United States (FL): Tropical Storm EMILY 311800Z nr 27.6N 82.2W, moving E at 10 mph (NHC FL) – Published 31 Jul 2017 1825z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm EMILY

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida

National Hurricane Center (FL)

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311748
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

…EMILY LOCATED INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM SE OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM SW OF BARTOW FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 85 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Anclote River
southward to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.2 West. Emily is
moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed are expected by tonight
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will
continue to move farther inland over the west-central Florida
peninsula this afternoon, and move across central Florida through
tonight. Emily is forecast to move offshore of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression
while it moves across the Florida peninsula this afternoon and
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km),
mainly southeast through south of the center. A wind gust to 38 mph
was recently observed in Punta Gorda, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central
Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts
up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida,
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4
inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area
through this afternoon.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado could occur across the central and
southern Florida Peninsula today, with isolated waterspouts
possible over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1434

WTNT21 KNHC 311434
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017
1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 20NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.7N 81.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.9N 79.6W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.2N 75.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.3N 70.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.7N 63.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 82.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

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Italy: Fear of magma buildup under Bay of Pozzuoli, nr Naples. Phlegraean Fields ground rising by about 3 cm a month – 050213 1315z

The ground of the Campi Flegrei (“burning fields”), also known as the Phlegraean Fields, has risen more in recent weeks than it has in a long time.

(Image: NASA, wikimedia.org) Pozzuoli and the Campi Flegrei with names. Photo taken from the ISS.

This does not necessary indicate a heightened risk of an eruption, however, says Thomas Wiersberg, a scientific drilling expert for the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) in Potsdam.

The Phlegraean Fields are a large caldera, or volcanic crater, lying mostly underwater off the Italian coast.

(Image: nowtopians.com)

The caldera is thought to have been formed by a massive eruption some 35 000-40 000 years ago. The last major eruption in the fields of boiling mud and sulphurous steam holes, one of a few dozen super volcanoes worldwide, occurred in 1538.

Wiersberg is part of an international research team that began drilling into the ground not far from the caldera last summer to monitor possible early warning signs of an eruption.

The team has drilled a pilot hole to a depth of 500 metres but no data has been gathered yet, Wiersberg said in an interview with dpa.

Italy’s Deparment of Civil Protection recently raised the alert level for the Phlegraean Fields, where Wiersberg said the ground was rising by about three centimetres a month.

There are concerns that a magma chamber under the fields – presumably connected to the one under Mount Vesuvius, east of Naples – is filling up, the rising pressure possibly heightening the danger of an eruption.

As Wiersberg pointed out, however, the two episodes of considerable ground uplift since the 1960s were not followed by an eruption.

The uplift in the early 1970s – about 1.50 metres in three years – was somewhat greater than the current one, he said.

“Many houses cracked,” after which the ground deformation sharply subsided, Wiersberg said. “But it’s true that the uplift has increased again during the past two or three months.”

An eruption could have serious consequences for the heavily populated region with knock-on effects for the whole of Europe.

There could also be worldwide impact, for example in the form of climatic changes.

No forecasts have been made thus far.

Since super volcanoes seldom undergo massive eruptions, empirical data is lacking.

“It’s easy to assert there’ll be an eruption sometime. That doesn’t help us, though. We need more specific information,” Wiersberg said.

He said the drilling project aimed in part to monitor the Phlegraean Fields over the long term and gain more knowledge of what had occurred earlier in the super volcano.

“First we’ve got to understand what’s happening under the surface,” Wiersberg said. Then it may be possible to say more about the likelihood of an eruption.

Fears of nearby residents – and some scientists – that the drilling could “awaken” the super volcano have proved to be unfounded.

“Technically, everything went smoothly. No additional volcanic activities were triggered, nor were there any problems with gases or fluids,” he noted.

It has not yet been decided when the scientists will continue their project and begin drilling to a depth of 3 kilometres.

“At the moment it’s mainly a financial question,” Wiersberg said. “There’ll be deep drilling when Italy provides the necessary funds.”

Tuesday, 05 February, 2013 at 08:18 (08:18 AM) UTC RSOE

Related:

Phlegraean Fields – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Italia: La paura di accumulo di magma sotto Golfo di Pozzuoli, Napoli nr. Dei Campi Flegrei a terra aumenta di circa 3 cm al mese – 050.213 1315z
5 feb 2013 da News Goaty di

La terra dei Campi Flegrei (“campi ardenti”), noto anche come i Campi Flegrei, aumentata di pi nelle ultime settimane, di quanto non sia in un tempo lungo.

(Immagine: NASA, wikimedia.org), Pozzuoli e dei Campi Flegrei con i nomi. Foto scattata dalla ISS.

Questo non necessario, indicare un rischio maggiore di un’eruzione, comunque, dice Thomas Wiersberg, esperto di perforazione scientifica per il Centro di ricerca tedesco per le geoscienze (GFZ) di Potsdam.

I Campi Flegrei sono una caldera di grandi dimensioni, o cratere vulcanico, si trova in gran parte sottomarino al largo della costa italiana.

(Foto: nowtopians.com)

La caldera si pensa si siano formati da una massiccia eruzione circa 35 000-40 000 anni fa. L’ultima grande eruzione nel campo di fango bollente e fori vapore sulfureo, uno dei pochi dozzina di super-vulcani in tutto il mondo, si verificato nel 1538.

Wiersberg fa parte di un gruppo di ricerca internazionale che ha avuto inizio perforazione nel terreno non lontano dalla caldera scorsa estate per monitorare eventuali segni premonitori di un’eruzione.

Il team ha praticato un foro pilota ad una profondit di 500 metri, ma i dati non sono stati raccolti ancora, Wiersberg ha detto in un’intervista con dpa.

Deparment in Italia della Protezione Civile ha recentemente innalzato il livello di allerta per i Campi Flegrei, dove Wiersberg ha detto che il terreno stato un incremento di circa tre centimetri al mese.

Ci sono preoccupazioni che una camera magmatica sotto i campi – presumibilmente collegato a quello sotto il monte Vesuvio, a est di Napoli – si sta riempiendo, la crescente pressione possibilmente aumentando il pericolo di un’eruzione.

Come Wiersberg sottolineato, tuttavia, i due episodi di innalzamento del terreno considerevole dal 1960 non sono stati seguiti da un’eruzione.

Il sollevamento nei primi anni 1970 – circa 1,50 metri in tre anni – era un po ‘pi grande di quello attuale, ha detto.

“Molte case cracking”, dopo di che la deformazione del suolo bruscamente abbassata, Wiersberg detto. “Ma vero che la percentuale di maggiorazione aumentata ancora una volta nel corso degli ultimi due o tre mesi.”

Un’eruzione potrebbe avere gravi conseguenze per la regione densamente popolata, con effetti a catena per tutta l’Europa.

Ci potrebbero anche essere impatto mondiale, per esempio sotto forma di cambiamenti climatici.

Non le previsioni sono state fatte finora.

Dal super-vulcani raramente sottoposti a massicce eruzioni, dati empirici carente.

“E ‘facile affermare che ci sar un’eruzione qualche volta. Questo non ci aiuta, per. Abbiamo bisogno di informazioni pi specifiche “, ha detto Wiersberg.

Ha detto che il progetto di perforazione in parte finalizzato a monitorare i Campi Flegrei a lungo termine e di acquisire maggiori conoscenze su ci che era accaduto in precedenza nel super vulcano.

“Prima dobbiamo capire cosa succede sotto la superficie”, ha detto Wiersberg. Poi pu essere possibile dire di pi sulla possibilit di una eruzione.

I timori di residenti nelle vicinanze – e alcuni scienziati – che la perforazione potrebbe “risvegliare” il super vulcano si sono rivelate infondate.

“Tecnicamente, tutto andato liscio. Non ci sono ulteriori attivit vulcaniche sono stati attivati, n ci sono stati dei problemi con il gas o fluidi “, ha osservato.

Non stato ancora deciso quando gli scienziati continueranno il loro progetto e iniziare di perforare a una profondit di 3 chilometri.

“Al momento soprattutto una questione finanziaria”, ha detto Wiersberg. “Ci sar foratura profonda in cui l’Italia fornisce i fondi necessari.”

Marted, 5 Febbraio 2013 alle 08:18 (08:18) UTC RSOE

Related:

Phlegraean Fields – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia