US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm JOSE 20/0900Z nr 38.4N 70.3W, moving NE ~7kt NHC FL – Updated 20 Sep 2017 1200z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm JOSE

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS – NHC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

at201712_5day JOSE WUND 20

 

at201712_sat JOSE WUND 20

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

084730_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind JOSE 20

rb_lalo-animated JOSE GOES SAT.gif

 

084730_most_likely_toa_34 JOSE

084730WPCQPF_sm JOSE RAIN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

…JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS…
…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…38.4N 70.3W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The tropical storm watch has been discontinued along the coast of
Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today with a decrease in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Jose
is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today,
and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas. For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod…1 to 2 inches.
Nantucket…2 to 4 inches.

These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN

 

Caribbean_general_map

Maria Threatens Leeward Islands; Jose’s Surf Will Batter Northeast U.S. Beaches

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 M 20 MARITIME
METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0840

WTNT22 KNHC 200840
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE COAST OF
LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH… INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA’S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…….180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 70.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.1N 69.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 90NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.3W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…150NE 130SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 39.2N 69.5W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 39.5N 68.9W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 70.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Gert 17/1500Z nr 43.2N 50.0W, moving ENE 35 knots(NHC FL) – Updated 17 Aug 2017 1500z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE GERT

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

……..GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY……NHC FL

⚠️ Life-threatening surf and
rip currents will continue to affect the NE coastof US and Atlantic Canada through
tonight.

at201708 Hurr Gert wund

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

143921_5day_cone_with_line_and_windNHC

000
WTNT33 KNHC 171433
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

…GERT RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…43.2N 50.0W
ABOUT 685 MI…1100 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 285 MI…460 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH…65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
near latitude 43.2 North, longitude 50.0 West. Gert is moving toward
the east-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours. Gert is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Gert will continue to affect the coast
of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

=============================================================================

CANADA

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

8:55 AM ADT Thursday 17 August 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

  • Newfoundland

For Hurricane Gert.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:30 p.m. NDT.

Hurricane Gert will race across the Southern Grand Banks today with no direct impacts to Canadian land areas. Hurricane force winds are not expected over the Grand Banks.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:30 a.m. NDT.

Location: Near 42.3 North 51.7 West.

About 497 kilometres south-southeast of Cape Race.

Maximum sustained winds: 148 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: East-northeast at 76 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 972 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A special weather statement highlights the possibility of abnormal variations in the tides.

a. Wind.

Any significant winds from Gert are expected to remain well offshore.

b. Rainfall.

Some moisture from Gert will feed into an approaching non-tropical weather system near eastern Newfoundland. This system will reach Newfoundland on Thursday and amounts of 25 to 50 mm are forecast over portions of eastern and northern Newfoundland.

c. Surge/Waves.

Long period swells from Gert will reach 2 to 4 metres along south-facing coastlines of Newfoundland later today, with the highest waves likely along the southern Avalon peninsula. These swells could also lead to dangerous rip currents. Significant wave heights of 3 to 5 metres are expected over the Grand Banks on this afternoon. The highest waves from Gert will remain south of Canadian waters.

In addition, Hurricane Gert may cause a series of rapid changes in water levels in harbours and inlets from the Avalon Peninsula north to Trinity Bay for a couple of hours. The most likely time ranges from late this afternoon into this evening. High tide will be occurring late this afternoon for most areas, so there is a risk for minor flooding near and after high tide.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

The latest track for Gert has it passing over the extreme southern Grand Banks today and transitioning to a very intense mid-latitude storm as it passes east of our forecast waters. Gale to storm force winds are expected over southernmost portions of the Grand Banks, with hurricane force winds remaining just south of the Grand Banks. Gale and Storm warnings are in effect for the southern Grand Banks.

Forecaster(s): Mercer/Murtha/Couturier

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

Weather Warnings(link)

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Gert Canada

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

201708N TSR!

(Image: TSR)

201708N_0 TSR2 17

(Image: TSR)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 nhc

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 150831

WTNT23 KNHC 171433
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT……. 90NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 420SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 50.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.2N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 46.0N 43.6W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 49.3N 37.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 51.3N 35.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 52.4N 34.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…180NE 180SE 60SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.2N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

 

 

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150926
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
526 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

Hurricane Gert is centered near 31.8N 72.5W at 15/0900 UTC or
about 375 nm W of Bermuda moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 30N-32N between 70W-73W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 28N-33N between 70W-74W. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

A tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde islands associated with a
1012 mb low pressure located near 14N28W. The wave axis extends
from 18N27W to the low to 09N28W and has been moving W at 10 kt.
The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, however
intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave environment
limit deep convection. Shallow moisture confined to the vicinity
of the monsoon trough and upper level diffluent wind support
scattered moderate convection SW of the low center from 10N-14N
between 28W-33W. Slow development of this system is anticipated
during the next day or two, but conditions are forecast to become
a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by later in
the week while the system moves westward over the tropical
Atlantic.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
20N51W to 09N53W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave is entering a
region of moderate to strong vertical wind shear and is being
severely affected by extensive Saharan dry air and dust, which is
hindering convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
20N64W to 10N66W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave is in a region of
strong vertical wind shear and dry air subsidence, which is
hindering deep convection at the time. Shallow moisture observed
in CIRA LPW imagery and upper level diffluent flow ahead of the
wave axis in the N-central Caribbean support isolated showers over
northern Puerto Rico and adjacent waters as well as the Mona
Passage and E Dominican Republic.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W
to 14N28W to 11N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 11N43W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W.
Numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms are coming off the W
African coast associated with the next tropical wave. The
convection extends from 05N to 11N E of 18W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 15N between 34W and 46W associated with
a 1012 mb low located near 11N39W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, which along with
dry air subsidence support mainly fair weather conditions.
A broad upper level low is centered just N of the Yucatan
Peninsula, which supports isolated showers there and in the
Yucatan Channel. Diffluent flow in the NW periphery of the low
support similar shower activity off the SE coast of Louisiana and
Mississippi. Winds are gentle to moderate and from the S-SE in the
western half of the basin and light variable elsewhere. The ridge
will remain in place across the Gulf waters the next couple of
days. A surface trough will develop each evening across the
Yucatan Peninsula shifting W to the Bay of Campeche during the
overnight hours. Locally higher winds can be expected west of the
trough axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA…

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean. Please
see section above. The tropical wave will continue to propagate
westward over Puerto Rico this morning, then will move over
central Caribbean waters tonight. Isolated showers are occurring
ahead of the wave axis over northern Puerto Rico and adjacent
waters, the Mona Passage and E Dominican Republic. This convection
is mainly due to shallow moisture and a diffluent wind environment
aloft associated with an upper level low over central Atlc waters.
A broad upper level low centered just N of the Yucatan Peninsula
support isolated showers in the Yucatan Channel extending to NW
Caribbean waters N of 17N W of 80W. Scattered heavy showers and
tstms are over Belize and northern Guatemala associated with the
passage of a tropical wave with axis currently moving across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, Mexico. Otherwise, fresh to near gale force
winds are in the south-central basin forecast to continue through
Thursday.

…HISPANIOLA…

An upper level low over the central Atlc will drift WSW to the north
and across the Island over the next couple of days. This low aloft
along with the passage of a tropical wave will support scattered
to isolated showers over the Island and adjacent waters through
Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

Scattered showers and tstms are N of 28N between 70W and 74W associated
with the rainbands of Hurricane Gert centered north of the area.
See Special features for further details. Otherwise, the
remainder basin generally N of 20N is under the influence of the
Azores high, which supports fair weather. For information about
tropical waves, see section above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Bermuda/ Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Joaquin CAT2 04/1500Z 31.0N 66.8W, moving NNE 15 knots (NHC FL) – Updated 04 OCT 2015 1705z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Joaquin

(CATEGORY 2Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Hurricane Warning for BERMUDA – storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Latest Watches, Warnings & Advisories

Hurricane Warning

Updated: 11:30 am Sunday, October 04, 2015

Additional Information:

Hurricane force winds are expected to occur for a period during Sunday evening, especially in the west and over elevated, exposed areas. Please refer to latest Tropical Update Information.
Hurricane Warning
A warning that one or both of the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Bermuda or the local marine area out to 25 nautical miles in 36 hours or less: (a) average winds 64 knots (118 km/h) (74 mph) or higher; (b) dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force.

Please refer to the latest forecast for detailed information on conditions likely to affect Bermuda and the surrounding marine area. This is available by logging onto our website at www.weather.bm.

The above warning(s) will be updated as conditions warrant.

– Meteorologist: Fred Byrley

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

145216W5_NL_sm 4

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

…CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY…
…DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.0N 66.8W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of eye of Hurricane Joaquin
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 31.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. Joaquin is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with a slight decrease in forward is expected to continue
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will
pass just west of Bermuda this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda
tonight.

Recent data from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 957 mb (28.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 4 Oct, 2015 15:00 GMT

Hurricane JOAQUIN (AL11) currently located near 31.0 N 66.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201511N 4

Other Reports

#SCwx #NCwx #SC #NC #SAR #Flood #SevereWx #News/ Historic, life-taking #flooding in #SouthCarolina – many rescues rptd

Even though #Hurricane #Joaquin is tracking away from the United States, torrential rainfall continues to pound the #EastCoast. Heavy rain has brought historic, life-threatening flooding in many locations in South Carolina, including in #Charleston and #Columbia, where numerous rescues have been reported. Into Monday, a feed of rich tropical moisture from the #Atlantic will continue to unleash heavy rainfall on the Southeast, especially in parts of South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina. Gov. Nikki Haley urged the residents of South Carolina to stay safe, saying that the amount of rain in the low country was at its highest level in a 1,000 years and noted that the #CongareeRiver was at its highest level since 1936. In eastern South Carolina and southeastern #NorthCarolina, rainfall totals are predicted to range from 12 to 24 inches, nearly half of the normal rainfall for an entire year. President #Obama has already declared a state of emergency in South Carolina and ordered federal aid to help state and local efforts. Rain and flood warnings remained in effect for many parts of the East Coast on Sunday. While much of the torrential rainfall was centered in the #Carolinas, coastal communities as far as #NewJersey were feeling the effects of unrelenting rainfall. In New Jersey, storms dislodged an entire house from its pilings in a low-lying area of #MiddleTownship, according to NBC New York. Flood watches and warnings are in effect in parts of New Jersey, as well as #Delaware, #Maryland and #Virginia. At least 5 people have died on the East Coast since the severe weather began. Of the three weather-related deaths in South Carolina, two were motorists who lost control of their cars and the third was a pedestrian hit by a car. Take a look at photos of the unfolding devastation from the torrential rains and powerful wind gusts.

Monday, 05 October, 2015 at 12:23 (12:23 PM) UTC RSOE

See also https://www.windyty.com/?23.624,-73.795,6

Dr. Jeff Masters’ Blog

Thousand-Year Rains Possible in Carolinas; Joaquin Headed North

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 4:39 PM GMT on October 02, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin continued to lash the Bahamas on Friday morning as it turned north on a course expected to keep it well away from the U.S. East Coast. However, several days of coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur from New Jersey to North Carolina, and extremely heavy rain could produce dangerous impacts in South Carolina. It was a long night of screaming winds, pounding waves, and lashing rains for residents of the Central Bahama Islands, where dangerous Hurricane Joaquin maintained Category 4 intensity with 130 mph winds. The eyewall of Joaquin affected Crooked Island/Acklins Island (population 600), and Long Island (population 3,000) for many hours, and no doubt damage is heavy to extreme on those islands. Joaquin has turned to the north, as seen on microwave satellite animations, and as the storm plows northwards at 3 – 6 mph on Friday, San Salvador Island (population 900) will likely feel eyewall winds. The Hurricane Hunters made multiple passes through the hurricane Friday morning, finding that the central pressure had gradually risen from 935 mb to 939 mb. The size of the eye has been fluctuating considerably, and the Hurricane Hunters noted a secondary maxima of winds away from the eyewall, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle may be ready to begin. These cycles that lead to a collapse of the inner eyewall, followed by a temporary weakening as a new outer eyewall is established. Wind shear continued to be in the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, on Friday morning, and visible and infrared satellite loops showed that Joaquin continued to maintain a formidable appearance. Upper level winds analyses from the University of Wisconsin show that the hurricane has now has two impressive upper-level outflow channels, one to the northwest, and one to the southeast. Ocean temperatures in the region remain a record-warm 30°C (86°F). These conditions should allow Joaquin to maintain at least Category 3 strength until Saturday.


Figure 1. Lightning flashes in one of Hurricane Joaquin’s spiral bands in this nighttime image taken in the early morning hours of October 2, 2015 from the International Space Station. The lights of Miami are visible in the upper left. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly, ISS.


Figure 2.  GOES-13 visible image of Hurricane Joaquin taken at 8:45 am EDT October 2, 2015. At the time, Joaquin was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Forecast for Joaquin
Joaquin is finally embarking on its long-awaited turn toward the north, and the Bahamas are likely the only land areas that will feel a direct impact from the storm. Microwave satellite animations on Friday morning showed the convective core of Joaquin shifting toward the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is now streaming toward the northwest, some of it becoming entrained in the frontal system off the East Coast.

The 00Z Friday (8 pm EDT Thursday) computer model runs continued to lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF solutions inched slightly westward from their previous tracks, bringing Joaquin a bit closer to Cape Cod through a subtle left swing in its path. The 06Z GFS run shifted back toward the east, well away from New England, and the 12Z GFS run also remained far offshore. A slight northward bend in the otherwise northeastward track remains in the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET solutions, as noted in the 11:00 am EDT forecast discussion from NHC. The ECMWF’s 00Z Friday ensemble runs were quite closely clustered around the offshore track, with only a couple of its 50 members suggesting the potential for a New England landfall. In contrast, more than a third of the 00Z and 06Z GEFS ensemble members continue to indicate the possibility of a SC/NC landfall, although the operational GFS model has not shown such a solution for some time. Among other major models, the Canadian GEM and the U.S. NAM (including the 12Z Friday NAM ran) also point toward an East Coast landfall, but take heed: these are historically among the least-reliable track models, so we would be wise to heavily discount them in favor of the GFS and ECMWF.


Figure 3. GFS ensemble members from the GEFS run on 06Z Friday, October 2, lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin as depicted in the official NHC forecast, although a few members still bring Joaquin along a looping onshore path near the U.S. East Coast. On the right-hand side are the ensembles’ projected tracks for Invest 90L. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

The official NHC forecast track as of 11:00 am EDT Friday keeps Joaquin hundreds of miles away from the U.S. East Coast, and NHC has enough confidence in this track that the “key points” section of its latest forecast discussion does not mention any potential for a U.S. landfall. The persistence of a few model outliers should not be a particular cause for concern at this point, but it does remind us that the upper-level features that will steer Joaquin are complex and dynamic. The two main influences on Joaquin’s track remain the upper low now cutting off over the Southeast U.S. and Invest 90L, located more than 1000 miles east of Joaquin. 90L originated from an upper-level low that has incorporated remnants of former Tropical Storm Ida. The NHC is giving 90L an 80% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours as it drifts northward. The presence of 90L is creating a pathway for Joaquin to head northeast.

It appears that the strong jet stream diving around the Southeast low will kick eastward around the base of the low over the next couple of days, pushing the eastern part of the low offshore. Together with the influence of slowly developing 90L, this should keep Joaquin moving on a north to northeast track Friday and Saturday. As Figure 3 suggests, a more northeastward motion would lend confidence in the current expectation of an offshore track, while any significant component of motion toward the west today and Saturday would keep open the door for the far-less-likely possibility of a track hooking around the Southeast upper low. We’ll be watching the 12Z Friday model guidance closely and will have more on the forecast for Joaquin in our afternoon update.


Figure 4. Projected rainfall (in inches) for the 72-hour period from 12Z (8 am EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015, to Monday, October 5. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Epic rainfall likely for South Carolina
The latest 3-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for 10 – 15″ inches of rain for the majority of South Carolina, including the cities of Charleston and Columbia.

This forecast assumes that Hurricane Joaquin will not come anywhere close to the state. The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a “Predecessor Rain Event” (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding. The PRE can develop well to the left or right of the eventual track of the tropical cyclone. Slow-moving Hurricane Joaquin is perfectly positioned to transport a strong low-level flow of super-moist tropical air that has water vapor evaporated from record-warm ocean waters north of the Bahamas westwards into the Southeast U.S. Once this moisture hits land, it will encounter a cut-off upper low pressure system aloft, with a surface front beneath it, which will lift the moist air, cooling it, and forcing epic amounts of rainfall to fall. The air will also be moving up in elevation from the coast to the Piedmont and Appalachians, which lifts the air and facilitates even more precipitation. Satellite imagery is already hinting at development of this connection of moisture between Joaquin and the Southeast low and frontal system.


Figure 5. The maximum rainfall predicted to fall in any 24-hour period during the 5-day period from 5 am EDT October 2 to 5 am EDT October 7, according to a high-resolution Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model run done by MetStat, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) In some areas of North Carolina and South Carolina, 24-hour rainfall amounts one would expect to fall only once in a thousand years are predicted. MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/ or on their Facebook page.

Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur.  According to NOAA’s Precipitation Frequency Data Server, these could be 1-in-1000 year rains for some locations. (Hydrologists would refer to a 1-in-1000-year rain as having a typical “recurrence interval” of 1000 years. The idea is that such events are not always separated by 1000 years; the same amount of rain could conceivably occur the very next year, or might not occur until thousands of years later.) The three-day 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 17.1″, 17.8″, and 14.2″, respectively. The 24-hour 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 14.8″, 15.9″, and 12.5″, respectively.

The storm to beat in South Carolina is Tropical Storm Jerry of 1995, which dumped up to 18.51″ of rain over a small region of Southwest SC. The storm to beat in nearby eastern North Carolina is Hurricane Floyd, which dumped prodigious amounts of rain in mid-September 1999, less than a month after Hurricane Dennis had drenched the region. Floyd produced a broad stripe of 15″ – 20″ rains, with a maximum total of 24.06″ at a site five miles north of Southport, NC (about 30 miles east of the NC/SC border). To get such widespread multi-day totals outside of a tropical cyclone would be a monumental feat.  Averaged across the state as a whole, the wettest three calendar months in South Carolina weather history are July 1916 (14.41″), September 1924 (13.16″), and September 1928 (12.70″). All of these were related to tropical cyclones passing through or near the state. If the NWS precipitation forecasts are in the right ballpark, then the first few days of October 2015 might approach or even exceed these all-time monthly records for the entire state–without any help from a landfalling hurricane or tropical storm!

Texas and Oklahoma have already notched their wettest months on record (by far) this past May, and Illinois had its second-wettest month on record in June. Our warming climate is making intense short-term rains (such as the highest 1-day totals) even heavier in many parts of the United States and the world, although less research has been done on trends in monthly rainfall.

For more on the science of extremely heavy rainfall, see Bob Henson’s May 2015 post, The Rains of May and the Science of Recurrence Intervals.


Figure 6. Projected maximum flood category for the 24-hour period from noon EDT Friday, October 2, through Saturday, October 3, 2015. The worst impacts today through Saturday are expected through the southern part of the Chesapeake Bay. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 7. Strong on-shore winds along the mid-Atlantic coast due to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Joaquin and a strong high pressure system over the Northeast U.S. were creating storm surge heights of 2 – 3′ in many locations, and over 3′ on Virginia’s Delmarva Peninsula. Image credit: Hal Needham.

Long-duration coastal flooding under way
The combination of Hurricane Joaquin, the Southeast U.S. low, and a strong ridge well to the north is leading to an unusually prolonged period of steady onshore flow and high surf along the U.S. East Coast from New Jersey southward to North Carolina. The highest-impact coastal flooding and beach erosion can be expected along the Virginia and Delaware coast, including Ocean City, MD, and the Hampton Roads area of VA, which includes Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The Wakefield, VA, NWS office is calling for several rounds of moderate to severe coastal flooding through the weekend. See the latest blog post from storm-surge expert Hal Needham for more details on this event.

We’ll have an update later this afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

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Bermuda Marine Forecast

This forecast covers an area out to 25 nautical miles from the coastline
Issued at 11:30 am – Sunday, October 04, 2015
The next scheduled update will be issued at 4:30 pm

Marine Synopsis –

**A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT** As Hurricane Joaquin’s makes its approach, winds increase tropical storm force to storm force this afternoon with a period of hurricane force winds, especially in the west, this evening into the night. Joaquin’s closest point of approach remains near 60 miles, with slow improvement during Monday.

Today –

Winds southeasterly 30 to 40 knots gusts to 50 knots, increasing 40 to 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots later in the afternoon…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Building southerly swells… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 18 ft, building…  Sunrise: 7:14 am.

Tonight –

Winds southerly 40 to 50 knots gusts to 60 knots, increasing 55 to 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots, mainly in the west and in elevated areas, decreasing slowly and veering southwesterly overnight…  Rain and showers with embedded thunderstorms and mainly poor visibility. Southerly swells building high… Seas inside the reef 3 to 7 ft… Outside the reef 20 to 35 ft…  Sunset: 7:00 pm.

Monday –

Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 knots gusts to 45 knots, decreasing 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots by evening, further decreasing 18 to 24 knots with stronger gusts overnight…  Isolated to scattered showers, becoming isolated during the day, with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 2 to 5 ft… Outside the reef 12 to 20 ft, decreasing during the afternoon inside the reef 2 to 4 ft… Outside the reef 9 to 15 ft…  Sunrise: 7:15 am; Sunset: 6:59 pm.

Tuesday –

Winds southwesterly 16 to 22 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the morning…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 7 to 11 ft…  Sunrise: 7:16 am; Sunset: 6:57 pm.

Wednesday –

Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, decreasing 12 to 18 knots during the afternoon…  Isolated to scattered showers with fair to poor visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 3 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft, decreasing…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:56 pm.

Thursday –

Winds westerly 12 to 18 knots…  Isolated showers with generally fair visibility… Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 ft… Outside the reef 5 to 8 ft…  Sunrise: 7:17 am; Sunset: 6:55 pm.


Tides at St George’s (for Great Sound tides, add 10 minutes):
High: 2:30 pm this afternoon: 1.1m/3.6ft, 2:57 am tonight: 1m/3.3ft
Low: 9:14 pm this evening: 0.4m/1.3ft, 9:20 am Monday: 0.4m/1.3ft
Sea Surface Temperature: 26.9°C/80.4°F
Meteorologist: Fred Byrley, Observer: Chris Black

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 021452

WTNT21 KNHC 041450
TCMAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT……. 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…….160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 300SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.6N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.4N 58.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 180SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 42.3N 45.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 200SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 46.4N 29.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 51.4N 19.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 66.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

There may be more warnings here: METAREA IV

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Bermuda/Canada/Atlantic: Hurricane GONZALO CAT1 181500Z 36.8N 61.7W, moving NNE at 22 knots (NHC) – Updated 181014 1643Z

Hurricane GONZALO

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…GONZALO FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR…
ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND…NHC

AFTER MAKING A DIRECT HIT ON BERMUDA LAST EVENING, HURRICANE
GONZALO IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE, NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING..
...CHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 181455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

…GONZALO FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…36.8N 61.7W
ABOUT 355 MI…575 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 815 MI…1310 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH…41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…966 MB…28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR…
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH…41 KM/H. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
DAY AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 90 MPH…150
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES…335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB…28.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS…PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST…BERMUDA…AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

==================================================

BWS – Tropical Update Bulletin
HURRICANE GONZALO
IS A POTENTIAL THREAT TO BERMUDA
Advisory #25, 12 pm Sat, Oct 18, 2014
KEY: Blue = 34-50 kts, Yellow = 50-64 kts, and Red = 64 kts and greater
Diagonal shading indicates fringe winds (34kts or greater surrounding the storm’s core)
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) has passed.
Current Position: 36.8N 61.7W approx. 310 nm NNE of Bermuda
Recent Movement: NNE or 30 degrees at 22 kt
Central Pressure: 966 mb / 28.52 in
Max Winds: 80kt gusts 100kt
In line with NHC updates, Tropical Update Bulletins(TUB) are normally issued every 6 hours. Intermediate advisories may be issued every 3 hours when a tropical watch or warning is in effect (every 2 hours when radar has identified a storm centre). Additionally, TUBs may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.
Hurricane Track Information
WOCN31 CWHX 181145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:56 AM ADT SATURDAY
18 OCTOBER 2014.
———————————————————————
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR HURRICANE GONZALO.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

AFTER MAKING A DIRECT HIT ON BERMUDA LAST EVENING, HURRICANE
GONZALO IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE, NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 35.8 NORTH 62.5 WEST.

ABOUT 430 KILOMETRES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 157 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 37 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE TRACK COULD RANGE FROM ST.
MARY’S BAY TO ABOUT 150 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE.
THIS REPRESENTS A RANGE OF ABOUT 200 KILOMETRES WITH ABOUT A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STORM CENTRE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN
AVALON PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF AVALON PENINSULA NORTH, BEGINNING TONIGHT.THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE HAS ISSUED RAINFALL WARNINGS
FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA.

A. WIND.

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AVALON
PENINSULA NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO 50
GUSTING TO 80 KM/H.

B. RAINFALL.

MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AS A RESULT
OF GONZALO’S PASSAGE. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL FROM GONZALO IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO WILL BEGIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND END BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. IN THE AREAS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN, RAINFALL RATES OF 25 MILLIMETRES PER HOUR FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LARGEST WAVES WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE IN
THE 5 TO 8 METRE RANGE AND COULD POSSIBLY EXCEED 10 METRES.
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND, WAVES OF 4 TO 6
METRES ARE LIKELY.

OF CONCERN IS THAT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA IS
NEAR DAWN SUNDAY WHICH COULD BE THE APPROXIMATE TIME OF GONZALO’S
PASSAGE. HIGH COASTAL WATER LEVELS AND HIGH WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG
SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL FLOODING MAINLY DUE TO WAVE ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME.

ALSO, THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE OCEAN
SWELLS OF 2 TO 3 METRES BEGINNING TONIGHT AND BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
METRES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED REGARDING THE WAVES AND
HIGH WATER LEVELS.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THIS STORM WILL HAVE HEAVY IMPACTS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MARINE
AREAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS
OF 12 METRES ARE LIKELY OVER SOME OFFSHORE MARINE AREAS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM’S TRACK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT WAVES COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 18 METRES
FROM THE LAURENTIAN FAN INTO THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS, WITH LESSER
WAVE HEIGHTS FURTHER NORTH.

MARINE WARNINGS SUMMARY:

NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS: HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS.
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST, EAST COAST – CAPE
ST. FRANCIS AND SOUTH, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FUNK ISLAND BANK – SOUTHERN HALF.

MARITIMES WATERS: A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAURENTIAN FAN – SOUTHEASTERN HALF. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
LAURENTIAN FAN – NORTHWESTERN HALF AND BANQUEREAU – SOUTHEASTERN
HALF. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE –
SOUTHEASTERN HALF AND BANQUEREAU NORTHWESTERN HALF.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/HATT/MERCER/FOGARTY
_______________________________________________
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Oct, 2014 9:00 GMT

Hurricane GONZALO (AL08) currently located near 34.7 N 63.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wales
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
    Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
    Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Birmingham (52.5 N, 1.9 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Cardiff (51.5 N, 3.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Lands End (50.1 N, 5.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
    Hull (53.8 N, 0.1 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Weymouth (50.6 N, 2.4 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Torquay (50.3 N, 3.7 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Southampton (50.9 N, 1.4 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Cambridge (52.2 N, 0.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 181454

WTNT23 KNHC 181454
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR…
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 61.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT……. 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT……. 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT…….150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 220SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 61.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.8N 58.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT… 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT…150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 51.3N 38.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT… 90NE 240SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 53.5N 23.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 240SE 320SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 181603

FZNT01 KWBC 181603
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CCODE/2:31:04:11:00/AOW+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

PAN PAN

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 18
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 19
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 20

.WARNINGS.

..HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE GONZALO NEAR 36.8N 61.7W 966 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18
MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 22 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE…220 NM SW QUADRANT
AND 320 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 47 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL GONZALO NEAR 47.0N
50.5W 980 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE…180 NM SE AND 120 NM SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
180 NM NW…240 NM NE…420 NM SE AND 360 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS
30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT. ALSO WITHIN 300 NM NE…540 NM SE
AND 660 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 25 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL GONZALO E OF AREA NEAR 53.5N
23.5W 993 MB. FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 56N56W 992 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 660 NM NE…420 NM NE
AND 780 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N45W 991 MB. WITHIN 540 NM NW AND 240 NM
NE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N37W 993 MB. WITHIN 720 NM NW AND 420 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 45N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND 50N57W 991 MB. WITHIN 660 NM S
SEMICIRCLE AND 480 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO
16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 58N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT WHERE NOTED WITH HURRICANE GONZALO IN WARNINGS SECTION
ABOVE FROM 31N TO 43N BETWEEN 49W AND 70W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH POST-TROPICAL
GONZALO IN WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

.FROM 31N TO 66N E OF 46W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 52N E OF 41W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 55N E OF 40W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 63N TO 66N E OF 38W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 57N TO 66N E OF 42W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 14 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 43N TO 47N
BETWEEN 53W AND 59W AND FROM 48N TO 56N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 53N BETWEEN 43W AND 57W
AND FROM 49N TO 54N E OF 42W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 55N BETWEEN 42W AND 58W.

.HIGH 41N45W 1027 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N38W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.FORECASTER HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 20.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 29.5N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
12 TO 14 FT. N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 31N74W TO 20N60W TO 20N35W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF LINE 31N59W TO 13N35W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE AND N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE OF LINE 31N54W TO 20N35W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN N SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
================================================

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http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic/US/Canada: Tropical Cyclone (TD) Gabrielle 130900Z near 36.5N 67.5W, moving NNE at 15 knots – 130913 0930z

Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Depression) Gabrielle

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

Canada

Hurricane Track Information

WOCN31 CWHX 130545
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
At 2:34 AM ADT Friday 13 September 2013
———————————————————————
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Newfoundland
      Nova Scotia
      Prince Edward Island.

      For tropical storm Gabrielle.

      The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.

      Gabrielle beginning to accelerate northeastward – currently
      Merging with frontal system – heavy rain for many parts of
      Atlantic Canada.

———————————————————————
Tropical cyclone information statement ended for:
      Quebec maritime.

———————————————————————
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 AM ADT.

Location: near 35.7 north 67.5 west, or about 1000 kilometres
south-southwest of Halifax.

Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/h.

Present movement: north-northeast at 20 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 1006 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gabrielle is currently located south of the Maritimes and is moving
northward. It will continue to accelerate toward the northeast
Today as it merges with a cold front approaching from New England.
The front – currently completely separate from Gabrielle – will give
heavy rainfall to portions of New Brunswick today.

As Gabrielle moves northward, its moisture will be drawn toward the
front. Rainfall from this feature is expected to spread across Nova
Scotia and PEI today.

Gabrielle maintains marginal tropical storm status, and little change
in intensity is expected. The storm centre itself is not likely to
have much of a direct impact on the region since most of its energy
will transfer to the cold front. What is left of Gabrielle’s wind
will likely clip Eastern Nova Scotia tonight. The original storm
centre may completely be merged with the front by the time it reaches
Western Newfoundland by early Saturday.

A. Wind.

An area of gusty winds associated with the remnants of Gabrielle will
affect Eastern Mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton tonight, with
wind gusts up to 70 km/h expected. Les Suetes winds up to 90 km/h
Are forecast in the Lee of the Cape Breton Highlands tonight. These
gustier winds will also move into Newfoundland by Saturday morning.

B. Rainfall.

Rain (heavy at times) should develop over Southwestern Nova Scotia
this morning and spread to the remainder of the province and Prince
Edward Island during the day. Computer models are indicating that
The heaviest rainfall related to Gabrielle’s remnant low will fall
along a swath just west of and roughly parallel to its track across
Eastern Nova Scotia. Rainfall warnings are in effect for parts of
Central and Northeastern Nova Scotia, as well as Queens and Kings
County PEI. Local rainfall amounts of up to 70 millimetres are
possible in these areas. There is a slight risk of 100 millimetres
within the swath which could give localized flooding. Note that a
change in track or timing of the interaction of the forementioned
front with Gabrielle could shift these maximum rainfall areas to
other regions.

The west coast of Newfoundland and Labrador will receive heavy rain
from the unrelated front today. Rain related to the remnants of
Gabrielle will begin to affect southern parts of western
Newfoundland tonight and amounts could exceed 30-40 millimetres
through Saturday.

C. Surge/waves.

Moderate wave/surf conditions are likely along the Atlantic coast of
Guysborough County, Cape Breton, and Southern Newfoundland associated
with the remnants of Gabrielle.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale warnings are in effect for maritime waters near and east of
Gabrielle’s track. Gale force winds will likely develop ahead of
Gabrielle over southern maritime waters this morning, then spread
northward during the day and to Southern Newfoundland waters
Tonight. The strongest winds will likely occur just east of the
remaining circulation when it crosses Maritimes and Newfoundland
waters.

Wave models show the potential for wave heights of 4 to 6 metres as
the leftovers of Gabrielle move through.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

– forecast position, central pressure table.

– strength and predicted wind radii table.

– hurricane track information map.

– technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/HARTT/COUTURIER

End

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

United States

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

(Image: NHC) Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (Click image for source)

WTNT32 KNHC 130850
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

…GABRIELLE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…36.5N 67.5W
ABOUT 360 MI…580 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 595 MI…960 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 67.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17
MPH…28 KM/H…AND THIS HEADING WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

MARITIME

 

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0850

WTNT22 KNHC 130850
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013
0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N  67.5W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N  67.5W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N  67.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 40.5N  65.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT…GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N  67.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

 

 

 

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0345

FZNT01 KWBC 130345 CCA
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0430 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013

CCODE/2:31:04:11:00/AOW+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

PAN PAN

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SEP 13
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 14
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SEP 15

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE NEAR 35.1N 67.7W 1008 MB AT 0300 UTC
SEP 13 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35
KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE AND
120 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL GABRIELLE NEAR 43.8N 64.3W 1009
MB. FROM 36N TO 48N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 12 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL GABRIELLE DISSIPATED.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 65N35W 988 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 420 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 56N E OF 47W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 66N35W 993 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW
QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 58N
TO 65N E OF 44W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH STORM WARNING BELOW.

…STORM WARNING…
.COMPLEX INLAND LOW WITH MEAN CENTER 46N70W 1000 MB MOVING NE 30
KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N50W 1002 MB. FROM 48N TO 58N BETWEEN
40W AND 60W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 58N33W 998 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SW
QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL E OF AREA. FROM 57N TO 59N E OF 45W
WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. ALSO FROM 56N TO 63N E OF
47W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 54N E OF
50W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 53N47W 1005 MB MOVING NE 35 KT. FROM 45N TO 56N E OF 52W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.LOW 67N58W 1003 MB MOVING N 10 KT. N OF 66N W OF GREENLAND
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA WITH CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N62W 1008 MB. FROM 47N TO 55N E OF 58W
AND BETWEEN 180 NM AND 660 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 45N TO 55N W
OF 38W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 42N TO 56N W OF 40W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 420 NM N OF A LINE FROM 47N35W
TO 42N62W.

.HIGH 59N60W 1014 MB DRIFTING E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N54W 1024 MB.

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT SEP 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN SEP 15.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE HUMBERTO E OF AREA NEAR 23.4N 29.7W 984 MB AT 0300
UTC SEP 13 MOVING NNW OR 345 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180
NM E SEMICIRCLE…70 NM SW QUADRANT AND 140 NM NW QUADRANT.
SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE…180 NM SE QUADRANT
AND 150 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
FROM 20N TO 28N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN
NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO E OF AREA NEAR 25.3N
32.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE…60 NM SW QUADRANT AND
120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM N AND
180 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. OVER FORECAST WATERS N
OF 24N E OF 38W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 11 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N
OF 20N E OF 42W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY
IN E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO NEAR 27.4N 37.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT…70 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
240 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS N OF 25N E OF 41W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 11 TO
12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 23N E OF 45W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN E SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO NEAR 29.5N 41.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO NEAR 31.5N 44.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO NEAR 34.5N 45.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN NEAR 19.7N 94.0W 1003 MB AT 0300 UTC
SEP 13 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TEN NEAR 19.4N 94.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS WITH SEAS 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TEN NEAR 19.8N 94.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN THE AREA OF TROPICAL
STORM WINDS WITH SEAS TO 16 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TEN NEAR 21.5N 96.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TEN NEAR 23.0N 98.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INLAND NEAR 24.0N
100.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Post Tropical Cyclone #RAFAEL expected to remain a strong extratropical low for the next couple of days – 181012 1745Z

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

(Image: US Fleet Weather Center, Norfolk)
17L.RAFAEL, ATCF TRACK
(Click image for source)

(Image: weatheroffice.gc.ca)
Hurricane Track Information
(Click image for source)

(Image: weatheroffice.gc.ca)
North Atlantic IR (infra-red: 10.7 µm) Satellite
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Rafael Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Computer Model Verification
(Click image for source)

 

WTNT32 KNHC 172049
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
500 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

…RAFAEL NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…40.2N 56.5W
ABOUT 475 MI…760 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 35 MPH…56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…972 MB…28.70 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST.
THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH…56 KM/H.  A
TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…
HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES…130 KM…
FROM THE CENTER…AND GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES…500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB…28.70 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
COAST OF EASTERN CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON RAFAEL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

French:

WTNT32 KNHC 172049
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
CYCLONES POST-TROPICAUX RAFAEL NOMBRE CONSULTATIF 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST MERCREDI 17 OCTOBRE 2012

…RAFAEL MAINTENANT UN CYCLONE EXTRATROPICAL…
…IL S’AGIT DE LA DERNIÈRE CONSULTATION…

RÉSUMÉ DE 500 PM AST…2100 UTC… INFORMATIONS
———————————————-
EMPLACEMENT…40.2N 56.5W
ENVIRON 475 MI…760 KM AU SUD-EST DE HALIFAX (NOUVELLE-ÉCOSSE)
VENTS MAXIMUMS SOUTENUS…75 MI/H…120 KM/H
MOUVEMENT PRÉSENT…ELECTRON OU 35 DEGRÉS À 35 MI/H…56 KM/H
PRESSION MINIMALE AU CENTRE…972 MO…28,70 CM

VEILLES ET AVERTISSEMENTS
——————–
IL N’Y A AUCUN LITTORAL MONTRES OU DES AVERTISSEMENTS EN VIGUEUR.

DISCUSSION ET PERSPECTIVES DE 48 HEURES
——————————
À 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…LE CENTRE DE POST-TROPICALE CYCLONE
RAFAEL ÉTAIT SITUÉ PRÈS DE NORTH LATITUDE 40,2…56,5 DE LONGITUDE OUEST.
LA DÉPRESSION SE DÉPLACE VERS LE NORD-EST PRÈS DE 35 MI/H…56 KM/H. A
SE TOURNENT VERS L’ENE AVEC UNE CERTAINE AUGMENTATION DANS LA VITESSE D’AVANCEMENT
EST PRÉVU LE JEUDI.

VENTS MAXIMUMS SOUTENUS SONT PRÈS DE 75 MI/H…120 KM/H….AVEC SUPÉRIEUR
RAFALES. AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF EST PRÉVU AU COURS DES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES…
CEPENDANT LE CYCLONE DEVRAIT RESTER UNE FORTE TEMPÊTE EXTRATROPICALE
BAS AU-DESSUS DE L’ATLANTIQUE NORD AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS.

VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN S’ÉTENDENT VERS L’EXTÉRIEUR VERS LE HAUT À 80 KM…130 KM…
DEPUIS LE CENTRE DE…ET VENTS VIOLENTS S’ÉTENDENT VERS L’EXTÉRIEUR JUSQU’À 310
KM…500 KM.

LA PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMÉE MINIMUM EST 972 MO…28,70 CM.

RISQUES TOUCHANT DES TERRES
———————-
SURF…LA HOULE GÉNÉRÉE PAR LE CYCLONE DEVRAIENT AFFECTER LA
CÔTE DE L’EST DU CANADA AU COURS DE LA JOURNÉE SUIVANTE OU. CES HOULES SONT
PROBABLEMENT À CAUSE MORTELLE SURF ET RESSACS. S’IL VOUS PLAÎT
CONSULTEZ LES PRODUITS DE VOTRE BUREAU MÉTÉOROLOGIQUE LOCAL.

AVIS AUX PROCHAINES
————-
IL S’AGIT DU DERNIER AVIS PUBLIC ÉMIS PAR LE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTRE ON RAFAEL. DES INFORMATIONS SUPPLÉMENTAIRES SUR CE SYSTÈME PEUVENT ÊTRE
TROUVÉ EN HAUTE MER LES PRÉVISIONS ÉMISES PAR LE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…SOUS L’EN-TÊTE AWIPS NFDHSFAT1 ET EN-TÊTE OMM FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
PRÉVISIONNISTE BROWN

Press:

15 Oct 2012:

Tropical Storm Rafael churns toward Bermuda

(Image: CNN)
Two taxis were washed down to the shoreline when they tried to cross a flooded area on Bay Road in Basseterre, St. Kitts
(Click image for full story at CNN)

(CNN) — “Officials in Bermuda warned residents to prepare Monday as Tropical Storm Rafael neared hurricane strength in the central Atlantic.

The island’s top emergency official said residents and tourists should see strong winds and rough seas as the storm approaches on Tuesday. Still, he expressed confidence that the impact would be minimal.

“We are expecting the worst of the storm to pass to our east, and it will therefore be business as usual tomorrow,” Wayne Perinchief, chairman of Bermuda’s Emergency Measures Organization, said Monday.”

LESLIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND – Updated 11 Sept 2012 1526Z

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Leslie 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

(Image: weatheroffice.gc.ca)
Leslie Track Information
(Click image for animation/source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com)
Post-Tropical Cyclone LESLIE
Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

 

 

WTNT32 KNHC 111439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

…LESLIE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM NEWFOUNDLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…49.4N 53.6W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM NNW OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 45 MPH…72 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH…72 KH/HR…AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES…555 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB…28.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY.  THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL…RAINS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

En français :

WTNT32 KNHC 111439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN DE
CYCLONE POST-TROPICALE LESLIE CONSULTATIF NUMÉRO 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 SUIS AST TUE SEP 11 2012

…LESLIE DEVIENT UN CYCLONE POST-TROPICALE EN TANT QU’IL COMMENCE À S’EN ÉLOIGNER
DE TERRE-NEUVE…

RÉSUMÉ DE 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC… INFORMATION
———————————————–
EMPLACEMENT…49.4N 53.6W
ENVIRON 130 MI…210 KM NNO DE ST. JOHNS, TERRE-NEUVE
VENTS MAXIMUMS SOUTENUS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
MOUVEMENT ACTUEL…NNE OU 30 DEGRÉS À 45 MI/H…72 KM/H
PRESSION MINIMALE AU CENTRE…968 MO…28.59 POUCES

VEILLES ET AVERTISSEMENTS
——————–
CHANGEMENTS AVEC CET AVIS…

AUCUN.

RÉSUMÉ DES VEILLES ET DES AVERTISSEMENTS EN VIGUEUR…

UNE VEILLE D’OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR…
* TERRE-NEUVE DE PIERRES COVE À CHARLOTTETOWN

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR…
* TERRE-NEUVE DU PORT INDIEN DE TRITON

POUR TEMPÊTE D’INFORMATIONS SPÉCIFIQUE À VOTRE RÉGION…VEUILLEZ SURVEILLER
PRODUITS ÉMIS PAR LE CENTRE CANADIEN DE L’OURAGAN.

DISCUSSION ET PERSPECTIVES DE 48 HEURES
——————————
1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…LE CYCLONE CENTRE DE POST-TROPICALE
LESLIE ÉTAIT SITUÉE PRÈS DE NORTH LATITUDE 49,4…53,6 DE LONGITUDE OUEST.
LE CYCLONE POST-TROPICALE SE DÉPLACE VERS AU NORD-EST À 45
MPH…72 KH/H…ET UN TOUR AU NORD-EST ET À L’ENE EST
PRÉVUE DURANT LE JOUR SUIVANT OU.

LES VENTS MAXIMUMS SOUTENUS SONT PRÈS DE 70 MI/H…110 KM/H….AVEC PLUS
RAFALES. CE SYSTÈME DEVRAIT DEMEURER UNE FORTE POST-TROPICALE
CYCLONE POUR LE LENDEMAIN OU DEUX.

LES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE S’ÉTENDENT VERS L’EXTÉRIEUR JUSQU’À 345 MILLES…555 KM
PARTIR DU CENTRE.

MINIMUM ESTIMÉ LA PRESSION CENTRALE EST DE 968 MO…28.59 POUCES.

RISQUES TOUCHANT TERRE
———————-
VENT…VENTS DE FORCE TEMPÊTE-TROPICAL SERONT POURSUIVRA AU COURS DE L’EST
NEWFOUNDLAND À TRAVERS CET APRÈS-MIDI MAIS COMMENCERA PROGRESSIVEMENT À
S’AFFAISSER.

SURF…HOULE GÉNÉRÉE PAR LESLIE CONTINUERA À AFFECTER L’ATLANTIQUE
CANADA AUJOURD’HUI. CES HOULES POURRAIENT CAUSER Le MORTELLES SURF ET
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. VEUILLEZ CONSULTER LES PRODUITS DE VOTRE SECTION LOCALE
BUREAU MÉTÉOROLOGIQUE POUR PLUS D’INFORMATIONS.

PLUIE…PLUIES DIMINUE PROGRESSIVEMENT AU COURS DE LA JOURNÉE.

AVIS AUX PROCHAINES
————-
C’EST LE DERNIER AVIS PUBLIC ÉMIS PAR LE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTRE SUR CE SYSTÈME. DES INFORMATIONS SUPPLÉMENTAIRES SUR CE SYSTÈME PEUVENT ÊTRE
TROUVÉ EN HAUTE MER PRÉVISIONS ÉMISES PAR LA MÉTÉO NATIONALE
SERVICE…SOUS L’EN-TÊTE DE AWIPS NFDHSFAT1 ET FZNT01 DE L’EN-TÊTE DE L’OMM KWBC.

$$
PRÉVISIONNISTE AVILA

WOCN31 CWHX 111145
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 9:15 AM ADT Tuesday
11 September 2012.
———————————————————————
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Labrador
      Newfoundland
      Nova Scotia.

      For post-tropical storm Leslie.

      The next intermediate statement will be issued at 12:00 PM ADT.
      Followed by the next full statement issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

      Leslie made landfall near Fortune on the Burin Peninsula and
      Still packing a Wallop.

———————————————————————
Tropical cyclone information statement ended for:
Prince Edward Island.

———————————————————————
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 AM ADT.

Location: near 47.6 north 54.8 west.

About 60 kilometres north of Fortune, nl.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/hour.

Present movement: north-northeast near 65 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 969 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect for parts
of southern and Eastern Newfoundland being directly affected by
post-tropical storm Leslie this morning.  Rainfall warnings are in
effect all of Newfoundland but the southeast.

The centre of Leslie made landfall on the Southern Burin Peninsula
near the town of Fortune at 8:30 AM NDT.  It should be kept in mind
that this is a large system with widespread impacts and the exact
landfall point isn’t that important.  Rain bands extend well
northward and to the west of Leslie and are currently giving very
heavy rainfall rates on the order of 25 millimetres per hour to parts
of the Burin Peninsula and points north.  Current observation show
amounts in excess of 60 millimetres over parts of Western
Newfoundland with significantly more expected for Central and Western
Newfoundland.  Southeast winds are strengthening rapidly ahead and
east of Leslie.  St. John’s international airport is currently
showing sustained storm force winds of 90 km/h gusting to near
hurricane force at 131 km/h; Long Pond had a gust to hurricane force
at 124 km/h; Cape Race recently reported a wind gust to 100 km/h;
Argentia has gusted to 120 km/h; Winterland and St. Lawrence on the
Burin Peninsula recently reported a wind gust to 83 and 95 km/h
respectively.  A private weather station at cape pine on the Southern
Avalon recently reported a hurricane force wind gust of 137 km/h.

Much-smaller hurricane Michael has just been downgraded to a tropical
storm.  It is well to the south of Leslie and is not expected to have
any impact on the region.  It has been bypassed by Leslie’s large
circulation and will dissipate as it passes east of the Grand Banks
over the next day or two.

A. Wind.

A 2:00 AM ADT report from an offshore buoy very near the centre of
Leslie reported sustained winds of 85 km/h and a wind gust of
115 km/h, and at 7 AM ADT the smart bay buoy in Placentia Bay showed
78 km/h gusting to 100.  This combined with the many high winds at
shore stations already mentioned support sustained marginal hurricane
windspeeds east of the storm centre with higher gusts.

Leslie has a huge wind circulation with strong and gusty
northwesterly winds affecting most of the Maritimes today.
The strongest winds from Leslie are confined to Eastern Newfoundland
in areas 100 to 300 kilometres to the right of the track, where
southerly winds of 80 gusting to 120+ km/h are occurring.
Northwesterly winds behind Leslie are not expected to be quite as
strong at this time but gusts to 90 or 100 km/h are possible for
parts of western and Northern Newfoundland.  In Nova Scotia the
strongest winds behind the storm will be over Cape Breton where gusts
to 80 km/h are expected this morning.

Wind impacts include the some tree damage amd minor damage to some
structuresn, especially over Eastern Newfoundland with wind gusts
over 120 km/h.  This will continue lead to downed utility lines and
some property damage.

B. Rainfall.

The slow-moving frontal system has already drenched parts of Nova
Scotia, pei and Western Newfoundland, with some areas already
receiving well in excess of 100 millimetres.  The highest amounts
currently reported for Newfoundland are in to 40 to 60 millimetres
range for Western Newfoundland, with more expected.  Computer models
and experience with these merging tropical systems in the past show
that event-total rainfall of 150 millimetres, with locally even
higher amounts possible before the rain pulls out of Newfoundland
during theday Tuesday.  The location of the heaviest rainfall will be
in the areas west of Leslie’s track and where its moisture interacts
strongest with the trough, which for now includes Central and Western
Newfoundland.

Rainfall impacts from this storm include the possibility of street
flooding, property erosion and road and bridge washouts.  Hazards for
motorists include reduced visibilities, hydroplaning, flooded
sections of road, and possible compromised roadbeds and bridges.

C. Surge/waves.

And increasing there has been some surge accompanying Leslie’s
arrival this morning but the coincident low tides along the south
coast have kept water levels fairly moderate.

Large long period waves are occurring over Southern Newfoundland and
near the east coast.  Waves of 4-7 metres are forecast for the
southwest coast of Newfoundland increasing to 8-12 metres for the
Placentia Bay area then diminishing to 5 to 8 metres east of the
Avalon Peninsula.  Wave in excess of 10 metres have already occurred
on Placentia Bay.  These wave should diminish by afternoon along the
south coast and Placentia Bay, but will persist until later in the
afternoon or into the evening for the east coast.

These heavy pounding waves will lead to elevated waters levels and
some coastal erosion and the possibility of localized flooding in
exposed or vulnerable areas especially from Fortune east to Cape
Race.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for Newfoundland marine
waters to the east of the track.  Storm and gale warnings are in
effect for adjacent waters in Newfoundland and eastern Maritimes
waters.  Details can be found in the latest marine forecasts issued
from the Atlantic storm prediction center and the Newfoundland and
Labrador weather office.

Coastal impacts include possible damage to docks and wave overwash in
prone areas around the Southern Avalon, Placentia Bay and the Burin
Peninsula.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

– forecast position, central pressure table.

– strength and predicted wind radii table.

– hurricane track information map.

– technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/MERCER/FOGARTY

En français :

WOCN41 CWHX 111145
Cyclone tropical information Déclaration mise à jour par le canadien
Centre de prévision d’ouragan d’Environnement Canada à 09:15 mardi
11 Septembre 2012.
———————————————————————
Cyclone tropical déclaration de renseignements pour :
Labrador
Newfoundland
La Nouvelle-Écosse.

Pour la tempête post-tropicale Leslie.

La prochaine déclaration intermédiaire sera délivrée à 12:00 ADT.
Suivie de la prochaine déclaration complète de 15:00 ADT.

Leslie a touché terre près de Fortune sur la péninsule de Burin et
Encore emballer un Wallop.

———————————————————————
Cyclone tropical information état terminé pour :
Île du Prince Édouard.

———————————————————————
== discussion ==
1. Résumé des informations de base à 9 h 00 AM ADT.

Lieu : près de 47,6 54,8 Nord-Ouest.

Environ 60 kilomètres au nord de Fortune, nl.

Maximale soutenue des vents : 120 km/heure.

Présenter le mouvement : direction près de 65 km/h.

Pression minimale au Centre : 969 MB.

2. Public météo sur les impacts et résumé des avertissements.

Avertissements de tempête tropicale et ouragan montres sont en vigueur pour les parties
du Sud et l’est de Terre-Neuve sont directement touchés par
tempête post-tropicale Leslie ce matin. Les avertissements de pluie sont en
effet tous de Terre-Neuve mais le sud-est.

Le centre de Leslie a touché terre dans le sud de la péninsule Burin
près de la ville de Fortune à 08:30 Hat. Il doit garder à l’esprit
qu’il s’agit d’un grand système avec impacts généralisées et l’exacte
point de folie n’est pas important. Bandes de pluie s’étend bien
vers le Nord et à l’ouest de Leslie et sont actuellement en donnant très
taux de fortes pluies sur l’ordre de 25 millimètres par heure pour pièces
de la péninsule de Burin et le Nord. Salon d’observation actuelle
montants excédant 60 millimètres sur les parties de l’ouest
Terre-Neuve avec significativement plus attendue pour centrale et ouest
Terre-Neuve. Vents du sud-est sont rapidement à venir renforcer et
nord-est de Leslie. Aéroport international de St. John’s est actuellement
tempête soutenue montrant la force des vents de 90 km/h avec des rafales à près de
force d’ouragan à 131 km/h ; Étang long avait une rafale de force d’ouragan
à 124 km/h ; Cape Race a récemment rapporté une rafale de vent à 100 km/h ;
Argentia a rafales de 120 km/h ; Winterland et Saint-Laurent sur la
La péninsule Burin a récemment rapporté une rafale de vent à 83 et 95 km/h
respectivement. Une station météo privée à pin Cap sur le sud
Avalon a récemment rapporté une rafale de vent de force ouragan de 137 km/h.

Très petit ouragan Michael a juste été déclassé pour un tropical
tempête. Il est bien au sud de Leslie et ne devrait pas avoir
aucun impact sur la région. Il a été contourné par Leslie grand
circulation et dissipera qu’il passe à l’est des grands bancs
au cours de la prochaine journée ou deux.

A. vent.

Un rapport ADT 02:00 par une bouée au large des côtes très près du centre de
Leslie a signalé des vents soutenus de 85 km/h et une rafale de vent de
115 km/h, et 7 HAA la bouée baie intelligente dans la baie de plaisance ont montré
78 km/h avec des rafales à 100. Ceci combiné avec les vents forts nombreux à
stations côtières déjà mentionné ouragan marginal soutenue de soutien
vent à l’est du centre de la tempête avec des rafales plus élevées.

Leslie a une circulation vent énorme avec fort et irrégulier
vents du Nord-Ouest qui touchent la plupart des Maritimes aujourd’hui.
Les plus forts vents de Leslie se limitent à l’est de Terre-Neuve
de 100 à 300 kilomètres à droite de la piste, les zones où
les vents du sud de 80 noeuds avec des rafales à 120++ km/h sont produisent.
Vents du Nord-Ouest derrière Leslie ne devraient pas être tout à fait aussi
forte à cette époque mais les rafales à 90 ou 100 km/h sont possibles pour les
certaines parties de l’Ouest et du Nord de Terre-Neuve. En Nouvelle-Écosse le
des vents plus forts derrière la tempête sera au Cap-Breton où rafales
à 80 km/h sont attendus ce matin.

Les effets de vent incluent les quelques arbres dommages amd dommages mineurs à certains
structuresn, tout particulièrement à l’est de Terre-Neuve avec des rafales de vent
plus de 120 km/h. Cela continuera de plomb de cables au sol et
certains dommages à la propriété.
B. pluie.

Le système frontal lent a déjà saturées de parties de Nova
Nouvelle-Écosse, l’île et ouest de Terre-Neuve, avec certains secteurs déjà
recevoir bien plus de 100 millimètres. Les montants plus élevés
actuellement déclarées pour Newfoundland sont de 40 à 60 millimètres
gamme pour l’ouest de Terre-Neuve, avec les plus attendus. Modèles informatiques
et de l’expérience avec les systèmes tropicaux dans le dernier spectacle de fusion
Cet événement-total précipitations de 150 millimètres, avec localement même
quantités plus élevées possibles avant que la pluie se retire de la Newfoundland
au cours de l’attrait mardi. L’emplacement des précipitations plus lourde sera
dans les zones à l’ouest de la piste de Leslie et où son humidité interagit
plus forte avec la fosse, qui comprend la centrale et ouest
Terre-Neuve.

Les impacts des précipitations de cette tempête incluent la possibilité de la rue
inondations, érosion de la propriété et lavages de routes et de ponts. Dangers pour
les automobilistes comprennent la visibilité réduite, aquaplanage, inondée
sections de la route, et possible compromis plates-formes des routes et des ponts.

C. surge et vagues.

Et augmentant il y a eu certaines ondes accompagnement Leslie
arrivée ce matin mais les marées coïncide le long du Sud
côte ont gardé des niveaux d’eau assez modéré.

Grosses vagues de longue périodes sont produisent au sud de Terre-Neuve et
près de la côte est. Des vagues de 4 à 7 m sont prévues pour la
côte sud-ouest de Terre-Neuve à 8-12 mètres pour les
Région de la baie Placentia puis diminuant de 5 à 8 mètres est de la
La péninsule d’Avalon. Onde supérieure à 10 mètres ont déjà eu lieu
sur la baie de plaisance. Ces ondes devrait diminuer en après-midi le long de la
côte sud et la baie de plaisance, mais persistent jusqu’au plus tard dans les
après-midi ou en soirée pour la côte est.

Ces lourds martèlement des vagues conduira à des niveaux élevés d’eaux et
certains l’érosion côtière et la possibilité d’inondations localisées dans
zones exposées ou vulnérables surtout de l’est de la Fortune à Cap
Course.

3. Marine météo sur les impacts et résumé des avertissements.

Avertissements de vents de force ouragan sont en vigueur pour la marine de la Newfoundland
eaux à l’est de la piste. Les avertissements de tempête et gale sont dans
effet des eaux adjacentes à Terre-Neuve et Maritimes de l’est
eaux. Plus de détails se trouvent dans les dernières prévisions marines délivrées
de l’Atlantique storm prediction center et la Terre-Neuve et
Bureau météorologique de Labrador.

Impacts côtiers comprennent les dommages possibles aux quais et submersion dans les vagues
régions sujettes à autour de l’Avalon du Sud, la baie de plaisance et le Burin
Péninsule.

Visitez le Bureau météorologique.Gc.ca/Hurricane (tout en minuscules) pour la
plus récents :

-prévision de position, tableau de pression centrale.

-Force et tableau de prévisions de vent rayons.

-Ouragan sur piste renseignements sur la carte.

-discussion technique.

Veuillez également consulter les prévisions publiques et marines et avertissements
émises par Environnement Canada pour votre région.

FIN/MERCER/FOGARTY

 

Newfoundland Power: STAY AWAY from trees and downed power lines. Power lines should be considered “live” and extremely dangerous. Do not try to move.

WWCN16 CWHX 111324
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:54 AM NDT TUESDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND...

WIND WARNING FOR:
      ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
      AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
      CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA PENINSULA
      TERRA NOVA
      BONAVISTA NORTH
      BAY OF EXPLOITS
      BURIN PENINSULA
      CONNAIGRE
      BURGEO - RAMEA.

      WIND GUSTS OF 120 TO 140 KM/HOUR ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
      PASSAGE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

      THIS IS A WARNING THAT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE OCCURRING
      IN THESE REGIONS.  MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR
      UPDATED STATEMENTS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
      ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
      AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
      CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA PENINSULA
      TERRA NOVA
      BONAVISTA NORTH
      BAY OF EXPLOITS
      BURIN PENINSULA
      CONNAIGRE
      BURGEO - RAMEA.

      TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

      A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
      63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
      HOURS.  BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
      LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
      ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
      AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
      CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA PENINSULA
      BURIN PENINSULA.

      POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HURRICANE CONDITIONS TODAY.

      A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT
      HURRICANE CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
      AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS ENDED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND...

RAINFALL WARNING ENDED FOR:
      TERRA NOVA
      GANDER AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA NORTH
      BAY OF EXPLOITS
      GREEN BAY - WHITE BAY
      GRAND FALLS-WINDSOR AND VICINITY
      BUCHANS AND THE INTERIOR
      CONNAIGRE
      BURGEO - RAMEA
      CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES AND VICINITY
      BAY ST. GEORGE
      CORNER BROOK AND VICINITY
      DEER LAKE - HUMBER VALLEY
      GROS MORNE
      PARSON'S POND - HAWKE'S BAY
      PORT SAUNDERS AND THE STRAITS
      NORTHERN PENINSULA EAST.

      RAIN HAS EASED OR ENDED.  SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ARE
      NOT EXPECTED.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 1100 AM NDT POST-TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND.  LESLIE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA THIS
AFTERNOON.  STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 120 TO 140 KM/H
EAST OF LESLIE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
BEHIND LESLIE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 100 KM/H WILL
DEVELOP.

AS WELL LARGE WAVES AND POUNDING SURF ARE EXPECTED ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST POSITION AND TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/..

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2012 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm LESLIE (AL12) currently located near 49.4 N 53.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Greenland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Iceland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 45 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Atlantique N: Tempête Alerte émise à 11 Sep, 2012 15:00 GMT (dernier avertissement)

Tempête tropicale LESLIE (AL12) actuellement situé près de 49,4 n 53,6 w est prévu pour frapper la terre à la likelihood(s) suivante le time (s) de plomb donné :
Country(s) alerte rouge ou province
Canada
probabilité de CAT 1 ou supérieur est actuellement de 35 %
probabilité de TS est 100 % actuellement

Country(s) alerte jaune ou province
Groenland
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 21 heures
Islande
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 45 heures
les îles Féroé
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Écosse
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Irlande
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Irlande du Nord
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Angleterre
probabilité de TS est de 70 % à environ 69 heures
l’île de Man
probabilité de TS est de 65 % à environ 69 heures
City(s) d’alerte jaune et Town(s)
Grand-Sault (48,6 N, 55,4 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % actuellement
De Saint-Jean (47,6 N, 52,7 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % actuellement
Tórshavn (62,0 N, 6,8 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Stornoway (58,3 N, 6,4 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Ullapool (58,0 N, 5.2 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Kirkwall (59,0 N, 3,0 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Mèche (58,5 N, 3.1 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Portree (57,5 N, 6.2 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Oban (56,3 N, 5,5 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Reykjavik (64,1 N, 21,9 W)
probabilité de TS est de 90 % à environ 45 heures
Lerwick (60.2 N, 1,2 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Aberdeen (57,2 N, 2.1 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Dundee (56,5 N, 3,0 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Glasgow (55,9 N, 4.3 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Ardara (54,8 N, 8,4 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Édimbourg (55,8 N, 3.1 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Stranraer (55,0 N, 5.0 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Belfast (54,6 N, 5,9 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Sligo (54,3 N, 8,4 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Belmullet (54.2 N, 10,0 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Workington (54,6 N, 3.4 W)
probabilité de TS est de 65 % à environ 69 heures
Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
probabilité de TS est de 65 % à environ 69 heures
Dublin (53.3 N, 6,3 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 60 % à environ 69 heures
Newcastle (55,0 N, 1,6 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 55 % à environ 69 heures
Holyhead (53.3 N, 4,5 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 55 % à environ 69 heures

Notez que
Red Alert (sévère) est CAT 1 ou supérieur à entre 31 % et 100 % de probabilité.
Alerte jaune (élevée) est CAT 1 ou supérieur à entre 10 % et 30 % de probabilité, ou TS à au-dessus de 50 % de probabilité.
CAT 1 signifie que les vents de force ouragan au moins 74 mph, 119 km/h ou 1 min 64 nœuds soutenue.
TS signifie vents de force tempête tropicale au moins 39 mi/h, 63 km/h ou 1 min 34 nœuds soutenue.

Pour information prévision graphique et de plus amples renseignements, veuillez visiter http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

In Bermuda….
Hotels get ready for Leslie
Elbow Beach sees tourists cancel holidays

By Elizabeth Roberts royalgazette.com

Hotels and businesses are busy getting ready for Tropical Storm Leslie, which could hit Bermuda as a Category 2 hurricane on Sunday.

Some venues have already experienced cancellations.

Sophie Dier, Director of Communications at the Elbow Beach Hotel on South Shore Road, Paget, said around a third of their bookings have been cancelled for this weekend due to the potential arrival of Tropical Storm Leslie.

“We were going to have 62 rooms occupied, but we have now had about 20 room cancellations, so to date we will now only have 42 rooms occupied,” she said.

“Our reservations team is expecting call volume to continue to increase regarding cancellations for this weekend as the storm moves closer.”

Ms Dier added: “Due to the potential threat to Bermuda, Elbow Beach is closely monitoring the path of Tropical Storm Leslie. The hotel has a comprehensive hurricane preparation plan and preliminary precautionary steps are already underway.

“The hotel’s risk management team is liaising with local authorities and continues with preparations for the storm’s arrival to ensure that all possible safety measures are in place.

“All South Shore beaches, including Elbow Beach, are closed to swimmers at this time and we are actively informing our guests of this for their safety. A red ‘no swimming’ flag has been posted at our beach entrance. Our hotel facilities and dining outlets will remain open for as long as possible, depending on the progress of the storm.”

The Mickey’s Bistro and Bar has been damaged by strong waves on the South Shore in the past.

Ms Dier said: “Mickey’s Beach Bistro and Bar will have all removable fixtures and fittings taken away and secured and will then be boarded up to prevent damage from the storm. This will allow us to reopen the restaurant as soon as possible once the storm has passed.”

David Dodwell Jr, resort manager at the The Reefs Hotel and Club on South Shore Road, Southampton, said: “We are in the process of preparing the property to make it as safe as possible during the storm, which will include securing outdoor furniture, etc over the next few days.

“We have not had many guests decide to leave early, as of yet, but we are of course offering as many options as possible to help in any way they need and are making preparations for the guests that do stay through the storm. We haven’t had any official meetings yet with guests, as it is still early, but have information posted on the storm and are answering questions as needed.”

John Harvey of the Bermuda Hotel Association said it is still gathering statistics from its members on the total number of cancellations and rebookings due to the storm.

“It’s still too early to tell but I’m sure those guests who intended to come to Bermuda this weekend are probably reconsidering their vacation and will shortly rebook. Those that are here will be discussing whether to leave as soon as possible,” he said.

However, he believes from past experience that others may decide to stick around and make the best of the storm.

“Some who are booked into central Hamilton hotels may rebook to those on the South Shore to enjoy the view,” he said.

Colonial Insurance said it was staying open until 6pm today and tomorrow so customers can ensure their home and motor insurance policies are up-to-date and adequate to cover any loss due to storm damage. People can call 296-3700 or go to their Reid Street office for help.

Joanne MacPhee, executive director of the Bermuda Chamber of Commerce advised members that a full meeting of the Emergency Measures Organisation, including Chamber representatives, will be held tomorrow.

She encouraged “all members directly involved in the sale of hurricane supplies and services, including our grocers, wholesalers and insurance partners” to note contact information for the Chamber so it can disseminate information to the public before, during, and after the storm.

She added: “Let’s hope this is all precautionary and we sail through Leslie unscathed.”