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL
BRING ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 20 INCHES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPORTS FROM
THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE INDICATE THAT THE CITY OF TONALA ON
THE COAST OF CHIAPAS RECIEVED NEAR 8.5 INCHES213 MMOF RAIN
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0214.gif

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BORIS) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
040600Z NEAR 16.0N 93.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 93.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z 17.0N 93.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z 18.0N 93.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 93.8W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BORIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEHUANTEPEC, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
//
NNNN

 

Other

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 Jun, 2014 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression BORIS (02E) currently located near 16.2 N 93.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

NASA Hurricane:

E. PACIFIC *Full Update* NASA Infrared Imagery Sees Heavy Rain Potential in Tropical Depression 2E
NASAs Aqua satellite captured an infrared image of Tropical Depression 2E that revealed high, very cold cloud top temperatures.FULL STORY/WARNINGS:
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/93e-eastern-pacific-ocean-june-2014

MARITIME

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0830

WTPZ22 KNHC 040830
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
0900 UTC WED JUN 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEATCENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 93.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 93.7WPOST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KTGUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.0N 93.5WPOST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KTGUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800ZDISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

 

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http%3A//www.passageweather.com/maps/npacific/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

SPANISH

Depresin Tropical 02E ( TWO -E)

……… BORIS DEBILITA PERO SEGUIR REMOJO ORIENTAL MEXICO ……… ( NHC )

( Desplcese HACIA abajo prr la traduccin española ) ( Desplcese hacia abajo para la traduccin española )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Previsin de 5 das ( clic en la imagen para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Satlite ( clic en la imagen para la fuente )

Servicio Meteorolgico Nacional

Centro Nacional de Huracanes

[ Imagen de la prediccin de 5 das de la pista prevista, y las zonas costeras bajo una advertencia o un reloj ]

000
WTPZ32 TJSJ 040831
TCPEP2

BOLETN
DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP022014
200 AM PDT MIRCOLES 04 de junio 2014

… BORIS DEBILITA PERO SEGUIR REMOJO ORIENTAL MEXICO …
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … INFORMACIN
—————-
UBICACIN … 16,2 N 93.9W
ACERCA DE MI 85 … 140 KM E DE SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 35 MPH … 55 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … N O 360 GRADOS A 5 MPH … 7 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS
RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——-
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DEJADO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ADVERTENCIAS .

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

NO HAY COSTERA RELOJES O ADVERTENCIA EN EFECTO .

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR DE
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA .
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS 48 HORAS
———-
A LAS 200 AM PDT … 0900 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS
ESTABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.2 NORTE … LONGITUD 93.9 OESTE .
LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH … 7 KM / H … Y
SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24
HORAS . EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA … EL DEPRESION CONTINUARA MOVIENDOSE
INLAND MS LEJOS .

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 35 MPH … 55
KM / H … CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES . BORIS SE ESPERA PARA SER
BAJA REMANENTE TARDE HOY .
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
——–
LLUVIA … BORIS SE PREV QUE PRODUZCA CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA
DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS SOBRE LA
Estados mexicanos de Oaxaca y Chiapas . ESTAS LLUVIAS adicionales sern
TRAER AISLADAS CANTIDADES TOTALES DE TORMENTA a tanto como 20 PULGADAS …
Especialmente en los terrenos ms altos . ESTAS LLUVIAS POSIBLEMENTE
RESULTADO EN INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO . INFORMES DE
EL SERVICIO DE TIEMPO MEXICANA INDICAN QUE LA CIUDAD DE TONALA EN
LA COSTA DE CHIAPAS RECIBIDO CERCA DE 8.5 PULGADAS … 213 MM … DE LLUVIA
DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS .
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
—–
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 800 AM PDT .

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

Centro de Advertencia de Tifones Conjunto ( JTWC )

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0214.gif

Google Earth Overlay grfico

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TIFN WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVERTENCIA / /
OBS /
1 . DEPRESION TROPICAL 02E ( BORIS ) ADVERTENCIA NR 007
Rebajado de 02E TORMENTA TROPICAL
01 ACTIVO CICLON TROPICAL EN EASTPAC
Vientos mximos sostenidos en base al promedio de un minuto
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE

ADVERTENCIA POSICIN :
040600Z – CERCA 16.0N 93.9W
Los movimientos ms all de seis horas – 010 GRADOS A 05 KTS
POSICIN EXACTA EN EL PLAZO DE 040 NM
Posicin basada en el centro situado POR SATLITE
ACTUALIDAD DISTRIBUCIN DE VIENTO :
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 030 KT , KT 040 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
POSIT REPEAT: 16.0N 93.9W

Previsiones:
12 HRS , vlido en :
041800Z – 17.0N 93.7W
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 025 KT , KT 035 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
Disipando COMO UN CICLON TROPICAL RELEVANTE SOBRE TIERRA
VECTOR DE 24 HR POSIT : 010 DEG / 05 KTS

24 HRS , vlido en :
050600Z – 18.0N 93.5W
Vientos mximos sostenidos – 020 KT , KT 030 RAFAGAS
RADIOS DE VIENTO VLIDA SOBRE AGUA ABIERTA SOLAMENTE
Disipa como CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVA SOBRE TIERRA

OBSERVACIONES:
041000Z POSICIN CERCA 16.3N 93.8W .
DEPRESION TROPICAL 02E ( BORIS ) , ubicado aproximadamente a 79 NM
Este-sureste de Tehuantepec, MEXICO , ha rastreado AT 05 NUDOS
EN LOS LTIMOS SEIS HORAS.
MXIMA altura de ola significativa AT 040600Z es de 10 pies . SIGUIENTE
ADVERTENCIAS EN 041600Z , 042200Z 050400Z Y .
/ /
NNNN

otro
TSR Logone Pacfico: Alerta de tormenta emitido al 04 de junio 2014 09:00 GMT

Depresin Tropical BORIS ( 02E ) que actualmente se encuentra cerca de 16,2 N 93,9 W se prev a la huelga de la tierra a la siguiente verosimilitud ( s ) en el tiempo de espera determinado ( s ) :

Alerta Amarilla Pas ( s ) o provincia ( s )
Mxico
probabilidad de TS es del 70% en la actualidad

Tenga en cuenta que
Alerta amarilla ( elevada ) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10 % y 30 % de probabilidad , o TS a por encima de 50 % de probabilidad .
CAT 1 significa vientos de fuerza de huracn de al menos 74 mph , 119 km / ho 64 nudos de 1 minuto sostenido .
TS significa vientos de fuerza de tormenta tropical de por lo menos 39 mph , a 63 km / ho 34 nudos de 1 minuto sostenido .

Para obtener informacin de previsin grfica y ms detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

NASA Huracn:

E. PACFICO * actualizacin completa * imgenes de la NASA Infrared ve pesado Potencial Lluvia en la depresin tropical 2E
Satlite Aqua de la NASA captur una imagen infrarroja de la depresin tropical 2E que revel altos , top temperatures.FULL HISTORIA nube muy fra / ADVERTENCIAS :
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/93e-eastern-pacific-ocean-june-2014
MARTIMO
METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0830

WTPZ22 TJSJ 040830
TCMEP2

DEPRESION TROPICAL BORIS PRONSTICO / ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP022014
0900 UTC MIERCOLES 04 de junio 2014

CAMBIOS EN LOS RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DEJADO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ADVERTENCIAS .

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

NO HAY COSTERA RELOJES O ADVERTENCIA EN EFECTO .

CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 16,2 N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSICIN EXACTA dentro de 40 NM

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL HACIA EL NORTE O 360 GRADOS A 4 KT

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA 1.003 MB
Vientos mximos sostenidos de 30 KT CON RAFAGAS HASTA 40 KT .
VIENTOS Y OLEAJE varan mucho en cada cuadrante. RADIOS EN NUTICA
MILES son los radios MAYOR SE ESPERA EN CUALQUIER LUGAR EN QUE CUADRANTE .

REPETIR … CENTRO LOCALIZADO CERCA 16,2 N 93.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA 16.0N 93.9W

Pronstico vlido 04/1800Z 17.0N 93.7W … POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 25 KT … RAFAGAS 35 KT .

Pronstico vlido 05/0600Z 18.0N 93.5W … POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 20 KT … RAFAGAS 30 KT .

05/1800Z VLIDO PRONSTICO … DISIPADO
SOLICITUD DE 3 INFORMES DE BUQUES POR HORA EN 300 MILLAS DE 16,2 N 93.9W

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA EN 04/1500Z

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

PassageWeather es una pgina web de tiempo para navegar GRATIS : http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http % 3A / / http://www.passageweather.com / maps / npacific / mappage.htm

No use cualquier informacin en este sitio para las decisiones de vida o muerte . Toda la informacin se concibe como complementario a las fuentes oficiales. Por favor refirase a la pgina web la agencia meteorolgica / oficial del gobierno de su pas por las advertencias locales, avisos y boletines .

Socorro/ Clarion/ Mexico: Hurricane AMANDA (CAT3) 271000Z nr 14.2N 112.2W, moving NNW at 4 knots(JTWC) Restrengthens unexpectedly(NHC) – Updated 270514 1108Z

HURRICANE AMANDA (CAT3)

Clarion, Socorro & Mexico beware!

…AMANDA RESTRENGTHENS UNEXPECTEDLY…(NHC)

(Maritime section always at bottom of page)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

WTPZ31 KNHC 270845
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014

…AMANDA RESTRENGTHENS UNEXPECTEDLY…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.2N 112.2W
ABOUT 620 MI…995 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…954 MB…28.17 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH…205 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO RESUME SOON AND THEN CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND AMANDA SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES…150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB…28.17 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

MEXICO

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0114.gif

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 271000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (AMANDA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (AMANDA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
270600Z — NEAR 14.0N 112.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 340 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 112.1W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 14.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 15.1N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 15.8N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 16.4N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 17.5N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z — 17.5N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 17.0N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
271000Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 112.2W.
HURRICANE 01E (AMANDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z
AND 281000Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME

 

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

AXPZ20 KNHC 270930
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
HURRICANE AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 540 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING
NNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE IS OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 08N91W TO 12N103W…AND
FROM 10N114W TO 1009 LOW PRESSURE NEAR 08N127W TO 05N133W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N133W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N
BETWEEN 92W AND 96W…FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND
109W…AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.

…DISCUSSION…
ASIDE FROM THE INTRIGUE OF HURRICANE AMANDA…THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH REGARDS TO ANY SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT. HOWEVER…OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE AMANDA…TWO AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
EXISTS…ONE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WATERS AND THE OTHER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AMANDA. THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 20 KT AND
THE ASSOCIATED NE WIND WAVES ALONG WITH SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SWELL WHICH EVENTUALLY MIXES WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL GENERATED
FROM AMANDA. THE MIXED SWELL GENERATES AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS
GENERALLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 123W AND 126W AT 27/0600 UTC THAT
EXPANDS TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 120W BY EARLY
THURSDAY TO A RANGE OF MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. THE OTHER
AREA OF SEAS ABOVE 8 FT IS GENERATED FROM CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW
SWELL COMBINING WITH N-NW SWELL EMANATING FROM AMANDA.

OTHERWISE…AMANDA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 17N97W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT
FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION N OF 05N TO 25N BETWEEN 96W AND
116W…VERY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AMANDA. TO THE NW OF AMANDA…AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N125W PROVIDING A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR TO EFFECT THE STRENGTH OF THE HURRICANE.
HOWEVER…THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MOVING IN OVER THE SW CONUS BY THURSDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY /

WTPZ21 KNHC 270845
TCMEP1

HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
0900 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.8N 111.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT… 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:http://www.passageweather.com/maps/npacific/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins

Mexico: Low Pressure Area, Invest 97E, has 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours – 311013 2325z

Low Pressure Area Invest 97E

(Image: wunderground.com) Computer Models (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1100 AM PDT THU OCT 31 2013

 

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

 

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR A LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO

MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT…AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR ON

FRIDAY WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…70 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A HIGH CHANCE…80

PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

 

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS

ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT…

 

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

 

FORECASTER BERG

 

 

MARITIME

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

(Image: NHC)

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 311130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC THU OCT 31 2013

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTWHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
.LOW 40N162E 984 MB MOVING NE 25 KT AND INTENSIFYING. WITHIN 180
NM W AND NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT. ALSO
FROM 31N TO 44N W OF 172E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 46N W OF 175E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO
18 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N169E 972 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S AND 180 NM
W QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 18 TO 32 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N174E 966 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SW AND
180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 22 TO 38 FT. ALSO
FROM 36N TO 53N BETWEEN 172W AND 169E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14
TO 33 FTHIGHEST NEAR 42N175E. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 55N
BETWEEN 170W AND 167E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N172W 972 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
48N164W TO 40N172W TO 32N179W. WITHIN 300 NM E AND SE
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 32 FT. ALSO WITHIN 480
NM E AND 420 NM W SEMICIRCLESAND WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF
40N WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM
E OF ENTIRE FRONTAND WITHIN 660 NM E AND 480 NM W SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 22 FT.

GALE WARNING
.LOW 59N149W 980 MB DRIFTING NE AND WEAKENING. WITHIN 300 NM
S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM NE600 NM SE840 NM W AND SWAND 90 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N148W 1000 MB. WITHIN 540 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N149W 1013 MB. FROM 51N TO 56N BETWEEN
133W AND 147W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

GALE WARNING
.LOW 51N179W 1005 MB MOVING E 30 KT AND WEAKENING. WITHIN 300 NM
S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
42N TO 51N BETWEEN 170W AND 174E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N158W 1016 MB. FROM 43N TO 50N BETWEEN
154W AND 164W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

GALE WARNING
.LOW 44N141W 1018 MB MOVING E 10 KT. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N134W 1020 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N132W 1016 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W AND SW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N127W 1008 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NE240 NM
SWAND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE240 NM SE540 NM SWAND 300 NM
NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

GALE WARNING
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 47N154E 1000 MB. FROM 35N TO 45N
W OF 165E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 44N165E 995 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE420 NM
SWAND 180 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO
18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N170E 994 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE360 NM
SWAND 240 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO
23 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 48N W OF 179E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 160W AND 177E AREA OF E TO NE WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 540 NM W OF A LINE FROM 30N156W TO
40N143W AREA OF NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 480 NM W OF A LINE FROM 30N155W TO
40N133W AREA OF N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 180 NM OF
43N142W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 40N TO 49N BETWEEN 174W AND 174E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE FROM
51N161W TO 43N169W.

.HIGH 38N130W 1026 MB MOVING NE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 46N128W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MOVED INLAND.

.HIGH 33N143W 1028 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 37N176W 1031 MB MOVING NE 25 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 39N162W 1034 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N153W 1036 MB.

.HIGH 53N172E 1012 MB MOVING NE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N108W 1009 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESPOSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONENEAR
17N108W 1008 MB. FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESPOSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONENEAR
18N108W 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 17N106W TO
11N110W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W SW WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC THU OCT 31

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N100W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 14N108W TO 08N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 100
NM N OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 106W TO 110W AND FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN
110W AND 116W AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 121W TO 126W.

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC OCT 31 2013.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 01 2013.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 02 2013.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FRONT FROM 30N162W TO 25N174W TO 24N180E TO 23N172E. FRONT
MOVING E 10 KT N OF 28NNEARLY STATIONARY ELSEWHERE. NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT N OF FRONT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DISSIPATING FRONT FROM 30N155W TO 27N161W TO
26N176W. NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF FRONT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED. ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHED
TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS DIMINISHED TO 8 FT OR LESS.

.TROUGH FROM 30N159W TO 24N162W NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MERGED WITH FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE.

.FRONT NW OF AREA MOVING SE 15 KT. S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N
OF 29N W OF 163E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N167E TO 28N160E. ASSOCIATED
WINDS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N172E TO 26N160E.

.TROUGH FROM 02N165E TO 05N172E TO 09N177E MOVING W 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 179E
AND 170E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 03N160E TO 05N166E TO 10N168E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 04N160E TO 09N164E.

.RIDGE FROM 30N175E TO 25N160E MOVING E 20 KT AND ERODING FROM
THE W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 8 FT OR LESS.

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 167E AND
163E FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 165E AND 162EAND WITHIN 60 NM
OF A LINE FROM 18N167W TO 23N163W.

.ITCZ FROM 08N140W TO 09N159W TO 09N170W TO 07N180W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 161W AND 174W.

$$

.FORECASTER BIRCHARD. HONOLULU HI.=

 

Spanish (Translated by Google)

Mexico: Tropical Storm (17E) RAYMOND 232200Z near 15.1N 103.9W, moving WSW at 8 knots. Moving away from Guerrero and Michoacan coast – 231013 2310z

Tropical Storm 17E

 

RAYMOND

 

 

 

Tropical storm Raymond continues to move away from the coast of Guerrero and Michoacan, maintaining its slow moving toward the west-southwest.(Conagua, Mexico)

 

 

 

RAYMOND STILL WEAKENING(NHC)

 

 

 

 

 

(Scroll down for Spanish translation) (Desplcese hacia abajo para la traduccin al español)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MEXICO

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tropical storm Raymond continues to move away from the coast of Guerrero and Michoacan, maintaining its slow moving toward the west-southwest.

 

 

The dense cloud bands Raymond continue on the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and some states in the center of the country, likewise maintains high waves on coasts of those states.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning in the Pacific

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aviso Ciclón Tropical en el Pacífico

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Severe Weather Alert

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aviso de Tiempo Severo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National Weather Service

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National Hurricane Center

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

(Image: NHC) Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (Click image for source)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

View in Google
Earth (Active KML)

 

 

 

 

 

WTPZ32 KNHC 232033

 

TCPEP2

 

 

 

BULLETIN

 

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 16

 

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013

 

200 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013

 

 

 

RAYMOND STILL WEAKENING

 

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT2100 UTCINFORMATION

 

-

 

LOCATION15.0N 103.8W

 

ABOUT 280 MI450 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS50 MPH85 KM/H

 

PRESENT MOVEMENTWSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH15 KM/H

 

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE1000 MB29.53 INCHES

 

 

 

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

 

 

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

 

 

 

 

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

 

 

AT 200 PM PDT2100 UTCTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS

 

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTHLONGITUDE 103.8 WEST. RAYMOND IS

 

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH15 KM/HAND THIS

 

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

 

 

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH85

 

KM/HWITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING

 

THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES110 KM

 

FROM THE CENTER.

 

 

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB29.53 INCHES.

 

 

 

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

 

-

 

RAINFALLRAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL

 

AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO

 

15 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO. THESE RAINS COULD

 

PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

 

 

 

SURFSWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHTBUT

 

ARE STILL CAPABLE OF CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT

 

CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATIONPLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM

 

YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

 

 

 

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

 

-

 

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY800 PM PDT.

 

 

 

$$

 

FORECASTER BLAKE

 

 

 

 

 

END

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep1713.gif

 

 

 

 

WTPN31 PHNC 232200

 

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

 

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

 

RMKS/

 

1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 016

 

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

 

WARNING POSITION:

 

231800Z NEAR 15.2N 103.4W

 

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

 

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

 

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

 

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

 

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

 

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

 

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 103.4W

 

 

FORECASTS:

 

12 HRS, VALID AT:

 

240600Z 14.8N 105.0W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

 

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

 

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

 

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

 

 

24 HRS, VALID AT:

 

241800Z 14.6N 106.7W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

 

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

 

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

 

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

 

 

36 HRS, VALID AT:

 

250600Z 14.4N 108.5W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

 

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

 

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

 

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS

 

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

 

48 HRS, VALID AT:

 

251800Z 13.9N 110.5W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

 

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

 

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

 

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS

 

 

72 HRS, VALID AT:

 

261800Z 13.2N 114.2W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

 

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

 

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

 

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

 

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

 

 

96 HRS, VALID AT:

 

271800Z 13.5N 118.0W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS

 

 

120 HRS, VALID AT:

 

281800Z 15.0N 120.0W

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

 

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

 

 

REMARKS:

 

232200Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 103.9W.

 

TROPICAL STORM 17E (RAYMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM WEST-

 

SOUTHWESTWARD OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD

 

AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT

 

WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.

 

//

 

NNNN

 

 

 

 

 

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Oct, 2013 21:00 GMT

 

 

 

Hurricane RAYMOND (17E) currently located near 16.3 N 101.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

 

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 70% currently

 

 

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

 

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Reports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Raymond weakens to a tropical storm; threat diminishes for Mexico

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By: Dr. Jeff Masters,2:26 PM GMT on October 23, 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tropical Storm Raymond continues to spin just offshore of Acapulco, Mexico, but its top winds have weakened to 65 mph. As of 8 am EDT Wednesday, Raymond was stationary, and centered about 190 miles west-southwest of Acapulco. Raymond brought 7.05″ of rain Saturday through Tuesday to Acapulco. All watches and warnings have been discontinued for the coast of Mexico, but Raymond is expected to bring an additional 1 2″ of rain to the coast. Raymond is in an area with weak steering currents, but a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in later Wednesday and force the storm west-southwestwards, away from the coast. Recent satellite loops show the weakening trend of Raymond, and wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post discussing the causes.

 


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Raymond, taken at approximately 2:30 pm EDT on October 22, 2013. At the time, Raymond was a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

 

Dr. Jeff Masters

 

 

 

MARITIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

(Image: NHC) Graphicast Eastern Pacific (Click image for source)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High Seas Forecast (Tropical NE Pacific)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FZPN03 KNHC 232118

 

HSFEP2

 

 

 

HIGH SEAS FORECAST

 

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

 

2230 UTC WED OCT 23 2013

 

 

 

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

 

 

 

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTWHICH IS THE AVERAGE

 

HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE

 

MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

 

 

 

SECURITE

 

 

 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 23.

 

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU OCT 24.

 

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI OCT 25.

 

 

 

.WARNINGS.

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM WARNING

 

.TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 15.0N 103.8W 1000 MB AT 2100 UTC

 

OCT 23 MOVING WSW OR 250 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45

 

KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND

 

SE QUADRANTS60 NM NE AND 30 NM SW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR

 

GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTEREXCEPT 100 NM NW QUADRANT WITH

 

SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND WITHIN 120 NM S

 

SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 14.6N 106.7W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE

 

WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE30 NM SE AND 0 NM SW QUADRANTS.

 

SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTEREXCEPT 90 NM NW

 

QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND

 

WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS

 

8 TO 12 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 13.9N 110.5W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE

 

WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM

 

OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM NW AND

 

WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS

 

8 TO 12 FT.

 

.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 13.2N 114.2W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOKUSE FOR GUIDANCE ONLYERRORS MAY BE LARGE.

 

.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 13.5N 118.0W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

 

.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 15.0N 120.0W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

 

 

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE

 

USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACKSIZE

 

AND INTENSITY.`

 

 

 

GALE WARNING

 

.WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 14.5N95W TO 14N96W

 

INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPECN TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

 

SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

 

.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 16N94.5W TO 14N95W

 

INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPECN TO NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.

 

SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N94.5W

 

TO 14N95W TO 13.5N96.5W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE 16N94.5W TO 14N96W

 

INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPECN TO NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.

 

SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 99W

 

NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE 16N94.5W TO 13.5N95.5W

 

INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPECN TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

 

SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W

 

NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

 

 

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

 

 

 

.LOW PRES 10N124W 1010 MB. WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.

 

SEAS TO 9 FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 09.5N124W 1010 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NW

 

SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 09.5N125W 1011 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NW

 

SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

 

 

 

.FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 133W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9

 

FT IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

 

 

 

.COLD FRONT 30N138W TO 28N140W. WITHIN 150 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS

 

20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. NW OF FRONT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS

 

TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N135W TO 26N140W. WINDS 20 KT OR

 

LESS. NW OF FRONT SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N134W TO 26N140W WINDS 20 KT OR

 

LESS. N OF 27N WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONT SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN

 

MIXED NW AND SE SWELL.

 

 

 

.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT

 

OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

 

 

 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

 

 

 

CONVECTION VALID 2100 UTC WED OCT 23

 

 

 

.TROPICAL STORM RAYMONDSCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG E OF

 

CENTER WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14.5N102W TO 17N100WAND WELL

 

W OF THE CENTER WITHIN 15 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N105W TO 17N105W.

 

 

 

.LOW PRES 10N124WSCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.

 

 

 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH

 

MONSOON TROUGH 10N86W TO 09N91W TO 12N97WRESUMES FROM 12N105W

 

TO 10N108W TO 10N124W TO 09N131W. ITCZ 09N131W TO 10N140W.

 

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF LINES FROM 13N99W

 

TO 09.5N105W TO 10N111W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 11N114W TO 10N121W TO

 

08N125W TO 11N136W.

 

 

 

$$

 

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2033

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WTPZ22 KNHC 232033

 

TCMEP2

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16

 

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013

 

2100 UTC WED OCT 23 2013

 

 

 

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 103.8W AT 23/2100Z

 

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

 

 

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT

 

 

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB

 

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

 

34 KT. 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

 

12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

 

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

 

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

 

 

 

REPEATCENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 103.8W AT 23/2100Z

 

AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.4W

 

 

 

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 105.0W

 

MAX WIND 40 KTGUSTS 50 KT.

 

34 KT 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

 

 

 

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.6N 106.7W

 

MAX WIND 35 KTGUSTS 45 KT.

 

34 KT 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

 

 

 

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W

 

MAX WIND 35 KTGUSTS 45 KT.

 

34 KT 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

 

 

 

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.9N 110.5W

 

MAX WIND 35 KTGUSTS 45 KT.

 

34 KT 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

 

 

 

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W

 

MAX WIND 40 KTGUSTS 50 KT.

 

34 KT 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

 

 

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTEERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

 

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

 

 

 

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W

 

MAX WIND 50 KTGUSTS 60 KT.

 

 

 

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W

 

MAX WIND 55 KTGUSTS 65 KT.

 

 

 

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 103.8W

 

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

 

 

 

$$

 

FORECASTER BLAKE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FZPN02 KWBC 231730

 

HSFEPI

 

 

 

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII

 

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

 

1745 UTC WED OCT 23 2013

 

 

 

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE

 

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

 

 

 

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTWHICH IS THE AVERAGE

 

HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY

 

BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

 

 

 

SECURITE

 

 

 

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT

 

TO 50N 160E

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 23.

 

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 24.

 

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 25.

 

 

 

.WARNINGS.

 

 

 

STORM WARNING

 

.LOW 45N170W 977 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 120 NM NW180 NM

 

NE AND 240 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.

 

ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NW360 NM NE600 NM SE AND 1200 NM

 

SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 18 FT. ALSO FROM 30N

 

TO 50N W OF 160W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N165W 956 MB. WITHIN 300 NM N AND 240 NM

 

S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 14 TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE

 

WITHIN 600 NM N AND 720 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS

 

10 TO 20 FT. ALSO WITHIN 420 NM E OF A FRONT FROM 46N156W TO

 

39N161W TO 31N175W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST 58N169W 969 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW480 NM SE

 

AND 780 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 24 FT.

 

ELSEWHERE WITHIN 780 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO

 

16 FT.

 

 

 

GALE WARNING

 

.LOW 55N143W 997 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE

 

AND 360 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

 

ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10

 

FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED WELL INLAND AND ASSOCIATED

 

CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

 

 

GALE WARNING

 

.LOW 42N142W 999 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 480 NM S SEMICIRCLE

 

AND 360 NM NW AND 180 NM NE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9

 

TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 48N BETWEEN 134W AND 152W WINDS

 

TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 39N138W 1004 MB. WITHIN 420 NM W

 

SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 37N134W 1010 MB. FROM 30N TO 42N BETWEEN

 

127W AND 142W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

 

 

GALE WARNING

 

.LOW 55N173W 988 MB MOVING SW 10 KT. WITHIN 360 NM NW240 NM

 

SE420 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16

 

FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW 54N165W

 

DESCRIBED ABOVE.

 

 

GALE WARNING

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N172E 998 MB. WITHIN 420 NM NW AND 600

 

NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N175W 984 MB. BETWEEN 240 NM AND 600 NM

 

SW QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE

 

WITHIN 180 NM NW300 NM NE660 NM SE AND 960 NM SW QUADRANTS

 

WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 18 FT. ALSO WITHIN 1080 NM SW

 

QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

 

 

GALE WARNING

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 120 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 60N150W TO

 

57N138W E TO SE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.

 

 

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

 

 

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE FROM

 

30N TO 45N BETWEEN 160W AND 173E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH LOW 47N175W IN

 

WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

 

 

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 300 NM E OF A LINE FROM 58N142W TO

 

45N150W TO 30N166W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

 

 

 

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 48N TO 58N

 

BETWEEN 135W AND 143W AND FROM 42N TO 46N BETWEEN 166W AND 172W.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 46N TO 52N BETWEEN 151W AND

 

154W.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVED.

 

 

 

.HIGH 35N155W 1020 MB MOVING SE 10 KT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N150W 1020 MB.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N146W 1021 MB.

 

 

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 48N134W 1021 MB.

 

 

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 45N157W 1016 MB.

 

 

 

.FORECASTER HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

 

 

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

 

 

 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 23.

 

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 24.

 

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 25.

 

 

 

.WARNINGS.

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM WARNING

 

.TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 15.4N 103.0W 996 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT

 

23 MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT

 

GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE

 

QUADRANTS70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT

 

OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 100 NM NW QUADRANT WITH

 

SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF

 

CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA

 

WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.

 

SEAS TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 14.9N 105.7W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE

 

WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS60 NM NE QUADRANT AND

 

30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 100 NM N

 

SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE

 

WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS

 

8 TO 12 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 14.4N 109.0W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN

 

RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER.

 

.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 13.8N 112.5W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. EXTENDED

 

OUTLOOKUSE FOR GUIDANCE ONLYERRORS MAY BE LARGE.

 

.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 14.2N 116.2W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

 

.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND NEAR 16.0N 118.0W.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

 

 

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE

 

USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACKSIZE

 

AND INTENSITY.

 

 

 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING

 

.WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96WINCLUDING

 

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPECN TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8

 

FT.

 

.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 16N95W TO 15N95W TO

 

14N96WINCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPECN TO NE WINDS 25 TO 35

 

KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 16N95W TO 14N96W

 

INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPECN TO NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS

 

9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE 16N95W TO 14N95W TO

 

13N97W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 16N95W TO 14N95W TO

 

13N96WINCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPECN TO NE WINDS 30 TO 35

 

KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE 16N95W TO

 

14N95W TO 12N97W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

 

 

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

 

 

 

.FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT

 

IN NW SWELL.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.

 

SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL.

 

.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

 

 

 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

 

 

 

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC WED OCT 23

 

 

 

.TROPICAL STORM RAYMONDSCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN

 

140 NM E SEMICIRCLE.

 

 

 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH

 

MONSOON TROUGH 10N85W TO 11N94W THEN RESUMES FROM 12N108W TO

 

10N130W. ITCZ 10N130W TO 11N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG

 

WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 133W.

 

 

 

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI

 

NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 23 2013.

 

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 24 2013.

 

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 25 2013.

 

 

 

.WARNINGS.

 

 

 

.NONE.

 

 

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

 

 

 

.FRONT FROM 29N140W TO 23N144W TO 20N147W MOVING E SLOWLY.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED.

 

 

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N175W TO 28N175E TO 30N167E.

 

WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF 29N.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT FROM 30N165W TO 27N179W TO 30N164E.

 

WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF 28N.

 

 

 

.RIDGE FROM 30N162W TO 26N180W TO 29N160E MOVING SE 10 KT.

 

 

 

.RIDGE FROM 30N159W TO 25N155W TO 22N149W NEARLY STATIONARY.

 

 

 

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.

 

 

 

.SEAS 9 TO 11 FT W OF 163E BETWEEN 15N AND 27N.

 

.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 FT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

 

.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 9 TO 10 FT N OF 29N BETWEEN 164W AND

 

169W.

 

 

 

.SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.

 

 

 

.ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS IN AREA BOUNDED BY 18N160E 10N174E

 

13N177W 06N177W 02N168E 08N160E.

 

 

 

.ITCZ FROM 08N140W TO 07N153W TO 05N165W. ISOLATED MODERATE

 

TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 155W AND E OF 143W.

 

 

 

$$

 

 

 

.FORECASTER POWELL. HONOLULU

 

 

 

END

 

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

 

Spanish (Translated by Google)

Mxico : Tormenta Tropical ( 17E ) RAYMOND 232200Z cerca 15.1N 103.9W , movindose OSO a 8 nudos. Alejndose de Guerrero y la costa de Michoacn – 231013 2310z

Tormenta Tropical 17E

RAYMOND

La tormenta tropical ” Raymond ” contina alejndose de las costas de Guerrero y Michoacn , manteniendo su lento movimiento hacia el oeste- suroeste. ( Conagua , Mxico )

… RAYMOND STILL debilitamiento de … ( NHC )

( Desplcese hacia abajo para la traduccin española ) ( Desplcese HACIA Abajo Para La Traduccin al español )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Previsin de 5 das ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Satlite ( imagen Pica para la fuente )

MEXICO

La tormenta tropical ” Raymond ” contina alejndose de las costas de Guerrero y Michoacn , manteniendo su lento movimiento hacia el oeste- suroeste.

Las bandas de nubes densas ” Raymond ” continan en los estados de Guerrero, Michoacn y algunos estados del centro del pas , as mismo mantiene altas olas en las costas de los estados.

Advertencia cicln tropical en el Pacfico

Aviso Ciclón Tropical en el Paca – fico

Alerta climtica grave

Aviso de Tiempo Severo

EE.UU.

Servicio Meteorolgico Nacional

Centro Nacional de Huracanes

[ Imagen de la prediccin de 5 das y las zonas costeras bajo una advertencia o un reloj ]

(Imagen: NHC ) Relojes / advertencias costeras y 5 das Cono de Storm Center ( Pulsar la imagen para la fuente)

Ver en Google
Tierra (Active KML )

WTPZ32 TJSJ 232033

TCPEP2

BOLETN

TORMENTA TROPICAL RAYMOND ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16

NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP172013

200 PM PDT MIRCOLES 23 de octubre 2013

… RAYMOND STILL debilitamiento de …

RESUMEN DE LAS 200 PM PDT … 2100 UTC … INFORMACIN

—————-

UBICACIN … 15.0N 103.8W

ACERCA DE MI 280 … 450 KM S DE MANZANILLO MEXICO

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 50 MPH … 85 KM / H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … WSW O 250 GRADOS A 9 MPH … 15 KM / H

PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1000 MB … 29.53 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS

——-

NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO .

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS

———-

A LAS 200 PM PDT … 2100 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Raymond

LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.0 NORTE … LONGITUD 103.8 OESTE . RAYMOND ES

MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE -SUROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH … 15 KM / H … Y ESTE

MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA HASTA EL VIERNES .

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 50 MPH … 85

KM / H … CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL SE ESPERA DURANTE

LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS .

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS … 110 KM

DESDE EL CENTRO .

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB … 29.53 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA

——–

LLUVIA … RAYMOND SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA LLUVIAS ADICIONALES

DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE HASTA

15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL ESTADO MEXICANO DE GUERRERO . ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN

PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO .

SURF … MAREJADAS GENERADOS POR RAYMOND DEBE DISMINUIR DURANTE LA NOCHE … PERO

Son todava capaces de causar SURF mortal y corriente de resaca

CONDICIONES . PARA MS INFORMACIN … CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS DE

SU SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO NACIONAL .

SIGUIENTE AVISO

—–

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 800 PM PDT .

$ $

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE

FIN

Warning Center del tifn comn ( JTWC )

Google Earth Grfico Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 232200

MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /

SUBJ / CICLN TROPICAL ADVERTENCIA / /

OBS /

1 . TORMENTA TROPICAL 17E ( RAYMOND ) ADVERTENCIA NR 016

01 ACTIVE CICLON TROPICAL EN EASTPAC

Vientos mximos sostenidos basado en el promedio de un minuto

Radio de los vientos VLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

ADVERTENCIA POSICIN :

15.2N 103.4W CERCA – 231800Z

MOVIMIENTO LTIMOS SEIS HORAS – 250 GRADOS A 08 KTS

POSICIN una precisin de 015 NM

Posicin basada en el centro situado POR SATLITE

DISTRIBUCION ACTUAL DEL VIENTO :

Vientos mximos sostenidos – 045 KT , rfagas de 055 KT

Radio de los vientos VLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

RADIO DE VIENTOS KT 034 – 060 NM cuadrante noreste

050 NM cuadrante sureste

030 NM cuadrante suroeste

050 NM cuadrante noroeste

REPETIR POSIT : 15.2N 103.4W

Previsiones:

12 HRS , vlido en :

240600Z – 14.8N 105.0W

Vientos mximos sostenidos – 040 KT , rfagas de 050 KT

Radio de los vientos VLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

RADIO DE VIENTOS KT 034 – 050 NM cuadrante noreste

030 NM cuadrante sureste

020 NM cuadrante suroeste

040 NM cuadrante noroeste

VECTOR DE 24 POSIT HR: 265 º / 08 KTS

24 HRS , vlido en :

241800Z – 14.6N 106.7W

Vientos mximos sostenidos – 035 KT , rfagas de 045 KT

Radio de los vientos VLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

RADIO DE VIENTOS 034 KT – 040 NM cuadrante noreste

030 NM cuadrante sureste

000 NM cuadrante suroeste

040 NM cuadrante noroeste

VECTOR DE 36 HR POSIT : 265 º / 09 KTS

36 HRS , vlido en :

250600Z – 14.4N 108.5W

Vientos mximos sostenidos – 035 KT , rfagas de 045 KT

Radio de los vientos VLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

RADIO DE VIENTOS 034 KT – 040 NM cuadrante noreste

030 NM cuadrante sureste

000 NM cuadrante suroeste

040 NM cuadrante noroeste

VECTOR DE 48 POSIT HR: 255 º / 10 KTS

Perspectiva extendida :

48 HRS , vlido en :

251800Z – 13.9N 110.5W

Vientos mximos sostenidos – 035 KT , rfagas de 045 KT

Radio de los vientos VLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

RADIO DE VIENTOS 034 KT – 040 NM cuadrante noreste

030 NM cuadrante sureste

000 NM cuadrante suroeste

040 NM cuadrante noroeste

VECTOR DE 72 POSIT HR: 260 º / 09 KTS

72 HRS , vlido en :

261800Z – 13.2N 114.2W

Vientos mximos sostenidos – 040 KT , rfagas de 050 KT

Radio de los vientos VLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

RADIO DE VIENTOS KT 034 – 050 NM cuadrante noreste

030 NM cuadrante sureste

020 NM cuadrante suroeste

040 NM cuadrante noroeste

VECTOR DE 96 POSIT HR: 275 grados / 09 KTS

PERSPECTIVAS A LARGO ALCANCE :

96 HRS , vlido en :

271800Z – 13.5N 118.0W

Vientos mximos sostenidos – 050 KT , rfagas de 065 KT

Radio de los vientos VLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

VECTOR DE 120 POSIT HR: 310 º / 06 KTS

120 HRS , vlido en :

281800Z – 15.0N 120.0W

Vientos mximos sostenidos – 055 KT , rfagas de 070 KT

Radio de los vientos VLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

OBSERVACIONES :

POSICIN 232200Z CERCA 15.1N 103.9W .

TORMENTA TROPICAL 17E (Raymond ) , situado a unos 224 NM OESTE-

SUROESTE DE ACAPULCO , MEXICO , ha rastreado OESTE- SUROESTE

A 08 NUDOS EN LOS LTIMOS SEIS HORAS.

MXIMO altura de ola significativa AT 231800Z es de 20 pies . SIGUIENTE

ADVERTENCIAS EN 240400Z , 241000Z , 241600Z 242200Z Y .

/ /

NNNN

TSR Logone Pacfico: Alerta de Tormenta emitido al 22 de octubre 2013 21:00 GMT

Huracn RAYMOND ( 17E ) Actualmente se encuentra cerca de 16.3 N 101.9 W se prev una huelga tierra a la siguiente verosimilitud ( s ) en el tiempo de espera determinado ( s ) :

Yellow Country Alert ( s ) o provincia ( s )
Mxico
probabilidad de TS es de 70 % en la actualidad

Tenga en cuenta que
Alerta amarilla ( elevada ) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10 % y 30 % de probabilidad, o TS a por encima de 50 % de probabilidad.
CAT 1 significa vientos de huracn de fuerza de por lo menos 74 mph , 119 km / ho 64 nudos 1 -min sostenida.
TS significa tormenta tropical vientos de fuerza de por lo menos 39 mph , de 63 km / ho 34 nudos 1 -min sostenida.

Para obtener informacin sobre el pronstico grfica y ms detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Otros informes

Raymond se debilita a tormenta tropical , amenaza disminuye de Mxico

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Por : Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:26 GMT del 23 de octubre 2013

” La tormenta tropical Raymond contina girando cerca de la costa de Acapulco, Mxico , pero sus vientos se han debilitado a 65 mph. A partir del 08 a.m. EDT Mircoles , Raymond era estacionaria , y se centra alrededor de 190 millas al oeste -suroeste de Acapulco. Raymond trajo 7.05 ” de la lluvia de sbado a martes a Acapulco. Todas las alertas y advertencias se han suspendido para la costa de Mxico , pero se espera que Raymond traer un 1 – 2 ” de la lluvia de la costa. Raymond est en una zona con corrientes dbiles de direccin , pero se prev una cresta de alta presin para construir ms tarde el mircoles y la fuerza de la tormenta hacia el suroeste – oeste , lejos de la costa. Bucles satelitales recientes muestran la tendencia a la reduccin de Raymond y wunderblogger Lee Grenci tiene un mensaje nuevo discutiendo las causas.

Figura 3 . Imagen satelital MODIS del huracn Raymond , tomada aproximadamente a las 2:30 pm EDT del 22 de octubre de 2013. En ese momento, Raymond era un huracn de categora 1 , con vientos de 75 mph . Crdito de la imagen : NASA .

” – Dr. Jeff Masters

MARTIMO

Graphicast Pacfico Oriental

(Imagen: NHC ) Graphicast Pacfico Oriental ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

High Seas Pronstico (Tropical NE del Pacfico )

FZPN03 TJSJ 232118

HSFEP2

ALTA MAR PRONOSTICO

NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL

2230 UTC MIERCOLES 23 de octubre 2013

SUSTITUIDO POR EXPEDICIN AL LADO DE 6 HORAS

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio

ALTURA DE LA MS ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuales pueden ser

Ms del doble de altura de ola significativa .

Scurit

E PACIFICO DEL ECUADOR PARA 30N E DE 140W .

SINOPSIS VLIDO 1800 UTC : Mie Oct 23.

24 HOUR 1800 UTC Pronstico vlido Jue Oct 24.

48 HOUR 1800 UTC Pronstico vlido vie 25 de octubre .

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 15.0N 103.8W 1.000 MB a 2100 UTC

23 de octubre MUEVE WSW O 250 GRADOS A 8 KT . Los vientos mximos sostenidos de 45

RAFAGAS DE 55 KT KT . LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DE 50 NM NO Y

CUADRANTES SE … 60 NM NE y SW 30 NM cuadrantes. SEAS 12 pies o

MAYOR PLAZO DE 90 NM DE CENTRO … EXCEPTO 100 NM NO CON CUADRANTE

SEAS A 17 FT . Otro punto de 150 NM N Y DENTRO DE 120 NM S

Semicrculos DE VIENTOS DEL CENTRO DE 20 A 33 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 12 FT.

0.24 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 14.6N 106.7W .

Vientos sostenidos mximos de 35 RAFAGAS DE 45 KT KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL

VIENTOS EN 40 NM N semicrculo … 30 NM SE Y 0 NM SW cuadrantes.

SEAS 12 pies o ms dentro de 75 NM del centro … excepto 90 NM NW

CUADRANTE DE MAR A 16 FT . Otro punto de 240 NM NO Y

DENTRO DE 150 NM SE semicrculos DE VIENTOS DEL CENTRO DE 20 A 33 KT . SEAS

8 A 12 FT .

0.48 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 13.9N 110.5W .

Vientos sostenidos mximos de 35 RAFAGAS DE 45 KT KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL

VIENTO A 30 mn del centro . SEAS 12 pies o ms DENTRO DE 60 NM

DE CENTRO CON OLEAJE A 15 FT . Otro punto de 210 NM NO Y

DENTRO DE 150 NM SE semicrculos DE VIENTOS DEL CENTRO DE 20 A 33 KT . SEAS

8 A 12 FT .

0.72 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 13.2N 114.2W .

Vientos sostenidos mximos de 40 RAFAGAS DE 50 KT KT .

Perspectiva extendida … USO DE DIRECCIN SOLAMENTE … Los errores pueden ser grandes.

0.96 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 13.5N 118.0W .

Vientos sostenidos mximos de 50 RAFAGAS DE 60 KT KT .

0.120 HORAS DE PREVISIN DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 15.0N 120.0W .

Vientos sostenidos mximos de 55 RAFAGAS DE 65 KT KT .

VIENTOS DE PREDICCIN EN Y CERCA DE CICLONES TROPICALES activa debe

Usar con precaucin debido a la incertidumbre en TRAYECTORIA … TAMAÑO

E intensidad. ‘

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …

. DENTRO DE 45 NM DE UNA LNEA DE 16N94.5W A 14.5N95W A 14N96W …

Incluyendo el Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL VIENTO NE 20 A 30 KT .

OLEAJE DE 8 A 11 FT .

0.06 HORA PREVISTA EN 30 nm de una 16N94.5W LINEA 14N95W …

Incluyendo el Golfo de Tehuantepec … N a NE VIENTOS DE 25 A 35 KT .

MARES 10 A 13 FT. Otro punto de 60 NM de la lnea DE 16N94.5W

A 14N95W A 13.5N96.5W N AL VIENTO NE 20 A 25 KT . SEAS A 10 FT .

0.24 HORA PREVISTA EN 45 nm de una 16N94.5W LINEA 14N96W …

Incluyendo el Golfo de Tehuantepec … N a NE VIENTOS DE 25 A 35 KT .

OLEAJE DE 11 A 14 FT . OTRO DE 11N A 15N ENTRE 94W Y 99W

NORESTE HASTA E VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT . SEAS A 11 FT .

0.48 HORA PREVISTA EN 45 nm de una 16N94.5W LINEA 13.5N95.5W …

Incluyendo el Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL VIENTO NE 20 A 30 KT .

OLEAJE DE 9 A 13 FT. OTRO DE 10N A 14N ENTRE 94W Y 101W

NORESTE HASTA E VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 11 FT .

. SINOPSIS Y PRONSTICO .

BAJA PRES . 10N124W 1010 MB. Dentro de los 150 Nm de vientos bajos 20 A 25 KT .

SEAS A 9 FT .

0.24 hora Pronstico PRES BAJO 09.5N124W 1010 MB . DENTRO DE 90 NM NW

Semicrculo de vientos bajos NE 20 A 25 KT . SEAS A 9 FT .

0.48 hora Pronstico PRES BAJO 09.5N125W 1011 MB . DENTRO DE 90 NM NW

Semicrculo de vientos bajos NE 20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE A 8 FT .

. DE 08N A 18N W DE 133W CON VIENTO NE E 20 A 25 KT . SEAS A 9

FT EN MEZCLA Y NO SE hincharse.

0.24 hora Pronstico VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

. COLD FRONT 30N138W A 28N140W . DENTRO DE 150 NM E DE VIENTO SW DELANTEROS

20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE A 8 FT . NO DE VIENTOS DELANTEROS 20 kt o inferior . SEAS

A 8 FT PRINCIPALMENTE EN MEZCLA Y NO SE hincharse.

0.24 hora Pronstico COLD 30N135W FRENTE AL 26N140W . VIENTOS 20 kt o

MENOS . NO SEAS DE FRENTE A LAS 8 FT PRINCIPALMENTE EN MEZCLA Y NO SE hincharse.

0.48 hora Pronstico COLD 30N134W FRENTE AL VIENTO 26N140W 20 kt o

MENOS . N DE 27N en los 120 Nm de SEAS FRENTE A 8 FT PRINCIPALMENTE EN

MEZCLA Y NO SE hincharse.

0.36 HORA PREVISTA DE 07N A 09N ENTRE 105W 112W Y VIENTOS 20 KT

O MENOS . OLEAJE A 8 FT PRINCIPALMENTE EN MEZCLA Y NO SE hincharse.

0.48 hora Pronstico POCO CAMBIO .

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

CONVECCIN VLIDO 2100 UTC MIERCOLES 23 de octubre …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL RAYMOND … DISPERSOS MODERADA A FUERTE DE E

CENTRO DENTRO DE 90 NM DE LNEA DE 14.5N102W A 17N100W … Y BIEN

W DEL CENTRO DENTRO DE 15 NM DE UNA LNEA DE 15N105W A 17N105W .

. BAJA PRES 10N124W … DISPERSOS MODERADO EN 120 NM DE CENTRO .

. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCIA ZONE / vaguada monznica …

Vaguada monznica 10N86W A 09N91W A 12N97W … tras un tiempo de 12N105W

A 10N108W A 10N124W A 09N131W . ITCZ 09N131W A 10N140W .

DISPERSADAS MODERADA FUERTE aislado dentro de 60 NM de lneas desde 13N99W

A 09.5N105W A 10N111W Y OTRA DE 11N114W 10N121W A A

08N125W A 11N136W .

$ $

. PRONOSTICADOR NELSON . CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES .

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2033

WTPZ22 TJSJ 232033

TCMEP2

TORMENTA TROPICAL RAYMOND PRONSTICO / ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16

NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP172013

2100 UTC MIERCOLES 23 de octubre 2013

NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO .

CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA CERCA 15.0N 103.8W AT 23/2100Z

POSICIN EXACTA PLAZO DE 15 NM

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL HACIA LOS GRADOS OESTE- SUROESTE O 250 EN 8 KT

PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA 1000 MB

Vientos mximos sostenidos de 45 KT CON RAFAGAS HASTA 55 KT .

34 KT ……. 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW .

12 SEAS FT .. 90NE 90SE 90SW 100NW .

VIENTO Y OLEAJE varan mucho en cada cuadrante. RADIOS EN NUTICA

MILES SON LOS RADIOS DE ESPERA MS GRANDE EN CUALQUIER LUGAR EN QUE cuadrante.

REPEAT … CENTRO UBICADO CERCA 15.0N 103.8W AT 23/2100Z

AT 23/1800Z CENTER ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA 15.2N 103.4W

Pronstico vlido 24/0600Z 14.8N 105.0W

MAX WIND 40 KT … RAFAGAS DE 50 KT .

34 KT … 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW .

Pronstico vlido 24/1800Z 14.6N 106.7W

MAX WIND 35 KT … RAFAGAS DE 45 KT .

34 KT … 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW .

Pronstico vlido 25/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W

MAX WIND 35 KT … RAFAGAS DE 45 KT .

34 KT … 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW .

Pronstico vlido 25/1800Z 13.9N 110.5W

MAX WIND 35 KT … RAFAGAS DE 45 KT .

34 KT … 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW .

Pronstico vlido 26/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W

MAX WIND 40 KT … RAFAGAS DE 50 KT .

34 KT … 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW .

Perspectiva extendida . NOTA … ERRORES DE PISTA han promediado CERCA DE 150 NM

El da 4 y 175 NM en el da 5 … Y CERCA DE INTENSIDAD 15 KT CADA DA

PERSPECTIVAS VLIDO 27/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W

MAX WIND 50 KT … RAFAGAS DE 60 KT .

PERSPECTIVAS VLIDO 28/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W

MAX WIND 55 KT … RAFAGAS DE 65 KT .

SOLICITUD DE 3 INFORMES DEL BUQUE POR HORA EN 300 MILLAS DE 15.0N 103.8W

SIGUIENTE AVISO EN 24/0300Z

$ $

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1730

FZPN02 KWBC 231730

HSFEPI

ALTA MAR pronstico para METAREA XII

NWS MAR CENTRO DE PREDICCIONES WASHINGTON DC

1745 UTC MIERCOLES 23 de octubre 2013

CCODE / 1:31:12:01:00 / AOW + POR / NWS / CCODE

SUSTITUIDO POR EXPEDICIN AL LADO DE 6 HORAS

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio

ALTURA DE LA MS ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuo puede

Ser ms que dos veces la altura de ola significante .

Scurit

PACFICO N DE 30N Y S DE 67N E DE UNA LNEA DE BERING STRAIT

A 50N 160E

SINOPSIS VLIDO 1200 UTC 23 de octubre .

24 HORAS Pronstico vlido 1200 UTC 24 de octubre .

Pronstico de 48 horas vlido a las 1200 UTC 25 de octubre .

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… AVISO DE TORMENTA …

BAJA . 45N170W 977 MB MOVIMIENTO NE 25 KT . DENTRO DE 120 NM NO … 180 NM

NE y 240 NM cuadrantes VIENTOS SE 40 A 55 KT . SEAS 10 a 20 pies .

Otro punto de 300 NM NO … 360 … 600 NE NM NM SE Y 1200 NM

SW CUADRANTES VIENTOS DEL 25 AL 40 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 18 FT . TAMBIN DE 30N

A 50N W DE VIENTO 160W A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 14 FT .

0.24 hora Pronstico BAJOS 54N165W 956 MB . DENTRO DE 300 NM N y 240 NM

S semicrculos VIENTO DEL 45 AL 60 KT . OLEAJE DE 14 A 26 FT . EN OTRA PARTE

DENTRO DE 600 NM N y 720 NM S semicrculos VIENTOS 35 A 45 KT . SEAS

10 a 20 pies . TAMBIN EN 420 NM E DE UN FRENTE DE 46N156W A

39N161W A 31N175W VIENTOS DE 25 A 35 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 16 FT .

0.48 hora Pronstico 58N169W 969 MB . DENTRO DE 300 NM NO … 480 NM SE

Y 780 NM SW CUADRANTES VIENTOS DE 30 A 45 KT . OLEAJE DE 11 A 24 FT .

Otro punto de 780 NM cuadrante SE VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A

16 FT .

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …

BAJA . 55N143W 997 MB MOVIMIENTO NE 20 KT . DENTRO DE 240 NM N SEMICIRCULO

Y 360 NM SE CUADRANTES VIENTOS DE 25 A 40 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 13 FT.

Otro punto de 300 NM SW CUADRANTE VIENTO A 25 KT . SEAS A 10

FT .

0.24 hora Pronstico BAJA movi bien INTERIOR Y ASOCIADOS

CONDICIONES disminuido.

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …

. BAJA 42N142W 999 MB SE MUEVE 10 KT . DENTRO DE 480 NM S SEMICRCULO

Y 360 NM NW y 180 NM NE cuadrantes VIENTOS DE 25 A 40 KT . SEAS 9

A 18 FT . OTRO DE 30N A 48N ENTRE 134W 152W Y VIENTOS

A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 13 FT.

0.24 hora Pronstico BAJA 39N138W 1004 MB . DENTRO DE 420 NM W

SEMICIRCULO VIENTOS DE 25 A 35 KT . OLEAJE DE 10 A 18 FT .

0.48 hora Pronstico BAJOS 37N134W 1010 MB . DE 30N A 42N ENTRE

127W 142W Y VIENTOS DE HASTA 25 KT . SEAS A 10 FT .

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …

. BAJA 55N173W 988 MB MUEVE SW 10 KT . DENTRO DE 360 NM NO … 240 NM

SE … 420 NM NE y SW CUADRANTES VIENTOS DE 25 A 40 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 16

FT .

0.24 HORAS BAJO Y CONDICIONES BAJO absorbida por 54N165W PRONSTICO

DESCRITO ANTERIORMENTE.

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …

0.24 hora Pronstico BAJOS 48N172E 998 MB . DENTRO DE 420 NM NO Y 600

NM SW CUADRANTES VIENTOS DE 25 A 35 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 16 FT .

0.48 hora Pronstico BAJOS 47N175W 984 MB . Entre 240 nm y 600 nm

SW CUADRANTE VIENTOS DEL 35 AL 45 KT . MARES 10 A 21 FT. EN OTRA PARTE

DENTRO DE 180 NM NO … 300 … 660 NE NM NM SE y 960 NM SW CUADRANTES

VIENTOS DE 25 A 35 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 18 FT . TAMBIN EN 1080 NM SW

VIENTOS DEL CUADRANTE DE 25 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …

0.48 HORA PREVISTA EN 120 MN NE DE UNA LNEA DE 60N150W A

57N138W E AL VIENTO SE 25 A 40 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 15 FT.

. SINOPSIS Y PRONSTICO .

0.24 hora Pronstico excepto como se indica en las advertencias SECCIN DE ARRIBA

30N A 45N ENTRE 160W Y 173E VIENTO A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 14 FT .

0.48 CONDICIONES DE PREDICCIN HORA descrito con 47N175W BAJA EN

ADVERTENCIAS seccin anterior.

0.48 HORA PREVISTA EN 300 NM E DE UNA LNEA DE 58N142W A

45N150W AL VIENTO 30N166W 20 A 30 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 13 FT.

. Densa niebla. VSBY OCASIONALMENTE menor que 1 nm DE 48N A 58N

ENTRE 135W Y 143 W Y DE 42N A 46N ENTRE 166W Y 172W .

0.24 hora Pronstico densa niebla DE 46N A 52N ENTRE 151W Y

154W .

0.48 CONDICIONES Hora del pronstico mejorado.

ALTA . 35N155W 1020 MB MOVIMIENTO SE 10 KT .

0.24 hora Pronstico HIGH 34N150W 1020 MB .

0.48 hora Pronstico ALTA 33N146W 1021 MB .

0.48 hora Pronstico ALTA 48N134W 1021 MB .

0.48 hora Pronstico ALTA 45N157W 1016 MB .

HOLLEY . PRONOSTICADOR . OCANO Centro de Prediccin .

CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL

E PACIFICO DEL ECUADOR PARA 30N E DE 140W .

SINOPSIS VLIDO 1200 UTC : Mie Oct 23.

24 HOUR 1200 UTC Pronstico vlido Jue Oct 24.

Pronstico de 48 horas vlido a las 1200 UTC vie 25 de octubre .

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 15.4N 103.0W 996 MB a 1500 UTC octubre

23 MUDANZAS WSW O 255 GRADOS A 7 KT . Vientos sostenidos mximos de 50 KT

RAFAGAS DE 60 KT . LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DE 60 NM NW y SE

CUADRANTES … 70 NM cuadrante NE Y 40 NM SW cuadrante. SEAS 12 FT

O MAYOR PLAZO DE 90 NM DEL CENTRO CON EXCEPCIN 100 NM NO CON CUADRANTE

SEAS a 20 pies . OTRA MS DE AGUAS DE PREDICCIN EN 90 nm de

CENTRO DE VIENTOS DE 20 A 33 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 11 FT . RESTO DEL AREA

DENTRO DE 150 NM NW y 120 NM SE semicrculos VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior .

SEAS A 10 PIES EN UNA MEZCLA DE AMPLIO hincharse.

0.24 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 14.9N 105.7W .

Vientos sostenidos mximos de 45 RAFAGAS DE 55 KT KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL

VIENTOS EN 50 NM NO SE … Y CUADRANTES 60 NM NE QUADRANT Y

30 NM SW cuadrante. SEAS 12 pies o ms a menos de 100 NM N

Semicrculo y 90 NM S semicrculo con aguas a 19 FT . EN OTRA PARTE

DENTRO DE 180 NM N Y 120 NM S semicrculos VIENTOS DE 20 A 33 KT . SEAS

8 A 12 FT .

0.48 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 14.4N 109.0W .

Vientos sostenidos mximos de 45 RAFAGAS DE 55 KT KT . POCO CAMBIO EN

RADIO DE VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y MARES 12 pies o ms .

0.72 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 13.8N 112.5W .

Vientos sostenidos mximos de 50 RAFAGAS DE 60 KT KT . EXTENDIDO

PERSPECTIVAS … USO DE DIRECCIN SOLAMENTE … Los errores pueden ser grandes.

0.96 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 14.2N 116.2W .

Vientos sostenidos mximos de 55 RAFAGAS DE 65 KT KT .

0.120 HORAS DE PREVISIN DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE RAYMOND 16.0N 118.0W .

Vientos sostenidos mximos de 60 RAFAGAS DE 75 KT KT .

VIENTOS DE PREDICCIN EN Y CERCA DE CICLONES TROPICALES activa debe

Usar con precaucin debido a la incertidumbre en TRAYECTORIA … TAMAÑO

E INTENSIDAD .

… Golfo de Tehuantepec GALE ADVERTENCIA …

. PLAZO DE 30 nm de una 16N95W LINEA 15N95W A 14N96W … INCLUYENDO

El Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL VIENTO NE 20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE A 8

FT .

0.12 HORA PREVISTA EN 30 nm de una 16N95W LINEA 15N95W A

14N96W … INCLUYENDO Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL VIENTO NE 25 A 35

KT . OLEAJE DE 9 A 13 FT.

0.24 HORA PREVISTA EN 30 nm de una 16N95W lnea al 14N96W

INCLUYENDO Golfo de Tehuantepec … N a NE VIENTOS DE 30 A 35 KT . SEAS

9 A 14 FT . Otro punto de 45 nm de una 16N95W LINEA 14N95W A

13N97W N AL VIENTO NE 20 A 30 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 10 PIES .

0.48 HORA PREVISTA EN 30 nm de una 16N95W LINEA 14N95W A

13N96W … INCLUYENDO Golfo de Tehuantepec … N AL VIENTO NE 30 A 35

KT . OLEAJE DE 9 A 14 FT . Otro punto de 60 nm de una 16N95W lnea al

14N95W A 12N97W N AL VIENTO NE 20 A 30 KT . SEAS A 11 FT .

. SINOPSIS Y PRONSTICO .

. DE 10N A 19N 130W W DE VIENTO 20 kt o inferior . SEAS A 9 FT

EN NW hincharse.

0.24 HORA PREVISTA DE 12N A 16N 135W W DE VIENTO 20 kt o inferior .

OLEAJE A 8 FT EN NW hincharse.

0.36 hora Pronstico VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

CONVECCIN VLIDO 1500 UTC MIERCOLES 23 de octubre …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL RAYMOND … DISPERSOS MODERADA A FUERTE DENTRO

140 NM E semicrculo.

. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCIA ZONE / vaguada monznica …

Vaguada monznica 10N85W A 11N94W luego vuelve a sonar DE 12N108W A

10N130W . ITCZ 10N130W A 11N137W . DISPERSADAS MODERADA A FUERTE

DENTRO DE 120 NM N y 90 NM S DE EJE ENTRE 115W Y 133W .

DGS . Pronosticador . CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES .

SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA HONOLULU HI

PACFICO NORTE ECUADOR A 30N ENTRE 140W Y 160E

SINOPSIS VLIDO 1200 UTC 23 de octubre 2013 .

24 HORAS Pronstico vlido 1200 UTC 24 de octubre 2013 .

48 HORAS Pronstico vlido 1200 UTC 25 de octubre 2013 .

. ADVERTENCIAS .

. NINGUNO.

. SINOPSIS Y PRONSTICO .

. FRENTE DE 29N140W A 23N144W 20N147W PARA MVILES E LENTAMENTE .

0.24 hora Pronstico FRONT disipado.

0.24 hora Pronstico FRENTE DE 30N175W A 28N175E A 30N167E .

VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT DENTRO DE 120 NM E DE FRENTE N DE 29N .

0.48 hora Pronstico FRENTE DE 30N165W A 27N179W A 30N164E .

VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT DENTRO DE 120 NM E DE FRENTE N DE 28N .

. RIDGE DE 30N162W A 26N180W A 29N160E MOVIMIENTO SE 10 KT .

. RIDGE DE 30N159W A 25N155W A 22N149W CASI ESTACIONARIO .

. VIENTOS 20 KT O MENOS POR EL RESTO DEL AREA DE PREVISION .

. OLEAJE DE 9 A 11 pies, con 163E DE ENTRE 15N Y 27N .

0.24 hora Pronstico SEAS 8 FT O PRONSTICOS DE REA MENOS entero.

0.48 hora Pronstico OLEAJE DE 9 A 10 PIES N DE 29N ENTRE 164W Y

169W .

SEAS . 8 FT O MENOS POR EL RESTO DEL AREA DE PREVISION .

Lluvias MODERADOS . AISLADOS zona delimitada por 18N160E 10N174E

13N177W 06N177W 02N168E 08N160E .

. ZCIT DE 08N140W A 07N153W A 05N165W . AISLADO MODERADO

Lluvias dentro de 90 NM de la ZCIT W DE 155W y E 143 W .

$ $

. PRONOSTICADOR Powell. HONOLULU

FIN

No use cualquier informacin en este sitio para las decisiones de vida o muerte. Toda la informacin se concibe como complementario a las fuentes oficiales. Por favor consulte el sitio web de la agencia meteorolgica / oficial del gobierno de su pas por las advertencias locales, avisos y boletines .

Mexico/Cuba/US: Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Storm) KAREN 021800Z 25.8N 90.2W, moving NNW at 7.8 knots. Heading for Central Gulf Coast (NHC) – 041013 2045z

Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Storm) KAREN

KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST

 

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

 

Tropical Cyclone Warnings for Cuba and Mexico

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm Surge (Click image for source)

 

Mexico

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning in the Atlantic

 

Aviso Cicln Tropical en el Atlntico

 

Cuba

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning

 

Aviso de Cicln Tropical

 

United States

 

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

 

Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information the NHC site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.

 

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

(Image: NHC)

WTNT32 KNHC 041758
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

…KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.8N 90.2W
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY…WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO…WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220
KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001
LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES…50 KM…EAST OF THE CENTER…RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH…68 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF
54 MPH…86 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY…1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY…3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY…1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY…2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY…1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON
THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT…MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

END

 

Other Reports

 

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

 

Little Change to Karen; U.S. HIt By a Blizzard, Severe Weather, and Santa Ana Winds

 

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:44 PM GMT on October 04, 2013

 

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Karen Forms in the Gulf of Mexico
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2013

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Tropical Storm Karen is proving resilient in the face of dry air and high wind shear, as the storm heads north-northwest at 10 mph towards Louisiana. A NOAA hurricane hunter plane is in the storm this morning, and found top surface winds near 60 mph and a central pressure of 1001 mb, a pressure 2 mb higher than on Thursday evening. NOAA buoy 42001 located about 60 miles (95 km) north-northeast of the center reported a sustained wind of 38 mph, gusting to 49 mph, at 8:45 am EDT. Satellite loops show that Karen has maintained a vigorous circulation this morning in the face of high wind shear of 25 knots from strong upper-level winds out of the west. These winds have driven dry air from the Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen’s core, making it difficult for heavy thunderstorms to build on the west and south sides of Karen’s center of circulation. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Ocean heat content is 20 – 40 kJ per square centimeter, which is fairly typical for this time of year, and does not increase the odds of rapid intensification. Strong southeasterly winds ahead of Karen are pushing tides about 1 – 1.5′ above normal along most of the Louisiana and Mississippi coast, as seen on our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Karen, taken at approximately 3:30 pm EDT on October 3, 2013. At the time, Karen had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Brooding clouds from Tropical Storm Karen hover over the waters offshore of Cancun, Mexico, at 11 am EDT October 3, 2013. Image credit: Mindy Saylor.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear for the next three days is expected to stay high, around 20 – 30 knots, according to the 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere is quite dry over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and this dry air combined with high wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification possible until landfall. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will bring higher wind shear near 30 knots and turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Saturday. The higher shear, combined with ocean temperatures that will drop to 28°C, may be able to induce weakening, and NHC has sharply reduced its odds of Karen achieving hurricane strength. The 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast from NHC put Karen’s best chance of becoming a hurricane as a 23% chance on Sunday at 2 am EDT. This is down from the 41% odds given in Thursday afternoon’s forecast. Most of the models show Karen intensifying by 5 – 10 mb on Saturday afternoon and evening as the storm nears the coast, as the storm interacts with the trough of low pressure turning it to the northeast. This predicted intensification may be because of stronger upper-level outflow developing (due to diverging winds aloft sucking up more air from the surface.) We don’t have much skill making hurricane intensity forecasts, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Karen do the opposite of what the models predict, and decay to a weak tropical storm just before landfall, due to strong wind shear. In any case, residents of New Orleans should feel confident that their levee system will easily withstand any storm surge Karen may generate, as rapid intensification of Karen to a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has a only a minuscule probability of occurring (1% chance in the latest NHC forecast.)

Since Karen is expected to make a sharp course change to the northeast near the time it approaches the south coast of Louisiana, the models show a wide range of possible landfall locations. The European and UKMET models are the farthest west, with a landfall occurring west of New Orleans. The GFS model is at the opposite extreme, showing a landfall about 400 miles to the east, near Apalachicola, Florida. NHC is splitting the difference between these extremes, which is a reasonable compromise. Most of Karen’s heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear when the storm makes landfall, and there will likely be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 – 3″ to the immediate west of where the center. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 – 8″ can be expected to the east. NHC’s 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast shows the highest odds of tropical storm-force winds to be at the tip of the Mississippi River at Buras, Louisiana: 66%. New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile, and Pensacola have odds ranging from 47% – 51%.

Most significant fire threat for Southern California in the past 5 years
A Santa Ana wind event is building over Southern California this morning, where wind gusts in excess of 50 mph have already been observed this morning. From the Los Angeles NWS office:

“Most significant fire weather threat across Southern California in past 5 years as strong Santa Ana wind event unfolds. In addition to the strength of winds being projected…the concerns with this event include the widespread nature and long duration of Santa Ana winds…very long period of single digit humidities…and extremely dry fuels approaching record levels. Red flag warnings are in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties overnight into Sunday. The onset of the offshore winds are expected to begin across the mountains by late evening…then descend into the lower elevations overnight. The peak of this Santa Ana wind event will likely be late tonight through Saturday morning…with the strongest winds focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties.”


Figure 3. A moderate risk for severe weather is predicted for this afternoon over Iowa and surrounding states.

A blizzard and a severe weather outbreak in the Midwest
The same low pressure system that is expected to turn Tropical Storm Karen to the northeast this weekend is hammering the Midwest with a variety of extreme weather today. Blizzard warnings are flying in Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota from the storm, and a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes is expected over much of Iowa this afternoon. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has done some research to see the last time a blizzard, major severe weather outbreak, tropical storm, and extreme fire danger all threatened the U.S. at the same time, and has not been able to find such an event in past history.

Portlight disaster relief charity ready to respond to Karen
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, are ready to respond to Tropical Storm Karen, if they are needed. You can check out their progress on the Portlight Blog or donate to Portlight’s disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

I’ll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters WunderBlog

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

MARITIME

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

 

AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN AT 04/1800 UTC IS NEAR 25.8N
90.2W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 208 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER…AND ABOUT 240 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ABOUT KAREN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2…AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. A HURRICANE
WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS
OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC…ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN…
IS 0.49 IN MERIDA MEXICO.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N44W 15N47W 10N49W…
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE…TO
LOCALLY STRONG…FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 18N52W 16N56W…TO
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N57W. THE WAVE WAS
REPOSITIONED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N49W 24N50W…TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N51W. THIS TROUGH IS ENERGY THAT
IS RELATED TO THE 18N52W 14N57W TROPICAL WAVE…THAT WAS
STRETCHED OUT ALONG A NORTH-TO-SOUTH AXIS AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 45W AND 52W.

…THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W 8N20W 8N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N25W TO 5N35W
AND 5N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N
TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 13W…FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W…
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W…AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN
42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE
EAST OF 50W.

…DISCUSSION…

THE GULF OF MEXICO…

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL THE GULF OF MEXICO AREA THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL
STORM KAREN. THE EXCEPTION IS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W…

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGBK…
KVBS…KDLP…AND AT KEIR. LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE ICAO STATION KSPR. ICAO STATION KATP IS REPORTING A
VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES AND HAZE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS…
IN VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA…IN GALVESTON AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT
ARTHUR…SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS COVER THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAIN COVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA…AND IN COASTAL ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF MARY
ESTHER…LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS IN TALLAHASSEE AND
PERRY FLORIDA…BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE AT THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN
AIRPORT AND AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST…MIAOFFNT4…FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM KAREN.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…ACROSS HISPANIOLA…INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA…

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N67W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 27N67W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
23N68W…ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…TO
15N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO
22N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W…AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH
FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 250 MB SHOWS SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL
CUT ACROSS THE AREA AND COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
OR SO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 16N TO
22N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS OR LESS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. THIS FEATURE IS JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN COLOMBIA…TO 11N80W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…BEYOND 10N86W IN
COSTA RICA…INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND
81W AT 04/0915 UTC HAS WEAKENED COMPARATIVELY. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND
85W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE
27N67W CYCLONIC CENTER. THE EXCEPTION IS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N67W TO
26N73W TO 23N78W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO
28N49W AND 25N49W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 250 NM
TO 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH.

A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N36W TO 25N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION
ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N24W TO 25N31W…TO 29N47W…TO 32N55W…AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N66W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO
THE WEST OF 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic)FZNT02 KNHC 041532
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 04.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 05.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 06.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TROPICAL STORM KAREN AT 25.6N 90.2W 1003 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 04
MOVING N-NW OR 330 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS
55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT…
110 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO
33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.7N 90.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT…90 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
120 NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE
N OF 25N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 29.8N 88.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…40 NM SW
QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
150 NM E AND 75 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE
N OF 27N FROM 85 TO 90 WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL KAREN NEAR 33.5N
83.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 25 GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC 48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 77W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

END

 

Spanish (Translated by Google)

 

Cicln Tropical ( Tropical Storm ) KAREN

KAREN DENOMINACIN DE LA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* GRAND ISLE- LOUISIANA A OESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* MORGAN ciudad de Luisiana hasta la desembocadura del ro Perla

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS
* LAGO MAUREPAS
* Lago Pontchartrain
* DESTIN DE INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

Avisos de Ciclones Tropicales para Cuba y Mxico

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Satlite ( imagen Pica para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Previsin de 5 das ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Storm Surge ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

Mxico

Advertencia cicln tropical en el Atlntico

Aviso Cicln Tropical en el Atlntico

Cuba

Cicln Tropical Advertencia

Aviso de Cicln Tropical

Estados Unidos

El tiempo Nacional ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Debido al cierre del gobierno federal , NOAA.gov y sitios web ms relacionados estn disponibles. Sin embargo, como es necesario para proteger la vida y la propiedad de la informacin que el sitio ofrece NHC , se actualiza y se mantiene durante el cierre del gobierno federal.

[ Imagen de la prediccin de 5 das y las zonas costeras bajo una advertencia o un reloj ]

(Imagen: NHC )

WTNT32 TJSJ 041758
TCPSP2

BOLETN
TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT vie 04 de octubre 2013

… KAREN DENOMINACIN DE LA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO …

RESUMEN DE LAS 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … INFORMACIN
———————————————-
UBICACIN … 25.8N 90.2W
ACERCA DE MI 240 … 385 KM SSW DE LA BOCA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI
ACERCA DE MI 275 … 445 KM SSE DE MORGAN City Louisiana
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 50 MPH … 85 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … NNW O 335 GRADOS A 9 MPH … 15 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

NINGUNO.

RESUMEN DE LOS RELOJES Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* GRAND ISLE- LOUISIANA A OESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* MORGAN ciudad de Luisiana hasta la desembocadura del ro Perla

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS
* LAGO MAUREPAS
* Lago Pontchartrain
* DESTIN DE INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES
DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA . LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SE PUEDE CAMBIAR A A
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL O AVISO MAS TARDE HOY .

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS .

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA … GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 48 HORAS.

INTERESES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORESTE DEL GOLFO DE
MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE KAREN .

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
RELOJES Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA … FAVOR DE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR
SU LOCAL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS .

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
AT 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Karen
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.8 NORTE … LONGITUD 90.2 OESTE . KAREN ES
MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE – NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH … 15 KM / H. UN GIRO
HACIA EL NORTE Y UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE AVANCE SE ESPERAN POR
TEMPRANO EL SABADO . UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE SE ESPERA EN
Domingo … CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE AVANCE . EN LA PREVISIN
TRAYECTORIA … EL ​​CENTRO DE KAREN SE ESPERA QUE ESTAR CERCA DE LA COSTA DENTRO
EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL REA DE SBADO POR LA NOCHE .

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH … 85 KM / H…WITH SUPERIOR
RAFAGAS . POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS
SO … CON ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE Sbado noche, domingo .

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS … 220
KM … MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO . NOAA BOYA 42001
Situado a unos 35 MILLAS … 50 KM … AL ESTE DEL CENTRO … Recientemente
REPORTE UN VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 42 MPH … 68 KM / H…AND UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE
54 MPH … 86 KM / H.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
VIENTO … CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DE PARTES DE LA
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL zona el sbado . CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON
POSIBLE EN PARTES DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DEL DOMINGO POR LA MAANA .

MAREJADA … LA COMBINACIN DE marejada y la marea CAUSAR
REAS normalmente secas cerca de la costa que se inund por las aguas en aumento.
El agua podra llegar a las siguientes alturas sobre suelo si el
SURGE PICO SE PRODUCE EN EL MOMENTO DE MAREA ALTA …

Al oeste del Mississippi River a Terrebonne Bay … 1 A 3 PIES
BOCA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI AL Mobile Bay … 3 A 5 FT
AL ESTE DE LA BAHA DE MVIL AL OESTE DE baha de Apalache … 1 a 3 pies
Baha de Apalache INCLUYENDO Cedar Key … 2 A 4 FT
SUR DE BAHA APALACHEE a Tampa Bay … 1 a 2 FT

EL AGUA MS ALTO SE PRODUCE POR LA COSTA INMEDIATA CERCA Y AL
AL ESTE DE DONDE SE PRODUCE TIERRA … DONDE LA MAREJADA ESTARA
ACOMPAADO POR OLAS PELIGROSAS . INUNDACIONES SURGE RELACIONADA DEPENDE
LA DISTRIBUCIN RELATIVA DE LA SURGE Y EL CICLO DE MAREA … y puede variar
Mucho en distancias cortas. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU
AREA … FAVOR CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU TIEMPO LOCAL NACIONAL
OFICINA DE SERVICIO .

LLUVIA … KAREN SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A ​​6
PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DEL CENTRO Y ESTE DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO A TRAVES
DOMINGO POR LA NOCHE … PRINCIPALMENTE CERCA Y AL DERECHO DE LA RUTA DE LA
CENTER . CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES .

SIGUIENTE AVISO
————-
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 400 PM CDT .

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR CRESTA

FIN

Otros informes

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Poco cambio de Karen , EE.UU. golpeado por una tormenta de nieve , tiempo severo , y Santa Ana Vientos

Publicado por : Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:44 GMT del 04 de octubre 2013

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

La tormenta tropical Karen se forma en el Golfo de Mxico
Publicado por : Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:09 GMT del 03 de octubre 2013

Obtenga ms informacin en

” La tormenta tropical Karen est demostrando ser resistente frente de aire seco y cortante de vientos fuertes , ya que la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste a 10 mph hacia Louisiana. Un avin cazador de huracanes de NOAA es en la tormenta esta maana, y encontr los mejores vientos cerca de la superficie de 60 mph y una presin central de 1001 mb , una presin superior a 2 mb en la noche del jueves . Boya de NOAA 42001 Situado a unos 60 millas ( 95 km) al norte -noreste del centro reportaron vientos sostenidos de 38 mph con rachas de hasta 49 kilmetros por hora, a las 8:45 am EDT. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen ha mantenido una vigorosa circulacin esta maana frente a la cizalladura del viento mximo de 25 nudos de fuertes vientos de nivel superior fuera del oeste. Estos vientos han impulsado aire seco desde el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen, lo que dificulta a fuertes tormentas que se apoye en los lados oeste y sur del centro de la circulacin de Karen. Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, y la temperatura de los ocanos son una muy clida 29 C ( 84 bis F). Contenido de calor del ocano es 20 – 40 kJ por centmetro cuadrado, lo que es bastante tpico para esta poca del ao , y no aumenta las probabilidades de una rpida intensificacin. Vientos del sureste fuertes delante de Karen estn presionando mareas cerca de 1 – 1.5 ‘ encima de lo normal a lo largo de la mayor parte de la costa de Louisiana y Mississippi, como se ve en nuestra WunderMap con la capa de la marejada encendido.

Figura 1 . Imagen de satlite MODIS de la tormenta tropical Karen , tomada aproximadamente a las 3:30 pm EDT del 3 de octubre de 2013. En ese momento, Karen tena vientos mximos de 65 mph. Crdito de la imagen : NASA .

Figura 2 . Empollamiento nubes de la tormenta tropical Karen flotar sobre las aguas en alta mar de Cancn, Mxico , a las 11 horas EDT 03 de octubre 2013 . Crdito de la imagen : Mindy Saylor .

Prediccin para Karen
Se espera cizalladura del viento para los prximos tres das se mantengan altos , alrededor de 20 a 30 nudos , segn el pronstico del modelo am EDT 8 BUQUES . El ambiente es muy seco sobre el oeste del Golfo de Mxico , y este aire seco combinado con alta cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo es lento intensificacin posible hasta tocar tierra. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados traer mayor cizalladura del viento cerca de 30 nudos y gire Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa el sbado . La cizalla superior, combinado con temperaturas ocenicas que se reducir a 28 C, puede ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y NHC ha reducido drsticamente sus probabilidades de Karen alcanzar la categora de huracn . El 05 a.m. Viernes Pronstico probabilidad viento EDT del NHC puso mejor oportunidad de convertirse en un huracn como una oportunidad de 23 % el domingo a las 2 am EDT de Karen. Esto est por debajo de los 41 % de probabilidad que figuran en el pronstico de la tarde del jueves . La mayora de los modelos muestran Karen intensificando a 5 – 10 mb en el sbado por la tarde y por la noche mientras la tormenta se acerca a la costa , mientras la tormenta interacta con el canal de girar hacia el noreste de baja presin. Esta intensificacin prevista puede ser causa de salida de nivel superior ms fuerte desarrollo (debido a la divergencia de los vientos en altura chupando ms aire de la superficie. ) No tenemos mucha habilidad haciendo pronsticos de intensidad de huracanes , as que no me sorprendera ver a Karen hacer lo contrario de lo que los modelos predicen , y la decadencia de una dbil tormenta tropical antes de tocar tierra, debido a la fuerte cizalladura del viento . En cualquier caso , los residentes de Nueva Orleans deben sentirse seguros de que su sistema de diques puede soportar fcilmente cualquier marejada Karen puede generar , como la rpida intensificacin de Karen a una categora 3 o ms fuerte huracn tiene slo una probabilidad nfima de ocurrencia ( probabilidad del 1% en las ltimas previsiones NHC ).

Dado que se espera que Karen para hacer un cambio de rumbo brusco hacia el noreste , cerca de la hora que se aproxima a la costa sur de Louisiana, los modelos muestran una amplia gama de posibles ubicaciones recalada . Los modelos europeos y UKMET son el oeste ms lejano , con un avistamiento de tierra que ocurren al oeste de Nueva Orleans. El modelo GFS se encuentra en el extremo opuesto , mostrando un avistamiento de tierra a unos 400 kilmetros al este, cerca de Apalachicola , Florida. NHC es dividir la diferencia entre estos dos extremos , que es un compromiso razonable . La mayor parte de las fuertes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento cuando la tormenta toque tierra , y es probable que haya precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1 – . 3 ” inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro de lluvias mucho mayores totales de 4 – 8 ” se puede esperar que este. 05 a.m. EDT Viernes Pronstico probabilidad viento del NHC muestra las probabilidades ms altas de los vientos de tormenta tropical para estar en la punta del ro Mississippi en Buras , Louisiana : 66 %. Nueva Orleans , Gulfport , Mobile y Pensacola han probabilidades que van desde 47 % – 51 %.

Amenaza de incendio ms importante para el sur de California en los ltimos 5 aos
Un evento de viento de Santa Ana est construyendo sobre el sur de California esta maana, cuando ya se han observado las rfagas de viento de ms de 50 mph de esta maana. Desde la oficina de NWS Los Angeles :

” Amenaza de tiempo incendios ms importantes en el sur de California en los ltimos 5 aos como un fuerte viento de Santa Ana evento se desarrolla. Adems de la fuerza de los vientos que se proyecta … las preocupaciones con este evento incluyen el carcter generalizado y de larga duracin de los vientos de Santa Ana . .. muy largo perodo de humedades de un solo dgito … y combustibles extremadamente secos llegan a niveles rcord. advertencias banderas rojas estn en vigor durante gran parte de los condados de Ventura durante la noche hasta el domingo en Los Angeles y . se espera que el inicio de los vientos hacia el mar para iniciar a travs de la montaas por la noche tarde … y luego descienden en las elevaciones ms bajas durante la noche. El pico de este evento de viento de Santa Ana probable que sea tarde esta noche hasta el sbado por la maana … con los vientos ms fuertes se centraron en los condados de los Angeles y Ventura . ”

Figura 3 . Un riesgo moderado de tiempo severo se pronostica para esta tarde sobre Iowa y estados vecinos .

Una tormenta de nieve y un brote de mal tiempo en el Medio Oeste
El mismo sistema de baja presin que se espera que pase a la tormenta tropical Karen en el noreste de este fin de semana est martillando el Medio Oeste con una variedad de condiciones climticas extremas hoy. Advertencias de Blizzard estn volando en Wyoming , Nebraska y Dakota del Sur de la tormenta , y un brote importante de tormentas severas con algunos tornados se espera que en la mayor parte de Iowa esta tarde. Wunderground tiempo historiador Christopher C. Burt ha hecho algunas investigaciones para ver la ltima vez que una tormenta de nieve , el mayor brote de mal tiempo , tormenta tropical, y el peligro extremo de incendio todos los amenazados los EE.UU. , al mismo tiempo, y no ha sido capaz de encontrar un evento en la historia pasada .

Portillo desastre caridad alivio listo para responder a Karen
La organizacin de socorro Portlight.org , fundada e integrada por miembros de la comunidad Wunderground , estn listos para responder a la tormenta tropical Karen , si son necesarios . Usted puede comprobar fuera de su progreso en el Blog Portillo o donar al fondo de ayuda humanitaria de Portillo en el sitio web portlight.org .

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters

” – Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo de la Florida Panhandle sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo del Panhandle de Florida el sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo de la Florida Panhandle sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo de la Florida Panhandle sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

MARTIMO

Atlntico Tropical Tiempo Discusin

AXNT20 TJSJ 041804
TWDAT

DISCUSIN CLIMA TROPICAL
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT VIERNES 04 de octubre 2013

DISCUSIN CLIMA TROPICAL DE NORTE AMERICA CENTRAL …
AMERICA … GOLFO DE MEXICO … EL ​​MAR CARIBE … SECCIONES DEL NORTE DE
SOUTH AMERICA … Y OCANO ATLNTICO EN LA COSTA AFRICANA DE LA
ECUADOR PARA 32N . LA SIGUIENTE INFORMACIN EST BASADA EN SATELITE
OBSERVACIONES IMGENES … Tiempo … RADAR … y meteorolgicos
ANLISIS .

BASADO EN LA SUPERFICIE 1200 UTC ANLISIS E IMGENES POR SATLITE
1715 UTC.

… CARACTERSTICAS ESPECIALES …

EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN AT 04 /1800 UTC EST CERCA 25.8N
90.2W . Esta posicin tambin es de unos 208 NM AL SUR -SUROESTE
DE LA BOCA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI … Y COMO A 240 NM AL
Sur-sureste de Morgan City Louisiana. KAREN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA
EL NORTE – NOROESTE 8 NUDOS. LA CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA
PRESIN ES 1003 MB . LOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON VELOCIDADES DE VIENTO
45 NUDOS CON RAFAGAS HASTA 55 NUDOS. POR FAVOR LEA EL PBLICO
ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE KAREN que se emiten bajo la cabecera de la OMM
WTNT32 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZADO DE AWIPS MIATCPAT2 … Y EL
PRONSTICO / ADVERTENCIAS que se emiten bajo la cabecera de la OMM
WTNT22 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZADO DE AWIPS MIATCMAT2 . UN HURACN
VIGILANCIA Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HAN EMITIDO POR PARTES
DEL U.S.A. Costa del Golfo . Precipitacin convectiva …
DISPERSADAS a numerosos FUERTE DE 23N A 27N ENTRE 85W Y 90W .
QUEBRADA DE NUBES MULTICAPA Cubierto y otras posibles
PRECIPITACIN SON OTRA PARTE AL ESTE DE LA LNEA QUE FUNCIONA
DEL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA COSTERA DE LA ESQUINA NORESTE
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN . LAS LLUVIAS DE 24 HORAS total en pulgadas
CORRESPONDIENTE AL EJERCICIO CERRADO EL 04 /1200 UTC … SEGN EL PAN
TEMPERATURA DE LATINA Y TABLAS DE PRECIPITACIN … MIATPTPAN …
Es de 0,49 EN MERIDA MEXICO .

… ONDAS TROPICALES …

UN OCANO ATLNTICO ONDA TROPICAL ESTA JUNTO 20N44W 15N47W 10N49W …
CASI ESTACIONARIO DURANTE LOS ULTIMOS 6 HORAS. CONVECTIVO
PRECIPITACIN … AISLADO DE MODERADO muy dispersa … A
LOCALMENTE FUERTE … DESDE 9N A 16N ENTRE 40W Y 50W .

UN OCEANO ATLANTICO TROPICAL CURVAS onda a lo largo 18N52W 16N56W … A
A 1.012 MB ​​CENTRO DE BAJA PRESIN QUE EST CERCA 14N57W . LA ONDA ERA
Reposicionado PARA COINCIDIR CON IMAGENES DE SATELITE DE LARGO PLAZO .
Precipitacin convectiva … muy dispersos MODERADO A AISLADO
FUERTE DE 8N A 15N ENTRE 52W Y 60W .

A TRAVS DE LA SUPERFICIE ES LO LARGO 26N49W 24N50W … A UN 1012 MB ​​BAJA
CENTRO DE PRESIN QUE EST CERCA 21N51W . ESTE CANAL ES LA ENERGA QUE
Est relacionada con la 18N52W 14N57W ONDA TROPICAL … eso fue
Estir largo de un eje norte- Sur por lo menos 24 horas antes.
Precipitacin convectiva … MODERADO AISLADO DE 21N A 25N
ENTRE 45W Y 52W .

… LA ITCZ / LA vaguada monznica …

EL CANAL DEL MONZN PASA POR LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE GUINEA
CERCA 10N14W 8N20W 8N25W . La ZCIT contina desde 8N25W A 5N35W
Y 5N40W . Precipitacin convectiva … DISPERSOS FUERTE DE 6N
A 7N ENTRE 12W Y 13W … DESDE 6N DE 7N ENTRE 16W Y 17W …
DE 7N A 8N ENTRE 20W Y 22W … Y DESDE 7N A 9N ENTRE
42W Y 44W . AISLADO EN OTRA PARTE DE MODERADA A 10N 2N AL
AL ESTE DE 50W .

DISCUSIN … …

EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …

AIR COMPARATIVO SECADORA EN DEPRESION SEGN LO VISTO EN VAPOR DE AGUA
IMGENES cubre prcticamente TODO EL GOLFO DE MEXICO AREA QUE ES
AL OESTE DEL FLUJO DE VIENTO QUE SE MUEVE EN TODO TROPICAL
STORM KAREN . La excepcin es la HUMEDAD DE ALTO NIVEL QUE EL DE
EL SUR DEL 21N AL ESTE DE 96W en el extremo sudoeste
DE LA ZONA.

NIVEL SUPERIOR anticiclnica FLUJO DE VIENTO CUBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …
EL OCANO ATLNTICO … Y EL MAR CARIBE AL NORTE DEL 10N
Al oeste de 70W .

PARA LOS SITIOS DE PLATAFORMA OFFSHORE OIL QUE ESTN AL NORTE DEL 27N
Al oeste de 88W …

TECHOS nubes bajas se observan en LA OACI ESTACIONES KGBK …
KVBS … KDLP … Y EN KEIR . NUBE DE BAJA Y TECHOS Nubes Medias
CUBRIR LA OACI ESTACIN KSPR . OACI ESTACIN KATP informa que un
VISIBILIDAD DE 3 KILMETROS y Haze . SKIES FERIA / cielos despejados en o por
INFERIOR A 12.000 PIES estn siendo reportados en otros lugares del
AREA .

NUBES BAJAS ROTOS CUBREN LA BAJA RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS …
EN VICTORIA Y Port Lavaca … EN GALVESTON Y EN BEAUMONT / PUERTO
ARTHUR … esparcieron por nubes fragmentadas CUBIERTA DE HOUSTON
REA METROPOLITANA . NUBES MULTICAPA rota y cubierta para la lluvia
SUR DE LOUISIANA … y en la costa de Alabama . NIVEL Y MEDIO
Techos altos CLOUD NIVEL CUBIERTA FLORIDA AL OESTE DE MARA
ESTHER … NUBE DE BAJA Y TECHOS Nubes Medias de Tallahassee y
PERRY FLORIDA … NUBES ALTAS rotos son AT THE TAMPA METROPOLITANA
AEROPUERTO Y AL KEY WEST ESTACIN NAVAL AIR.

POR FAVOR LEA LA ALTA MAR PRONSTICO … MIAHSFAT2 … Y EL
PRONSTICO OFFSHORE … MIAOFFNT4 … Para ms detalles sobre TROPICAL
STORM KAREN .

Desde el Ocano Atlntico … A TRAVS LA ESPANOLA … EN EL CARIBE
SEA …

A WESTERN ATLNTICO MEDIO NIVEL DE CICLONICA NIVEL SUPERIOR
CENTRO DE CIRCULACION SE ACERCA 27N67W . FLUJO DE VIENTO CICLONICA CUBRE LA
OCANO ATLNTICO DE LAS ANTILLAS MAYORES A 30N ENTRE 60W Y
70W . UNA VAGUADA extiende desde el centro CICLONICA 27N67W A
23N68W … A TRAVS DE LA PARTE OCCIDENTAL DE LA REPBLICA DOMINICANA PARA …
15N73W en el Mar Caribe . Precipitacin convectiva …
DISPERSADAS a numerosos FUERTE EN EL OCANO ATLNTICO DE 20N A
22N ENTRE 64W Y 68W . Dispersas a moderada DISPERSOS
EN OTRA PARTE EN EL OCANO ATLNTICO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE
ESPANOLA DE 30N ENTRE 60W Y 70W … Y EN EL MAR CARIBE
EN LAS AGUAS COSTERAS DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA .

LA PREVISIN DE GFS 700 MB MUESTRA QUE LA ESPANOLA SER
RODEADO DE FLUJO DE VIENTO CICLONICA CON UNA VAGUADA INVERTIDA AMPLIA
Durante las primeras 24 a 30 horas del perodo del pronstico . SOUTHERLY
FLUJO DE VIENTO cubrir el rea PARA EL RESTO DEL PERIODO DE TIEMPO
LA VAGUADA INVERTIDA MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE Y NOROESTE . EL GFS
MODELO DE 500 MB y 250 MB PARA MUESTRA MUESTRA QUE A TRAVS DE LA VOLUNTAD
CORTE A TRAVES DEL AREA Y CUBRIR LA ESPANOLA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
O SO .

EL RESTO DEL MAR CARIBE …

NIVEL SUPERIOR anticiclnica FLUJO DE VIENTO CUBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …
EL OCANO ATLNTICO … Y EL MAR CARIBE AL NORTE DEL 10N
Al oeste de 70W .

UN OCANO ATLNTICO SUPERFICIE DEL CANAL ES LO LARGO 59W/60W DE 16N A
22N MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE 10 NUDOS O MENOS . Rainshowers SON POSIBLES
DE 17N A 21N ENTRE 58W Y 62W . Esta funcin es SOLO
FUERA DE LA ESQUINA NORESTE DEL AREA .

EL CANAL DEL MONZN es a lo largo 11N73W EN COLOMBIA … A 11N80W EN
LA ESQUINA SUROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE … ALL EN 10N86W
COSTA RICA … EN EL OCANO PACFICO ORIENTAL . CONVECTIVO
PRECIPITACIN … NUMEROSOS FUERTE DE 6N A 12N ENTRE 70W Y
81W AT 04 / 0915 UTC se ha debilitado COMPARATIVO . DISPERSADAS FUERTE
Precipitacin convectiva RESTOS DE 7N A 13N ENTRE 67W Y
85W .

EL RESTO DEL ATLNTICO …

NIVEL SUPERIOR anticiclnica FLUJO DE VIENTO CUBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …
EL OCANO ATLNTICO … Y EL MAR CARIBE AL NORTE DEL 10N
Al oeste de 70W .

AIR COMPARATIVO SECADORA EN DEPRESION SEGN LO VISTO EN VAPOR DE AGUA
IMGENES CUBRE EL OCANO ATLNTICO QUE ES AL OESTE DE LA
27N67W CICLONICA CENTER . La excepcin es ALTO NIVEL DE HUMEDAD
Es el noroeste de la lnea que va desde 32N67W A
26N73W 23N78W A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE CUBA .

A NIVEL MEDIO A TRAVS DE NIVEL SUPERIOR PASA POR 32N45W A
28N49W Y 25N49W . AIR COMPARATIVO SECADORA EN HUNDIMIENTO DE VISTA
EN IMGENES DE VAPOR DE AGUA CUBRE EL OCANO ATLNTICO EN 250 NM
A 400 NM AL NOROESTE DE LA CANAL .

A NIVEL MEDIO DEBILITAMIENTO A TRAVS DE NIVEL SUPERIOR PASA POR
32N36W A 25N40W . Precipitacin convectiva … NUMEROSOS FUERTE
DE 21N A 23N ENTRE 36W Y 40W . BROKEN a nublado
NUBES MULTICAPA y precipitaciones persistentes POSIBLE
OTRO DE 19N A 28N ENTRE 32W Y 42W .

A RIDGE SUPERFICIE pasa por un 1021 MB CENTRO DE ALTA PRESIN
Que est cerca 31N24W A 25N31W … A 29N47W … A 32N55W … Y
NOROESTE MAS ALLA A 1022 MB CENTRO DE ALTA PRESIN QUE EST CERCA
33N66W .

POR FAVOR LEA LA ALTA MAR PRONSTICO … MIAHSFAT2 … PARA MS
DETALLES SOBRE EL PRONSTICO 48 HORAS PARA EL SURESTE DE VIENTOS DEL SUR
DE 20 A 25 NUDOS Y ALTURAS DEL MAR A 8 PIES EN EL NORTE DE 29N A
EL OESTE DE 77W .

PARA OBTENER MS INFORMACIN , VISITE
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV / MARINE

$ $
MT

High Seas Pronstico (Tropical del Atlntico ) FZNT02 TJSJ 041532
HSFAT2

ALTA MAR PRONOSTICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
1630 UTC vie 04 de octubre 2013

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio
ALTURA DE LA MS ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuales pueden ser
Ms del doble de altura de ola significativa .

Scurit

ATLNTICO DE 07N A 31N W DE 35W INCLUYENDO MAR CARIBE Y
GOLFO DE MEXICO

SINOPSIS VLIDO 1200 UTC Vie Oct 04.
24 HOUR 1200 UTC Pronstico vlido Sab Oct 05.
Pronstico de 48 horas vlido a las 1200 UTC Dom Oct 06.

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN EN 25.6N 90.2W 1.003 MB a 1500 UTC 04 de octubre
MUDANZAS N -NW O 330 GRADOS A 9 KT . MXIMA sostenida del viento 45 RAFAGAS
55 KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL VIENTO 120 NM NE QUADRANT …
110 NM SE Y CUADRANTE CUADRANTE NW 60 NM . SEAS 12 pies o ms
Dentro de los 120 Nm de centro, salvo 30 NM SW CUADRANTE CON OLEAJE A 20
FT . Otro punto de 180 NM N y 90 S NM semicrculos vientos
33 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .
0.24 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE KAREN 27.7N 90.9W .
MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS RAFAGAS DE VIENTO 45 55 KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
VIENTOS EN 100 NM NE QUADRANT … 90 NM cuadrante SE … 30 NM SW
CUADRANTE … Y 50 NM NW QUADRANT . SEAS 12 pies o ms DENTRO
NM 120 E y 60 NM W semicrculos con aguas a 22 FT . EN OTRA PARTE
N DE 25N ENTRE 86W Y 93W VIENTO A 33 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .
0.48 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE KAREN 29.8N 88.6W .
MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS RAFAGAS DE VIENTO 55 65 KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
VIENTOS EN 100 NM NE QUADRANT … 120 NM SE CUADRANTE … 40 NM SW
Y CUADRANTE CUADRANTE NW 60 NM . SEAS 12 pies o ms DENTRO
E 150 NM y 75 NM W semicrculos con aguas a 24 FT . EN OTRA PARTE
N DE 27N de 85 a 90 VIENTOS DE 33 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .
0.72 hora Pronstico POST- TROPICAL CERCA DE KAREN EXTRATROPICAL 33.5N
83.0W . MXIMO SOSTENIDO DE VIENTO 25 RAFAGAS 35 KT .

VIENTOS DE PREDICCIN EN Y CERCA DE CICLONES TROPICALES activa debe
Usar con precaucin debido a la incertidumbre en TRAYECTORIA … TAMAO
E INTENSIDAD .

. SINOPSIS Y PRONSTICO .

. ATLC 48 hora Pronstico N DE 29N W DE 77W SE a S VIENTOS DE 20 A
25 KT . OLEAJE A 8 FT .

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

$ $
. PRONOSTICADOR WALLY BARNES . CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES .

FIN

Mexico: Hurricane (CAT1) INGRID 160600Z near 23.2N 96.9W, moving WNW at 5 knots. HURRICANE WARNING: CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA – 160913 0725z

Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane) INGRID

…INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

(Scroll down for Spanish translation) (Desplácese hacia abajo para la traducción al español)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Mexico

Tropical Cyclone Warning in the Atlantic – Mexico

Tropical Cyclone Warning in the Atlantic

Aviso Ciclón Tropical en el Atlántico

United States

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

(Image NHC) Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (Click image for source)

WTNT35 KNHC 160531
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
100 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

…INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.2N 96.9W
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…989 MB…29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 100 AM CDT…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST.  INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H…AND A TURN
TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF
INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST.  WEAKENING WILL BEGIN ONCE INGRID MOVES OVER
LAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES…165 KM…MAINLY TO NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB…29.21 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS
MORNING.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

END

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 16 Sep, 2013 3:00 GMT

Hurricane INGRID (AL10) currently located near 23.1 N 96.5 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

(Image: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/) Note CAT 1 HURRICANE APPROACH as indicated by TSR above (as at 16 Sept 2013 0705Z)

Mexico:…Manuel weakens to a tropical depression but still producing heavy
rainfall…
  (Link to Wunderground)

MARITIME

High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic)

FZNT02 KNHC 160253
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC MON SEP 16 2013

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC MON SEP 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE SEP 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED SEP 18.

.WARNINGS.

…GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE INGRID NEAR 23.1N 96.5W 989 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 16
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS…90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE…90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60
NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND
120 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 25N TO 28N W OF 92W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM INGRID INLAND NEAR 22.9N 98.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT…70 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER FROM 23N
TO 25N W OF 97W WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 26N W
OF 94W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 26N TO 28N W OF 95W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW INGRID NEAR 22.1N
100.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. FROM 23N TO
26N W OF 94W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED INLAND.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

…ATLANTIC GALE WARNING…

.REMNANT LOW OF HUMBERTO NEAR 27N41.5W 1008 MB. WITHIN 150 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
25N E OF 41W AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 24N E OF 47W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
29N43W 1006 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 26N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W AND N
OF 28N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 39W AND 48W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
30N45W 1004 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 75 NM NE SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 28N BETWEEN
41W AND 48W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
9 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.CARIBBEAN 06 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W
E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

END

 

News Reports

Mexico: Twin Storms Leave Dozens Dead

SKY NEWS 4:38am UK (0338Z GMT/UTC), Monday 16 September 2013

Twenty-four people die in flooding and landslides in Mexico caused by Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid.

Landslides and heavy rain triggered by Tropical Storm Manuel have caused at least 24 deaths on Mexico’s Pacific coast.

The US National Hurricane Centre said the storm began to weaken after making landfall near the port of Manzanillo, but the threat of flash flooding and mudslides remained.

In the southern coastal state of Guerrero, authorities said a landslide on the outskirts of Acapulco buried a house, with six members of the same family killed.

24 dead in Mexico after landslides caused by Tropical Storm Manuel
Heavy rain has caused widespread flooding in some states

Three people were swept to their deaths by a river and another was killed when a wall collapsed on top of them in the city.

Heavy rain has caused rivers to overflow, damaging hundreds of homes and disrupting communications.

Tropical Storm Manuel had sustained winds of up to 40mph and was moving northwest. It is expected to dissipate later on Monday.

Mexico is also being affected by Hurricane Ingrid in the Caribbean Sea.

Rain from the hurricane has caused landslides in the central states of Puebla and Hidalgo. It is expected to make landfall this morning.

Manuel was expected to dump up to 15 inches of rain over Guerrero and Michoacan, with 25 inches possible in some isolated areas.

Officials in the gulf state of Veracruz began evacuating residents on Friday, with civil protection authorities saying more than 6,600 people had been moved to shelters or alternative accommodation.

Last week, 13 people died in Veracruz when a landslide buried their homes in heavy rain caused by Tropical Depression Fernand.

(Video credit: AZCNewsView) Published on Sep 15, 2013

Spanish (Translated by Google)

El ciclón tropical ( huracán ) INGRID

INGRID … espera que toque tierra EN EL NORESTE DE MEXICO TARDE
HOY …

UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* CABO ROJO DE LA PESCA

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* NORTE DE LA PESCA DE BAHIA ALGODONES

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* NORTE DE LA PESCA DE RIO SAN FERNANDO
* AL SUR DE CABO ROJO DE TUXPAN

LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD EN EL AVISO DE HURACAN
AREA DEBEN SER EJECUCIÓN .

( Desplácese hacia abajo para la traducción española ) ( Desplácese HACIA Abajo Para La Traducción al español )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Satélite ( imagen Pica para la fuente )
México
Advertencia ciclón tropical en el Atlántico – México
Advertencia ciclón tropical en el Atlántico
Aviso Ciclón Tropical en el Atlántico
Estados Unidos

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional

Centro Nacional de Huracanes

( NHC Image ) Relojes / advertencias costeras y pronóstico de 5 días para el Cono Storm Center ( Pulsar la imagen para la fuente)

WTNT35 TJSJ 160531
TCPSP5

BOLETÍN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIA NUMERO 15A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL102013
100 AM CDT lun 16 de septiembre 2013

INGRID … espera que toque tierra EN EL NORESTE DE MEXICO TARDE
HOY …

RESUMEN DE LAS 100 AM CDT … 0600 UTC … INFORMACIÓN
———————————————-
UBICACIÓN … 23.2N 96.9W
ACERCA DE MI 95 … 150 KM NE DE TAMPICO MEXICO
ACERCA DE MI 70 … 115 KM SE DE LA PESCA MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 75 MPH … 120 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … ONO O 285 GRADOS A 6 MPH … 9 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 989 MB … 29.21 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

NINGUNO.

RESUMEN DE LOS RELOJES Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* CABO ROJO DE LA PESCA

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* NORTE DE LA PESCA DE BAHIA ALGODONES

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* NORTE DE LA PESCA DE RIO SAN FERNANDO
* AL SUR DE CABO ROJO DE TUXPAN

LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD EN EL AVISO DE HURACAN
AREA DEBEN SER EJECUCIÓN .

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR MONITOREAR
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
AT 100 AM CDT … 0600 UTC … EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN FUE INGRID
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.2 NORTE … LONGITUD 96.9 OESTE . INGRID ES
MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH … 9 KM / H…AND UN GIRO
AL OESTE SE ESPERA MAS TARDE HOY … SEGUIDO POR UN GIRO A LA
OESTE -SUROESTE ESTA NOCHE. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA … EL CENTRO DE
INGRID DEBE ESTAR MUY CERCA DE LA COSTA DE MEXICO DENTRO DEL HURACÁN
ADVERTENCIA AREA DE ESTA TARDE .

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH … 120 KM / H…WITH SUPERIOR
RAFAGAS . ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE ES POSIBLE ANTES DEL CENTRO
Llega a la costa . DEBILITAMIENTO COMENZARÁ UNA VEZ QUE SE MUEVE POR INGRID
TIERRA .

Vientos huracanados EXTIENDEN HASTA 15 MILLAS … 30 KM … DEL
EL CENTRO … Y LOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL huracanados EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105
MILLAS … 165 KM … MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y SURESTE DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 989 MB … 29.21 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
LLUVIA … INGRID SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA
SOBRE UNA GRAN PARTE DE ESTE DE MEXICO … CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25
PULGADAS … SOBRE TODO EN AREAS DE TERRENO montañoso. ESTAS
LLUVIAS POSIBLEMENTE RESULTAR EN PELIGRO DE MUERTE inundaciones y MUD
Diapositivas.

VIENTO … CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESTÁN COMENZANDO A DISTRIBUIR EN LA
COSTA DENTRO DE LAS AREAS DE ADVERTENCIA . SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN
PARA LLEGAR A LA COSTA DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA TARDE
MAÑANA .

MAREJADA … A MAREJADA PELIGROSA ELEVAR LOS NIVELES DE AGUA
TANTO COMO DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA A LO LARGO DE LA INMEDIATA
COSTA CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO DE INGRID HACE
TIERRA. CERCA DE LA COSTA … LA MAREJADA SERA ACOMPAÑADO DE GRAN
Y olas destructivas .

SIGUIENTE AVISO
————-
ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 400 AM CDT .

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR PASCH

FIN
TSR de inicio de sesión del Atlántico : Alerta de Tormenta emitido al 16 de septiembre 2013 03:00 GMT

Huracán INGRID ( AL10 ) Actualmente se encuentra cerca de 23,1 N 96,5 W se prevé una huelga tierra a la siguiente verosimilitud ( s ) en el tiempo de espera determinado ( s ) :

Yellow Country Alert ( s ) o provincia ( s )
México
probabilidad para TS es 75 % en aproximadamente 21 horas
Alerta amarilla City ( s ) y Ciudad ( s )
Aldama ( 23,0 N , 98,1 W )
probabilidad para TS es 60 % en aproximadamente 21 horas
Tampico ( 22.2 N, 97.8 W )
probabilidad para TS es 60 % en aproximadamente 21 horas

Tenga en cuenta que
Alerta amarilla ( elevada ) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10 % y 30 % de probabilidad, o TS a por encima de 50 % de probabilidad.
CAT 1 significa vientos de huracán de fuerza de por lo menos 74 mph , 119 km / ho 64 nudos 1 -min sostenida.
TS significa tormenta tropical vientos de fuerza de por lo menos 39 mph , de 63 km / ho 34 nudos 1 -min sostenida.

Para obtener información sobre el pronóstico gráfica y más detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Rastreador Mapa

(Imagen: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ ) Nota CAT 1 HURRICANE ENFOQUE según lo indicado por TSR anterior (al 16 de septiembre 2013 0705Z )
México : … Manuel debilita a depresión tropical , pero aún la producción pesada
lluvia … ( Enlace a Wunderground )
MARÍTIMO
High Seas Pronóstico (Tropical del Atlántico )

FZNT02 TJSJ 160253
HSFAT2

ALTA MAR PRONOSTICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
0430 UTC lun 16 de septiembre 2013

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio
ALTURA DE LA MÁS ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuales pueden ser
Más del doble de altura de ola significativa .

PAN PAN

ATLÁNTICO DE 07N A 31N W DE 35W INCLUYENDO MAR CARIBE Y
GOLFO DE MEXICO

SINOPSIS VÁLIDO 0000 UTC lun 16 de septiembre .
24 HOUR 0000 UTC Pronóstico válido Mar Sep 17.
48 HOUR 0000 UTC Pronóstico válido Mié Sep 18.

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… GOLFO DE MÉXICO AVISO DE HURACAN …
. HURRICANE INGRID CERCA 23.1N 96.5W 989 MB AT 0300 UTC 16 de septiembre
MUDANZAS ONO O 290 GRADOS A 5 KT . Vientos sostenidos máximos de 65 KT
RAFAGAS DE 80 KT . LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DE 70 NM NW y SE
CUADRANTES … 90 NM cuadrante NE Y 30 NM SW cuadrante. SEAS 12 FT
O MAYOR EN 120 NM N SEMICIRCULO … 90 NM SE CUADRANTE Y 60
NM SW CUADRANTE DE MAR A 20 FT . Otro punto de 150 NM N Y
120 NM S semicírculos VIENTOS DE 20 A 33 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 12 FT.
RESTO DEL AREA DE 25N A 28N W DE 92W E AL VIENTO SE 20 A
25 KT . 8 A 10 FT .
0.24 HORA PREVISTA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL INGRID interior cerca 22.9N 98.1W .
Vientos sostenidos máximos de 45 RAFAGAS DE 55 KT KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
VIENTOS dentro de 90 NM NE QUADRANT … 70 NM SE CUADRANTE … 30 NM SW
CUADRANTE … Y 50 NM NW QUADRANT . SEAS 12 FT O MAYOR DE 23N
A 25N W DE 97W CON OLEAJE A 13 FT . OTRO DE 21N A 26N W
DE 94W VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 9 A 12 FT. RESTO DEL AREA
DE 26N A 28N W DE VIENTO E 95W 20 A 25 KT . SEAS A 9 FT .
0.48 hora Pronóstico POST- TROPICAL INGRID REMANENTE BAJA CERCA 22.1N
100.0W . Vientos sostenidos máximos de 20 RAFAGAS DE 30 KT KT . DE 23N A
26N 94W E W DE VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE A 8 FT .
0.72 hora Pronóstico … DISIPADO INTERIOR .

VIENTOS DE PREDICCIÓN EN Y CERCA DE CICLONES TROPICALES activa debe
Usar con precaución debido a la incertidumbre en TRAYECTORIA … TAMAÑO
E INTENSIDAD .

GALE ATLANTICO … ADVERTENCIA …

. REMANENTE BAJA CERCA DE HUMBERTO 27N41.5W 1008 MB . DENTRO DE 150 NM NE
SEMICIRCULO VIENTOS DE 30 A 35 KT . OLEAJE DE 12 A 16 FT . EN OTRA PARTE N de
E 25N 41W Y DE N DE 27N ENTRE 41W Y 44W VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT .
OLEAJE DE 9 A 12 FT. RESTO DEL AREA DE E N 24N 47W VIENTOS DE 20 KT
O MENOS . OLEAJE DE 8 A 10 PIES SOBRE TODO EN E hincharse.
0.24 hora Pronóstico PRES BAJO … CICLÓN TROPICAL CERCA POSIBLE …
29N43W 1006 MB . DENTRO DE 120 NM NE semicírculo VIENTOS DE 30 A 35 KT .
OLEAJE DE 12 A 16 FT . EN OTRA PARTE N de 26N ENTRE 39W Y 43W Y N
DE 28N ENTRE 43W Y 45W VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT . OLEAJE DE 9 A 12 FT.
RESTO DEL AREA DE N DE 26N ENTRE 39W Y 48W VIENTOS 20 kt o
MENOS . OLEAJE DE 8 A 10 PIES SOBRE TODO EN E hincharse.
0.48 hora Pronóstico PRES BAJO … CICLÓN TROPICAL CERCA POSIBLE …
30N45W 1004 MB . PREVISIONES SOBRE LAS AGUAS A menos de 75 NM NE SEMICÍRCULO
VIENTOS DE 30 A 35 KT . OLEAJE DE 12 A 15 PIES . EN OTRA PARTE N de 28N ENTRE
41W Y 48W VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT . OLEAJE DE 9 A 12 FT. RESTO DE
ZONA N DE 27N ENTRE 40W Y 50W VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . OLEAJE DE 8 A
9 FT .

. SINOPSIS Y PRONÓSTICO .

. CARIBE 06 HORAS DE PREVISIÓN DE 12N A 15N ENTRE 67W Y 74W
VIENTO E 20 A 25 KT . OLEAJE A 8 FT .
0.36 HORA PREVISTA DE 12N A 17N ENTRE 68 Y 77W E VIENTOS 20
A 25 KT . OLEAJE DE 8 A 10 PIES .
0.48 HORA PREVISTA DE 12N A 15N ENTRE 68 Y 77W E VIENTOS 20
A 25 KT . SEAS A 9 FT . DE 15N A 17N ENTRE 72W Y 78W
VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior . OLEAJE A 8 FT EN E hincharse.

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

$ $
GR . PRONOSTICADOR . CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES .

FIN
Los informes de prensa
México: Las tormentas gemelas Deja decenas de muertos

SKY NEWS 04:38 am Reino Unido ( 0338Z GMT / UTC ) , Lunes 16 de septiembre 2013
Veinticuatro personas murieron en las inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra en México causado por la tormenta tropical y huracán Manuel Ingrid .

Los deslizamientos de tierra y las fuertes lluvias provocadas por la tormenta tropical Manuel han causado al menos 24 muertes en la costa del Pacífico de México .

El Centro Nacional de Huracanes de EE.UU. dijo que la tormenta comenzó a debilitarse después de tocar tierra cerca del puerto de Manzanillo, pero la amenaza de inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra se mantuvo .

En el estado costero de Guerrero , las autoridades dijeron que un deslizamiento de tierra en las afueras de Acapulco enterrado una casa, con seis miembros de una misma familia asesinados.
24 muertos en México después de deslizamientos de tierra causados ​​por la tormenta tropical Manuel
Las fuertes lluvias han causado inundaciones en algunos estados

Tres personas fueron arrastradas a la muerte por un río y otro fue asesinado cuando un muro se derrumbó encima de ellos en la ciudad.

Las fuertes lluvias se desbordaron los ríos , dañando cientos de viviendas y comunicaciones de alteración .

Tormenta Tropical Manuel tenía vientos sostenidos de hasta 40 mph y se movía al noroeste . Se espera que se disipe más tarde el lunes .

México también se está viendo afectada por el huracán Ingrid en el Mar Caribe.

Lluvia del huracán ha causado derrumbes en los estados de Puebla e Hidalgo. Se espera que toque tierra esta mañana.

Se esperaba Manuel volcar hasta 15 centímetros de lluvia sobre Guerrero y Michoacán , con 25 pulgadas en algunas zonas aisladas.

Funcionarios en el estado de Veracruz iniciaron la evacuación de los residentes el viernes con las autoridades de protección civil diciendo más de 6.600 personas habían sido trasladadas a refugios o alojamientos alternativos .

La semana pasada, 13 personas murieron en Veracruz cuando un deslizamiento de tierra sepultó sus hogares en las fuertes lluvias causadas por la depresión tropical Fernand .

(Crédito vídeo: AZCNewsView ) Publicado el 15 de septiembre 2013

Mexico: Tropical Depression forms in SW Bay of Campeche. Tropical Storm Warning for Gulf Coast from Veracruz to Tampico (NHC) – 250813 2115z

Tropical Depression 6 (was Invest 95L)

(Desplácese hacia abajo para la traducción al español)

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm centred satellite image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

Last Updated: 25 August 2013, 22:00:00 (GMT Standard Time)
Wind: 55 KPH
Location: 19.5N 95.5W
Movement: W
Pressure: 1006 MB
Learn more about Tropical Depression Six and the 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season here.


Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
————————————————————————
21 GMT 08/25/13 19.5N 95.5W 35 1006 Tropical Depression

(Image: smn.cna.gob.mx) Alvarado Radar, Mexico (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

(Image: NHC)

WTNT31 KNHC 252057
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER   1…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GULF COAST OF
MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO TAMPICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H. A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
LANDFALL…AND WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER VERACRUZ…HIDALGO…NORTHERN PUEBLA…SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS…AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN A FEW HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 25 Aug, 2013 21:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AL06 (AL06) currently located near 19.5 N 95.5 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Tropical Depression Six Forms in the Gulf of Mexico – Wunderground Blog

 

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:19 PM GMT on August 25, 2013 +16

 

The tropical wave that crossed over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and entered the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche over the weekend has rapidly spun up into Tropical Depression Six, according to surface, satellite, and radar data. Satellite loops show that TD 6 is a small storm, and heavy rainfall will be the main threat. Radar images from Alvarado, Mexico show heavy rain bands from TD 6 are already over land, and the 4 – 8 inches of rain TD 6 will bring to the coast is capable of creating flash flooding and dangerous mud slides. The depression has precious little time to develop before moving inland over Mexico near Veracruz early Monday morning, but with low wind shear, warm waters of 30°C, and the topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico to help it spin up, TD 6 will probably be Tropical Storm Fernand Sunday night. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate the depression Sunday evening.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Six as it was organizing, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on August 25, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

I’ll have a more detailed look at the tropics on Monday. It looks like it might be knuckle-gnawing time for residents of the Atlantic’s hurricane alley next week, as an active pattern moves into place for the climatological peak two-week period of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

Spanish (Translated by Google) Español (Traducido por Google)

Depresión Tropical 6 (se Invest 95L)

(Desplácese HACIA Abajo Para La Traducción al español)

(Imagen: wunderground.com) imagen de satélite centrada Storm (Click en la imagen para la fuente)

(Imagen: wunderground.com) Previsión 5 días (Click en la imagen para la fuente)

Última actualización: 25 de agosto de 2013, 22:00:00 (GMT Standard Time)
Viento: 55 KPH
Ubicación: 19.5N 95.5W
Movimiento: W
Presión: 1006 MB
Más información sobre la Depresión Tropical Seis y la temporada 2013 de huracanes del Atlántico del Norte aquí.

Tiempo Lat Lon Wind (mph) Presión tipo Storm
————————————————– ———————-
21 GMT 08/25/13 19.5N 95.5W 35 1006 Depresión Tropical

(Imagen: smn.cna.gob.mx) Radar Alvarado, México (Click en la imagen para la fuente)

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional

Centro Nacional de Huracanes

(Imagen: NHC)

WTNT31 TJSJ 252057
TCPSP1

BOLETÍN
DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO SEIS DE ASESORAMIENTO 1 … CORREGIDO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062013
400 PM CDT dom 25 de agosto 2013

RELOJES corregido y ADVERTENCIAS SECCIÓN

DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL … FORMAS EN LA BAHÍA DEL SUROESTE DE CAMPECHE …
… AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DE EMISIÓN PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE
MEXICO …

RESUMEN DE LAS 400 PM CDT … 2100 UTC … INFORMACIÓN
———————————————-
UBICACIÓN … 19.5N 95.5W
ACERCA DE MI 50 … 80 KM ENE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 35 MPH … 55 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … W O 270 GRADOS A 12 MPH … 19 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1006 MB … 29.71 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA
COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DE VERACRUZ A TAMPICO.

RESUMEN DE LOS RELOJES Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE VERACRUZ NORTE HASTA TAMPICO

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO … EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LA
PROXIMAS 12 A 18 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR MONITOREAR
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 400 PM CDT … 2100 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS FUE
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.5 NORTE … LONGITUD 95.5 OESTE. LA
DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH … 19 KM / H. La
HACIA EL OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE movimiento con alguna disminución en ADELANTE
VELOCIDAD SE ESPERA DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. EN LA PREVISIÓN
TRAYECTORIA … EL CENTRO DEBE CRUZAR LA COSTA DE MEXICO EN LA ATENCIÓN
AREA DE PRIMERA Lunes.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH … 55 KM / H…WITH SUPERIOR
RAFAGAS. LA DEPRESION SE ESPERA QUE CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL ANTES
TIERRA … Y DEBILITAMIENTO comenzará después CENTRO mueve tierra adentro.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MB … 29.71 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
LLUVIA … LA DEPRESION SE PREVÉ QUE PRODUZCA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS DE
RAIN OVER VERACRUZ … HIDALGO … NORTE SUR DE PUEBLA …
TAMAULIPAS … Y ESTE DE SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO … CON AISLADO
CANTIDADES MAXIMAS CERCA DE 12 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR
PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de lodo.

SE ESPERA DE VIENTO … CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA DISTRIBUIR EN LA
COSTA DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN UNAS HORAS.

SIGUIENTE AVISO
————-
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA … 700 PM CDT.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 1000 PM CDT.

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR PASCH / STEWART
Warning Center del tifón común (JTWC)

TSR de inicio de sesión del Atlántico: Alerta de Tormenta emitido al 25 de agosto 2013 21:00 GMT

Depresión Tropical AL06 (AL06) Actualmente se encuentra cerca de 19,5 N 95,5 W se prevé una huelga tierra a la siguiente verosimilitud (s) en el tiempo de espera determinado (s):

Yellow Country Alert (s) o provincia (s)
México
probabilidad de TS es de 60% dentro de 9 horas
Alerta amarilla City (s) y Ciudad (s)
Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
probabilidad de TS es de 60% dentro de 9 horas

Tenga en cuenta que
Alerta amarilla (elevada) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10% y 30% de probabilidad, o TS a por encima de 50% de probabilidad.
CAT 1 significa vientos de huracán de fuerza de por lo menos 74 mph, 119 km / ho 64 nudos 1-min sostenida.
TS significa tormenta tropical vientos de fuerza de por lo menos 39 mph, de 63 km / ho 34 nudos 1-min sostenida.

Para obtener información sobre el pronóstico gráfica y más detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Depresión Tropical Seis formas en el Golfo de México – Wunderground Blog
Publicado por: Dr. Jeff Masters, 21:19 GMT del 25 de agosto 2013

16

La onda tropical que cruzó la península de Yucatán México y entró en el Golfo de México de la Bahía de Campeche el fin de semana ha girado rápidamente en depresión tropical Seis, según la superficie, satélite, radar y datos. Bucles de satélite muestran que TD 6 es una pequeña tormenta y fuertes lluvias serán la principal amenaza. Imágenes de radar de Alvarado, México muestran bandas fuertes lluvias de TD 6 ya están sobre la tierra, y el 4 – 8 pulgadas de lluvia TD 6 traerá a la costa es capaz de crear inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra peligrosos. La depresión tiene muy poco tiempo para desarrollar antes de trasladarse hacia el interior sobre México cerca de Veracruz la madrugada del lunes, pero con baja cizalladura del viento, las aguas cálidas de 30 ° C, y la topografía del sur del Golfo de México para ayudarlo a girar, TD 6 se probablemente la tormenta tropical Fernand domingo por la noche. Un avión caza huracanes Fuerza Aérea investigará el domingo por la noche la depresión.

Figura 1. Imagen de satélite MODIS de la Depresión Tropical Seis, ya que estaba organizando, tomada a las 12:30 pm EDT el 25 de agosto de 2013. Crédito de la imagen: NASA.

Voy a tener una visión más detallada de los trópicos para el Lunes. Parece que podría ser nudillos roer tiempo para los residentes del huracán callejuela próxima semana del Atlántico, como un patrón activo se mueve en su lugar para el pico climatológico período de dos semanas de la temporada de huracanes del Atlántico.

Jeff Masters

Mexico: Post Tropical Cyclone (09E) IVO 252200Z 25.7N 115.3W, moving NNW at 07 mph (JTWC) – 250813 2220z

Post Tropical Cyclone IVO (9E)

(Image: wunderground)
Satellite
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground)
5 Day Forecast
(Click image for source)

(Image: smn.cna.gob.mx)

(Image: smn.cna.gob.mx) Guasave Radar (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

(Image: NHC) Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (Click image for source)

WTPZ34 KNHC 252033
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

…IVO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW…
…MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.7N 115.2W
ABOUT 190 MI…310 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI…235 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH…13 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN TONIGHT
AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH…45
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…THE REMNANTS OF IVO ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES…ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO…BRINGING A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC track (Click image for source)

WTPN31 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (IVO) WARNING NR 014    
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
251800Z — NEAR 25.4N 115.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 115.1W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 26.4N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 26.7N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 26.6N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 26.5N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 115.3W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 11 FEET.
//
NNNN

MARITIME

 

High Seas Forecast (Tropical NE Pacific)

000

FZPN03 KNHC 252102

HSFEP2

 

HIGH SEAS FORECAST

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2230 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013

 

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

 

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE

HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE

MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

 

SECURITE

 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SUN AUG 25.

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON AUG 26.

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE AUG 27.

 

.WARNINGS.

 

.NONE.

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

 

.POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO NEAR 25.7N 115.2W 1003 MB AT 2100

UTC AUG 25 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO

25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 26N TO 28N SE TO

S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST

WATERS WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT

IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO NEAR 26.7N

116.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 150 NM

W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW

SWELL.

.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO NEAR 26.5N

116.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WINDS 20 KT

OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

 

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE

USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE

AND INTENSITY.

 

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N96W 1008 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS

20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR

14.5N99W 1007 MB. WITHIN 150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.

SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR

16.5N104W 1005 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30

KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

 

.18 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM

10N97W TO 06N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN S TO SW

SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM

15N100W TO 09N101W TO 08N109W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9

TO 11 FT IN S TO SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A

LINE FROM 15N100W TO 10N96W TO 03N105W TO 11N123W TO 14N122W TO

10N104W TO 15N100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN S TO SW

SWELL.

 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

 

CONVECTION VALID 2030 UTC SUN AUG 25…

 

.POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO…SCATTERED MODERATE BETWEEN 120

AND 240 NM N QUADRANT.

 

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N96W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG

N OF 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W.

 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N79W TO 10N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N96W TO

10N112W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N125W TO

10N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 270

NM SW OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 89W…WITHIN 120 NM S OF

MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 110W…AND FROM 09N TO 11N W OF

135W.

 

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
METAREA12 / HURRICANE_AD2031VISORY /
WTPZ24 KNHC 252031
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.2W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.2W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.4N 115.7W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT…GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.7N 116.1W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT…GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT…GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.5N 116.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT…GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 115.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

News Reports

Ivo leaves flooding in Loreto; 400 people evacuated

The rains caused the flooding of the river San Telmo, 200 houses were flooded

Ivo Rains during the early hours of Sunday caused the flooding of streams and the evacuation of some 400 people in Loreto. Photo: Javier Chavez

By Gladys Navarro @ gladys_rn

25 / August / 2013 – 11:51

La Paz, Baja California Sur (BCS). Around 200 homes inundated and 400 people evacuated is the balance until the now tropical depression that hit Ivo overnight Saturday and early Sunday morning the town of Loreto, north of Baja California Sur.

According to Civil Protection authorities reported state and municipal-run San Telmo stream caused the preventive evacuation of about 400 people in the colonies Obrera, Palmeiras and Zaragoza’s northern municipality of Loreto.

The head of the Civil Protection Unit, Carlos Enriquez Corner reported that rains in the last hours, especially in the mountainous area, caused the flooding of the stream that reached the colonies of the urban area, so it was necessary to their eviction .

“It rained a lot in the Sierra de la Giganta and that made grow streams on the San Telmo dodo, people living in areas of risk and required safekeeping,” he said.

Civil Protection Director Loreto, Francisco Garcia Duarte, said that of the 400 people evacuated, mostly went to shelter with relatives, but two schools were placed to support them.

He said during this morning continue evaluation paths affected areas.” – octavodia.mx

Spanish (Translated by Google) Español (Traducido por Google)

Publique Ciclón Tropical IVO (9E)

(Imagen: Wunderground)
Satélite
(Click en la imagen para la fuente)

(Imagen: Wunderground)
Previsión de 5 días
(Click en la imagen para la fuente)

(Imagen: smn.cna.gob.mx)

(Imagen: smn.cna.gob.mx) Guasave Radar (Click en la imagen para la fuente)

Aviso Ciclón Tropical en el Pacífico

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional

Centro Nacional de Huracanes

(Imagen: NHC) Relojes / advertencias costeras y 5 días Cono de Storm Center (Pulsar la imagen para la fuente)

WTPZ34 TJSJ 252033
TCPEP4

BOLETÍN
DESPUÉS DE CICLON TROPICAL IVO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP092013
200 PM PDT dom 25 de agosto 2013

… IVO CONVIERTE EN UN REMANENTE BAJA …
HUMEDAD … SIGUE EN NOROESTE DE MEXICO corriente
Y el suroeste de Estados Unidos …

RESUMEN DE LAS 200 PM PDT … 2100 UTC … INFORMACIÓN
———————————————-
UBICACIÓN … 25.7N 115.2W
ACERCA DE MI 190 … 310 KM ONO DE CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ACERCA DE MI 145 … 235 KM S DE PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 30 MPH … 45 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … NNW O 340 GRADOS A 8 MPH … 13 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 200 PM PDT … 2100 UTC … EL CENTRO DE POST-CICLON TROPICAL IVO
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.7 NORTE … LONGITUD 115.2 OESTE. LA
CICLON TROPICAL POST-SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8
MPH … 13 KM / H…AND ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE HASTA
ESTA NOCHE. LA BAJA RESTO SE ESPERA QUE REDUZCA LA VELOCIDAD ESTA NOCHE
Y LUEGO SER CASI ESTACIONARIO EN LUNES.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 30 MPH … 45
KM / H…WITH RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL SE ESPERA DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
LLUVIA … LOS REMANENTES DE IVO SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA TOTALES
ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS … CON POSIBLES AISLADO
CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 5 PULGADAS … TODO EL CENTRO Y NORTE
PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE BAJA CALIFORNIA. HUMEDAD DE ESTE
Sistema también difusión en el suroeste de los Estados Unidos durante
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS … TRAER UNA AMENAZA DE FUERTES LLUVIAS Y FLASH
INUNDACIONES.

SIGUIENTE AVISO
————-
ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA EMITIDA POR EL HURACÁN NACIONAL
CENTRO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA MAYOR INFORMACION SOBRE EL REMANENTE
FAVOR DE BAJA VER PRONOSTICOS DE OLEAJE ALTO EMITIDOS POR EL NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
SERVICIO … BAJO AWIPS ENCABEZADO NFDHSFEPI Y WMO ENCABEZADO FZPN01 KWBC.

$ $
PREDICCIÓN DE BROWN
Warning Center del tifón común (JTWC)

(Imagen: JTWC) TC pista (Click en la imagen para la fuente)

Google Earth Gráfico Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 252200
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / CICLÓN TROPICAL ADVERTENCIA / /
OBS /
1. DEPRESION TROPICAL 09E (IVO) ADVERTENCIA NR 014
01 ACTIVE CICLON TROPICAL EN EASTPAC
Vientos máximos sostenidos basado en el promedio de un minuto
Radio de los vientos VÁLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE

ADVERTENCIA POSICIÓN:
251800Z — CERCA 25.4N 115.1W
MOVIMIENTO ÚLTIMOS SEIS HORAS – 345 GRADOS A 07 KTS
POSICIÓN una precisión de 020 NM
Posición basada en el centro situado POR SATÉLITE
DISTRIBUCION ACTUAL DEL VIENTO:
Vientos máximos sostenidos – 025 KT, ráfagas de 035 KT
Radio de los vientos VÁLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
DISIPAR COMO UN CICLON TROPICAL RELEVANTE SOBRE EL AGUA
REPETIR POSIT: 25.4N 115.1W

Previsiones:
12 HRS, válido en:
260600Z — 26.4N 115.7W
Vientos máximos sostenidos – 025 KT, ráfagas de 035 KT
Radio de los vientos VÁLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
DISIPAR COMO UN CICLON TROPICAL RELEVANTE SOBRE EL AGUA
VECTOR DE 24 POSIT HR: 310 DEG / 02 KTS

24 HRS, válido en:
261800Z — 26.7N 116.1W
Vientos máximos sostenidos – 020 KT, ráfagas de 030 KT
Radio de los vientos VÁLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
DISIPADO COMO CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVA SOBRE EL AGUA
VECTOR DE 36 HR POSIT: 240 º / 01 KTS

36 HRS, válido en:
270600Z — 26.6N 116.3W
Vientos máximos sostenidos – 020 KT, ráfagas de 030 KT
Radio de los vientos VÁLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
DISIPADO COMO CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVA SOBRE EL AGUA
VECTOR DE 48 POSIT HR: 240 º / 01 KTS

Perspectiva extendida:
48 HRS, válido en:
271800Z — 26.5N 116.5W
Vientos máximos sostenidos – 020 KT, ráfagas de 030 KT
Radio de los vientos VÁLIDO SOBRE EL AGUA ABIERTO SOLAMENTE
DISIPADO COMO CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVA SOBRE EL AGUA

OBSERVACIONES:
POSICIÓN 252200Z CERCA 25.7N 115.3W.
DEPRESION TROPICAL 09E (IVO), situado a unos 450 NM
SUR-sudeste DE SAN DIEGO, ha rastreado NORTE-NOROESTE
A 07 NUDOS EN LOS ÚLTIMOS SEIS HORAS. ÉSTE ES EL FINAL DE ADVERTENCIA
ESTE SISTEMA DEL CONJUNTO TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. EL SISTEMA
Estará estrechamente monitorizados para detectar signos de regeneración. MÁXIMO
Altura de las olas AT 251800Z ES 11 PIES.
/ /
NNNN
MARÍTIMO

High Seas Pronóstico (Tropical NE del Pacífico)

000

FZPN03 TJSJ 252102

HSFEP2

ALTA MAR PRONOSTICO

NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL

2230 UTC dom 25 de agosto 2013

SUSTITUIDO POR EXPEDICIÓN AL LADO DE 6 HORAS

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio

ALTURA DE LA MÁS ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuales pueden ser

Más del doble de altura de ola significativa.

Sécurité

E PACIFICO DEL ECUADOR PARA 30N E DE 140W.

SINOPSIS VÁLIDO 1800 UTC dom 25 de agosto.

24 HOUR 1800 UTC Pronóstico válido lun 26 de agosto.

48 HOUR 1800 UTC Pronóstico válido mar 27 de agosto.

. ADVERTENCIAS.

. NINGUNO.

. SINOPSIS Y PRONÓSTICO.

. POST-TROPICAL REMANENTE BAJA CERCA DE IVO 25.7N 115.2W 1003 MB AT 2100

UTC 25 de agosto MUEVE NNW O 340 GRADOS A 7 KT. MÁXIMO SOSTENIDO

VIENTOS RAFAGAS 25 KT 35 KT. DENTRO DE 150 NM E semicírculo VIENTOS DE 20 A

25 KT. OLEAJE DE 8 A 11 FT. GOLFO DE CALIFORNIA DE 26N A 28N SE A

S VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT. OLEAJE A 8 FT. EN OTRA PARTE SOBRE PREVISIONES

AGUAS EN 240 NM CENTRO DE VIENTO 20 KT o menos. SEAS A 9 FT

EN UNA MEZCLA DE AMPLIO hincharse.

0.24 hora Pronóstico POST-TROPICAL IVO REMANENTE BAJA CERCA 26.7N

116.1W. Vientos sostenidos máximos de 20 RAFAGAS DE 30 KT KT. DENTRO DE 150 NM

W SEMICÍRCULO VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior. SEAS 8 pies de MIXTO SE Y NO

Hincharse.

0.48 hora Pronóstico POST-TROPICAL IVO REMANENTE BAJA CERCA 26.5N

116.5W. Vientos sostenidos máximos de 20 RAFAGAS DE 30 KT KT. VIENTOS 20 KT

O MENOS. SEAS menos de 8 FT.

0.72 hora Pronóstico … disipado.

VIENTOS DE PREDICCIÓN EN Y CERCA DE CICLONES TROPICALES activa debe

Usar con precaución debido a la incertidumbre en TRAYECTORIA … TAMAÑO

E INTENSIDAD.

PRES. BAJA CERCA 14N96W 1008 MB. DENTRO DE 120 NM cuadrante NE VIENTOS

20 A 25 KT. SEAS A 9 FT.

0.24 hora Pronóstico PRES BAJO … CICLÓN TROPICAL CERCA POSIBLE …

14.5N99W 1007 MB. DENTRO DE 150 NM NE semicírculo VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT.

OLEAJE DE 8 A 10 PIES.

0.48 hora Pronóstico PRES BAJO … CICLÓN TROPICAL CERCA POSIBLE …

16.5N104W 1005 MB. DENTRO DE 180 NM NE semicírculo VIENTOS DE 20 A 30

KT. OLEAJE DE 8 A 11 FT.

0.18 hora Pronóstico para el plazo de 180 NM a cada lado de una línea del

10N97W A 06N106W VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior. Mar a 9 pies de S a SW

Hincharse.

0.24 hora Pronóstico POCO CAMBIO.

0.48 hora Pronóstico para el plazo de 120 NM a cada lado de una línea del

15N100W A 09N101W A 08N109W S a SW VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT. SEAS 9

A 11 pies de S a SW hincharse. Otro punto de un área limitada por una

LÍNEA DE 15N100W A 10N96W A 03N105W A 11N123W A 14N122W A

10N104W A 15N100W VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior. Mar a 9 pies de S a SW

Hincharse.

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior. SEAS menos de 8 FT.

CONVECCIÓN VÁLIDO 2030 UTC dom 25 de agosto …

. POST-TROPICAL REMANENTE BAJA IVO … DISPERSARAN moderada entre 120

Y 240 NM N cuadrante.

PRES. BAJA CERCA 14N96W … DISPERSOS.LUEGO MODERADA FUERTE AISLADO

N DE 08N ENTRE 92W Y 100W.

. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCIA ZONE / vaguada monzónica …

MONZÓN DEL CANAL DE 09N79W A 10N86W A PRESIÓN BAJA CERCA A 14N96W

10N112W RESUME LUEGO DE 14N120W DE BAJA PRESIÓN DE CERCA 15N125W

10N140W. NO AXIS ITCZ ​​está presente. DISPERSADAS MODERADO EN 270

NM SW DE MONZÓN DEL CANAL ENTRE 80W Y 89W … DENTRO DE 120 NM S DE

MONZÓN canal entre 100 W y 110 W … Y DE 09N A 11N W DE

135W.

$ $

. PRONOSTICADOR LEWITSKY. CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES.

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_AD2031VISORY /
WTPZ24 TJSJ 252031
TCMEP4

DESPUÉS DE CICLON TROPICAL IVO PRONÓSTICO / ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP092013
2100 UTC dom 25 de agosto 2013

NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

CENTRO DE CICLON TROPICAL POST-LOCALIZADO CERCA 25.7N 115.2W AT 25/2100Z
POSICIÓN CORRECTA EN 20 NM

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE O 340 GRADOS A 7 KT

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA 1.003 MB
Vientos máximos sostenidos de 25 KT CON RAFAGAS HASTA 35 KT.
VIENTO Y OLEAJE varían mucho en cada cuadrante. RADIOS EN NÁUTICA
MILES SON LOS RADIOS DE ESPERA MÁS GRANDE EN CUALQUIER LUGAR EN QUE cuadrante.

REPEAT … CENTRO UBICADO CERCA 25.7N 115.2W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA 25.4N 115.1W

Pronóstico válido 26/0600Z 26.4N 115.7W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 25 KT … RAFAGAS DE 35 KT.

Pronóstico válido 26/1800Z 26.7N 116.1W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 20 KT … RAFAGAS DE 30 KT.

Pronóstico válido 27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 20 KT … RAFAGAS DE 30 KT.

Pronóstico válido 27/1800Z 26.5N 116.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJA
MAX WIND 20 KT … RAFAGAS DE 30 KT.

Pronóstico válido 28/1800Z…DISSIPATED

SOLICITUD DE 3 INFORMES DEL BUQUE POR HORA EN 300 MILLAS DE 25.7N 115.2W

Esta es la última Predicciones / advertencias EMITIDA POR EL HURACÁN NACIONAL
CENTRO DE ESTE SISTEMA. INFORMACIÓN ADICIONAL SOBRE EL REMANENTE BAJA
Se puede encontrar en PRONOSTICOS DE OLEAJE ALTO EMITIDOS POR EL NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
SERVICIO … BAJO AWIPS ENCABEZADO NFDHSFEPI Y WMO ENCABEZADO FZPN01 KWBC.

$ $
PREDICCIÓN DE BROWN
Los informes de prensa
Ivo deja inundaciones en Loreto, 400 personas evacuadas

Las lluvias causaron el desbordamiento del río San Telmo, se inundaron 200 casas
Las lluvias Ivo durante las primeras horas del domingo provocaron la inundación de los arroyos y la evacuación de unas 400 personas en Loreto. Foto: Javier Chávez

Por Gladys Navarro @ gladys_rn

25 / agosto / 2013 – once y cincuenta y un

“La Paz, Baja California Sur (BCS). Alrededor de 200 casas inundadas y 400 personas evacuadas es el balance hasta que la depresión tropical que azotó hoy Ivo noche a la mañana el sábado y el domingo por la mañana la ciudad de Loreto, al norte de Baja California Sur.

De acuerdo con autoridades de Protección Civil informó arroyo San Telmo estatales y municipales de gestión provocó la evacuación preventiva de unas 400 personas en las colonias Obrera, Palmeiras y el norteño municipio de Zaragoza de Loreto.

El jefe de la Unidad de Protección Civil, Carlos Enríquez Rincón informó que las lluvias de las últimas horas, especialmente en la zona montañosa, causaron el desbordamiento del río que llegó a las colonias de la zona urbana, por lo que era necesario para su desalojo.

“Llovió mucho en la Sierra de la Giganta y que hizo crecer los arroyos en el San Telmo dodo, las personas que viven en zonas de riesgo y custodia requerida”, dijo.

El director de Protección Civil de Loreto, Francisco García Duarte, señaló que de las 400 personas evacuadas, la mayoría se fueron a un refugio con familiares, pero dos escuelas fueron colocados para apoyarlos.

Dijo que durante esta mañana siguen caminos evaluación de las zonas afectadas “-. Octavodia.mx

Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm GIL 7E 031000Z near 14.9N 131.5W, moving W at 10 knots. (JTWC) – 030813 1015z

Tropical Storm GIL

 

 

 

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

 

 

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

 

 

 

(Image: NHC) Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (Click image for source)

 

 

WTPZ32 KNHC 030840
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

…GIL WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.9N 131.4W
ABOUT 1510 MI…2425 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1595 MI…2570 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 131.4 WEST. GIL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB…29.50 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GIL) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
030600Z — NEAR 14.9N 131.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 131.0W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z — 15.0N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 14.8N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z — 14.5N 135.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 14.0N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z — 13.3N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z — 13.0N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 13.0N 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 131.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 07E (GIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1409 NM EASTWARD
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
//
NNNN

 

 

 

Maritime

 

 

 

High Seas Forecast (Tropical NE Pacific)

 

 

000

FZPN03 KNHC 030925

HSFEP2

 

HIGH SEAS FORECAST

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1030 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013

 

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

 

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE

HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE

MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

 

SECURITE

 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

 

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT AUG 03.

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN AUG 04.

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON AUG 05.

 

.WARNINGS.

 

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TROPICAL STORM GIL NEAR 14.9N 131.4W 999 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 03

MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT

GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N

SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN

90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.

ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33

KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GIL NEAR 14.8N 134.0W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE

WITHIN 200 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS

8 TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GIL NEAR 14.0N 137.0W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS

TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES

WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GIL NEAR 13.3N 140.0W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR

GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.

.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GIL NEAR 13.0N 142.0W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL NEAR 13.0N 145.5W.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

 

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE

USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE

AND INTENSITY.

 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

 

.LOW PRES AT 13N121W 1009 MB. WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20

TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR

13N124W 1009 MB. WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.

SEAS TO 9 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR

13N127W 1009 MB. WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS

TO 9 FT.

 

.FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT

IN MIXED SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MERGE WITH TROPICAL STORM GIL.

 

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC SAT AUG 03…

 

.TROPICAL STORM GIL…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 100 NM

N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE.

 

.LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB AT 13N121W…SCATTERED MODERATE TO

STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S QUADRANT.

 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 10N105W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES AT

13N121W TO 13N127W. ITCZ FROM 13N135W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED

MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 123W TO 127W.

 

$$

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

 

 

Photos from Mexico’s National Pyrotechnic Festival

TwistedSifter

National Pyrotechnic Festival tultepec mexico (4)

 

The National Pyrotechnic Festival is an annual event that takes place in Tultepec, Mexico. The festival promotes the country’s tradition of production and use of fireworks in honour of John of God, the patron saint of fireworks makers. Tultepec produces about half of all Mexico’s fireworks.

The main event, a parade of “toritos” or bull-shaped frames with fireworks on them, began in the mid 19th century. The modern national festival began in 1989 and includes various events including fireworks competitions, but the main event remains that of the toritos, with about 250 “running” along the streets of Tultepec in 2013. [Source]

 

National Pyrotechnic Festival tultepec mexico (2)

 

Feria Nacional de la Pirotecnia Tultepec

 
The National Pyrotechnic Festival lasts for nine days and attracts more than 100,000 visitors to the municipality. Although the event started…

View original post 339 more words

Mexico: Invest 96E Tropical Depression expected to form today or tomorrow (NHC) – 290613 1450z

Invest 96E

(image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

National Hurricane Center

(Image: NHC) Eastern Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Click image for source)

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER…ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM TODAY
OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…90 PERCENT…OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TCFA Graphic (Click image for source)

WTPN21 PHNC 282000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 104.5W TO 17.6N 105.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
281800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
104.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8N 104.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED UNDERNEATH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION. A 281503Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE
CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND INDICATES FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 281601Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED 15-20
KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW (5 TO 10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292000Z.//
NNNN

Tracking Info For Invest 96E

(wunderground.com)

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
————————————————————-
06 GMT 06/27/13 10.0N 101.3W 20 1010 Invest
12 GMT 06/27/13 10.5N 103.0W 20 1009 Invest
18 GMT 06/27/13 10.0N 103.0W 20 1009 Invest
00 GMT 06/28/13 10.5N 103.3W 20 1009 Invest
12 GMT 06/28/13 10.7N 104.1W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 06/28/13 10.7N 104.1W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 06/28/13 10.7N 104.1W 25 1009 Invest
18 GMT 06/28/13 10.8N 104.3W 25 1008 Invest
00 GMT 06/29/13 10.8N 104.6W 25 1008 Invest
06 GMT 06/29/13 11.1N 104.5W 25 1008 Invest
06 GMT 06/29/13 10.8N 104.4W 25 1008 Invest
12 GMT 06/29/13 11.6N 103.8W 25 1008 Invest
12 GMT 06/29/13 11.6N 103.8W 25 1008 Invest

MARITIME

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 291130
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC SAT JUN 29 2013

CCODE/1:31:12:01:00/AOW+POR/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUN 29.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUN 30.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 01.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 49N169E 978 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 360 NM E AND SE AND
240 NM N AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 840 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N177E 977 MB. WITHIN 360 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 540 NM OF
LOW EXCEPT N QUADRANT AND BETWEEN 540 NM AND 780 NM NE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N173W 981 MB. WITHIN 480 NM S AND 240 NM
SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 660 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 360 NM E
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 34N165E 1013 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 36N171E 1012 MB. WITHIN 120 NM E OF A LINE
FROM 45N174W TO 39N178E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. WITHIN 300 NM E OF A LINE FROM
50N167W TO 36N174E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N160E 1008 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N161E 1010 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. WITHIN 180 NM N OF A LINE FROM
32N160E TO 35N168E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 47N143W 1007 MB MOVING E 10 KT. WITHIN 300 NM SW AND S
QUADRANTS AND BETWEEN 480 NM AND 600 NM E QUADRANT WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N138W 1008 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N138W. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 33N TO 40N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 40N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W AREA OF
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 40N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W AREA OF
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 36N TO 62N BETWEEN 160W AND
169E…FROM 46N TO 56N BETWEEN 157W AND 144W AND FROM 37N TO 48N
BETWEEN 131W AND 127W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 39N TO 64N BETWEEN 170E AND
160W AND FROM 47N TO 56N BETWEEN 157W AND 145W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 54N BETWEEN 148W AND
170W AND OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 46N170E TO
57N157W.

.HIGH 36N165W 1027 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N166W 1026 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N165W 1029 MB.

.HIGH 56N154W 1024 MB MOVING SE 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 54N151W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 43N124W 1021 MB DRIFTING S.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 34N131W 1022 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N132W 1020 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SAT JUN 29.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUN 30.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON JUL 01.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.REMNANT LOW COSME AT 22N131W 1007 MB. WITHIN 270 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
15N BETWEEN 125W AND 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW PRES NEAR 22N137W 1010 MB. N OF
20N W OF LINE 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW
AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW PRES W OF AREA. WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW PRES AT 11N105W 1008 MB. WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
14N104W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
17N105W 1000 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS
9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC SAT JUN 29…

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES AT 12N127W TO
12N110W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 86W TO 95W AND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN
106W AND 112W.

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUN 29 2013.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUN 30 2013.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 01 2013.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N144W TO 28N151W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO 27N160W. COLD FRONT MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT MOVED NE OF AREA. WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 30N142W TO 28N150W TO 27N163W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED.

.TROUGH FROM 12N164E TO 03N161E MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG
TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MOVED W OF AREA.

.TROUGH FROM 08N168W TO 05N174W TO 03N179E MOVING W SLOWLY.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 08N175W TO 03N180W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 09N179W TO 02N179E.

.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 23N140W TO 16N142W.

.RIDGE FROM 30N180E TO 26N170E TO 23N160E NEARLY STATIONARY.

.RIDGE FROM 29N140W TO 27N148W NEARLY STATIONARY.

.WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ENTIRE AREA.

.SEAS 9 TO 10 FT N OF A LINE FROM 30N168E TO 29N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 FT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 FT OR LESS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA

.OTHERWISE SEAS 8 FT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF AREA.

.ITCZ FROM 05N140W TO 09N156W TO 08N164W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ W OF 150W.

$$
.FORECASTER POWELL. HONOLULU HI.=

Spanish (Google translation):

Invertir 96E

(Pulsa en la imagen para la fuente) Storm-Centered Imagen de satlite: (wunderground.com imagen)

Centro Nacional de Huracanes

(Imagen: NHC) del Pacfico Oriental Tropical Weather Outlook grfica (Click en la imagen para la fuente)

ZCZC MIATWOEP TODO
TTAA00 TJSJ ddhhmm

PERSPECTIVA DE TIEMPO TROPICAL
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT sb 29 de junio 2013

PARA EL PACFICO NORORIENTAL … AL ESTE DE 140 grados de longitud oeste ..

1. DUCHA Y ACTIVIDAD DE TORMENTA ASOCIADA CON UN AREA DE BAJA
PRESIN centrada alrededor de 450 millas al suroeste de Acapulco MEXICO TIENE
Cambiado poco en los PASADAS HORAS. SIN EMBARGO … MEDIO AMBIENTE
CONDICIONES FAVORABLES PARA PERMANECER EN DEPRESION TROPICAL PARA FORMAR HOY
O maana. ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UNA OPORTUNIDAD DE ALTA … DE 90 POR CIENTO …
SE CONVIERTA EN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE
GENERALMENTE HACIA EL NORTE A ALREDEDOR DE 5 MPH.

EN OTRA PARTE … FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL NO SE ESPERA DURANTE EL
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN
NNNN
Warning Center del tifn comn (JTWC)

(Imagen: JTWC) FCF grfico (Click en la imagen para la fuente)

Google Earth Grfico Overlay

WTPN21 PHNC 282000
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI / /
SUBJ / CICLN TROPICAL FORMACIN DE ALERTA / /
OBS /
1. FORMACIN DE UN CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVO ES POSIBLE DENTRO
140 NM a cada lado de una lnea desde 10.0N 104.5W A 17.6N 105.3W
DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. DATOS DISPONIBLES no justifica
EMISIN DE NMERO AVISOS DE CICLONES TROPICALES EN ESTE MOMENTO. VIENTOS
EN LA ZONA Se estima que hay 15 A 20 NUDOS. MetSat IMGENES EN
281800Z INDICA QUE UN CENTRO DE CIRCULACION SE ENCUENTRA CERCA 10.8N
104.3W. EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A 02 NUDOS.
2. OBSERVACIONES: Es un rea de la conveccin ha persistido CERCA 10.8N 104.3W,
APROXIMADAMENTE 500 NM al sur-suroeste de Acapulco, MEXICO. RECIENTE
ANIMADO IMAGENES DE SATELITE MULTIESPECTRAL INDICA UNA CONSOLIDACIN
BAJO NIVEL DE CIRCULACIN CENTER (LLCC) situado debajo PERSISTENTE
Conveccin profunda. A 281503Z SSMIS MICROONDAS imagen muestra el
CONSOLIDACIN Y LLCC INDICA FORMATIVA convectivas ANILLAMIENTO TRAVES
LA PERIFERIA DEL NORTE. Un PASS dispersometra 281601Z INDICADO 15-20
Nudos de viento que rodea la LLCC. ANLISIS DE NIVEL SUPERIOR INDICA BUENA
Divergencia arriba, as como la baja (de 5 a 10 KTS) VERTICAL CORTE DEL VIENTO.
Vientos mximos sostenidos en la superficie se estiman entre 15 y 20
NUDOS. MINIMO NIVEL DEL MAR DE PRESION SE ESTIMA QUE ESTAR CERCA 1009 MB.
DEBIDO AL AUMENTO DE CONSOLIDACIN DE LA LLCC Y PROFUNDO CONVECTIVO
BANDAS A LO LARGO DE LA PERIFERIA DEL NORTE, EL POTENCIAL PARA LA
DESARROLLO DE UN CICLON TROPICAL SIGNIFICATIVO EN EL PRXIMO 24
HORAS es alto.
3. Esta alerta ser publicada nuevamente pasaron a ADVERTENCIA O CANCELADO POR
292000Z. / /
NNNN
Informacin de Seguimiento Para Invest 96E

(Wunderground.com)

Tiempo Lat Lon Wind (mph) Presin tipo Storm
————————————————– ———–
06 GMT 27/06/13 10.0N 101.3W 20 1010 Invest
12 GMT 27/06/13 10.5N 103.0W 20 1009 Invest
18 GMT 27/06/13 10.0N 103.0W 20 1009 Invest
00 GMT 06/28/13 10.5N 103.3W 20 1009 Invest
12 GMT 06/28/13 10.7N 104.1W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 06/28/13 10.7N 104.1W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 06/28/13 10.7N 104.1W 25 1009 Invest
18 GMT 06/28/13 10.8N 104.3W 25 1008 Invest
00 GMT 06/29/13 10.8N 104.6W 25 1008 Invest
06 GMT 06/29/13 11.1N 104.5W 25 1008 Invest
06 GMT 06/29/13 10.8N 104.4W 25 1008 Invest
12 GMT 06/29/13 11.6N 103.8W 25 1008 Invest
12 GMT 06/29/13 11.6N 103.8W 25 1008 Invest
MARTIMO

METAREA12 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1130

FZPN02 KWBC 291130
HSFEPI

ALTA MAR pronstico para METAREA XII
NWS MAR CENTRO DE PREDICCIONES WASHINGTON DC
1145 UTC sb 29 de junio 2013

CCODE / 1:31:12:01:00 / AOW + POR / NWS / CCODE
SUSTITUIDO POR EXPEDICIN AL LADO DE 6 HORAS

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio
ALTURA DE LA MS ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuo puede
Ser ms que dos veces la altura de ola significante.

Scurit

PACFICO N DE 30N Y S DE 67N E DE UNA LNEA DE BERING STRAIT
A 50N 160E

SINOPSIS VLIDO 0600 UTC 29 de junio.
24 HORAS Pronstico vlido 0600 UTC 30 de junio.
48 HORAS Pronstico vlido 0600 UTC 01 de julio.

. ADVERTENCIAS.

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …
. BAJA 49N169E 978 MB MUEVE NE 15 KT. DENTRO DE 360 NM E Y SE Y
240 NM N y NW cuadrantes VIENTOS DE 30 A 40 KT. OLEAJE DE 12 A 21 FT.
Otro punto de 480 nm de centro, salvo 840 NM SE CUADRANTE
VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT. OLEAJE DE 8 A 14 FT.
0.24 hora Pronstico BAJOS 54N177E 977 MB. DENTRO DE 360 NM S SEMICRCULO
VIENTOS DE 30 A 40 KT. SEAS 14 a 23 pies. Otro punto de 540 nm de
Baja, excepto N CUADRANTE Y ENTRE 540 nm y 780 nm NE QUADRANT
VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT. OLEAJE DE 8 A 15 FT.
0.48 hora Pronstico BAJOS 59N173W 981 MB. DENTRO DE 480 NM S y 240 NM
SE CUADRANTES VIENTOS DEL 25 AL 35 KT. SEAS 12 a 20 pies. OTRO MS
AGUAS DE PREDICCIN EN 660 NM S SEMICRCULO y 360 NM E
Semicrculos VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT. OLEAJE DE 8 A 14 FT.

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …
BAJA. 34N165E 1013 MB MOVIMIENTO NE 25 KT. DENTRO DE 120 NM SE CUADRANTE
VIENTOS DE HASTA 25 KT. OLEAJE A 8 FT.
0.12 hora Pronstico BAJOS 36N171E 1012 MB. DENTRO DE 120 NM E DE UNA LNEA
DE 45N174W AL VIENTO 39N178E 25 A 35 KT. OLEAJE DE 9 A 13 FT.
0.24 hora Pronstico BAJA disipado. DENTRO DE 300 NM E DE UNA LNEA DE
50N167W AL VIENTO 36N174E 20 A 30 KT. OLEAJE DE 8 A 12 FT.
0.48 CONDICIONES DE PREDICCIN HORA disminuido.

GALE … ADVERTENCIA …
0.24 hora Pronstico BAJOS 31N160E 1008 MB. DENTRO DE 360 NM NE QUADRANT
VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT. SEAS A 9 FT.
0.36 hora Pronstico BAJOS 31N161E 1010 MB. DENTRO DE 180 NM NE QUADRANT
VIENTOS DE 25 A 35 KT. SEAS A 10 FT.
0.48 hora Pronstico BAJA disipado. DENTRO DE 180 NM N DE UNA LNEA DE
32N160E A 35N168E VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT. SEAS A 10 FT.

. SINOPSIS Y PRONSTICO.

. BAJA 47N143W 1007 MB MOVIMIENTO E 10 KT. DENTRO DE 300 NM SW Y S
CUADRANTES y entre 480 nm y 600 nm cuadrante E vientos 25
KT. SEAS menos de 8 FT.
0.24 hora Pronstico BAJOS 48N138W 1008 MB. DENTRO DE 240 NM NW
SEMICIRCULO VIENTOS DE 25 KT. OLEAJE A 8 FT.
0.48 hora Pronstico 48N138W BAJO. Vientos del NE a 25 KT. SEAS MENOS
De 8 pies.

. DE 33N A 40N ENTRE 121W 125W Y NO LOS VIENTOS DE HASTA 25 KT. SEAS
A 8 FT.
0.24 HORA PREVISTA DE 31N A 40N ENTRE 120W 126W Y AREA DE
NW VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT. SEAS A 11 FT.
0.48 HORA PREVISTA DE 30N A 40N ENTRE 120W 125W Y AREA DE
NW VIENTOS DE 20 A 30 KT. SEAS A 11 FT.

. Densa niebla. VSBY menor que 1 nm DE 36N A 62N ENTRE 160W Y
169E … DE 46N A 56N ENTRE 157W Y 144W Y DE 37N A 48N
Y ENTRE 131W 127W.
0.24 hora Pronstico densa niebla DE 39N A 64N ENTRE 170E Y
160W Y DE 47N A 56N ENTRE 157W Y 145W.
0.48 hora Pronstico densa niebla DE 40N A 54N ENTRE 148W Y
170W Y PREVISIONES SOBRE AGUAS N DE UNA LNEA DE 46N170E A
57N157W.

. HIGH 36N165W 1027 MB casi estacionario.
0.24 hora Pronstico ALTA 37N166W 1026 MB.
0.48 hora Pronstico ALTA 37N165W 1029 MB.

. HIGH 56N154W 1024 MB SE MUEVE 10 KT.
0.24 hora Pronstico ALTA 54N151W 1022 MB.
0.48 hora Pronstico HIGH disipado.

. HIGH 43N124W 1021 MB DERIVA S.
0.24 hora Pronstico HIGH disipado.

. HIGH 34N131W 1022 MB casi estacionario.
0.24 hora Pronstico ALTA 34N132W 1020 MB.
0.48 hora Pronstico HIGH disipado.

. PRONOSTICADOR Musonda. OCANO Centro de Prediccin.

CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL

E PACIFICO DEL ECUADOR PARA 30N E DE 140W.

SINOPSIS VLIDO 0000 UTC Sab Jun 29.
24 HOUR 0000 UTC Pronstico vlido dom 30 de junio.
48 HOUR 0000 UTC Pronstico vlido lun 01 de julio.

. ADVERTENCIAS.

. NINGUNO.

. SINOPSIS Y PRONSTICO

. COSME REMANENTE BAJA EN 22N131W 1007 MB. DENTRO DE 270 NM N
SEMICIRCULO VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT. OLEAJE DE 9 A 12 FT. EN OTRA PARTE N de
15N ENTRE 125W 137W Y VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior. OLEAJE DE 8 A 10 M
EN MEZCLA SW y NW hincharse.
0.24 hora Pronstico para Remanente PRES BAJO CERCA 22N137W 1010 MB. N DE
20N W DE LINEA 134W VIENTOS 20 kt o inferior. SEAS A 9 FT EN MEZCLA SW
Y NO hincharse.
0.48 hora Pronstico REMANENTE BAJA PRES W DEL AREA. VIENTOS 20 kt o
MENOS. SEAS menos de 8 FT.

PRES. BAJA EN 11N105W 1008 MB. DENTRO DE 150 NM E semicrculo VIENTOS
20 A 25 KT. SEAS A 9 FT.
0.24 hora Pronstico PRES BAJO … CICLN TROPICAL CERCA POSIBLE …
14N104W 1005 MB. DENTRO DE 240 NM SE semicrculo VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT.
OLEAJE DE 8 A 11 FT.
0.48 hora Pronstico PRES BAJO … CICLN TROPICAL CERCA POSIBLE …
17N105W MB 1000. DENTRO DE 120 NM VIENTOS DEL CENTRO DE 25 A 30 KT. SEAS
9 A 12 FT. Otro punto de 240 NM NW y 150 NM SW semicrculos
VIENTOS DE 20 A 25 KT. OLEAJE DE 8 A 10 PIES.

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior. SEAS menos de 8 FT.

CONVECCIN VLIDO 0900 UTC sb 29 de junio …

. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCIA ZONE / vaguada monznica …
MONZN DEL CANAL DE 11N86W a 1008 MB PRES BAJO EN 12N127W A
12N110W A 07N140W. DISPERSADAS MODERADA A FUERTE EN 180 NM
Cada lado del eje desde 86W 95W Y DE 06N A 12N ENTRE
106W Y 112W.

DGS. Pronosticador. CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES.

SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA HONOLULU HI
PACFICO NORTE ECUADOR A 30N ENTRE 140W Y 160E

SINOPSIS VLIDO 0600 UTC 29 de junio 2013.
24 HORAS Pronstico vlido 0600 UTC 30 de junio 2013.
48 HORAS Pronstico vlido 0600 UTC 01 de julio 2013.

. ADVERTENCIAS.

. NINGUNO.

. SINOPSIS Y PRONSTICO.

. COLD FRONT DE 30N144W 28N151W PARA CONTINUAR COMO FIJO
FRENTE AL 27N160W. Frente fro E 10 KT.
0.24 hora Pronstico FRENTE FRO MOVIDO NE DE AREA. DBIL ESTACIONARIO
FRENTE DE 30N142W A 28N150W A 27N163W.
0.48 hora Pronstico FRONT disipado.

. CANAL DE 12N164E PARA MUDANZAS 03N161E W 15 KT. DISPERSADAS FUERTE
Lluvias dentro de los 150 Nm de canal.
0.24 hora Pronstico CANAL MOVIDO W DEL AREA.

. CANAL DE 08N168W A 05N174W PARA MUDANZAS 03N179E W LENTAMENTE.
Lluvias MODERADO AISLADAS EN 120 NM DE CANAL.
0.24 hora Pronstico CANAL DE 08N175W A 03N180W.
0.48 hora Pronstico CANAL DE 09N179W A 02N179E.

0.48 hora Pronstico CANAL DE 23N140W A 16N142W.

. RIDGE DE 30N180E A 26N170E A 23N160E CASI ESTACIONARIO.

. RIDGE DE 29N140W A 27N148W CASI ESTACIONARIO.

. VIENTOS 20 KT O REA TOTAL MENOS.

. OLEAJE DE 9 A 10 PIES N DE UNA LNEA DE 30N168E A 29N160E.
0.24 hora Pronstico SEAS 8 FT O PRONSTICOS DE REA MENOS entero.
0.48 hora Pronstico SEAS 8 FT O MENOS DE PRONSTICOS DE REA TOTAL

OTRO. SEAS 8 FT O MENOS POR EL RESTO DEL AREA.

. ZCIT DE 05N140W A 09N156W A 08N164W. AISLADO MODERADO
Lluvias DENTRO DE 90 NM ZCIT W DE 150W.

$ $
. PRONOSTICADOR Powell. HONOLULU HI. =

Mexico: Tropical Storm (03E) COSME weakens, likely to become remnant low later today – 270613 1620z

Tropical Storm Cosme

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

National Hurricane Center

(Image: NHC) Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (Click image for source)

WTPZ33 KNHC 271440
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013

…COSME CONTINUES TO WEAKEN…
…LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.4N 120.9W
ABOUT 725 MI…1170 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH COSME HAS DISSIPATED…AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY COSME ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ACAPULCO TO LOS MOCHIS…AND
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

MARITIME

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1440

WTPZ23 KNHC 271440
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
1500 UTC THU JUN 27 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 120.9W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 120.9W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 120.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 123.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.4N 125.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 128.4W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 135.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 139.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 120.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Spanish (Bing translation):

WTPZ33 KNHC 271440
TCPEP3

 

BOLETN
TORMENTA TROPICAL COSME ASESOR NMERO 17
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP032013
800 AM PDT JUE 27 DE JUNIO DE 2013

 

…COSME SIGUE DEBILITA…
…PROBABILIDADES DE CONVERTIRSE EN UNA BAJA DE REMANENTE HOY MS ADELANTE…
RESUMEN DE 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC… INFORMACIN
———————————————-
UBICACIN…20.4N 120.9W
UNOS 725 MI…1170 KM OSO DE CABO SAN LUCAS MXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL…ONO O 285 GRADOS A 16 MILLAS POR HORA…26 KM/H
PRESIN MNIMA CENTRAL…1003 MB…29,62 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
——————–
EXISTEN ADVERTENCIAS NI RELOJES COSTEROS EN EFECTO.
DISCUSIN Y PERSPECTIVAS DE 48 HORAS
——————————
800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL COSME FUE
SITUADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20,4 NORTE…120.9 DE LONGITUD OESTE. COSME ES
MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH…26 KM/H. UN GIRO
HACIA EL OESTE, SE ESPERA QUE DURANTE EL DA SIGUIENTE O.

 

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CASI 40 MPH…65 KM/H…
CON RACHAS SUPERIORES. IMGENES SATELITALES MUESTRAN QUE LA TEMPESTAD DE TRUENOS
ACTIVIDAD ASOCIADA A COSME HA DISIPADO…Y EL SISTEMA ES
ESPERA QUE DEGENERAN EN UNA ZONA DE REMANENTE DE BAJA PRESIN MS TARDE
HOY EN DA.

 

VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS…140 KM
PRINCIPALMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO.

 

LA PRESIN CENTRAL MNIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MB…29,62 PULGADAS.
RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
SURF…GRANDES OLEAJES GENERADOS POR COSME ESTN AFECTANDO A LAS PORCIONES DE LA
PACFICO COSTA DE MXICO DE ACAPULCO CERCA A LOS MOCHIS…Y
LA PENNSULA DE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. ESTN PROBABLES QUE ESTAS OLAS
CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS OLAS Y CORRIENTE DE RESACA PARA EL DA SIGUIENTE O
.
ASESOR PRXIMO
————-
ASESORAMIENTO COMPLETO SIGUIENTE…200 PM PDT.

 

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN

MARTIMO

 

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1440

 

WTPZ23 KNHC 271440
TCMEP3

 

TORMENTA TROPICAL COSME PRONSTICO Y ASESORAMIENTO NMERO 17
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP032013
1500 UTC JUE 27 DE JUNIO DE 2013

 

EXISTEN ADVERTENCIAS NI RELOJES COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

 

TORMENTA TROPICAL CENTRO SITUADO CERCA DE 20.4N 120.9W EN 27/1500Z
POSICIN EXACTA DENTRO DE 20 NM

 

PRESENTE MOVIMIENTO HACIA LOS OESTE-NOROESTE O 285 GRADOS A 14 KT

 

LA PRESIN CENTRAL MNIMA ESTIMADA 1003 MB
MAX SOSTENIDO VIENTOS 35 KT, CON RFAGAS DE HASTA 45 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
MARES DE 12 PIES…300NE 300SE 240SW 240NW.
VIENTOS Y MARES VARAN CONSIDERABLEMENTE EN CADA CUADRANTE. RADIOS EN NUTICA
MILES SON LOS RADIOS MS GRANDES ESPERADOS EN CUALQUIER LUGAR EN CUADRANTE.

 

REPETIR…CENTRO SITUADO CERCA DE 20.4N 120.9W EN 27/1500Z
EN 27/1200Z CENTRO SE LOCALIZABA CERCA DE 20.1N 120.1W

 

PRONSTICO VLIDO 28/0000Z 20.9N 123.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJO
MAX WIND 30 KT…RFAGAS 40 KT.

 

PRONSTICO VLIDO 28/1200Z 21.4N 125.9W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJO
MAX WIND 25 KT…RFAGAS 35 KT.

 

PRONSTICO VLIDO 29/0000Z 21.5N 128.4W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJO
MAX WIND 25 KT…RFAGAS 35 KT.

 

PRONSTICO VLIDO 29/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJO
MAX WIND 20 KT…RFAGAS 30 KT.

 

PRONSTICO VLIDO 30/1200Z 21.5N 135.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJO
MAX WIND 20 KT…RFAGAS 30 KT.

 

OUTLOOK EXTENDIDA. NOTA…ERRORES DE PISTA HAN PROMEDIADO CERCA DE 150 NM
EL DA 4 Y 175 NM EL DA 5… Y PARA INTENSIDAD CERCA DE 15 KT CADA DA

 

PERSPECTIVA VLIDA 01/1200Z 22.0N 139.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT BAJO
MAX WIND 20 KT…RFAGAS 30 KT.

 

OUTLOOK 02/1200Z VLIDO…DISIPADA

 

SOLICITUD DE 3 POR HORA SE ENVAN INFORMES A 300 KM DE 20.4N 120.9W

 

SIGUIENTE ADVISORY EN 27/2100Z

 

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN

East Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Invest #91E) (JTWC) 290513 2235z

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) E Pacific IR Sat (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TCFA Graphic (Invest 91E) (Click image for source)

 

 

WTPN21 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 114.0W TO 13.9N 107.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 112.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
113.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 112.8W, APPROXIMATELY 370NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 291606Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
FULLY EXPOSED YET TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-
30 KNOTS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. DUE TO THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED NATURE OF THE LLCC AND THE DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTED BY THE
DYNAMIC MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302200Z.//
NNNN