South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Victor 07P: 152100Z POSITION nr 14.6S 166.4W, moving W at 02 knots (JTWC) – Published 15 Jan 2016 2145Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Victor 07P

(= CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET

sp201607_5day 15

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast
sp201607_sat_anim 15
Image: @wunderground Satellite

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RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre 

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone VICTOR

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 72 issued 1924 UTC Friday 15 January 2016 

65660 15


Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone VICTOR

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm January 15 2 14.7S 166.3W 110
+6hr 12 am January 16 2 14.8S 166.5W 140
+12hr 6 am January 16 2 15.0S 166.6W 165
+18hr 12 pm January 16 2 15.2S 166.7W 195
+24hr 6 pm January 16 3 15.6S 166.7W 220
+36hr 6 am January 17 3 16.6S 166.8W 280
+48hr 6 pm January 17 3 17.8S 166.6W 345
+60hr 6 am January 18 3 18.9S 166.2W 430
+72hr 6 pm January 18 3 19.9S 165.8W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa


The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 152005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.0S 166.6W MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.6S 166.7W MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.6S 166.8W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 17.8S 166.6W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160200 UTC.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Victor) Warning #03
Issued at 15/2100Z

sh0716 15

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151800Z — NEAR 14.6S 166.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 166.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 14.8S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 15.1S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 15.7S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 16.7S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 19.4S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 20.6S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 21.2S 167.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM EAST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATION OF
BANDING, DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
INDICATE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ARE FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING TC 07P THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES WILL REMAIN POSITIVE NORTH OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH
AND WILL ENHANCEMENT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE LLCC
AND IS CREATING AMPLE OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS DIVERGENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE 96 TO 120 TIMEFRAME. AS SSTS AND OHC DECREASE
AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WEAKENS, BEYOND TAU 96, THE OVERALL INTENSITY
WILL DECREASE, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL
CYCLONE. TC 07P HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, CAUSING A SOUTHWARD TURN WITH MARGINAL
ACCELERATION THROUGH TAU 72. A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF
TC VICTOR. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
LEADING TO IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK HAS
BEEN KEPT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CONSENSUS AS IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY
SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND
162100Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

STORM WARNING 072 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 151938 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7 SOUTH 166.8 WEST AT 151800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS BY 160000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.0S 166.6W AT 160600 UTC
AND NEAR 15.6S 166.7W AT 161800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 070.

METAREA14 / STORM_WARNING_NORTH_25S / 2100

WTPS11 NFFN 152100
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 152005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 166.8W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.0S 166.6W MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.6S 166.7W MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.6S 166.8W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 17.8S 166.6W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160200 UTC.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Melanesia/Fiji/Cook Islands: Tropical Cyclone MIKE 191800Z nr 24.6S 158.4W, moving SE at 22 knots – Updated 190314 1905z

Tropical Cyclone MIKE

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone MIKE

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 70 issued 1407 UTC Wednesday 19 March 2014

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Tropical Cyclone MIKE

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm March 19 1 22.2S 157.7W 110
+6hr 6 pm March 19 1 23.3S 157.4W 140
+12hr 12 am March 20 1 24.3S 157.7W 165
+18hr 6 am March 20 1 25.2S 158.2W 195
+24hr 12 pm March 20 1 26.1S 158.7W 220
+36hr 12 am March 21 2 28.2S 159.8W 280
+48hr 12 pm March 21 2 30.2S 160.7W 345
+60hr 12 am March 22 1 32.2S 160.9W 430
+72hr 12 pm March 22 1 34.5S 161.1W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 19/1355 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE CENTRE 990HPA CAT1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2S
157.7W AT 191200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT AND
WITHIN 360 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTANT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 2.5,
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T2.5/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 24.3S 157.7W MOV S AT 15 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 26.1S 158.7W MOV SSW AT 15 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 28.2S 159.8W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 30.2S 160.7W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 192000 UTC.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY TWO for Southern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 19/1846 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR
TAKUTEA, ATIU, MATIARO AND MAUKE.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOK
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE CENTRE [990HPA] CAT1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 24
DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 158 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 160 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 220 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA
AT 191800UTC. CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22
KNOTS. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTH OF MANGAIA AT 200600UTC.

FOR MANGAIA:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 35 KNOTS AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING
INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE WILL BE ISSUED AT 192200 UTC OR EARLIER.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2014.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/20P_190532sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190221ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001   
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
190600Z — NEAR 20.5S 159.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 155 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 159.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 23.5S 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 25.4S 160.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 27.1S 161.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 29.5S 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 159.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (MIKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN
DISPLACED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 190422Z 37
GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC THAT IT
FAIRLY COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE IR ANIMATION
AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE
SEEN IN THE SSMIS IMAGE WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WIDELY
RANGE FROM 25 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. TC 20P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC MIKE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE POLEWARD AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST. NEAR TAU 24, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE WHILE DRY AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THESE FACTORS WILL ADDITIONALLY BEGIN TO
TURN THE SYSTEM INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS THE STRONGER WINDS
MIGRATE TO THE PERIPHERY AND THE CENTRAL CORE WINDS BECOME WEAK. BY
TAU 48, TC 20P WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM INTO A COLD
CORE, EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY
SPREAD BUT OVERALL AGREES WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH COULD LEAD TO WEAKENING SOONER THAN
FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 190230Z MAR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 190230).//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Mar, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MIKE (20P) currently located near 20.5 S 159.3 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Avarua (21.2 S, 159.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME

Pacific High Seas Forecast

Issued by MetService, NZ, at 8:36pm Wednesday 19 Mar 2014 (Local Time)

Forecast valid to 1:00am Friday 21 Mar 2014: Slow moving ridge 42S 170W 41S 152W 30S 140W 30S 120W. North of ridge of west of 140W: Southeast quarter 25kt, with gales as in warnings 320 and 324, heavy easterly swells developing west of 150W after 191200UTC, and poor visibility in rain west of 150W spreading south to 32S by 201200UTC. Low 1003hPa near 40S 127W moving southsoutheast 15kt.Within 480 nautical miles of low: Clockwise winds 25kt, with gales as in warning 318, and poor visibility in rain at times in sector from north through east to west.Front 49S 163W 54S 154W 58S 143W moving eastnortheast 25kt.Southwest of front:Southwest 25kt developing after 191800UTC. Areas of fog south of 45S and west of 160W.

Outlook following 72 hours

Tropical Cyclone Mike near 30S 165W southsouthwest. Clockwise 35 to 45kt about cyclone with heavy swells. Ridge along 40S moving slowly south.North of ridge, Easterly quarter 20 to 30kt tending clockwise and rising to gale about cyclone. South of ridge, westerly quarter 20 to 30kt. Heavy northeast swell east of 130W and south 40S, easing by 211200UTC.

GALE WARNING 325
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 191200UTC
Low 998hPa near 42S 126W moving south 10kt.
In a belt 240 nautical miles wide centred on a line 48S 120W 44S 128W 40S 127W: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale area moving southwest 10kt.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 318.

Issued at 1:45am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

GALE WARNING 327
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 191200UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
In an area bounded by 25S 169W 25S 151W 30S 155W 30S 163W 29S 169W 25S 169W: Easterly 35kt.
Gale area slow moving.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 320.

Issued at 1:45am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 331
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
Copy of GALE WARN issued by NADI at 19-Mar-2014 13:17 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone MIKE [990hPa] centre was located near 22.2 South 157.7 West at 191200 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 22.2S 157.7W at 191200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 22 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the northwest
quadrant and within 360 nautical miles of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 24.3S 157.7W at 200000 UTC
and near 26.1S 158.7W at 201200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 324.

Issued at 2:27am Thursday 20 Mar 2014

METAREA X

METAREA XIV

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

New Zealand: LOW 991hPa Ex-Tropical #Cyclone 18F Lusi 151200Z nr 37S 171E, moving S at 15 kts. Expected to cross South Island overnight Sunday (RSMC Wellington) – Updated 150314 1442z

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi

Expected to cross the South Island overnight Sunday (RSMC Wellington)

New Zealand be aware!

Tropical Cyclone Lusi

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.

ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:27 pm 15-Mar-2014

Ex-cyclone Lusi continues to bring heavy rain and easterly gales to many places this weekend, but conditions are improving over the upper North Island tonight.

A depression – formerly Tropical Cyclone Lusi – lies west of Northland this evening and is expected to be centred about 300km west of Auckland at midnight tonight. The low will then move southwards to cross the upper South Island Sunday evening. Widespread rain and easterly gales are spreading southwards, but have eased in Northland this evening. The heaviest falls this afternoon and evening have been in Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne, but although still heavy, the rain there is slowly easing. The heaviest falls tonight and during Sunday are forecast for the upper South Island, where the ranges of Nelson could see up to 200mm of rain.

Warnings for heavy rain or severe gales are still in place from Auckland to north Otago. Please note, that a warning for heavy northwesterly rain is now in place for Buller.

As the low crosses the upper South Island Sunday night, northwest gales are forecast to affect central New Zealand, and warnings are in place for Marlborough, Wellington, and Wairarapa south of Masterton. Gusts could reach 130km/h from Sunday evening to early Monday morning.

This continues to be a significant adverse weather event, affecting many parts of the country. The heavy rain is likely to cause slips and surface flooding, and the severe easterly gales could make driving hazardous, lift roofs, and bring down trees and powerlines. People are strongly advised to exercise caution, and to stay up to date with the latest forecasts, Warnings and Watches.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED

Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty west of Kawerau

FORECAST

Heavy rain continues to fall. In the 12 hours from 8pm today to 8am Sunday, expect a further 50-60mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 10-15mm per hour.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Gisborne and eastern Bay of Plenty

FORECAST

Heavy rain has set in. In the 16 hours from 8pm today to noon Sunday, expect 80 to 100mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 10-15mm per hour this evening (Saturday).

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Hawkes Bay

FORECAST

Heavy rain has set in. In the 12 hours from 8pm Saturday to 8am Sunday, expect a further 60 to 90mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 15-20mm per hour this evening (evening).

AREA/S AFFECTED

All of Nelson

FORECAST

Heavy easterly rain has set in this evening. The flow should turn north to northwesterly during Sunday. In the 34 hours from 8pm Saturday to 6am Monday, expect 150 to 200mm of rain to accumulate in the ranges and about 100mm over the Tasman Bay lowlands.

FREEZING LEVEL: Above 3500 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Marlborough, including the Kaikoura Ranges

FORECAST

Heavy easterly rain is forecast to set in this evening (Saturday), then later Sunday the flow should turn northwest. In the 24 hours from 9pm today to 9pm Sunday, expect 120 to 150mm of rain to accumulate.

FREEZING LEVEL: Above 4000 metres.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Hills and coastal ranges of South Canterbury and North Otago

FORECAST

Strong northeasterlies and rain are forecast for South Canterbury and North Otago through most of Sunday, easing late evening. In the 18 hours from 3am to 9pm Sunday expect 70 to 100mm on the coastal hills and ranges. During this time 30 to 50mm rain is likely on the coastal lowlands.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Buller north of Westport

FORECAST

Rain is forecast to become heavy Sunday afternoon, as northeast winds turn strong northwesterly. In the 12 hours from 3pm Sunday till 3am Monday, expect 80-120mm of rain to accumulate about the ranges. Peak intensities of 15-25mm/hr Sunday evening.

FREEZING LEVEL: 3500 metres.

STRONG WIND WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED

Auckland

FORECAST

Severe easterly gales are expected to continue this evening with gusts of 120 km/h. Winds should gradually ease tonight.

AREA/S AFFECTED

The Kaimai Range, and Waikato near the Kaimais, including Thames

FORECAST

Severe easterly gales are expected to continue this evening, with gusts of 130 km/h in exposed places. Winds should ease tonight.

AREA/S AFFECTED

Marlborough Wellington and Wairarapa south of Masterton

FORECAST

Northwest winds are expected to rise to gale in exposed parts of Marlborough, Wellington and Wairarapa south of Masterton Sunday evening. From about 8pm Sunday to 6am Monday severe gales are expected with gusts of 130 km/h.

WARNINGS NO LONGER IN FORCE

HEAVY RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR: Northland

Heavy rain is easing this evening, and the warning has been lifted.

STRONG WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR: Northland

Winds have eased and the warning has been lifted.

NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00 am Sunday 16-Mar-2014

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 2:09pm Saturday 15 Mar 2014
Valid from Monday 17 March 2014 to Thursday 20 March 2014

Cyclone Lusi is expected to cross the South Island overnight Sunday, then move away to the east and weaken on Monday. Warnings and Watches are in force for many regions.

On Monday, as Lusi moves eastwards, northwest gales are likely in parts of central New Zealand. Warnings are already in place for Marlborough, Wellington and southern Wairarapa for Sunday evening to Monday morning, hence high confidence is indicated in those areas, and there is moderate confidence of severe northwest gales in parts of Canterbury too. The trend, however, is for winds to ease during Monday.

The moist northwest winds also bring continued rain for northern Westland,Buller and northwest Nelson, and there is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain in these areas through Monday morning.

From about midday Monday, a new front moves onto the lower South Island,bringing more heavy rain, and there is moderate confidence of significant heavy rain in Fiordland and Westland from Monday into Tuesday.

Finally, a second front should reach Fiordland later on Wednesday, and at this stage we have low confidence of rainfall totals meeting warning criteria there.

map showing severe weather outlook

Low confidence:
a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence:
a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
High confidence:
a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30NZST

You can view the latest Severe Weather Video update here: http://metservice.com/tv/#severe

Please stay up to date with all the latest Severe Warnings and Watches

(All images in this section: metservice.com) (Click on images to link to source)

Press Reports

Australia Network News

Strong wind warnings in place in New Zealand as ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi passes North Island

 

Photo: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi brings strong and gale force winds to New Zealand’s North Island, March 15, 2014. (MetService)

 

New Zealand’s weather bureau has issued strong wind and gale force wind warnings as ex-tropical cyclone Lusi moves over the North Island.

The Met Service says wind gusts of around 130 kilometres an hour have been recorded at Cape Reinga, on the northwest tip of the North Island.

Auckland has experienced wind gusts of almost 90 kilometres an hour.

There have also been heavy rainfalls overnight on the North Island, and warnings are in place for the South Island as the depression moves south.

The weather system is expected to cross the South Island on Sunday then weaken as it moves east on Monday.

So far, 10 people have died and two are missing in Vanuatu after Cyclone Lusi hit the Pacific nation.

Shadrack Welegtabit, the director of the National Disaster Management Office in Port Vila says another tropical low is forming in the east of the country.

While it is developing, it is not expected to become a cyclone soon.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says cyclone Lusi caused widespread flooding and damaged crops.

ABC/AFP

MARITIME

New Zealand

Coastal Storm Warnings

Storm warnings for: CASTLEPOINT, CONWAY, COOK

Coastal Gale Warnings

Gale warnings for: ABEL, BRETT, CHALMERS, COLVILLE, GREY, KAIPARA, PLENTY, PORTLAND, RAGLAN, RANGITATA, STEPHENS

Auckland VHF

GALE WARNING A23 FOR MANUKAU AND WAITEMATA HARBOURS, AND THE HAURAKI GULF
Northeast 35 knots gusting 45 knots easing to northerly 25 knots gusting 35 knots this morning and below advisory criteria this afternoon.
GALE WARNING A23 FOR BREAM HEAD TO CAPE COLVILLE
Northeast 40 knots gusting 50 knots easing to northerly 25 knots gusting 35 knots this morning and below advisory criteria this afternoon.
This warning cancels and replaces ADVISORY A20

Oceanic Warnings

High seas warnings for: FORTIES, PACIFIC, SOUTHERN, SUBTROPIC

METAREA XIV

PassageWeather the FREE sailing weather website

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Tongatapu/ Tonga: Tropical Cyclone 15F KOFI 011800Z nr 22.3S 175.4W, moving SW at 12 knots (RSMC Nadi) – Published 010314 2315z

TROPICAL CYCLONE 15F Intensity Category 1

(RSMC NADI)

Tropical Cyclone Kofi 16P Sixteen (JTWC)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP AND IS NOW
CANCELLED FOR THE HAAPAI GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR REST OF TONGA.

===================

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICALCYCLONEFORECASTTRACKMAP

Tropical Cyclone KOFI

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 10 issued 1920 UTC Saturday 1 March 2014

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadis best estimate of the cyclones future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:Tropical Cyclone KOFI

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 6 pm March 1 1 22.3S 175.4W 110
+6hr 12 am March 2 1 22.9S 174.9W 140
+12hr 6 am March 2 2 23.6S 174.3W 165
+18hr 12 pm March 2 2 24.2S 173.7W 195
+24hr 6 pm March 2 1 25.1S 172.8W 220
+36hr 6 am March 3 1 27.2S 170.5W 280
+48hr 6 pm March 3 tropical low 29.9S 167.6W 345
+60hr 6 am March 4 tropical low 33.1S 164.3W 430
+72hr 6 pm March 4 tropical low 37.3S 160.9W 520

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Forecast Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 01/1923 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CENTRE 990HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3S
175.4W AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
EASTERN SEMICRICLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL OF CENTRE MILES ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 3.0, MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED
ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 23.6S 174.3W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 25.1S 172.8W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 27.2S 170.5W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 29.9S 167.6W MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 020200 UTC.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE for Tonga ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
KOFI ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 01/2239 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP AND IS NOW
CANCELLED FOR THE HAAPAI GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR REST OF TONGA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CATEGORY 1 CENTRE [988HPA] LOCATED NEAR 22
DECIMAL 8 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF NUKUALOFA AT 012100 UTC.

CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WIND
SPEED UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. THE AVERAGE
WINDS CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS BY
020600UTC. KOFI MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. ON THIS TRACK THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 205 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF NUKUALOFA AT 020900UTC AND ABOUT 330 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUALOFA AT 022100UTC.

DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE
CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVAERAGE SPEEDS OF 45 KNOTS
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. PERIODS
OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
020200UTC OR EARLIER.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1614.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/16P_011732sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KOFI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
011800Z NEAR 22.3S 175.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 175.3W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z 24.4S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z 26.4S 171.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z 28.4S 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z 30.8S 165.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 174.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (KOFI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011653Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NFTF (21.2S 175.1W), APPROXIMATELY
70 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER, INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 28 KNOTS GUSTING TO 48 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP NEAR 993
MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC
16P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 24 AS IT
BEGINS TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW SITUATED
BETWEEN THE STR AND AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU
24, TC 16P SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST,
WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES FULLY-EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
NNNN.

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Mar, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KOFI (16P) currently located near 20.2 S 176.7 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME

STORM WARNING 004 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 01/1911 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3
SOUTH 175.4 WEST AT 011800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.3S 175.4W AT 011800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 020600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.6S 174.3W AT 020600 UTC
AND NEAR 25.1S 172.8W AT 021800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 003.

South West Pacific Marine

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Mar 012000 UTC. PART 1 : WARNING STORM WARNING 004 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 01/1911 UTC 2014 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3 SOUTH 175.4 WEST AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR.REPEAT POSITION 22.3S 175.4W AT 011800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 020600 UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.6S 174.3W AT 020600 UTC AND NEAR 25.1S 172.8W AT 021800 UTC. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Mar 021800 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 ANALYSED NEAR 22.3S 175.4W AT 011800UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ 05S 178E 08S 178W 13S 173W 16S 172W 21S 172W 25S 175W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 13S OF CZ. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 004. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. TROUGH T1 11S 160E 13S 165E 14S 175E 15S 180 17S 178W TO TC KOFI. T1 SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1 IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 17S OF T1. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1 OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 004 AND SOUTH OF 12S OF T1. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. TROUGH T2 15S 147W 20S 139W 25S 135W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. STATIONARY FRONT SF 20S 175E 25S 177W. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OF SF IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 23S OF SF. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOME SHOWERS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA 004 IN THE AREA BETWEEN 175E AND 168W AND SOUTH OF 15S EXPECT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. IN THE AREA BETWEEN EQT AND 07S AND BETWEEN 172E AND 160W, EXPECT MDERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS. ROUGH SEAS

Tsunami in Solomon Islands after mag 8.0 Earthquake nr Santa Cruz Islands, 9 dead, several missing. 100 homes damaged or destroyed – 070213 1540z

A tsunami has struck the eastern Solomon Islands after a powerful earthquake that briefly triggered warnings for several South Pacific nations.

The magnitude 8.0 quake near the Santa Cruz Islands is reported to have destroyed at least three villages. Officials in the Solomon Islands say there may be casualties.

The U.S. Geological Survey says a tsunami measuring 0.9 meters hit the town of Lata in the Santa Cruz Island chain in the eastern part of the Solomon Islands.

Officials say the wave swept half a kilometer inland, destroying homes and sending panicked residents fleeing to higher ground.

Solomon Islands Police Commissioner John Lansley says authorities are trying to establish how much damage the tsunami has caused.

“We believe that three, possibly four villages have been affected,” said Lansley.

“The severity we are not clear about and I do not want to speculate, but we are doing our utmost to establish a little bit more information about the effects of the surge wave. We also are not clear
on casualties, although we believe there may be casualties.”

Wednesday, 06 February, 2013 at 10:50 UTC RSOE

Update 07 Feb 2013:

Aid workers struggled to reach remote, tsunami-ravaged villages in the Solomon Islands on Thursday, as the death toll rose with more bodies found in wrecked homes and debris in the South Pacific island chain.

At least nine people, including a child, were killed when a powerful earthquake set off a small tsunami that sent 4 foot, 11-inch waves roaring inland on Santa Cruz Island, in the eastern Solomons, on Wednesday.

Around 100 homes across five villages were damaged or destroyed. The waves proved deadly for five elderly villagers and a child who weren’t fast enough to outrun the rushing water, said George Herming, a spokesman for the prime minister. Three more bodies were found Thursday, but Herming said details of how those victims died were not immediately available.

Several others are missing and dozens of strong aftershocks were keeping frightened villagers from returning to the coast, Herming said. “People are still scared of going back to their homes because there’s nothing left, so they are residing in temporary shelters on higher ground,” Herming said. The tsunami was generated by an 8.0-magnitude earthquake that struck near the town of Lata, on Santa Cruz in Temotu, the easternmost province in the Solomons. Disaster officials were en route to the isolated area Thursday after the local airport, which was flooded by the tsunami, was finally cleared of debris.

Thursday, 07 February, 2013 at 09:11 UTC RSOE

News Reports:

Quake off Solomon Islands triggers deadly tsunami

BBC NEWS 6 February 2013 Last updated at 09:23

Map locator

Homes were damaged and at least five people have been reported dead after a tsunami triggered by an undersea earthquake hit the Solomon Islands.

The quake, with a magnitude 8.0, struck at 01:12 GMT near the Santa Cruz islands, the US Geological Survey said.

A tsunami measuring 0.9m (3ft) then hit Lata on eastern Santa Cruz island, swamping the island’s airport.

A tsunami warning was triggered for several Pacific nations, but was cancelled about two hours later.

Lata is the main town on Santa Cruz, also known as Nendo. It is the largest island in the Santa Cruz island chain, part of the Solomon Islands nation.

The worst of the damage was said to have been on the western coast of Santa Cruz, with one report putting the waves there at 1.5m.

Medical staff at Lata hospital said five people had been killed – four elderly people and one young boy.

But director of nursing Augustine Pilve told New Zealand television that number could rise.

“It’s more likely that other villages along the coast of Santa Cruz may be affected,” he said.

Robert Iroga, press secretary to the Solomons prime minister, told the BBC that the waves west of Lata had travelled some 500m inland, and that three villages had been damaged.

Many of the homes in the area were semi-permanent, he said, and were reported to have been flattened.

Police were travelling to the area, he said, and the priority was to ensure the local airport is functioning so aid and supplies can be flown in.

Another government spokesman, George Herming, said reports suggested that between 60 to 70 homes have been damaged in four villages on Santa Cruz Islands.

“At this stage, authorities are still trying to establish the exact number and extent of damage,” he told AFP, adding that communications with the islands was difficult because of their remoteness.

House in Solomon Islands (file image) Officials said many of the “semi-permanent” houses in the area may have been flattened

‘No threat’

Initial reports by the USGS said the quake had a shallow depth of 5.8km (3.6 miles) but it later revised the figure to 28.7km (17.8 miles).

Luke Taula, a fisheries officer in Lata, told Reuters news agency the wave came as several small tidal surges.

“We have small waves come in, then go out again, then come back in. The waves have reached the airport terminal,” he told the news agency.

Tsunami warnings were issued for the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu, New Caledonia, Kosrae, Fiji, Kiribati, and Wallis and Futuna islands.

But they were later cancelled. by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, which warned that some coastal areas may still experience small changes in sea level.

The Solomon Islands form part of the Ring Of Fire, a zone of volcanic arcs and oceanic trenches encircling the Pacific basin.

The 8.0 earthquake was followed by several aftershocks, the largest measuring 6.6 magnitude.

The region has been experiencing a series of smaller quakes in recent days.

In 2007 an 8.1 magnitude earthquake triggered a tsunami that killed at least 52 people in the Solomons and left thousands homeless.” – BBC News

Tropical Cyclone #EVAN CAT 1 (SS-TS) 190900Z nr 23.7S 178.3E, moving SSE at 07 knots (JTWC) Weakening. 191212 1535z

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

(Image: JTWC)
TC Warning Graphic
(Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click imagefor source)

(Image: met.gov.fj) TC Evan Uncertainty Track Map (Click image for source)

(Image: mnre.gov.ws) Actual Track (Click image for source)

(See press reports at bottom of page)

List of Fiji evacuation centres (Scroll down)

Tropical cyclone scales

From Wikipedia

Tropical systems are officially ranked on one of several tropical cyclone scales according to their maximum sustained winds and in what oceanic basin they are located.� More here

FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWENTY (20) FOR SAMOA
ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 142100 UTC OR 11:00 A.M
SATURDAY 15TH DECEMBER 2012

………….. Gale warning is now Cancelled for Savaii..

………….. Wind advisory remains in effect for all Samoa coastal waters ..

.. Flood Advisory remains in effect for low lying areas due to heavy rain at times.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan was located at about 12.55 south, 173.92 west or 95 miles northwest of Asau, 107 miles west-northwest of Avao or 146 miles west-northwest of Apia at 142100 UTC or 11:00 a.m. this morning. Tropical Cyclone Evan continues to move west at 8 mph away from Samoa while damaging storm surges continues to affects Samoa open waters.

Forecast

For Upolu: Northeast winds of 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph at times.
Poor visibility in rain. Seas very rough with damaging storm surges from the north of 12-14 feet. Isolated showers, moderate to heavy falls possible with a few thunderstorms.

For Savaii: North to Northeast winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph at times.
Poor visibility in heavy rain. Seas very rough with damaging storm surges north to northwest swells of 12-16 feet. Scattered showers, with possible heavy falls and a few thunderstorms.

Normal Weather Bulletin will be issued at 4.00 p.m. today.

LIPOTI FAAPITOA MULMULI NUMERA LUASEFULU (20) MO SAMOA
SAUNIA E LE OFISA VAAI TAU I APIA ILE ITULA E 11:00 ILE TAEAO NEI
ASO TOONAI 15, TESEMA 2012

.. Lapataiga mo matagi malolosi ua faa-le-aogaina mo Savaii ..

……… O fautuaga mo savili malolosi o loo faamalosia pea mo gataifale uma o Samoa ..

. Fautuaga mo lologa o loo faamalosia pea mo nofoaga maualalalo ona ole mamafa o timuga i nisi o taimi..

O le Afa malosi o Evan sa iai lea e tusa ma le 95 maila i matu I sisifo o Asau, 107 maila i sisifo-matu i sisifo o Avao poo le 146 maila i sisifo-matu i sisifo o Apia ile itula e 11:00 ile taeao nei . Ole Afa o Evan o loo agai ese atu nei i sisifo ma Samoa ile saoasaoa e 8 maila ile itula, peitai o galu afa o loo aafia ai pea ogasami taalaelae ole Atunuu.

Tala ole Tau:

Mo Upolu: O matagi o le Vai-Toelau e 10-20 maila ile itula, ma matagi to faatautau e oo atu ile 30 maila i nisi o taimi.
E puaoa i timuga. Ole sami e matua sousou ma galu afa mai i matu i sisifo e oo atu ile 12-14 futu le maualuluga. E toulu vava solo ai timu ma e ono feololo mamafa i nisi o nofoaga faapea nai uila ma faititili.

Mo Savaii: O matagi o le Toelau agai ile Vaitoelau e 15-25 maila ile itula, ma e faatautau i nisi o taimi. E puaoa i timuga. O le sami e matua sousou ma galu afa matu i sisifo e 12-16 futu le maualuluga. E taape solo timu ma e mamafa i nisi o vaega faapea nai uila ma faititili.

O le isi Lipoti ole Tau masani ole a maua atu ile itula e 4:00 ile afiafi.

Humanity Road: Situation Reports & vital emergency information for Samoa: bit.ly/SXAPeO

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Evan – Fiji Meteorological Service

FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
PRIVATE MAIL BAG (NAP 0351)
NADI AIRPORT , FIJI
Telephone: 679 – 6724888 Facsimile : 679 – 6720430 (HQ), 6736047 (Climate) E-mail : fms@met.gov.fj
679 – 6720190 (NWFC, RSMC) Web Site : http://www.met.gov.fj
MEDIA RELEASE
4pm Tuesday 18th December 2012
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN
Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan [970 hPa] Category (CAT) 3 centre was located near 20.3
South latitude and 177.5 East longitude or about 285km south of Nadi or 160 km south-
southwest of Kadavu at 2pm DST Tuesday 18th December. It is now moving towards the
south-southeast at 15 km/hr and beginning to weaken. Close to the centre, maximum
sustained winds are estimated around 80 knots (150 km/hr).
Evan is heading further away from Fiji and no longer poses any direct threat to the country.
However, strong winds to 50km/hr with momentary gusts to 85 km/hr are still expected
especially over Kadavu, but gradually easing to fresh and gusty. Seas will be rough with
moderate to heavy swells. Cloudy periods with some showers about the eastern half of Fiji. Fine
elsewhere apart from a few cloudy periods.
At this time, it should be noted that Flood Warnings are still valid for the low-lying areas about
and near the Nayavu River, Navolau River, Nabukaluka River, Nairukuruku River and Rewa
River.
While TC Evan is not a threat to Fiji anymore, all communities are still urged to heed warnings,
especially those in the Central and Eastern parts of Viti Levu, with the real threat of river
flooding.

For further information please visit FMSs web site: http://www.met.gov.fj
ENDS

Latest_Media_Release

https://i2.wp.com/www.met.gov.fj/radar/RDR30/latest.gif

(Image: met.gov.fj/)
LABASA RADAR
(Click image for animation/source)

A Tropical Cyclone will be categorised as per the Australian and South Pacific Category System

Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale
Category Sustained
winds
Gusts
Five >107 kt
>200 km/h
>151 kt
>279 km/h
Four 86-107 kt
160-200 km/h
122-151 kt
225-279 km/h
Three 64-85 kt
118-159 km/h
90-121 kt
165-224 km/h
Two 48-63 kt
89-117 km/h
68-89 kt
125-164 km/h
One 34-47 kt
63-88 km/h
49-67 kt
91-125 km/h
Tropical
Low
<34 kt
<63 km/h
<49 kt
<91 km/h

https://i2.wp.com/www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/images/faq/category-comparison.png

GALE WARNING 049 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 19/0715 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE 987HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0
SOUTH 178.0 EAST AT 190600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 23.0S 178.0E at 190600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 4 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO
35 KNOTS BY 191800 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.3S 177.8E AT 191800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 048.

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTY SEVEN FOR FIJI ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 3:44pm on Tuesday the 18th of December 2012
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR KADAVU IS
NOW BEING CANCELLED

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR KADAVU.
A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR MAMANUCA
GROUP, SOUTHWEST VITI LEVU, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS IS NOW
BEING CANCELLED.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE [970HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 5 EAST OR ABOUT 190 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADAVU. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 15
KM/HR AWAY FROM KADAVU. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UPTO 150 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 210
KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY CAUSE GALES
OVER KADAVU.

FOR KADAVU:
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 45 TO 55 KM/HR
AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KM/HR. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN EASING TOMORROW.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE TO FRESH WEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS, GUSTY AT TIMES. OCCASIONAL
RAIN, EASING FROM THE WEST FROM TOMORROW. POSSIBLE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN VITI LEVU.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS.
FOR KADAVU AND VATU-I-RA PASSAGES, KORO SEA AND SOUTHWEST VITI LEVU
WATERS: WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS: WEST OT NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH
SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE EVAN. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 7:30 PM
TONIGHT.

WXFJ02 NFFN 191230

Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHTEEN FOR FLOOD ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 01:30AM
on Thursday the 20th December 2012

FLOOD WARNING

THE FLOOD WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR LOW LYING AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM NAVOLAU VILLAGE,
REWA RIVER AND ALL LOW LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE REWA RIVER IS NOW CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ON FLOOD.

Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT for Tonga ON SEVERE TROPICAL
CYCLONE EVAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 14/1537 UTC 2012 UTC.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NIUAFO’OU IS NOW
CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND IS NOW IN
FORCE FOR NIUAFO’OU.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE [960HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 12 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 173 DECIMAL 6 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES
NORTHEAST OF NIUAFO’OU AT 141500 UTC. POSITION GOOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVAN IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY
GUSTS TO 120 KNOTS.

ON THIS TRACK, TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY
CAUSE GALES OVER NIUAFO’OU MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
NIUAFO’OU.

FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND NIUAFO’OU:
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, BECOMING
FREQUENT AND HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS. BRIEF SHOWERS. ROUGH SEAS.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN AND THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE THE ROUTINE
BULLETIN TO BE ISSUED BY THE TONGA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

Meteo France Wallis & Futuna

Phnomnes
cycloniques en cours

Pas de phnomne en cours dans notre zone

No phenomenon going on in our area

NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories at this time. 18 DEC 2012 1135Z

FUAAMOTU TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER

Tropical Cyclone Evan Alert cancelled

Sunday, 16 December 2012 21:14
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16 December 2012 The Tonga Meteorological Services Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre has lifted the Cyclone Alert for the Niuas as revealed in latest weather forecast from Fua’amotu, this Sunday evening.WEATHER FORECAST ISSUED FROM THE NWFC FUA’AMOTU AT 7:15PM SUNDAY 16 DECEMBER 2012.PUBLIC WEATHER BULLETINWARNINGS: A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE LAND AREAS OF TONGA.SITUATIONSEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN [960HPA]CATEGORY 4 CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 9 WEST AT 6:00PM. TROPICAL CYCLONE EVANIS MOVING WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 25KM/HR. AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED TO ABOUT 165 KM/H WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO ABOUT 230 KM/HR.FORECAST TO MIDNIGHT TOMORROW FOR TONGAMODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT THE NIUAS. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER NIUA.ELSEWHERE, CLOUDY PERIODS WTH A FEW SHOWERS.FOR MONDAY:MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER TONGATAPU AND EUA. ELSEWHERE MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.CLOUDY PERIODS WITH BREIF SHOWERS.TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NUKUALOFA:MAX:29 DEGREE CELCIUS TOMORROWMIN:24 DEGREE CELCIUS TONIGHT……………………………………………………………….MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGAWARNINGS:A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA COASTAL WATERS.FOR THE TWO NIUAS:EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS.A HEAVY SWELLS.FOR THE REST OF TONGA GROUP:EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. A MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELLS.OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY:EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS OVER TONGATAPU.ELSEWHERE15-20 KNOTS EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.HIGH TIDE:09:55PMLOW TIDE:04:15AM 17/12/2012.MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT FUAAMOTU AT 7:15PM WAS 1011.6 MILLIBARS………………………………………………………………….SV/TT/=ENDS

Latest Tropical Cyclone Evan Alert for Niuafo’ou

…………………………………………………………………

Cyclone Evan Stalled Over Samoa

December 13, 2012 at 7:34 pm AUS time

http://28storms.com/cyclone:

“We have reached the midnight hour in Samoa, and Cyclone Evan is hammering the area with strong winds and heavy rainfall. The latest satellite imagery shows that the eye of the storm is nearly stationary as it wobbles along the Upolu coast. The eye also appears to be better defined compared to six hours ago, which is a sign of more strengthening. More intensification into a significant cyclone is expected over the next 1-2 days. Low vertical wind shear and favorable sea surface temperatures are a recipe for rapid development, especially when the inner core of a tropical cyclone is already well-established. The greatest threats to loss of life will be inland freshwater flooding and coastal water rise. Perhaps even unprecedented rainfall totals may occur, especially in higher elevations. Mudslides and river flooding are ongoing dangers. Storm surge values along the coastal areas may exceed 10-12 feet as the cyclone gains strength.”

16 Dec 2012:

SS Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan bearing down on Fiji

Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:19 PM GMT on December 16, 2012

“Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan is closing in on the main island of Fiji, where hurricane warnings are flying and torrential rains are already falling. Radar images from Fiji show that the large eye of Evan is just north of the two main islands of Fiji. The expected southwesterly track of the storm should keep the calm of the eye just north of Fiji, though the southern eyewall may brush the north coast of the main island of Vici Leva, affecting the tourist town of Nadi. Evan has intensified today to its strongest level yet, with 120 mph winds, and satellite loops show that the storm remains well-organized, with plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity and a prominent eye. Evan will be in a region with moderate wind shear of 15 – 20 knots as it approaches Fiji, and could intensify by another 5 – 10 mph before making its closest pass to the islands later today. According to NOAA’s Coastal Services Center, Evan is the strongest tropical cyclone to threaten Fiji since Tropical Cyclone Daman of December 2007. Dating back to 1972, twelve Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones have threatened the Republic of Fiji.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Fiji weather service showing the large eye of Tropical Cyclone Evan just north of Fiji.

Severe damage in Samoa from Evan
Evan made landfall on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia on Thursday as a Category 1 cyclone with 90 mph winds, and intensified into a Category 3 storm with 115 mph after the eye wandered back offshore late Thursday. Media reports indicate that Evan killed four and has left eight missing on Samoa, and left at least 4,000 homeless. The main power plant for Samoa was destroyed, and it is expected that power will be out to almost all of Samoa for at least ten more days. Evan was one of Samoa’s most destructive tropical cyclones on record, as discussed by wunderground’s weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Evan nearing Fiji at 01:35 UTC December 16, 2012. At the time, Evan was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters”

TSR logo SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Dec, 2012 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 21.0 S 177.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

No Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere

There are no active tropical warnings in the Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean, Central/Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere at this time.

Last Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Evan

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 12/12/12 14.3S 175.6W 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 12/12/12 14.1S 173.9W 45 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 12/12/12 13.9S 173.2W 60 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 12/12/12 14.1S 172W 75 Category 1
00 GMT 12/13/12 14.1S 171.3W 90 Category 1
06 GMT 12/13/12 13.9S 171.4W 90 Category 1
12 GMT 12/13/12 13.7S 171.6W 105 Category 2
18 GMT 12/13/12 13.4S 171.7W 115 Category 3
00 GMT 12/14/12 13S 172.1W 115 Category 3
06 GMT 12/14/12 12.9S 172.5W 115 Category 3
12 GMT 12/14/12 12.6S 173W 115 Category 3
18 GMT 12/14/12 12.3S 174W 115 Category 3
06 GMT 12/15/12 13S 175.6W 105 Category 2
18 GMT 12/15/12 13.4S 177.7W 115 Category 3
06 GMT 12/16/12 14.9S 179.9W 120 Category 3
18 GMT 12/16/12 16.4S 178.3E 135 Category 4
06 GMT 12/17/12 17.9S 177.3E 135 Category 4
18 GMT 12/17/12 19.7S 177.2E 120 Category 3
06 GMT 12/18/12 21S 177.1E 110 Category 2
18 GMT 12/18/12 22.3S 177.4E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 12/19/12 22.3S 177.4E 75 Category 1
06 GMT 12/19/12 23.4S 178.2E 50 Tropical Storm

Other:

Humanity Road Situation Report & vital emergency information for Samoi: http://bit.ly/SXAPeO

New Zealand Red Cross:

We are currently on standby with personnel and equipment, ready to respond to Tropical Cyclone #Evan if required.

Red Cross (IFRC) spokesman in Asia-Pacific, Patrick Fuller: Fiji on high alert as #Cyclone #Evan bears down this weekend. 100mph winds expected with a storm surge and heavy rains

List of evacuation centres in Northern Division, Fiji: on.fb.me/V1A315

List of evacuation centres open in Western Division, #Fiji: http://bit.ly/VK972g

Check out http://www.natadolabeach.com to see the live stream from Natadola Bay, Fiji

20 Dec 2012 (GMT):

New Zealand

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.

ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:10 pm 20-Dec-2012

A period of heavy rain for the ranges of Westland

A front over the Tasman Sea is expected to move northwards across the South Island on Friday, preceded by strong moist northerlies. Heavy rain is likely to fall in Fiordland and the Westland ranges, with the largest accumulations expected in the Westland ranges where 100mm of rain is possible during Friday morning and afternoon. People are advised rivers and streams may rise rapidly, slips and surface flooding are possible.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED

The ranges of Westland south of Otira

FORECAST

Rain is expected to develop Friday morning. In the 15 hours from 3am to 6pm Friday, expect 70 to 100mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 15 to 20mm per hour late Friday morning and early afternoon.

FREEZING LEVEL: About 3300 metres.

NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00 am Friday 21-Dec-2012

 

Funded by NZ Government

Press reports:

12 Dec 2012:

Tropical Storm Evan

A tropical cyclone is expected to hit Samoa today with wind speeds over 80km/h. Cyclone Evan emerged yesterday when a tropical depression deepened 300km southwest of Apia and moved eastward toward the city.

The Fiji Meteorological Service said the tropical cyclone would be sitting right over Samoa about midday.

An Air NZ spokeswoman said last night that there were no planned disruptions to flights from New Zealand at this stage, but this could be revised as the storm hit.

The Fiji Met Service expects the cyclone to intensify to a category 2 as it changes direction and moves away from Samoa tomorrow. Fiji is preparing for the cyclone to arrive on Sunday.

Fiji Met Service director Alipate Waqaicelua told the Fiji Times that residents need “to be prepared and ready, now”.

Fiji police spokeswoman Ana Naisoro called out to mariners to “please take the weather advisories seriously”.

She said parents needed to keep a close watch on their children. The Nadi weather office was issuing warnings of heavy rain and flash-floods.

“There are hidden threats which could result in tragic incidents which is why supervision during this time is vital.”

Wednesday, 12 December, 2012 at 18:06 (06:06 PM) UTC RSOE

Samoa on alert as Tropical Cyclone Evan approaches

Australia News Network

“Storm, hurricane and flood warnings have been issued for Samoa as Tropical Cyclone Evan moves closer to the island group.

Cyclone Evan emerged yesterday when a tropical depression deepened 300km southwest of Apia and moved eastward toward the city.

It is centred about 60 nautical miles west of Apia and if it maintains its current course will come within five kilometres of Apia at 2:00 PM local time.

Cyclone Evan has winds of 88 kilometres an hour near its centre, is likely to produce a storm surge of more than three metres and is producing heavy rain.

Samoa Metservice forecaster Mulipola Austalia Titimaea has told Radio Australia’s Pacific Beat program the island is bracing for higher winds.

“We are also standing by in areas for a hurricane watch – if conditions warrant we could issue a warning for hurricane force winds,” he said.

“At the moment as it stands, we are still maintaining a warning for storm force winds, which is up to 70 miles per hour.

Evan is the first named cyclone of the South Pacific�s summer cyclone season.

The UN Disaster Management Office in Samoa, and the country’s disaster advisory committee have met to discuss the potential impact and necessary preparedness measures.

Mulipola Austalia Titimaea says the storm at the moment is a ‘midget’ size Category 1 storm, but it could be upgraded.

“There is a possibility on the current forecast track that it will pass just north-east of the island group,” he said.

“At the moment some of our observation stations are experiencing gale force winds – mainly in the exposed coastal areas and highlands.”

Schools in neighbouring American Samoa will also close early as a precaution.

Forecasters say if the cyclone continues to track east before turning south-west, it is less likely to affect parts of northern Tonga and eastern Fiji.

Fiji’s Met Service is expecting Cyclone Evan to reach there on Sunday, and has warned residents to be prepared.” – ANN

13 Dec 2012:

Two killed as tropical Cyclone Evan hits Samoa

ABC NEWS

Tiavi area, Cross Island Road as Samoa experiences Cyclone Evan

Photo: Tiavi area, Cross Island Road as Samoa experiences Cyclone Evan (Facebook: Anna Aiolupotea via GoTheManu)

Two people have been confirmed dead as Cyclone Evan causes widespread destruction around the Samoan capital of Apia.

The category-two storm made landfall in Apia earlier today, bringing heavy rainfall and winds of up to 110 kilometres per hour.

A state of disaster has now been declared.

Homes and crops have been destroyed, rivers flooded, trees and power lines toppled, roads cut and office buildings damaged.

The cyclone, thought to be one of the most powerful to hit the Pacific nation in 20 years, also forced the closure of the airport.

Storm and flood warnings have been issued, with forecasts that it will cause a sea surge of more than three metres along the Samoan coast.

Evan is expected to make landfall in neighbouring American Samoa tonight.

Neville Koop, the meteorology and climate adviser to the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Program, has told Radio Australia that Evan is expected to eventually head south towards Fiji, which is also preparing for rough weather.

Earlier today, Samoa Metservice forecaster Mulipola Austalia Titimaea told Radio Australia’s Pacific Beat program that the capital was experiencing high winds.

“At the moment some of our observation stations are experiencing gale-force winds, mainly in the exposed coastal areas and highlands.”

Some damage has already been reported at Apia’s airport, including a collapsed walkway.

Local reporter Cherelle Jackson says trees have been torn down in Apia and there has been flash flooding across Apia.

“There has been flash flooding all over town, blocking the roads, and people have been kept from their homes,” she told Pacific Beat, adding that emergency services were working to clear the roads.

“Just where I am two of our neighbours have evacuated. Their houses have been flattened. Power poles are down, breadfruit trees, taro trees, banana trees – the staple of part of our diet, they’re just all over the road.”

Monica Miller, Radio Australia’s reporter in Pago Pago, says people have been boarding up their homes and schools are closed.

“Some of the people started making preparations yesterday, while others started this morning,” she said.

“There are designated shelters, usually church halls, that people can go to if they are inundated.”

Evan is the first named cyclone of the South Pacific’s summer cyclone season.

The UN Disaster Management Office in Samoa and the country’s disaster advisory committee have met to discuss the potential impact and necessary preparedness measures.” – ABC News


australianetworknews Published on Dec 13, 2012

Samoan journalist Cherelle Jackson describes how Cyclon Evan left a trail of destruction through the capital Apia.


(Credit: Youtube user ulupoo12)

Red Cross (IFRC) spokesman in Asia-Pacific, Patrick Fuller@Pat_Fuller: #cyclone #evan causes 4.5 m storm surge in Samoa. Capital Apia largely evacuated as storm doubles back with 195 kph winds.

Samoa has issued a disaster declaration after assessing initial damage caused by Tropical Cyclone Evan.

The storm with its sustained winds of 90 kilometres an hour, and gusts to 130 kilometres per hour has brought heavy rain and storm surges of up to three metres.

Cyclone Evan is expected to move back west and affect Tonga and Fiji.

The Samoa Disaster Management Office says at this stage it can cope with the clean-up out of existing funds and does not need international assistance.

A spokesperson, Filamena Nelson says the main problems are fallen trees with many obstructing roads and bringing power lines down cutting electricity. She says some homes have been damaged by the trees but there are no reports of deaths or injuries.

“Our Deputy Prime Minister just signed a Declaration of Disaster which is made under our Disaster and Emergency Management Act 2007 and this is effective for forty eight hours. The extension of that will very much depend on the situation.”

Filamena Nelson says the whole of Samoa has been affected by high winds and surface flooding.

The terminal at Faleolo airport has suffered some damage but the runway is intact.

Air New Zealand says its Auckland-Apia flight this morning was cancelled and weather permitting, a special charter flight is planned for Friday to accommodate disrupted passengers.

Our correspondent in American Samoa, Monica Miller says the streets of Pago Pago are quiet and people are anxious as they wait to see if the cyclone will hit the Territory as predicted.

“The town is emptying out as people head home.

The American Samoa Government has closed down.

A lot of companies are also closed, the banks are closed, the Post Office is closed.

Starkist Samoa has now also, this is the biggest employer with two thousand emplyees has just now announced that they have closed for today and tomorrow.”

Fiji’s Meteorological Service says Cyclone Evan may well become more intense as it turns towards Tonga and Fiji.

The Director of the Met Service Alipate Waqaicelua says Tonga’s northern islands, Niuatoputapu and Niuafo’ou, are being warned of damaging gale force winds within the next two days.

He says Fiji may be directly affected on Sunday.

“The land mass of Samoa has interfered with the intensity and its structure so it might appear it had weakened but we expect this cyclone to retain a category two or even intensify further as it turns toward the west and heads towards Tonga and Fiji.”

Alipate Waqaicelua says high and damaging sea swells are a feature of the cyclone and marine warnings are in place.

Spokesman from the Tonga Disaster Office says an official is meeting a committee up north to help with preparations of the cyclone’s approach, where up to a thousand people could be affected.

Thursday, 13 December, 2012 at 04:05 UTC RSOE

Samoa braces for second hit from Cyclone Evan

ABC NEWS

“Samoa is bracing for a second hit from Cyclone Evan, which has claimed at least two lives in the South Pacific nation.

The Samoan government has declared a state of disaster after winds of up to 160 kilometres-an-hour and heavy rain lashed the island nation.

New Zealand’s High Commissioner to Samoa, Nick Hurley, says that in the capital Apia power has been cut, buildings damaged and trees felled.

Mr Hurley says cyclonic conditions are resuming as Evan heads for Samoa again. It is then expected to intensify as it moves towards Tonga and Fiji.

Thought to be one of the most powerful to hit the Pacific nation in 20 years, the cyclone has forced the closure of the airport.

A local journalist says police have rescued people from homes along a flooded river, while several others are reported missing.

There has been flash flooding all over town, blocking the roads, and people have been kept from their homes.

Just where I am two of our neighbours have evacuated. Their houses have been flattened.

Power poles are down, breadfruit trees, taro trees, banana trees – the staple of part of our diet, they’re just all over the road.

Samoan reporter Cherelle Jackson

On Thursday, local reporter Cherelle Jackson described the destruction in Apia.

“There has been flash flooding all over town, blocking the roads, and people have been kept from their homes,” Ms Jackson told Pacific Beat, adding that emergency services were working to clear the roads.

“Just where I am two of our neighbours have evacuated. Their houses have been flattened.

“Power poles are down, breadfruit trees, taro trees, banana trees – the staple of part of our diet, they’re just all over the road.”

Monica Miller, Radio Australia’s reporter in Pago Pago, said people were boarding up their homes and schools were closed.

“Some of the people started making preparations yesterday, while others started this morning,” she said.

“There are designated shelters, usually church halls, that people can go to if they are inundated.”

Evan is the first named cyclone of the South Pacific’s summer cyclone season.” – ABC News

Met Office News Blog: Cyclone Evan strikesSamoa

“Towards the end of every year tropical storm activity moves from the northern hemisphere to the southern hemisphere. The South Indian Ocean has already spawned three tropical storms including the unusually strong early season Cyclone Anais in October. Attention has now switched to the South Pacific Ocean and Cyclone Evan.

Evan formed near Fiji a few days ago and moved north-east as it strengthened. As it reached the equivalent ofhurricane intensity (winds near 75 mph) it made landfall over Samoa close to the capital city of Apia. Although winds of this strength are not exceptional for a cyclone, first reports indicateconsiderable wind damage and flooding from a storm surge of 12-15 feet (3.5-4.5 m). This storm surge is of similar height to that experienced in New York City during Superstorm Sandy in October.

Visible satellite image of Cyclone Evan on 12 December 2012

Visible satellite image of Cyclone Evan on 12 December 2012

Although Samoa lies within the cyclone belt of the South Pacific Ocean, the island nation has been relatively storm free for many years. Cyclone Heta passed close by in 2003, but the last time Samoa received direct strikes from tropical storms was in 1997 and 1998 by storms named Tui and, coincidentally, Evan.

To make matters worse, Cyclone Evan is expectedto become slow moving near Samoa and American Samoa, producing large amounts of rainfall, before turning back south-west. Latest forecasts suggest Evan will strengthen some more and could threaten a strike on Fiji early next week.

Regional warnings for Cyclone Evan are produced by the Fiji Meteorological Service. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are usedalong with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance.

You can keep up to date with tropical cyclones around the world on our website or follow us on Twitter.” – Met Office News Blog

14 Dec 2012:

Disaster declared after deadly Samoan cyclone

7 News By NZ correspondent Dominique Schwartz and wires, ABC Updated December 14, 2012, 6:43 pm

“The Samoan government has declared a state of disaster after Cyclone Evan ravaged the South Pacific nation, destroying buildings and causing flash floods.

Police in Samoa say a number of children are presumed to have drowned after being swept away in a flooded river after the cyclone hit.

Evan made landfall yesterday and caused widespread damage across the country, killing at least two people, cutting power, causing flooding and ripping trees out of the ground.

Locals say it is the worst storm to hit the region in recent years and a state of disaster has been declared.

There are now fears the storm could intensify to a category five cyclone as it tracks across the north of Tonga and then moves onto Fiji.

New Zealand’s high commissioner to Samoa, Nick Hurley, says police have told him a number of children went missing near the main river in Samoa’s capital Apia.

“This is the biggest one I’ve been through and I’ve been through difficult situations in the Pacific (before),” Mr Hurley told Radio New Zealand.

“The unpredictable nature of this one has made it quite different. The forecast winds did not give any indication of how strong the impact was going to be.”

Many places in Samoa have only just rebuilt after being devastated by a tsunami in 2009.

GALLERY: People stand on a destroyed bridge in Samoa’s capital Apia, Friday, after cyclone Evan ripped through the South Pacific island nation. Photo: AAP

“Power is off for the whole country… Tanugamanono power plant is completely destroyed and we might not have power for at least two weeks,” the Disaster Management Office (DMO) said in a statement.

It said hospitals and other essential services were using standby generators, with water supplies also out and most roads cut off by fallen trees and power poles as hundreds of people languished in evacuation centres.

In travel advice, Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs said the cyclone had caused “damage to local services and infrastructure, including communications and electricity services and Faleolo International Airport”.

“The Australian High Commission in Apia has closed until further notice due to storm damage,” it said.

The United Nations says international aid groups are ready to help if needed, with damage from the cyclone worse than expected….” – More from 7 News

A man wades through deep water in Samoa’s capital Apia after Cyclone Evan ravaged the South Pacific Nation. Photo: AAP

Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Evan (TD04F) Situation Report No. 1 (as of 14 Dec 2012)

Report

from UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

Published on 14 Dec 2012

Highlights

  • Tropical Cyclone Evan was stationary over Samoa for approximately 24 hours.
  • The Ministry of Police has confirmed that there have been two casualties.
  • The whole of Samoa is without electricity, which may not be restored for up to two weeks.
  • The whole of Samoa is without water, except for critical services such as the hospital.
  • Tropical Cyclone Evan is predicted to pass close to Niuafoou in northern Tonga as a Category 3 tropical cyclone on Sunday.
  • Tropical Cyclone Evan predicted to pass between the islands of Vanua Levu and Tavauni in Fiji as a Category 4 tropical cyclone early Monday morning.
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs:

To learn more about OCHA’s activities, please visit http://unocha.org/.

Situation Report

Tropical Cyclone Evan – Situation Update No. 2

Extract:

Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Evan
Situation Report No. 2 (as of 15 Dec 2012)

This report is produced by OCHA Regional Office for the Pacific in collaboration with humanitarian partners. It was issued by the OCHA Regional Office for the Pacific. It covers the period from 14 to 15 Dec 2012. The next report will be issued on or around 17 Dec 2012.

Highlights

  • The Ministry of Police in Samoa has confirmed that there have been four casualties and eight people remain missing.
  • The main water treatment plant in Samoa has suffered major damages and access to water is yet to be restored.
  • The island of Upolo in Samoa remains without electricity and reports suggest it may take months to reconnect the entire island.
  • Tropical Cyclone Evan (TC Evan) is forecast to pass Wallis and Futuna as a Category 4 tropical cyclone tonight.
  • A strong wind warning remains in force for islands in northern Tonga.
  • TC Evan is expected to pass northern and western Fiji as a Category 3 tropical cyclone on Monday.

For continuous updates on Tropical Cyclone Evan, please refer to Fiji Meteorological Service.

TCEvan_SitRep2_14Dec.pdf 135.87 KB

Fiji braces for strengthening Cyclone Evan

ABC NEWS

Evacuations have begun in Fiji ahead of the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Evan which has caused widespread damage in Samoa.

The cyclone expected to hit Fiji on Sunday is forecast to intensify into a category four or five storm as it approaches.

A state of disaster has been declared in Samoa after the storm left a trail of destruction and claimed at least two lives, with unconfirmed reports of many others missing.

Addressing the nation ahead of the storm, Fiji’s interim leader Commodore Frank Bainimarama said the cyclone would affect the entire country.

“It has winds up to 180 kilometres per hour which may intensify and, if the weather forecasters are correct, it will affect Fiji in a very damaging way bringing about destructive winds and flooding,” he said.

“Fellow Fijians I cannot stress how serious this is, every Fijian will be affected.”

Mr Bainimarama urged people to remain calm, look after the elderly and disabled, cancel social events, secure their properties and avoid travel and alcohol until the threat is over.

The country’s permanent secretary for information, Sharon Smith-Johns, says many people have fled to higher ground.

“There are people that have already taken precautions, that they know that they live in flood-prone areas and they’re moving to higher ground or moving in with relatives.

“There is quite a lot of movement around Suva especially today and around and in the rural areas.

“All we can do is be prepared here – lucky we’ve had a weeks notice of this all the agencies have been deployed, emergency services on standby, evacuation centres are open, rations have gone out now it’s just a matter of continuing to clean up our own backyards and putting cyclone shutters up and waiting.”

Ms Smith-Johns says the country is on high alert.

“Fiji is now on high alert we know that the cyclone is moving towards the Fiji group,” she said.

“We know that it’s going to be upgraded to a category four cyclone with winds gusting probably about 200 kilometres per hour, so we’re very much just waiting for the arrival.”

Fiji braces for strengthening Cyclone Evan

ABC NEWS

Evacuations have begun in Fiji ahead of the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Evan which has caused widespread damage in Samoa.

The cyclone expected to hit Fiji on Sunday is forecast to intensify into a category four or five storm as it approaches.

A state of disaster has been declared in Samoa after the storm left a trail of destruction and claimed at least two lives, with unconfirmed reports of many others missing.

Addressing the nation ahead of the storm, Fiji’s interim leader Commodore Frank Bainimarama said the cyclone would affect the entire country.

“It has winds up to 180 kilometres per hour which may intensify and, if the weather forecasters are correct, it will affect Fiji in a very damaging way bringing about destructive winds and flooding,” he said.

“Fellow Fijians I cannot stress how serious this is, every Fijian will be affected.”

Mr Bainimarama urged people to remain calm, look after the elderly and disabled, cancel social events, secure their properties and avoid travel and alcohol until the threat is over.

The country’s permanent secretary for information, Sharon Smith-Johns, says many people have fled to higher ground.

“There are people that have already taken precautions, that they know that they live in flood-prone areas and they’re moving to higher ground or moving in with relatives.

“There is quite a lot of movement around Suva especially today and around and in the rural areas.

“All we can do is be prepared here – lucky we’ve had a weeks notice of this all the agencies have been deployed, emergency services on standby, evacuation centres are open, rations have gone out now it’s just a matter of continuing to clean up our own backyards and putting cyclone shutters up and waiting.”

Ms Smith-Johns says the country is on high alert.

“Fiji is now on high alert we know that the cyclone is moving towards the Fiji group,” she said.

“We know that it’s going to be upgraded to a category four cyclone with winds gusting probably about 200 kilometres per hour, so we’re very much just waiting for the arrival.”

‘State of disaster’

The Samoan Government has declared a state of disaster after Evan made landfall on Thursday, causing widespread damage, cutting power, causing flooding and ripping trees out of the ground.

Locals say it is the worst storm to hit the region in recent years.

Muli Pola from Samoa’s Meteorology Division says the storm warning remains in effect with concerns it may turn back toward and make landfall on the islands.

Greg Grimsich, from the United Nations, says with damage much worse than expected international aid groups are ready to help if required.

“There’s a number of power lines down, roads damaged, we’re having a lot of difficulty communicating by mobile phones because the lines are actually quite jammed at the moment,” he said.

“We had a large number of people displaced from their homes near the coast and near the river, there were still up to 2000 people in evacuation centres and there was a need for food and water that they’re running low on.”

Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs travel advice said the cyclone had damaged Faleolo International Airport and the Australian High Commission in Apia would be closed until further notice due to storm damage.”

Many places in Samoa have only just rebuilt after being devastated by a tsunami in 2009.

Gallery: In Pictures: Cyclone Evan hits Samoa

15 Dec 2012:

Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Evan Situation Report No. 2 (as of 15 Dec 2012)

Report

from UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

Published on 15 Dec 2012
preview
Download PDF (131.11 KB)English version

Highlights

  • The Ministry of Police in Samoa has confirmed that there have been four casualties and eight people remain missing.
  • The main water treatment plant in Samoa has suffered major damages and access to water is yet to be restored.
  • The island of Upolo in Samoa remains without electricity and reports suggest it may take months to reconnect the entire island.
  • Tropical Cyclone Evan (TC Evan) is forecast to pass Wallis and Futuna as a Category 4 tropical cyclone tonight.
  • A strong wind warning remains in force for islands in northern Tonga.
  • TC Evan is expected to pass northern and western Fiji as a Category 3 tropical cyclone on Monday.
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs:

To learn more about OCHA’s activities, please visit http://unocha.org/.

Flash Flood in Fiji – 7 dead, 3 missing, 11,000+ displaced, Epidemic Fear – Update dated 03 April, 2012 at 02:59 UTC

Fijian authorities have warned of possible outbreaks of communicable diseases at evacuation centres filled with people fleeing flooded towns.

Meanwhile the New Zealand Government has made $500,000 available to Fijian authorities as a tropical cyclone threatens to further batter the small island nation. Severe weather pounded Fiji at the weekend, causing flash floods that have left seven people dead and three missing, forced thousands to evacuate their homes and cut off power and water.

A state of natural disaster has been declared for most of Fiji’s Western Division. Rainfall today has slowed and rivers have receded, however the country remains vigilant as a cyclone passes to the west of Fiji.

The Fiji Meteorological Service forecast Tropical Cyclone Daphne would pass at least 500km to the southwest of Nadi, bringing damaging gale force winds to the south-western half of the country and further flooding of low-lying areas.

However the agency has this morning lifted a strong wind warning and a severe flood warning which had been in place for all major rivers and stream. The weather is forecast to clear up by Thursday.

More than 11,000 people in the western division are at 117 evacuation centres in the Western Division. Divisional health inspector Dip Chand told the Fiji Times medical teams have been deployed to the evacuation centres, amid fears of possible outbreaks.

He said strategies had been put in place to prevent or contain diseases. “There should be no grog drinking, smoking or merrymaking allowed at these centres,” he told the Fiji Times.
“People have to respect that there are elderly, women and children at these centres and there needs to be policies in place to address this.”

Nadi’s main road has been closed and is under police guard, the Times reports, and the smell of decomposing food and silt is in the air.

Foreign Minister Murray McCully announced this morning $500,000 will be immediately made available to agencies assisting flood victims in Fiji.

“In addition to the reported deaths thousands have been forced from their homes and into evacuation centres,” Mr McCully said.

“The situation is severe as Fiji is still recovering from January’s floods and many response agencies will not have fully replenished their supplies. ”

New Zealand’s funding will be provided to the Fiji Red Cross, and other non-government agencies well positioned to respond. New Zealand always stands ready to help the people of Fiji when disaster strikes.

“We will continue to monitor the situation closely and will consider further support based on the needs of relief agencies who are working with flood-affected communities,” Mr McCully says.

New Zealand provided $350,000 to the Fiji Red Cross to support the response to severe floods in January and a further $1.5 million to the Fiji Natural Disaster Management Office and to refurbish evacuation centres.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said 460 New Zealanders were registered as being in Fiji, 118 of them in Nadi. New Zealanders have been advised against all tourist and non-essential travel to parts of the Western Division of Viti Levu, including Nadi and the Coral Coast.

Air New Zealand yesterday cancelled a scheduled A320 flight to Nadi but sent in its place a larger, empty aircraft so it could bring back more stranded passengers.

The Fijian Government has lifted its temporary embargo on airlines carrying passengers on flights into Fiji and Air New Zealand said its next scheduled flight from Auckland to Nadi would go ahead as planned this morning.

“Air New Zealand will continue to monitor weather conditions in Fiji and passengers who are in the Nadi area should check regularly with their hotel for updates,” a spokeswoman said.

Meanwhile, the Salvation Army has launched an appeal to support the flood-ravaged nation. It is requesting financial assistance only – not food or clothing, as it is difficult to get such donations through to Fiji. Auckland-based Radio Apna 990AM has also launched a radio-thon to raise money for those affected. The radio-thon will run until 12am Thursday. – RSOE

A ShelterBox Response Team is also en route from the UK to assess need.

8,000 in evacuation centres from ongoing floods in Fiji. ShelterBox Responds

 
 
 

 

E-NEWS

Tuesday 03 April 2012

ShelterBox responds to flood-struck Fiji

ShelterBox responds to flood-struck Fiji Photograph by NASA/GSFC, Rapid Response. Satellite image shows Cyclone Daphne that recently threatened Fiji but luckily passed the island. Relief efforts can now begin.  

A ShelterBox Response Team (SRT) is flying to Fiji to assess the need for emergency shelter, following heavy rains over the past few months that have caused riverbanks to burst flooding villages.

Thousands of homes have been damaged on the largest island of Viti Levu forcing around 8,000 people into evacuation centres. Water and electricity have been cut off in some areas.

The floods are ‘three to four times worse’ than the last devastating floods in 2009, according to the South Pacific nation’s Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, who has called for a solution to the country’s flooding problems.

‘We are consulting with several key players, including Rotary in Suva, DISMAC (Fijian disaster management agency), Red Cross and the New Zealand Government to coordinate an appropriate and rapid response,’ said ShelterBox International Director Lasse Petersen.

SRT members Lyndon Tamblyn (NZ) and Sally Fletcher (NZ) will arrive in Fiji to begin the needs assessment on 5 April.

‘This will be my second deployment to Fiji as I was part of the Response Team that responded to Hurricane Tomas that hit in 2009,’ said Lyndon. ‘The Rotarians and government officials who assisted us then are helping us now and will provide valuable logistical support with transport and language.’

YELLOW ALERT FOR CAT 1 TROPICAL CYCLONE Vanuatu & Fiji – Updated

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Apr, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DAPHNE (18P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vanuatu
probability for TS is 70% currently
Fiji
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Network 10’s Australian Journalist & Meteorologist @Magdalena_Roze:

Tropical Cyclone #Daphne now cat 1 approx 500km SW of Fiji. Predicted to move SE, intensifying into cat 2 early Tues

Tropical cyclone Daphne expected to hit Fiji from about 6pm on Monday and will pass 500km south-west of the country, bringing more rain and strong winds – Radio New Zealand

“Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” as it heads ever dangerously closer to Western Fiji Island.  Already, the government officials in Capital Suva, has ordered massive evacuations of more than 7,000 of its citizens in Nadi, which is the Westernmost edge of the Island territory as torrential rains already caused flooding and could pose more threat to life and property.


 Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” was located to be at 19.2S-171.2E, or 663.5 km East-southeast of Nadi, Fiji at 2332Z (0732AM-PHL), with sustained wind reaching 65 km/hr (35 kt) and gusting near 93 km/hr (50 kt), with central pressure of 998 hPa, and currently traversing over warm waters, which should catapult it over a favourable “Ocean Heat Content” (OHC), but the “Shearing environment” could be an issue and considering that the system is tracking more South-southeastwards to generally Southward motion for the last 6 hrs.  We’ll see hot it deteriorates the system gradually as it negotiates on cooler waters in the days to come.

Fig. 2.0 “Powerful Tropical Cyclone 18P/DAPHNE barreling through populated South Pacific Islands of Vanuatu and Fiji as shown in this Vis Sat Imagery.  Image Credit: FNMOC/Navy.”

The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration (NOAA) has issued warnings in consideration that the storm system could generate “Treacherous sea conditions,” as the cyclonic weather gets closer to Fiji Island later today.  Meteorologists in the agency also warned the coastal communities to be on alert for high surf conditions in the approach of the tempest and let it past.

Fig. 3.0 “An MLSP analysis of Tropical Cyclone 18P/DAPHNE as it dips South to South-southeastwards, could skirt through New Zealand’s North Island come Wednesday, 04 March 2012.  Image Credit: CIRA.”

The government in Suva also ordered its citizens to stay clear along the Western and Southern side of the Island territory and move to higher ground as rising sea levels whipped by Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” could endanger the coastal infrastructure.  “Storm Surges” are generated by these tropical systems and quite often if not mostly, this phenomena cause most deaths in a storm.http://www.theboplive.net

Flash Floods in Fiji

 

 

Widespread flooding to parts of Fiji from Thursday night into Friday. The hardest hit areas were on the western side of the main island Viti Levu where the town of Nandi has been cut off from other parts of the island. Nandi, home to Fiji’s International Airport, received over 11 inches of rain since Thursday, with rain still falling across the area on Friday night. The slow movement of the tropical low will result in a continuing threat for locally heavy rainfall through the weekend and possibly into early next week. The heavy rainfall caused most flights to and from the International Airport to be canceled on Friday, while hundreds of people were forced from their homes and many stranded on rooftops. Other local communities have been cut off by raging flood waters as rivers overflowed their banks, forcing most schools to close on Friday. No deaths have been reported thus far; however, life-threatening flooding will be possible through the weekend. – RSOE

Youtube user ashishchief uploaded this video:

watch?v=KRM4da5GU0k