Iceland: Hekla volcano could be ready for another eruption, measurements suggest – Published 30 Mar 2017 1730z (GMT/UTC)

Mount Hekla Volcano

“More pressure is in the magma chambers underneath the mountain than before the last two eruptions in 1991 and 2000” says geophysicist Pall Einarsson at the University of Iceland

 

Mount Hekla

“Most measurements that we have today indicate that Hekla is ready for an eruption, but we do not know what factor will set the eruption off,” says geophysicist Pall Einarsson at the University of Iceland. More pressure is in the magma chambers underneath the mountain than before the last two eruptions in 1991 and 2000. It’s however impossible to say whether a Hekla eruption is to be expected soon or not, as eruptions come without much warning and with little correlation to other volcanic or earthquake activities in South Iceland. Today marks the 70th anniversary of the greatest Hekla eruption known to man, which lasted 13 months. There have been five eruptions in Mount Hekla since 1970.

RSOE March 30 2017 12:35 PM (UTC).

“1991

On January 17th Helka violently erupted with a cloud of ash and tephra that reached an altitude of 39,360 ft. (12 km). During this eruption a summit fissure and a main crater were created and from these lava flows extended down the southeastern and northwestern slopes. Lava fountains in these craters reached a height of 984 ft. (300m). This eruption continued until March 11th when activity once again died down”. – volcano.oregonstate.edu

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

“2000

A lava field on Hekla in July 2000

The most recent eruption was relatively short, it started at 18:18 on 26 February 2000 and lasted until 8 March. It was a VEI3 eruption producing a lava volume of 0.189 km3 DRE[38] / 0.29 km3[12] and 107 m3 of tephra.[12] The eruption went through four phases:

  1. initial explosive stage
  2. fire fountains
  3. bursts of Strombolian eruption
  4. effusion of lava[38]

Eruption activity was at a maximum in the first hour and by the first night the fissure on Hekla had opened to a length of 6–7 km. The steam column rose to a height of almost 15 km and ash was transported to Grímsey.[39] During this eruption, a NASA DC-8 aeroplane accidentally flew through the plume with all instruments switched on, resulting in unprecedented measurement of a young volcanic plume.[40]

Up until this eruption, it had always been assumed that Hekla was incapable of producing the most dangerous of volcanic phenomena, the pyroclastic flow. In January 2003, however, a team from the Norvol Institute in Reykjavík, under the leadership of Dr. Ármann Höskuldsson, reported that they found traces of a pyroclastic flow, roughly 5 km long, stretching down the side of the mountain. This will call for a reappraisal of volcanic eruptions of the basic rock type, which up to now were generally thought not to produce large pyroclastic flows. It will also require that the public and curious spectators who always rush to the scene at the start of a new outbreak, be kept much further away from the volcanic activity than was thought necessary during previous outbreaks.

Future eruptions

Steam at the summit of Hekla

In January 2010 there were reports of patches near to the summit not covered with snow[41] and that the lava chamber pressure had reached levels similar to those before Hekla last erupted[42] however no eruption subsequently occurred.

International media reported activity that is interpreted as being close to another eruption in July 2011[43] while Icelandic news sources claimed otherwise.[44] The Icelandic state news web site, ruv.is, regularly warns travellers of imminent eruptions.[45][46][47]

In March 2013 a Civil Protection State of Uncertainty was issued due to an unusual cluster of seven micro-earthquakes at a depth of approximately 11 km, to the NE of the volcano, although there were no signs of ground deformation.[48] People were warned against travelling to the mountain, and the air traffic surveillance level was increased to yellow temporarily.[49][50] In April the volcano underwent unusual rapid inflation, particularly in the northern region of the volcano, that some commentators regarded as making an imminent eruption more likely.[51][52]”

For  more see:

Icelandic Meteorological Office

Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

volcano.oregonstate.edu

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Atlantic/ US/ Canada: Post-tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL 04L: 291500Z nr 45.5N 47.1W, moving NE at about 38.2 knots(NHC) – Updated 291514 2200z (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL 04L

……CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC……NHC

CRISTOBAL STILL A STRONG POST-TROPICAL STORM ON EASTERN EDGE OF
THE GRAND BANKS – STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO ITS WEST.- CHC

Though Cristobal is no longer a hurricane, it still has hurricane-force winds, and will be a threat to marine interests off the Newfoundland coast today, and to Iceland on Sunday night – Dr. Jeff Masters

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

…CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…45.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 300 MI…480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH…70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB…28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 47.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44 MPH…70 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES…500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB…28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST…AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROW

 

Hurricane Track Information

WOCN31 CWHX 291851 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT CORRECTED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:51 PM ADT FRIDAY
29 AUGUST 2014.
———————————————————————
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND.

FOR POST-TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT BY THE C.H.C ON THIS STORM.

THIS BULLETIN CORRECTS THE TIME OF SECTION 1 HEADER WHICH WAS
9:00 AM AND SHOULD BE 3:00 PM.

CRISTOBAL STILL A STRONG POST-TROPICAL STORM ON EASTERN EDGE OF
THE GRAND BANKS – STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO ITS WEST.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3.00 PM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 46.7 NORTH 46.0 WEST.

ABOUT 520 KILOMETRES EAST OF ST JOHN’S NL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST NEAR 85 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

CRISTOBAL HAS FOR THE MOST PART COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION TO
POST-TROPICAL STATUS. PINPOINTING THE EXACT POINT/TIME THESE TYPES
OF STORMS BECOME ‘POST-TROPICAL’ IS NOT EASILY DEFINED AND THE
UNCERTAINTY IS ON THE ORDER OF 3 HOURS. NONETHELESS, HIGH WINDS
REMAIN AROUND THE STORM AND ARE IMPACTING THE HIBERNIA AREA AT THE
TIME OF THIS BULLETIN. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINE OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS PART OF THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION
THAT CRISTOBAL HAS MERGED WITH.

A. WIND.

GUSTS REACHED 90 KM/H ALONG EXPOSED PARTS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA AND
NEAR 70 KM/H INLAND. THESE WINDS WERE NOT TECHNICALLY PART OF THE
HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL STORM.

B. RAINFALL.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AVALON ARE NOT PART OF THE REMNANTS
OF CRISTOBAL, BUT INSTEAD ARE FROM THE LARGER LOW THAT THE STORM
MERGED WITH.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

MODERATE TO ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME REMNANT SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL AND FROM THE
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS EXPERIENCED EARLIER.

SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND:

WITH THE PASSAGE OF CRISTOBAL WELL OFFSHORE ITS RAPID FORWARD SPEED
OF TRAVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS MAY HAVE TRIGGERED RAPID
TIDE-LIKE CHANGES IN HARBOUR WATER LEVELS OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THIS WILL BE THROUGHOUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND AREAS MOST PRONE TO THIS EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN
AVALON TO THE BONAVISTA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORMS THAT HAVE RACED
ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS (MOVING OVER 100 KM/H) IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
WATER LEVELS IN HARBOURS TO RISE AND FALL 2 OR 3 TIMES OVER THE SPAN
OF AN HOUR AND FLUCTUATE BY AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 METRES (6 TO 10 FEET).
THIS IS AN ADVISORY THAT THIS MAY – REPEAT MAY – OCCUR AND INTERESTS
ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ON THE WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
PREDICTING THE ACTUAL WATER LEVEL CHANGES FOR VARIOUS HARBOURS IS
VERY DIFFICULT HOWEVER.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF VERY HIGH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GRAND BANKS ON THE BACKSIDE (NORTHWEST) OF CRISTOBAL.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING. WAVES UP TO 8 OR 9 METRES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GRAND
BANKS.

REPEAT – THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FROM C.H.C. ON THIS STORM.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY/MACKINNON

 

 

_______________________________________________

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

 

Other

Dr. Jeff Masters� Blog (wunderground.com)

The Tropics Go Quiet World-Wide

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on August 29, 2014

Hurricane Cristobal ceased to be at 11 am EDT on Friday, as the storm completed its transition to a powerful extratropical storm. Though Cristobal is no longer a hurricane, it still has hurricane-force winds, and will be a threat to marine interests off the Newfoundland coast today, and to Iceland on Sunday night.

With Cristobal’s transition to an extratropical storm and the demise of the Eastern Pacific’s Tropical Storm Marie earlier today, there are now no named tropical cyclones anywhere in the world–an unusual situation for what is traditionally one of the busiest days of the Northern Hemisphere’s tropical cyclone season. This quiet period appears likely to extend though the weekend, as I don’t expect any new named storms to form anywhere in the world through Sunday.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image showing Hurricane Cristobal’s off the coast of Massachusetts at approximately 11 am EDT on August 28, 2014. At the time, Cristobal had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

MARITIME

Graphicast Atlantic

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY /1449

WTNT24 KNHC 291449
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…….100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT…….200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 47.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 48.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N 41.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 0NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT…100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT…200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N 35.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT…200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N 27.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT…150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z…MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N 47.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1623

FZNT01 KWBC 291623
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

PAN PAN

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC AUG 29
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 30
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC AUG 31

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL NEAR 45.5N 47.1W 980 MB AT 1500
UTC AUG 29 MOVING NE OR 055 DEG AT 38 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. WITHIN 100 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 50 TO
65 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. ALSO WITHIN 100 NM NE AND SW
QUADRANTS…140 NM SE QUADRANT…AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 35
TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT…HIGHEST IN SW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 200 NM NE…270 NM SE…220 NM SW AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 26 FT…HIGHEST IN SW QUADRANT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CRISTOBAL NEAR 51.5N 35.0W 976
MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM SE…120 NM SW AND 120 NM
NW QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 TO 33 FT. ALSO WITHIN
200 NM N AND 250 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO
25 FT…HIGHEST IN SW QUADRANT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CRISTOBAL MERGED WITH A NEW LOW
E OF AREA 63N27W DESCRIBED BELOW.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 60N41W 979 MB NEARLY STATIONARY NEXT 6 HOURS THEN WILL
DRIFT E. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 300 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS…WITHIN
90 NM OF E GREENLAND COAST AND WITHIN 240 NM SW OF A TROUGH FROM
61N47W TO 64N52W TO 67N53W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 23
FT…HIGHEST NEAR 58N44W. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM 54N35W TO
53N47W TO 54N55W TO 62N60W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N38W 992 MB. WITHIN 180 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS AND 60 NM OF THE E GREENLAND COAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 57N E OF
43W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW FORMING E OF AREA
NEAR 63N27W 970 MB. N OF 60N E OF 37W AREA OF N TO NW WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 51N E OF 40W WINDS TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N64W 994 MB. OVER WATERS WITHIN 300 NM N
AND S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 62N53W 985 MB. WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM
NE QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ALSO WITHIN 240
NM S AND SW QUADRANTS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
A LINE FROM 50N40W TO 42N70W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT WHERE NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL CRISTOBAL ABOVE FROM 34N
TO 50N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W AND FROM 35N TO 44N BETWEEN 54W AND
66W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT…EXCEPT S OF 43N W OF 50W
12 TO 30 FT…HIGHEST NEAR 39N54W IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT WHERE NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL
CRISTOBAL ABOVE…FROM 43N TO 55N E OF 50W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NEW LOW E OF AREA 63N27W.

.LOW 44N54W 996 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. WITHIN 420 NM NW QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 41N44W 1010 MB. FROM 37N TO 43N BETWEEN
45W AND 58W AREA OF N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N35W 1016 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.

.LOW 37N39W 1010 MB MOVING NE 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 57N TO 63N W OF 59W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 54N TO 59N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N67W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N52W 1027 MB.

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI AUG 29.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT AUG 30.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN AUG 31.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF 15N78W
AND WITHIN 180 NM OF 15N80W ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE AND
UPPER LOW.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 18N81W TO 13N72W
E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N86W TO 12N74W
E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO 36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 88W
AND 91W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

LESLIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND – Updated 11 Sept 2012 1526Z

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Leslie 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

(Image: weatheroffice.gc.ca)
Leslie Track Information
(Click image for animation/source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com)
Post-Tropical Cyclone LESLIE
Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

 

 

WTNT32 KNHC 111439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

…LESLIE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM NEWFOUNDLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…49.4N 53.6W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM NNW OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 45 MPH…72 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH…72 KH/HR…AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES…555 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB…28.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY.  THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL…RAINS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

En français :

WTNT32 KNHC 111439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN DE
CYCLONE POST-TROPICALE LESLIE CONSULTATIF NUMÉRO 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 SUIS AST TUE SEP 11 2012

…LESLIE DEVIENT UN CYCLONE POST-TROPICALE EN TANT QU’IL COMMENCE À S’EN ÉLOIGNER
DE TERRE-NEUVE…

RÉSUMÉ DE 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC… INFORMATION
———————————————–
EMPLACEMENT…49.4N 53.6W
ENVIRON 130 MI…210 KM NNO DE ST. JOHNS, TERRE-NEUVE
VENTS MAXIMUMS SOUTENUS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
MOUVEMENT ACTUEL…NNE OU 30 DEGRÉS À 45 MI/H…72 KM/H
PRESSION MINIMALE AU CENTRE…968 MO…28.59 POUCES

VEILLES ET AVERTISSEMENTS
——————–
CHANGEMENTS AVEC CET AVIS…

AUCUN.

RÉSUMÉ DES VEILLES ET DES AVERTISSEMENTS EN VIGUEUR…

UNE VEILLE D’OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR…
* TERRE-NEUVE DE PIERRES COVE À CHARLOTTETOWN

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR…
* TERRE-NEUVE DU PORT INDIEN DE TRITON

POUR TEMPÊTE D’INFORMATIONS SPÉCIFIQUE À VOTRE RÉGION…VEUILLEZ SURVEILLER
PRODUITS ÉMIS PAR LE CENTRE CANADIEN DE L’OURAGAN.

DISCUSSION ET PERSPECTIVES DE 48 HEURES
——————————
1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…LE CYCLONE CENTRE DE POST-TROPICALE
LESLIE ÉTAIT SITUÉE PRÈS DE NORTH LATITUDE 49,4…53,6 DE LONGITUDE OUEST.
LE CYCLONE POST-TROPICALE SE DÉPLACE VERS AU NORD-EST À 45
MPH…72 KH/H…ET UN TOUR AU NORD-EST ET À L’ENE EST
PRÉVUE DURANT LE JOUR SUIVANT OU.

LES VENTS MAXIMUMS SOUTENUS SONT PRÈS DE 70 MI/H…110 KM/H….AVEC PLUS
RAFALES. CE SYSTÈME DEVRAIT DEMEURER UNE FORTE POST-TROPICALE
CYCLONE POUR LE LENDEMAIN OU DEUX.

LES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE S’ÉTENDENT VERS L’EXTÉRIEUR JUSQU’À 345 MILLES…555 KM
PARTIR DU CENTRE.

MINIMUM ESTIMÉ LA PRESSION CENTRALE EST DE 968 MO…28.59 POUCES.

RISQUES TOUCHANT TERRE
———————-
VENT…VENTS DE FORCE TEMPÊTE-TROPICAL SERONT POURSUIVRA AU COURS DE L’EST
NEWFOUNDLAND À TRAVERS CET APRÈS-MIDI MAIS COMMENCERA PROGRESSIVEMENT À
S’AFFAISSER.

SURF…HOULE GÉNÉRÉE PAR LESLIE CONTINUERA À AFFECTER L’ATLANTIQUE
CANADA AUJOURD’HUI. CES HOULES POURRAIENT CAUSER Le MORTELLES SURF ET
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. VEUILLEZ CONSULTER LES PRODUITS DE VOTRE SECTION LOCALE
BUREAU MÉTÉOROLOGIQUE POUR PLUS D’INFORMATIONS.

PLUIE…PLUIES DIMINUE PROGRESSIVEMENT AU COURS DE LA JOURNÉE.

AVIS AUX PROCHAINES
————-
C’EST LE DERNIER AVIS PUBLIC ÉMIS PAR LE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTRE SUR CE SYSTÈME. DES INFORMATIONS SUPPLÉMENTAIRES SUR CE SYSTÈME PEUVENT ÊTRE
TROUVÉ EN HAUTE MER PRÉVISIONS ÉMISES PAR LA MÉTÉO NATIONALE
SERVICE…SOUS L’EN-TÊTE DE AWIPS NFDHSFAT1 ET FZNT01 DE L’EN-TÊTE DE L’OMM KWBC.

$$
PRÉVISIONNISTE AVILA

WOCN31 CWHX 111145
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 9:15 AM ADT Tuesday
11 September 2012.
———————————————————————
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Labrador
      Newfoundland
      Nova Scotia.

      For post-tropical storm Leslie.

      The next intermediate statement will be issued at 12:00 PM ADT.
      Followed by the next full statement issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

      Leslie made landfall near Fortune on the Burin Peninsula and
      Still packing a Wallop.

———————————————————————
Tropical cyclone information statement ended for:
Prince Edward Island.

———————————————————————
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 AM ADT.

Location: near 47.6 north 54.8 west.

About 60 kilometres north of Fortune, nl.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/hour.

Present movement: north-northeast near 65 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 969 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect for parts
of southern and Eastern Newfoundland being directly affected by
post-tropical storm Leslie this morning.  Rainfall warnings are in
effect all of Newfoundland but the southeast.

The centre of Leslie made landfall on the Southern Burin Peninsula
near the town of Fortune at 8:30 AM NDT.  It should be kept in mind
that this is a large system with widespread impacts and the exact
landfall point isn’t that important.  Rain bands extend well
northward and to the west of Leslie and are currently giving very
heavy rainfall rates on the order of 25 millimetres per hour to parts
of the Burin Peninsula and points north.  Current observation show
amounts in excess of 60 millimetres over parts of Western
Newfoundland with significantly more expected for Central and Western
Newfoundland.  Southeast winds are strengthening rapidly ahead and
east of Leslie.  St. John’s international airport is currently
showing sustained storm force winds of 90 km/h gusting to near
hurricane force at 131 km/h; Long Pond had a gust to hurricane force
at 124 km/h; Cape Race recently reported a wind gust to 100 km/h;
Argentia has gusted to 120 km/h; Winterland and St. Lawrence on the
Burin Peninsula recently reported a wind gust to 83 and 95 km/h
respectively.  A private weather station at cape pine on the Southern
Avalon recently reported a hurricane force wind gust of 137 km/h.

Much-smaller hurricane Michael has just been downgraded to a tropical
storm.  It is well to the south of Leslie and is not expected to have
any impact on the region.  It has been bypassed by Leslie’s large
circulation and will dissipate as it passes east of the Grand Banks
over the next day or two.

A. Wind.

A 2:00 AM ADT report from an offshore buoy very near the centre of
Leslie reported sustained winds of 85 km/h and a wind gust of
115 km/h, and at 7 AM ADT the smart bay buoy in Placentia Bay showed
78 km/h gusting to 100.  This combined with the many high winds at
shore stations already mentioned support sustained marginal hurricane
windspeeds east of the storm centre with higher gusts.

Leslie has a huge wind circulation with strong and gusty
northwesterly winds affecting most of the Maritimes today.
The strongest winds from Leslie are confined to Eastern Newfoundland
in areas 100 to 300 kilometres to the right of the track, where
southerly winds of 80 gusting to 120+ km/h are occurring.
Northwesterly winds behind Leslie are not expected to be quite as
strong at this time but gusts to 90 or 100 km/h are possible for
parts of western and Northern Newfoundland.  In Nova Scotia the
strongest winds behind the storm will be over Cape Breton where gusts
to 80 km/h are expected this morning.

Wind impacts include the some tree damage amd minor damage to some
structuresn, especially over Eastern Newfoundland with wind gusts
over 120 km/h.  This will continue lead to downed utility lines and
some property damage.

B. Rainfall.

The slow-moving frontal system has already drenched parts of Nova
Scotia, pei and Western Newfoundland, with some areas already
receiving well in excess of 100 millimetres.  The highest amounts
currently reported for Newfoundland are in to 40 to 60 millimetres
range for Western Newfoundland, with more expected.  Computer models
and experience with these merging tropical systems in the past show
that event-total rainfall of 150 millimetres, with locally even
higher amounts possible before the rain pulls out of Newfoundland
during theday Tuesday.  The location of the heaviest rainfall will be
in the areas west of Leslie’s track and where its moisture interacts
strongest with the trough, which for now includes Central and Western
Newfoundland.

Rainfall impacts from this storm include the possibility of street
flooding, property erosion and road and bridge washouts.  Hazards for
motorists include reduced visibilities, hydroplaning, flooded
sections of road, and possible compromised roadbeds and bridges.

C. Surge/waves.

And increasing there has been some surge accompanying Leslie’s
arrival this morning but the coincident low tides along the south
coast have kept water levels fairly moderate.

Large long period waves are occurring over Southern Newfoundland and
near the east coast.  Waves of 4-7 metres are forecast for the
southwest coast of Newfoundland increasing to 8-12 metres for the
Placentia Bay area then diminishing to 5 to 8 metres east of the
Avalon Peninsula.  Wave in excess of 10 metres have already occurred
on Placentia Bay.  These wave should diminish by afternoon along the
south coast and Placentia Bay, but will persist until later in the
afternoon or into the evening for the east coast.

These heavy pounding waves will lead to elevated waters levels and
some coastal erosion and the possibility of localized flooding in
exposed or vulnerable areas especially from Fortune east to Cape
Race.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for Newfoundland marine
waters to the east of the track.  Storm and gale warnings are in
effect for adjacent waters in Newfoundland and eastern Maritimes
waters.  Details can be found in the latest marine forecasts issued
from the Atlantic storm prediction center and the Newfoundland and
Labrador weather office.

Coastal impacts include possible damage to docks and wave overwash in
prone areas around the Southern Avalon, Placentia Bay and the Burin
Peninsula.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

– forecast position, central pressure table.

– strength and predicted wind radii table.

– hurricane track information map.

– technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/MERCER/FOGARTY

En français :

WOCN41 CWHX 111145
Cyclone tropical information Déclaration mise à jour par le canadien
Centre de prévision d’ouragan d’Environnement Canada à 09:15 mardi
11 Septembre 2012.
———————————————————————
Cyclone tropical déclaration de renseignements pour :
Labrador
Newfoundland
La Nouvelle-Écosse.

Pour la tempête post-tropicale Leslie.

La prochaine déclaration intermédiaire sera délivrée à 12:00 ADT.
Suivie de la prochaine déclaration complète de 15:00 ADT.

Leslie a touché terre près de Fortune sur la péninsule de Burin et
Encore emballer un Wallop.

———————————————————————
Cyclone tropical information état terminé pour :
Île du Prince Édouard.

———————————————————————
== discussion ==
1. Résumé des informations de base à 9 h 00 AM ADT.

Lieu : près de 47,6 54,8 Nord-Ouest.

Environ 60 kilomètres au nord de Fortune, nl.

Maximale soutenue des vents : 120 km/heure.

Présenter le mouvement : direction près de 65 km/h.

Pression minimale au Centre : 969 MB.

2. Public météo sur les impacts et résumé des avertissements.

Avertissements de tempête tropicale et ouragan montres sont en vigueur pour les parties
du Sud et l’est de Terre-Neuve sont directement touchés par
tempête post-tropicale Leslie ce matin. Les avertissements de pluie sont en
effet tous de Terre-Neuve mais le sud-est.

Le centre de Leslie a touché terre dans le sud de la péninsule Burin
près de la ville de Fortune à 08:30 Hat. Il doit garder à l’esprit
qu’il s’agit d’un grand système avec impacts généralisées et l’exacte
point de folie n’est pas important. Bandes de pluie s’étend bien
vers le Nord et à l’ouest de Leslie et sont actuellement en donnant très
taux de fortes pluies sur l’ordre de 25 millimètres par heure pour pièces
de la péninsule de Burin et le Nord. Salon d’observation actuelle
montants excédant 60 millimètres sur les parties de l’ouest
Terre-Neuve avec significativement plus attendue pour centrale et ouest
Terre-Neuve. Vents du sud-est sont rapidement à venir renforcer et
nord-est de Leslie. Aéroport international de St. John’s est actuellement
tempête soutenue montrant la force des vents de 90 km/h avec des rafales à près de
force d’ouragan à 131 km/h ; Étang long avait une rafale de force d’ouragan
à 124 km/h ; Cape Race a récemment rapporté une rafale de vent à 100 km/h ;
Argentia a rafales de 120 km/h ; Winterland et Saint-Laurent sur la
La péninsule Burin a récemment rapporté une rafale de vent à 83 et 95 km/h
respectivement. Une station météo privée à pin Cap sur le sud
Avalon a récemment rapporté une rafale de vent de force ouragan de 137 km/h.

Très petit ouragan Michael a juste été déclassé pour un tropical
tempête. Il est bien au sud de Leslie et ne devrait pas avoir
aucun impact sur la région. Il a été contourné par Leslie grand
circulation et dissipera qu’il passe à l’est des grands bancs
au cours de la prochaine journée ou deux.

A. vent.

Un rapport ADT 02:00 par une bouée au large des côtes très près du centre de
Leslie a signalé des vents soutenus de 85 km/h et une rafale de vent de
115 km/h, et 7 HAA la bouée baie intelligente dans la baie de plaisance ont montré
78 km/h avec des rafales à 100. Ceci combiné avec les vents forts nombreux à
stations côtières déjà mentionné ouragan marginal soutenue de soutien
vent à l’est du centre de la tempête avec des rafales plus élevées.

Leslie a une circulation vent énorme avec fort et irrégulier
vents du Nord-Ouest qui touchent la plupart des Maritimes aujourd’hui.
Les plus forts vents de Leslie se limitent à l’est de Terre-Neuve
de 100 à 300 kilomètres à droite de la piste, les zones où
les vents du sud de 80 noeuds avec des rafales à 120++ km/h sont produisent.
Vents du Nord-Ouest derrière Leslie ne devraient pas être tout à fait aussi
forte à cette époque mais les rafales à 90 ou 100 km/h sont possibles pour les
certaines parties de l’Ouest et du Nord de Terre-Neuve. En Nouvelle-Écosse le
des vents plus forts derrière la tempête sera au Cap-Breton où rafales
à 80 km/h sont attendus ce matin.

Les effets de vent incluent les quelques arbres dommages amd dommages mineurs à certains
structuresn, tout particulièrement à l’est de Terre-Neuve avec des rafales de vent
plus de 120 km/h. Cela continuera de plomb de cables au sol et
certains dommages à la propriété.
B. pluie.

Le système frontal lent a déjà saturées de parties de Nova
Nouvelle-Écosse, l’île et ouest de Terre-Neuve, avec certains secteurs déjà
recevoir bien plus de 100 millimètres. Les montants plus élevés
actuellement déclarées pour Newfoundland sont de 40 à 60 millimètres
gamme pour l’ouest de Terre-Neuve, avec les plus attendus. Modèles informatiques
et de l’expérience avec les systèmes tropicaux dans le dernier spectacle de fusion
Cet événement-total précipitations de 150 millimètres, avec localement même
quantités plus élevées possibles avant que la pluie se retire de la Newfoundland
au cours de l’attrait mardi. L’emplacement des précipitations plus lourde sera
dans les zones à l’ouest de la piste de Leslie et où son humidité interagit
plus forte avec la fosse, qui comprend la centrale et ouest
Terre-Neuve.

Les impacts des précipitations de cette tempête incluent la possibilité de la rue
inondations, érosion de la propriété et lavages de routes et de ponts. Dangers pour
les automobilistes comprennent la visibilité réduite, aquaplanage, inondée
sections de la route, et possible compromis plates-formes des routes et des ponts.

C. surge et vagues.

Et augmentant il y a eu certaines ondes accompagnement Leslie
arrivée ce matin mais les marées coïncide le long du Sud
côte ont gardé des niveaux d’eau assez modéré.

Grosses vagues de longue périodes sont produisent au sud de Terre-Neuve et
près de la côte est. Des vagues de 4 à 7 m sont prévues pour la
côte sud-ouest de Terre-Neuve à 8-12 mètres pour les
Région de la baie Placentia puis diminuant de 5 à 8 mètres est de la
La péninsule d’Avalon. Onde supérieure à 10 mètres ont déjà eu lieu
sur la baie de plaisance. Ces ondes devrait diminuer en après-midi le long de la
côte sud et la baie de plaisance, mais persistent jusqu’au plus tard dans les
après-midi ou en soirée pour la côte est.

Ces lourds martèlement des vagues conduira à des niveaux élevés d’eaux et
certains l’érosion côtière et la possibilité d’inondations localisées dans
zones exposées ou vulnérables surtout de l’est de la Fortune à Cap
Course.

3. Marine météo sur les impacts et résumé des avertissements.

Avertissements de vents de force ouragan sont en vigueur pour la marine de la Newfoundland
eaux à l’est de la piste. Les avertissements de tempête et gale sont dans
effet des eaux adjacentes à Terre-Neuve et Maritimes de l’est
eaux. Plus de détails se trouvent dans les dernières prévisions marines délivrées
de l’Atlantique storm prediction center et la Terre-Neuve et
Bureau météorologique de Labrador.

Impacts côtiers comprennent les dommages possibles aux quais et submersion dans les vagues
régions sujettes à autour de l’Avalon du Sud, la baie de plaisance et le Burin
Péninsule.

Visitez le Bureau météorologique.Gc.ca/Hurricane (tout en minuscules) pour la
plus récents :

-prévision de position, tableau de pression centrale.

-Force et tableau de prévisions de vent rayons.

-Ouragan sur piste renseignements sur la carte.

-discussion technique.

Veuillez également consulter les prévisions publiques et marines et avertissements
émises par Environnement Canada pour votre région.

FIN/MERCER/FOGARTY

 

Newfoundland Power: STAY AWAY from trees and downed power lines. Power lines should be considered “live” and extremely dangerous. Do not try to move.

WWCN16 CWHX 111324
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:54 AM NDT TUESDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND...

WIND WARNING FOR:
      ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
      AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
      CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA PENINSULA
      TERRA NOVA
      BONAVISTA NORTH
      BAY OF EXPLOITS
      BURIN PENINSULA
      CONNAIGRE
      BURGEO - RAMEA.

      WIND GUSTS OF 120 TO 140 KM/HOUR ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
      PASSAGE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

      THIS IS A WARNING THAT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE OCCURRING
      IN THESE REGIONS.  MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR
      UPDATED STATEMENTS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
      ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
      AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
      CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA PENINSULA
      TERRA NOVA
      BONAVISTA NORTH
      BAY OF EXPLOITS
      BURIN PENINSULA
      CONNAIGRE
      BURGEO - RAMEA.

      TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

      A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
      63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
      HOURS.  BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
      LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
      ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
      AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
      CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA PENINSULA
      BURIN PENINSULA.

      POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HURRICANE CONDITIONS TODAY.

      A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT
      HURRICANE CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
      AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS ENDED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND...

RAINFALL WARNING ENDED FOR:
      TERRA NOVA
      GANDER AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA NORTH
      BAY OF EXPLOITS
      GREEN BAY - WHITE BAY
      GRAND FALLS-WINDSOR AND VICINITY
      BUCHANS AND THE INTERIOR
      CONNAIGRE
      BURGEO - RAMEA
      CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES AND VICINITY
      BAY ST. GEORGE
      CORNER BROOK AND VICINITY
      DEER LAKE - HUMBER VALLEY
      GROS MORNE
      PARSON'S POND - HAWKE'S BAY
      PORT SAUNDERS AND THE STRAITS
      NORTHERN PENINSULA EAST.

      RAIN HAS EASED OR ENDED.  SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ARE
      NOT EXPECTED.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 1100 AM NDT POST-TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND.  LESLIE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA THIS
AFTERNOON.  STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 120 TO 140 KM/H
EAST OF LESLIE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
BEHIND LESLIE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 100 KM/H WILL
DEVELOP.

AS WELL LARGE WAVES AND POUNDING SURF ARE EXPECTED ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST POSITION AND TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/..

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2012 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm LESLIE (AL12) currently located near 49.4 N 53.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Greenland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Iceland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 45 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Atlantique N: Tempête Alerte émise à 11 Sep, 2012 15:00 GMT (dernier avertissement)

Tempête tropicale LESLIE (AL12) actuellement situé près de 49,4 n 53,6 w est prévu pour frapper la terre à la likelihood(s) suivante le time (s) de plomb donné :
Country(s) alerte rouge ou province
Canada
probabilité de CAT 1 ou supérieur est actuellement de 35 %
probabilité de TS est 100 % actuellement

Country(s) alerte jaune ou province
Groenland
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 21 heures
Islande
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 45 heures
les îles Féroé
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Écosse
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Irlande
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Irlande du Nord
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Angleterre
probabilité de TS est de 70 % à environ 69 heures
l’île de Man
probabilité de TS est de 65 % à environ 69 heures
City(s) d’alerte jaune et Town(s)
Grand-Sault (48,6 N, 55,4 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % actuellement
De Saint-Jean (47,6 N, 52,7 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % actuellement
Tórshavn (62,0 N, 6,8 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Stornoway (58,3 N, 6,4 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Ullapool (58,0 N, 5.2 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Kirkwall (59,0 N, 3,0 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Mèche (58,5 N, 3.1 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Portree (57,5 N, 6.2 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Oban (56,3 N, 5,5 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Reykjavik (64,1 N, 21,9 W)
probabilité de TS est de 90 % à environ 45 heures
Lerwick (60.2 N, 1,2 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Aberdeen (57,2 N, 2.1 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Dundee (56,5 N, 3,0 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Glasgow (55,9 N, 4.3 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Ardara (54,8 N, 8,4 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Édimbourg (55,8 N, 3.1 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Stranraer (55,0 N, 5.0 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Belfast (54,6 N, 5,9 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Sligo (54,3 N, 8,4 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Belmullet (54.2 N, 10,0 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Workington (54,6 N, 3.4 W)
probabilité de TS est de 65 % à environ 69 heures
Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
probabilité de TS est de 65 % à environ 69 heures
Dublin (53.3 N, 6,3 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 60 % à environ 69 heures
Newcastle (55,0 N, 1,6 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 55 % à environ 69 heures
Holyhead (53.3 N, 4,5 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 55 % à environ 69 heures

Notez que
Red Alert (sévère) est CAT 1 ou supérieur à entre 31 % et 100 % de probabilité.
Alerte jaune (élevée) est CAT 1 ou supérieur à entre 10 % et 30 % de probabilité, ou TS à au-dessus de 50 % de probabilité.
CAT 1 signifie que les vents de force ouragan au moins 74 mph, 119 km/h ou 1 min 64 nœuds soutenue.
TS signifie vents de force tempête tropicale au moins 39 mi/h, 63 km/h ou 1 min 34 nœuds soutenue.

Pour information prévision graphique et de plus amples renseignements, veuillez visiter http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

In Bermuda….
Hotels get ready for Leslie
Elbow Beach sees tourists cancel holidays

By Elizabeth Roberts royalgazette.com

Hotels and businesses are busy getting ready for Tropical Storm Leslie, which could hit Bermuda as a Category 2 hurricane on Sunday.

Some venues have already experienced cancellations.

Sophie Dier, Director of Communications at the Elbow Beach Hotel on South Shore Road, Paget, said around a third of their bookings have been cancelled for this weekend due to the potential arrival of Tropical Storm Leslie.

“We were going to have 62 rooms occupied, but we have now had about 20 room cancellations, so to date we will now only have 42 rooms occupied,” she said.

“Our reservations team is expecting call volume to continue to increase regarding cancellations for this weekend as the storm moves closer.”

Ms Dier added: “Due to the potential threat to Bermuda, Elbow Beach is closely monitoring the path of Tropical Storm Leslie. The hotel has a comprehensive hurricane preparation plan and preliminary precautionary steps are already underway.

“The hotel’s risk management team is liaising with local authorities and continues with preparations for the storm’s arrival to ensure that all possible safety measures are in place.

“All South Shore beaches, including Elbow Beach, are closed to swimmers at this time and we are actively informing our guests of this for their safety. A red ‘no swimming’ flag has been posted at our beach entrance. Our hotel facilities and dining outlets will remain open for as long as possible, depending on the progress of the storm.”

The Mickey’s Bistro and Bar has been damaged by strong waves on the South Shore in the past.

Ms Dier said: “Mickey’s Beach Bistro and Bar will have all removable fixtures and fittings taken away and secured and will then be boarded up to prevent damage from the storm. This will allow us to reopen the restaurant as soon as possible once the storm has passed.”

David Dodwell Jr, resort manager at the The Reefs Hotel and Club on South Shore Road, Southampton, said: “We are in the process of preparing the property to make it as safe as possible during the storm, which will include securing outdoor furniture, etc over the next few days.

“We have not had many guests decide to leave early, as of yet, but we are of course offering as many options as possible to help in any way they need and are making preparations for the guests that do stay through the storm. We haven’t had any official meetings yet with guests, as it is still early, but have information posted on the storm and are answering questions as needed.”

John Harvey of the Bermuda Hotel Association said it is still gathering statistics from its members on the total number of cancellations and rebookings due to the storm.

“It’s still too early to tell but I’m sure those guests who intended to come to Bermuda this weekend are probably reconsidering their vacation and will shortly rebook. Those that are here will be discussing whether to leave as soon as possible,” he said.

However, he believes from past experience that others may decide to stick around and make the best of the storm.

“Some who are booked into central Hamilton hotels may rebook to those on the South Shore to enjoy the view,” he said.

Colonial Insurance said it was staying open until 6pm today and tomorrow so customers can ensure their home and motor insurance policies are up-to-date and adequate to cover any loss due to storm damage. People can call 296-3700 or go to their Reid Street office for help.

Joanne MacPhee, executive director of the Bermuda Chamber of Commerce advised members that a full meeting of the Emergency Measures Organisation, including Chamber representatives, will be held tomorrow.

She encouraged “all members directly involved in the sale of hurricane supplies and services, including our grocers, wholesalers and insurance partners” to note contact information for the Chamber so it can disseminate information to the public before, during, and after the storm.

She added: “Let’s hope this is all precautionary and we sail through Leslie unscathed.”