United States: Tropical Storm IRMA 11/2100Z Update from NHC and others – Updated 11 Sep 2017 2145z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM IRMA

IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA – NHC

⚠️

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to the South Santee River
* North of Clearwater Beach to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

SPECIAL EMERGENCY MESSAGE FROM NWS

152552_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind TS IRMA Adv 51

 

152552_earliest_reasonable_toa_34 51

activity_looprb_lalo-animated2

southeast_loop

Robins Air Force Base, GA Radar

Wind Probs  

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

…IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…31.5N 84.0W
ABOUT 10 MI…15 KM E OF ALBANY GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM S OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warnings from Fernandina Beach southward, from
the Aucilla River westward, and from Clearwater Beach southward,
including Tampa Bay, have been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Flagler/Volusia County line to
Altamaha Sound is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from north of the Suwannee River to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to the South Santee River
* North of Clearwater Beach to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 84.0 West. Irma is
moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a
turn toward the northwest is expected by Tuesday morning. On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will continue to move over
southwestern Georgia tonight and move into Alabama on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Irma is likely
to become a tropical depression on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

North of Clearwater Beach to Aucilla River…4 t 6 ft
West of Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River…1 to 3 ft
Clearwater Beach to Bonita Beach including Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft

South Santee River to North of Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Flagler/Volusia County line, including the St.
Johns River…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area into tonight.

Rainfall: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

South Carolina and north-central Georgia and Alabama into the
southern Appalachians…3 to 6 inches with isolated 10 inches.
Northern Mississippi and southern portions of Tennessee and North
Carolina…2 to 4 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight along the South
Carolina coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Impacts Local Statement
Miami, FL Threats and Impacts 1125 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Charleston, SC Not currently available 1139 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Tallahassee, FL Threats and Impacts 1141 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 /1041 AM CDT Mon Sep 11
Atlanta, GA Threats and Impacts 1147 AM EDT Mon Sep 11
Birmingham, AL Threats and Impacts 1124 AM CDT Mon Sep 11
Melbourne, FL Threats and Impacts 233 PM EDT Mon Sep 11
Tampa Bay Area, FL Threats and Impacts 456 PM EDT Mon Sep 11
Jacksonville, FL Threats and Impacts 515 PM EDT Mon Sep 11

============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2017 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRMA is currently located near 31.5 N 84.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). IRMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Charlotte (35.2 N, 80.8 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Atlanta (33.8 N, 84.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Montgomery (32.4 N, 86.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Nashville (36.1 N, 86.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
    Louisville (38.4 N, 86.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

201711N tsr1 irma 11

201711N_0 tsr2 irma 11

=============================================================================

Other

 

at201711_5day ts irma

at201711_sat ts irma

 

The two images above are from @wunderground

Ferocious Irma Pounding Florida, But It Could Have Been Worse

No Rest for the Hurricane-Weary: Jose a Potential East Coast Threat

windy.com – interactive animated wind map

Caribbean_general_map

Caribbean General Map (Image: Kmusser)

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 112035

WTNT21 KNHC 112035
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WARNINGS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD… FROM
THE AUCILLA RIVER WESTWARD… AND FROM CLEARWATER BEACH
SOUTHWARD… INCLUDING TAMPA BAY… HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND IS DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* NORTH OF CLEARWATER BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC… AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….360NE 230SE 150SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 390SE 390SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 33.1N 85.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…220NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.8N 88.8W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.0N 88.5W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 84.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

=============================================================================

000
FZNT25 KNHC 112138
OFFN04

NAVTEX Marine Forecast
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
538 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

…Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available
through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed
Coastal Waters Forecasts…

Southeast Gulf of Mexico

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Irma near 31.5N 84.0W, 985 mb moving
NNW at 15 kt at 5 PM EDT, and inland over SW Georgia. Maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Irma will continue moving NNW
and and weaken to a depression as it move farther N. A weak
pressure pattern will set up across the Gulf in the wake of Irma
through the remainder of the week. N to NE swell from Irma will
dominate seas across the Gulf through Tue.

.TONIGHT…W to NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt
late in the night. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. Slight
chance of showers.
.TUE…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft,subsiding to
3 to 5 ft late in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning,
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.THU…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.THU NIGHT…S winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E after midnight.
Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI NIGHT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

Within 200 nm east of the coast of Florida

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Storm Irma near 31.5N 84.0W, 985 mb moving
NNW at 15 kt at 5 PM EDT, and inland over SW Georgia. Farther E,
Hurricane Jose is near 26.4N 69.2W, 973 mb moving N at 10 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts to 105 kt. Jose is expected
to move to 27.2N 69.0W tonight, to 27.0N 67.7W Tue afternoon, to
26.3N 66.7W Tue night, to 25.3N 66.1W Wed afternoon, to 24.4N
68.6W Thu afternoon, before moving slowly NW thereafter as its
completes this clockwise loop. Swell from Jose will dominate
area waters Tue through Fri.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TONIGHT…SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt S of 27N, and SW 20 to 25 kt
N of 27N. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE…W winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and SW to W 15 to 20 kt N of
27N. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT…SW winds less than 5 kt S of 27N, and SW to W 10 to
15 kt N of 27N. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.WED…S of 27N,SW to W winds less than 5 kt, shifting to N late
in the afternoon. N of 27N,SW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E to
SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Slight chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU…NE to E winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in NE swell.
.THU NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT…N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NE swell.
.SAT NIGHT…NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NE swell.

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Hurricane IRMA signpost

CAT 1 HURRICANE IRMA

094751_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind IRMA 11

rb_lalo-animated irma 11

On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near the northwestern coast of the #Florida Peninsula this morning, cross the eastern Florida Panhandle into southern #Georgia this afternoon, and move through southwestern Georgia and eastern #Alabama tonight and Tuesday – NHC 11/0900utc

Signpost – Please follow this link: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2017/09/11/united-states-cat1-hurricane-irma-110900z-update-from-nhc-and-others-updated-11-sep-2017-1111z-gmtutc/

United States (FL): Tropical Storm EMILY 311800Z nr 27.6N 82.2W, moving E at 10 mph (NHC FL) – Published 31 Jul 2017 1825z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm EMILY

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida

National Hurricane Center (FL)

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311748
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

…EMILY LOCATED INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM SE OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM SW OF BARTOW FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 85 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Anclote River
southward to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.2 West. Emily is
moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed are expected by tonight
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will
continue to move farther inland over the west-central Florida
peninsula this afternoon, and move across central Florida through
tonight. Emily is forecast to move offshore of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression
while it moves across the Florida peninsula this afternoon and
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km),
mainly southeast through south of the center. A wind gust to 38 mph
was recently observed in Punta Gorda, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central
Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts
up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida,
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4
inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area
through this afternoon.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado could occur across the central and
southern Florida Peninsula today, with isolated waterspouts
possible over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1434

WTNT21 KNHC 311434
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017
1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 20NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.7N 81.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.9N 79.6W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.2N 75.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.3N 70.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.7N 63.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 82.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three 20/1200Z nr 25.4N 90.3W, moving NW 08 kt (NHC FL) – Published 20 Jun 2017 1218z (GMT/UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AL03)

(Future TS Cindy)

A Tropical Storm Warning for…Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201138
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

…DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.4N 90.3W
ABOUT 265 MI…430 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Cameron to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.4 North, longitude 90.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected
Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance
is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.

Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is
gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system
will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1000.6 mb (29.54
inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning.

STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AL03 is currently located near 24.8 N 90.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). AL03 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 35% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
    Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
714 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 20/1200 UTC, is near 11.1N
63.6W, or about 17 nm to the ENE of La Isla de Margarita of
Venezuela. It is moving WNW westward, 290 degrees, 18 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Caribbean
Sea from 10N to 16N between 60W and 68W. Please read the NHC
Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 20/1200 UTC,
is near 25.4N 90.3W, about 230 nm to the SSW of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. It is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 8 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong is in the waters from 26N to 30N
between 83W and 90W, and from 25N south between 83W and 87W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers inland areas
and coastal waters areas from the northern half of Guatemala
into the southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula, including in
the coastal waters of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the
NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/35W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
03N to 08N southward between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, most
probably related to the ITCZ, from 06N to 08N between 40W and
46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/71W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to
06N33W, and 03N43W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
from 04N to 12N between 12W and 23W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 25W and 31W.

…DISCUSSION…

…THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough passes through southern
Louisiana, to a 26N94W cyclonic circulation center, to the Mexico
coast near 25N98W and 20N105W in Mexico. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 20N northward from 90W westward.

…CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD…

LIFR: none.

IFR: KGRY and KATP.

MVFR: KVQT, KMDJ, and KMIS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA…

TEXAS: MVFR in McAllen, and in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: occasional
MVFR and areas of light rain from Patterson eastward to Lake
Pontchartain, and southeastward into the SE corner of the state.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Natchez. light rain and LIFR in Pascagoula.
ALABAMA: MVFR and light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan
area. drizzle in Gulf Shores. light rain and LIFR in Fort Rucker
and Dothan. FLORIDA: rain, heavy at times, and LIFR conditions,
from Perry westward. LIFR/IFR around the Tampa/St. Petersburg
metropolitan area.

…THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, with a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic
circulation center. Tropical Storm Bret is set to move into the
SE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours.

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N74W in Colombia, through
Panama, northwestward through Costa Rica, and beyond, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N southward from 77W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 20/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…are 1.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao.

…HISPANIOLA…

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted
trough, is moving across the area. Rainshowers and thunder still
are possible across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: rain and thunder. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of cyclonic wind flow, with the current N-to-S oriented trough.
Expect southerly wind flow during the first half of day two,
followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the second half of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will
consist of the rest of the inverted trough moving through the area
completely, during day one. Day one will end with SE wind flow
moving across Hispaniola. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with
an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE-to-E wind flow.
Expect cyclonic wind flow with a separate inverted trough, during
day two. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an E-to-W
oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

…THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, to a 14N68W
Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W. Rainshowers and thunder still are
possible across Hispaniola.

An upper level trough passes through 32N32W to 21N35W. A cold
front passes through 32N24W to 25N41W and 31N57W. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward between 22W
and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward.
Widely scattered moderate is from 29N to 32N between 55W and 58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico/Cuba/US: Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Storm) KAREN 021800Z 25.8N 90.2W, moving NNW at 7.8 knots. Heading for Central Gulf Coast (NHC) – 041013 2045z

Tropical Cyclone (Tropical Storm) KAREN

KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST

 

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

 

Tropical Cyclone Warnings for Cuba and Mexico

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm Surge (Click image for source)

 

Mexico

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning in the Atlantic

 

Aviso Cicln Tropical en el Atlntico

 

Cuba

 

Tropical Cyclone Warning

 

Aviso de Cicln Tropical

 

United States

 

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

 

Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information the NHC site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.

 

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

(Image: NHC)

WTNT32 KNHC 041758
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

…KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.8N 90.2W
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY…WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO…WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220
KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001
LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES…50 KM…EAST OF THE CENTER…RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH…68 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF
54 MPH…86 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY…1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY…3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY…1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY…2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY…1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON
THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT…MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

END

 

Other Reports

 

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

 

Little Change to Karen; U.S. HIt By a Blizzard, Severe Weather, and Santa Ana Winds

 

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:44 PM GMT on October 04, 2013

 

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Karen Forms in the Gulf of Mexico
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2013

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Tropical Storm Karen is proving resilient in the face of dry air and high wind shear, as the storm heads north-northwest at 10 mph towards Louisiana. A NOAA hurricane hunter plane is in the storm this morning, and found top surface winds near 60 mph and a central pressure of 1001 mb, a pressure 2 mb higher than on Thursday evening. NOAA buoy 42001 located about 60 miles (95 km) north-northeast of the center reported a sustained wind of 38 mph, gusting to 49 mph, at 8:45 am EDT. Satellite loops show that Karen has maintained a vigorous circulation this morning in the face of high wind shear of 25 knots from strong upper-level winds out of the west. These winds have driven dry air from the Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen’s core, making it difficult for heavy thunderstorms to build on the west and south sides of Karen’s center of circulation. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Ocean heat content is 20 – 40 kJ per square centimeter, which is fairly typical for this time of year, and does not increase the odds of rapid intensification. Strong southeasterly winds ahead of Karen are pushing tides about 1 – 1.5′ above normal along most of the Louisiana and Mississippi coast, as seen on our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Karen, taken at approximately 3:30 pm EDT on October 3, 2013. At the time, Karen had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Brooding clouds from Tropical Storm Karen hover over the waters offshore of Cancun, Mexico, at 11 am EDT October 3, 2013. Image credit: Mindy Saylor.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear for the next three days is expected to stay high, around 20 – 30 knots, according to the 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere is quite dry over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and this dry air combined with high wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification possible until landfall. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will bring higher wind shear near 30 knots and turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Saturday. The higher shear, combined with ocean temperatures that will drop to 28°C, may be able to induce weakening, and NHC has sharply reduced its odds of Karen achieving hurricane strength. The 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast from NHC put Karen’s best chance of becoming a hurricane as a 23% chance on Sunday at 2 am EDT. This is down from the 41% odds given in Thursday afternoon’s forecast. Most of the models show Karen intensifying by 5 – 10 mb on Saturday afternoon and evening as the storm nears the coast, as the storm interacts with the trough of low pressure turning it to the northeast. This predicted intensification may be because of stronger upper-level outflow developing (due to diverging winds aloft sucking up more air from the surface.) We don’t have much skill making hurricane intensity forecasts, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Karen do the opposite of what the models predict, and decay to a weak tropical storm just before landfall, due to strong wind shear. In any case, residents of New Orleans should feel confident that their levee system will easily withstand any storm surge Karen may generate, as rapid intensification of Karen to a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has a only a minuscule probability of occurring (1% chance in the latest NHC forecast.)

Since Karen is expected to make a sharp course change to the northeast near the time it approaches the south coast of Louisiana, the models show a wide range of possible landfall locations. The European and UKMET models are the farthest west, with a landfall occurring west of New Orleans. The GFS model is at the opposite extreme, showing a landfall about 400 miles to the east, near Apalachicola, Florida. NHC is splitting the difference between these extremes, which is a reasonable compromise. Most of Karen’s heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear when the storm makes landfall, and there will likely be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 – 3″ to the immediate west of where the center. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 – 8″ can be expected to the east. NHC’s 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast shows the highest odds of tropical storm-force winds to be at the tip of the Mississippi River at Buras, Louisiana: 66%. New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile, and Pensacola have odds ranging from 47% – 51%.

Most significant fire threat for Southern California in the past 5 years
A Santa Ana wind event is building over Southern California this morning, where wind gusts in excess of 50 mph have already been observed this morning. From the Los Angeles NWS office:

“Most significant fire weather threat across Southern California in past 5 years as strong Santa Ana wind event unfolds. In addition to the strength of winds being projected…the concerns with this event include the widespread nature and long duration of Santa Ana winds…very long period of single digit humidities…and extremely dry fuels approaching record levels. Red flag warnings are in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties overnight into Sunday. The onset of the offshore winds are expected to begin across the mountains by late evening…then descend into the lower elevations overnight. The peak of this Santa Ana wind event will likely be late tonight through Saturday morning…with the strongest winds focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties.”


Figure 3. A moderate risk for severe weather is predicted for this afternoon over Iowa and surrounding states.

A blizzard and a severe weather outbreak in the Midwest
The same low pressure system that is expected to turn Tropical Storm Karen to the northeast this weekend is hammering the Midwest with a variety of extreme weather today. Blizzard warnings are flying in Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota from the storm, and a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes is expected over much of Iowa this afternoon. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has done some research to see the last time a blizzard, major severe weather outbreak, tropical storm, and extreme fire danger all threatened the U.S. at the same time, and has not been able to find such an event in past history.

Portlight disaster relief charity ready to respond to Karen
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, are ready to respond to Tropical Storm Karen, if they are needed. You can check out their progress on the Portlight Blog or donate to Portlight’s disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

I’ll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters WunderBlog

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Its not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but thats what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karens center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karens core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change.
Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karens heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.

Ill have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tropical-storm-karen-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico#qmRpPcwIODi6mrzP.99

 

MARITIME

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

 

AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN AT 04/1800 UTC IS NEAR 25.8N
90.2W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 208 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER…AND ABOUT 240 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ABOUT KAREN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2…AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. A HURRICANE
WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS
OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC…ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN…
IS 0.49 IN MERIDA MEXICO.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N44W 15N47W 10N49W…
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE…TO
LOCALLY STRONG…FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 18N52W 16N56W…TO
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N57W. THE WAVE WAS
REPOSITIONED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N49W 24N50W…TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N51W. THIS TROUGH IS ENERGY THAT
IS RELATED TO THE 18N52W 14N57W TROPICAL WAVE…THAT WAS
STRETCHED OUT ALONG A NORTH-TO-SOUTH AXIS AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 45W AND 52W.

…THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W 8N20W 8N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N25W TO 5N35W
AND 5N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N
TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 13W…FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W…
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W…AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN
42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE
EAST OF 50W.

…DISCUSSION…

THE GULF OF MEXICO…

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL THE GULF OF MEXICO AREA THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL
STORM KAREN. THE EXCEPTION IS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W…

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGBK…
KVBS…KDLP…AND AT KEIR. LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE ICAO STATION KSPR. ICAO STATION KATP IS REPORTING A
VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES AND HAZE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS…
IN VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA…IN GALVESTON AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT
ARTHUR…SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS COVER THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAIN COVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA…AND IN COASTAL ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF MARY
ESTHER…LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS IN TALLAHASSEE AND
PERRY FLORIDA…BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE AT THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN
AIRPORT AND AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST…MIAOFFNT4…FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM KAREN.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…ACROSS HISPANIOLA…INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA…

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N67W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 27N67W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
23N68W…ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…TO
15N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO
22N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W…AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH
FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 250 MB SHOWS SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL
CUT ACROSS THE AREA AND COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
OR SO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 16N TO
22N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS OR LESS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. THIS FEATURE IS JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN COLOMBIA…TO 11N80W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…BEYOND 10N86W IN
COSTA RICA…INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND
81W AT 04/0915 UTC HAS WEAKENED COMPARATIVELY. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND
85W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO…
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE
27N67W CYCLONIC CENTER. THE EXCEPTION IS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N67W TO
26N73W TO 23N78W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO
28N49W AND 25N49W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 250 NM
TO 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH.

A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N36W TO 25N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION
ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N24W TO 25N31W…TO 29N47W…TO 32N55W…AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N66W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO
THE WEST OF 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic)FZNT02 KNHC 041532
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 04.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 05.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 06.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TROPICAL STORM KAREN AT 25.6N 90.2W 1003 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 04
MOVING N-NW OR 330 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS
55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT…
110 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO
33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.7N 90.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT…90 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
120 NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE
N OF 25N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 29.8N 88.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…40 NM SW
QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
150 NM E AND 75 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE
N OF 27N FROM 85 TO 90 WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL KAREN NEAR 33.5N
83.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 25 GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC 48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 77W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

END

 

Spanish (Translated by Google)

 

Cicln Tropical ( Tropical Storm ) KAREN

KAREN DENOMINACIN DE LA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* GRAND ISLE- LOUISIANA A OESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* MORGAN ciudad de Luisiana hasta la desembocadura del ro Perla

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS
* LAGO MAUREPAS
* Lago Pontchartrain
* DESTIN DE INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

Avisos de Ciclones Tropicales para Cuba y Mxico

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Satlite ( imagen Pica para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Previsin de 5 das ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

(Imagen: wunderground.com ) Storm Surge ( Click en la imagen para la fuente )

Mxico

Advertencia cicln tropical en el Atlntico

Aviso Cicln Tropical en el Atlntico

Cuba

Cicln Tropical Advertencia

Aviso de Cicln Tropical

Estados Unidos

El tiempo Nacional ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Debido al cierre del gobierno federal , NOAA.gov y sitios web ms relacionados estn disponibles. Sin embargo, como es necesario para proteger la vida y la propiedad de la informacin que el sitio ofrece NHC , se actualiza y se mantiene durante el cierre del gobierno federal.

[ Imagen de la prediccin de 5 das y las zonas costeras bajo una advertencia o un reloj ]

(Imagen: NHC )

WTNT32 TJSJ 041758
TCPSP2

BOLETN
TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT vie 04 de octubre 2013

… KAREN DENOMINACIN DE LA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO …

RESUMEN DE LAS 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … INFORMACIN
———————————————-
UBICACIN … 25.8N 90.2W
ACERCA DE MI 240 … 385 KM SSW DE LA BOCA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI
ACERCA DE MI 275 … 445 KM SSE DE MORGAN City Louisiana
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 50 MPH … 85 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … NNW O 335 GRADOS A 9 MPH … 15 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

NINGUNO.

RESUMEN DE LOS RELOJES Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* GRAND ISLE- LOUISIANA A OESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* MORGAN ciudad de Luisiana hasta la desembocadura del ro Perla

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS
* LAGO MAUREPAS
* Lago Pontchartrain
* DESTIN DE INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES
DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA . LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SE PUEDE CAMBIAR A A
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL O AVISO MAS TARDE HOY .

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS .

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA … GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 48 HORAS.

INTERESES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORESTE DEL GOLFO DE
MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE KAREN .

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
RELOJES Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA … FAVOR DE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR
SU LOCAL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS .

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
AT 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Karen
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.8 NORTE … LONGITUD 90.2 OESTE . KAREN ES
MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE – NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH … 15 KM / H. UN GIRO
HACIA EL NORTE Y UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE AVANCE SE ESPERAN POR
TEMPRANO EL SABADO . UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE SE ESPERA EN
Domingo … CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE AVANCE . EN LA PREVISIN
TRAYECTORIA … EL ​​CENTRO DE KAREN SE ESPERA QUE ESTAR CERCA DE LA COSTA DENTRO
EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL REA DE SBADO POR LA NOCHE .

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH … 85 KM / H…WITH SUPERIOR
RAFAGAS . POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS
SO … CON ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE Sbado noche, domingo .

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS … 220
KM … MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO . NOAA BOYA 42001
Situado a unos 35 MILLAS … 50 KM … AL ESTE DEL CENTRO … Recientemente
REPORTE UN VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 42 MPH … 68 KM / H…AND UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE
54 MPH … 86 KM / H.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 1003 MB … 29.62 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
VIENTO … CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DE PARTES DE LA
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL zona el sbado . CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON
POSIBLE EN PARTES DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DEL DOMINGO POR LA MAANA .

MAREJADA … LA COMBINACIN DE marejada y la marea CAUSAR
REAS normalmente secas cerca de la costa que se inund por las aguas en aumento.
El agua podra llegar a las siguientes alturas sobre suelo si el
SURGE PICO SE PRODUCE EN EL MOMENTO DE MAREA ALTA …

Al oeste del Mississippi River a Terrebonne Bay … 1 A 3 PIES
BOCA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI AL Mobile Bay … 3 A 5 FT
AL ESTE DE LA BAHA DE MVIL AL OESTE DE baha de Apalache … 1 a 3 pies
Baha de Apalache INCLUYENDO Cedar Key … 2 A 4 FT
SUR DE BAHA APALACHEE a Tampa Bay … 1 a 2 FT

EL AGUA MS ALTO SE PRODUCE POR LA COSTA INMEDIATA CERCA Y AL
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ACOMPAADO POR OLAS PELIGROSAS . INUNDACIONES SURGE RELACIONADA DEPENDE
LA DISTRIBUCIN RELATIVA DE LA SURGE Y EL CICLO DE MAREA … y puede variar
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LLUVIA … KAREN SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A ​​6
PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DEL CENTRO Y ESTE DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO A TRAVES
DOMINGO POR LA NOCHE … PRINCIPALMENTE CERCA Y AL DERECHO DE LA RUTA DE LA
CENTER . CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES .

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Otros informes

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Poco cambio de Karen , EE.UU. golpeado por una tormenta de nieve , tiempo severo , y Santa Ana Vientos

Publicado por : Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:44 GMT del 04 de octubre 2013

Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog

La tormenta tropical Karen se forma en el Golfo de Mxico
Publicado por : Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:09 GMT del 03 de octubre 2013

Obtenga ms informacin en

” La tormenta tropical Karen est demostrando ser resistente frente de aire seco y cortante de vientos fuertes , ya que la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste a 10 mph hacia Louisiana. Un avin cazador de huracanes de NOAA es en la tormenta esta maana, y encontr los mejores vientos cerca de la superficie de 60 mph y una presin central de 1001 mb , una presin superior a 2 mb en la noche del jueves . Boya de NOAA 42001 Situado a unos 60 millas ( 95 km) al norte -noreste del centro reportaron vientos sostenidos de 38 mph con rachas de hasta 49 kilmetros por hora, a las 8:45 am EDT. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen ha mantenido una vigorosa circulacin esta maana frente a la cizalladura del viento mximo de 25 nudos de fuertes vientos de nivel superior fuera del oeste. Estos vientos han impulsado aire seco desde el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen, lo que dificulta a fuertes tormentas que se apoye en los lados oeste y sur del centro de la circulacin de Karen. Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, y la temperatura de los ocanos son una muy clida 29 C ( 84 bis F). Contenido de calor del ocano es 20 – 40 kJ por centmetro cuadrado, lo que es bastante tpico para esta poca del ao , y no aumenta las probabilidades de una rpida intensificacin. Vientos del sureste fuertes delante de Karen estn presionando mareas cerca de 1 – 1.5 ‘ encima de lo normal a lo largo de la mayor parte de la costa de Louisiana y Mississippi, como se ve en nuestra WunderMap con la capa de la marejada encendido.

Figura 1 . Imagen de satlite MODIS de la tormenta tropical Karen , tomada aproximadamente a las 3:30 pm EDT del 3 de octubre de 2013. En ese momento, Karen tena vientos mximos de 65 mph. Crdito de la imagen : NASA .

Figura 2 . Empollamiento nubes de la tormenta tropical Karen flotar sobre las aguas en alta mar de Cancn, Mxico , a las 11 horas EDT 03 de octubre 2013 . Crdito de la imagen : Mindy Saylor .

Prediccin para Karen
Se espera cizalladura del viento para los prximos tres das se mantengan altos , alrededor de 20 a 30 nudos , segn el pronstico del modelo am EDT 8 BUQUES . El ambiente es muy seco sobre el oeste del Golfo de Mxico , y este aire seco combinado con alta cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo es lento intensificacin posible hasta tocar tierra. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados traer mayor cizalladura del viento cerca de 30 nudos y gire Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa el sbado . La cizalla superior, combinado con temperaturas ocenicas que se reducir a 28 C, puede ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y NHC ha reducido drsticamente sus probabilidades de Karen alcanzar la categora de huracn . El 05 a.m. Viernes Pronstico probabilidad viento EDT del NHC puso mejor oportunidad de convertirse en un huracn como una oportunidad de 23 % el domingo a las 2 am EDT de Karen. Esto est por debajo de los 41 % de probabilidad que figuran en el pronstico de la tarde del jueves . La mayora de los modelos muestran Karen intensificando a 5 – 10 mb en el sbado por la tarde y por la noche mientras la tormenta se acerca a la costa , mientras la tormenta interacta con el canal de girar hacia el noreste de baja presin. Esta intensificacin prevista puede ser causa de salida de nivel superior ms fuerte desarrollo (debido a la divergencia de los vientos en altura chupando ms aire de la superficie. ) No tenemos mucha habilidad haciendo pronsticos de intensidad de huracanes , as que no me sorprendera ver a Karen hacer lo contrario de lo que los modelos predicen , y la decadencia de una dbil tormenta tropical antes de tocar tierra, debido a la fuerte cizalladura del viento . En cualquier caso , los residentes de Nueva Orleans deben sentirse seguros de que su sistema de diques puede soportar fcilmente cualquier marejada Karen puede generar , como la rpida intensificacin de Karen a una categora 3 o ms fuerte huracn tiene slo una probabilidad nfima de ocurrencia ( probabilidad del 1% en las ltimas previsiones NHC ).

Dado que se espera que Karen para hacer un cambio de rumbo brusco hacia el noreste , cerca de la hora que se aproxima a la costa sur de Louisiana, los modelos muestran una amplia gama de posibles ubicaciones recalada . Los modelos europeos y UKMET son el oeste ms lejano , con un avistamiento de tierra que ocurren al oeste de Nueva Orleans. El modelo GFS se encuentra en el extremo opuesto , mostrando un avistamiento de tierra a unos 400 kilmetros al este, cerca de Apalachicola , Florida. NHC es dividir la diferencia entre estos dos extremos , que es un compromiso razonable . La mayor parte de las fuertes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento cuando la tormenta toque tierra , y es probable que haya precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1 – . 3 ” inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro de lluvias mucho mayores totales de 4 – 8 ” se puede esperar que este. 05 a.m. EDT Viernes Pronstico probabilidad viento del NHC muestra las probabilidades ms altas de los vientos de tormenta tropical para estar en la punta del ro Mississippi en Buras , Louisiana : 66 %. Nueva Orleans , Gulfport , Mobile y Pensacola han probabilidades que van desde 47 % – 51 %.

Amenaza de incendio ms importante para el sur de California en los ltimos 5 aos
Un evento de viento de Santa Ana est construyendo sobre el sur de California esta maana, cuando ya se han observado las rfagas de viento de ms de 50 mph de esta maana. Desde la oficina de NWS Los Angeles :

” Amenaza de tiempo incendios ms importantes en el sur de California en los ltimos 5 aos como un fuerte viento de Santa Ana evento se desarrolla. Adems de la fuerza de los vientos que se proyecta … las preocupaciones con este evento incluyen el carcter generalizado y de larga duracin de los vientos de Santa Ana . .. muy largo perodo de humedades de un solo dgito … y combustibles extremadamente secos llegan a niveles rcord. advertencias banderas rojas estn en vigor durante gran parte de los condados de Ventura durante la noche hasta el domingo en Los Angeles y . se espera que el inicio de los vientos hacia el mar para iniciar a travs de la montaas por la noche tarde … y luego descienden en las elevaciones ms bajas durante la noche. El pico de este evento de viento de Santa Ana probable que sea tarde esta noche hasta el sbado por la maana … con los vientos ms fuertes se centraron en los condados de los Angeles y Ventura . ”

Figura 3 . Un riesgo moderado de tiempo severo se pronostica para esta tarde sobre Iowa y estados vecinos .

Una tormenta de nieve y un brote de mal tiempo en el Medio Oeste
El mismo sistema de baja presin que se espera que pase a la tormenta tropical Karen en el noreste de este fin de semana est martillando el Medio Oeste con una variedad de condiciones climticas extremas hoy. Advertencias de Blizzard estn volando en Wyoming , Nebraska y Dakota del Sur de la tormenta , y un brote importante de tormentas severas con algunos tornados se espera que en la mayor parte de Iowa esta tarde. Wunderground tiempo historiador Christopher C. Burt ha hecho algunas investigaciones para ver la ltima vez que una tormenta de nieve , el mayor brote de mal tiempo , tormenta tropical, y el peligro extremo de incendio todos los amenazados los EE.UU. , al mismo tiempo, y no ha sido capaz de encontrar un evento en la historia pasada .

Portillo desastre caridad alivio listo para responder a Karen
La organizacin de socorro Portlight.org , fundada e integrada por miembros de la comunidad Wunderground , estn listos para responder a la tormenta tropical Karen , si son necesarios . Usted puede comprobar fuera de su progreso en el Blog Portillo o donar al fondo de ayuda humanitaria de Portillo en el sitio web portlight.org .

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters

” – Jeff Masters WunderBlog

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo de la Florida Panhandle sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo del Panhandle de Florida el sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo de la Florida Panhandle sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

Huracn relojes estn volando a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. como la tormenta tropical Karen dirige hacia el norte -noroeste hacia el Golfo de Mxico . Karen , la undcima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlntico 2013 , se form alrededor de 8 am EDT el jueves en el sudeste del Golfo de Mxico . No es frecuente que se ve una nueva tormenta empiezan con vientos sostenidos de 60 mph , pero eso es lo que un avin cazador de huracanes Fuerza Area encontr esta maana cerca de las 7:30 am EDT , cuando se tomaron muestras de la parte norte de la tormenta. Un barco se encuentra a unos 50 kilmetros al noreste de la punta noreste de la Pennsula de Yucatn midi vientos sostenidos de 51 mph cerca al mismo tiempo. Bucles de satlite muestran que Karen es una tormenta de tamao medio con una zona de tormentas muy intensas a lo largo de sus flancos norte y este . La cizalladura del viento ha aumentado desde el mircoles, y ahora es una moderadamente alta 20 nudos , gracias a los fuertes vientos de nivel superior desde el oeste -suroeste . Estos vientos fuertes se mantienen las fuertes tormentas se desarrolle en el lado oeste del centro de la circulacin de Karen, por la conduccin de aire seco que es la Pennsula de Yucatn y el oeste del Golfo de Mxico en el ncleo de Karen. Como resultado , Karen tiene una coma en forma desigual en las imgenes satelitales . Karen tiene un canal de salida de nivel superior fuerte para el norte que est ayudando a ventilar la tormenta, sin embargo, y las temperaturas ocenicas son un muy clido 29 C ( 84 bis F). Entre las 7 am y las 09:30 am EDT los Hurricane Hunters hicieron tres pases , aunque el centro de Karen , y la presin central permanecieron ms o menos constantes en 1004 mb , por lo que Karen no est pasando por muchos cambios.

Figura 1 . Las probabilidades de recibir ms de 4 ” de la lluvia en un perodo de cinco das a partir de las 02 a.m. EDT jueves 3 de octubre de 2013, segn lo predicho por el modelo GFDL conjunto experimental .

Prediccin para Karen
La cizalladura del viento aumentar constantemente mientras la tormenta se dirige al norte -noroeste , y de corte alcanzar un mximo de 25 nudos por la maana del sbado como Karen se acerca a la costa del Golfo de EE.UU. , segn el ltimo pronstico del modelo BUQUES . El ambiente crecer ms seco que Karen se mueve en el norte del Golfo de Mxico , y el aire ms seco combinado con el aumento de la cizalladura del viento retardar el desarrollo , por lo que slo la intensificacin lento probablemente a viernes. Un canal de baja presin y un frente fro asociado se mueve a travs de Louisiana el sbado, y los vientos del oeste en los niveles altos asociados ser capaz de convertir Karen ms al noreste , ya que se acerca a la costa en la noche del viernes y la maana del sbado . Cuanto ms alto cizallamiento en ese momento debe ser capaz de inducir debilitamiento y el 08 a.m. EDT Jueves probabilidad previsin de viento de NHC dio un 28 % de posibilidades de Karen ser un huracn a las 2 am EDT Sbado , frente al 44 % el viernes por la tarde . La mayora de los modelos predicen que toc tierra ocurrir a lo largo de la Florida Panhandle sbado por la tarde o por la noche occidental. El modelo europeo generalmente fiable Karen ha de tocar tierra sobre Luisiana del Este, sin embargo. Si Karen no seguir este camino ms hacia el oeste , la tormenta ser ms dbil, ya que no hay aire ms seco y ms alta cizalladura del viento del oeste. Dado que casi todos los grandes tormentas de Karen se desplazar al este con alta cizalladura del viento, habr precipitaciones relativamente bajas totales de 1-3 “, inmediatamente al oeste de donde el centro toque tierra . Mucho mayores totales de lluvia de 4-8 ” se puede esperar que este. Para juzgar las posibilidades de recibir los vientos de tormenta tropical en su ubicacin, le recomiendo usar el pronstico del NHC probabilidad viento. Las probabilidades ms altas de vientos de tormenta tropical ( 45 – 55 % ) estn a lo largo de la costa de Buras , Louisiana , a Pensacola , Florida.

Voy a tener un nuevo puesto esta tarde.

Jeff Masters
Obtenga ms informacin en

MARTIMO

Atlntico Tropical Tiempo Discusin

AXNT20 TJSJ 041804
TWDAT

DISCUSIN CLIMA TROPICAL
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT VIERNES 04 de octubre 2013

DISCUSIN CLIMA TROPICAL DE NORTE AMERICA CENTRAL …
AMERICA … GOLFO DE MEXICO … EL ​​MAR CARIBE … SECCIONES DEL NORTE DE
SOUTH AMERICA … Y OCANO ATLNTICO EN LA COSTA AFRICANA DE LA
ECUADOR PARA 32N . LA SIGUIENTE INFORMACIN EST BASADA EN SATELITE
OBSERVACIONES IMGENES … Tiempo … RADAR … y meteorolgicos
ANLISIS .

BASADO EN LA SUPERFICIE 1200 UTC ANLISIS E IMGENES POR SATLITE
1715 UTC.

… CARACTERSTICAS ESPECIALES …

EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN AT 04 /1800 UTC EST CERCA 25.8N
90.2W . Esta posicin tambin es de unos 208 NM AL SUR -SUROESTE
DE LA BOCA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI … Y COMO A 240 NM AL
Sur-sureste de Morgan City Louisiana. KAREN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA
EL NORTE – NOROESTE 8 NUDOS. LA CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA
PRESIN ES 1003 MB . LOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON VELOCIDADES DE VIENTO
45 NUDOS CON RAFAGAS HASTA 55 NUDOS. POR FAVOR LEA EL PBLICO
ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE KAREN que se emiten bajo la cabecera de la OMM
WTNT32 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZADO DE AWIPS MIATCPAT2 … Y EL
PRONSTICO / ADVERTENCIAS que se emiten bajo la cabecera de la OMM
WTNT22 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZADO DE AWIPS MIATCMAT2 . UN HURACN
VIGILANCIA Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HAN EMITIDO POR PARTES
DEL U.S.A. Costa del Golfo . Precipitacin convectiva …
DISPERSADAS a numerosos FUERTE DE 23N A 27N ENTRE 85W Y 90W .
QUEBRADA DE NUBES MULTICAPA Cubierto y otras posibles
PRECIPITACIN SON OTRA PARTE AL ESTE DE LA LNEA QUE FUNCIONA
DEL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA COSTERA DE LA ESQUINA NORESTE
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN . LAS LLUVIAS DE 24 HORAS total en pulgadas
CORRESPONDIENTE AL EJERCICIO CERRADO EL 04 /1200 UTC … SEGN EL PAN
TEMPERATURA DE LATINA Y TABLAS DE PRECIPITACIN … MIATPTPAN …
Es de 0,49 EN MERIDA MEXICO .

… ONDAS TROPICALES …

UN OCANO ATLNTICO ONDA TROPICAL ESTA JUNTO 20N44W 15N47W 10N49W …
CASI ESTACIONARIO DURANTE LOS ULTIMOS 6 HORAS. CONVECTIVO
PRECIPITACIN … AISLADO DE MODERADO muy dispersa … A
LOCALMENTE FUERTE … DESDE 9N A 16N ENTRE 40W Y 50W .

UN OCEANO ATLANTICO TROPICAL CURVAS onda a lo largo 18N52W 16N56W … A
A 1.012 MB ​​CENTRO DE BAJA PRESIN QUE EST CERCA 14N57W . LA ONDA ERA
Reposicionado PARA COINCIDIR CON IMAGENES DE SATELITE DE LARGO PLAZO .
Precipitacin convectiva … muy dispersos MODERADO A AISLADO
FUERTE DE 8N A 15N ENTRE 52W Y 60W .

A TRAVS DE LA SUPERFICIE ES LO LARGO 26N49W 24N50W … A UN 1012 MB ​​BAJA
CENTRO DE PRESIN QUE EST CERCA 21N51W . ESTE CANAL ES LA ENERGA QUE
Est relacionada con la 18N52W 14N57W ONDA TROPICAL … eso fue
Estir largo de un eje norte- Sur por lo menos 24 horas antes.
Precipitacin convectiva … MODERADO AISLADO DE 21N A 25N
ENTRE 45W Y 52W .

… LA ITCZ / LA vaguada monznica …

EL CANAL DEL MONZN PASA POR LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE GUINEA
CERCA 10N14W 8N20W 8N25W . La ZCIT contina desde 8N25W A 5N35W
Y 5N40W . Precipitacin convectiva … DISPERSOS FUERTE DE 6N
A 7N ENTRE 12W Y 13W … DESDE 6N DE 7N ENTRE 16W Y 17W …
DE 7N A 8N ENTRE 20W Y 22W … Y DESDE 7N A 9N ENTRE
42W Y 44W . AISLADO EN OTRA PARTE DE MODERADA A 10N 2N AL
AL ESTE DE 50W .

DISCUSIN … …

EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …

AIR COMPARATIVO SECADORA EN DEPRESION SEGN LO VISTO EN VAPOR DE AGUA
IMGENES cubre prcticamente TODO EL GOLFO DE MEXICO AREA QUE ES
AL OESTE DEL FLUJO DE VIENTO QUE SE MUEVE EN TODO TROPICAL
STORM KAREN . La excepcin es la HUMEDAD DE ALTO NIVEL QUE EL DE
EL SUR DEL 21N AL ESTE DE 96W en el extremo sudoeste
DE LA ZONA.

NIVEL SUPERIOR anticiclnica FLUJO DE VIENTO CUBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …
EL OCANO ATLNTICO … Y EL MAR CARIBE AL NORTE DEL 10N
Al oeste de 70W .

PARA LOS SITIOS DE PLATAFORMA OFFSHORE OIL QUE ESTN AL NORTE DEL 27N
Al oeste de 88W …

TECHOS nubes bajas se observan en LA OACI ESTACIONES KGBK …
KVBS … KDLP … Y EN KEIR . NUBE DE BAJA Y TECHOS Nubes Medias
CUBRIR LA OACI ESTACIN KSPR . OACI ESTACIN KATP informa que un
VISIBILIDAD DE 3 KILMETROS y Haze . SKIES FERIA / cielos despejados en o por
INFERIOR A 12.000 PIES estn siendo reportados en otros lugares del
AREA .

NUBES BAJAS ROTOS CUBREN LA BAJA RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS …
EN VICTORIA Y Port Lavaca … EN GALVESTON Y EN BEAUMONT / PUERTO
ARTHUR … esparcieron por nubes fragmentadas CUBIERTA DE HOUSTON
REA METROPOLITANA . NUBES MULTICAPA rota y cubierta para la lluvia
SUR DE LOUISIANA … y en la costa de Alabama . NIVEL Y MEDIO
Techos altos CLOUD NIVEL CUBIERTA FLORIDA AL OESTE DE MARA
ESTHER … NUBE DE BAJA Y TECHOS Nubes Medias de Tallahassee y
PERRY FLORIDA … NUBES ALTAS rotos son AT THE TAMPA METROPOLITANA
AEROPUERTO Y AL KEY WEST ESTACIN NAVAL AIR.

POR FAVOR LEA LA ALTA MAR PRONSTICO … MIAHSFAT2 … Y EL
PRONSTICO OFFSHORE … MIAOFFNT4 … Para ms detalles sobre TROPICAL
STORM KAREN .

Desde el Ocano Atlntico … A TRAVS LA ESPANOLA … EN EL CARIBE
SEA …

A WESTERN ATLNTICO MEDIO NIVEL DE CICLONICA NIVEL SUPERIOR
CENTRO DE CIRCULACION SE ACERCA 27N67W . FLUJO DE VIENTO CICLONICA CUBRE LA
OCANO ATLNTICO DE LAS ANTILLAS MAYORES A 30N ENTRE 60W Y
70W . UNA VAGUADA extiende desde el centro CICLONICA 27N67W A
23N68W … A TRAVS DE LA PARTE OCCIDENTAL DE LA REPBLICA DOMINICANA PARA …
15N73W en el Mar Caribe . Precipitacin convectiva …
DISPERSADAS a numerosos FUERTE EN EL OCANO ATLNTICO DE 20N A
22N ENTRE 64W Y 68W . Dispersas a moderada DISPERSOS
EN OTRA PARTE EN EL OCANO ATLNTICO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE
ESPANOLA DE 30N ENTRE 60W Y 70W … Y EN EL MAR CARIBE
EN LAS AGUAS COSTERAS DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA .

LA PREVISIN DE GFS 700 MB MUESTRA QUE LA ESPANOLA SER
RODEADO DE FLUJO DE VIENTO CICLONICA CON UNA VAGUADA INVERTIDA AMPLIA
Durante las primeras 24 a 30 horas del perodo del pronstico . SOUTHERLY
FLUJO DE VIENTO cubrir el rea PARA EL RESTO DEL PERIODO DE TIEMPO
LA VAGUADA INVERTIDA MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE Y NOROESTE . EL GFS
MODELO DE 500 MB y 250 MB PARA MUESTRA MUESTRA QUE A TRAVS DE LA VOLUNTAD
CORTE A TRAVES DEL AREA Y CUBRIR LA ESPANOLA PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
O SO .

EL RESTO DEL MAR CARIBE …

NIVEL SUPERIOR anticiclnica FLUJO DE VIENTO CUBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …
EL OCANO ATLNTICO … Y EL MAR CARIBE AL NORTE DEL 10N
Al oeste de 70W .

UN OCANO ATLNTICO SUPERFICIE DEL CANAL ES LO LARGO 59W/60W DE 16N A
22N MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE 10 NUDOS O MENOS . Rainshowers SON POSIBLES
DE 17N A 21N ENTRE 58W Y 62W . Esta funcin es SOLO
FUERA DE LA ESQUINA NORESTE DEL AREA .

EL CANAL DEL MONZN es a lo largo 11N73W EN COLOMBIA … A 11N80W EN
LA ESQUINA SUROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE … ALL EN 10N86W
COSTA RICA … EN EL OCANO PACFICO ORIENTAL . CONVECTIVO
PRECIPITACIN … NUMEROSOS FUERTE DE 6N A 12N ENTRE 70W Y
81W AT 04 / 0915 UTC se ha debilitado COMPARATIVO . DISPERSADAS FUERTE
Precipitacin convectiva RESTOS DE 7N A 13N ENTRE 67W Y
85W .

EL RESTO DEL ATLNTICO …

NIVEL SUPERIOR anticiclnica FLUJO DE VIENTO CUBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO …
EL OCANO ATLNTICO … Y EL MAR CARIBE AL NORTE DEL 10N
Al oeste de 70W .

AIR COMPARATIVO SECADORA EN DEPRESION SEGN LO VISTO EN VAPOR DE AGUA
IMGENES CUBRE EL OCANO ATLNTICO QUE ES AL OESTE DE LA
27N67W CICLONICA CENTER . La excepcin es ALTO NIVEL DE HUMEDAD
Es el noroeste de la lnea que va desde 32N67W A
26N73W 23N78W A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE CUBA .

A NIVEL MEDIO A TRAVS DE NIVEL SUPERIOR PASA POR 32N45W A
28N49W Y 25N49W . AIR COMPARATIVO SECADORA EN HUNDIMIENTO DE VISTA
EN IMGENES DE VAPOR DE AGUA CUBRE EL OCANO ATLNTICO EN 250 NM
A 400 NM AL NOROESTE DE LA CANAL .

A NIVEL MEDIO DEBILITAMIENTO A TRAVS DE NIVEL SUPERIOR PASA POR
32N36W A 25N40W . Precipitacin convectiva … NUMEROSOS FUERTE
DE 21N A 23N ENTRE 36W Y 40W . BROKEN a nublado
NUBES MULTICAPA y precipitaciones persistentes POSIBLE
OTRO DE 19N A 28N ENTRE 32W Y 42W .

A RIDGE SUPERFICIE pasa por un 1021 MB CENTRO DE ALTA PRESIN
Que est cerca 31N24W A 25N31W … A 29N47W … A 32N55W … Y
NOROESTE MAS ALLA A 1022 MB CENTRO DE ALTA PRESIN QUE EST CERCA
33N66W .

POR FAVOR LEA LA ALTA MAR PRONSTICO … MIAHSFAT2 … PARA MS
DETALLES SOBRE EL PRONSTICO 48 HORAS PARA EL SURESTE DE VIENTOS DEL SUR
DE 20 A 25 NUDOS Y ALTURAS DEL MAR A 8 PIES EN EL NORTE DE 29N A
EL OESTE DE 77W .

PARA OBTENER MS INFORMACIN , VISITE
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV / MARINE

$ $
MT

High Seas Pronstico (Tropical del Atlntico ) FZNT02 TJSJ 041532
HSFAT2

ALTA MAR PRONOSTICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
1630 UTC vie 04 de octubre 2013

SEAS dan como altura significativa de ola … que es el promedio
ALTURA DE LA MS ALTA 1/3 de las olas. ONDAS individuales pueden ser
Ms del doble de altura de ola significativa .

Scurit

ATLNTICO DE 07N A 31N W DE 35W INCLUYENDO MAR CARIBE Y
GOLFO DE MEXICO

SINOPSIS VLIDO 1200 UTC Vie Oct 04.
24 HOUR 1200 UTC Pronstico vlido Sab Oct 05.
Pronstico de 48 horas vlido a las 1200 UTC Dom Oct 06.

. ADVERTENCIAS .

… AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL …

. TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN EN 25.6N 90.2W 1.003 MB a 1500 UTC 04 de octubre
MUDANZAS N -NW O 330 GRADOS A 9 KT . MXIMA sostenida del viento 45 RAFAGAS
55 KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL VIENTO 120 NM NE QUADRANT …
110 NM SE Y CUADRANTE CUADRANTE NW 60 NM . SEAS 12 pies o ms
Dentro de los 120 Nm de centro, salvo 30 NM SW CUADRANTE CON OLEAJE A 20
FT . Otro punto de 180 NM N y 90 S NM semicrculos vientos
33 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .
0.24 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE KAREN 27.7N 90.9W .
MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS RAFAGAS DE VIENTO 45 55 KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
VIENTOS EN 100 NM NE QUADRANT … 90 NM cuadrante SE … 30 NM SW
CUADRANTE … Y 50 NM NW QUADRANT . SEAS 12 pies o ms DENTRO
NM 120 E y 60 NM W semicrculos con aguas a 22 FT . EN OTRA PARTE
N DE 25N ENTRE 86W Y 93W VIENTO A 33 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .
0.48 hora Pronstico TORMENTA TROPICAL CERCA DE KAREN 29.8N 88.6W .
MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS RAFAGAS DE VIENTO 55 65 KT . FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
VIENTOS EN 100 NM NE QUADRANT … 120 NM SE CUADRANTE … 40 NM SW
Y CUADRANTE CUADRANTE NW 60 NM . SEAS 12 pies o ms DENTRO
E 150 NM y 75 NM W semicrculos con aguas a 24 FT . EN OTRA PARTE
N DE 27N de 85 a 90 VIENTOS DE 33 KT . SEAS A 12 FT .
0.72 hora Pronstico POST- TROPICAL CERCA DE KAREN EXTRATROPICAL 33.5N
83.0W . MXIMO SOSTENIDO DE VIENTO 25 RAFAGAS 35 KT .

VIENTOS DE PREDICCIN EN Y CERCA DE CICLONES TROPICALES activa debe
Usar con precaucin debido a la incertidumbre en TRAYECTORIA … TAMAO
E INTENSIDAD .

. SINOPSIS Y PRONSTICO .

. ATLC 48 hora Pronstico N DE 29N W DE 77W SE a S VIENTOS DE 20 A
25 KT . OLEAJE A 8 FT .

. RESTO DE VIENTOS AREA 20 kt o inferior . SEAS menos de 8 FT .

$ $
. PRONOSTICADOR WALLY BARNES . CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES .

FIN

US: Tropical Depression DORIAN 030900Z 28.7N 79.2W, moving N at 6 mph. Dorian regenerates into a tropical depression east of Florida (NHC) – 030813 1045z

Tropical Depression DORIAN

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

(Image: NHC) Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (Click image for source)

WTNT34 KNHC 030832
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST SAT AUG 03 2013

…DORIAN REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EAST OF FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.7N 79.2W
ABOUT 85 MI…140 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1013 MB…29.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…DORIAN
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
UNITED STATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS…FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB…29.91 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT34 TJSJ 030832
TCPAT4

BOLETN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DORIAN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST SABADO 03 de agosto 2013

DORIAN REGENERA EN UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL DEL ESTE DE FLORIDA

RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST … 0900 UTC … INFORMACIN
———————————————-
UBICACIN 28.7N 79.2W
ACERCA DE MI 85 140 KM NE de Cabo Cañaveral Florida
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 35 MPH 55 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL N O 10 GRADOS A 6 MPH … 9 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL 1013 MB 29.91 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 500 AM AST … 0900 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DORIAN
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE … LONGITUD 79.2 OESTE. LA
DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH … 9 KM / H. ESTE
MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE HOY … SEGUIDO POR UN GRADUAL
GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE EL DOMINGO. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA DORIAN
Se espera que permanezca lejos de la costa de la costa del sudeste de
ESTADOS UNIDOS.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH … 55 KM / H…WITH SUPERIOR
RAFAGAS. POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24
HORAS CON RESULTADO DE DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL EN ADELANTE.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 1013 MB 29.91 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
NINGUNO.

SIGUIENTE AVISO
————-
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA 1100 AM AST.

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART

Maritime

FZNT02 KNHC 030902
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
1030 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT AUG 03.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN AUG 04.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON AUG 05.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN NEAR 28.7N 79.2W 1013 MB AT
0900 UTC AUG 03 MOVING N OR 010 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 45 KT WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT OF DORIAN.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN N OF AREA NEAR
31.4N 76.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF 38W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN
NE SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W NE TO E WINDS 25
TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W AND 83W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

++++++++++++++++++++++++

FZNT23 KNHC 030858

OFFNT3

 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AND

CARIBBEAN SEA

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO

22N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W…THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W

INCLUDING BAHAMAS…AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

 

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE

HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE

MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

 

AMZ001-032100-

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO

19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.SYNOPSIS…FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN…WITH OCCASIONALLY WINDS TO NEAR

GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO

FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A

WEAK TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MON NIGHT AND TUE

…MOVING INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED.

 

$$

 

AMZ011-032100-

CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.TONIGHT…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.SUN…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.SUN NIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.MON…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.

.TUE…NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.

.WED…NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ013-032100-

CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.TONIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.SUN…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.SUN NIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.MON…NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E TO SE SWELL.

.TUE…NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

.WED…NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ015-032100-

CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN MIXED

NE AND SE SWELL.

.TONIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN MIXED

NE AND SE SWELL.

.SUN…NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN MIXED NE

AND SE SWELL.

.SUN NIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN MIXED

NE AND SE SWELL.

.MON…NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

.TUE…NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

.WED…E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ017-032100-

GULF OF HONDURAS-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT…BECOMING E 10 TO 15 KT

LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.TONIGHT…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.SUN…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS

AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

.SUN NIGHT…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.MON…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.TUE…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

.WED…E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ019-032100-

CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS

AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

.TONIGHT…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E TO SE SWELL.

.SUN…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E TO SE SWELL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

.SUN NIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E TO SE

SWELL.

.MON…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

.TUE…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.WED…NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E TO SE SWELL.

 

$$

 

AMZ021-032100-

CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

.TONIGHT…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E TO SE

SWELL.

.SUN…E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

.SUN NIGHT…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E TO

SE SWELL.

.MON…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

.TUE…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E TO SE SWELL.

.WED…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ023-032100-

CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

.TONIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

.SUN…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

.SUN NIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

.MON…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.TUE…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.WED…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ025-032100-

OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT…BECOMING NE TO E 10 TO 15 KT

LATE. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

.TONIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN NE

TO E SWELL.

.SUN…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN NE TO E

SWELL.

.SUN NIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.MON…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.TUE…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.WED…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ027-032100-

TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

.TONIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN NE TO E

SWELL.

.SUN…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN NE TO

E SWELL.

.SUN NIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.

.MON…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.

.TUE…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.

.WED…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ029-032100-

W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WITHIN 60 NM

OF COAST OF NICARAGUA…AND 7 TO 10 FT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED TSTMS.

.TONIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT…INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT

LATE. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN 60 NM OF COAST OF NICARAGUA…AND 8

TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED TSTMS.

.SUN…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN 60 NM OF

COAST OF NICARAGUA…AND 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL ELSEWHERE.

SCATTERED TSTMS.

.SUN NIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN

60 NM OF COAST OF NICARAGUA…AND 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL

ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED TSTMS.

.MON…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

.TUE…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

.WED…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ031-032100-

CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA

BASIN-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS

AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

.TONIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.SUN…E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS

AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

.SUN NIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.MON…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

.TUE…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

.WED…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ033-032100-

CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…E WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

.TONIGHT…E WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

.SUN…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

.SUN NIGHT…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

.MON…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.TUE…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.WED…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ035-032100-

OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT ATLC EXPOSURES…

AND 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE.

.TONIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN NE TO E

SWELL ATLC EXPOSURES…AND 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE.

.SUN…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN NE TO E SWELL ATLC

EXPOSURES…AND 2 TO 3 FT ELSEWHERE.

.SUN NIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT ATLC

EXPOSURES…AND 2 TO 3 FT ELSEWHERE.

.MON…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.TUE…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

.WED…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ037-032100-

TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT N OF 10N…

AND 4 TO 6 FT S OF 10N.

.TONIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN NE

TO E SWELL.

.SUN…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN NE TO E

SWELL.

.SUN NIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.MON…E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.

.TUE…E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.

.WED…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ039-032100-

SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…N TO NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN NE SWELL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

.TONIGHT…N TO NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT…INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT

LATE. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

TSTMS.

.SUN…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT…DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS

6 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

.SUN NIGHT…N TO NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.

SCATTERED TSTMS.

.MON…NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.

.TUE…NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.

.WED…N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN NE SWELL.

 

$$

 

AMZ101-032100-

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.SYNOPSIS…TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN NEAR 28.7N 79.2W 1013 MB AT

5 AM EDT MOVING N AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 45

KT. DORIAN WILL MOVE TO 29.9N 78.4W THIS AFTERNOON…THEN N OF THE

AREA TO 31.4N 76.0W TONIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING DEPRESSION STRENGTH.

OTHERWISE…WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH WED AS

A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH BRUSHES THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS FROM W TO E

SUN THROUGH WED.

 

$$

 

AMZ111-032100-

ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT…EXCEPT 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT

NEAR DORIAN. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT…EXCEPT 8 TO 12 FT NEAR DORIAN.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR DORIAN.

.TONIGHT…SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT…BECOMING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS

4 TO 7 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR DORIAN EARLY.

.SUN…SW TO W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS.

.SUN NIGHT…SW TO W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT…DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT

LATE. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

.MON…W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

.TUE…SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

.WED…SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ113-032100-

ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT…INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT LATE.

SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

.TONIGHT…S TO SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT…EXCEPT TO 30 KT FAR NW

CORNER NEAR DORIAN EARLY. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT…EXCEPT 7 TO 10 FT FAR

NW CORNER EARLY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR DORIAN

EARLY.

.SUN…SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS

AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

.SUN NIGHT…SW TO W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT…DIMINISHING TO 10 TO

15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS.

.MON…W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.TUE…SE TO S WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

.WED…SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ115-032100-

ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

.TONIGHT…S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

.SUN…S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

.SUN NIGHT…SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.MON…SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.TUE…S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.

.WED…SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.

 

$$

 

AMZ117-032100-

BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ATLC EXPOSURES…

AND 2 TO 3 FT ELSEWHERE.

.TONIGHT…E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT…INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT

LATE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

.SUN…SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT…DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT LATE.

SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

.SUN NIGHT…E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

.MON…E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

.TUE…E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

.WED…E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ119-032100-

ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS

AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

.TONIGHT…SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.SUN…SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT…DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT

LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.SUN NIGHT…SE TO S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.

.MON…SE TO S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.

.TUE…SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.

.WED…E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ121-032100-

ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.TONIGHT…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.SUN…E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT…BECOMING SE 5 TO 10 KT

LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.SUN NIGHT…E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL.

.MON…SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN SE SWELL.

.TUE…E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.

.WED…E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN SE SWELL.

 

$$

 

AMZ123-032100-

ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD

PASSAGE-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.TONIGHT…E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.SUN…E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT…BECOMING E 10 TO 15 KT LATE.

SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

.SUN NIGHT…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

.MON…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

.TUE…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

.WED…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ125-032100-

ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO

TRENCH-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.

.TONIGHT…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

.SUN…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.

.SUN NIGHT…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.

.MON…E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E TO SE SWELL.

.TUE…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

.WED…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

 

$$

 

AMZ127-032100-

ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W-

458 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

 

.TODAY…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN E TO SE

SWELL.

.TONIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

.SUN…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.

.SUN NIGHT…NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.

.MON…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.

.TUE…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.

.WED…E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

 

$$

 

FORECASTER LEWITSKY

 

 

US: 54 bottlenose dolphins, 112 manatees, roughly 300 pelicans died mysteriously in Florida’s Indian River Lagoon – 250713 0830z

At least 54 bottlenose dolphins have died mysteriously in Florida’s Indian River Lagoon since January.

Today, the federal government is stepping in to help find out what’s killing them. In a normal year, that number would be closer to 22.

On July 24, NOAA declared the mass die-off an “Unusual Mortality Event” – a declaration that will send federal resources and scientists to help teams already on the ground in Florida. It’s the lagoon’s worst dolphin die-off on record, and the cause is mysterious.

“This has become a national investigation, instead of a local investigation,” said Megan Stolen, a marine biologist with Hubbs-SeaWorld Research Institute, the nonprofit organization that has been investigating and keeping track of the dolphin deaths so far. “This will definitely help us.”

It’s the second time this year that NOAA has declared an Unusual Mortality Event for marine mammals in the lagoon, a 156-mile-long estuary that runs along Florida’s Atlantic coast. In April, a mass manatee die-off received the same designation. This is the third time a UME has been declared for dolphins in the lagoon. What caused the others, in 2001 and 2008, is still a mystery.

The lagoon is a treasured but troubled ecosystem, and has been besieged by a combination of nutrient run-off, pollution, and algal blooms – ingredients that have created a lethal situation for 112 manatees, roughly 300 pelicans, and 54 dolphins since last July. Scientists don’t yet know if the die-offs are linked, or if there are multiple killers on the loose in the estuary. Multiple investigations are ongoing, with teams trying to find out whether algal toxins, or pollution, or something else is to blame.

Stolen became concerned about the dolphin deaths in January. But it wasn’t until late spring that the carcasses really began to pile up; at one point, scientists were retrieving a dolphin a day from the northern and central lagoon. The die-off is affecting dolphins of all age classes and sexes. Some of the bodies are intact, others have been scavenged by sharks.

Unlike the dead manatees, which appear normal except for being dead, the dolphins are emaciated – thin and bony. But whether they’re starving because of disease, or a toxin, or a lack of food is still unknown. Clues are scarce, and only one sick dolphin has been found alive. Now, Stolen says, the die-off has slowed a bit. In July, five dolphins have been pulled from the lagoon’s brackish water.

“The last few dolphins have been calves,” she said. “Newborn babies.” It’s not clear yet whether the calves, three of them, are casualties of the mysterious scourge. But, Stolen says, “We would expect that if moms are getting hit by the UME cause, that we would start seeing dead calves as well.”

She and her colleagues will continue to monitor and respond to situation as NOAA’s team determines which direction to take the investigation in. “We are starting to look in [the dolphins’] stomachs now,” she said. “Normally when we do a necropsy, we kind of scoop everything out of their stomachs and put it in a bag. What we’ll do now is we’ll separate the liquid from the solid.” The liquids are good for toxin analyses, and the solids will tell researchers what, exactly, the dolphins have been eating – and if there are any clues to be found in their last meals.

Thursday, 25 July, 2013 at 03:31 (03:31 AM) UTC RSOE

Other Reports

Seagrass-planting project designed to restore bare spots in lagoon

Florida Today

(Photo: floridatoday.com) Seagrass transplants added to Indian River Lagoon: Seagrass is being transplanted from healthier areas of the Indian River Lagoon to areas where the grass has died out in hopes that it will come back. By Rik Jesse and Tim Walters Posted July 24, 2013

“SEBASTIAN INLET Scientists transplanted tufts of seagrass along an otherwise bald Indian River Lagoon bottom Wednesday in hopes of growing back the once-lush fish habitat that algae blooms doomed.

No one knows whether the $110,000 experiment will work or whether the cloudy waters that smothered seagrass during the past few years will return to do so again.

But researchers hope the grass transplants teach them the best ways to grow back a vital nursery habitat for fish and crabs, as well as the manatees favorite meal.

This used to be as far as you could see grass, Adam Gelber, a senior scientist with Atkins North America, said as he and two other scientists transplanted shoal grass along Sebastian Inlets interior.

At the inlet, their environmental consulting firm is planting seagrass harvested in Vero Beach. That effort ispart of a larger project that could transplant grass at up to 30 sites in the lagoon but likely fewer occupying about 1 acre of lagoon bottom. The project ranges from Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge to Titusville, to Vero Beach.

Seagrass provides prime habitat for fish, crabs and other marine life and is considered a key barometer of the estuarys overall health. Each acre of seagrass supports about 10,000 fish and $5,000 to $10,000 in economic activity in the lagoon region, according to St. Johns River Water Management District and other studies.

Transplants are just one way biologists hope to restore some 74 square miles of seagrass lost since 2009, much of it clouded out by algae.

The scientists harvest the seagrass with hand tools only no machinery and manually install the grass at the recipient study sites.

They use shoal grass, because its among the fastest growers.

They place metal manatee cages over many of the transplants to keep ravenous seacows from chomping the experiment bare. But at least one manatee was quick to find this weeks plantings among the inlets seagrass-starved shoals. After Atkins consultants planted the first tufts of grass, they returned later that day and found evidence a seacow had made a snack of their work.” - Written by Jim Waymer / floridatoday

Indian River Lagoon

Extract from wikipedia the free encyclopedia

The Indian River Lagoon is a grouping of three lagoons: Mosquito Lagoon, Banana River, and the Indian River, on the Atlantic Coast of Florida. It was originally named Rio de Ais after the Ais Indian tribe, who lived along the east coast of Florida.

Contents

Course

Its full length is 156 miles (251km), extending from Ponce de Len Inlet in Volusia County, Florida, to Jupiter Inlet in Palm Beach County, Florida,[1][2] and includes Cape Canaveral. Lake Okeechobee is connected to the lagoon by the Okeechobee Waterway and the St. Lucie River meeting in Sewall’s Point.

Aerial view of Indian River Lagoon

Portions of the Lagoon, from north to south:

Natural history

The Indian River Lagoon is North Americas most diverse estuary with more than 4,300 species of plants (2,100) and animals (2,200), including 35 that are listed as threatened or endangered more than any other estuary in North America.[3][4] The Lagoon varies in width from .5 to 5 miles (0.80 to 8.0 km) and averages 4 feet (1.2m) in depth.[3] It serves as a spawning and nursery ground for many different species of oceanic and lagoon fish and shellfish. The lagoon also has one of the most diverse bird populations anywhere in America. Nearly 1/3 of the nations manatee population lives here or migrates through the Lagoon seasonally. In addition, its ocean beaches provide one of the densest sea turtle nesting areas found in the Western Hemisphere.

Red Drum, Spotted seatrout, Common snook, and the Tarpon are the main gamefish sought by anglers in the Titusville area of the lagoon system.[5]

Dolphins

Between 200 and 800 Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) normally live in the Indian River Lagoon. The dolphins resident in the lagoon system may belong to three or more different communities. There is little exchange of individuals between the lagoon and coastal populations. However, individuals from coastal populations are occasionally seen in the lagoon. One individual from the lagoon communities, Dolphin 56, was tagged in the lagoon in 1979 and was sighted in the lagoon more than 40 times through 1996. In 1997 Dolphin 56 left the Indian River Lagoon and was spotted many times along the east coast of the United States from Florida to New York into 2011.[6][7]

Female Bottlenose dolphins in the Indian River Lagoon tend to live longer than males. The maximum age attained by both sexes is one to almost two decades less than that reached by dolphins resident in Sarasota Bay, the most thoroughly studied wild population of Bottlenose dolphins.[8]

History

In 2011, a superbloom of phytoplankton resulted in the loss of 32,000 acres (12,900ha) of lagoon seagrass. In 2012, a brown tide bloom fouled the northern lagoon. The county has approval for funds to investigate these unusual blooms to see if they can be prevented.[9]

In 2007, concerns were raised about the future of the lagoon system, especially in the southern half where frequent freshwater discharges seriously threaten water quality (decreasing the salinity needed by many fish species) and contribute to large algae blooms (water heavily saturated with plant fertilizers promote the algae blooms). The lagoon has also been the subject of research on light penetration for photosynthesis in submerged aquatic vegetation.[10] The seagrass covers over 100,000 acres (40,000ha) and is a critical component to the overall health of the lagoon.[10][11]

In 2010 3,300,000 pounds (1,500,000kg) of nitrogen and 475,000 pounds (215,000kg) of phosphorus entered the lagoon.[12]

US: Post-tropical Andrea racing NE. Gales coastal RI & southeastern MA.. 080613 0945z

Tropical Storm ANDREA

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Tropical Storm Andrea Radar (Click image for source)

(Image: NHC) Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (Click image for source)

 

(Image: NHC)Storm Surge Probabilities (Click image for source)

(Image: NHC) SPC: U.S. Tornado
Potential (Click image for source)

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013

…POST-TROPICAL ANDREA RACING NORTHEASTWARD…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…40.9N 72.5W
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM WSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM WSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH…56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR PORTIONS OF COASTAL RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…INCLUDING OTHER INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH
…56 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST SHOULD OCCUR
TODAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ANDREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST
TODAY…AND THEN ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES…370 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…POST-TROPICAL ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL UP TO 1 INCH OVER PARTS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
BRING ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO NEAR 5 INCHES OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

STORM SURGE…LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEW ENGLAND. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

WIND…WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST FROM LONG ISLAND TO ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 TODO
TTAA00 TJSJ ddhhmm

BOLETN
DESPUS DE CICLON TROPICAL ANDREA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL012013
500 AM EDT sb 08 de junio 2013

… POST-TROPICAL RACING ANDREA NORESTE …

RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM EDT … 0900 UTC … INFORMACIN
———————————————-
UBICACIN … 40.9N 72.5W
ACERCA DE MI 130 … 205 KM OSO DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ACERCA DE MI 35 … 55 KM OSO DE LA PUNTA DEL ESTE DE LONG ISLAND
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 45 MPH … 75 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … NE O 45 GRADOS A 35 MPH … 56 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 998 MB … 29.47 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

NINGUNO.

RESUMEN DE LOS RELOJES Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

GALE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES CERCA DE PARTES DE COASTAL RHODE ISLAND
Y SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS. UNA ADVERTENCIA DE VIENTO EN EFECTO
DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

PARA OBTENER MS INFORMACIN … INCLUYENDO OTROS RELOJES Y CONTINENTALES
AVISOS … FAVOR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL NACIONAL
PRONSTICO DEL TIEMPO DE SERVICIO OFICINA EN WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 500 AM EDT … 0900 UTC … EL CENTRO DE CICLON TROPICAL POST-
ANDREA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 40.9 NORTE … LONGITUD 72.5 OESTE.
EL CICLON TROPICAL POST-SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 35 MPH
… 56 KM / H. UN GIRO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE Y ESTE DEBE OCURRIR
HOY Y EL DOMINGO. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA … EL CENTRO DE ANDREA
Continuar movindose NORESTE CERCA DE LA COSTA ESTE EE.UU.
HOY … Y luego a travs de Canad atlntico HOY TARDE HASTA EL DOMINGO.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH … 75 KM / H…WITH SUPERIOR
RAFAGAS. POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.

VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS … 370 KM
AL ESTE DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MB … 29.47 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
LLUVIA … DESPUS DE ANDREA TROPICAL SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA ADICIONAL
LLUVIAS HASTA 1 pulgada sobre partes de la costa de Nueva Inglaterra. Esto le
TRAER AISLADAS CANTIDADES TOTALES DE CERCA DE 5 PULGADAS SOBRE PARTES DEL
Sur de Nueva Inglaterra.

STORM SURGE … INUNDACIONES COSTERAS LOCALIZADO ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO DE PORCIONES
DE LA COSTA ESTE DE EE.UU. LONG ISLAND DE NUEVA INGLATERRA. PARA
INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR
SU OFICINA LOCAL NACIONAL DE SERVICIO TIEMPO.

VIENTO … VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE CERCA GALE SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE PARTES DE LA
COSTA DE LONG ISLAND PARA Atlntico canadiense a domingo.

SIGUIENTE AVISO
————-
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 1100 AM EDT.

$ $
PREDICCIN DE AVILA

NNNN

Local Statements

Issuing WFO Homepage Local Statement
Wakefield, VA 1048 PM EDT FRI JUN 7
Newport/Morehead City, NC 1045 PM EDT FRI JUN 7

MARITIME

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0831

WTNT21 KNHC 080831
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
0900 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR PORTIONS OF COASTAL RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…INCLUDING OTHER INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 72.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 180SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 72.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 73.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 44.0N 67.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…180NE 240SE 180SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 46.5N 60.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…210NE 240SE 210SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 47.5N 52.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…210NE 240SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 72.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

(Image: NHC) Tropical Wave

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 0338

FZNT01 KWBC 080338
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
0430 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC JUN 08
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 09
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUN 10

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL ANDREA 38.5N75W 997 MB MOVING NE 30 KT. WITHIN
240 NM NE AND 210 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO
21 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 31N69W TO 41N51W TO 45N55W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ANDREA 45N63W 1004 MB. WITHIN 210
NM NE AND SW…AND 240 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9
TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 36N TO 49N BETWEEN 54W AND 73W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ANDREA 47N47W 1001 MB. WITHIN 240
NM OF LOW CENTER…EXCEPT 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 38N TO 49N E OF 59W WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 55N48W 1004 MB MOVING E 15 KT. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 240 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
600 NM SE QUADRANT AND 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N36W 1004 MB. WITHIN 420 NM S AND SW…
AND 360 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED E OF AREA. FROM 50N TO 56N E OF 45W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 63N39W 1010 MB DRIFTING NW. W AND N OF A LINE FROM 61N40W TO
64N35W TO THE E COAST OF GREENLAND WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH LOW
55N36W ABOVE.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 44N40W 1016 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND
540 NM W AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM WITHIN 360 NM N OF A
LINE FROM 42N50W TO 37N75W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 38N TO 46N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 180 NM OF 42N50W AND WITHIN
180 NM OF 39N73W.

.HIGH 36N43W 1034 MB MOVING SW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N48W 1033 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N49W 1030 MB.

.HIGH 43N44W 1032 MB MOVING E 20 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MOVED E OF AREA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 48N51W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH MOVED E OF AREA.

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SAT JUN 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUN 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON JUN 10.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SE SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC TROPICAL WAVE FROM 21N53W TO 14N55W. FROM 19N TO 23N
BETWEEN 52W AND 59W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
IN SE SWELL. FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W E TO SE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE FROM 24N60W TO 16N61W. WITHIN
180 NM W OF WAVE AXIS FROM 21N TO 24N E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 65W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE FROM 26N67W TO 18N68W. FROM 23N
TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SE
SWELL.

.ATLC 06 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W S OF 09N. S OF
10N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W S OF 10N. S OF 12N
BETWEEN 45W AND 52W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W S OF 11N. FROM 08N TO
15N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE
SWELL.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 73W
AND 80W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 72W AND 82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

News Reports

Tropical Storm Andrea pummels East Coast

“BOSTON (WHDH) — Soaking rains bore down on places like Peabody Friday night, thanks to an angry Andrea. Kim Santos works at a convenience store. She didnt waste any time and put down sandbags near the door of the store to prevent any flooding. She said the downpours worried her.

I just dont know if I should get ready, prepare and get the sandbags out, start boarding this place up before the water gets in, said Santos.

It may be getting close to the beginning of summer, but the scenes werent anything like that. At a carnival, it was lights out and closed thanks to the storm. The roads saw a lot of water and there was some minor flooding on the North Shore.

Its horrible. Its like floods everywhere, its ridiculous. I just cant believe it. Earlier this week I was playing softball, it was 90 degrees and now its about 50 and its torrential downpour, said Jack Sorrentino.

Everyone was moving slow, including Logan Airport where the storm slowed planes going up and down the East Coast. But many joked about it, saying only in New England could we be soaking in a sweat one week, and now have wind-swept rain and chilly conditions.

Last week I was at my friends house swimming in a pool and I just dont think, I think this is crazy. I cant believe were down here and its so cold out, said Britney Bradberry.

Emergency Management officials are keeping their eyes on the skies. The hope is they wont have to use sandbags, but theyre ready just in case.” – nbcnews.com

Hurricane statistics to know

Tropical Storm Andrea zipping up the East Coast

West Palm Beach, FL (Photo: wptv.com) (Click photo for link to story & video)

JENNIFER KAY | June 7, 2013 04:57 AM EST | AP  huffingtonpost.com

MIAMI — After bringing rains, heavy winds and even tornadoes to parts of Florida, Tropical Storm Andrea was moving quickly toward the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas early Friday, promising sloppy commutes and waterlogged vacation getaways through the beginning of the weekend.

The first named storm of the Atlantic season was losing some intensity late Thursday and by early Friday, its winds were down to 45 mph (75 kph).

Ben Nelson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Jacksonville, said Andrea was moving at a pretty brisk pace and could lose its tropical characteristics as early as Friday morning.

However, forecasters warned it could cause isolated flooding and storm surge over the next two days.

Heavy rains were continuing well away from the storms center. The weather service in Charleston, S.C., advised of an enhanced coastal flooding threat near the high tide Friday morning, as well as of possible tornadoes. Rain bands could bring wind gusts in excess of 40 mph or 50 mph, the weather service said.

Early Friday, tropical storm warnings remained in effect for the East Coast from Altamaha Sound in Georgia to Cape Charles Light in Virginia, the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds and the lower Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort. A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere inside the warning area within a day and a half.

As of 5 a.m. EDT Friday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Andrea was about 30 miles (50 kilometers) northeast of Savannah, Ga., having made landfall a day earlier in Floridas Big Bend area. Andrea was moving northeast near 28 mph (44 kph).

Rains and winds from the storm were forecast to sweep northward along the Southeastern U.S. coast Friday.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott had warned of the risk of tornadoes, and officials said that eight were confirmed across the state.

This one fortunately is a fast-moving storm, he said Thursday. Slower-moving storms can pose a greater flood risk because they have more time to linger and dump rain.

In The Acreage, a part of Palm Beach County, Fla., pre-kindergarten teacher Maria Cristina Arias choked back tears and clutched valuable personal papers as she surveyed the damage done by a tornado to her five-bedroom home when she was away. Windows were smashed and a neighbors shed had crashed into her bedroom.

Its all destroyed, she told The Palm Beach Post. This is unbelievable. I dont know what were going to do.

Her 19-year-old son, Christian, was sleeping when he heard a loud noise.

It was really scary, said the teen, who wasnt hurt. It sounded like something exploded. I didnt know what was going on.

Meanwhile, south Georgia residents were bracing for high winds and heavy rains that could lead to flooding.

On Cumberland Island off the Georgia cost, the National Park Service was evacuating campers as the storm approached Thursday.

My main concern is the winds, said chief park ranger Bridget Bohnet. Were subject to trees falling and limbs breaking, and I dont want anybody getting hurt.

Forecasters were predicting the storm would pass through Georgia overnight, and the island would likely re-open to tourists Friday.

It looks like its picking up speed and thats a good thing because it wont sit and rain on us so long, said Jan Chamberlain, whose family runs the Blue Heron Inn Bed & Breakfast near the Sapelo Island Ferry station on Georgias coast, on Thursday.

In the Carolinas, Andreas biggest threat was heavy rain, with as much as 6 inches expected, the weather service said.

Forecasters didnt expect major problems, however, along the most vulnerable parts of the coast such as the Outer Banks, a popular tourist destination.

John Elardo, a meteorologist with the weather service in Newport, N.C., said the storm would push major waves to the north and northeast, away from the Outer Banks, where storms in the fall and winter wore away dunes and washed out portions of N.C. Highway 12, the only road connecting the barrier island to the mainland of North Carolina.

Andrea could bring up to a foot of flooding on the sound side of the Outer Banks, Elardo said.

The rain threatened to ruin a beach day for Angela Hursh, 41, of Cincinnati, who had rented a house in Frisco, N.C. Hursh was planning Friday to soak in the hot tub and watch movies with her 9-year-old and 13-year-old daughters.

I think were just going to hunker down and eat junk food, Hursh said Thursday.

Doug Brindley, who owns a vacation lodging rental service on the northern end of the Outer Banks near Virginia, said Thursday he expects all outdoor activities to be washed out Friday, driving tens of thousands of early-summer vacationers toward unexpected shopping sprees.

Were going to have rain and wind, said Brindley, who owns Brindley Beach Vacations and Sales. Retailers are going to love it.

In Cuba, heavy rains associated with the storm system have soaked the western part of the island for the past several days, overflowing rivers and damaging crops. At least 30 towns were cut off by flooding, and more than 2,600 people sought refuge from the rising waters at relatives homes or state-run shelters, the Communist Party newspaper Granma reported Thursday.

___

Contributing to this report were Associated Press writers Jeff Martin in Atlanta; Russ Bynum in Savannah, Ga.; Gary Fineout and Brent Kallestad in Tallahassee, Fla.; Peter Orsi in Havana; and Emery P. Dalesio in Raleigh, N.C.

Gulf of Mexico: Low Pressure Area (Invest 91L) Tropical Cylone Formation Alert (Fleet Weather Center Norfolk) – 050613 1400z

Invest 91L upgraded to Tropical Storm Andrea

Go here: http://wp.me/p2k2mU-1Vr

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image Invest 91L (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) NEXRAD Radar Map (Click image for source)

Invest 91L Opens in Google Earth kml icon

Tropical Cylone Formation Alert (Fleet Weather Center Norfolk)

WTNT KAGU 051500

051200Z POSITION: NEAR 24.1N 88.8W

MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS

Alerta de Formacin Cylone Tropical (Fleet Center Tiempo Norfolk)

WTNT KaGu 051500

POSICIN 051200Z: CERCA 24.1N 88.8W

Movindose hacia el nortenoreste a 05 NUDOS

(Image: nrlmry.navy.mil) US Navy Tropical Cylone Formation Alert

(Image: nrlmry.navy.mil) 91L.INVEST, VIS, 05 JUN 2013 1715Z

National Hurricane Center

(Image: NHC) Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup Invest 91L

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTICCARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO

1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY
DEFINEDHOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENTTHERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE60 PERCENTOF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENTADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEAND IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERETROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

Spanish:

1.ZCZC MIATWOAT TODO
TTAA00 TJSJ ddhhmm

PERSPECTIVA DE TIEMPO TROPICAL
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 05 de junio 2013

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE EL ​​MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO

1. UN AREA AMPLIA Y ELONGATED DE BAJA PRESION SOBRE EL GOLFO DE CENTRAL
MEXICO CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA AMPLIA DE TORMENTAS Y VIENTOS
A CERCA DE GALE FORCE SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. SATLITE
Y los datos de superficie sugieren que el CIRCULACIN sigue siendo poco
DEFINE SIN EMBARGO UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES
PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR LA ALTERACIN ESTA TARDE. AUNQUE
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES NO SON FAVORABLES PARA SIGNIFICATIVO
DESARROLLO HAY POSIBILIDAD DE ESTE SISTEMA PARA SER
DEPRESIN O TORMENTA ANTES DE QUE SE MUEVE A TRAVS DEL NORTE TROPICAL
FLORIDA TARDE Jueves O JUEVES EN LA NOCHE. ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UN ALTO
OPORTUNIDAD 60 POR CIENTO DE CONVERTIRSE EN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LA
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

ESTE SISTEMA YA HA PRODUCIDO lluvias torrenciales e inundaciones
SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTE Y OESTE DE CUBA. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE
DE DESARROLLO FUERTES LLUVIAS ADICIONALES Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS SON
Espera que ms de los Cayos de Florida Y LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE
EL PAR DE DIAS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES SOBRE TAMBIN
LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE HASTA EL JUEVES. ADICIONAL
INFORMACIN SOBRE ESTE SISTEMA Y SUS EFECTOS SE PUEDE ENCONTRAR EN ALTA
OLEAJE DE PREVISIONES EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA Y EN
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO METEOROLGICO O
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

EN OTRA PARTE FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL NO SE ESPERA DURANTE EL
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

&&

PRONOSTICOS DE OLEAJE ALTO EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA PUEDEN SER
ENCUENTRA BAJO AWIPS NFDHSFAT1 Y OMM FZNT01 KWBC.

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CUBA

(Image: met.inf.cu) Cuba Radar (Click image for source)

Weather Outlook.
Forecast Center, INSMET.
Date: June 4, 2013. Time: 9:00 pm

According to the meteorological station network INSMET in the last 12 hours heavy rain occurred in Pinar del Río in some localities as Isabel Rubio which recorded 128 mm, in St. Lucia with 89 mm and San Juan y Martinez 69 mm.

This situation is associated with the presence of a low pressure area is observed north of the Yucatán Peninsula, it remains cloudy and rain over the western Caribbean Sea, the Straits of Florida and western Cuba. During the next 24 to 48 hours this system will move slowly north and has an average probability of becoming a tropical cyclone.

For the next hour continued high probability of rain in the west of the country, mainly in Pinar del Rio, where they could become locally heavy.

Perspectivas del Tiempo
Perspectivas del Tiempo.
Centro de Pronsticos, INSMET.
Fecha: 4 de junio de 2013. Hora: 9:00 p.m.

Segn la red de estaciones meteorolgicas del INSMET, en las ltimas 12 horas ocurrieron lluvias intensas en Pinar del Ro en algunas localidades como Isabel Rubio donde se registraron 128 mm, en Santa Luca con 89 mm y en San Juan y Martnez 69 mm.

Esta situacin se encuentra asociada a la presencia de un rea de bajas presiones que se observa al norte de la pennsula de Yucatn, la misma mantiene nublados y lluvias sobre el mar Caribe occidental, el estrecho de la Florida y el occidente de Cuba. Durante las prximas 24 a 48 horas este sistema se va a desplazar lentamente al norte y tiene una probabilidad media de convertirse en cicln tropical.

Para las prximas horas contina alta la probabilidad de lluvias en el occidente del pas, principalmente en Pinar del Ro, donde pudieran llegar a ser localmente intensas.

Underage Teen Sex: Is a Girl Being Prosecuted for Being Gay?

Health & Family

Teen romance is tough enough when you’re not accused of breaking the law.

But that’s exactly the predicament Kaitlyn Hunt, a high school senior from Sebastian, Fla., finds herself in. Hunt, 18, was arrested Feb. 16 for dating her girlfriend, who was 14 when the alleged crime was committed. She’s charged with lewd and lascivious battery on a victim aged 12 to 16 by a person over the age of 18, a second-degree felony that carries a possible prison term of 15 years per count.

The case has generated a good bit of Internet buzz for understandable reasons. There’s sex involved — and underage, lesbian sex at that — along with loud cries of injustice from the family of Kaitlyn Hunt.

Whether or not the charges are fueled by homophobia, of course, is difficult to prove. That may be why gay rights organizations are keeping their distance. In what appears to…

View original post 668 more words

US: Small plane crashed into Florida home, kills 3 aboard, woman occupier dived through glass window and survives injured – 050113 1325z

A small plane crashed into a home in eastern Florida on Friday, killing all three people aboard, the Florida Highway Patrol said. It happened at 2:22 p.m., 12 minutes after the pilot declared an emergency, saying the plane was severely shaking, the highway patrol said.

A middle-aged woman who lived alone in the house dived through a closed window to get out after the plane hit, neighbor Joe McBride, 71, said. The highway patrol said she was taken to the hospital, but they did not have details on her injuries.

“She went right through the glass window,” McBride said. “She’s banged up, but she’s going to be all right.” He added, “She’s lucky to be alive because that house is a wreck.”

The Beechcraft BE35 was en route to Knoxville Downtown Island Airport in Tennessee, said Kathleen Bergen, a spokeswoman for the Federal Aviation Administration in Atlanta. It wasn’t immediately known from where the plane originated.

The plane was diverting to Flagler County Airport, near the coast about 30 miles north of Daytona Beach, when it crashed a mile east of the airport, Bergen said.

Video from CNN affiliate Central Florida News 13 showed white smoke rising from a large, black hole in the one-story house, which is surrounded by trees. Parts of the roof were melted away.

“Because of the steepness of the trees in the area, the tall pine trees, it looks like it was a pretty steep descent and it went right into the roof,” Lt. Justin Asbury of the highway patrol said.

McBride said he was looking outside when the plane passed low overhead not more than 40 feet in the air, he estimated. “I could look into it, almost,” he said.

The plane was making an odd sound as it passed overhead, as if it was stalling, he said. “It sounded like the engine wasn’t running right at all.” The plane took down all the utility wires on the street, which is in a rural residential area with many retirees. He said it appeared the plane was going in the general direction of the airport, but not directly toward it.

Saturday, 05 January, 2013 at 04:28 (04:28 AM) UTC RSOE

Update:

Authorities say at least three people are dead after a small plane crashed into a house while trying to land at a central Florida airport.

The Florida Highway Patrol confirmed the deaths Friday afternoon.

The Federal Aviation Administration says the pilot reported mechanical problems shortly after 2 p.m. Friday.

The Beechcraft BE35, which had three people onboard, had been heading to Downtown Island Airport in Knoxville, Tenn., but diverted to the Flagler County Airport. FAA officials didn’t immediately know where the plane took off.

The Flagler County Sheriff’s Office reports that the plane hit a Palm Coast home just east of the airport a few minutes after the pilot’s call. The house caught fire, but the home’s owner was taken to a nearby hospital in stable condition.

Saturday, 05 January, 2013 at 05:14 UTC RSOE

Pilot reported engine, oil pressure problems before crash

CNN affiliate Central Florida News 13

“PALM COAST –

Newly-released radio transmissions show the pilot of a small plane reported engine and oil pressure problems before crashing into a Flagler County home, killing all three on board.

Pilot: Daytona, this is 3-7-5. We got a, we got a vibration in the prop. I need some help here.

Tower: 3-7-Bravo-Roger the closest airport is, ah, 12 oclock. 12 to 1 oclock in 5 miles and uh, are you I-F-R capable and equipped?

Pilot: Yeah, Im I-F-R. Im just- we got a little bit of vibration and we got oil pressure problems- were going to have to drop quickly here.

Federal aviation investigators said air traffic controllers were diverting the plane to the Flagler County Airport after the pilot expressed some trouble with the airplane and lost contact with him about 20 minutes after he radioed for help.

The plane crashed into a home on Utica Path around 2 p.m. Friday.

Neighbors said they heard a loud boom and it looked like the plane took a nose dive straight into the house.

Susan Crockett was inside when the plane went down, but she narrowly escaped through a window.

She was taken to Flagler Hospital Flagler where she is in stable condition.

Crockett’s daughter, Jessica, said God saved her mother.

“It’s nothing but God. The fact that my mom survived. The fact that she was able to get out. My mom is a strong woman and she, nothing will shake her because she has faith in God,” Jessica said.

The Florida Highway Patrol said the plane was headed from Ft. Pierce, FL to Downtown Island Airport in Knoxville, Tenn.

Three people on board the plane were killed instantly. Their identities have not yet been released.

Utica Path remains closed to all traffic.

The National Transportation Safety Board and Flagler County Sheriffs Office are investigating the crash.

Preliminary Report from Florida Highway Patrol

The Florida Highway Patrol is currently conducting a preliminary plane crash investigation while awaiting the arrival of the FAA and NTSB. There are three deceased at the scene. Preliminary information indicates that the plane was traveling from Ft. Pierce, FL to Knoxville, TN. The aircraft was registered out of the British Virgin Islands.

The pilot reported having engine trouble, saw smoke, and then entered an area of bad weather. Shortly thereafter, the 911 calls began at the Flagler County Sheriff’s Office regarding a plane crashing into a house at 22 Utica Path, in the Seminole Woods Subdivision of Palm Coast.

Only portions of the wing remained and it appears the plane made a steep decent prior to entering the roof of the home.

A fire ensued and consumed the remainder of the plane and a great portion of the house. One resident of the home, Susan Crockett, in her bedroom at the time of the crash, had to escape through the window. She has been treated at a local hospital and has been released.

FAA and NTSB are expected at the scene this evening and will again be on scene tomorrow. Any questions information regarding the cause of the crash should be asked of these entities following their arrival.” – CNN affiliate Central Florida News 13

Download video here: http://static.cfnews13.com/newsvideo/cfn/Palm-Coast-crash-0105.flv

Remnants of #Sandy continue to weaken over Pennsylvania – 311012 1300Z

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Five Day Forecast Map
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com)
Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

US NWS Long Range Radar

WNYC interactive map (updates with the latest forecast of the storm’s path, based on data from the National Hurricane Center) (link)

NWS radar Loop from Pittsburgh, PA
(Click image for source)

NWS radar Loop from State College, PA
(Click image for source)

NWS radar Loop from Northern Indiana
(Click image for source)

NWS radar Loop from Cleveland, OH
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Caribou, ME Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Portland, ME Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Boston, MA Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Upton, NY Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Mt. Holly, NJ Radar
Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Dover Air Force Base, DE Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Newport/Morehead, NC Radar Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS NOAA)
Wilmington, NC Radar
Long Range Base Reflectivity
(Click image for source)

Fernanda Viégas and Martin Wattenberg, data visualization experts at Google, have created a dynamic map infographic that animates the current wind patterns across the U.S. It was launched as a personal project a few months ago, but it’s especially useful in a situation like this.

(Image: poynter.org)
Click image to see the live wind map in action
(Use official sources for wind information when it matters)

New York

(Photo : GIS.NYC.GOV)
NYC Hurricane Evacuation Zone & Shelters
(Click image for large interactive map

MSNBC reports Post-tropical Storm #Sandy Center just made landfall near Atlantic City New Jersey

Sandy Makes Landfall

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy made landfall at 8pm ET on October 29, 2012 about 5 miles southwest of Atlantic City, NJ, as seen in this NOAA GOES-13 satellite colorized infrared image from the same time. Official projections from the National Hurricane Center have the storm moving westward through Pennsylvania and then moving north into New York. The change in designation from hurricane to post-tropical cyclone is due to a continued deterioration of the convective center of the system, characteristic of tropical cyclones and hurricanes. However, Sandy is just as dangerous – sustained 80 mph winds along with heavy rainfall, surge, and coastal and inland flooding are expected as this storm continues to move inland.

What to do after a hurricane (ready.gov)

Let family members know you’re ok during times of disaster Red Cross Safe & Well site (link)

American Red Cross hurricane preparedness page

US: FIND RED CROSS SHELTER (Nationwide) http://t.co/a7ocPSPO

9,000 people spent Tuesday (30 Oct) night in 171 Red Cross shelters in 13 states. You can help: here

Red Cross Hurricane App – Get it here:

rdcrss.org/MZR7Bg  http://lockerz.com/s/230306748

Virginia Hurricane Shelters updated

Google crisis response:

Map with power outages, shelters, weather and more
State info: CT · DE · MA · MD · ME · NC · NH · NJ · NY · PA · VA · VT
NYC info: nyc.gov Evacuation Zone Finder Notify NYC alerts Transit

31 Oct 2012 New York City: Limited subway service restored starting at 2PM Follow https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo for specific line updates

Gov Cuomo: CORRECTION: Subways will be starting tomorrow morning, not 2PM today

American Red Cross need IMMEDIATE BLOOD & PLATELET donations to help those affected by Hurricane Sandy. http://www.redcrossblood.org/sandy

American Red Cross Blood Locations

United States:

WTNT33 KWNH 310902
TCPAT3

REMNANTS OF SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL182012
0500 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

…REMNANTS OF SANDY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER PENNSYLVANIA…

SUMMARY OF 0500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
ALONG MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS.

FLOOD AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES…WARNINGS…AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA…WESTERN
MARYLAND…WEST VIRGINIA…EASTERN TENNESSEE…EASTERN
KENTUCKY…AND EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING WATCHES AND
WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 0500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR THE REMNANTS OF SANDY.  SANDY HAS WEAKENED INTO A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

HAZARDS
——-
WIND…STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES.

STORM SURGE…ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ALONG
THE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE DAY.  IN
PORTIONS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY…NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST
COULD STILL BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS AROUND THE TIME OF THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND:

UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY…1 TO 2 FEET.

FRESHWATER FLOOD WATERS ORIGINATING IN THE UPPER POTOMAC FROM THE
RAINS OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TIDAL
POTOMAC…RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

DUE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS…COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES IS POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL…ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ALSO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL…ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO FAR WESTERN
MARYLAND AND SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RAINFALL TOTALS
—————
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 04 AM EDT

…WASHINGTON DC…
WASHINGTON 5.1 NW                    5.83
WASHINGTON/NATIONAL                  4.84

…DELAWARE…
GEORGETOWN                          10.20
DOVER 6.4 WNW                        9.62
MILFORD                              9.55
INDIAN RIVER ACRES                   9.49
REHOBOTH BEACH                       9.37
CLAYTON 6.6 W                        8.62
DOVER AFB                            8.47
DELANEY CORNER                       8.33
MILTON                               8.30
SMYRNA 2.7 SSE                       8.30
SEAFORD 2.3 SSE                      8.27
FELTON 3.6 NE                        8.00
DOVER                                7.98
VIOLA                                7.84
GEORGETOWN 5.8 W                     7.76

…MASSACHUSETTS…
FITCHBURG                            3.85
NORTH ASHBURNHAM                     3.70
PEPPERELL                            3.30
ASHBURNHAM                           3.20
AYER                                 3.11
EAST MILTON                          3.03
LEOMINSTER 1.5 S                     2.92
NATICK 1.7 NNE                       2.85
NORTON 1.8 NNE                       2.80
ACTON 1.3 SW                         2.76
BEDFORD/HANSCOM FIELD                2.40
MILLIS 0.6 SSE                       2.65
NORTHBOROUGH 0.6 SSE                 2.60
NORWOOD 1.3 NW                       2.59

…MARYLAND…
EASTON 0.7 NNW                      12.55
1 NNW EASTON                        12.49
GREENSBORO 1.4 ENE                  10.53
QUEENSTOWN 2.6 S                     9.89
TRAPPE 3.5 NE                        9.78
BISHOPVILLE 3.1 E                    9.48
DENTON 5.8 WSW                       9.18
PRINCESS ANNE 4.4 WSW                8.81
PASADENA 2.6 ESE                     8.60
PATUXENT RIVER NAS                   8.32
LA PLATA 5.8 SE                      8.23
SALISBURY RGNL ARPT                  7.55
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT                 7.22
BALIMORE SCIENCE CENTER              7.18
ANNAPOLIS – US NAVAL ACADEMY         7.09
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL ARPT       6.67

…NORTH CAROLINA…
SALVO 0.9 NNE                        8.09
AVON 0.7 NE                          8.00
COROLLA 3.2 SSE                      7.66
DUCK 0.3 SE                          7.22
KILL DEVIL HILLS 2.5 NNW             6.47
HATTERAS/BILLY MITCHELL AP           6.26
COROLLA 11.7 NNW                     5.90
KITTY HAWK 4.0 NNW                   5.89
TRENT WOODS 1.3 SSE                  4.11
JAMESVILLE 6.1 SW                    3.84
JACKSONVILLE 2.0 E                   3.75
HOLLY RIDGE 4.8 ENE                  3.63
ELIZABETH CITY 10.5 NNW              3.56
MERRY HILL 3.8 E                     3.51

…NEW HAMPSHIRE…
GORHAM 3.1 S                         4.85
JAFFREY MUNI ARPT                    4.78
CENTER SANDWICH 4.9 E                4.57
RANDOLPH 1.4 NE                      4.51
MT WASHINGTON                        4.05
NEWBURY 1.6 NW                       4.00
NASHUA                               3.53
EFFINGHAM 0.9 NNW                    3.35
NEWBURY 4.0 SE                       3.07
HILLSBOROUGH 2.1 NNW                 3.00
BROOKLINE 2.1 SW                     3.00
MADISON 1.7 SE                       2.99
GREENVILLE 1.1 ENE                   2.96
BROOKFIELD 0.9 WSW                   2.91
PETERBOROUGH                         2.98

…NEW JERSEY…
WILDWOOD CREST 0.6 NNE              11.91
GREEN CREEK                         11.40
NORTH WILDWOOD                      10.24
SEAVILLE                            10.06
RIO GRANDE                           9.51
WEST CAPE MAY                        9.37
LOWER TWP 2.2 NE                     8.41
ERMA                                 8.20
ATLANTIC CITY                        8.15
CAPE MAY                             8.10
WOODBINE 0.8 NNW                     7.84
UPPER TWP 3.2 SE                     7.75
HAMILTON TWP 2.1 SE                  7.56
NEWPORT                              7.30
CAPE MAY 0.4 NNW                     7.28
VINELAND 2.6 WSW                     7.07
ESTELL MANOR                         7.06
CEDARVILLE                           7.00

…NEW YORK…
WHITESVILLE                          4.83
1 S HAMBURG                          4.59
PERRYSBURG                           4.41
1 SW DUNKIRK                         4.09
BATAVIA GENESSEE                     3.80
3 ENE LOCKPORT                       3.63
SHERMAN 0.4 ENE                      3.42
NIAGARA FALLS INTL ARPT              3.27
LOCKPORT 2.8 ENE                     3.31
LANCASTER 4.1 ENE                    3.26
ALCOTT CENTER                        3.25
ELMA CENTER 0.7 SE                   3.06
DANSVILLE 1.0 ENE                    3.06
LOCKPORT 0.8 NE                      3.05
WEST ALMOND 3.6 SW                   3.04

…OHIO…
KIRTLAND 0.9 SW                      5.69
CLEVELAND HOPKINS AIRPORT            5.14
MAYFIELD 0.2 NW                      5.10
NORTH RIDGEVILLE 2.8 SSW             5.06
PAINESVILLE 3.8 SSW                  5.02
LORAIN/ELYRIA                        4.98
ASHTABULA CO. ARPT                   4.83
ELYRIA 3.0 SE                        4.77
CLEVELAND-HOPKINS INTL ARPT          4.56
BROADVIEW HEIGHTS 1.5 NW             4.44
AVON 1.6 SW                          4.14
BRUNSWICK 0.5 NE                     4.08
PARMA 1.9 NNW                        3.96
RICHMOND HEIGHTS 0.4 NNE             3.88
WAKEMAN 4.6 NNE                      3.77
ELYRIA 0.4 SE                        3.70

…PENNSYLVANIA…
HANOVER 5.4 S                        7.61
SCHELLSBURG 2.6 WNW                  7.32
GLEN ROCK 2.2 ESE                    6.54
MALVERN 0.5 NNE                      6.32
LANDENBERG 1.8 ENE                   5.96
NEW SALEM 0.3 WSW                    5.92
2 ENE LANDEBERG                      5.90
LITTLESTOWN 3.7 WNW                  5.84
WEST CHESTER                         5.78
LATROBE 0.6 NW                       5.76
EXTON                                5.59
WEST CHESTER 1.8 SE                  5.54
HANOVER 3.0 WSW                      5.51
ABBOTTSTOWN 2.4 N                    5.43

…RHODE ISLAND…
PAWTUCKET/NORTH CENTRAL ST ARPT      2.71
WOONSOCKET 1.3 ESE                   1.87
MANVILLE 0.2 NE                      1.76

…VIRGINIA…
REEDVILLE                            9.90
VIRGINIA BEACH                       9.58
OCEANA NAS/SOUCEK                    9.57
CASHVILLE .01 S                      9.38
WHITE STONE 8.0 SSW                  8.96
GREENBACKVILLE 0.4 WNW               8.64
PORT HAYWOOD 1.0 SE                  8.59
ONLEY 0.6 SE                         8.47
WALLOPS ISLAND                       8.48
ONANCOCK 3.9 SW                      8.39
VIRGINIA BEACH 1.7 NE                7.99
PURCELLVILLE                         7.89
5 S MAYSVILLE                        7.75
YORKTOWN 0.8 SE                      7.73
NEWPORT NEWS 5.8 NE                  7.63

…WEST VIRGINIA…
SHENANDOAH JUNCTION                  4.46
FALLING WATERS 2.4 NW                4.36
SLANESVILLE 2.1 SE                   3.99
MORGANTOWN/HART FIELD                3.67
MCMECHEN 6.0 E                       3.56
CHARLES TOWN 2.5 NE                  3.15
BUNKER HILL 0.8 WNW                  3.06
SPRINGFIELD 2.3 ESE                  3.04
HUNTINGTON                           2.88
BOOTHSVILLE 1.4 SE                   2.83

SNOWFALL TOTALS
—————
SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 04 AM EDT

..KENTUCKY…
PAYNE GAP                            14.0
LYNCH 3S                             12.0
ELKO 1NW                              9.0
BENHAM 3S                             6.0
VIPER                                 6.0

…MARYLAND…
REDHOUSE                             29.0
FINZEL                               24.0
OAKLAND                              24.0
DEEP CREEK LAKE                      20.0
4 SE CHAMPOIN                        13.0
GRANTSVILLE                          12.0
FROSTBURG                             6.0

…NORTH CAROLINA…
COVE CREEK 10NW                      24.0
FAUST                                24.0
NEWFOUND GAP                         22.0
ELK PARK                             14.0
BULADEAN                             12.0
BAKERSVILLE 5N                       11.0
BEECH MOUNTAIN 1 SE                  10.0
FLAT SPRINGS                          9.8
ASHLAND                               9.0
LANSING                               8.0
FLAT SPRINGS 1E                       7.0

…OHIO…
BELLEFONTAINE                         4.5
BELLEFONTAINE 2N                      3.0
WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE                3.0
MANSFIELD                             2.5

…PENNSYLVANIA…
CHAMPION 4SE                         13.0
LAUREL SUMMIT                        10.0
MOUNT DAVIS                           9.0
FARMINGTON                            8.8
LAUREL SUMMIT                         9.6

…TENNESSEE…
GATLINBURG 7SE                       22.0
ROAN MOUNTAIN                        19.0
NEWFOUND GAP                         18.0
MOUNT LECONTE                        17.0

…VIRGINIA…
NORTON 2S                            24.0
TAZEWELL 2N                          15.0
WISE 6E                              14.0
LEBANON                              12.0
BURKES GARDEN                         8.4
RICHLANDS                             8.0
HONAKER                               8.0
MOUTH OF WILSON                       8.0

…WEST VIRGINIA…
5 WSW HUTTONSVILLE                   28.0
DAVIS                                28.0
FLAT TOP                             28.0
CRAIGSVILLE                          26.0
ALEXANDER                            24.0
QUINWOOD                             24.0
NETTIE                               24.0
TERRA ALTA                           24.0
KITZMILLER                           24.0
BEVERLY                              21.0
BAYARD                               21.5
HUTTONSVILLE                         18.0
BEAVER                               18.0
1 E MACARTHUR                        18.0
WEBSTER SPINGS                       17.0
FAYETTEVILLE 11E                     15.0
ELKINS                               14.0

WIND GUSTS
———–
SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENT

…CONNECTICUT…
MADISON                                85
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT                     76
GROTON                                 76
GREENWICH                              70

…MAINE…
BATH                                   76
PORTLAND JETPORT                       63
KENNEBUNK 2NE                          62

…MARYLAND…
LAYTONSVILLE 1ESE                      76
OCEAN CITY                             74
CROCHERON 2SSE                         70
ANNAPOLIS                              69
ARBUTUS                                68
FREDRICK 1NE                           62

…MASSACHUSETTS…
CUTTYHUNK                              83
WELLFLEET                              81
BARNSTABLE                             79
WRENTHAM                               77

…MICHIGAN…
FORT GRATIOT                           74
TOLEDO HARBOR                          66
PORT SANILAC                           65
SOUTH BASS ISLAND                      63
SOUTH HAVEN 1W                         60

…NEW HAMPSHIRE…
GOSHEN                                 70
LONDONDERRY                            62
PORTSMOUTH INTL AIRP                   60

…NEW JERSEY…
TOMPKINSVILLE 2N                       90
SURF CITY                              89
TUCKERTON                              88
MONTCLAIR 1N                           88
NEWPORT                                87
SANDY HOOK NOS BUOY                    87
DENNISVILLE                            81
CLIFTON                                80
NEWARK                                 78
ATLANTIC CITY                          77
BAYONNE 1ENE                           77

…NEW YORK…
ISLIP                                  90
PLUM ISLAND 4 ENE                      85
SYOSSET                                82
POINT LOOKOUT 1E                       80
JFK                                    79

..OHIO…
BURKE LAKEFRONT ARPT                   67
CLEVELAND HOPKINS ARPT                 63
SOUTH BASS ISLAND                      62

…PENNSYLVANIA…
ALLENTOWN                              81
BENSALEM                               76
BUSHKILL CENTER                        70
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT                 68
MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT                   66
MOUNT AETNA                            64
WIND GAP                               62

…RHODE ISLAND…
WESTERLY                               86
WARREN                                 73

…VERMONT…
STOWE 8NW                              72
LYNDON CENTER                          61
UNDERHILL                              60

…VIRGINIA…
CHESTER GAP 3NNE                       79
WINTERGREEN 4 NW                       72
WALLOPS ISLAND                         68
MELFA/ACCOMACK ARPT                    62
HACKSHECK 1NW                          60

…WEST VIRGINIA…
RANSON 1 NNW                           65
KEYSER 2 SSW                           64
MARTINSBURG ARPT                       60

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT.  PLEASE REFER TO YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
THIS STORM.

PETERSEN/ORRISON/TERRY

FORECAST POSITIONS
——————
INITIAL 31/0900Z  NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION

$$

Spanish:

WTNT33 KWNH 310902
TCPSP3

LOS RESTOS DEL NÚMERO 36 DE ASESORAMIENTO SANDY
NWS Centro de Predicción Hidrometeorológica College Park MD AL182012
0500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 31 de octubre 2012

REMANENTES DE SANDY … continuará debilitándose en Pensilvania …

RESUMEN DE LAS 0500 AM EDT … 0900 UTC … INFORMACIÓN
———————————————–
UBICACIÓN … NO circulación superficial perceptible

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

Avisos de temporal y avisos de artesanía son EN EFECTO PARA
PARTES DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS. ADVERTENCIAS DE EMBARCACIONES PEQUENAS EN EFECTO
A LO LARGO DE LA MAYOR PARTE DEL MID-ATLANTIC Y COSTAS DEL NORESTE.

RELOJES DE INUNDACIONES COSTERAS Y DE INUNDACIONES … AVISOS … Y advertencia se encuentre en
EFECTO SOBRE PARTES DEL MID-ATLANTIC Y DEL NORESTE.

AVISOS DE TORMENTA DE INVIERNO Y ADVERTENCIAS DE INVIERNO DEL TIEMPO RESTANTE EN
EFECTO DE LAS MONTAÑAS DEL SUROESTE DE PENNSYLVANIA OCCIDENTAL …
MARYLAND … WEST VIRGINIA … ESTE TENNESSEE ORIENTAL …
KENTUCKY … Y EXTREMA WESTERN CAROLINA DEL NORTE.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … INCLUYENDO LOS RELOJES Y
AVISOS … FAVOR DE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU LOCAL NACIONAL
TIEMPO DE LA OFICINA DE SERVICIO AL WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A las 0500 AM EDT … 0900 UTC … no había SUPERFICIE discernible
CIRCULACIÓN DE LOS REMANENTES DE SANDY. SANDY ha debilitado en una
SUPERFICIE VAGUADA DE BAJA PRESION SOBRE oeste de Pensilvania.

PELIGROS
——-
VIENTO … VIENTOS FUERTES continuará hasta el miércoles por la MAÑANA
PARTES DEL NORESTE Y los Grandes Lagos.

MAREJADA … Los niveles elevados de agua seguirá DISMINUYENDO A LO LARGO
LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DURANTE EL DÍA. EN
PARTES DE CHESAPEAKE BAY … Normalmente las zonas secas CERCA DE LA COSTA
Todavía podría ser inundada por las crecidas en la época de LA
Siguiente pleamar. El agua podría llegar a las profundidades SIGUIENTES ANTERIORES
BAJA:

Alto y Medio CHESAPEAKE BAY … 1 A 2 PIES.

AGUAS DE AGUA DULCE DE INUNDACIÓN ORIGINARIOS DE LA CORTE DE LA POTOMAC
LLUVIAS DE SANDY, seguirá afectando LA MAREA
POTOMAC … CAUSANDO INUNDACIONES SIGNIFICATIVAS A VIERNES
TARDE.

DEBIDO A LOS VIENTOS DEL NORTE fuertes y persistentes inundaciones en la costa …
A LO LARGO DE PARTES DE LOS GRANDES LAGOS ES POSIBLE.

LLUVIA … ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE HASTA UNA PULGADA SON
PREVISTAS EN LOS LAGOS DEL ESTE GRAN Y TAMBIÉN DEL NORTE Nueva Inglaterra.

Nevada … ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE NIEVE DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON
ESPERA EN LAS MONTAÑAS DE WEST VIRGINIA OCCIDENTAL EN FAR
Maryland y Pennsylvania SUROESTE.

SURF … CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE SURF continuará desde FLORIDA
A TRAVÉS DE NUEVA INGLATERRA PARA LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.

TOTALES DE LLUVIA
—————
SELECCIONADOS DE TORMENTA TOTAL DE LLUVIA EN PULGADAS al 04 AM EDT

WASHINGTON DC … …
WASHINGTON 5,1 NW 5,83
WASHINGTON / NACIONAL 4,84

DELAWARE … …
GEORGETOWN 10,20
DOVER 6,4 W 9,62
MILFORD 9,55
Indian River ACRES 9,49
REHOBOTH BEACH 9,37
CLAYTON 6,6 W 8,62
Dover AFB 8,47
DELANEY ESQUINA 8,33
MILTON 8,30
SMYRNA 2,7 SSE 8,30
SEAFORD 2,3 SSE 8,27
FELTON 3,6 NE 8,00
DOVER 7,98
VIOLA 7,84
GEORGETOWN 5,8 W 7,76

MASSACHUSETTS … …
FITCHBURG 3,85
NORTH Ashburnham 3,70
Pepperell 3,30
Ashburnham 3,20
AYER 3,11
EAST MILTON 3,03
LEOMINSTER 1,5 S 2,92
NATICK 1,7 NNE 2,85
NORTON 1,8 NNE 2,80
ACTON 1,3 SW 2,76
Bedford / Hanscom Field 2,40
Millis 0,6 SSE 2,65
Northborough 0,6 SSE 2,60
NORWOOD 1,3 NW 2,59

MARYLAND … …
EASTON 0,7 NNW 12,55
1 EASTON NNW 12,49
GREENSBORO 1,4 ENE 10,53
QUEENSTOWN 2,6 S 9,89
TRAPPE 3,5 NE 9,78
Bishopville 3,1 9,48 E
DENTON 5,8 W 9,18
PRINCESS ANNE 4,4 W 8,81
PASADENA 2,6 ESE 8,60
Patuxent River NAS 8,32
LA PLATA SE 5,8 8,23
SALISBURY Rgnl ARPT 7,55
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT 7,22
BALIMORE CENTRO DE CIENCIAS 7,18
ANNAPOLIS – Academia Naval de EE.UU. 7,09
BALTIMORE / WASHINGTON INTL ARPT 6,67

CAROLINA DEL NORTE … …
SALVO 0,9 NNE 8,09
AVON 0,7 NE 8,00
COROLLA 3,2 SSE 7,66
PATO SE 0,3 7,22
Kill Devil Hills 2,5 NNW 6,47
HATTERAS / BILLY MITCHELL AP 6,26
COROLLA 11,7 NNW 5,90
KITTY HAWK 4,0 NNW 5,89
Trent Woods 1,3 SSE 4,11
Jamesville 6,1 SW 3,84
JACKSONVILLE 2,0 3,75 E
HOLLY RIDGE 4,8 ENE 3,63
ELIZABETH CITY 10,5 NNW 3,56
MERRY HILL 3,8 3,51 E

… New Hampshire …
GORHAM 3,1 S 4,85
Jaffrey MUNI ARPT 4,78
CENTRO DE SANDWICH 4,9 4,57 E
RANDOLPH 1,4 NE 4,51
WASHINGTON 4,05 MT
NEWBURY 1,6 NW 4,00
NASHUA 3,53
EFFINGHAM 0,9 NNW 3,35
NEWBURY 4.0 SE 3,07
HILLSBOROUGH 2,1 NNW 3,00
BROOKLINE 2,1 SW 3,00
MADISON SE 1,7 2,99
GREENVILLE 1,1 ENE 2,96
BROOKFIELD 0,9 W 2,91
PETERBOROUGH 2,98

NEW JERSEY … …
Wildwood Crest 0,6 NNE 11,91
Green Creek 11,40
North Wildwood 10,24
Seaville 10,06
RIO GRANDE 9,51
West Cape May 9.37
BAJAR TWP 2,2 NE 8,41
ERMA 8,20
ATLANTIC CITY 8,15
CAPE MAY 8,10
WOODBINE 0,8 NNW 7,84
SUPERIOR TWP 3.2 SE 7,75
HAMILTON SE TWP 2,1 7,56
NEWPORT 7,30
CAPE MAY 0,4 NNW 7,28
VINELAND 2,6 W 7,07
Estell Manor 7,06
Cedarville 7,00

NUEVA YORK … …
Whitesville 4,83
1 S 4,59 HAMBURG
PERRYSBURG 4,41
1 SW DUNKIRK 4,09
BATAVIA Genessee 3,80
3 ENE 3,63 LOCKPORT
SHERMAN 0,4 ENE 3,42
NIAGARA FALLS INTL ARPT 3,27
LOCKPORT 2,8 ENE 3,31
LANCASTER 4,1 ENE 3,26
ALCOTT CENTRO 3,25
ELMA Center 0.7 SE 3,06
Dansville 1,0 ENE 3,06
LOCKPORT 0,8 NE 3,05
Hueso 3,6 SW 3,04

OHIO … …
KIRTLAND 0,9 SW 5,69
Aeropuerto de Cleveland Hopkins 5,14
MAYFIELD 0,2 NW 5,10
North Olmsted 2,8 SSW 5,06
Painesville 3,8 SSW 5,02
LORAIN / ELYRIA 4,98
Ashtabula CO ARPT 4,83
ELYRIA 3.0 SE 4,77
Cleveland-Hopkins INTL ARPT 4,56
Broadview Heights 1,5 NW 4,44
AVON 1,6 SW 4,14
BRUNSWICK 0,5 NE 4,08
PARMA 1,9 NNW 3,96
Richmond Heights 0,4 NNE 3,88
WAKEMAN 4,6 NNE 3,77
ELYRIA 0.4 SE 3,70

PENNSYLVANIA … …
HANOVER 5,4 S 7,61
Schellsburg 2,6 W 7,32
GLEN ROCK 2,2 ESE 6,54
MALVERN 0,5 NNE 6,32
Landenberg 1,8 ENE 5,96
New Salem 0,3 W 5,92
2 ENE 5,90 LANDEBERG
Littlestown 3,7 W 5,84
WEST CHESTER 5,78
LATROBE 0,6 NW 5,76
EXTON 5,59
WEST CHESTER SE 1,8 5,54
HANOVER 3,0 W 5,51
Abbottstown 2,4 N 5,43

RHODE ISLAND … …
PAWTUCKET / NORTE CENTRAL ST ARPT 2,71
WOONSOCKET 1,3 ESE 1,87
MANVILLE 0,2 NE 1,76

VIRGINIA … …
Reedville 9,90
VIRGINIA BEACH 9,58
OCEANA NAS / Soucek 9,57
Cashville 0,01 S 9,38
PIEDRA BLANCA 8,0 SSW 8,96
Greenbackville 0,4 W 8,64
Port Haywood 1.0 SE 8,59
Onley 0.6 SE 8,47
Wallops Island 8,48
Onancock 3.9 SW 8,39
VIRGINIA BEACH 1,7 NE 7,99
Purcellville 7,89
5 S 7,75 MAYSVILLE
Yorktown 0.8 SE 7,73
NEWPORT NEWS 5,8 NE 7,63

WEST VIRGINIA … …
Shenandoah Junction 4,46
Falling Waters 2,4 NW 4,36
Slanesville 2.1 SE 3,99
MORGANTOWN / HART CAMPO 3,67
McMechen 6,0 3,56 E
CHARLES TOWN 2,5 NE 3,15
BUNKER HILL 0,8 W 3,06
SPRINGFIELD 2,3 ESE 3,04
HUNTINGTON 2,88
BOOTHSVILLE 1.4 SE 2,83

TOTAL DE NIEVE
—————
TORMENTA DE NIEVE SELECCIONADO TOTAL EN PULGADAS al 04 AM EDT

KENTUCKY .. …
PAYNE GAP 14,0
LYNCH 3S 12,0
ELKO 1NW 9,0
3S Benham 6.0
VIPER 6.0

MARYLAND … …
Redhouse 29,0
Finzel 24,0
OAKLAND 24,0
Deep Creek Lake 20,0
4 SE CHAMPOIN 13,0
Grantsville 12,0
Frostburg 6,0

CAROLINA DEL NORTE … …
COVE CREEK 10NW 24,0
FAUST 24,0
Newfound Gap 22,0
Elk Park 14,0
BULADEAN 12,0
Bakersville 5N 11,0
BEECH MOUNTAIN 1 SE 10,0
PISO DE MUELLES 9,8
ASHLAND 9,0
LANSING 8.0
Muelles planos 1E 7.0

OHIO … …
BELLEFONTAINE 4,5
BELLEFONTAINE 2N 3,0
Washington Court House 3,0
MANSFIELD 2,5

PENNSYLVANIA … …
CHAMPION 4SE 13,0
LAUREL CUMBRE 10,0
MONTAJE DE DAVIS 9,0
FARMINGTON 8,8
LAUREL CUMBRE 9,6

TENNESSEE … …
GATLINBURG 7SE 22,0
Roan Mountain 19,0
Newfound Gap 18,0
MONTAJE LECONTE 17,0

VIRGINIA … …
NORTON 2S 24,0
TAZEWELL 2N 15,0
WISE 14.0 6E
LÍBANO 12,0
Burkes Garden 8,4
RICHLANDS 8,0
Honaker 8,0
Mouth of Wilson 8.0

WEST VIRGINIA … …
5 WSW 28,0 Huttonsville
DAVIS 28,0
FLAT TOP 28,0
Craigsville 26,0
ALEXANDER 24,0
Quinwood 24,0
Nettie 24,0
TERRA ALTA 24,0
Kitzmiller 24,0
BEVERLY 21,0
BAYARD 21,5
Huttonsville 18,0
CASTOR 18,0
1 S 18,0 MACARTHUR
WEBSTER Spings 17,0
FAYETTEVILLE 11E 15,0
ELKINS 14,0

RAFAGAS DE VIENTO
———–
SELECCIONADOS ráfagas máximas del viento en millas por hora desde antes en el
EVENTO

CONNECTICUT … …
MADISON 85
BRIDGEPORT AEROPUERTO 76
GROTON 76
GREENWICH 70

MAINE … …
BATH 76
PORTLAND JETPORT 63
Kennebunk 2NE 62

MARYLAND … …
Laytonsville 1ESE 76
OCEAN CITY 74
Crocheron 2SSE 70
ANNAPOLIS 69
ARBUTUS 68
FREDRICK 1NE 62

MASSACHUSETTS … …
CUTTYHUNK 83
WELLFLEET 81
BARNSTABLE 79
Wrentham 77

MICHIGAN … …
Fort Gratiot 74
PUERTO TOLEDO 66
Port Sanilac 65
South Bass Island 63
SOUTH HAVEN 1W 60

… New Hampshire …
GOSHEN 70
LONDONDERRY 62
PORTSMOUTH INTL AIRP 60

NEW JERSEY … …
Tompkinsville 2N 90
SURF CITY 89
Tuckerton 88
MONTCLAIR 1N 88
NEWPORT 87
NOS Sandy Hook BOYA 87
Dennisville 81
CLIFTON 80
NEWARK 78
ATLANTIC CITY 77
BAYONNE 1ENE 77

NUEVA YORK … …
ISLIP 90
Plum Island 4 ENE 85
Syosset 82
Point Lookout 1E 80
JFK 79

OHIO .. …
Burke Lakefront ARPT 67
CLEVELAND HOPKINS ARPT 63
South Bass Island 62

PENNSYLVANIA … …
ALLENTOWN 81
BENSALEM 76
Bushkill CENTRO 70
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT 68
MONTAJE POCONO AEROPUERTO 66
Mount Aetna 64
WIND GAP 62

RHODE ISLAND … …
WESTERLY 86
WARREN 73

VERMONT … …
STOWE 8NW 72
Lyndon Center 61
UNDERHILL 60

VIRGINIA … …
CHESTER GAP 3NNE 79
WINTERGREEN 4 NW 72
Wallops Island 68
MELFA / Accomack ARPT 62
HACKSHECK 1NW 60

WEST VIRGINIA … …
RANSON 1 NNW 65
KEYSER 2 SSW 64
MARTINSBURG ARPT 60

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
————-
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA A LAS 1100 AM EDT. CONSULTE A SU
LOCAL OFICINA NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA DE SERVICIO PARA MÁS INFORMACIÓN SOBRE
ESTA TORMENTA.

PETERSEN / Orrison / TERRY

POSICIONES DE PREDICCIÓN
——————
INITIAL 31/0900Z NO circulación superficial perceptible

$ $

French:

WTNT33 KWNH 310902
TCPAT3

VESTIGES DU NOMBRE CONSULTATIF DE SABLE 36
NWS hydrométéorologiques Prediction Center College Park MD AL182012
0500 MER HAE 31 octobre 2012

RESTES DE SANDY … CONTINUER DE FAIBLIR dessus de la Pennsylvanie …

RÉSUMÉ DE 0500 HAE … 0900 UTC … INFORMATIONS
———————————————–
EMPLACEMENT … NON CIRCULATION DE SURFACE DISCERNABLE

MONTRES ET MISES EN GARDE
——————–
RÉSUMÉ DES MONTRES ET ALERTES EN VIGUEUR …

AVERTISSEMENTS DE COUP DE VENT ET Avis POUR PETITS BATEAUX SONT EN VIGUEUR POUR
UNE PARTIE DES GRANDS LACS. AVIS DE PETITS BATEAUX SONT EN VIGUEUR
Sur une grande partie de la dorsale médio-Atlantique et NORD-EST.

MONTRES ET COTIERE Flood Flood … MISES EN GARDE ET … Avis aux SONT EN
EFFET SUR LES SECTEURS DE LA MI-ATLANTIQUE NORD ET LES ÉTATS.

AVERTISSEMENTS DE TEMPÊTE D’HIVER ET D’HIVER avis météorologiques RESTENT EN
EFFET DE LA MONTAGNE DU SUD-OUEST DE L’OUEST PENNSYLVANIE …
MARYLAND … VIRGINIE OCCIDENTALE … L’EST DE L’EST DU TENNESSEE …
KENTUCKY ET … EXTREME OUEST CAROLINE DU NORD.

Pour des informations spécifiques à votre région, montres et …
AVERTISSEMENTS … S’IL VOUS PLAÎT PRODUITS DU MONITEUR émis par votre LOCAL NATIONAL
BUREAU service de météo sur WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION ET PERSPECTIVES DE 48 HEURES
——————————
À 0500 HAE … 0900 UTC … IL N’Y A PAS DE SURFACE DISCERNABLE
CIRCULATION POUR LES RESTES DE SANDY. SANDY A FAIBLI DANS UNE
CREUX DE SURFACE DE DEPRESSION SUR ouest de la Pennsylvanie.

DANGERS
——-
VENT … DES VENTS FORTS se poursuivra jusqu’à mercredi matin,
SECTEURS DE L’EST-NORD ET LES GRANDS LACS.

ONDE DE TEMPÊTE … niveaux d’eau élevés CONTINUERA à se calmer LONG
LA CÔTE DE LA CAROLINE DU NORD AU COURS DE LA JOURNÉE DU MASSACHUSETTS. EN
PARTIES DE BAIE DE CHESAPEAKE … normalement les zones sèches près de la côte
Pourrait encore être inondées par la montée des eaux AUTOUR DU TEMPS DE LA
SUIVANT LA MARÉE HAUTE. L’eau pourrait atteindre les profondeurs suivantes au-dessus
DE-CHAUSSÉE:

Moyennes et supérieures CHESAPEAKE BAY … 1 à 2 pieds.

Les eaux de crue D’EAU DOUCE EN PROVENANCE DU HAUT DU POTOMAC
PLUIES DE SANDY continueront d’influer LA MARÉE
POTOMAC … entraînant des inondations IMPORTANTE AU VENDREDI
APRES-MIDI.

EN RAISON DE forte et persistante VENTS DU NORD … Les inondations côtières
SUR UNE PARTIE DES GRANDS LACS EST POSSIBLE.

PLUIE … AUTRES ACCUMULATIONS DE PLUIE jusqu’à un pouce SONT
ATTENDUS AU COURS DES LACS DE L’EST GRANDS ET AUSSI Northern New England.

NEIGE … SUPPLÉMENTAIRES ACCUMULATION DE NEIGE DE 2 A 4 POUCES SONT
ATTENDUS AU COURS DES MONTAGNES DU FAR WEST VIRGINIA EN OUEST
MARYLAND ET DU SUD-OUEST PENNSYLVANIE.

SURF SURF … CONDITIONS DANGEREUSES CONTINUERA DE LA FLORIDE
PAR LA NOUVELLE-ANGLETERRE POUR DES DEUX PROCHAINS JOURS.

TOTAUX DE PLUIE
—————
PLUIE DE TEMPÊTE CHOISIS totale en pouces à 04 HAE

WASHINGTON DC … …
WASHINGTON NO 5,1 5,83
WASHINGTON / NATIONAL 4,84

DELAWARE … …
GEORGETOWN 10,20
DOVER 6,4 ONO 9,62
MILFORD 9,55
INDIAN RIVER ACRES 9,49
Rehoboth Beach 9,37
CLAYTON 6,6 W 8,62
Dover AFB 8,47
COIN DELANEY 8,33
MILTON 8,30
SMYRNA 2,7 SSE 8,30
SEAFORD 2,3 SSE 8,27
FELTON 3,6 NE 8,00
DOVER 7,98
VIOLA 7,84
GEORGETOWN 5,8 W 7,76

MASSACHUSETTS … …
FITCHBURG 3,85
NORD ASHBURNHAM 3,70
Pepperell 3,30
ASHBURNHAM 3,20
AYER 3,11
EAST MILTON 3,03
LEOMINSTER 1,5 S 2,92
NATICK 1,7 NNE 2,85
NORTON 1,8 NNE 2,80
ACTON 1,3 SO 2,76
BEDFORD / Hanscom Field 2,40
MILLIS 0,6 SSE 2,65
Northborough 0,6 SSE 2,60
NORWOOD 1,3 NW 2,59

MARYLAND … …
EASTON 0,7 NNO 12,55
1 NNO EASTON 12,49
GREENSBORO 1,4 ENE 10,53
QUEENSTOWN 2,6 S 9,89
TRAPPE 3,5 NE 9,78
Bishopville 3,1 E 9,48
DENTON 5,8 SO 9,18
PRINCESSE ANNE SO 4,4 8,81
PASADENA 2,6 ESE 8,60
Patuxent River NAS 8,32
LA PLATA 5.8 SE 8,23
SALISBURY RGNL ARPT 7,55
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT 7,22
BALIMORE SCIENCE CENTER 7,18
ANNAPOLIS – US Naval Academy 7,09
Baltimore / Washington INTL ARPT 6,67

CAROLINE DU NORD … …
SALVO 0,9 NNE 8,09
AVON NE 0,7 8,00
COROLLA 3.2 SSE 7,66
CANARD SE 0,3 7,22
Kill Devil Hills 2,5 NNO 6,47
HATTERAS / BILLY MITCHELL AP 6,26
COROLLE 11,7 NNO 5,90
Kitty Hawk 4.0 NNO 5,89
Trent Woods 1.3 SSE 4,11
Jamesville 6,1 SO 3,84
JACKSONVILLE 2,0 E 3,75
Holly Ridge 4,8 ENE 3,63
ELIZABETH CITY 10,5 NNO 3,56
Merry Hill 3,8 E 3,51

NEW HAMPSHIRE … …
GORHAM 3,1 S 4,85
JAFFREY MUNI ARPT 4,78
SANDWICH CENTER 4,9 E 4,57
RANDOLPH 1,4 NE 4,51
MT WASHINGTON 4,05
NEWBURY 1,6 NW 4,00
NASHUA 3,53
EFFINGHAM 0,9 NNO 3,35
NEWBURY 4.0 SE 3,07
HILLSBOROUGH 2,1 NNO 3,00
BROOKLINE 2,1 SO 3,00
MADISON 1.7 SE 2,99
GREENVILLE 1,1 ENE 2,96
BROOKFIELD 0,9 SO 2,91
PETERBOROUGH 2,98

NEW JERSEY … …
Wildwood Crest 0,6 NNE 11,91
GREEN CREEK 11,40
North Wildwood 10,24
Seaville 10,06
RIO GRANDE 9,51
West Cape May 9,37
LOWER TWP 2.2 NE 8,41
ERMA 8,20
ATLANTIC CITY 8,15
CAPE MAY 8,10
WOODBINE 0,8 NNO 7,84
UPPER TWP 3.2 SE 7,75
HAMILTON TWP 2.1 SE 7,56
NEWPORT 7,30
CAPE MAY 0.4 NNO 7,28
VINELAND 2,6 SO 7,07
Estell Manor 7,06
Cedarville 7,00

NEW YORK … …
Whitesville 4,83
1 S HAMBURG 4,59
PERRYSBURG 4,41
1 SW DUNKERQUE 4,09
BATAVIA Genessee 3,80
3 janv. LOCKPORT 3,63
SHERMAN 0,4 ENE 3,42
NIAGARA FALLS INTL ARPT 3,27
LOCKPORT 2,8 ENE 3,31
LANCASTER 4,1 ENE 3,26
ALCOTT CENTRE 3,25
ELMA Center 0.7 SE 3,06
Dansville 1,0 ENE 3,06
LOCKPORT 0,8 NE 3,05
WEST AMANDE 3,6 SO 3,04

OHIO … …
KIRTLAND 0,9 SO 5,69
Aéroport de Cleveland Hopkins 5,14
MAYFIELD NO 0,2 5,10
North Ridgeville 2.8 SSW 5,06
Painesville 3,8 SSW 5,02
LORAIN / ELYRIA 4,98
Ashtabula CO ARPT 4,83
ELYRIA 3.0 SE 4,77
Cleveland-Hopkins INTL ARPT 4,56
Broadview Heights 1,5 NW 4,44
AVON 1,6 SO 4,14
NE-Brunswick 0,5 4,08
PARME 1,9 NNO 3,96
Richmond Heights 0,4 NNE 3,88
WAKEMAN 4,6 NNE 3,77
ELYRIA 0.4 SE 3,70

PENNSYLVANIE … …
HANOVRE 5,4 S 7,61
Schellsburg 2,6 ONO 7,32
GLEN ROCK 2,2 ESE 6,54
MALVERN 0,5 NNE 6,32
Landenberg 1,8 ENE 5,96
New Salem 0,3 SO 5,92
2 janv. LANDEBERG 5,90
Littlestown 3,7 ONO 5,84
WEST CHESTER 5,78
LATROBE 0,6 NW 5,76
EXTON 5,59
WEST CHESTER 1.8 SE 5,54
Hanover 3.0 WSW 5,51
Abbottstown 2,4 N 5,43

RHODE ISLAND … …
PAWTUCKET / CENTRE-NORD ST ARPT 2,71
WOONSOCKET 1,3 ESE 1,87
MANVILLE 0,2 NE 1,76

VIRGINIA … …
Reedville 9,90
VIRGINIA BEACH 9,58
OCEANA NAS / SOUCEK 9,57
Cashville 0,01 S 9,38
PIERRE BLANCHE 8,0 SSW 8,96
Greenbackville 0,4 ONO 8,64
Port Haywood 1.0 SE 8,59
ONLEY 0.6 SE 8,47
ÎLE WALLOPS 8,48
Onancock 3,9 SO 8,39
VIRGINIA BEACH 1,7 NE 7,99
Purcellville 7,89
5 S Maysville 7,75
YORKTOWN 0.8 SE 7,73
NEWPORT NOUVELLES NE 5,8 7,63

VIRGINIE OCCIDENTALE … …
Shenandoah Junction 4,46
EAUX une baisse de 2,4 NO 4,36
SLANESVILLE 2.1 SE 3,99
MORGANTOWN / HART DOMAINE 3,67
McMechen 6,0 E 3,56
CHARLES VILLE NE 2,5 3,15
BUNKER HILL 0,8 ONO 3,06
SPRINGFIELD 2,3 ESE 3,04
HUNTINGTON 2,88
BOOTHSVILLE 1.4 SE 2,83

TOTAUX DE NEIGE
—————
NEIGE DE TEMPÊTE EN POUCES CHOISI TOTAL à 04 HAE

KENTUCKY .. …
PAYNE GAP 14,0
3S 12,0 LYNCH
ELKO 1NW 9,0
3S Benham 6,0
VIPER 6,0

MARYLAND … …
REDHOUSE 29,0
Finzel 24,0
OAKLAND 24,0
Deep Creek Lake 20,0
4 SE CHAMPOIN 13,0
Grantsville 12,0
Frostburg 6.0

CAROLINE DU NORD … …
Crique 10NW 24,0
FAUST 24,0
Newfound Gap 22,0
ELK PARK 14,0
BULADEAN 12,0
Bakersville 5N 11,0
Beech Mountain 1 SE 10,0
Ressorts plats 9,8
ASHLAND 9,0
LANSING 8,0
Ressorts plats 1E 7.0

OHIO … …
BELLEFONTAINE 4,5
BELLEFONTAINE 2N 3,0
Washington Court House 3.0
Mansfield 2,5

PENNSYLVANIE … …
CHAMPION 4SE 13,0
LAUREL SOMMET 10,0
Mount Davis 9,0
FARMINGTON 8,8
LAUREL SOMMET 9.6

TENNESSEE … …
GATLINBURG 7SE 22,0
Roan Mountain 19,0
Newfound Gap 18,0
MOUNT LECONTE 17,0

VIRGINIA … …
2S 24,0 NORTON
TAZEWELL 2N 15,0
WISE 6E 14.0
LIBAN 12,0
Burkes Garden 8.4
RICHLANDS 8,0
Honaker 8,0
Mouth of Wilson 8.0

VIRGINIE OCCIDENTALE … …
5 OSO Huttonsville 28,0
DAVIS 28,0
FLAT TOP 28.0
Craigsville 26,0
ALEXANDER 24,0
Quinwood 24,0
NETTIE 24,0
TERRA ALTA 24,0
Kitzmiller 24,0
BEVERLY 21,0
BAYARD 21,5
Huttonsville 18,0
BEAVER 18,0
1 E MACARTHUR 18,0
WEBSTER SPINGS 17,0
FAYETTEVILLE 11E 15,0
ELKINS 14,0

RAFALES
———–
SÉLECTION DES RAFALES DE POINTE en miles par heure plus tôt dans la
ÉVÉNEMENT

CONNECTICUT … …
MADISON 85
BRIDGEPORT AÉROPORT 76
GROTON 76
GREENWICH 70

MAINE … …
BATH 76
Portland Jetport 63
Kennebunk 2NE 62

MARYLAND … …
Laytonsville 1ESE 76
OCEAN CITY 74
Crocheron 2SSE 70
ANNAPOLIS 69
ARBUTUS 68
FREDRICK 1NE 62

MASSACHUSETTS … …
CUTTYHUNK 83
Wellfleet 81
BARNSTABLE 79
WRENTHAM 77

MICHIGAN … …
Fort Gratiot 74
TOLEDO HARBOR 66
Port Sanilac 65
South Bass Island 63
South Haven 60 1W

NEW HAMPSHIRE … …
GOSHEN 70
LONDONDERRY 62
PORTSMOUTH INTL AIRP 60

NEW JERSEY … …
Tompkinsville 2N 90
Surf City 89
Tuckerton 88
MONTCLAIR 1N 88
NEWPORT 87
NOS Sandy Hook BUOY 87
Dennisville 81
CLIFTON 80
NEWARK 78
ATLANTIC CITY 77
BAYONNE 1ENE 77

NEW YORK … …
Islip 90
PLUM ISLAND 4 ENE 85
Syosset 82
Point Lookout 1E 80
JFK 79

OHIO .. …
Burke Lakefront ARPT 67
CLEVELAND HOPKINS ARPT 63
South Bass Island 62

PENNSYLVANIE … …
ALLENTOWN 81
BENSALEM 76
Bushkill centre 70
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT 68
Mount Pocono AÉROPORT 66
Mont Etna 64
GAP 62 Vent

RHODE ISLAND … …
OUEST 86
WARREN 73

VERMONT … …
STOWE 8NW 72
Lyndon Centre 61
UNDERHILL 60

VIRGINIA … …
CHESTER GAP 3NNE 79
WINTERGREEN 4 NO 72
WALLOPS Édouard 68
MELFA / Accomack ARPT 62
HACKSHECK 1NW 60

VIRGINIE OCCIDENTALE … …
RANSON une NNO 65
KEYSER 2 SSO 64
MARTINSBURG ARPT 60

PROCHAINE CONSULTATIF
————-
AVIS SUIVANT SERA EMIS AT 1100 HAE. S’IL VOUS PLAÎT CONSULTER VOTRE
BUREAU LOCAL SERVICE NATIONAL DE TEMPS POUR PLUS D’INFORMATIONS SUR
LA TEMPÊTE.

PETERSEN / Orrison / TERRY

Positions prévues
——————
INITIAL NON 31/0900Z CIRCULATION DE SURFACE DISCERNABLE

$ $

801
acus01 kwns 301255
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 301253

Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 am CDT Tuesday Oct 30 2012

Valid 301300z – 311200z

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast…


former tropical cyclone Sandy and middle-latitude upper trough that
formed over the southern Appalachians on Sunday have evolved into an
expansive upper low centered over the Maryland-PA border this morning. The
system should weaken as it edges a bit farther west or west-northwest today…and
should turn more northward tonight as it continues to slowly fill. Polar air
has completely engulfed residual surface low now over S central
PA…leaving axis of relatively warm/moist air originating in the
central Atlantic displaced well to the north and east across parts of New
England. Modest low-level buoyancy in this corridor may yield a
marginal thunderstorm/conditional severe risk over central and eastern New England.

Elsewhere…dry weather will prevail over the central U.S. And much of
the west as a ridge amplifies over the Great Basin in response to strong
system approaching the Pacific northwest.

..cntrl/eastern New England through early Wednesday…
Plume of enhanced low-level moisture originating near Bermuda will
stream northward into eastern New England today…on far eastern fringe of Maryland-PA
upper low. Coupled with relatively warm air mass already present
across the region /reflecting anomalous blocking high of recent days
over the Canadian Maritimes/ and modest low-level confluence…a low
probabilistic risk will exist for the development of scattered thunderstorms.

Given strong…largely unidirectional deep field /with 850-700 mb
flow around 40-50 kts/…a conditional threat will exist for isolated
low-topped storms capable of severe gusts…especially later today
through this evening. Location of surface low in PA will keep near-surface winds
over most of New England backed to an Ely component. While this will
diminish low-level buoyancy /especially near the coast/…it may
sufficiently enhance low-level hodograph curvature to pose a risk for
a brief tornado in any stronger/more sustained updrafts that do
form. Upslope component to flow could enhance the potential for
storms in New Hampshire and ME. Finally…some increase in large scale forcing
for ascent/DCVA may occur over southern and eastern New England late
tonight/early Wednesday as the PA upper low begins to edge northward and the system
assumes more of a negative tilt. This may maintain or perhaps
somewhat increase prospects for thunderstorm development over parts of New
England later in the forecast period.

.Corfidi/Mosier.. 10/30/2012

Mesoscale Discussion

786
acus11 kwns 300952
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 300951
mez000-maz000-nhz000-riz000-vtz000-ctz000-nyz000-301145-

Mesoscale discussion 2093
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 am CDT Tuesday Oct 30 2012

Areas affected…ME/NH/VT/MA/CT/RI

Concerning…severe potential…watch possible

Valid 300951z – 301145z

Probability of watch issuance…40 percent

Summary…low-end/isolated severe potential to gradually evolve
across New England over the next several hours. Ww may become
necessary.

Discussion…latest radar imagery shows showers and
isolated/occasional thunderstorms streaming nwwd off the Atlantic
and onshore across New England…on the northestern side of the remnants of
Hurricane Sandy. While little lightning has been observed…models
have consistently forecast an increase in deep convection this
am…as middle-level temperatures cool/lapse rates steepen with time.
While a shallow/somewhat stable boundary layer persists…a nwwd
stream of higher low-level Theta-E air will persist which — given
the aforementioned middle-level cooling — will result in very modest
destabilization of the airmass with time.

With very strong /50-plus knots/ northwesterly flow just off the
surface…downward transport of momentum will become increasingly
possible as convection becomes stronger/more widespread within the
weakly destabilizing environment. Additionally…the rapid increase
— and weak veering — of the wind field with height in the lowest
1-2 km would likewise support brief tornado potential within
stronger cells. Indeed…a few weakly rotating cells have been
observed moving onshore this morning…and expect this trend to
continue/increase over the next few hours.

Overall…severe potential should remain very isolated and low-end
through this morning. Still…given the strength of the background
kinematic environment…an increase in coverage and intensity of
convection — even locally — would result in a corresponding
increase in severe threat.

.Goss/corfidi.. 10/30/2012

..please see http://www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product…

Attention…WFO…car…gyx…box…btv…okx…aly…

Latitude…Lon 41117184 41887299 42777310 43647306 44937128 45776916
45746771 44886666 44626690 43856843 43576942 43127007
42687010 42066972 41486974 40976983 40897131 41117184

Active Severe Weather Alerts in the US (weatherusa.net)

UK Severe Weather RSS Feeds

Current Hurricane Local StatementProducts:

These statements are available at weather.gov

Superstorm Sandy delivers a devastating blow to the U.S.

Published: 3:23 PM GMT on October 30, 2012

“In a stunning spectacle of atmospheric violence, Superstorm Sandy roared ashore in New Jersey last night with sustained winds of 90 mph and a devastating storm surge that crippled coastal New Jersey and New York. Sandy’s record size allowed the historic storm to bring extreme weather to over 100 million Americans, from Chicago to Maine and from Michigan to Florida. Sandy’s barometric pressure at landfall was 946 mb, tying the Great Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938 as the most powerful storm ever to hit the Northeast U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC. New York City experienced its worst hurricane since its founding in 1624, as Sandy’s 9-foot storm surge rode in on top of a high tide to bring water levels to 13.88′ at The Battery, smashing the record 11.2′ water level recorded during the great hurricane of 1821. Damage from Superstorm Sandy will likely be in the tens of billions, making the storm one of the five most expensive disasters in U.S. history.”


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Superstorm Sandy taken at 10 am EDT Tuesday, October 30, 2012. Image credit: NASA GSFC.

“….Sandy’s snows
Sandy’s snows have clobbered the town of Davis, WV with an estimated 26 – 28″ of snow. Most of the town is without power, and winds are blowing 20 – 30 mph with 40 mph gusts. Sandy brought the snowiest October day on record to both Elkins, WV (7″ of snow) and Bluefield, WV (4.7″.)…”

Video: Multiple trees fall during powerful gusts during Superstorm Sandy’s landfall in New Jersey Monday evening (warning: foul language.)

There’s so much more to say about Sandy–including how the storm may have been influenced by climate change–but I’ll save this for later posts, as it’s time to get something posted.

Angela Fritz has a 2:30 pm EDT post that discusses the latest on Sandy’s impact and forecast.

These are extracts from Dr. Jeff Masters (full details follow link)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Spanish:

Superstorm arena asesta un golpe devastador a los EE.UU.

Por el Dr. Jeff Masters
Publicado: 3:23 PM GMT en 30 de octubre 2012

“En un impresionante espectáculo de la violencia atmosférica, Superstorm arena tocó tierra en Nueva Jersey anoche con vientos sostenidos de 90 kilómetros por hora y una marea de tormenta devastadora que paralizó la costa de Nueva Jersey y el tamaño de Nueva York. Sandy registro permitió a la tormenta histórica para traer el clima extremo a más de 100 millones de estadounidenses, desde Chicago hasta Maine y desde Michigan a Florida. presión barométrica de Sandy al tocar tierra fue de 946 mb, empatando el Great Long Island Express huracán de 1938 como la tormenta más poderosa que jamás haya golpeado el noreste de EE.UU. al norte de Cabo Hatteras, Carolina del Norte . New York experimentó su peor huracán desde su fundación en 1624, como 9-pie de Sandy oleada de la tormenta iba en la parte superior de una marea alta para que los niveles de agua de 13,88 “a la batería, rompiendo el récord de 11,2” nivel de agua registrados durante el gran huracán de 1821. Daños por Superstorm arena será probablemente de decenas de miles de millones, lo que hace que la tormenta uno de los cinco desastres más costosos en la historia de EE.UU. “.

Figura 1. Imagen de satélite de la mañana Superstorm arena tomada a las 10 am EDT Martes, 30 de octubre 2012. Crédito de la imagen: NASA GSFC.

“…. Sandy nieves
Nieves Sandy han insertada en la ciudad de Davis, WV con un estimado de 26 – 28. “De nieve La mayor parte de la ciudad sin energía eléctrica, y los vientos están soplando 20 – 30. Mph con 40 ráfagas mph arena trajo la más nevoso día de octubre en el registro de tanto Elkins (7 “de nieve) y Bluefield, WV (4,7″). … ”

Video: varios árboles caen durante rachas fuertes durante recalada Superstorm arena en Nueva Jersey la noche del lunes (advertencia:. Lenguaje grosero)

Hay mucho más que decir sobre Sandy – incluyendo la forma en que la tormenta puede haber sido influenciado por el cambio climático – pero voy a guardar esto para puestos más tarde, ya que es hora de conseguir algo publicado.

Angela Fritz tiene un mensaje 14:30 EDT que discute más tardar el impacto de Sandy y pronóstico.

Para saber si tiene que evacuar, por favor póngase en contacto con su oficina local de manejo de emergencias. Ellos tendrán la información más reciente. Las personas que viven en Nueva York puede encontrar su zona de evacuación aquí o utilizar este mapa. FEMA tiene información sobre cómo prepararse para los huracanes. ” http://www.ready.gov/translations/spanish/america/beinformed/hurricanes.html

Estos son extractos del Dr. Jeff Masters (detalles seguir el enlace)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

French:

Superstorm de sable porte un coup dévastateur aux États-Unis

Par le Dr Jeff Master
Publié: 15:23 GMT le 30 Octobre, 2012

«Dans un spectacle étonnant de la violence atmosphérique, Superstorm Sandy rugit à terre dans le New Jersey hier soir, avec des vents soutenus de 90 mph et une onde de tempête dévastatrice qui paralyse la côte du New Jersey et de la taille d’enregistrement de New York. Sandy a permis la tempête historique à donner du temps extrême plus de 100 millions d’Américains, de Chicago à Maine et du Michigan à la Floride. pression barométrique de sable, à l’atterrissage était de 946 mb, égalant le Grand long Island express Hurricane de 1938, la tempête la plus puissante qui ait jamais frappé le nord-Est américain au nord du cap Hatteras, en Caroline du Nord . New York City a connu sa pire tempête depuis sa création en 1624, comme poussée Sandy tempête 9-pied monté sur le dessus de la marée haute pour ramener les niveaux d’eau à 13,88 ‘à la batterie, brisant l’11,2 dossier «niveau d’eau enregistré au cours de la grand ouragan de 1821. dommages causés par Superstorm sable sera probablement dans les dizaines de milliards, ce qui rend la tempête l’un des cinq catastrophes les plus coûteuses de l’histoire américaine. ”

Figure 1. Image satellite matin du Superstorm Sandy prises à 10 heures HAE le mardi, Octobre 30, 2012. Crédit image: NASA GSFC.

“…. Sandy neiges
Neiges de sable ont mis à mal la ville de Davis, Virginie-Occidentale avec une 26 environ -. 28 “de neige majeure partie de la ville est sans électricité, et les vents soufflent 20 -. 30 mph avec 40 rafales mph sable apporté le plus enneigé jour Octobre au dossier pour à la fois Elkins, Virginie-Occidentale (7 “de la neige) et Bluefield, Virginie-Occidentale (4,7″). … ”

Vidéo: les arbres tombent pendant plusieurs puissantes rafales pendant touché terre Superstorm de sable dans le New Jersey lundi soir (attention:. Langage grossier)

Il ya tellement plus à dire à propos de Sandy – y compris la façon dont la tempête a peut-être été influencé par le changement climatique – mais je vais mettre ça pour les messages plus tard, car il est temps d’obtenir quelque chose posté.

Angela Fritz a 14h30 HAE poste qui traite plus tard sur l’impact de Sandy et de prévision.

Pour savoir si vous devez évacuer, s’il vous plaît contacter votre bureau local de gestion des urgences. Ils auront l’information la plus récente. Les personnes vivant à New York peuvent trouver leur zone d’évacuation ici ou utiliser cette carte. La FEMA a des informations sur la préparation aux ouragans. ” http://www.ready.gov/translations/french/getakitindex.html

Ce sont des extraits de maîtrise Jeff Dr (plus de détails suivre le lien)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

 

New York Subway/MTA Service Suspended Due to Hurricane Sandy

Service on the NYC Subway and bus network, Long Island Rail Road, Metro-North Railroad, and Staten Island Railway is suspended. Access-A-Ride service, including subscription service is suspended until further notice.The MTA began an orderly shutdown of commuter rail and subway service, as directed by Governor Andrew M. Cuomo, at 7:00 p.m. Sunday, October 28th. The decision to shut down the MTA network was made to protect customers, employees and equipment from the wrath of Hurricane Sandy as the strong storm continues its march up the east coast. This is the only the second time the full network has been shut down preemptively in connection with a weather event.

Subway and rail road stations are closed and access to Penn Station has been restricted. Grand Central Terminal is closed.

The MTA Hurricane Plan calls for suspending service hours before the approach of winds of 39 mph and higher. That gives MTA crews time to prepare rail and subway cars, buses, tunnels, yards and buildings for the storm, then return to safety. Winds of 39 mph and higher are predicted to reach the metropolitan region during the predawn hours Monday.

The MTA began preparing to suspend service several days in advance by readying recovery equipment, clearing drainage areas, moving vehicles from low-lying areas at bus depots and rail yards and sealing some tunnel access points.

The duration of the service suspension is unknown, and there is no timetable for restoration. Service will be restored only when it is safe to do so, and after careful inspections of all equipment, tracks and other sub-systems. Even with minimal damage this is expected to be a lengthy process.

Customers and the media should monitor this website or call 511 for the most current service information.

New York City Transit

MTA New York City Transit subway and bus service was suspended on Sunday October 28th, along with Staten Island Railway (SIR) and Access-A-Ride services.  All mass transit has been suspended in anticipation of the high winds and heavy rains and the significant storm surge driven by Hurricane Sandy.

Maintenance crews worked through the night, taking the necessary steps to protect and secure vital equipment in bus depots, train yards, tunnels and along the right-of-way. This process is taking several hours but most of the work will completed prior to the onset of sustained 39 miles-per-hour tropical force winds.

Long Island Rail Road

MTA Long Island Rail Road has suspended all train service system wide, in advance of Hurricane Sandy making landfall, for the safety of its customers, employees and to protect its equipment.  Access to the LIRR portion of Penn Station and to Jamaica Station is restricted.

Suspending service allows the LIRR to secure and protect its equipment and infrastructure from the strong winds and flooding expected to hit the Long Island on Monday.  With the shutdown, train equipment – both electric and diesel – will be removed from yards in low-lying areas that are prone to flooding.

Metro-North Railroad

Metro-North has suspended all train service due to the expected severity of Hurricane Sandy and its impact on our territory.

Shutting down the system allows Metro-North to secure and protect its equipment and infrastructure from the hurricane force winds and flooding expected to hit the region.

Bridges and Tunnels

The Hugh L. Carey Tunnel (formerly Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel) has been closed in both directions as directed by Governor Andrew M. Cuomo until further notice due to potential flooding as a result of the oncoming storm.

All other MTA crossings remain open as of 2 p.m. on Monday, October 29, 2012.

Motorists are asked to reduce speeds to 25 mph at all crossings due to wind and rain.

In addition, certain types of vehicles including step vans, tractor trailers, motorcycles and vehicles pulling a trailer are barred from crossing the Marine Parkway-Gil Hodges and Cross Bay Veterans bridges at this time due to sustained winds above 50 mph.

Powerful Sandy Making Final Push Toward Mid-Atlantic

UPDATED 2 PM EDT, October 29, 2012

UPDATED By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Seth Carrier

Enlarge

Dangerous Hurricane Sandy remains powerful as it moves toward the Atlantic coast this afternoon. Landfall is expected along the southern New Jersey coast early this evening. Destructive winds producing massive power outages, life-threatening storm surge and inland flooding and hurricane-force coastal winds are all on the weather menu for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as Sandy comes ashore.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from north of Surf City to Duck, N.C., including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Widespread High Wind Warnings stretch from Virginia to Maine and westward into Ohio, with Wind Advisories from Michigan to Georgia.
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed already, and if you have not evacuated, it is likely too late to do so. Tropical storm force wind gusts are already being felt as far north as Long Island and southeastern New England. Hurricane force winds are likely tonight from Chincoteague, Va., to Chatham, Mass., including Delaware Bay, New York City and Long Island.
Sandy`s effects will only grow and worsen across the highly-populated Interstate 95 corridor in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today and tomorrow. For the most up-to-date information, click here.
As of 2 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Sandy was centered near 38.3 N and 73.1 W, or 110 miles southeast of Atlantic City, N.J., and 175 miles south- southeast of New York City. Its top sustained winds are 90 mph, making it a Category One Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Sandy is moving northwest at 28 mph and its minimum central pressure has dropped again to 940 mb, or 27.76 inches of mercury.
Hurricane Sandy remains strong as it passes over the Gulf Stream, and it is expected to remain a hurricane as it bends to the northwest. This will put the center on a path to come ashore near or just south of Atlantic City, N.J. As it approaches the coastline, it will finally lose its tropical characteristics, becoming an extremely strong low pressure system.
The slow transition to a non-tropical low has allowed the winds to spread out from the center, and is what makes Sandy so dangerous. Its hurricane force winds extend 175 miles from the storm`s circulation center and tropical storm force winds up to 485 miles from Sandy`s center. This makes Sandy one of the largest storms in recorded history. As a result, Sandy`s impact will be far-reaching, with damaging winds across the entire Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and even as far west as the Chicago area. It is imperative to monitor the entire storm, not just its center.

Spanish:
Potente arena empuje final hacia la Realización del Atlántico Medio
ACTUALIZADO 14:00 EDT, 29 de octubre 2012
Actualizado por WeatherBug Meteorólogo, Carrier Seth
AmpliarPeligroso huracán de arena sigue siendo fuerte a medida que avanza hacia la costa atlántica de la tarde. Landfall se espera a lo largo de la costa sur de Nueva Jersey a principios de la tarde. Vientos destructivos producen cortes masivos de energía, potencialmente mortal, mareas de tempestad y las inundaciones tierra adentro y son huracanados vientos costeros todo en el menú del tiempo en el Atlántico y el noreste como Sandy llega a la costa.Advertencias de tormenta tropical está en efecto desde el norte de Surf City a Duck, Carolina del Norte, incluyendo Pamlico y Albemarle Sounds. Las advertencias generalizadas vientos fuertes se extienden desde Virginia hasta Maine y hacia el oeste en Ohio, con recomendaciones de los vientos desde Michigan hasta Georgia.Los preparativos para proteger la vida y la propiedad debe ser completado ya, y si no ha evacuado, lo más probable es demasiado tarde para hacerlo. Tormenta tropical ráfagas de viento de fuerza ya se están sintiendo por el norte hasta el sureste de Long Island y Nueva Inglaterra. Los vientos huracanados son probablemente esta noche a partir de Chincoteague, Virginia, en Chatham, Massachusetts, incluyendo Delaware Bay, Nueva York y Long Island.Efectos Sandy `s sólo va a crecer y empeorar a través de la muy poblada de la Interestatal 95 en el corredor noreste y del Atlántico medio de hoy y de mañana. Para la información más actualizada, haga clic aquí.Hasta las 2 pm hora del este, el huracán Sandy tuvo su epicentro cerca 38,3 N y W 73,1, o 110 kilómetros al sureste de Atlantic City, Nueva Jersey, y 175 kilómetros al sur-sureste de New York City. Sus vientos máximos sostenidos son de 90 kilómetros por hora, convirtiéndolo en un huracán de categoría uno en la escala Saffir-Simpson. Sandy se desplazaba hacia el noroeste a 28 kilómetros por hora y su presión mínima central ha descendido de nuevo a 940 mb, o 27,76 pulgadas de mercurio.Huracán Sandy se mantiene fuerte a su paso por la Corriente del Golfo, y se espera que se mantenga como un huracán que se dobla hacia el noroeste. Esto pondrá al centro en un camino para bajar a tierra cerca o justo al sur de Atlantic City, NJ medida que se acerca la línea de costa, que finalmente pierde sus características tropicales, convirtiéndose en un sistema de baja presión extremadamente fuerte.La lenta transición a una baja no tropical ha permitido que los vientos se extienden desde el centro, y es lo que hace tan peligroso arena. Sus vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden 175 millas del centro de la tormenta `s la circulación y vientos de tormenta tropical hasta 485 kilómetros del centro de la arena` s. Esto hace que una arena de las mayores tormentas de la historia. Como resultado, el impacto de arena `s será de gran envergadura, con vientos dañinos a través de todo el Atlántico Medio y el noreste, e incluso hacia el oeste hasta el área de Chicago. Es imprescindible controlar la tormenta entera, no sólo de su centro.

More on this from Weatherbug (link)

French:

Puissant Sandy poussoir Faire final vers la mi-Atlantique
MISE À JOUR 14:00 HAE, Octobre 29, 2012
Mis à jour par WeatherBug météorologue, Camion Seth

Agrandir

Dangereux ouragan de sable reste puissant comme il se déplace vers la côte de l’Atlantique cet après-midi. Landfall est prévu le long de la côte sud du New Jersey tôt ce soir. Produisant des vents destructeurs pannes d’électricité massives, des ondes de tempête mortelle et l’intérieur des terres des inondations et des vents d’ouragan côtières sont tous sur le menu météo pour le Mid-Atlantic et le nord de Sandy débarque.

Avis de tempête tropicale sont en vigueur depuis le nord de Surf City Duck, Caroline du Nord, y compris Pamlico et sons Albemarle. Répandues avertissements de vent élevées étirer de la Virginie au Maine et à l’ouest dans l’Ohio, avec Avis vent du Michigan à la Géorgie.

Les préparatifs pour protéger la vie et la propriété devrait être achevé déjà, et si vous n’avez pas évacué, il est probablement trop tard pour le faire. Tropical rafales de tempête force du vent se font déjà sentir aussi loin au nord que le sud-est de Long Island et la Nouvelle-Angleterre. Des ouragans sont susceptibles soir à partir de Chincoteague, en Virginie, à Chatham, Massachusetts, y compris la baie du Delaware, New York et Long Island.

Effets Sandy `s ne fera que croître et empirer dans le très peuplée de l’Interstate 95 dans le couloir Nord-Est et Mid-Atlantic aujourd’hui et de demain. Pour l’information la plus à jour, cliquez ici.

Au 2 h HAE, l’ouragan de sable a été centrée près de 38,3 N et 73,1 W, ou 110 miles au sud-est de Atlantic City, New Jersey, et à 175 miles au sud-sud-est de New York. Ses premiers vents soutenus sont de 90 mph, ce qui en fait un ouragan de catégorie un sur l’échelle de Saffir-Simpson Vent ouragan. Sandy se déplace au nord-ouest à 28 mph et sa pression centrale minimale a chuté de nouveau à 940 mb, ou 27,76 pouces de mercure.

L’ouragan de sable reste forte qu’elle passe au-dessus du Gulf Stream, et il devrait rester un ouragan comme il se plie au nord-ouest. Cela mettra le centre sur un chemin de descendre à terre à proximité ou juste au sud d’Atlantic City, NJ À l’approche de la côte, il finira par perdre ses caractéristiques tropicales, devenant ainsi un système de pression extrêmement forte à faible.

La lente transition vers une faible non-tropical a permis aux vents de se propager à partir du centre, et c’est ce qui rend si dangereux de sable. Ses vents de force ouragan s’étendent 175 miles du centre de la tempête `s la circulation et tropicales vents de force tempête jusqu’à 485 miles du centre de sable` s. Cela fait un sable des plus grandes tempêtes de l’histoire. En conséquence, l’impact de sable s `est de grande envergure, avec des vents destructeurs à travers l’ensemble du littoral de l’Atlantique et du Nord, et même aussi loin à l’ouest que la région de Chicago. Il est impératif de surveiller la tempête, et non seulement son centre.

»

More on this from Weatherbug (link)

Press:

26 Oct 2012:

Sandy has left 21 dead, is likely to merge into #Frankenstorm, ravage New England.

(CNN) — No one hopes Hurricane Sandy lives up to its potential.

The storm that has already claimed nearly two dozen lives in the Caribbean churned Friday near northern Bahamas, and meteorologists warn that it packs the potential to slam the Northeastern United States as soon as Monday with powerful winds, pelting rain and cold temperatures.

Worst case, Sandy could merge with a strong cold front from the west. The double threat could morph into a “superstorm” that could sit over New England for days, making untold trouble for millions of residents. Weather experts said it’s a recipe not unlike 1991’s “Perfect Storm.”

At 11 a.m. ET Friday, forecasters said Sandy is losing shape and is a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 80 mph. But it’s not to be taken lightly.

Keep a hurricane preparation checklist

Hurricane Sandy ‘storm of a lifetime’
Hurricane Sandy hits Jamaica

“Forget about the category with this,” said CNN meteorologist Rob Marciano. “When you have trees with leaves on them still, this kind of wind and rain on top of that, you’re talking about trees that are going to come down, power lines are going to be out and the coastal flooding situation is going to be huge.”

Sandy’s death toll in Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba this week was 21 people.

The U.S. target area is hard to predict at this point. Some landfall computer models show the storm striking somewhere between Washington and Boston — some of the most densely populated areas of the country.

U.S. residents in those areas, forecasters said, should prepare for the possibility of several days without power.

“There is potential for widespread power outages, not just for a couple of days but for a couple of weeks or more, if the storm stays on track,” said meteorologist Kathy Orr of CNN affiliate KYW-TV in Philadelphia.

Sandy could be a storm “of historic proportion,” she warns, and the City of Brotherly Love could take a direct hit.

“This could be like the ‘Perfect Storm’ 21 years ago,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Meyers.

A combination of three weather systems produced the famed “Perfect Storm” in the north Atlantic over Halloween 1991 when moisture flung north by Hurricane Grace combined with a high pressure system and a cold front, according to the weather service.

Hurricane safety: When the lights go out

The current weather conditions are not exactly the same as what produced the 1991 tempest. Although Grace contributed significantly to the storm, it did not progress to New England and did not make landfall, weather records show.

On Friday, residents in South Jersey were alreadystocking up on batteries and bottled water, and hardware stores have put up preparedness displays, KYW reported. One location quickly sold out of electric generators.

“This is the worst timing for a storm,” Newark Mayor Cory Booker told CNN’s Soledad O’Brien. “You have fall ending, a lot of loose branches.

“The storm itself will be bad, but I worry about the aftermath, people being caught without power.”

Along the Jersey shore, storm preparations included bulldozers shoring up piers with mounds of sand. Worried residents filled sandbags in case of flooding.

“We will be piling up as much sand as possible along the beachfront,” said Frank Ricciotti, Margate, New Jersey, public works director. “I think the water damage is worse than another type of damage, and the hardest thing is to stop water, once it starts coming up.”

With a national election already under way in many early voting states, Sandy’s wrath also could have a ripple effect on politics.

Bad weather in Maryland or Washington could make it harder for people to get out and cast their ballots at early voting locations. Early voting kicked off Monday in Washington and will start Saturday in Maryland.

“From Sunday through Wednesday, winds of hurricane force are expected to lash exposed areas of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states, leading to potentially serious coastal erosion and coastal flooding,” the National Hurricane Center reported.

The weather service also warns “the buildup of tides over multiple tidal cycles should exacerbate the situation.”

Stay well-fed in any disaster

29 Oct 2012: 

Sky News live updates

UPDATE 11:49AM (NZT): Reports of a building collapse on 8th Avenue. LIVE FDNY streaming here.

VIDEO: ABC 7 Eyewitness News New York LIVE coverage.

VIDEO: FOX 5 Live New York LIVE coverage.

AUDIO: Atlantic County and City Fire/EMS SCANNER FEED.

AUDIO: National Hurricane Center Skywarn Amateur radio feed.

AUDIO: NYPD Special Operations SCANNER feed from New York.

30 Oct 2012:

Watch CBS News LIVE online coverage about #Sandy aftermath here

Bloomberg has a live rooftop video camera stream in New York

The (Newark) Star-Ledger also has webcams set up along New Jersey beaches.

Quartz has rounded up links to webcams up and down the East Coast.

31 Oct 2012:

Sandy: Dramatic Footage Of Air Rescue

(Image: Sky News)
Sandy: Dramatic Footage Of Air Rescue

“Dramatic footage has been released of people being plucked from their flood-hit homes by helicopter  here (link to Sky News)

Video shows New York Police Department rescue teams loading people onto a helicopter winch to safety, as flood waters rose.”

“...At least 55 people died across the US and Canada, and many are still missing, including two boys aged two and four.

New York was the worst-hit city in the US.” – Sky News

9,000 people spent Tuesday (30 Oct) night in 171 Red Cross shelters in 13 states

Sandy Forces Cancellation of About 300 Blood Drives

“Those who are eligible in areas unaffected by the storm are asked to schedule a blood donation now.

Superstorm Sandy has already caused the cancellation of about 300 American Red Cross blood drives and more cancellations are expected as the storm continues to move to the west.

“Patients will still need blood despite the weather,” said Dr. Richard Benjamin, chief medical officer of the Red Cross. “To ensure a sufficient national blood supply is available for those in need, both during and after the storm passes, it is critical that those in unaffected areas make an appointment to donate blood as soon as possible.”

So far, the cancellations have resulted in a shortfall of more than 9,000 blood and platelet donations across 14 states that would otherwise be available for those needing transfusions. The situation may worsen as the storm continues to move and in its aftermath.

The Red Cross did move blood and blood products to those areas most likely to be affected by Sandy so that the blood needs of people in those communities could be met. However, the long- term impact of power outages and blood drive cancellations is expected to be significant.

SCHEDULE AN APPOINTMENT

Every two seconds, someone in the United States needs blood. An average of 44,000 blood donations are needed each and every day across the country to help treat accident victims, cancer patients, and children with blood disorders. These patients and others rely on blood products during their treatment. This need does not diminish when disaster strikes.

WHO CAN GIVE? All blood types are needed to ensure a reliable supply for patients. A blood donor card or driver’s license, or two other forms of identification are required at check-in. Individuals who are 17 years of age (16 with parental permission in some states), weigh at least 110 pounds and are generally in good health may be eligible to donate blood. High school students and other donors 18 years of age and younger also have to meet certain height and weight requirements.” – redcrossblood.org

Much media focus on the United States but don’t forget the Caribbean

“Jamaica

Sandy was the first direct hit by the eye of a hurricane on Jamaica since Hurricane Gilbert 24 years ago. The storm hit Jamaica as a category 1 hurricane. Extensive damage was reported on the island. Trees and power lines were snapped and shanty houses were heavily damaged, both from the winds and flooding rains. More than 100 fishermen were stranded in outlying Pedro Cays off Jamaica’s southern coast.[7] Stones falling from a hillside crushed one man to death as he tried to get into his house in a rural village near Kingston.[8] The country’s sole electricity provider, the Jamaica Public Service Company, reported that 70 percent of its customers were without power. Looters shot and wounded a police official as he led a group of officers through Craig Town, a section of West Kingston. More than 1,000 people went to shelters, the Office of Disaster Preparedness said. Jamaican authorities closed the island’s international airports, and police ordered 48-hour curfews in major towns to keep people off the streets and deter looting. Cruise ships changed their itineraries to avoid the storm, which made landfall the afternoon of October 24 near the capital, Kingston.[9]

The day after the storm, government officials went on an aerial tour of the rural eastern areas of the island. Parliament member Daryl Vaz reported that most buildings had lost their roofs, in addition to widespread damage to banana crops. Approximately 70 percent of the island lost power because of Sandy, and schools in the Kingston area would likely remain closed for a week. Resorts in Montego Bay and Negril sustained no major damage, and cruise ship terminals reopened to vessels after a 24-hour suspension of services. Authorities warned that the extent of the damage is not clear, since some major roads remained impassable, and it would likely be weeks before life in most areas returned to normal.[10] Damage totaled $16.5 million throughout the country.[11]

Haiti

In Haiti, which was still recovering from both the 2010 earthquake and the ongoing cholera outbreak, at least 52 people have died,[12] and an estimated 200,000 were left homeless as of October 29, as a result of four days of ongoing rain from Hurricane Sandy.[13] Reports of significant damage to Port-Salut were received as rivers overflowed their banks.[14] In the capital of Port-au-Prince whole streets were flooded by the heavy rains and “the whole south of the country is underwater”.[15] Most of the tents and buildings in the city’s sprawling refugee camps and the CitĂ© Soleil neighborhood were flooded or leaking, a repeat of what happened earlier in the year during the passage of Hurricane Isaac.[10] The United Nations warned that flooding and unsanitary conditions could lead to a cholera epidemic once again two years after a cholera epidemic in 2010 sickened 600,000 people and killed more than 7,400. In addition, crops were also wiped out by the storm” and the country would be making an appeal for emergency aid.[16]

Dominican Republic

In the Dominican Republic two people were killed and 8,755 people evacuated as officials said the rains were expected to continue until at least October 27.[17][18] Travelling by vehicle was very hard in places as some roads had high water levels. An employee of CNN estimated 70% of the streets in Santo Domingo were flooded. Some cars were underwater, and people with trucks were charging motorists $5 to pull their vehicles out, while others were doing it for free.[19]

Cuba

Hurricane Sandy damage in Guantanamo Bay

Hurricane Sandy strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane before hitting Cuba.[20] At least 55,000 people had been evacuated principally because of expected flooding from rains that could total up to 20 inches (500 mm) in some places and a storm surge the Cuban weather service said was already beginning along the southeastern coast around midnight EDT.[21] Sandy made landfall just west of Santiago de Cuba, the country’s second-largest city, as a strong Category 2 hurricane, with the strong eastern eyewall passing directly over the city.[22][23] The eye of the storm came ashore just west of the city with waves up to 29 feet (9 meters) and a six-foot (2 meter) storm surge that caused extensive coastal flooding.[24]

Reports from the area after the passage of Sandy spoke of widespread damage, particularly to Santiago de Cuba. Throughout the province, 132,733 homes were damaged, of which 15,322 were destroyed and 43,426 lost their roof.[25] Electricity and water services had been knocked out, and most of the trees in the city had either been ripped off their roots or had lost all their leaves. Several Cuban provinces promised to send brigades to help Santiago recover, although officials gave a long list of other towns that suffered devastation. Guantánamo followed a similar fate to Santiago, with television showing telephone poles and cables down across the city. Several historic buildings in the center of town were reportedly damaged.[citation needed] Total losses throughout Santiago de Cuba province reached CUP2.1 billion (US$80 million).[25]

State media has said at least 11 people in Cuba were killed as a result of the storm, and Raúl Castro planned to visit Santiago de Cuba in the coming days. Nine of the deaths were in Santiago de Cuba Province and two were in Guantánamo Province and most of the victims were trapped in destroyed houses.[26][27] This makes Sandy the deadliest hurricane to hit Cuba since 2005, when Hurricane Dennis killed 16 people.[28]

Damage to the U.S. Guantanamo Bay Naval Base was not as severe, and there were no reports of injuries at the base. The highest sustained winds were below hurricane strength at 54 miles per hour (87 km/h), with a maximum gust of 66 miles per hour (106 km/h). The storm damaged roofs and windows in a few older buildings and tore some of the power cables within the facility. Several recreational boats broke off their moorings, but there was no damage to the prison, according to Navy Capt. Robert Durand.[29]

Puerto Rico

Police said a man was killed on October 26 in Juana Diaz. He was swept away in a river swollen by rain from Sandy’s outer bands. In addition, flooding forced at least 100 families in the southwest to seek new shelter.[30] “

– Extract from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Sandy_in_the_Greater_Antilles

LESLIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND – Updated 11 Sept 2012 1526Z

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Leslie 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

(Image: weatheroffice.gc.ca)
Leslie Track Information
(Click image for animation/source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com)
Post-Tropical Cyclone LESLIE
Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

 

 

WTNT32 KNHC 111439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

…LESLIE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM NEWFOUNDLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…49.4N 53.6W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM NNW OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 45 MPH…72 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH…72 KH/HR…AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES…555 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB…28.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY.  THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL…RAINS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

En français :

WTNT32 KNHC 111439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN DE
CYCLONE POST-TROPICALE LESLIE CONSULTATIF NUMÉRO 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 SUIS AST TUE SEP 11 2012

…LESLIE DEVIENT UN CYCLONE POST-TROPICALE EN TANT QU’IL COMMENCE À S’EN ÉLOIGNER
DE TERRE-NEUVE…

RÉSUMÉ DE 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC… INFORMATION
———————————————–
EMPLACEMENT…49.4N 53.6W
ENVIRON 130 MI…210 KM NNO DE ST. JOHNS, TERRE-NEUVE
VENTS MAXIMUMS SOUTENUS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
MOUVEMENT ACTUEL…NNE OU 30 DEGRÉS À 45 MI/H…72 KM/H
PRESSION MINIMALE AU CENTRE…968 MO…28.59 POUCES

VEILLES ET AVERTISSEMENTS
——————–
CHANGEMENTS AVEC CET AVIS…

AUCUN.

RÉSUMÉ DES VEILLES ET DES AVERTISSEMENTS EN VIGUEUR…

UNE VEILLE D’OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR…
* TERRE-NEUVE DE PIERRES COVE À CHARLOTTETOWN

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR…
* TERRE-NEUVE DU PORT INDIEN DE TRITON

POUR TEMPÊTE D’INFORMATIONS SPÉCIFIQUE À VOTRE RÉGION…VEUILLEZ SURVEILLER
PRODUITS ÉMIS PAR LE CENTRE CANADIEN DE L’OURAGAN.

DISCUSSION ET PERSPECTIVES DE 48 HEURES
——————————
1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…LE CYCLONE CENTRE DE POST-TROPICALE
LESLIE ÉTAIT SITUÉE PRÈS DE NORTH LATITUDE 49,4…53,6 DE LONGITUDE OUEST.
LE CYCLONE POST-TROPICALE SE DÉPLACE VERS AU NORD-EST À 45
MPH…72 KH/H…ET UN TOUR AU NORD-EST ET À L’ENE EST
PRÉVUE DURANT LE JOUR SUIVANT OU.

LES VENTS MAXIMUMS SOUTENUS SONT PRÈS DE 70 MI/H…110 KM/H….AVEC PLUS
RAFALES. CE SYSTÈME DEVRAIT DEMEURER UNE FORTE POST-TROPICALE
CYCLONE POUR LE LENDEMAIN OU DEUX.

LES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE S’ÉTENDENT VERS L’EXTÉRIEUR JUSQU’À 345 MILLES…555 KM
PARTIR DU CENTRE.

MINIMUM ESTIMÉ LA PRESSION CENTRALE EST DE 968 MO…28.59 POUCES.

RISQUES TOUCHANT TERRE
———————-
VENT…VENTS DE FORCE TEMPÊTE-TROPICAL SERONT POURSUIVRA AU COURS DE L’EST
NEWFOUNDLAND À TRAVERS CET APRÈS-MIDI MAIS COMMENCERA PROGRESSIVEMENT À
S’AFFAISSER.

SURF…HOULE GÉNÉRÉE PAR LESLIE CONTINUERA À AFFECTER L’ATLANTIQUE
CANADA AUJOURD’HUI. CES HOULES POURRAIENT CAUSER Le MORTELLES SURF ET
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. VEUILLEZ CONSULTER LES PRODUITS DE VOTRE SECTION LOCALE
BUREAU MÉTÉOROLOGIQUE POUR PLUS D’INFORMATIONS.

PLUIE…PLUIES DIMINUE PROGRESSIVEMENT AU COURS DE LA JOURNÉE.

AVIS AUX PROCHAINES
————-
C’EST LE DERNIER AVIS PUBLIC ÉMIS PAR LE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTRE SUR CE SYSTÈME. DES INFORMATIONS SUPPLÉMENTAIRES SUR CE SYSTÈME PEUVENT ÊTRE
TROUVÉ EN HAUTE MER PRÉVISIONS ÉMISES PAR LA MÉTÉO NATIONALE
SERVICE…SOUS L’EN-TÊTE DE AWIPS NFDHSFAT1 ET FZNT01 DE L’EN-TÊTE DE L’OMM KWBC.

$$
PRÉVISIONNISTE AVILA

WOCN31 CWHX 111145
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 9:15 AM ADT Tuesday
11 September 2012.
———————————————————————
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Labrador
      Newfoundland
      Nova Scotia.

      For post-tropical storm Leslie.

      The next intermediate statement will be issued at 12:00 PM ADT.
      Followed by the next full statement issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

      Leslie made landfall near Fortune on the Burin Peninsula and
      Still packing a Wallop.

———————————————————————
Tropical cyclone information statement ended for:
Prince Edward Island.

———————————————————————
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 AM ADT.

Location: near 47.6 north 54.8 west.

About 60 kilometres north of Fortune, nl.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/hour.

Present movement: north-northeast near 65 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 969 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect for parts
of southern and Eastern Newfoundland being directly affected by
post-tropical storm Leslie this morning.  Rainfall warnings are in
effect all of Newfoundland but the southeast.

The centre of Leslie made landfall on the Southern Burin Peninsula
near the town of Fortune at 8:30 AM NDT.  It should be kept in mind
that this is a large system with widespread impacts and the exact
landfall point isn’t that important.  Rain bands extend well
northward and to the west of Leslie and are currently giving very
heavy rainfall rates on the order of 25 millimetres per hour to parts
of the Burin Peninsula and points north.  Current observation show
amounts in excess of 60 millimetres over parts of Western
Newfoundland with significantly more expected for Central and Western
Newfoundland.  Southeast winds are strengthening rapidly ahead and
east of Leslie.  St. John’s international airport is currently
showing sustained storm force winds of 90 km/h gusting to near
hurricane force at 131 km/h; Long Pond had a gust to hurricane force
at 124 km/h; Cape Race recently reported a wind gust to 100 km/h;
Argentia has gusted to 120 km/h; Winterland and St. Lawrence on the
Burin Peninsula recently reported a wind gust to 83 and 95 km/h
respectively.  A private weather station at cape pine on the Southern
Avalon recently reported a hurricane force wind gust of 137 km/h.

Much-smaller hurricane Michael has just been downgraded to a tropical
storm.  It is well to the south of Leslie and is not expected to have
any impact on the region.  It has been bypassed by Leslie’s large
circulation and will dissipate as it passes east of the Grand Banks
over the next day or two.

A. Wind.

A 2:00 AM ADT report from an offshore buoy very near the centre of
Leslie reported sustained winds of 85 km/h and a wind gust of
115 km/h, and at 7 AM ADT the smart bay buoy in Placentia Bay showed
78 km/h gusting to 100.  This combined with the many high winds at
shore stations already mentioned support sustained marginal hurricane
windspeeds east of the storm centre with higher gusts.

Leslie has a huge wind circulation with strong and gusty
northwesterly winds affecting most of the Maritimes today.
The strongest winds from Leslie are confined to Eastern Newfoundland
in areas 100 to 300 kilometres to the right of the track, where
southerly winds of 80 gusting to 120+ km/h are occurring.
Northwesterly winds behind Leslie are not expected to be quite as
strong at this time but gusts to 90 or 100 km/h are possible for
parts of western and Northern Newfoundland.  In Nova Scotia the
strongest winds behind the storm will be over Cape Breton where gusts
to 80 km/h are expected this morning.

Wind impacts include the some tree damage amd minor damage to some
structuresn, especially over Eastern Newfoundland with wind gusts
over 120 km/h.  This will continue lead to downed utility lines and
some property damage.

B. Rainfall.

The slow-moving frontal system has already drenched parts of Nova
Scotia, pei and Western Newfoundland, with some areas already
receiving well in excess of 100 millimetres.  The highest amounts
currently reported for Newfoundland are in to 40 to 60 millimetres
range for Western Newfoundland, with more expected.  Computer models
and experience with these merging tropical systems in the past show
that event-total rainfall of 150 millimetres, with locally even
higher amounts possible before the rain pulls out of Newfoundland
during theday Tuesday.  The location of the heaviest rainfall will be
in the areas west of Leslie’s track and where its moisture interacts
strongest with the trough, which for now includes Central and Western
Newfoundland.

Rainfall impacts from this storm include the possibility of street
flooding, property erosion and road and bridge washouts.  Hazards for
motorists include reduced visibilities, hydroplaning, flooded
sections of road, and possible compromised roadbeds and bridges.

C. Surge/waves.

And increasing there has been some surge accompanying Leslie’s
arrival this morning but the coincident low tides along the south
coast have kept water levels fairly moderate.

Large long period waves are occurring over Southern Newfoundland and
near the east coast.  Waves of 4-7 metres are forecast for the
southwest coast of Newfoundland increasing to 8-12 metres for the
Placentia Bay area then diminishing to 5 to 8 metres east of the
Avalon Peninsula.  Wave in excess of 10 metres have already occurred
on Placentia Bay.  These wave should diminish by afternoon along the
south coast and Placentia Bay, but will persist until later in the
afternoon or into the evening for the east coast.

These heavy pounding waves will lead to elevated waters levels and
some coastal erosion and the possibility of localized flooding in
exposed or vulnerable areas especially from Fortune east to Cape
Race.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for Newfoundland marine
waters to the east of the track.  Storm and gale warnings are in
effect for adjacent waters in Newfoundland and eastern Maritimes
waters.  Details can be found in the latest marine forecasts issued
from the Atlantic storm prediction center and the Newfoundland and
Labrador weather office.

Coastal impacts include possible damage to docks and wave overwash in
prone areas around the Southern Avalon, Placentia Bay and the Burin
Peninsula.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

– forecast position, central pressure table.

– strength and predicted wind radii table.

– hurricane track information map.

– technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/MERCER/FOGARTY

En français :

WOCN41 CWHX 111145
Cyclone tropical information Déclaration mise à jour par le canadien
Centre de prévision d’ouragan d’Environnement Canada à 09:15 mardi
11 Septembre 2012.
———————————————————————
Cyclone tropical déclaration de renseignements pour :
Labrador
Newfoundland
La Nouvelle-Écosse.

Pour la tempête post-tropicale Leslie.

La prochaine déclaration intermédiaire sera délivrée à 12:00 ADT.
Suivie de la prochaine déclaration complète de 15:00 ADT.

Leslie a touché terre près de Fortune sur la péninsule de Burin et
Encore emballer un Wallop.

———————————————————————
Cyclone tropical information état terminé pour :
Île du Prince Édouard.

———————————————————————
== discussion ==
1. Résumé des informations de base à 9 h 00 AM ADT.

Lieu : près de 47,6 54,8 Nord-Ouest.

Environ 60 kilomètres au nord de Fortune, nl.

Maximale soutenue des vents : 120 km/heure.

Présenter le mouvement : direction près de 65 km/h.

Pression minimale au Centre : 969 MB.

2. Public météo sur les impacts et résumé des avertissements.

Avertissements de tempête tropicale et ouragan montres sont en vigueur pour les parties
du Sud et l’est de Terre-Neuve sont directement touchés par
tempête post-tropicale Leslie ce matin. Les avertissements de pluie sont en
effet tous de Terre-Neuve mais le sud-est.

Le centre de Leslie a touché terre dans le sud de la péninsule Burin
près de la ville de Fortune à 08:30 Hat. Il doit garder à l’esprit
qu’il s’agit d’un grand système avec impacts généralisées et l’exacte
point de folie n’est pas important. Bandes de pluie s’étend bien
vers le Nord et à l’ouest de Leslie et sont actuellement en donnant très
taux de fortes pluies sur l’ordre de 25 millimètres par heure pour pièces
de la péninsule de Burin et le Nord. Salon d’observation actuelle
montants excédant 60 millimètres sur les parties de l’ouest
Terre-Neuve avec significativement plus attendue pour centrale et ouest
Terre-Neuve. Vents du sud-est sont rapidement à venir renforcer et
nord-est de Leslie. Aéroport international de St. John’s est actuellement
tempête soutenue montrant la force des vents de 90 km/h avec des rafales à près de
force d’ouragan à 131 km/h ; Étang long avait une rafale de force d’ouragan
à 124 km/h ; Cape Race a récemment rapporté une rafale de vent à 100 km/h ;
Argentia a rafales de 120 km/h ; Winterland et Saint-Laurent sur la
La péninsule Burin a récemment rapporté une rafale de vent à 83 et 95 km/h
respectivement. Une station météo privée à pin Cap sur le sud
Avalon a récemment rapporté une rafale de vent de force ouragan de 137 km/h.

Très petit ouragan Michael a juste été déclassé pour un tropical
tempête. Il est bien au sud de Leslie et ne devrait pas avoir
aucun impact sur la région. Il a été contourné par Leslie grand
circulation et dissipera qu’il passe à l’est des grands bancs
au cours de la prochaine journée ou deux.

A. vent.

Un rapport ADT 02:00 par une bouée au large des côtes très près du centre de
Leslie a signalé des vents soutenus de 85 km/h et une rafale de vent de
115 km/h, et 7 HAA la bouée baie intelligente dans la baie de plaisance ont montré
78 km/h avec des rafales à 100. Ceci combiné avec les vents forts nombreux à
stations côtières déjà mentionné ouragan marginal soutenue de soutien
vent à l’est du centre de la tempête avec des rafales plus élevées.

Leslie a une circulation vent énorme avec fort et irrégulier
vents du Nord-Ouest qui touchent la plupart des Maritimes aujourd’hui.
Les plus forts vents de Leslie se limitent à l’est de Terre-Neuve
de 100 à 300 kilomètres à droite de la piste, les zones où
les vents du sud de 80 noeuds avec des rafales à 120++ km/h sont produisent.
Vents du Nord-Ouest derrière Leslie ne devraient pas être tout à fait aussi
forte à cette époque mais les rafales à 90 ou 100 km/h sont possibles pour les
certaines parties de l’Ouest et du Nord de Terre-Neuve. En Nouvelle-Écosse le
des vents plus forts derrière la tempête sera au Cap-Breton où rafales
à 80 km/h sont attendus ce matin.

Les effets de vent incluent les quelques arbres dommages amd dommages mineurs à certains
structuresn, tout particulièrement à l’est de Terre-Neuve avec des rafales de vent
plus de 120 km/h. Cela continuera de plomb de cables au sol et
certains dommages à la propriété.
B. pluie.

Le système frontal lent a déjà saturées de parties de Nova
Nouvelle-Écosse, l’île et ouest de Terre-Neuve, avec certains secteurs déjà
recevoir bien plus de 100 millimètres. Les montants plus élevés
actuellement déclarées pour Newfoundland sont de 40 à 60 millimètres
gamme pour l’ouest de Terre-Neuve, avec les plus attendus. Modèles informatiques
et de l’expérience avec les systèmes tropicaux dans le dernier spectacle de fusion
Cet événement-total précipitations de 150 millimètres, avec localement même
quantités plus élevées possibles avant que la pluie se retire de la Newfoundland
au cours de l’attrait mardi. L’emplacement des précipitations plus lourde sera
dans les zones à l’ouest de la piste de Leslie et où son humidité interagit
plus forte avec la fosse, qui comprend la centrale et ouest
Terre-Neuve.

Les impacts des précipitations de cette tempête incluent la possibilité de la rue
inondations, érosion de la propriété et lavages de routes et de ponts. Dangers pour
les automobilistes comprennent la visibilité réduite, aquaplanage, inondée
sections de la route, et possible compromis plates-formes des routes et des ponts.

C. surge et vagues.

Et augmentant il y a eu certaines ondes accompagnement Leslie
arrivée ce matin mais les marées coïncide le long du Sud
côte ont gardé des niveaux d’eau assez modéré.

Grosses vagues de longue périodes sont produisent au sud de Terre-Neuve et
près de la côte est. Des vagues de 4 à 7 m sont prévues pour la
côte sud-ouest de Terre-Neuve à 8-12 mètres pour les
Région de la baie Placentia puis diminuant de 5 à 8 mètres est de la
La péninsule d’Avalon. Onde supérieure à 10 mètres ont déjà eu lieu
sur la baie de plaisance. Ces ondes devrait diminuer en après-midi le long de la
côte sud et la baie de plaisance, mais persistent jusqu’au plus tard dans les
après-midi ou en soirée pour la côte est.

Ces lourds martèlement des vagues conduira à des niveaux élevés d’eaux et
certains l’érosion côtière et la possibilité d’inondations localisées dans
zones exposées ou vulnérables surtout de l’est de la Fortune à Cap
Course.

3. Marine météo sur les impacts et résumé des avertissements.

Avertissements de vents de force ouragan sont en vigueur pour la marine de la Newfoundland
eaux à l’est de la piste. Les avertissements de tempête et gale sont dans
effet des eaux adjacentes à Terre-Neuve et Maritimes de l’est
eaux. Plus de détails se trouvent dans les dernières prévisions marines délivrées
de l’Atlantique storm prediction center et la Terre-Neuve et
Bureau météorologique de Labrador.

Impacts côtiers comprennent les dommages possibles aux quais et submersion dans les vagues
régions sujettes à autour de l’Avalon du Sud, la baie de plaisance et le Burin
Péninsule.

Visitez le Bureau météorologique.Gc.ca/Hurricane (tout en minuscules) pour la
plus récents :

-prévision de position, tableau de pression centrale.

-Force et tableau de prévisions de vent rayons.

-Ouragan sur piste renseignements sur la carte.

-discussion technique.

Veuillez également consulter les prévisions publiques et marines et avertissements
émises par Environnement Canada pour votre région.

FIN/MERCER/FOGARTY

 

Newfoundland Power: STAY AWAY from trees and downed power lines. Power lines should be considered “live” and extremely dangerous. Do not try to move.

WWCN16 CWHX 111324
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:54 AM NDT TUESDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND...

WIND WARNING FOR:
      ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
      AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
      CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA PENINSULA
      TERRA NOVA
      BONAVISTA NORTH
      BAY OF EXPLOITS
      BURIN PENINSULA
      CONNAIGRE
      BURGEO - RAMEA.

      WIND GUSTS OF 120 TO 140 KM/HOUR ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
      PASSAGE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

      THIS IS A WARNING THAT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE OCCURRING
      IN THESE REGIONS.  MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR
      UPDATED STATEMENTS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
      ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
      AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
      CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA PENINSULA
      TERRA NOVA
      BONAVISTA NORTH
      BAY OF EXPLOITS
      BURIN PENINSULA
      CONNAIGRE
      BURGEO - RAMEA.

      TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

      A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
      63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
      HOURS.  BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
      LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
      ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
      AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
      CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA PENINSULA
      BURIN PENINSULA.

      POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HURRICANE CONDITIONS TODAY.

      A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT
      HURRICANE CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
      AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS ENDED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND...

RAINFALL WARNING ENDED FOR:
      TERRA NOVA
      GANDER AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA NORTH
      BAY OF EXPLOITS
      GREEN BAY - WHITE BAY
      GRAND FALLS-WINDSOR AND VICINITY
      BUCHANS AND THE INTERIOR
      CONNAIGRE
      BURGEO - RAMEA
      CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES AND VICINITY
      BAY ST. GEORGE
      CORNER BROOK AND VICINITY
      DEER LAKE - HUMBER VALLEY
      GROS MORNE
      PARSON'S POND - HAWKE'S BAY
      PORT SAUNDERS AND THE STRAITS
      NORTHERN PENINSULA EAST.

      RAIN HAS EASED OR ENDED.  SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ARE
      NOT EXPECTED.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 1100 AM NDT POST-TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND.  LESLIE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA THIS
AFTERNOON.  STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 120 TO 140 KM/H
EAST OF LESLIE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
BEHIND LESLIE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 100 KM/H WILL
DEVELOP.

AS WELL LARGE WAVES AND POUNDING SURF ARE EXPECTED ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST POSITION AND TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/..

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2012 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm LESLIE (AL12) currently located near 49.4 N 53.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Greenland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Iceland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 45 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Atlantique N: Tempête Alerte émise à 11 Sep, 2012 15:00 GMT (dernier avertissement)

Tempête tropicale LESLIE (AL12) actuellement situé près de 49,4 n 53,6 w est prévu pour frapper la terre à la likelihood(s) suivante le time (s) de plomb donné :
Country(s) alerte rouge ou province
Canada
probabilité de CAT 1 ou supérieur est actuellement de 35 %
probabilité de TS est 100 % actuellement

Country(s) alerte jaune ou province
Groenland
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 21 heures
Islande
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 45 heures
les îles Féroé
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Écosse
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Irlande
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Irlande du Nord
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Angleterre
probabilité de TS est de 70 % à environ 69 heures
l’île de Man
probabilité de TS est de 65 % à environ 69 heures
City(s) d’alerte jaune et Town(s)
Grand-Sault (48,6 N, 55,4 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % actuellement
De Saint-Jean (47,6 N, 52,7 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % actuellement
Tórshavn (62,0 N, 6,8 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Stornoway (58,3 N, 6,4 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Ullapool (58,0 N, 5.2 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Kirkwall (59,0 N, 3,0 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Mèche (58,5 N, 3.1 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Portree (57,5 N, 6.2 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Oban (56,3 N, 5,5 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Reykjavik (64,1 N, 21,9 W)
probabilité de TS est de 90 % à environ 45 heures
Lerwick (60.2 N, 1,2 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Aberdeen (57,2 N, 2.1 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Dundee (56,5 N, 3,0 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Glasgow (55,9 N, 4.3 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Ardara (54,8 N, 8,4 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Édimbourg (55,8 N, 3.1 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Stranraer (55,0 N, 5.0 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Belfast (54,6 N, 5,9 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Sligo (54,3 N, 8,4 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Belmullet (54.2 N, 10,0 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Workington (54,6 N, 3.4 W)
probabilité de TS est de 65 % à environ 69 heures
Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
probabilité de TS est de 65 % à environ 69 heures
Dublin (53.3 N, 6,3 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 60 % à environ 69 heures
Newcastle (55,0 N, 1,6 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 55 % à environ 69 heures
Holyhead (53.3 N, 4,5 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 55 % à environ 69 heures

Notez que
Red Alert (sévère) est CAT 1 ou supérieur à entre 31 % et 100 % de probabilité.
Alerte jaune (élevée) est CAT 1 ou supérieur à entre 10 % et 30 % de probabilité, ou TS à au-dessus de 50 % de probabilité.
CAT 1 signifie que les vents de force ouragan au moins 74 mph, 119 km/h ou 1 min 64 nœuds soutenue.
TS signifie vents de force tempête tropicale au moins 39 mi/h, 63 km/h ou 1 min 34 nœuds soutenue.

Pour information prévision graphique et de plus amples renseignements, veuillez visiter http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

In Bermuda….
Hotels get ready for Leslie
Elbow Beach sees tourists cancel holidays

By Elizabeth Roberts royalgazette.com

Hotels and businesses are busy getting ready for Tropical Storm Leslie, which could hit Bermuda as a Category 2 hurricane on Sunday.

Some venues have already experienced cancellations.

Sophie Dier, Director of Communications at the Elbow Beach Hotel on South Shore Road, Paget, said around a third of their bookings have been cancelled for this weekend due to the potential arrival of Tropical Storm Leslie.

“We were going to have 62 rooms occupied, but we have now had about 20 room cancellations, so to date we will now only have 42 rooms occupied,” she said.

“Our reservations team is expecting call volume to continue to increase regarding cancellations for this weekend as the storm moves closer.”

Ms Dier added: “Due to the potential threat to Bermuda, Elbow Beach is closely monitoring the path of Tropical Storm Leslie. The hotel has a comprehensive hurricane preparation plan and preliminary precautionary steps are already underway.

“The hotel’s risk management team is liaising with local authorities and continues with preparations for the storm’s arrival to ensure that all possible safety measures are in place.

“All South Shore beaches, including Elbow Beach, are closed to swimmers at this time and we are actively informing our guests of this for their safety. A red ‘no swimming’ flag has been posted at our beach entrance. Our hotel facilities and dining outlets will remain open for as long as possible, depending on the progress of the storm.”

The Mickey’s Bistro and Bar has been damaged by strong waves on the South Shore in the past.

Ms Dier said: “Mickey’s Beach Bistro and Bar will have all removable fixtures and fittings taken away and secured and will then be boarded up to prevent damage from the storm. This will allow us to reopen the restaurant as soon as possible once the storm has passed.”

David Dodwell Jr, resort manager at the The Reefs Hotel and Club on South Shore Road, Southampton, said: “We are in the process of preparing the property to make it as safe as possible during the storm, which will include securing outdoor furniture, etc over the next few days.

“We have not had many guests decide to leave early, as of yet, but we are of course offering as many options as possible to help in any way they need and are making preparations for the guests that do stay through the storm. We haven’t had any official meetings yet with guests, as it is still early, but have information posted on the storm and are answering questions as needed.”

John Harvey of the Bermuda Hotel Association said it is still gathering statistics from its members on the total number of cancellations and rebookings due to the storm.

“It’s still too early to tell but I’m sure those guests who intended to come to Bermuda this weekend are probably reconsidering their vacation and will shortly rebook. Those that are here will be discussing whether to leave as soon as possible,” he said.

However, he believes from past experience that others may decide to stick around and make the best of the storm.

“Some who are booked into central Hamilton hotels may rebook to those on the South Shore to enjoy the view,” he said.

Colonial Insurance said it was staying open until 6pm today and tomorrow so customers can ensure their home and motor insurance policies are up-to-date and adequate to cover any loss due to storm damage. People can call 296-3700 or go to their Reid Street office for help.

Joanne MacPhee, executive director of the Bermuda Chamber of Commerce advised members that a full meeting of the Emergency Measures Organisation, including Chamber representatives, will be held tomorrow.

She encouraged “all members directly involved in the sale of hurricane supplies and services, including our grocers, wholesalers and insurance partners” to note contact information for the Chamber so it can disseminate information to the public before, during, and after the storm.

She added: “Let’s hope this is all precautionary and we sail through Leslie unscathed.”

Isaac: Forecasters project the Pearl River to crest Monday at 19.5 feet, more than five feet above flood stage – Updated 02 Sept 2012 1447Z

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Five Day Track
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(Image: NOAA)
HPC QPF for Tropical Depression Isaac
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(Image: NWS NOAA)
Current Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Watches, warnings, and advisories in effect across much of the southern United States.
(Click on the map for details. Click reload or refresh to update the map)

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New Orleans/Baton Rouge Long Range Radar
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http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=dgx&product=N0R&loop=no

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NWS Jackson, MS Radar
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Short Range New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar
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Isaac Impacts

Enhanced Radar Mosaic Loop SE Sector

NHC Experimental Videocast Service

(Scroll down for video from Andros Island, Bahamas

wwltv.com

Posted on September 1, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Updated 01 Sept 2012 2103Z

(Image: wwltv.com)

Update 02 Sept 2012 1442Z:

Forecasters project the Pearl River to crest Monday at 19.5 feet, more than five feet above flood stage. That will result in “major flooding” of at least two subdivisions near the banks and threaten areas in the southeastern corner of the parish, according to the National Weather Service.

See: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/02/us/severe-weather/index.html

Flash Flood Warning

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

LAC103-022000-
/O.CON.KLIX.FF.W.0081.000000T0000Z-120902T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. TAMMANY LA-
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
EAST-CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH...

ST TAMMANY PARISH OFFICIALS HAVE DOWNGRADED THE MANDATORY EVACUATION
TO A VOLUNTARY EVACUTATION FOR RESIDENTS BETWEEN LOCK AND DAM NUMBER
2 AND LOCK AND DAM NUMBER ONE ON THE PEARL RIVER DIVERSION CANAL
ABOVE HICKORY.

THERE STILL REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BUT THE WATER LEVELS
WITHIN THE LOCKS HAVE BEEN LOWERED. INTERESTS IN THE AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND LISTEN TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM
PARISH OFFICIALS. ENGINEERS CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ASSESS THE
INTEGRITY OF THE STRUCTURE.

LAT...LON 3059 8981 3057 8981 3051 8976 3042 8974
      3042 8978 3047 8981 3051 8982 3054 8987
      3059 8987

$$

24/RR

Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
914 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...

THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON AFFECTING ST.
TAMMANY PARISH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-032014-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-120904T1330Z/
/CUSL1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120831T2300Z.120904T0730Z.NO/
914 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON.
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT  8:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.8 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE STAGE BY
  EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...TCHEFUNCTE CAMP GROUNDS WILL BE UNDER A FEW
  INCHES OF WATER. THE GOODBEE COMMUMUNITY IS THREATENED WITH
  FLOODING. WATER WILL INVADE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE`S PARKING LOT. VEHICLES
  MUST BE REMOVED TO HIGHER GROUND
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WATER WILL INVADE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE`S PARKING
  LOT. VEHICLES MUST BE REMOVED TO HIGHER GROUND
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...THE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE SOFTBALL FIELD WILL BE
  UNDER WATER. THE CAMP PARKING LOT IS THREATENED WITH FLOODING AND
  VEHICLES ARE ADVISED TO BE MOVED IF HIGHER RIVER STAGES ARE
  ANTICIPATED.

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...

THE BOGUE CHITTO RIVER AT FRANKLINTON AFFECTING WASHINGTON PARISH

THE BOGUE CHITTO RIVER NEAR BUSH AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY PARISH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-032136-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-120907T0900Z/
/BSHL1.3.ER.120831T0040Z.120902T1045Z.120907T0300Z.NR/
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BOGUE CHITTO RIVER NEAR BUSH.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.7 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
  THURSDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...HOMES NEAR THE RIVER ALONG LOUISIANA HIGHWAY
  21 WILL BE MODERATELY FLOODED. THE ACCESS ROAD UPSTREAM OF THE
  BRIDGE WILL REMAIN INUNDATED
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ON THE DOWNSTREAM
  SIDE OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY  21 NEAR THE BRIDGE WILL FLOOD. THE
  ACCESS ROAD UPSTREAM OF THE BRIDGE WILL REMAIN INUNDATED
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE ACCESS ROAD UPSTREAM OF THE BRIDGE WILL
  FLOOD. THE RIVER WILL LEAVE THE MAIN CHANNEL ON THE LEFT BANK BELOW
  THE BRIDGE FLOODING WOODLANDS ON EITHER SIDE OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY
  21
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...GRAVEL PITS UPSTREAM OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY 21
  WILL BEGIN TO OVERFLOW THREATENING PROPERTY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
  EITHER SIDE OF HIGHWAY 21 IN THE VICINITY OF THE BRIDGE.

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...
HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...HANCOCK AND
PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-117-MSC045-109-032129-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BXAL1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120902T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREST AND REMAIN AT OR
  NEAR 21.0 FEET FROM NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE RIVER
  IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY FALLING THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
  INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS.
  AT 21 FEET PROPERTY EAST OF LOUISIANA HIGHWAY 21 ALONG BOGALUSA
  CREEK WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
  INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS
* IMPACT...AT 18.5 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
  INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
  WILL BE FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...WOODLANDS ALONG THE RIVER AND WILDLIFE
  MANAGEMENT PROPERTY WILL BE FLOODED.

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...
HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...HANCOCK AND
PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-MSC045-109-032129-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PERL1.3.ER.120831T0030Z.120904T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1029 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.7 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING UNTIL SLOWLY
  CRESTING AT AROUND 19.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER IS
  EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY FALLING THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...THERE WILL BE MAJOR FLOODING OF RIVER
  GARDENS AND MODERATE FLOODING OF LOWER PORTIONS IN MAGNOLIA FOREST
  SUBDIVISIONS. SUBDIVISIONS SOUTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF MILITARY ROAD
  WILL BE THREATENED WITH FLOODING. THE INDIAN VILLAGE ROAD ACCESS TO
  RIVER OAKS SUBDIVISION WILL BE UNDER WATER AT SEVERAL PLACES
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...RIVER GARDENS SUBDIVISION WILL BE MODERATELY
  FLOODED WITH SEVERAL STREETS IMPASSABLE AND A FEW HOMES FLOODED IN
  THE VICINITY OF GUM BAYOU. A FEW HOMES WILL ALSO BE THREATENED IN
  MAGNOLIA FOREST. SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND THROUGHOUT HONEY
  ISLAND SWAMP WILL REMAIN INUNDATED
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WATER ON LOW LYING PROPERTY AND OVER THE
  LOWER PORTIONS OF STREETS IN RIVER GARDENS SUBDIVISION WILL SLOWLY
  BEGIN TO DRAIN
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...LOWER PORTIONS OF STREETS IN RIVER GARDENS
  SUBDIVISION WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD. SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND
  THROUGHOUT HONEY ISLAND SWAMP WILL REMAIN INUNDATED. PROPERTY IN
  THE VICINITY OF THE GAGE IS FLOODED THREATENING ABOUT 20 HOMES
  ALONG THE LEFT BANK.  THE BOGUE CHITTO NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE
  WILL BE CLOSED TO HUNTING AT THE 15.5 FOOT STAGE
* IMPACT...AT 15.5 FEET...SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND THROUGHOUT
  HONEY ISLAND SWAMP ARE INUNDATED. PROPERTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
  GAGE IS FLOODED THREATENING ABOUT 20 HOMES ALONG THE LEFT BANK.
  THE BOGUE CHITTO NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE WILL BE CLOSED TO HUNTING
  AT THE 15.5 FOOT STAGE.

Update 02 Sept 2012 2010Z:

ST TAMMANY PARISH, LA (WLOX) – Officials in St. Tammany Parish in Louisiana say the danger of a lock failing on a Pearl River Canal has eased.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers worked overnight to stabilize the lock.

A mandatory evacuation is no longer in effect, for those Louisiana residents. However, officials are maintaining a voluntary evacuation status for people in hundreds of homes near Lock Number 2 on the canal.

Any potential danger from Lock Number 2 failing would not effect Mississippi, according to the National Weather Service.

wwltv.com:

Posted on September 1, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Updated today at 10:36 AM

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The Army Corps of Engineers is at the site on Lock 2. They were able to relieve the pressure by lowering the level of the water upstream to the to the lowest level possible. They are conducting tests to determine the structural integrity now. The evacuation is now voluntary.


Eyes in St. Tammany Parish are still honed in on the Pearl River.

A mandatory evacuation has been in place for most of the day along the Pearl River Diversion Canal because of an unstable lock holding back the river’s swollen waters due to Hurricane Isaac.

It was estimated that if water got around the lock, that it could reach a height of 11 feet.

A valve was opened to help relieve pressure and water was starting to get lower, but the Army Corps planned to stay on site and monitor the situation. The mandatory evacuation remained in place as of 10 p.m.

wspa.com UPDATE: August 31, 12:43 a.m.

Isaac Weakens To Tropical Depression

Isaac is now a Tropical depression centered near southern Arkansas. Winds continue to upwards to 30 miles-per hour. It is expected to move northward through the Mississippi River Valley before moving into the Ohio River Valley by Saturday night.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for all of central and southern Mississippi, as well as portions of southeast Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Leslie has formed in the Atlantic Ocean and has maximum sustained winds at 50 miles-per hour. It is moving west at 18 miles-per hour. It is projected to move west toward Puerto Rico by Sunday.

Hurricane Kirk remains well out in the Atlantic and is not a threat to land. As of 11 p.m., wind gusts were 100 miles per-hour and moving north northwest at 12 miles-per hour.

UPDATE: August 30th 2012, 4:40 p.m.

Issac has now been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.

—————————————————————————————————————–

WTNT34 KNHC 301740
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  38A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
100 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

…SLOW-MOVING ISAAC DRENCHING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI WITH HEAVY RAINFALL…
…SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE CONTINUES…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…32.2N 92.3W
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM SW OF MONROE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…
INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
LOUISIANA TODAY…OVER ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY…AND OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H… WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND…AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES…315
KM…MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER AND ALSO
ALONG THE COASTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
EVEN THOUGH ISAAC IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE…LIFE-THREATENING
HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE…INLAND FLOODING…AND TORNADOES ARE
STILL OCCURRING.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…4 TO 8 FT
* ALABAMA…2 TO 4 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA…1 TO 3 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS.  SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.  NEAR THE
COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAGES…AT
NEW CANAL STATION LOUISIANA…A STORM SURGE OF NEAR 6 FEET IS
PERSISTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN…AND A
STORM SURGE VALUE OF NEAR 5 FEET CONTINUES AT WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL…ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 7 TO 14 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE…OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA….MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA…ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
LOWLAND FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE SPREADING
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-WEST AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS.

TORNADOES…TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
TODAY.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Spanish:

WTNT34 TJSJ 301740
TCPAT4

BOLETÍN
TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 38A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL092012
100 PM CDT jue 30 de agosto 2012

… De lento movimiento ISAAC empapando SURESTE DE LOUISIANA Y
MISSISSIPPI CON LLUVIA FUERTE …
MAREJADA SIGNIFICATIVO … CONTINÚA …

RESUMEN DE LAS 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … INFORMACIÓN
———————————————-
UBICACIÓN … 32.2N 92.3W
ACERCA DE MI 25 … 45 KM SW DE MONROE LOUISIANA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 40 MPH … 65 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … NNW O 330 GRADOS A 9 MPH … 15 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 992 MB … 29.29 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

NINGUNO.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE MISSISSIPPI Y ALABAMA …
Incluyendo el lago Pontchartrain y MAUREPAS LAGO

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR MONITOREAR
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
OFICINA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 100 PM CDT … 1800 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Isaac
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.2 NORTE … LONGITUD 92.3 OESTE. Isaac es
MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH … 15 KM / H. UN GIRO
HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA POR LA TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. EN EL
PREVISIÓN TRAYECTORIA … EL CENTRO DE ISAAC CONTINUARA MOVIENDOSE SOBRE
LOUISIANA HOY … OVER ARKANSAS EL VIERNES … Y SOBRE EL SUR
MISSOURI VIERNES POR LA NOCHE.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH … 65 KM / H. .. CON MAYOR
RAFAGAS. DEBILITAMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS COMO LA TORMENTA
Continúa moviéndose SOBRE TIERRA … Y SE ESPERA QUE ISAAC HAZTE
DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL ESTA TARDE O NOCHE.

Tormenta tropical vientos con fuerza EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 195 MILLAS … 315
KM … MAYORMENTE AL SURESTE DEL CENTRO SOBRE EL AGUA Y TAMBIÉN
A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI Y EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA BASADA EN LA SUPERFICIE DE CERCA
OBSERVACIONES 992 MB … 29.29 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
Aunque Isaac YA NO ES UN HURACAN … que amenaza la vida
LOS PELIGROS DE LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA … INTERIOR … Y TORNADOS SON
Sigue produciendo.

MAREJADA … LA COMBINACIÓN DE UNA MAREJADA Y MAREA LA VOLUNTAD
CAUSA áreas normalmente secas CERCA DE LA COSTA ser inundado por la subida
AGUAS. El agua podría llegar a las profundidades SIGUIENTES sobre el suelo
SI SURGE EL PICO SE PRODUCE EN EL MOMENTO DE MAREA ALTA …

* Mississippi y Louisiana … SURESTE DE 4 A 8 FT
* ALABAMA … 2 A 4 PIES
* CENTRO-SUR DE LOUISIANA … 1 a 3 pies
* Panhandle de Florida … 1 a 2 pies

Las aguas más profundas OCURRE LO LARGO DE LA COSTA INMEDIATA EN LAS ZONAS DE
VIENTOS HACIA TIERRA. SURGE inundaciones relacionadas DEPENDE DEL PARIENTE
MOMENTO DE LA MAREJADA Y EL CICLO DE MAREA … y puede variar mucho a lo largo
Distancias cortas. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR
VER PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO. CERCA DE LA
COSTA … LA MAREJADA SERÁN ACOMPAÑADOS POR OLAS GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS.

Basándose en las observaciones de la National mareógrafos Servicio Oceánico … AT
NUEVO CANAL DE LA ESTACIÓN DE LOUISIANA … una marejada de cerca de 6 pies es
PERSISTIENDO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE lago Pontchartrain … Y UN
VALOR DE LA MAREJADA CERCA DE 5 PIES EN CONTINUA Waveland.

VIENTO … CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE CONTINUARA A TRAVES DE LA ATENCIÓN
ÁREA DE HASTA ESTA TARDE.

LLUVIA … ISAAC SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 7 A 14 PULGADAS … CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 25 PULGADAS
POSIBLE … MÁS DE NORTE Y ESTE DE LOUISIANA …. MUCHO DE
MISSISSIPPI … SUROESTE DE ALABAMA … ARKANSAS Y EN EL SUR
MISSOURI A VIERNES. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR UNA CONSIDERABLE
TIERRAS BAJAS INUNDACIONES. EL POTENCIAL DE LLUVIAS FUERTES SE DIFUSIÓN
AL ESTE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA EN PARTES DE LA MITAD OCCIDENTAL Y VALLE DE OHIO
REGIONES.

TORNADOS … TORNADOS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO
REGIÓN Y PARTES DE LA BAJA POR valle del río Mississippi
HOY.

SURF SURF … RIP PELIGROSO Y CONDICIONES ACTUALES CONTINUARA
AFECTAR LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA Y LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DE
PROXIMOS DIAS.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
————-
ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 400 PM CDT.

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART

Hurricane Local Statements for ISAAC

Issuing WFO Homepage Hurricane Local Statement
Shreveport, LA 1248 PM CDT THU AUG 30
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA 1040 AM CDT THU AUG 30
Jackson, MS 1036 AM CDT THU AUG 30
Lake Charles, LA 1019 AM CDT THU AUG 30
San Angelo, TX 655 AM CDT THU AUG 30

21 Aug 2012: Tropical Storm Isaac poses possible threat to GOP convention in Florida

22 Aug 2012:

The Weather Channel (www.weather.com):

Tropical Storm Isaac is forecast to continue strengthening steadily as it moves through the northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday and into the northeast Caribbean by Thursday. Isaac could become a hurricane as early as Thursday.

Residents and visitors of the northern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, southeastern United States and the central/eastern Gulf Coast should watch the progress of Isaac closely over the next week or more.

Initial impacts from Isaac will be felt in the northeastern Caribbean islands Wednesday into Thursday. Numerous watches and warnings have been issued, including a hurricane watch for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the southern Dominican Republic. Puerto Rico will see its greatest impacts from Isaac on Thursday.

(TRACK ISAAC: Interactive hurricane tracker)

The Weather Channel (www.weather.com):
Tormenta tropical Isaac se prevé continuar fortaleciendo constantemente mientras se mueve a través de las Antillas menores del Norte el miércoles y en el Caribe noreste para el jueves. Isaac podría convertirse en un huracán tan pronto como el jueves.
Los residentes y visitantes de el Caribe Norte, Península de Yucatán, sureste de Estados Unidos y el central y oriental del Golfo deben vigilar el progreso de Isaac estrechamente la próxima semana o más.
Impactos iniciales de Isaac se sentirán en las Islas del Caribe noreste el miércoles al jueves. Se han publicado numerosos relojes y advertencias, incluyendo una vigilancia de huracán para Puerto Rico, las Islas Vírgenes y República Dominicana del Sur. Puerto Rico verá sus mayores impactos de Isaac el jueves.
The Weather Channel (www.weather.com) :
Tempête tropicale Isaac prévoit continuer renforcer régulièrement lorsqu’il se déplace à travers les petites Antilles du Nord, le mercredi et dans les Caraïbes du nord-est par jeudi. Isaac pourrait devenir un ouragan dès jeudi.
Résidents et visiteurs de la Caraïbe du Nord, péninsule du Yucatan, sud-est des États-Unis et le central/eastern Gulf Coast devraient surveiller les progrès d’Isaac étroitement au cours de la semaine prochaine ou plus.
Les impacts initiaux d’Isaac feront sentir dans les îles des Caraïbes du nord-est mercredi à jeudi. Nombreuses veilles et avertissements ont été émis, y compris une veille d’ouragan pour Porto Rico, les îles Vierges américaines et la République dominicaine du Sud. Puerto Rico verra ses répercussions les plus importantes d’Isaac le jeudi.
24 Aug 2012 0856 GMT/UTC:
Haiti, Dominican Republic await Tropical Storm Isaac
Tropical Storm Isaac Storm warnings have already been declared for Puerto Rico and parts of the US Virgin Island  Haiti and the Dominican Republic are braced for a battering as Tropical Storm Isaac approaches Hispaniola, the island shared by the two countries.Some 400,000 Haitians still living in makeshift camps after a deadly earthquake in 2010 are “amongst the most vulnerable”, aid groups warn.Isaac could have become a hurricane by the time it is due to hit the island later today (Friday), meteorologists say – BBC News
Haití, República Dominicana esperan Tormenta Tropical Isaac
Advertencias de tormenta tropical Isaac tormenta ya han sido declaradas para Puerto Rico y partes de la Virgin Island
Haití y República Dominicana son apoyados por una agresión como Tormenta Tropical Isaac se acerca a la española, la isla compartida por los dos países.
Unos 400.000 haitianos siguen viviendo en campamentos improvisados tras un mortífero terremoto en 2010 son “entre los más vulnerables”, advierten grupos de ayuda.
Isaac podría han convertido en un huracán por el momento es debido al éxito la isla hoy (viernes), dicen los meteorólogos – BBC News
Haïti, République dominicaine attendent tempête tropicale Isaac
Avertissements de tempête tropicale Isaac tempête ont déjà été déclarés pour Porto Rico et les parties de l’île vierge US
Haïti et la République dominicaine sont contreventés pour un percutant l’approche de la tempête tropicale Isaac Hispaniola, l’île partagée par les deux pays.
Quelque 400 000 Haïtiens vivent toujours dans des camps de fortune après un tremblement de terre meurtrier en 2010 sont « parmi les plus vulnérables », avertissent les groupes d’aide.
Isaac aurait pu devenir un ouragan au moment où qu’elle est due à succès l’île plus tard aujourd’hui (vendredi), météorologues disent – BBC News
25 Aug 2012 1642 GMT/UTC

TWC: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Florida Keys sometime Sunday, with conditions to deteriorate in southern Florida throughout the day Sunday.The 11 a.m. advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center reports Isaac’s winds at 60 mph with its pressure at 998 millibars, a slight increase from the advisory three hours earlier. The system was moving northwest at 14 mph.Even though Isaac weakened briefly overnight as it moved over the mountains along the western tip of Hispanola, the tropical storm is expected to strengthen moving forward. The storm’s projected track has shifted slightly to the east, and remained a possible threat to Tampa, Fla., where the Republican National Convention starts Monday.Florida Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Isaac approaches the state.Scott said the goal was to make sure every local, state and federal agency “has the exact same information” on the storm and preparations in order to make informed decisions. He issued the state of emergency Saturday during a media briefing in Broward County.Dr. Rick Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center, said the storm has shifted in a way that could lead to Isaac, already a huge tropical storm, to increase in intensity.”Over the last several days we’ve been talking about how interdependent the track intensity forecasts are in this case relative how much time the center of Isaac spends over land on the way from the Caribbean to Florida, said Dr. Rick Knabb, head of the National Hurricane Center on The Weather Channel.”Unfortunately for the U.S., it took a path of least resistence by going in between Haiti and  Cuba. There is still some interaction with terrain there disrupting circulation somewhat. But, compared to yesterday, we’re more confident — unfortunately for Florida — that it’s going to take a path that spends more time over the land mass of Cuba that we thought possible yesterday.”Knabb said he expects conditions to begin “to go downhill” in Florida early Sunday, adding that he is “concerned about southwest Florida, not just the southeast, because they’re very, very vulnerable to storm surge down there, and, as of our 8am advisory, we’re talking about the potential for 5-to-7 feet of storm surge inundation in portions of the coastal areas of southwestern Florida.Said Knabb: “The intensity (of Isaac) even if it remains over water is still uncertain. We can’t 100 percent guarantee that a hurricane is going to cross over the Keys of southern Florida, but the chances are high enough that we’re forecasting that, and there is a hurricane warning down there.”

Spanish:

Tropical Storm Isaac se espera que sea un huracán en el momento en que llegue a los Cayos de la Florida en algún momento del domingo, con las condiciones que se deterioran en el sur de Florida durante todo el día domingo.

De las 11 am aviso emitido por el Centro Nacional de Huracanes informa vientos de Isaac a 60 millas por hora con su presión a 998 milibares, un ligero aumento de los asesores tres horas antes. El sistema se movía hacia el noroeste a 14 mph.

A pesar de que Isaac se debilitó brevemente durante la noche mientras se movía sobre las montañas a lo largo de la punta occidental de la Española, la tormenta tropical se espera que se fortalezca hacia adelante. Pista proyectada de la tormenta se ha desplazado ligeramente hacia el este, y se mantuvo una posible amenaza a Tampa, Florida, donde la Convención Nacional Republicana comienza el lunes.

Gobernador de Florida, Rick Scott ha declarado el estado de emergencia como la tormenta tropical Isaac se acerca al estado.

Scott dijo que el objetivo era asegurarse de que todas las agencias locales, estatales y federal “tiene la misma información” sobre la tormenta y los preparativos con el fin de tomar decisiones informadas. Emitió el estado de emergencia el sábado durante una rueda de prensa en el condado de Broward.

Dr. Rick Knabb, director del Centro Nacional de Huracanes, dijo que la tormenta ha pasado de una manera que podría llevar a Isaac, ya es una tormenta tropical enorme, aumentando en intensidad.

“En los últimos días hemos estado hablando de cómo interdependiente de los pronósticos de intensidad de pesca son en este caso relativo cuánto tiempo el centro de Isaac pasa por la tierra en el camino desde el Caribe hasta Florida, dijo el Dr. Rick Knabb, jefe de el Centro Nacional de Huracanes en The Weather Channel.

“Desafortunadamente para los EE.UU., tomó el camino de menor resistencia yendo entre Haití y Cuba Todavía hay cierta interacción con el terreno no interrumpir la circulación de alguna manera, pero, en comparación con ayer, estamos más seguros -.. Desafortunadamente para Florida – – que va a tomar un camino que pasa más tiempo en la masa de tierra de Cuba que creíamos posible ayer “.

Knabb dijo que espera que las condiciones para comenzar “a ir cuesta abajo” en Florida la madrugada del domingo, y agregó que está “preocupado por el suroeste de Florida, no sólo el sureste, ya que son muy, muy vulnerables a la marejada ciclónica allá abajo, y, a partir de 08 a.m. nuestro asesoramiento, estamos hablando de la posibilidad de que de 5 a 7 pies de inundación de mareas de tempestad en las partes de las zonas costeras del suroeste de Florida.

Dicho Knabb:. “La intensidad (de Isaac), incluso si permanece sobre el agua es aún incierto Podemos no es 100 por ciento de garantía de que un huracán va a cruzar los Cayos del sur de Florida, pero las ocasiones son lo suficientemente alto que nosotros” volver a pronosticar que, y hay una advertencia de huracán ahí abajo “.

French:

La tempête tropicale Isaac devrait être un ouragan au moment où il atteint parfois les Keys de Floride dimanche, avec des conditions à se détériorer dans le sud de la Floride pendant toute la journée du dimanche.

De 11 heures consultatif émis par le Centre national des ouragans rapporte vents d’Isaac à 60 mph avec sa pression de 998 millibars, soit une légère hausse dans les trois heures plus tôt consultatifs. Le système se déplaçait au nord-ouest à 14 mph.

Même si Isaac affaibli brièvement durant la nuit pendant qu’il se déplaçait sur les montagnes le long de la pointe ouest de l’Hispaniola, la tempête tropicale devrait se renforcer aller de l’avant. La trajectoire prévue de la tempête s’est déplacée légèrement à l’est, et demeure une menace possible à Tampa, en Floride, où la Convention nationale républicaine commence lundi.

Floride gouverneur Rick Scott a déclaré l’état d’urgence alors que la tempête tropicale Isaac se rapproche de l’état.

Scott a déclaré que le but était de s’assurer que chaque local, organisme étatique et fédéral »a exactement les mêmes informations” sur la tempête et les préparatifs en vue de prendre des décisions éclairées. Il a émis l’état d’urgence samedi lors d’une conférence de presse à Broward County.

Dr. Rick Knabb, directeur du National Hurricane Center, a déclaré la tempête s’est déplacée d’une manière qui pourrait conduire à Isaac, déjà une énorme tempête tropicale, à augmenter en intensité.

«Au cours des derniers jours, nous avons parlé de la façon dont interdépendant, les prévisions d’intensité de piste sont dans ce cas par rapport combien de temps le centre d’Isaac passe sur la terre sur le chemin de la Caraïbe en Floride, a déclaré le Dr Rick Knabb, chef de le Centre national des ouragans sur The Weather Channel.

“Malheureusement pour les Etats-Unis, il a fallu un chemin de moindre résistance en allant entre Haïti et Cuba Il ya encore une certaine interaction avec le terrain il perturber la circulation un peu Mais, par rapport à hier, nous sommes plus confiants -.. Malheureusement pour la Floride – – que ça va prendre un chemin qui passe plus de temps sur la masse terrestre de Cuba que nous pensions possible hier “.

Knabb a dit qu’il s’attend à ce que les conditions pour commencer “à descendre” en Floride dimanche matin, ajoutant qu’il est «préoccupé sud-ouest de la Floride, et pas seulement le sud-est, parce qu’ils sont très, très vulnérable à une onde de tempête là-bas, et, comme d’ 8 heures de notre conseil, nous parlons de la possibilité pour le 5-à-7 pieds d’inondation des ondes de tempête dans les parties des zones côtières du sud-ouest de la Floride.

Knabb dit:. “L’intensité (d’Isaac), même si elle reste au-dessus de l’eau est encore incertain Nous ne pouvons pas garantir à 100 pour cent que l’ouragan va traverser les Keys de la Floride du Sud, mais les chances sont assez élevées que nous re prévision de cela, et il ya un ouragan en garde là-bas. ”

25 Aug 2012 2017 GMT/UTC:
Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012:
Tropical Storm Isaac is pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains that are causing extremely dangerous flooding and landslides. Isaac’s center passed over Haiti’s southwest peninsula early this morning, tracking about 50 miles west of the capital of Port-au-Prince. As the center pulled away to the northwest, Isaac’s heaviest thunderstorms moved ashore over Hispaniola near sunrise, and are now dumping heavy rains with rainfall rates approaching one inch per hour, according to recent microwave satellite estimates. Barahona on the south coast of the Dominican Republic had received 5.14″ of rain as of 8 am EDT this morning, and it is probable that some mountainous areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already received up to 10″ of rain from Isaac. These rains will continue though much of the day, and have the potential to cause high loss of life in Hispaniola.
Spanish:
Tropical Storm Isaac está golpeando Haití y la República Dominicana con lluvias torrenciales que causan inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra extremadamente peligroso. Centro de Isaac pasó por la península suroeste de Haití esta mañana, el seguimiento de cerca de 50 millas al oeste de la capital, Port-au-Prince. A medida que el centro se alejó hacia el noroeste, más fuertes tormentas de Isaac se trasladó a tierra a través de la salida del sol cerca de la Española, y ahora el dumping fuertes lluvias con la precipitación pluvial que se acerca una pulgada por hora, de acuerdo a las recientes estimaciones de microondas satelitales. Barahona, en la costa sur de la República Dominicana había recibido 5,14 “de lluvia a partir del 8 am EDT esta mañana, y es probable que algunas áreas montañosas de Haití y la República Dominicana ya han recibido hasta 10” de la lluvia de Isaac. Estas lluvias continuarán aunque gran parte del día, y tienen el potencial de causar grandes pérdidas de vida en La Española.
French:
La tempête tropicale Isaac bat Haïti et la République dominicaine avec des pluies torrentielles qui provoquent des inondations et des glissements de terrain extrêmement dangereux. Centre d’Isaac passé sur la péninsule sud-ouest d’Haïti ce matin, à environ 50 miles de suivi à l’ouest de la capitale Port-au-Prince. En tant que centre arrachée au nord-ouest, les plus lourds orages Isaac déplacé à terre sur Hispaniola près lever du soleil, et vident maintenant de fortes pluies avec des taux de précipitations approchant un pouce par heure, selon de récentes estimations satellitaires micro-ondes. Barahona, sur la côte sud de la République dominicaine avait reçu 5.14 “de pluie à partir de 8 h HAE ce matin, et il est probable que certaines régions montagneuses d’Haïti et la République dominicaine ont déjà reçu jusqu’à 10” de pluie Isaac. Ces pluies se poursuivront même si une grande partie de la journée, et ont le potentiel de causer des pertes de vie élevée à Hispaniola.
26 Aug 2012:

Killer Storm Isaac Leaves Four dead in Haiti and one in Dominican Republic

By Associated Press

HAVANA — Tropical Storm Isaac pushed over Cuba on Saturday after sweeping across Haiti’s southern peninsula, where it caused flooding and at least four deaths, adding to the misery of a poor nation still trying to recover from the terrible 2010 earthquake.

Isaac’s center made landfall just before midday near the far-eastern tip of Cuba, downing trees and power lines. In the picturesque city of Baracoa, the storm surge flooded the seaside Malecon and a block inland, destroying two homes.

Forecasters said Isaac poses a threat to Florida Monday and Tuesday, just as the Republican Party gathers for its national convention in Tampa. It could eventually hit the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of nearly 100 mph (160 kph).

Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency, officials urged vacationers to leave the Florida Keys and the U.S. National Hurricane Center said a hurricane warning was in effect there, as well as for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south to Ocean Reef and for Florida Bay.

At least four people were reported dead in Haiti including a 10-year-old girl who had a wall fall on her, according to the country’s Civil Protection Office. There were no immediate details on how the others died.

The government also reported two injuries; “considerable damage” to agriculture and homes; nearly 8,000 people who were evacuated from their houses or quake shelters; and more than 4,000 who were taken to temporary shelters.

Many, however, stayed and suffered.

The Grise River overflowed north of Port-au-Prince, sending chocolate-brown water spilling through the sprawling shantytown of Cite Soleil, where many people grabbed what possessions they could and carried them on their heads, wading through waist-deep water.

“From last night, we’re in misery,” said Cite Soleil resident Jean-Gymar Joseph. “All our children are sleeping in the mud, in the rain.”

Scores of tents in quake settlements collapsed. In a roadside lot in Cite Soleil, the dozens of tents and shelters provided by international groups after the earthquake were tossed to the ground like pieces of crumpled paper, and the occupants tried to save their belongings.

“They promised they were going to build us a sturdy home and it never came,” Jean-Robert Sauviren, an unemployed 63-year-old father of six said as he stood barefoot in the water and held aloft his arms. “Maybe we don’t deserve anything.”

Ricknel Charles, a 42-year-old pastor, sheltered some 50 displaced people in his church.

“This is the only thing I can do for them: give them a place to sleep,” Charles said.

About 300 homes in Cite Soleil lost their roofs or were flooded three feet (one meter) deep, according to Rachel Brumbaugh, operation manager for the U.S. nonprofit group World Vision.

Doctors Without Borders said it anticipated a spike in cholera cases due to flooding and it was preparing to receive more patients.

The international airport reopened by the afternoon but there was still extensive flooding throughout Port-au-Prince after 24 hours of steady rain.

Spanish:

Killer Storm Isaac hojas muertas en Haití Cuatro y uno en la República Dominicana

Por Associated Press

LA HABANA – La tormenta tropical Isaac empujó sobre Cuba el sábado después de barrer a través de la península sur de Haití, donde causó inundaciones y muertes por lo menos cuatro, sumando a la miseria de una nación pobre todavía está tratando de recuperarse de la terrible terremoto de 2010.

Centro de Isaac tocó tierra justo antes del mediodía cerca de la punta extremo oriental de Cuba, los árboles y derribando cables de electricidad. En la pintoresca ciudad de Baracoa, la tormenta inundó el malecón costero y un bloque de tierra adentro, destruyendo dos casas.

Los meteorólogos dijeron que Isaac representa una amenaza a Florida el lunes y martes, al igual que el Partido Republicano se reúne para su convención nacional en Tampa. Con el tiempo, podría llegar a la península de Florida como un huracán de categoría 2 con vientos de casi 100 mph (160 kph).

Gobernador de Florida, Rick Scott, declaró el estado de emergencia, las autoridades instaron a los turistas abandonar los Cayos de la Florida y los EE.UU. Centro Nacional de Huracanes dijo una advertencia de huracán estaba en efecto allí, así como para la costa oeste de Florida desde el sur hasta Bonita Beach Ocean Reef y Florida Bay.

Al menos cuatro personas murieron en Haití, entre ellos una niña de 10 años de edad, quien sufrió una caída en la pared, según la Oficina del país de Protección Civil. No hubo detalles inmediatos sobre la forma en que los otros murieron.

El Gobierno también informó de dos lesiones; “daños considerables” a la agricultura y los hogares; cerca de 8.000 personas que fueron evacuadas de sus casas o refugios del terremoto, y más de 4.000 que fueron llevados a los refugios temporales.

Muchos, sin embargo, se quedó y sufrió.

El Grise desbordes del río al norte de Port-au-Prince, el envío de color chocolate se derrame agua a través de la extensa barriada de Cite Soleil, donde mucha gente lo tomó posesiones que pudieron y los llevó sobre sus cabezas, vadeando a través de agua hasta la cintura.

“Desde anoche, estamos en la miseria”, dijo el residente de Cité Soleil, Jean-Joseph Gymar. “Todos nuestros niños están durmiendo en el barro, bajo la lluvia.”

Decenas de tiendas de campaña en los asentamientos del terremoto derrumbó. En muchas carreteras en Cité Soleil, las docenas de tiendas de campaña y refugios proporcionados por los grupos internacionales tras el terremoto fueron arrojados al suelo como pedazos de papel arrugado, y sus ocupantes trataron de salvar sus pertenencias.

“Nos prometieron que nos iban a construir un hogar estable y nunca llegó”, dijo Jean-Robert Sauviren, un desempleado de 63 años de edad, padre de seis hijos, dijo mientras permanecía de pie descalzo en el agua y en alto sus brazos. “Tal vez no merecemos nada”.

Ricknel Charles, un pastor de 42 años de edad, al abrigo de unas 50 personas desplazadas en su iglesia.

“Esta es la única cosa que puedo hacer por ellos: darles un lugar para dormir”, dijo Charles.

Cerca de 300 viviendas en Cité Soleil quedaron sin techo o se inundaron tres pies (un metro) de profundidad, según Rachel Brumbaugh, gerente de operaciones de la Visión Mundial EE.UU. sin fines de lucro grupo.

Médicos Sin Fronteras dijo que prevé un aumento en los casos de cólera debido a las inundaciones y se prepara para recibir a más pacientes.

El aeropuerto internacional volvió a abrir por la tarde, pero aún había grandes inundaciones en todo Port-au-Prince, después de 24 horas de lluvia continua.

French:

Tueur de tempête Isaac Feuilles Quatre morts en Haïti et l’autre en République Dominicaine

Par Associated Press

LA HAVANE – La tempête tropicale Isaac poussé sur Cuba le samedi après déferle sur la péninsule sud d’Haïti, où il a causé des inondations et au moins quatre morts, en ajoutant à la misère d’un pays pauvre encore en train de se remettre de la terrible tremblement de terre de 2010.

Centre Isaac a touché terre juste avant midi près de la pointe extrême-orientale de Cuba, les arbres et les lignes électriques Downing. Dans la pittoresque ville de Baracoa, l’onde de tempête a inondé le Malecon et un bloc intérieur des terres, détruisant deux maisons.

Les prévisionnistes dit Isaac constitue une menace pour la Floride lundi et mardi, tout comme le Parti républicain se réunit pour sa convention nationale à Tampa. Il pourrait éventuellement frapper la péninsule de la Floride comme un ouragan de catégorie 2 avec des vents de près de 100 mph (160 kmh).

Floride gouverneur Rick Scott a déclaré l’état d’urgence, les responsables demandé aux vacanciers de quitter les Keys de Floride et le US National Hurricane Center dit un avertissement d’ouragan est en vigueur là-bas, ainsi que pour la côte ouest de la Floride du sud pour Bonita Beach Ocean Reef et pour la baie de Floride.

Au moins quatre personnes ont été déclarées mortes en Haïti, y compris une fillette de 10 ans qui a fait une chute sur son mur, selon le Bureau du pays de la protection civile. Il n’y avait pas de détails sur la façon immédiats les autres sont morts.

Le gouvernement a également fait état de deux blessés; “des dégâts considérables” pour l’agriculture et les maisons; près de 8.000 personnes qui ont été évacuées de leurs maisons ou des abris du tremblement de terre, et plus de 4.000 qui ont été prises pour des abris temporaires.

Beaucoup, cependant, sont restés et ont souffert.

La rivière Grise débordé au nord de Port-au-Prince, l’envoi de brun chocolat humidifier le bidonville tentaculaire à travers de Cité Soleil, où beaucoup de gens saisi ce qu’ils pouvaient biens et les emportèrent sur leurs têtes, pataugeant dans l’eau jusqu’à la taille.

“De la nuit dernière, nous sommes dans la misère», a déclaré Cité Soleil résident Jean-Joseph Gymar. «Tous nos enfants dorment dans la boue, sous la pluie.”

Des dizaines de tentes dans les campements du tremblement de terre s’est effondrée. Dans beaucoup en bordure de route à Cité Soleil, des dizaines de tentes et des abris fournis par des groupes internationaux, après le tremblement de terre ont été jetés sur le sol comme des morceaux de papier froissé, et les occupants ont essayé de sauver leurs biens.

“Ils ont promis qu’ils allaient nous construire une maison solide et il n’est jamais venu», Jean-Robert Sauviren, un chômeur de 63 ans, père de six enfants a dit qu’il était pieds nus dans l’eau et a brandi ses bras. “Peut-être que nous ne méritons pas quoi que ce soit.”

Ricknel Charles, un pasteur de 42 ans, à l’abri quelque 50 personnes déplacées dans son église.

«C’est la seule chose que je peux faire pour eux: leur donner un endroit pour dormir», dit Charles.

Environ 300 maisons à Cité Soleil ont perdu leurs toits ont été inondées ou trois pieds (un mètre) de profondeur, selon Rachel Brumbaugh, directrice des opérations pour la vision américaine à but non lucratif du monde groupe.

Médecins Sans Frontières a déclaré qu’il s’attend à un pic de cas de choléra dus aux inondations et il se préparait à recevoir plus de patients.

La réouverture de l’aéroport international de l’après-midi, mais il y avait encore d’importantes inondations à travers Port-au-Prince après 24 heures de pluie continue.

26 Aug 2012 1806 GMT/UTC: About 20 minutes ago – “The center of Tropical Storm #Isaac is 50 miles south-southeast of Key West.”  (@NWSKeyWest)
26 Aug 2012 2351 GMT/UTC: Huge evacuation of BP workers from Gulf #oil rigs now underway – CNN
28 Aug 2012: Organizers, delegates remain concerned about Isaac as RNC gets under way – http://bit.ly/OHLozk

29 Aug 2012:

Leeve overflows: 75 rescued in Plaquemines Parish – 25 still stranded

BRAITHWAITE, La. —  Rescue workers and public citizens rescued 75 people from flooded homes and rooftops from the town of Braithwaite after it was inundated with 10-12 feet of water, Parish President Billy Nungesser said Wednesday morning.Eyewitness News’ Maya Rodriguez said 25 people were still reportedly awaiting rescue on the parish’s east bank on rooftops and in attics. – WWLTV.com
More here
30 Aug 2012:

Dam expected to fail – Mandatory evacuation near Tangipahoa River – risk to 40,000 to 60,000 people

BATON ROUGE — Tangipahoa Parish officials have issued a mandatory evacuation for communities near the Tangipahoa River because Percy Quin Dam in Mississippi is expected to fail, officials said Thursday. The dam in Pike County is in imminent danger of failure due to flooding from Hurricane Isaac, officials said.

U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise announced that parish President Gordon Burgess called for immediate, mandatory evacuation on his Facebook page, saying the dam on Lake Tangipahoa is in “extreme danger” of failing.

The evacuation area runs from Kentwood to Robert along the river, he said.

State Police Superintendent Col. Mike Edmonson said Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness head Kevin Davis was on his way to Tangipahoa to work with Burgess on the evacuation. The National Guard has a helicopter hovering over the dam to monitor the situation, Edmonson said. As of 10:45 the structure was still holding, he said. – nola.com

Gov @BobbyJindal: Could be between 40k-60k people affected by the flooding in Tangipahoa if dam breaks

US: DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA (NHCAdv16) – 27 June 2012 1010 GMT/UTC

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(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

NWS Tallahasee, FL Local Doppler Radars

Fort Rucker, AL (KEOX)
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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Ft. Rucker, AL.  Click on the image for additional options.�E��E�

Moody AFB, GA (KVAX)
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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Moody AFB, GA.  Click on the image for additional options.

Eglin AFB, FL (KEVX)
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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Eglin AFB, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

Tallahassee, FL (KTLH)
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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar that serves Tallahassee, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY (CLICK HERE FOR JAX BRIEFING)…

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 27 Jun, 2012 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression DEBBY (AL04) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

N Atlántico: Alerta de tormenta emitido al 27 de junio 2012 09:00 GMT

Tropical DEBBY Depresión (AL04) se prevé que la huelga de la tierra a la probabilidad siguiente (s) en el plazo de entrega determinado (s):
País alerta amarilla (s) o de la Provincia (s)
los Estados Unidos
probabilidad de TS es del 90% en la actualidad
Amarillo Ciudad Alerta (s) y Ciudad (s)
Orlando (29,0 N, 81,5 W)
probabilidad de TS es del 55% en la actualidad

Nótese que
Alerta amarilla (elevada) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10% y 30% de probabilidad, o TS anteriormente probabilidad del 50%.
CAT 1 significa que vientos huracanados de fuerza de por lo menos 74 mph, 119 km / ho 64 nudos 1-min sostenida.
TS significa vientos fuerza de tormenta tropical de al menos 39 mph, 63 km / ho 34 nudos 1-min sostenida.

Para información de los pronósticos gráfica y otros detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

000
WTNT34 KNHC 270831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

…DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.6N 81.0W
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM SE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH…17
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…DEBBY
SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM FLORIDA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE…ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE LINGERING
RAIN BANDS…MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTCA44 TJSJ 270931
TCPSP4

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA  NUMERO  16
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL042012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 DE JUNIO DE 2012

…DEBBY MENOS ORGANIZADA MIENTRAS ALCANZA LA COSTA ESTE DEL NORTE
CENTRAL DE FLORIDA…

RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMACION
————————————————–
LOCALIZACION…29.6 NORTE 81.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 25 MI…45 KM AL SURESTE DE ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL…ESTE NORESTE O 75 GRADOS A 10 MPH…17 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA…998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
——————–
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
—————————————————
A LAS 5:00 AM EDT…0900 UTC…EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.6 NORTE…LONGITUD
81.0 OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A
CERCA DE 10 MPH…17 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA…DEBBY DEBERA ALEJARSE
GRADUALMENTE DE FLORIDA HOY.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH…55 KM/H…CON
RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS.

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
————————-
MAREJADA CICLONICA…NIVELES ALTOS DE AGUA EN AREAS DONDE LAS AGUAS
NORMALMENTE FLUYEN SOBRE LA COSTA A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL
SUROESTE Y NORESTE DE FLORIDA DEBEN DISMINUIR MAS TARDE HOY. PARA
INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA…FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

LLUVIA…SE ESPERA QUE LAS LLUVIAS ASOCIADAS A DEBBY CONTINUEN
DISMINUYENDO A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY.
CANTIDADES AISLADAS ADICIONALES DE HASTA UNA PULGADA SON POSIBLES EN
LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE DEBBY…MAYORMENTE SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA.

PROXIMAS ADVERTENCIAS
———————
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA…1100 AM EDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADORES AVILA

000
WTNT44 KNHC 270832
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

SATELLITE…RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF DEBBY IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING ELONGATED. THE CENTER
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…BUT THE AREA
OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 075
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS IN A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
FLORIDA ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL
PROBABLY 30 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH…AND IN FACT…BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST
WEAKENING IN THE 00 UTC RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS DEBBY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 3
DAYS.

DEBBY IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH…AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR
NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 29.6N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH…OVER WATER
12H  27/1800Z 30.0N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  28/0600Z 30.5N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  28/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  29/0600Z 32.0N  70.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  30/0600Z 35.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  01/0600Z 38.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 45.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT44 TJSJ 270832
TCDAT4

DEBBY DEPRESION TROPICAL NÚMERO 16 DE DEBATE
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 de junio 2012

Las observaciones de radar … Y SATÉLITE superficie indica que el
CIRCULACIÓN DE DEBBY es cada vez más alargada. EL CENTRO
Es difícil de localizar Dada la falta de organización … PERO LA ZONA
DE PRESION MINIMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE O ESTE-075
GRADOS a 9 nudos en el noreste de la Florida Central. LA MAYORÍA DE LAS PROFUNDIDADES
CONVECCIÓN está en una banda tipo frontal AMPLIACIÓN DEL NORESTE
A TRAVES DE LA FLORIDA Atlántico adyacente. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SON TODAVÍA
Probablemente 30 nudos con una TURBONADAS PRINCIPALMENTE sobre el agua.

NINGUNA DE LAS DIRECTRICES DE INTENSIDAD muestran un aumento significativo EN
Fuerza … Y, de hecho … Tanto el modelo GFS y ECMWF dan a entender
Debilitamiento en el RUN 00 UTC. El pronóstico oficial DEBBY MANTIENE COMO
DEPRESION TROPICAL Y PERMITE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE más allá de 3
DÍAS.

DEBBY está incrustado en flujo del oeste dentro de la base A MEDIADOS DE LA LATITUD
A TRAVÉS DE … y debe seguir para avanzar en la ESTE-NORESTE O
NORESTE DE LO INDICADO POR LOS MODELOS GLOBALES. LA PREVISIÓN OFICIAL
En medio de la GFS y ECMWF MODELOS.

POSICIONES DE PREVISIÓN Y Vientos máximos

INIT 29.6N 81.0W 27/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH … SOBRE EL AGUA
12H 30.0N 79.4W 27/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30.5N 76.5W 28/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31.0N 73.0W 28/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 32.0N 70.5W 29/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 35.0N 66.5W 30/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 38.0N 62.0W 01/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 45.5N 50.0W 02/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

A man has been captured on film using a wind created by tropical storm Debby to leap over an entire pier at Redington Beach, Florida, according to the Telegraph.

The gale-force winds, which have been measuring up to 50 miles per hour, lift him totally clear of the structure.

The video was taken by onlooker Jay Gartner, who uploaded it onto YouTube on Sunday, and it has since been viewed over 300,000 times. – AOL

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #BERYL ADV12 – 28 May 2012 2100GMT/UTC

(Image: NHC NOAA)
BERYL A RAINMAKER
(Click image for source)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282030
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

BERYL A RAINMAKER

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.8N 83.1W
ABOUT 10 MI…20 KM E OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
SHOULD BEGIN ON TUESDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CIRCULATION OF
BERYL OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA…SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…45 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…ISOLATED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY…
PARTICULARLY IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE…TOTAL WATER LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #BERYL SOAKS PARTS OF N FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA…MORE RAIN TO COME – NHCAdv11

(Image: NHC NOAA)
TD Beryl
(Click image to visit source)

(Image: NWS FL)
TD Beryl
(Click image to visit source)

The remnants of Beryl will track northwest then north to northeast tonight across Southeast Georgia. The potential for locally heavy rainfall will exist through the night. A wind and lake wind advisory may be in effect for the early evening. A general decrease in winds is expected through the night. Isolated thunderstorms… however…will have the potential to produce strong wind gusts.

(Image: NWS FL)
JAX RADAR LOOP
(Click image to visit source)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281450
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

BERYL SOAKING PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA…MORE
RAIN TO COME

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.5N 82.7W
ABOUT 60 MI…100 KM WNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF RECENTLY DOWNGRADED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5
NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH…55
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY OVER WATER EAST FO THE CENTER. A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY…PARTICULARLY
IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A SUBSIDING STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE IS STILL CAUSING NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND
DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

US: #BERYL, WEAKENING BUT HVY RAIN. MOVING OVER N FLORIDA TODAY, INTO SE GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

(Image: NWS FL)
TS Beryl
(Click image to visit NWS Jacksonville)

Tropical Storm Beryl will weaken to a depression tonight as it moves further inland across Southeast Georgia. Rain bands around the broad center will continue to periods of heavy rains and wind gusts to 40 mph. More flooding is possible at normally flood prone areas, especially in the areas of San Marco and Riverside. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected tonight which could cause more localized flooding.

JAX RADAR

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281212
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

…CORRECTED FOR CURRENT LOCATION…

BERYL WEAKENING BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.4N 82.5W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER GEORGIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST. BERYL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND
INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO RAINBANS
OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 140 MILES…220 KM…TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY…PARTICULARLY IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE REGION OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING CAN
VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

US: CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM #BERYL ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND – TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND – NHCAdv 9 28 May 2012 0349GMT/UTC

(Image: NHC NOAA)
TS Beryl
(Click image to visit source)

(Image: NWS Jacksonville, FL)
TS Beryl
(Click image for source)

JAX RADAR (Click image to visit source)

STRONG TROPICAL STORM BERYL will make landfall on the Northeast Florida coast this evening. The west side of the central core rainband has moved onshore and will continue to move inland this evening. Wind gusts, associated with this main band, will approach hurricane force along the immediate coast and up to 60 mph over inland areas. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet will be possible as the storm makes landfall this evening. Moderate flooding is possible at normally flood prone areas, especially in the areas of San Marco and Riverside, as the winds along the river shift to a southerly direction. As the center of the storm moves onshore, a several hour period of lighter winds and relatively dry conditions can be expected. The east side of the central core rainband will reach the coast after midnight, bringing with it another round of heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible overnight.

SHELTERS open at Legends Center at Soutel & Moncrief in NW Jacksonville, FL

000
WTNT32 KNHC 280244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER�� 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL������ AL022012
1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND…TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.2N 81.1W
ABOUT 35 MI…60 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM SSE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.� BERYL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. HUGUENOT PARK NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH A GUST OF 68
MPH…109 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB…29.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN

Infrared satellite image of TS Beryl at landfall tonight near Jacksonville Beach, FL via @stormchaser4850

US: #BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY ON THE COAST

000
WTNT32 KNHC 272348
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY
ON THE COAST

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI…115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL…BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BERYL
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL…BUT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WOULD MAKE BERYL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL…AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…
185 KM FROM THE CENTER. JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH…80 KM/H…WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH…95
KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

US: #BERYL TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NR THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA 27 May 2012 2330GMT/UTC

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image to visit NHC)

(Image: NWS Jacksonville, FL)
Tropical Storm BERYL
(Click image to visit source)


STRONG TROPICAL STORM BERYL will make landfall on the Northeast Florida coast this evening. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly as the central core rainband moves onshore between 7 and 10 pm. Wind gusts, associated with this main band, will approach hurricane force along the immediate coast at times this evening. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is anticipated near the time of landfall late this evening. Moderate flooding is possible at normally flood prone areas, especially in the areas of San Marco and Riverside, as the winds along the river shift to a southerly direction. Tropical Storm force winds will expand inland late this evening and continue through the night. Flooding rains will occur through the night with rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches expected overnight, with locally higher amounts possible.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 272042
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

BERYL TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.0N 80.3W
ABOUT 85 MI…140 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL…BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…
185 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41012 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES…80
KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH…71 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH…94
KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB…29.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

US: SUB-TROPICAL STORM #BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER, RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

(Image: NHC NOAA)
GOES East Hurricane SECTOR IR Image
(Click on image to visit NHC)

(Click on image to visit NHC)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 271448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER�� 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL������ AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 125 MI…205 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI…220 KM ESE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H.� A WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL.� AFTER LANDFALL…
BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FOR AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH…95
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.� LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA…GEORGIA…AND NORTH FLORIDA…
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

US: NHC Adv 6A: #Beryl approaches SE coast recon aircraft investigates sub-tropical storm

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click on image to visit NHC)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 271150
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

BERYL HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES…RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
STORM

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 165 MI…270 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI…290 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF BERYL WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER
LANDFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER
LANDFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41012 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES…80 KM…
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 45 MPH…72 KM/H.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA…GEORGIA…AND NORTH FLORIDA…
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

#BERYL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST…EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT

#BERYL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST…EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click on image to go to NHC)

 

000
WTNT32 KNHC 270831
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

…BERYL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST…EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.5N 78.8W
ABOUT 175 MI…280 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 175 MI…280 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES…
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF BERYL WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER
LANDFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
THEN TURN NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER
LANDFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA…GEORGIA…AND NORTH FLORIDA…
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

(Image: NHC NOAA)
GOES East Coast US
(Click image to visit NHC)

NHC Adv 2A #BERYL: TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click on image to visit NHC)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 261137
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

BERYL MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COASTLINE

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…32.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 175 MI…280 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H. A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BERYL
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB…29.56 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA…GEORGIA…AND NORTH FLORIDA…
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA…GEORGIA…SOUTH CAROLINA…AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN

US: Florida may have a tropical cyclone over the weekend – NASA Updated 24 May 2012 0103GMT/UTC

Possible Tropical Cyclone Development

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Miami, Florida predicts that a low pressure center affecting southern Florida may develop into a tropical cyclone over the weekend. The TRMM satellite traveled above this area of disturbed weather early this morning at 0429 UTC ( 00:29 AM EDT ) collecting data used in the rainfall analysis shown.

Source: http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/

(Image: NASA)

 

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA…HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE…60 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE…MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT…LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL…FLOODING…AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS…AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.  ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM…PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. &&

4. HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
NNNN

12-year-old boy saves family from blaze

A 12-year-old boy is being hailed as a hero for entering a burning home three times to save his four younger siblings early Sunday morning.

Full story here: http://www.pnj.com/article/20120514/NEWS01/305130025/12-year-old-boy-saves-family-from-blaze?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

US Coast Guard rescue 2 missing divers off Sebastian Inlet, Florida

The Coast Guard rescued two missing divers Friday afternoon approximately 10 miles east of Sebastian Inlet, Fla.

The divers became separated from thier boat and were drifting for more than five hours before being located by a Coast Guard helicopter crew from Air Station Clearwater, Fla.

The Coast Guard received notification at 12:30 p.m. Friday from the dive vessel Bangstick that two divers who went down at 9:40 a.m. were overdue in their resurfacing by about an hour. The Coast Guard immediately launched multiple assets to search by sea and air.

The divers were spearfishing when they became separated from their vessel, and drifted approximately four miles south of the dive boat’s location.

A Coast Guard Air Station Clearwater helicopter crew spotted the two missing divers, deployed their rescue swimmer, and vectored in a boatcrew from Coast Guard Station Fort Pierce, Fla., to retrieve the divers from the water.

Once medically cleared, the divers were transported back to the dive vessel Bangstick.

Also assisting in the case were:

A Coast Guard Air Station Miami airplane crew
A Coast Guard Station Port Canaveral, Fla., boatcrew
Two boatcrews from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission
A boatcrew from Indian River County
A Brevard County helicopter crew

“The Coast Guard cannot stress enough the importance of safety at sea,” said Petty Officer 2nd Class Stefan Overton, search and rescue controller, Coast Guard Sector Miami. “The precautions taken by these divers to equip themselves with an inflatable device, as well as a signaling device, significantly increased their chances for survival and for being spotted by rescue crews. We worked closely with our state and local partner agencies during this search and rescue case, andwe are extremely pleased to have found these individuals alive and well.”

For more information on boating safety: http://www.uscgboating.org/default.aspx