Atlantic/ US/ Canada: Post-tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL 04L: 291500Z nr 45.5N 47.1W, moving NE at about 38.2 knots(NHC) – Updated 291514 2200z (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL 04L

……CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC……NHC

CRISTOBAL STILL A STRONG POST-TROPICAL STORM ON EASTERN EDGE OF
THE GRAND BANKS – STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO ITS WEST.- CHC

Though Cristobal is no longer a hurricane, it still has hurricane-force winds, and will be a threat to marine interests off the Newfoundland coast today, and to Iceland on Sunday night – Dr. Jeff Masters

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

…CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…45.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 300 MI…480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH…70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB…28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 47.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44 MPH…70 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES…500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB…28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST…AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROW

 

Hurricane Track Information

WOCN31 CWHX 291851 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT CORRECTED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:51 PM ADT FRIDAY
29 AUGUST 2014.
———————————————————————
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND.

FOR POST-TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT BY THE C.H.C ON THIS STORM.

THIS BULLETIN CORRECTS THE TIME OF SECTION 1 HEADER WHICH WAS
9:00 AM AND SHOULD BE 3:00 PM.

CRISTOBAL STILL A STRONG POST-TROPICAL STORM ON EASTERN EDGE OF
THE GRAND BANKS – STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO ITS WEST.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3.00 PM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 46.7 NORTH 46.0 WEST.

ABOUT 520 KILOMETRES EAST OF ST JOHN’S NL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST NEAR 85 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

CRISTOBAL HAS FOR THE MOST PART COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION TO
POST-TROPICAL STATUS. PINPOINTING THE EXACT POINT/TIME THESE TYPES
OF STORMS BECOME ‘POST-TROPICAL’ IS NOT EASILY DEFINED AND THE
UNCERTAINTY IS ON THE ORDER OF 3 HOURS. NONETHELESS, HIGH WINDS
REMAIN AROUND THE STORM AND ARE IMPACTING THE HIBERNIA AREA AT THE
TIME OF THIS BULLETIN. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINE OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS PART OF THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION
THAT CRISTOBAL HAS MERGED WITH.

A. WIND.

GUSTS REACHED 90 KM/H ALONG EXPOSED PARTS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA AND
NEAR 70 KM/H INLAND. THESE WINDS WERE NOT TECHNICALLY PART OF THE
HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL STORM.

B. RAINFALL.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AVALON ARE NOT PART OF THE REMNANTS
OF CRISTOBAL, BUT INSTEAD ARE FROM THE LARGER LOW THAT THE STORM
MERGED WITH.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

MODERATE TO ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME REMNANT SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL AND FROM THE
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS EXPERIENCED EARLIER.

SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND:

WITH THE PASSAGE OF CRISTOBAL WELL OFFSHORE ITS RAPID FORWARD SPEED
OF TRAVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS MAY HAVE TRIGGERED RAPID
TIDE-LIKE CHANGES IN HARBOUR WATER LEVELS OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THIS WILL BE THROUGHOUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND AREAS MOST PRONE TO THIS EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN
AVALON TO THE BONAVISTA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORMS THAT HAVE RACED
ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS (MOVING OVER 100 KM/H) IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
WATER LEVELS IN HARBOURS TO RISE AND FALL 2 OR 3 TIMES OVER THE SPAN
OF AN HOUR AND FLUCTUATE BY AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 METRES (6 TO 10 FEET).
THIS IS AN ADVISORY THAT THIS MAY – REPEAT MAY – OCCUR AND INTERESTS
ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ON THE WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
PREDICTING THE ACTUAL WATER LEVEL CHANGES FOR VARIOUS HARBOURS IS
VERY DIFFICULT HOWEVER.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF VERY HIGH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GRAND BANKS ON THE BACKSIDE (NORTHWEST) OF CRISTOBAL.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING. WAVES UP TO 8 OR 9 METRES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GRAND
BANKS.

REPEAT – THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FROM C.H.C. ON THIS STORM.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY/MACKINNON

 

 

_______________________________________________

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

 

Other

Dr. Jeff Masters� Blog (wunderground.com)

The Tropics Go Quiet World-Wide

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on August 29, 2014

Hurricane Cristobal ceased to be at 11 am EDT on Friday, as the storm completed its transition to a powerful extratropical storm. Though Cristobal is no longer a hurricane, it still has hurricane-force winds, and will be a threat to marine interests off the Newfoundland coast today, and to Iceland on Sunday night.

With Cristobal’s transition to an extratropical storm and the demise of the Eastern Pacific’s Tropical Storm Marie earlier today, there are now no named tropical cyclones anywhere in the world–an unusual situation for what is traditionally one of the busiest days of the Northern Hemisphere’s tropical cyclone season. This quiet period appears likely to extend though the weekend, as I don’t expect any new named storms to form anywhere in the world through Sunday.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image showing Hurricane Cristobal’s off the coast of Massachusetts at approximately 11 am EDT on August 28, 2014. At the time, Cristobal had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

MARITIME

Graphicast Atlantic

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY /1449

WTNT24 KNHC 291449
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…….100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT…….200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 48.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N 41.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 0NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT…100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT…200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N 35.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT…200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N 27.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT…150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z…MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N 47.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1623

FZNT01 KWBC 291623
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

PAN PAN

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 29
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 30
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 31

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL NEAR 45.5N 47.1W 980 MB AT 1500
UTC AUG 29 MOVING NE OR 055 DEG AT 38 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. WITHIN 100 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 50 TO
65 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. ALSO WITHIN 100 NM NE AND SW
QUADRANTS…140 NM SE QUADRANT…AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 35
TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT…HIGHEST IN SW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 200 NM NE…270 NM SE…220 NM SW AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 26 FT…HIGHEST IN SW QUADRANT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CRISTOBAL NEAR 51.5N 35.0W 976
MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM SE…120 NM SW AND 120 NM
NW QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 TO 33 FT. ALSO WITHIN
200 NM N AND 250 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO
25 FT…HIGHEST IN SW QUADRANT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CRISTOBAL MERGED WITH A NEW LOW
E OF AREA 63N27W DESCRIBED BELOW.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 60N41W 979 MB NEARLY STATIONARY NEXT 6 HOURS THEN WILL
DRIFT E. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 300 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS…WITHIN
90 NM OF E GREENLAND COAST AND WITHIN 240 NM SW OF A TROUGH FROM
61N47W TO 64N52W TO 67N53W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 23
FT…HIGHEST NEAR 58N44W. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM 54N35W TO
53N47W TO 54N55W TO 62N60W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N38W 992 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS AND 60 NM OF THE E GREENLAND COAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 57N E OF
43W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW FORMING E OF AREA
NEAR 63N27W 970 MB. N OF 60N E OF 37W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 51N E OF 40W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N64W 994 MB. OVER WATERS WITHIN 300 NM N
AND S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 62N53W 985 MB. WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM
NE QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ALSO WITHIN 240
NM S AND SW QUADRANTS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
A LINE FROM 50N40W TO 42N70W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT WHERE NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL CRISTOBAL ABOVE FROM 34N
TO 50N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W AND FROM 35N TO 44N BETWEEN 54W AND
66W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT…EXCEPT S OF 43N W OF 50W
12 TO 30 FT…HIGHEST NEAR 39N54W IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT WHERE NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL
CRISTOBAL ABOVE…FROM 43N TO 55N E OF 50W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NEW LOW E OF AREA 63N27W.

.LOW 44N54W 996 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. WITHIN 420 NM NW QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N44W 1010 MB. FROM 37N TO 43N BETWEEN
45W AND 58W AREA OF N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N35W 1016 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.

.LOW 37N39W 1010 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 57N TO 63N W OF 59W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 54N TO 59N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N67W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N52W 1027 MB.

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI AUG 29.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT AUG 30.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN AUG 31.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF 15N78W
AND WITHIN 180 NM OF 15N80W ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE AND
UPPER LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 18N81W TO 13N72W
E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N86W TO 12N74W
E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO 36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 88W
AND 91W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
METAREA IV

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One thought on “Atlantic/ US/ Canada: Post-tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL 04L: 291500Z nr 45.5N 47.1W, moving NE at about 38.2 knots(NHC) – Updated 291514 2200z (UTC)

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