Canada/ US: Tropical Storm Arthur 01L now heading into SW Nova Scotia – warnings in effect – Updated 050714 1200z

Tropical Storm ARTHUR (AL01)

..ARTHUR LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS…
…WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA… 
NHC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING INTO NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW
BRUNSWICK. 
– ENVIRONMENT CANADA

Wunderground. com

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm Surge (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050844
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

…ARTHUR LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS…
…WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…43.1N 66.9W
ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…981 MB…28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NANTUCKET…AND FOR CAPE COD FROM
PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION…HIGH WIND WARNINGS…FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH…
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH…35 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ARTHUR
WILL BE CROSSING NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS…AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH…110
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES…260 KM
FROM THE CENTER. YARTMOUTH IN WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA RECENTLY REPORT A
WIND GUST TO 46 MPH…74 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB…28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA IN CANADA SOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION…
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MAINE TODAY…BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERTAKING THE CIRCULATION OF
ARTHUR.

STORM SURGE…COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD
TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE…WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA…AND NEW
BRUNSWICK…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SWELLS ARE ALSO
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Storm Surge
Inundation

U.S. Tornado
Potential

NWS Local
Statements
US Watch/
Warning

 

NWS radar Loop from Boston, MA. Long Range Base Reflectivity

NWS radar Loop from Portland, ME. Long Range Base Reflectivity

NWS radar Loop from Caribou, ME Long Range Base Reflectivity

 American Red Cross: Find Your Local Red Cross

CANADA

Canadian Hurricane Centre symbol Legend

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 37 to 62 kilometres per hourTropical Depression

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 118 kilometres per hourHurricane

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 63 to 117 kilometres per hourTropical Storm

Icon for a storm system that used to be tropical but has since lost most of its tropical characteristicsPost-Tropical Storm

 

WOCN31 CWHX 050845
INTERMEDIATE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5:54 AM ADT
SATURDAY 5 JULY 2014.
———————————————————————
INTERMEDIATE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
NEW BRUNSWICK
QUEBEC MARITIME.

FOR POST-TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 AM ADT.

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT BY THE CHANCE OF ON THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING INTO NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW
BRUNSWICK.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: 43.3N 66.7W

ABOUT 60 KILOMETRES SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KM/HOUR

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST NEAR 40 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 MB

2. SUMMARY OF LATEST INFORMATION.

ARTHUR IS NOW HEADING INTO SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA. RAIN FROM A BAND
TO THE NORTH FED BY ARTHUR AND NORTH OF IT HAS BEEN BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN INTO PARTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK. RAIN DIRECTLY CAUSED BY THE STORN
IS BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA.
INCREASING WINDS GUSTING TO 90 KM/H ARE HITTING THE COAST SOUTH OF
YARMOUTH. FURTHER SOUTH BUOY 44024 IS RECORDING WINDS GUSTING
100 KM/H. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE FROM SATELLTE DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OF STORM FORCE WINDS WEST OF ARTHUR.

AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE WIND AND RAINFALL FORECAST
FOR THE MARITIMES. FOR QUEBEC, AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
FOR GASPÉ AND EAST AS WELL AS THE BASSE COTE NORD AREA OF EASTERN
QUEBEC AND ANTICOSTI ISLAND. NEWFOUNDLAND WILL BE ISSUEING RAINFALL
WARNINGS THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS
REGION OF LABRADOR

FLOODING DUE TO STORM SURGE CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNLIKELY. FOR WAVE ACTIVITY, THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
SEE BETWEEN 5-7 METRE WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE SATURDAY
MORNING AND ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ROUGH AND POUNDING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE PROBABLE ALONG MUCH OF
THE COAST WITH THESE WAVES. WAVES MAY REACH 9 METRES ALONG THE
SCOTIAN SLOPE.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END
_______________________________________________
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

 

Canada Severe Weather Alerts

 

Canadian Red Cross

 

TSR logo

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 5 Jul, 2014 9:00 GMT

 

Tropical Storm ARTHUR (AL01) currently located near 43.1 N 66.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
 Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the United States
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

Storm Surge

MARITIME

 

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0843

WTNT21 KNHC 050843
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NANTUCKET…AND FOR CAPE COD FROM
PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION…HIGH WIND WARNINGS…FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH…
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 66.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT……. 50NE 100SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT…….100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 420SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 66.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 67.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 90SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…240NE 180SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 47.0N 61.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…120NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 49.5N 57.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 52.5N 54.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 240SE 180SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 60.0N 51.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 58.5N 50.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 62.1N 43.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.1N 66.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

FZNT01 KWBC 050945
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC JUL 05
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 06
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC JUL 07

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR NEAR 43.1N66.9W 981 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 05
MOVING NE OR 035 DEG AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE
QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…100 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE
QUADRANT…300 NM SE QUADRANT…420 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 33 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 47.0N61.5W 986 MB.
WITHIN 100 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM NE AND 20 NM NW QUADRANTS
WINDS 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT. ALSO WITHIN 160 NM NE..180
NM SE…160 NM SW…AND 80 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 34 TO 50 KT.
SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 52.5N54.0W 989 MB.
WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 45
KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 60.0N51.5W. WINDS 35
TO 45 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY
BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 58.5N50.0W. WINDS 30
TO 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR NEAR 62.1N43.2W. WINDS
20 TO 30 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 55N51W 1010 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 420 NM S QUADRANT
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N36W 1004 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.LOW 65N59W 998 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. WITHIN 360 NM E QUADRANT AND
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 67N62W 1004 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S AND 180 NM
E QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA. CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ABOVE FROM 36N TO
43N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR
ABOVE WITHIN 360 NM E AND NE…540 NM S…AND 180 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH POST-TROPICAL ARTHUR
ABOVE WITHIN 600 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 420 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 45N TO 60N
BETWEEN 37W AND 45W AND FROM 48N TO 53N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 43N TO 53N BETWEEN 44W AND 56W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 53N TO 60N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W
AND FROM 45N TO 56N BETWEEN 50W AND 35W.

.HIGH 56N35W 1018 MB MOVING SE 25 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.HIGH 39N41W 1030 MB NEARLY STATIONARY THEN MOVING NE 15 KT
AFTER 24 HOURS.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N40W 1030 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N74W 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N60W 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 07.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 82W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
74W AND 82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E
SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.n

5 thoughts on “Canada/ US: Tropical Storm Arthur 01L now heading into SW Nova Scotia – warnings in effect – Updated 050714 1200z

  1. NASA Hurricane on Facebook:

    ATLANTIC- 8 p.m. EDT Update: Hurricane Arthur Just 80 miles off Cape Cod, Massachusetts
    – At 8 p.m. EDT on July 4, the National Hurricane Center noted that Arthur maintained hurricane strength with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph. Arthur was just 95 miles (150 km) south-southeast of Chatham, Massachusetts (Cape Cod) and 300 miles (480 km) southwest of Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada. Arthur’s center was near 40.3 north and 69.6 west. It was moving to the northeast at 28 mph (45 kph) and had a minimum central pressure of 936 millibars.
    Updated watches and warnings as of 8 p.m. EDT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Nantucket, Mass. and Cape Cod from Provincetown to Woods Hole, Mass. Also for Nova Scotia Including Cape Breton Island, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Grand-Anse.
    This GOES-East satellite infrared image shows that the northern side of Arthur’s clouds extend into eastern Canada, while the core remains tight. The image was captured on July 4 at 8:15 p.m. EDT.

    Like

  2. TSR N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 5 Jul, 2014 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

    Tropical Storm ARTHUR (AL01) currently located near 45.0 N 65.5 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    the United States
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
    probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
    probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
    probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
    probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
    probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

  3. WOCN31 CWHX 061445
    INTERMEDIATE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE
    CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
    AT 11:37 AM ADT SUNDAY 6 JULY 2014
    ———————————————————————
    INTERMEDIATE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
    NOVA SCOTIA
    PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
    NEW BRUNSWICK.

    FOR POST-TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

    THIS IS A SPECIAL METEOROLOGICAL SUMMARY FOR POST-TROPICAL
    STORM ARTHUR.

    THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
    ON THIS STORM.

    ———————————————————————
    INTERMEDIATE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ENDED FOR:
    NEWFOUNDLAND
    QUEBEC MARITIME.

    ALTHOUGH THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF ARTHUR ARE STILL OCCURRING
    OVER PARTS OF THESE REGIONS, THIS BULLETIN IS SERVING AS A
    SUMMARY REPORT FOR THE PRIMARY AFFECTED AREAS AROUND THE
    MARITIME PROVINCES.

    ———————————————————————
    ==DISCUSSION==

    *** METEOROLOGICAL SUMMARY OF THE EVENT ***.

    HURRICANE ARTHUR TRANSFORMED INTO A POTENT POST-TROPICAL STORM OVER
    THE MARITIME PROVINCES ON SATURDAY JULY 5 2014 CAUSING SIGNIFICANT
    TREE DAMAGE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOODING FOR MANY AREAS. THE
    TRANSFORMATION WAS A RESULT OF THE MERGING OF THE HURRICANE WITH A
    COLD FRONT – SIMILAR TO HURRICANE IGOR IN NEWFOUNDLAND IN 2010 – BUT
    OBVIOUSLY FARTHER WEST AND NOT AS SEVERE.

    THIS EVENT AS WELL AS OTHERS LIKE IGOR HIGHLIGHT THAT WHEN A
    HURRICANE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL STORM IT IS NOT ALWAYS A
    ‘DOWNGRADE’. IN FACT, WHEN THESE STORMS UNDERGO THE TRANSFORMATION
    TO POST-TROPICAL STATUS, THE AREA OF HIGH WINDS (AND RAIN) EXPANDS
    SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
    INTENSITY IN THE STORM MAY DECREASE A BIT. AS A RESULT A WIDER AREA
    IS AFFECTED AND THE STORM’S TOTAL ENERGY ACTUALLY INCREASES IN MANY
    CASES. IN THE CASE OF ARTHUR THE HIGHEST WINDS AT THE END OF ITS
    HURRICANE STATUS WERE ABOUT 120 KM/H AND DURING THE HOURS AFTER WE
    DECLARED IT POST-TROPICAL THE HIGHEST WINDS WERE STILL AROUND 110
    KM/H (WHICH WE SAW IN THE FORM OF GUSTS OVER LAND).

    VIGOROUS HURRICANE TRANSFORMATIONS LIKE THIS HAVE STRONG WINDS NOT
    ONLY TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE STORM CENTRE (LOWEST PRESSURE) TRACKS
    BUT ALSO SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK AS WE SAW DURING THIS
    STORM AND OTHERS SUCH AS IGOR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND IN 2010. THESE
    LEFT-OF-TRACK WINDS ARE USUALLY FROM THE NORTH, NORTHWEST OR WEST
    AND ARE WHAT WE REFER TO IN METEOROLOGY AS A “STING JET”. IT WAS
    THIS SO-CALLED “STING JET” THAT CAUSED THE HIGH WINDS AT
    FREDERICTON, ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
    SPECIFICALLY THE ANNAPOLIS VALLEY. WE EMPHASIZED THESE WINDS IN
    THE FORECAST BULLETINS AND DURING MEDIA INTERVIEWS. THIS IS NOT A
    NEW PHENOMENON – BUT IS A TERM NOT OFTEN REFERRED-TO IN TRADITIONAL
    WEATHER FORECASTS.

    WHAT WAS EXCEPTIONAL ABOUT THIS STORM WAS THE EXTENT OF THIS WIND
    FEATURE TO THE LEFT (NORTHWEST) OF THE STORM TRACK – IN FREDERICTON
    – AND THE PEAK STRENGTH OF IT OVER THE ANNAPOLIS VALLEY WITH THE
    EXTREME GUST OF 138 KM/H AT THE GREENWOOD D.N.D. BASE. ALSO OF NOTE
    WITH THESE TYPES OF STORMS IS THAT THERE CAN BE VERY LITTLE RAIN AND
    EVEN SUNSHINE ON THE RIGHTHAND SIDE (USUALLY SOUTH) OF THE STORM
    CENTRE/TRACK. RAINFALL IS TYPICALLY VERY HEAVY NORTH (LEFT) OF THE
    STORM TRACK WHERE THE COLD FRONT ACTS AS A CONDUIT FOR THE MOISTURE
    FROM THE HURRICANE.

    THE OFFICIAL STATUS OF ARTHUR AT LANDFALL WAS A NEAR
    HURRICANE-STRENGTH POST-TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60
    KNOTS (110 KM/H). THE LANDFALL LOCATION OF THE CENTRE WAS IN THE
    VICINITY OF PORT MAITLAND / METEGHAN IN WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
    THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AT LANDFALL WAS 980 MB (28.94″).

    FURTHER DETAILS:
    ——————————————————————

    LISTING OF TOP WIND SPEEDS:

    MAXIMUM GUSTS (KM/H):
    ———————————————

    GREENWOOD, NS 138
    BRIER ISLAND, NS 128
    FIVE ISLANDS, NS 127*
    YARMOUTH, NS 111
    LUNENBURG, NS 108
    CHARLOTTETOWN, NS 105
    FREDERICTON, NB 100

    THE GASPÉ REGION OF QUEBEC AND THE MAGDELAN ISLANDS WERE AFFECTED
    WITH HIGH WINDS AS WELL WITH GUSTS FROM 80 TO NEAR 100 KM/H.
    NEWFOUNDLAND IS STILL BEING AFFECTED AT THE TIME THIS BULLETIN WAS
    ISSUED.

    LISTING OF TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS:

    TOTAL RAINFALL (MM):
    ———————————————

    ST. STEPHEN, NB 143
    NOONAN, NB 140
    MILLVILLE, NB 127
    MIRAMICHI, NB 122

    MUCH LESS RAINFALL IN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA. YARMOUTH
    HAD 52 MM AND WESTERN PEI HAD 27 MM (NORTH CAPE). GASPÉ RECORDED 67
    MM.

    * VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVER.

    OFFSHORE WIND AND WAVES:

    BUOY 44024 5.4 M
    BUOY 44258 6.9 M (MOUTH HALIFAX HARBOUR)
    BUOY 44150 9.0 M

    END/FOGARTY
    _______________________________________________
    http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

    Like

Goaty's News welcomes your replies. Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s