Central Pacific/ Hawaii: Hurricane Ignacio 12E CAT4 301600Z POSITION nr 18.4N 148.5W, moving NNW 10 knots (JTWC) – Updated 30 Aug 2015 1550z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Ignacio 12E CAT4

HAWAII: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST WATERS (NWS HONOLULU HI)

…..MAJOR HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD….CPHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 36 FEET (JTWC)

ep201512_5day 29a (Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

ep201512_5day 29a
(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center

EP122015W1 30

WTPA33 PHFO 301154
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGNACIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
200 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

…MAJOR HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.9N 148.2W
ABOUT 470 MI…750 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 680 MI…1090 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…948 MB…27.99 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE.
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS OF THE
INITIAL ISSUANCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM HST…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 148.2 WEST. IGNACIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF IGNACIO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND ON MONDAY…THEN NORTHEAST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH…220 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGNACIO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IGNACIO WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB…27.99 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY…AND STARTING
MONDAY ON MAUI.

RAINFALL…STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES MAINLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN…ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IGNACIO WILL ARRIVE ALONG EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RESULTANT SURF WILL BE LARGE AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING…ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
HURRICANE IGNACIO LOCAL STATEMENT

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 12E (Ignacio) Warning #23
Issued at 30/1600Z

ep1215 30

WTPN33 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 023
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 18.0N 148.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 148.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 19.1N 149.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 20.3N 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 21.4N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 22.4N 153.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 24.3N 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 26.5N 159.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 28.7N 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 148.5W.
HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z
AND 311600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03C (KILO) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (JIMENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Tropical Storm Warning

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

…HURRICANE IGNACIO APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST…

.AT 2 AM HST…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS ABOUT 400 NM
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT.

PHZ122-124-310300-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.W.2012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
346 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

* WINDS AND SEAS…POTENTIALLY DISTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY
HIGH SEAS MAY AFFECT THESE AREAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT…
SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE.

$$

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1436

WTPA23 PHFO 301445 RRA
TCMCP3

HURRICANE IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE.
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS OF THE
INITIAL ISSUANCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 148.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT……. 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 148.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 148.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.1N 149.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.3N 150.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
Marine Zone Forecast
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…

Synopsis: A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS ABOUT 400 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO CUT THROUGH THE ISLAND/S WINDWARD WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Today
Northeast winds 20 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. Mixed swell northwest 3 ft and east 5 to 6 ft. Scattered showers in the morning…then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tonight
North winds 20 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. Mixed swell northwest 3 ft and east 7 to 8 ft. Scattered showers.
Monday
Tropical storm conditions expected. Northwest winds 25 kt. Wind waves 9 ft. Swell east 9 ft. Showers likely.
Monday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected. West winds 25 kt. Wind waves 11 ft. Swell east 10 to 11 ft. Showers likely.
Tuesday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Southwest winds 20 kt. Wind waves 8 ft. Swell east 10 ft. Haze through the day. Showers likely in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. South winds 15 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. Swell east 5 to 6 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
Wednesday
South winds 15 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. Swell east 8 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
Wednesday Night
South winds 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Swell east 8 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
Thursday
Southeast winds 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Swell east 8 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.

There may be more warnings here:  METAREA XII

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3 thoughts on “Central Pacific/ Hawaii: Hurricane Ignacio 12E CAT4 301600Z POSITION nr 18.4N 148.5W, moving NNW 10 knots (JTWC) – Updated 30 Aug 2015 1550z (GMT/UTC)

  1. TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2015 21:00 GMT

    Hurricane IGNACIO (12E) currently located near 14.6 N 144.5 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hilo (19.7 N, 155.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours
    Honolulu (21.3 N, 157.8 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

  2. CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
    Post-tropical cyclone Ignacio / 12E
    Warning 45 from CPHC at 0300 GMT
    Position 35.5N 164.5W
    Location 1060 miles NNW of Honolulu, Hawaii
    Movement 355° (N) at 15 knots
    Maximum sustained winds 55 knots gusting to 70 knots
    Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 185 miles of the centre
    Minimum central pressure 985 mbar
    Threatened landmasses NONE
    FINAL WARNING

    Ignacio is moving north and has ceased to qualify as a tropical cyclone. The system will continue to move north, before veering northeast towards Canada.
    Credit: TCU

    Like

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