Atlantic Ocean: Post-Tropical Cyclone OSCAR 312100Z 39.3N 49.6W, moving NNE ~30.2kt 976mb (NHC FL) – Updated 31 Oct 2018 2300Z (GMT/UTC)

October 31, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR

Oscar is a storm equiv to a CAT1 Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale

…..OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE…
…HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT…….Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km) – NHC FL

#FaeroeIslands #Iceland #Scotland #Ireland #NorthernIreland be aware!

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

…OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE…
…HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…39.3N 49.6W
ABOUT 540 MI…870 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 975 MI…1570 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 35 MPH…56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar
was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 49.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
35 mph (56 km/h), and a motion toward the northeast with some
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next two to three
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next
several days, Oscar is expected to remain a powerful post-tropical
cyclone over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean into
the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Oscar that are affecting Bermuda will
subside tonight. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Oscar. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

Canadian Hurricane Centre

No statements currently issued.

BWS – Tropical Update Bulletin

POST TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR

IS NOT A THREAT TO BERMUDA

Advisory #20 (last advisory),
6 pm Wed, Oct 31, 2018 (2100 UTC Wed, Oct 31, 2018)

Refresh browser for latest image

KEY: Blue = 34-50 kts, Yellow = 50-64 kts, and Red = 64 kts and greater

Diagonal shading indicates fringe winds (34kts or greater surrounding the storm’s core)

Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) has passed.

Current Position:	39.3N 49.6W approx. 849 nm NE of Bermuda
Recent Movement:	NNE or 30 degrees at 30 kt
Central Pressure:	976 mb / 28.82 in
Max Winds:	65kt gusts 80kt

BWS Tropical Update Bulletins (TUBs), in line with NHC updates, are normally issued every 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). When a tropical watch or warning is in effect for Bermuda, intermediate TUBs are issued at 3-hour intervals between the regular TUBs (06, 12, 18, and 00 UTC). Additionally, TUBs may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 31 Oct, 2018 15:00 GMT

Hurricane OSCAR is currently located near 36.6 N 51.6 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). OSCAR is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OSCAR is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
  the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 95% in about 93 hours
    Iceland
        probability for TS is 90% in about 93 hours
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 90% in about 93 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 65% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 93 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 93 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 93 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 93 hours
    Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 93 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 93 hours
    Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 93 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 93 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 93 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Jan Mayen
        probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds

Probability of tropical storm winds to 69 hours lead

Probability of tropical storm winds to 93 hours lead

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT21 KNHC 312033
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018
2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 70NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT…….230NE 240SE 240SW 280NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 420SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 50.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
50 KT…100NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT…300NE 330SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT… 90NE 110SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT…330NE 360SE 390SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 100SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT…300NE 420SE 390SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 150SW 60NW.
34 KT…360NE 450SE 420SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 180SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…360NE 480SE 540SW 450NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 49.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OSCAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Canada Hurricane Centre

Marine Weather Warnings

FZNT01 KWBC 312139
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2230 UTC WED OCT 31 2018

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).

FOR INFORMATION ON ATLANTIC ICEBERGS SEE INFORMATION FROM NORTH
AMERICAN ICE SERVICE AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/ATL_TAB.SHTML

PAN PAN

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING…
.POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 39.3N 49.6W 976 MB AT 2100 UTC
OCT 31 MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 30 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM S
SEMICIRCLE…230 NM NE QUADRANT AND 280 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 330 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…360 NM NW
QUADRANT AND 420 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE
FROM 31N TO 44N BETWEEN 37W AND 64W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 46.8N
41.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 330 NM NE QUADRANT…360 NM SE QUADRANT…390
NM SW QUADRANT…AND 270 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 600 NM NE…660 NM SE…960 NM SW…AND 360 NM NW
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 46 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 32N TO 54N BETWEEN
35W AND 54W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR E OF AREA NEAR
54.2N 28.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT…450 NM SE
QUADRANT…420 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 300 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 720 NM NE…660 NM SE…1440 NM SW…AND
540 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 48 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 41N TO
58N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 59.5N
15.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR NEAR 67.0N
2.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…STORM WARNING…
.06 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 64N38W 993 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 60N37W 999 MB. N OF 64N AND E OF GREENLAND
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. WITHIN 60 NM E AND 120 NM SE
OF THE GREENLAND COAST WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER E OF AREA 50N31W 1001 MB MOVING E
30 KT AND SECOND CENTER 50N45W 1001 MB MOVING E 30 KT. WITHIN
360 NM SW QUADRANT OF MAIN CENTER AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF
SECOND CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.WITHIN 120 NM W AND SW OF THE GREENLAND COAST S OF 64N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.

.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 240 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 40N60W TO
35N75W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 45N45W 1012 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST W AND NW OF A LINE FROM 31N70W TO 40N60W WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 43N TO 47N
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 46N TO 51N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.DENSE FOG. 48 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM
FROM 40N TO 44N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

.LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY NW OF A LINE FROM 62N62W TO 67N53W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.HIGH 33N75W 1023 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N65W 1024 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N54W 1029 MB.

.HIGH 58N62W 1020 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 57N54W 1016 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC OSCAR WELL N OF AREA. COLD FRONT FROM 31N52W TO 22N68W
THEN STATIONARY TO 20N75W. E OF FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N40W TO
27N47W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. N OF 29N W OF
FRONT TO 60W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
A LINE FROM 31N38W TO 23N53W TO 28N62W TO 26N72W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N43W TO 24N50W TO 22N57W
THEN STATIONARY TO 21N66W. N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 37W S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF A LINE FROM
31N37W TO 27N45W TO 27N57W TO 31N62W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 11 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 31N36W TO 22N48W TO
20N55W THEN DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N64W. N OF FRONT
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL.

.ATLC FROM 16N TO 26N E OF 39W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN MIXED NE AND E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN 18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO 18 HOUR FORECAST N OF 26N W OF 89W S WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N93W TO 25N98W. N OF 25N E
OF FRONT TO 85W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. W OF
FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N86W TO 22N92W TO 19N96W. W
OF A LINE FROM 23N93W TO 19N96W N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Latest Watches, Warnings & Advisories

Small Craft Warning

Valid: This afternoon through This evening

Updated: 4:30 pm Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Small Craft Warning
Issued when winds of mean speed 20 to 33 knots and/or seas of 9 feet or greater are forecast to affect the marine area within the next 36 hours.

Please refer to the latest forecast for detailed information on conditions likely to affect Bermuda and the surrounding marine area. This is available by logging onto our website at www.weather.bm.

The above warning(s) will be updated as conditions warrant.

– Meteorologist: Ken Smith

FQNT21 EGRR 312000
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS BULLETIN FOR METAREA 1
ISSUED AT 2000 UTC ON WEDNESDAY 31 OCTOBER 2018
BY THE MET OFFICE, EXETER, UNITED KINGDOM
FOR THE PERIOD 2000 UTC ON WEDNESDAY 31 OCTOBER UNTIL
2000 UTC ON THURSDAY 01 NOVEMBER 2018

STORM WARNING
AT 311200UTC, NEW LOW MOVING RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST
EXPECTED 45 NORTH 45 WEST 968 BY 011200UTC. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION AFTER 011600UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS
AT 311200UTC, NEW LOW MOVING RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST
EXPECTED 45 NORTH 45 WEST 968 BY 011200UTC. LOW 64 NORTH
28 WEST 990 EXPECTED 63 NORTH 30 WEST 999 BY SAME TIME.
LOW 51 NORTH 38 WEST 999 EXPECTED 48 NORTH 15 WEST 1008
BY THAT TIME. AT 311200UTC, LOW 59 NORTH 13 WEST 989
EXPECTED 62 NORTH 09 WEST 995 BY 011200UTC. LOW 65 NORTH
00 WEST 986 EXPECTED 68 NORTH 09 WEST 989 BY SAME TIME.
HIGH 66 NORTH 47 WEST 1021 DISSIPATING BY THAT TIME
AREA FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS

SOLE
NORTHWESTERLY BACKING WESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING VARIABLE
4 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR
GOOD

SHANNON ROCKALL
WEST OR NORTHWEST 5 OR 6. ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
LATER. SHOWERS. GOOD

BAILEY
CYCLONIC BECOMING NORTHWEST, 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH.
SHOWERS. GOOD

FAEROES SOUTHEAST ICELAND
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, BECOMING WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 OR
6 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR
GOOD

EAST NORTHERN SECTION
CYCLONIC IN FAR NORTHWEST, OTHERWISE NORTHERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY, 5 TO 7, BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5 LATER
IN WEST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH FOR A
TIME IN FAR NORTHWEST. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR

WEST NORTHERN SECTION
IN NORTH, CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE
9 UNTIL LATER IN FAR NORTHWEST. ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY HIGH FOR A TIME IN FAR NORTH. RAIN OR
SHOWERS, WITH SNOW IN FAR NORTHWEST. MODERATE OR POOR,
OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR IN FAR NORTHWEST.
IN SOUTH, NORTHWESTERLY BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5,
BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4 LATER IN FAR SOUTH, THEN
BECOMING EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 5 OR 6 IN FAR SOUTH.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. SHOWERS, RAIN LATER IN FAR SOUTH.
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR LATER IN FAR SOUTH

EAST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, NORTHWESTERLY 5 OR 6, BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4,
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 7 LATER IN WEST. MODERATE OR
ROUGH. OCCASIONAL RAIN, FOG PATCHES. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY, BACKING SOUTHERLY
LATER IN WEST, 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH. OCCASIONAL
RAIN, FOG PATCHES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY
POOR

WEST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 5 OR 6, BECOMING
CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8 LATER, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN
WEST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, BECOMING ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH
LATER. RAIN OR SHOWERS, FOG PATCHES. MODERATE OR POOR,
OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7, BACKING SOUTHERLY 6 TO
GALE 8, INCREASING SEVERE GALE 9 OR STORM 10 LATER IN
SOUTHWEST. ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH OR
HIGH LATER IN SOUTHWEST. RAIN OR SHOWERS, FOG PATCHES.
MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

DENMARK STRAIT
IN AREA NORTH OF 70 NORTH, NORTHERLY 6 TO GALE 8,
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN SOUTH. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH IN SOUTH. OCCASIONAL SNOW, FAIR
LATER. MODERATE OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR, BECOMING GOOD
LATER. MODERATE OR SEVERE ICING WITH TEMPERATURES MS05 TO
MS08.
IN AREA SOUTH OF 70 NORTH, EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 6 TO
GALE 8, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 UNTIL LATER. VERY
ROUGH OR HIGH, BECOMING ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH LATER.
OCCASIONAL RAIN OR SNOW. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY
VERY POOR. MODERATE OR SEVERE ICING IN NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES MS03 TO MS05

NORTH ICELAND
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 7, INCREASING
GALE 8 OR SEVERE GALE 9 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
BECOMING ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH LATER. OCCASIONAL RAIN OR
SNOW. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR. SEVERE OR
VERY SEVERE ICING DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES MS06 TO MS09.
IN SOUTH, NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 7, BECOMING CYCLONIC 6 TO
GALE 8 LATER, OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN NORTHWEST.
ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN SOUTHEAST.
OCCASIONAL RAIN, WITH SNOW IN NORTHWEST. MODERATE OR
POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR IN NORTHWEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ICING IN NORTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND MS02

NORWEGIAN BASIN
SOUTHWESTERLY BACKING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY, 5 TO 7
INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES, DECREASING 3 OR 4 LATER IN
WEST. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

OUTLOOK FOR FOLLOWING 24 HOURS:
VIOLENT STORMS EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL SECTION. STORMS
EXPECTED IN EAST CENTRAL SECTION AND NORTH ICELAND. GALES
OR SEVERE GALES EXPECTED IN SHANNON, ROCKALL, BAILEY,
EAST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST NORTHERN SECTION, DENMARK
STRAIT AND NORWEGIAN BASIN
UNSCHEDULED STORM WARNINGS ARE BROADCAST VIA SAFETYNET
AND IN
BULLETIN WONT54 EGRR AVAILABLE VIA SOME INTERNET AND
FTPMAIL
OUTLETS=

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Atlantic Ocean/ UK: Post Tropical Cyclone Helene 16/1500Z 43.8N 25.7W, moving N 25 kt 989mb (NHC)- Updated 16 Sep 2018 1700Z (GMT/UTC)

September 16, 2018 by Goaty's News UK

Post-Tropical Cyclone HELENE/ Storm Helene (UK)

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (FL US)

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE
OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS… //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF
MET EIREANN AT HTTPS… //WWW.MET.IE/.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE…UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

United Kingdom

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for ‘North East England’, ‘North West England’, ‘Northern Ireland’, ‘South West England’, ‘Strathclyde’, ‘SW Scotland, Lothian Borders’, ‘Wales’, ‘Yorkshire & Humber’

Updated 16 September at 0926 BST

Valid from 1800 BST on Mon 17 September to 0800 BST on Tue 18 September

Storm Helene will bring a spell of strong winds to western parts of the UK in particular late Monday and early Tuesday.

– Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport expected.

– Some bus and train services affected, with some journeys taking longer.

– Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges.

– Some short term loss of power and other services.

– Coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities affected by spray and/or large waves.

– Some damage to trees is possible, for example large branches or trees falling in a few places.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT23 KNHC 161441
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT…180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z…ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

FQNT21 EGRR 160800
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS BULLETIN FOR METAREA 1
ISSUED AT 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2018
BY THE MET OFFICE, EXETER, UNITED KINGDOM
FOR THE PERIOD 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 16 SEPTEMBER UNTIL 0800
UTC ON MONDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2018

STORM WARNING
AT 160000UTC, TROPICAL STORM ‘HELENE’ 40 NORTH 32 WEST
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL EXPECTED 46 NORTH 21 WEST 985 BY
170000UTC. WINDS WILL REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE
THROUGHOUT. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH VIOLENT
STORM FORCE 11 IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN 50 MILES
OF THE CENTRE BETWEEN 161800UTC AND 170800UTC. LOW 58
NORTH 11 WEST 992 EXPECTED 65 NORTH 01 WEST 984 BY SAME
TIME. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE STORM FORCE
10 AT TIMES AROUND 50 MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM 162200UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS
AT 160000UTC, TROPICAL STORM ‘HELENE’ 40 NORTH 32 WEST
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL EXPECTED 46 NORTH 21 WEST 985 BY
170000UTC. LOW 58 NORTH 11 WEST 992 EXPECTED 65 NORTH 01
WEST 984 BY SAME TIME. LOW 61 NORTH 26 WEST 980 EXPECTED
63 NORTH 20 WEST 984 BY THAT TIME. AT 160000UTC, LOW 53
NORTH 38 WEST 1003 EXPECTED 54 NORTH 23 WEST 1001 BY
170000UTC
AREA FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS

SOLE
SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 AT FIRST EXCEPT IN WEST, OTHERWISE
VARIABLE 4, BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5,
INCREASING 6 TO GALE 8 LATER IN WEST. SLIGHT OR MODERATE,
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH. OCCASIONAL RAIN AT FIRST, FOG PATCHES
DEVELOPING. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

SHANNON ROCKALL
WEST BACKING SOUTH 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH IN ROCKALL.
RAIN OR SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

BAILEY FAEROES
CYCLONIC, BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST, 5 TO 7, INCREASING
GALE 8 AT TIMES. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR SQUALLY SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

SOUTHEAST ICELAND
SOUTHEASTERLY 6 TO GALE 8 AT FIRST IN NORTHEAST,
OTHERWISE WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR THUNDERY SHOWERS. GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR

EAST NORTHERN SECTION
CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES, DECREASING 4
AT TIMES LATER, THEN BECOMING CYCLONIC 4 OR 5,
OCCASIONALLY 6 LATER IN FAR SOUTHEAST. ROUGH OR VERY
ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST OF ICELAND. RAIN
OR SHOWERS, THUNDERY AT TIMES IN NORTH. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR IN NORTH

WEST NORTHERN SECTION
IN NORTHEAST, NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7,
INCREASING GALE 8 AT TIMES IN FAR NORTH. ROUGH OR VERY
ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD.
IN SOUTHEAST, WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7,
DECREASING MAINLY 3 OR 4. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY
VERY ROUGH AT FIRST IN FAR EAST. OCCASIONAL RAIN AT
FIRST, OTHERWISE SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD.
IN SOUTHWEST, NORTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, BECOMING VARIABLE 3
OR 4. MODERATE OR ROUGH. SHOWERS. GOOD.
IN NORTHWEST, NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 3 OR 4 IN FAR
WEST, OTHERWISE 5 TO 7, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8 LATER IN FAR
NORTH. MODERATE OR ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH LATER.
RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

EAST CENTRAL SECTION
IN NORTH, SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY, BECOMING CYCLONIC,
4 OR 5, INCREASING 6 AT TIMES. MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN AT
TIMES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN SOUTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 EXCEPT IN FAR SOUTHWEST,
OTHERWISE CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, INCREASING GALE 8 TO STORM 10
FOR A TIME, OCCASIONALLY VIOLENT STORM 11 LATER IN FAR
SOUTHEAST. MODERATE OR ROUGH, BECOMING VERY ROUGH OR HIGH
IN FAR SOUTH, OCCASIONALLY VERY HIGH LATER IN SOUTHEAST.
FOG PATCHES AT FIRST IN FAR SOUTH, OTHERWISE RAIN AT
TIMES. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR AT FIRST

WEST CENTRAL SECTION
IN SOUTH, NORTHEASTERLY BACKING NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 7 IN
FAR SOUTHEAST AT FIRST, OCCASIONALLY GALE 8, OTHERWISE
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 4 OR 5, INCREASING 6 AT TIMES,
OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE 3 OR 4 LATER. MODERATE OR ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY VERY ROUGH AT FIRST IN FAR SOUTHEAST. RAIN
AT TIMES, SHOWERS LATER IN FAR WEST. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN NORTH, CYCLONIC 5 OR 6, BECOMING VARIABLE 3 OR 4.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD

DENMARK STRAIT
IN NORTH, NORTHERLY 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES. SLIGHT
OR MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH IN FAR SOUTH. SLEET OR SNOW
AT TIMES. MODERATE OR POOR, OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR.
IN SOUTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT TIMES NEAR GRENLAND COAST,
OTHERWISE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 6 TO GALE 8,
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GALE 9 IN EAST. MODERATE AT TIMES
NEAR COAST OF GREENLAND, OTHERWISE ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH,
OCCASIONALLY HIGH LATER IN EAST. OCCASIONAL SNOW NEAR
COAST OF GREENLAND, OTHERWISE RAIN AT TIMES. MODERATE OR
GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR, BUT VERY POOR AT TIMES NEAR
COAST OF GREENLAND

NORTH ICELAND
IN NORTH, VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT TIMES IN FAR NORTHWEST,
OTHERWISE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY 4 OR 5, INCREASING 6
AT TIMES. SLIGHT OR MODERATE. SLEET OR SNOW AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY POOR.
IN SOUTH, CYCLONIC 5 TO 7, DECREASING 4 AT TIMES.
MODERATE OR ROUGH. RAIN OR SHOWERS. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR

NORWEGIAN BASIN
VARIABLE 3 OR 4 AT FIRST IN EAST, OTHERWISE SOUTHEASTERLY
5 TO 7, BECOMING CYCLONIC 6 TO GALE 8, INCREASING SEVERE
GALE 9 OR STORM 10 FOR A TIME. MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH
OR VERY ROUGH, OCCASIONALLY HIGH LATER IN FAR NORTH. RAIN
FOR A TIME, SHOWERS LATER. MODERATE OR GOOD, OCCASIONALLY
POOR

OUTLOOK FOR FOLLOWING 24 HOURS:
STORMS EXPECTED IN SOLE, SHANNON, EAST CENTRAL SECTION
AND NORWEGIAN BASIN. GALES OR SEVERE GALES EXPECTED IN
EAST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST NORTHERN SECTION, WEST
CENTRAL SECTION, DENMARK STRAIT AND NORTH ICELAND
UNSCHEDULED STORM WARNINGS ARE BROADCAST VIA SAFETYNET
AND IN
BULLETIN WONT54 EGRR AVAILABLE VIA SOME INTERNET AND
FTPMAIL
OUTLETS=

=============================================================================

Ireland/ UK/ North Atlantic: Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA 16/0300Z nr 49.2N 13.3W, moving N 38kt 969mb NHC FL – Updated 16 Oct 2017 0837z (GMT/UTC)

October 16, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA

(Ophelia= to a CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete

A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding (see details below) – NHC

⚠️ Ireland and United Kingdom BEWARE!

National Hurricane Center (FL)

NB: This map (above) uses AST Atlantic Standard Time is 5 hours behind of British Summer Time

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

…OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…49.2N 13.3W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH…70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…969 MB…28.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph
(70 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday
and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western
Norway by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day on Monday. Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

National Weather Warnings

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Ireland

Latest Update
Storm Ophelia (Ex hurricane), situated over county Galway at 1500 today, is continuing to track northeastwards. It will bring further violent and destructive winds for a time, with gusts of 120 and 150 km/h. Some flooding expected also, due to heavy thundery downpours and storm surges in coastal areas.
There is a danger to life and property.

Winds will gradually abate from the south through this evening and tonight.

Issued:

Monday 16 October 2017 16:02

Valid:

Monday 16 October 2017 16:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 01:00

Explanation of new warning levels

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

Monday 16 October 2017

AMBER WARNING of WIND

for Northern Ireland, SW Scotland, West Wales, Isle Of Man

Between 12:00 Mon 16th and 23:00 Mon 16th

Updated Mon 16th October at 09:58

A spell of very windy weather is expected today in association with ex-Ophelia. Longer journey times and cancellations are likely, as road, rail, air and ferry services may be affected as well as some bridge closures. There is a good chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. Flying debris is likely, such as tiles blown from roofs, as well as large waves around coastal districts with beach material being thrown onto coastal roads, sea fronts and properties. This leads to the potential for injuries and danger to life. This warning has been updated to extend it into parts of north and west Wales and into the extreme southwest of Scotland. The start time has been brought forward to 1200 to cater for southwest Wales but the impacts elsewhere are more likely later in the afternoon and into this evening.

Ex-Ophelia will move northwards across the west of Ireland today bringing some very strong winds to Northern Ireland along with parts of north and west Wales and the extreme southwest of Scotland. Gusts of 55-65 mph are expected widely with 80 mph gusts likely in places. A smaller area of very gusty winds is then likely to run across Northern Ireland from the west with 65-75 mph gusts possible for a short period of time in any one location. Winds are expected to peak across Northern Ireland and north and west Wales this afternoon including this evening’s busy travel period and to peak across southwest Scotland this evening.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND

for Central, Tayside & Fife Highlands & Eilean Siar North East England North West England Northern Ireland SW Scotland, Lothian Borders South West England Strathclyde Wales West Midlands Yorkshire & Humber

Between 10:00 Mon 16th and 23:55 Mon 16th October

Updated Mon 16th October at 10:33

Very strong winds are forecast to affect most western and some central parts of the UK during Monday. These strong winds are forecast in association with the northward track of ex-Ophelia across or near to the west of the British Isles. Southerly winds are most likely to gust between 55 and 65 mph across much of the warning area, especially in the west. There is also the potential for gusts of 80 mph in coastal areas, particularly on the eastern side of Northern Ireland as well as west Wales and the far southwest of Scotland. Please see separate amber warning. The very strong winds will probably extend to parts of northern England along with some southern and central parts of Scotland in the evening as winds veer more southwesterly across the whole warning area.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northwest and Northeast England.

Updated 13 October at 10:30

Valid from 00:05 on Tue 17th to 15:00 on Tue 17th

A spell of very windy weather is likely on Tuesday in association with ex-Ophelia. Road, rail, air and ferry services might be affected, with a slight chance of longer journeys times and some roads and bridges could close. There is a slight chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. This warning has been updated to bring forward the end time slightly. The northward extent of the warning area across Scotland has been reduced but it has been extended slightly further south across Yorkshire.

00_ukmet_boden002

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 16 Oct, 2017 3:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Hurricane OPHELIA is currently located near 49.2 N 13.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). OPHELIA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. OPHELIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Scotland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Wales
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

OPHELIA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 21 hours lead from 15/0300 UTC

Other

Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Category 1 Hurricane Ophelia: a Rare and Damaging Storm for Ireland (link)

Channel Islands Doppler Radar

SOURCE: https://www.gov.je/weather/Pages/Radar.aspx

Windy dot com – Interactive, zoomable near real-time wind map (link)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 160251
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN… AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 70NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT…….150NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 400SE 660SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 13.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 60SE 70SW 30NW.
50 KT… 80NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.
34 KT…200NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT…110NE 140SE 140SW 120NW.
34 KT…220NE 290SE 290SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 61.9N .1W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…200NE 270SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.2N 13.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE…UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

=============================================================================

METAREA1 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0759
WONT54 EGRR 160759
SECURITE

STORM WARNING
AT 160000UTC, LOW 48 NORTH 14 WEST 963 EXPECTED 57 NORTH
07 WEST 980 BY 170000UTC. HURRICANE FORCE 12 WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE BETWEEN 150 AND
200 MILES OF THE CENTRE UNTIL 161000UTC AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE
11 AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 300
MILES OF THE CENTRE UNTIL 170200UTC. WINDS WILL ALSO
REACH STORM FORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 AT TIMES
IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 150 AND 350 MILES OF THE
CENTRE UNTIL 161700UTC. LOW 54 NORTH 35 WEST 993 EXPECTED
61 NORTH 36 WEST 985 BY SAME TIME. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE 10 IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT BETWEEN 150 AND 200 MILES OF THE CENTRE FROM
170700UTC

UKMET HIGH SEAS FORECAST: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast_and_sea/high_seas#area-6

Coastal Forecast

Tide Tables

Inshore Waters

Shipping Forecast

=============================================================================

UK: Storm Aileen to bring very strong winds across much of England and Wales during Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning – Published 12 Sep 2017 1425z (GMT/UTC)

September 12, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

windy 1825 BST

Image above: Windy.com – Near real-time interative wind map (Link)

Storm Aileen is the first storm to be named since this seasons names were released last week and it will bring strong winds to central parts of the UK.

A deepening area of low pressure will bring very strong winds across much of England and Wales during Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. An Amber National Severe Weather Warning is in place, warning of gusts of 55-65 mph in particular across parts of Cheshire, Lancashire, Derbyshire, Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire. Gusts up to around 75mph gusts could also be possible in exposed locations such as the coast and hills in these areas.

A Yellow weather warning for rain is also in place for parts of Northern Ireland, Northern England and Southern Scotland which warns of 30-40mm of rain falling within 6-9 hours which could cause some disruption.

Chief forecaster Frank Saunders said: “Storm Aileen is expected to bring strong winds of up to 75mph to a central segment of the UK and an Amber weather warning has been issued. As well as the strong winds, there will be some heavy rain pushing eastwards overnight which could see accumulations of 30-40mm. The low pressure system that is bringing these strong winds will move fairly swiftly from west to east over the UK and although there will still be some disruption through Wednesday morning, the winds will ease by the afternoon leaving a day of blustery showers.”

Richard Leonard, road safety spokesperson at Highways England, said: “We’re encouraging drivers to check the latest weather and travel conditions before setting off on journeys, with strong winds expected from Tuesday evening until Wednesday morning. In high winds, there’s a particular risk to lorries, caravans and motorbikes so we’d advise drivers of these vehicles to slow down and avoid using exposed sections of road if possible.”

There has been some speculation that this weather is being driven by the severe weather in the Caribbean and US. There is no such connection. Met Office Deputy Meteorologist Chris Tubbs said: “There are no links between the very strong winds we expect to see here in the UK and the hurricanes affecting the United States and the Caribbean at present. This system originated well north in the Atlantic Ocean, independent of the current Caribbean hurricanes”.

As Storm Aileen clears out eastwards into the North Sea, the UK will be left with cool showery conditions through the end of the week and into the weekend. The showers will still be blustery on Thursday with the winds easing as we get closer to the weekend. Within the showers there will be some periods of brightness although it will still feel cool across the whole of the UK with top temperatures only reaching 18-19°C

You can find out the current forecast in your area using their forecast pages and by following the Met Office on Twitter and Facebook, as well as using their mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. Source: UK Met Office

AMBER WARNING of WIND for north Wales. northern parts of The Midlands, southern parts of northern England and the northern fringes of East Anglia.

Between 00:05 Wed 13th and 06:00 Wed 13th

Storm Aileen will bring a brief spell of very strong westerly winds with gusts of 65-75 mph during the early hours of Wednesday. Longer journey times by road, rail and air are looking likely, with restrictions on roads and bridges. Damage to trees and perhaps buildings, as well as power cuts are expected. Flying debris and large coastal waves are possible, and these could lead to injuries.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for Wales, The Midlands, southern parts of northern England, southwest England and southeast England.

Between 20:00 Tue 12th and 10:00 Wed 13th

Storm Aileen is expected to bring very strong winds with gusts of 50-60 mph on Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. The worst of the winds, with gusts to 65-75 mph, are expected to be across North Wales, southern parts of Northern England, the North Midlands and Norfolk, for which area a separate Amber warning is being issued. Longer journey times by road, rail and air are likely, with restrictions on roads and bridges. There is also a chance of power cuts, and damage to trees and perhaps buildings. Along windward-facing coasts, some wave overtopping is possible.

YELLOW WARNING of RAIN for southern parts of Northern Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England.

Between 17:00 Tue 12th and 08:00 Wed 13th

Heavy rain is expected later on Tuesday and early on Wednesday. This may cause flooding on the transport network, with spray and difficult driving conditions due to the combination of rain and wind. There is also a small chance of flooding affecting homes and businesses. Note also the possibility of strong winds in the south of the area – please see separate warnings.

=============================================================================

UK: Five fishermen and two RNLI lifeboat crew were saved from the sea after a dramatic rescue off Shetland – Published 04 Mar 2017 1240z (GMT/UTC)

March 4, 2017 by Goaty's News UK

Five fishermen and two RNLI lifeboat crew were saved from the sea after a dramatic rescue when their trawler sank in bad weather.

(Image: RNLI)

The seven had to jump into the water just before the ship sank off Shetland as the sea was too rough to bring a lifeboat alongside. The alarm was raised at about 6.50am yesterday when the Lerwick-registered Ocean Way began taking on water. Lerwick RNLI lifeboat and the Coastguard search and rescue helicopter from Sumburgh both rushed to the scene. Two RNLI crew, one of whom often crews on Skerries-based Ocean Way, were transferred to the trawler with a salvage pump. But the skipper decided the trawler could not be saved. The five crew and two RNLI volunteers jumped into the water minutes before the trawler sank at 8.20am. They were picked up by the lifeboat, crewed by eight volunteers, and taken back to Lerwick. A Norwegian fish carrier, the Gerda Saele, had put a pump on board while the helicopter began winching a third pump on board, but Ocean Way’s skipper decided to abandon ship. The trawler crew were all wearing life jackets and had an Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacon on board, pinpointing their position. Rescuers praised them for having the correct equipment. Lifeboat coxswain Alan Tarby said: “While the third pump was being winched on board the skipper decided to abandon ship and within minutes of him making that decision they got off and it sank, so it was a good call. “The rescue was made much easier because the Ocean Way’s crew were all wearing the correct safety equipment and had undergone safety training. “It was a good outcome even although the vessel was lost, all the crew were unharmed. The lifeboat crew performed very well, especially the two men who were in the water with the fishermen.” The fishermen were checked over by medics in Lerwick but did not need treatment. Mark Rodaway, commander for the UK Coastguard, said: “This was a difficult rescue in awful weather. In the conditions, the lifeboat had a difficult time trying to safely get alongside. “But I’m delighted to say that all five fishermen are safe and well and the fact they were all wearing life jackets ensured that they had the best chance of survival.”

RSOE March 04 2017 11:19 AM (UTC).

More here (inc video): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-39151952

Angus the first named storm of autumn 2016 — Official blog of the Met Office news team

November 19, 2016 by Goaty's News UK

The Met Office has announced the first named storm of autumn 2016: Storm Angus. Storm Angus is expected to sweep through south-eastern England bringing some very strong south-westerly winds and heavy rain to affected parts through Sunday morning. Looking at the development of the low-pressure system, on Friday morning the Met Office issued a Yellow […]

via Angus the first named storm of autumn 2016 — Official blog of the Met Office news team

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 16 Nov 2015 2330z (GMT/UTC)

November 16, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

==UK==

STORM BARNEY

SKYWARN

Severe Weather Alert #54 issued (See below)

Met Office Severe Weather Warnings:

Met Office Weather Warnings for mobile

Highlands & Eilean Siar

Strathclyde

London & South East England

East Midlands

North West England

South West England

Yorkshire & Humber

Orkney & Shetland

East of England

Wales

West Midlands

North East England

(For details follow above links)

20 Flood Warnings in England and Wales – 6 in Scotland

at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

29 Flood Alerts in England and Wales – 5 in Scotland

at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

( Check for interim updates in comments at bottom of page)

Severe Weather Warnings for Europe are now toward the bottom of the page

UK Visible Satellite (meteocentre.com)

UK Infra Red Satellite (meteocentre.com)

Weather Radar Europe (meteox.co.uk)

Channel Islands (Jersey) Weather Radar Latest Animation

Jersey Radar also covers much of South/South West of England & N France

CI weather warnings

SkyWarn UK’s mission is to forecast, report, and record severe weather.

SKYWARN UK CURRENT ALERT (Link)

Severe Weather Alert #54
SWUK has issued a Severe Weather Alert for strong winds in excess of 70mph
Valid from 1300hrs Tuesday 17th November to 0300hrs Wednesday 18th November.
for
South and South Western England & Wales
An easterly moving low pressure system (officially named ‘Barney’ by the MetO) will track across southern UK on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wind gusts could exceed SWUK criteria of 70mph along exposed coasts on the southern flank of the low.
Wales and the Bristol Channel could see gusts of 80mph
Spotters in the alert area are requested to report any breaches of SWUK criteria in the normal manner.

For details on SkyWarn UK’s alert criteria, click HERE.

The Tornado & Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)

The latest Severe Weather Reports from TORRO can be found by following this link:

SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST

Report Severe Weather

Torro on Facebook

Latest news reports (see bottom of page)

Weather

Monday

151116

Tuesday

151117

Wednesday

151118

UK Warnings

Warnings

Monday 16 November Published at 16:54

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for NORTHWEST SCOTLAND

Issued at 10:35 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 11:00 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid until 23:55 on Mon 16 Nov

Southwesterly winds will increase during Monday, when severe gales will affect parts of the northwest mainland of Scotland, the Western Isles and Northern Isles. The strongest winds will initially develop across the Western Isles and northwest coast this afternoon before extending into the Northern Isles during the evening. Winds will quickly ease on Tuesday.

Gusts of wind of 65-75 mph are expected in places, so be aware that there may be some further disruption to travel. Additionally, large waves may cause some overtopping of sea defences.

This an update to the warning issued on Sunday morning.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 10:23 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 10:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Tue 17 Nov

Further rain is expected on Tuesday as a frontal system runs across the UK from the west. The largest accumulations are expected across the hills of northwest England and northwest Wales though low lying areas will also see a period of heavy rain. On the southern side of this system some very strong winds are expected and a separate warning for winds is likely to be issued.

The public should be aware that, given the already saturated conditions, flooding is possible either from standing water or from rivers already swollen by recent rainfall. This could lead to disruption to travel and perhaps localised flooding to properties.

This is a further update to the warning originally issued on Friday, reducing the northern extent of the warning and moving into minor impacts.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for much of WALES and SOUTHERN ENGLAND

Issued at 10:46 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 15:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:30 on Tue 17 Nov

West to southwesterly gales and locally severe gales are likely to sweep eastwards across parts of Wales, southern, central and eastern England later on Tuesday. Gusts could reach 60-70 mph inland and possibly 80 mph along exposed coasts, particularly Wales and through the Bristol Channel.

Be aware of the risk of disruption to travel and that gusts of this strength could bring down trees and lead to some damage to weakened structures.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW EARLY WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 12:17 on Sun 15 Nov

Valid from 16:00 on Wed 18 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Wed 18 Nov

Another spell of heavy rain, accompanied by gale force winds in places, will cross the country on Wednesday, with largest rainfall over the high ground areas already saturated from recent wet weather. Up to 50 mm is expected in the wettest spots in North Wales and NW England.

The public should be aware of the potential for further impacts such as disruption to travel and local flooding.

Further updates will appear here.

When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings

Northern Ireland: Addition information available from https://www.facebook.com/northernirelandweather?fref=ts

Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.

What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

Peter Gibbs explains sudden stratospheric warming and why it is often linked to outbreaks of cold weather: Sudden stratospheric warming

What is freezing fog?

UK RADAR AND SATELLITE

Surface Analyses & Observations UK and Europe

https://embed.windyty.com/?surface,wind,now,53.801,3.076,4,,menu,,

Animated map of global wind conditions

Zoomable version live (real-time) lightning map

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

News at bottom of page

FLOOD WARNINGS & ALERTS

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNING currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

	Flood Warning Flooding is expected. Immediate action required

There are 20 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618.aspx

There are 6 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

	Flood AlertFlooding is possible. Be prepared.

There are 29 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

There are 5 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline 0845 988 1188

Coastal Forecast

A 24 hour weather forecast for 24 UK coastal areas

Tide Tables

Tidal information supplied by the UK Hydrographic Office

Inshore Waters

There are strong wind warnings in 19 areas.

There is a gale warning in 1 area.

The next few days will be dominated by severeal areas of low pressure tracking across the British Isles bringing strong winds, large waves and changeable weather to all parts.

Shipping Forecast

There are gale warnings in 29 areas.

The general synopsis at midday

Low Bailey 964 expected Norwegian Basin 973 by midday tomorrow. New low expected Shannon 983 by same time.

Extended Outlook

The Extended Outlook aims to signpost expected hazards for the Cullercoats, Niton and Portpatrick areas for the three days beyond the 24 hour shipping forecast.

High Seas

There are storm warnings in 8 areas.

The general synopsis at 16 November 20:00 UTC

At 161200UTC low 60 north 13 west 964 expected 63 north 02 east 973 by 171200UTC. Low 48 north 39 west 987 expected 53 north 12 west 983 by same time. Low 50 north 20 west 998 losing its identity by that time. New low moving slowly east expected 53 north 32 west 988 by 171200UTC

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/maps/britisles/mappage.htm

Avalanche Information for the Scottish Mountains (SAIS)

Avalanche Information Service publish the daily forecasts of the avalanche, snow, and mountain conditions at the 5 most popular areas of Scotland during the season.

Latest Forecasts:

Report an avalanche now

Mountain Weather Information Service

MWIS currently produce forecasts for 8 different mountain areas of the UK as an aid to mountain safety.

Forecasts are produced manually using information from a range of forecast models and forecasters knowledge of mountain weather. New forecasts, for the next three days are produced by 4:30pm daily, normally earlier in the winter, and amended as necessary.

http://www.mwis.org.uk/

===============================================

News Reports

Storm Barney to hit UK with winds of up to 80mph

Waves whipped up by high winds hit Blackpool's North Pier as Britain's first ever named storm, Storm Abigail, hits the North West on November 9

Winds of up to 80mph look set to hit parts of the UK as the second storm to be named by the public – Storm Barney – sweeps in this week.

Yellow “be aware” warnings for wind have been issued for Wales, along with southern, central and eastern England on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

It comes as heavy rain brought flooding to parts of England and Wales.

Rivers burst their banks in Cumbria over the weekend with roads, farmland and train services affected.

In mid and north Wales, train services have been disrupted due to flooding.

Low pressure

The Met Office said gusts could reach 70mph inland and up to 80mph along exposed coastal areas, particularly in Wales and through the Bristol Channel, on Tuesday.

Forecasters said the unsettled weather was the result of a series of low pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic.

North-west Scotland, meanwhile, could see severe gales on Monday, with warnings of gusts of up to 75mph.

The Met Office said in Scotland the strongest winds would initially develop across the Western Isles and north-west coast before extending into the Northern Isles during the evening and easing on Tuesday.

More flooding and disruption could be caused when heavy rain falls on already saturated ground in the next few days, the Met Office also warned.

Up-to-date information on weather warnings and a live flood warning map can be found on the BBC website

The Environment Agency said the overall flood risk remained low and the number of flood warnings was decreasing – but gale-force winds were expected to produce large waves which could top coastal defences, and river levels will remain high over the next week.

Craig Woolhouse, of the EA, urged people to remain alert to the risk and “stay away from raging rivers”.

“With so much standing water around, we ask people to stay out of flood water and not attempt to walk or drive through it,” he added.

Widespread damage

Barney is the second storm considered strong enough to be given a name under a new “name our storms” campaign between the Met Office and Met Eireann.

Storm Abigail caused widespread damage last week, leaving more than 20,000 homes without power and forcing schools to close in Shetland and the Western Isles.

The Highlands and Islands were worst hit by gusts of 84mph, while the rest of the UK experienced thundery showers, gales and flooding

Forecasters say there is due to be a change in the weather at the end of the week, with colder air spreading from the north and bringing wintry showers to northern parts of the UK, particularly over the hills.

Monday 16 November Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Turning colder at times – and not so wet

Wet, windy and unusually mild sums up the first half of November for most parts of the UK, although as often happens with these spells of disturbed south-westerly winds the south east of England has escaped with much less rain than elsewhere. The last week has featured both Abigail and Kate – Abigail being the first winter storm in the new Met Office naming scheme, which brought severe gales to N and NW Scotland. Meanwhile the warmth and moisture which were the remnants of Hurricane Kate, swept across the Atlantic and contributed to the worst of this month’s rainfall over the weekend. Parts of Cumbria saw over 200 mm of rain over that period, and so far this month Capel Curig in Snowdonia has received more than 330 mm of rain.

Monday 16 November—Sunday 22 November

More rain and strong winds – colder by the weekend

For most of the week, the spell of very unsettled weather will continue unabated. Severe gales will affect NW Scotland on Monday while most places have a cooler day of sunshine and showers. Further bursts of rain, heavy in places, will spread across England, Wales and Northern Ireland on Monday night and on Tuesday. There will be gales for a time in the south, while Scotland remains in cooler, showery weather. Yet another low pressure system will sweep in on Wednesday, this one dumping most of its rain over Scotland and Northern Ireland, but also threatening N Wales and NW England again. Thursday and Friday will be brighter but windy with showers, and by Friday much colder air will be moving into northern Scotland with showers there turning to snow. The week ends with this much colder air extending south to all parts on Saturday, with a scattering of wintry showers and some sunshine in many areas, so giving a completely different feel to the weekend just gone.

Monday 23 November—Sunday 29 November

Cold start but will it last long?

The last week of November will begin with cold air over the whole country and with sleet or snow showers in some parts – chiefly over Scotland.There will be sunshine by day and frost is likely overnight. Cloudy, milder weather with some rain is expected to return by Tuesday or Wednesday. Beyond that, there could well be a swing back to brighter, showery weather with northerly winds again. But this return to colder weather is also set to be short-lived as we look to the Atlantic for another change.

Monday 30 November—Sunday 13 December

Typical early winter variability

After the likelihood of a couple of settled days around the turn of the month, a return to unsettled weather is expected in the first week of December, with a mixture of rain and showers. With sometimes large fluctuations in temperature forecast, some snow can be expected over high ground at least – particularly in Scotland. The north will have strong winds at times, with gales likely in the northwest. The south is likely to turn more settled again for a while, allowing overnight frost and fog in any calmer periods. For the fortnight as a whole, temperatures are expected to average out around the normal, but the north may be on the cold side.

Next week

Is there any hint of a prolonged mild or cold spell for December?

Monthly forecasting

The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

Next update at 10:00, Monday 23 November

Monthly Outlook

End

Europe Severe Weather Warnings

White:
Missing, insufficient, outdated or suspicious data.Green:
No particular awareness of the weather is required.Yellow:
The weather is potentially dangerous. The weather phenomena that have been forecast are not unusual, but be attentive if you intend to practice activities exposed to meteorological risks. Keep informed about the expected meteorological conditions and do not take any avoidable risk.Orange:
The weather is dangerous. Unusual meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Damage and casualties are likely to happen. Be very vigilant and keep regularly informed about the detailed expected meteorological conditions. Be aware of the risks that might be unavoidable. Follow any advice given by your authorities.Red:
The weather is very dangerous. Exceptionally intense meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Major damage and accidents are likely, in many cases with threat to life and limb, over a wide area. Keep frequently informed about detailed expected meteorological conditions and risks. Follow orders and any advice given by your authorities under all circumstances, be prepared for extraordinary measures.

European Storm Forecast Experiment

The European Storm Forecast Experiment is an initiative of a team of European meteorologists, and students in meteorology, and serves as a platform for exchange of knowledge about forecasting severe convective storms in Europe and elsewhere.

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 Nov 2015 06:00 to Wed 18 Nov 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Nov 2015 22:35
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

A level 2 was issued for the Benelux countries, a large part of Germany, the NW Czech Republic and W Poland mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for and area surrounding the level 1, including S Ireland, the S United Kingdom, larger parts of Poland and the Czech Republic, all of Germany and parts of Denmark, France, Switzerland, and Austria, mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

See more (click here)

Estofex b

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 16 Nov 2015 06:00 to Tue 17 Nov 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 15 Nov 2015 23:06
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for southern Ireland mainly for chances of a tornado and severe wind gusts.

See more (click here)

Satellite: Europe

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Europe: Very dangerous weather – ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: LEVEL 3! for parts of POLAND and W BELARUS Damaging wind gusts, large and very hail, excessive precipitation and SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENT. – Published 190715 1216z

July 19, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 19 Jul 2015 06:00 to Mon 20 Jul 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 19 Jul 2015 00:01
Forecaster: TASZAREK

A level 3 was issued for parts of Poland and W Belarus mainly for the damaging wind gusts, large and very hail, excessive precipitation and significant tornado event.

A level 2 was issued for parts of Germany, Poland, Belarus, NW Ukraine and N Czech Republic mainly for the severe wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of S Finland and parts of Russia mainly for the large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of UK, Netherlands, S Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, N Italy, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, W Hungary, Belarus and NW Ukraine mainly for the large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for NE Spain mainly for the large hail and excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

Most of the Central, SW, S and SE Europe is covered with highly unstable warm and moist tropical air mass with dew points up to 20C. A ridge extending from Azores up to Iberian Peninsula inhibits convection in this region. Strong capping inversions are also present in the Apennine and most of the Balkan Peninsula. Weakening high is places over Black Sea while the numerous troughs are located over British Isles, Scandinavia and N Russia. Jet streak separating polar and tropical air mass is stretching from the N Atlantic trough England, N Germany and Poland up to Russia. Within this jet, a short-wave with thermal low is predicted to provide a good overlap of instability, moisture, lift and wind shear over parts of Germany, Poland and Belarus.

DISCUSSION

…Germany, Poland, Belarus, NW Ukraine…

Particularly severe weather is expected in the afternoon hours within the shortwave that will pass these countries in the forecast period and provide the great source of lifting mechanism. An overlap of SB CAPE exceeding 1000-2000 J/kg and DLS over 20-25 m/s in the large area extending from central Germany up to Poland is expected to produce widespread severe weather. Around noon, convection should start over Germany and most likely in the form of the supercell thunderstorms produce damaging wind gusts and large to very large hail. An increased 0-1km SRH over 100 m2/s2 and LLS exceeding 10 m/s cannot rule out tornado occurrence within these cells. In the afternoon hours CI should also take place in W Poland. Since these cells will form in the highly unstable (1500-2000 J/kg) and strongly sheared environment (DLS ~ 25 m/s, MLS ~ 20 m/s, LLS ~ 15 m/s, 0-3km SRH up to 300 m2/s2) with the support of the QG lift, an organized squall line is likely to form. It is likely that such a squall line will contain bow echos and the wind gusts within these may exceed 33 m/s. The transformation into derecho cannot be ruled out. Level 3 denote the area where according to the current understanding and NWP data the movement of this line is the most probable. However, models are not consistent with the direction of the MCS movement, some of them predicts propagation of the squall line to the Belarus, while some of them shifts the system more to the warm air mass. It is possible that an early-hours convection that will pass through N Poland may provide conditions more conducive for MCS turning more to the S. Due to these uncertainties, both scenarios are partially included in the level 3 area. Although the main threat are damaging wind gusts, conditions in the late afternoon hours (when the relative humidity will drop and thus the LCL) will be conducive for tornadoes, especially in the E Poland. An impressive overlap of 0-1km SRH ~ 400 m2/s2 with LLS ~ 12.5 m/s and CAPE ~ 1000 J/kg may result in a significant tornado event if isolated or embedded supercells will be present. These may be possible in the southern flank of the squall line. Within these storms very large hail is also possible. It is predicted that the MCS will enter Belarus and parts of Ukraine in the late evening hours and weaken, but still will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. If derecho will form, the system may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts also in the late evening hours, therefore level 3 is also extended to the parts of Belarus further east. Extreme values of PW (40-45 mm) may also result in a large precipitation amounts on the track of the MCS.

…parts of UK, Denmark, Netherlands, N Germany, Baltic Sea…

Although models predicts very large DLS over these areas (25-30 m/s) they are not as consistent with thermodynamic instability. Thunderstorms that will form within the short-wave may become supercells and create threat for the large hail and severe wind gusts. However, due to limited thermodynamic instability, limited boundary layers moisture content and rather low-topped convection, such a threat deserves only level 1.

…Germany, Switzerland, N Italy, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, W Hungary, Belarus and NW Ukraine…

Locally enhanced DLS up to 15 m/s with CAPE up to 2000-2500 J/kg and rich boundary layer’s moisture (mixing ratio up to 12-13 g/kg) create threat for multicell and supercell thunderstorms where severe wind gusts and large hail are likely. DMC is forecast to start around noon and the storms should weaken in the late evening hours. In the areas where the storm motion is predicted to be very low (DLS below 10 m/s) excessive precipitation and local flash flooding cannot be ruled out, especially in the NW parts of the Italy.

…S Finland, parts of Russia…

Favorable overlap of DLS around 20 m/s and CAPE up to 400-600 J/kg create threat for supercell thunderstorms and thus severe wind gusts and large hail. Uncertainty related to CI, low thermodynamic instability, limited boundary layer’s moisture content and narrow zone where the CAPE overlaps with the favorable shear makes the threat marginal. The highest threat for the occurrence of severe weather falls on the early afternoon hours.

…NE Spain…

Low-level inflow of impressive rich boundary layer’s moisture content (mixing ratios up to 16-18 g/kg) overlapping with steep lapse rates (~ 7 C/km) locally will enhance CAPE values to 2000-2500 J/kg. If thunderstorms will be able to get through the cap, they may be capable of producing large hail. Since the storm motion in this area is predicted to be very low, given the high moisture content excessive precipitation cannot be ruled out.

END

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 19 Jul 2015 11:00 to Sun 19 Jul 2015 14:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 19 Jul 2015 11:51
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

At 11 UTC a warm front was located along a line from near Leipzig to Poznan to Warsaw. An MCS / area of convective rain over NE Germany has created an outflow boundary that stretches from Berlin to Leipzig.

Along the warm front distinct surface convergence is taking place and low-level humidity is rather high with 18-21 C observed dew points. With 26-30 C surface temperatures, around 1000 – 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should already be in place.

The Bayreuth, Lindenberg and Doksany profilers and Poznan radar confirm that 20-25 m/s WSW winds are in place at 3-4 km AGL, implying that strong to very strong wind shear is present.

Storms, probably elevated have formed in the Leipzig area and further south across the Czech Republic. It is expected that these storms will move eastward and become surface based. It is possible that storms will rather rapidly develop into a squall-line and that the wind risk will increase rather quickly.

In addition, more storms may form further to the east along the warm front after 13 UTC. Any isolated storms that manage to form will quickly turn into powerful supercells with a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts.

The high (about 300 m2/s2) SREH and anticipated strengthening low-level shear that is in place along and slightly to the north of the warm front suggests that tornadoes cannot be ruled out. However, in most places, the LCL height is rather high for tornadoes with T/Td spreads around 10 C, limiting this risk. An exception is a small area along the warm front where prior rainfall occurrs before the arrival of storms, cooling and moistening the boundary layer.

END

Disasters Emergency Committee (@decappeal) Appeal for Nepal Earthquake – Deaths reach over 4,000, thousands injured & homeless

April 27, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

A special programme as rescue teams continue to search for those buried in the rubble.
If video not playing go here: http://news.sky.com/video/1473149/nepal-earthquake-special-report

Please give as much as you can, here: http://www.dec.org.uk/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social%20media&utm_campaign=A017&utm_content=TweetsNepal/

UK: 5 fishermen rescued off the Hebredies after their boat Iuda Naofa sank – Published 200115 1815z (GMT/UTC)

January 20, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

The Coastguard was notified of a fishing vessel in distress just before 11am this morning. The Iuda Naofa, a 23m Irish fishing vessel, was taking on water 48 miles north of the Butt of Lewis.

The Coastguard Rescue helicopter was requested to attend the scene and drop a salvage pump onto the Iuda Naofa to pump off the ingress of water. However, the vessel became swamped and started to sink.

The Coastguard Rescue helicopter airlifted two of the crew onto the nearby sister fishing vessel, the Star of Hope. The other three crew were transferred by helicopter to the Western Isles hospital, where they are being treated for mild hypothermia.

Coastguard Duty Watch Manager, Paul Tunstall said

“The weather conditions on scene were very rough seas with southerly force 6 winds, evacuating the five crew swiftly and safely before the vessel went down was a great achievement.” –Maritime and Coastguard Agency

“Malin Head Coast Guard assisted in the saving of 5 fishermen off the Hebredies this afternoon. At about 1030 this morning Malin picked up a call for help on medium frequency 2182Khz for the Iuda Naofa taking water. Details taken and passed to MRCC Stornaway who sent out a helicopter. The boat sank. 3 crew airlifted and 2 taken onboard another boat Star of Hope. Only for the Listening watch the IRCG continue to hold on 2182Khz this could have easily ended with loss of life. This is the second 2182 call that Malin has dealt with in recent months both of which resulted in lives been saved. Well done lads.” –Irish Coast Guard

News Reports

20 January 2015 Last updated at 17:28

Five rescued after fishing boat sinks off Isle of Lewis

Five people were airlifted from the Irish vessel Iuda Naofa when it began to sink

Five crewmen have been rescued after a fishing boat started to sink off the Isle of Lewis.

The Irish vessel Iuda Naofa got into difficulty at about 11:00 when it started taking on water about 48 miles (77km) off the Butt of Lewis.

Stornoway Coastguard helicopter dropped a salvage pump to the crew, but the boat became swamped and started to sink.

Two crewmen were then airlifted to another boat and three to hospital.

The three have been treated at Western Isles Hospital for hypothermia.

The fishing boat has sunk.

Coastguard duty watch manager Paul Tunstall said: “The weather conditions on scene were very rough seas with southerly force 6 winds, evacuating the five crew swiftly and safely before the vessel went down was a great achievement.”

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 27 Dec 2014 1433z (GMT/UTC)

December 27, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Updated here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-08-jan-2015-1203z-gmtutc/

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 11 Dec 2014 1343z (GMT/UTC)

December 11, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Updated here: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-26-dec-2014-0830z-gmtutc/

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 27 Oct 2014 1422z (GMT/UTC)

October 26, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Updated here: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/11/21/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-21-nov-2014-1217z-gmtutc/

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 20 Aug 2014 1930z (GMT/UTC)

October 18, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Updated here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/10/26/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-26-oct-2014-0751z-gmtutc/

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 25 Aug 2014 1717z (GMT/UTC)

August 25, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Updated here

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-3th

UK: RNLI lifeguards at Polzeath rescued 32 people last night after they extended their patrol hours – Published 120814 1752z (GMT/UTC)

August 12, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

RNLI Lifeguards carry out rescues at Polzeath (Credit: RNLI)

RNLI lifeguards at Polzeath rescued 32 people last night after they extended their patrol hours.

With a large number of people in the water and difficult conditions on the high spring tide, the lifeguard team stayed on past their normal finishing time of 6pm to ensure everybody was safe.

The lifeguard team, made up of Ben Miskowicz, Chris Rowlands, Phil Bartlett, Scott Temple, Christian Parker and Craig O’Rourke, were patrolling the beach yesterday (Monday 11 August) and when 6pm approached they realised the conditions were too dangerous to finish their lifeguard duties.

The team stayed on and rescued a total of 32 people, including seven swimmers and 25 bodyboarders, many of them children. They eventually packed down the beach at 7.30pm, an hour and a half after their normal operational finishing time.

Senior lifeguard Ben Miskowicz explains: ‘The conditions at Polzeath this week are particularly challenging, we have a high tide, strong onshore winds and large swell. The winter storms have changed the typography of Polzeath and now at high tide we have some rip currents at both the northern and southern end of the beach. The northern rip is particularly prominent at high tide at the moment and between 6pm and 7.15pm last night the lifeguards assisted 32 people who’d fallen off the bank of sand and straight into the path of the rip current.

‘I was at the cliff top unit at the south end of the beach and Chris was at the northern end while Craig, Phil and Christian were in the water on rescue boards. As we had a higher view we were able to spot casualties and guide the lifeguards in the water to them. I could see how strong the rip was, when the lifeguards stopped paddling on the rescue board they were pulled away very quickly, it was incredibly strong.’

Today is the highest tide of the year, with high tide at Polzeath at 7.15pm, so lifeguards are urging people to take extra care in the conditions.

Chris Wafer, RNLI lifeguard supervisor, said: ‘The lifeguard team did a fantastic job last night in challenging conditions and received praise from many members of the public for their efforts in keeping people safe.

‘We’ve seen strong onshore winds and a big swell combined with spring tides in recent days which have created these difficult conditions. With another large tide tonight it’s possible the lifeguard team may stay on later again to ensure everybody is safe. If you are heading to the beach please speak to the lifeguards to find out the hazards and take heed of their advice.’

To help keep children safe in the sea this summer, the RNLI has partnered with the ASA to offer Swim Safe. Providing free open-water swimming improver lessons to children aged between 7-14, the programme is running at Bude throughout the summer. For more information go to http://www.swimming.org/go/parents/swim-safe/

– RNLI

Date:
12/08/2014
Author: Emma Haines

The RNLI added in a Facebook post:

“32 people were rescued at Polzeath beach in Cornwall last night – after lifeguards extended their patrol hours. With their 6pm finish time approaching, and a large number of people still in the water and a high spring tide, the team realised the conditions were too dangerous for them to leave their post. When people began to get caught in the path of a rip current, the lifeguards were able to leap into action. This week sees some of the highest tides of the year, so if you’re visiting the coast, remember to ‪#‎RespectTheWater‬ and visit a lifeguarded beach where possible. ”

Key facts about the RNLI

The Royal National Lifeboat Institution is the charity that saves lives at sea. Our volunteers provide a 24-hour search and rescue service in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland from 236 lifeboat stations, including four along the River Thames and inland lifeboat stations at Loch Ness, Lough Derg, Enniskillen and Lough Ree. Additionally the RNLI has more than 1,000 lifeguards on over 180 beaches around the UK and operates a specialist flood rescue team, which can respond anywhere across the UK and Ireland when inland flooding puts lives at risk.

The RNLI relies on public donations and legacies to maintain its rescue service. As a charity it is separate from, but works alongside, government-controlled and funded coastguard services. Since the RNLI was founded in 1824 our lifeboat crews and lifeguards have saved at least 140,000 lives. Volunteers make up 95% of the charity, including 4,600 volunteer lifeboat crew members and 3,000 volunteer shore crew. Additionally, tens of thousands of other dedicated volunteers raise funds and awareness, give safety advice, and help in our museums, shops and offices.

Learn more about the RNLI

For more information please visit the RNLI website or Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. News releases, videos and photos are available on the News Centre.

Contacting the RNLI – public enquiries

Members of the public may contact the RNLI on 0300 300 9990 or by email.

The RNLI is a charity registered in England and Wales (209603) and Scotland (SC037736). Charity number CHY 2678 in the Republic of Ireland

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 10 Aug 2014 1950z (GMT/UTC)

August 10, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Updated here: http://wp.me/p2k2mU-3ao

UK: Ex Bertha bringing wet and windy weather on Sunday, says Met Office – Published 080814 1719z (GMT)

August 8, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

#UK #SEVERE #WEATHER, #FLOOD WARNINGS and #TORRO #TORNADO WATCH. #Bertha #UKstorm #FloodAware #Wx #News… http://t.co/fIcYIK4jr5

— Goaty’s News (UK) (@Goatys_News) August 9, 2014

8 August 2014 – The remnants of Hurricane Bertha will continue to track towards the UK during the next few days.

“The Met Office has been assessing the likelihood of the UK seeing any effects from Bertha by using our own forecast models alongside models from other world-leading forecast centres.

At the moment southern parts of the UK look as though they are most at risk during Sunday, followed by areas of northeast Scotland on Monday. However, there is also the possibility that the depression could move across northern France as a weak feature.

Possible storm tracks for ex Bertha on Sunday Likely impacts from ex Bertha on Sunday

The transition of Bertha from a tropical to an extra-tropical feature is a particularly hard one to forecast but there is increasing confidence that this feature will affect the UK on Sunday, though with very large uncertainty remaining over the track and intensity.

Chief Meteorologist, Paul Gundersen, said: “There is still some uncertainty surrounding this weekend’s weather, with the potential for heavy rainfall, strong coastal winds and large waves on Sunday. However, there is still a chance that the system may pass to the south of the country giving the UK a brighter day.

“Rain and strong winds may well bring disruption, especially across southern parts of the UK, with the potential for more than 50 mm of rain and coastal gusts of over 60 mph. People should stay up to date with the latest Met Office warnings.”

Craig Woolhouse, Environment Agency Flood Risk Manager, said: “Heavy rain on Sunday may lead to localised surface water flooding in some parts of England and Wales. On Sunday and Monday a combination of high spring tides and strong westerly winds bring a risk of large waves and spray and possible flooding to the south west coast of England and along the Severn Estuary. However, the forecast remains uncertain so we advise people to regularly check the flood risk situation over the next few days.

“If you’re travelling to or from holiday then check your flood risk before setting off and don’t drive through flood waters.

“The Environment Agency is continuing to monitor the situation closely along with the Met Office and local authorities. People can sign up to receive free flood warnings, check their flood risk and keep up to date with the latest situation on the GOV.UK website to check if you are at risk of flooding or follow @EnvAgency and #floodaware on Twitter for the latest flood updates.”

Jeremy Parr, Head of Flood Risk Management, Natural Resources Wales, said: “Our officers will be monitoring forecasts closely over the weekend as the situation in Wales becomes clearer but in the meantime we are advising people to remain alert.

“We are likely to see some very heavy rain on Sunday into Monday, and combined with strong winds and high spring tides, conditions along the coast could be dangerous. As the forecast remains unsettled, we are advising people to keep an eye on weather forecasts and check the latest flood alerts on our website.”

Ross Macloed, RNLI Coastal Safety Manager, said: “Extreme wave heights combined with high tides can make some normal coastal activities we take for granted significantly more risky; the force of surging water or breaking waves can easily knock you over and quickly drag you out of your depth and once in the water it can be difficult to get out. As little as one cubic metre of water weighs a tonne and shows that you should never underestimate how powerful the sea can be.

“If you are planning a coastal activity, our advice is to respect the water, and watch the shore from a safe distance and assess the conditions; think about the risk before deciding if you need to go closer.”

Met Office records show that there are similar examples of intense low pressure systems occurring in August, for example, the 24 August 2005 where an active storm sat off the northwest coast of Scotland bringing strong winds and heavy rain. On the 30 August 1992 a depression swung up from the southwest across the UK giving a wet and windy Bank Holiday weekend.

We will be keeping an eye on the latest outlook for the weather over the next few days and the progress of ex Bertha to keep everyone up to date with the latest information.

Last updated: 8 August 2014″ – Met Office

Met Office Weather Warnings for mobile

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Ex Bertha more likely to miss UK

August 8, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

#UK #SEVERE #WEATHER, #FLOOD WARNINGS and #TORRO #TORNADO WATCH. #Bertha #UKstorm #FloodAware #Wx #News… http://t.co/fIcYIK4jr5

— Goaty’s News (UK) (@Goatys_News) August 9, 2014

Official blog of the Met Office news team

Tropical Storm Bertha is currently off the north east coast of the US and is likely to become an ‘extra tropical storm’ on Thursday.

It’s then expected to track across the Atlantic – and while there are still a number of possible outcomes, it looks increasingly likely that the UK will miss any serious impacts from ‘ex Bertha’.

The Met Office has been assessing the likelihood of the UK seeing any effects from Bertha by using our own forecast model alongside models from other world-leading forecast centres.

Map shows likely storm track for ex Bertha by midday Sunday.

At the moment the majority of forecasts from those models suggest ex Bertha will track to the south of the UK as a relatively weak low pressure system.

In fact it’s debatable whether this is even ex Bertha, as the storm declines to such an extent as it comes across the Atlantic…

View original post 195 more words

US/Canada: Tropical Storm Bertha 051500Z near 34.8N 71.9W, moving NNE at 19 knots (NHC) – Updated 050814 1520z (UTC)

August 5, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm Bertha

…BERTHA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE….

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT…..NHC

BERTHA NOW EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD –
EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE – COULD AFFECT EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
WITH RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY – CHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 3-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000
WTNT33 KNHC 051453
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014

…BERTHA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…34.8N 71.9W
ABOUT 445 MI…715 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH…35 KM/H….AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES…205 KM
FROM THE CENTER…MAINLY TO THE EAST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

CANADA

Hurricane Track Information

Canadian Hurricane Centre symbol Legend

Tropical Depression

Hurricane

Tropical Storm

Post-Tropical Storm

An example showing a Hurricane icon with three parameters; maximum wind 120 Kilometers per hour; local time and day 15:00 Thu/jeu; and the storm name Andrea.

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

WOCN31 CWHX 051145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:00 AM ADT TUESDAY
5 AUGUST 2014.
———————————————————————
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR TROPICAL STORM BERTHA.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

BERTHA NOW EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD –
EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE – COULD AFFECT EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
WITH RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: 34.3 NORTH 72.2 WEST.

ABOUT 730 KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST AT 35 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BERTHA WILL PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUD-COVER FROM IT MOVING OVERHEAD. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT RAIN FROM THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE OF THE STORM COULD
AFFECT THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO THE AVALON
DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY INTERACT WITH THE STORM.

A. WIND.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY THURSDAY IF THE TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE PLAYS A GREATER ROLE IN THE STORM’S TRANSFORMATION.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THAN
WIND. AT THIS POINT AMOUNTS OF 25 TO 50 MILLIMETRES ARE POSSIBLE
IF THE RAIN MOVES OVER LAND. MORE INFORMATION WILL BECOME AVAILABLE
IN THIS REGARD LATER TODAY.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

THERE WILL BE SOME OCEAN SWELLS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVE
HEIGHTS NEAR 2 METRES ARE EXPECTED. NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME OCEAN SWELLS AS WELL ON THURSDAY. LARGE WAVES GIVING POUNDING
SURF MAY REACH 4 METRES FOR SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITH MUCH LARGER
WAVES EXPECTED OFFSHORE. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOUTH- AND EAST-FACING BEACHES AS THE OCEAN SWELLS ARRIVE.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EAST SCOTIAN SLOPES AND
LAURENTIAN FAN. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE
SOUTHERN MARITIMES MARINE WATERS. BERTHA WILL ALSO BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. ANTICIPATE
STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS.

VISIT weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/COUTURIER/FOGARTY
_______________________________________________
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

Technical Discussion

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 5 Aug, 2014 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BERTHA (AL03) currently located near 34.8 N 71.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Tropical Storm BERTHA: Storm-centered zoom at 117 hours lead (TSR) Updated 1511 UTC

: Tropical Storm BERTHA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 117 hours lead – TSR Updated 1511 UTC

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Atlantic

CANADA: Marine Weather Warnings

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1432

WTNT23 KNHC 051432
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 71.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….110NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 71.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.1N 69.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.8N 64.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.5N 59.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 180SE 150SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 45.0N 53.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 240SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 49.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 49.0N 22.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 51.0N 2.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 71.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1010

FZNT01 KWBC 051010
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 05
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 06
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 07

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NEAR 38.6N 66.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE…AND 180 NM SE AND 150
NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 26 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 44.1N 56.4W. WITHIN
30 NM NE AND 90 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE…180 NM SE…150 NM SW…AND 60
NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW E OF AREA 60N34W 996 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO
18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 57N27W 1000 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SW
AND 480 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
FROM 30N TO 40N BETWEEN 64W AND 73W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL BERTHA DESCRIBED IN WARNINGS
SECTION ABOVE.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 56N TO 61N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 55N TO 61N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF A LINE
FROM 62N63W TO 60N54W TO 52N50W.

.HIGH 34N34W 1024 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.HIGH 34N57W 1024 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N52W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 55N44W 1015 MB MOVING NW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N45W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N45W 1021 MB.

.HIGH 51N55W 1017 MB MOVING SE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 48N48W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 47N41W 1018 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE AUG 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED AUG 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU AUG 07.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NEAR 33.4N 72.9W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
05 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE…180 NM SW QUADRANT
AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER
FORECAST WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W S TO
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NEAR 38.6N 66.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE.
CONDITIONS N OF FORECAST AREA. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 29N
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 44.1N
56.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…60 NM NW
QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT. CONDITIONS N OF FORECAST AREA.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 48.5N
44.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 49.3N
28.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 50.3N
14.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC FROM 13.5N TO 21N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 76.5W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W TO 74W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 76W
AND 78W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 71W AND 78W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 16 July 2014 1020z

July 16, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

OUT OF DATE NOW See

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 18 July 2014 1828z (GMT/UTC)

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2Ne

UK: Public warned about the dangers of ‘tombstoning’ – Published 080714 2115z

July 8, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Police, Coastguards and councils are warning the public about the dangers of ‘tombstoning’ in Dorset.

Young thrillseekers have been putting their lives at risk by jumping into the sea from a great height – often from the top of cliffs.

There have been reports of youngsters jumping off the East pier at West Bay, narrowly missing boats coming in and out of Bridport Harbour.

Tombstoning can be dangerous for a number of reasons: water depth alters with the tide and it may be shallower than it seems, submerged objects like rocks may not be visible, the shock of cold water may make it difficult to swim and strong currents can rapidly sweep people away.

PC Scott McGregor of Bridport Police, said: “We have had several reports over the last few months, where concerns have been raised by the public about the activity of people jumping off the pier at West Bay. On one occasion colleagues attended to prevent individuals from putting themselves and boat users in the harbour at risk.”

Nic Lonsdale, Duty Watch Manager for Portland Coastguard, said: “Jumping from piers, cliffs, rocks or other structures into the sea can be very dangerous.

“What was a deep pool at lunchtime might be a shallow puddle by teatime due to tidal conditions and you do not know what other hazards might be under the surface.

“According to the Coastguard database, since 2005 there have been 20 deaths and 76 serious injuries caused by tombstoning in the UK.”

Cllr Robert Gould, Leader of West Dorset District Council, said: “Bridport has a very active harbour with boats moving in and out on a regular basis, we strongly advise people against this activity as it is both irresponsible and potentially dangerous.”

Figures from the Maritime and Coastguard Agency show that in the past five years, seven people have been badly hurt from tombstoning in Dorset.

To report a dangerous incident along the coastline, please call 999 and ask for the Coastguard. – MCA

End

Videos

(Not directly related to West Bay)

(Video credit: Kent Police)

This video aims to deter people from being seriously injured, often fatally, each year through tombstoning. The video was produced with the help of local school children and features Sonny Wells, a young man who was paralysed after jumping from a jetty in Hampshire in 2008.

(Video credit: Sunday Sun)

(Video credit: swimmer39274)

UK: London hero plunged into River Thames to save distressed man – Praised by Tower RNLI Lifeboat crew – Published 070714 1845z

July 7, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

A have-a-go hero plunged into the River Thames this morning to help a man who moments earlier had jumped from a bridge at the start of the capital’s rush hour.

London crew praise ‘good Samaritan’, Ben Corr, who entered river to save distressed man 07 July 2014 (Photo credit: Ben Corr via RNLI)

Lifeboat crew members from the Royal National Lifeboat Institution launched just after 7am today after reports from London Coastguard that a man was in the River Thames, drifting dangerously close to the base of the London Eye attraction

The lifeboat crew arrived just moments later to find that two men were in the water; one had entered the river to help another man who it is believed had deliberately jumped from the pedestrian footpath alongside Charing Cross rail bridge.

Ben Corr, a 36 year old statistician, had been running to work on the South Bank when he was flagged down by a woman. He took up the story: ‘The lady was quite shaken up – she was pointing to a man in the river and said she’d just seen him jump from the bridge. She was clutching a life ring but wanted some help in throwing it out to him.

‘I did try but he was quite far out and the ring missed him. Despite our efforts to coerce him towards it, he was just flailing in the water. At first I held back because I know the emergency services always advise the public not to enter the water in times like that, in case they get into danger as well. But after a moment I decided I had to – so I climbed down onto the foreshore, entered the river, and swam across to him.’

Ben said the man was very distressed and was pushing him away at first, but eventually agreed to take the life ring: ‘I pulled him back to the south bank wall but there was no way to get out. The woman who had stopped me explained that she had called the police and barely a minute later the lifeboat crew arrived.’

Tower lifeboat crew – consisting of helmsmen Craig Burn and Stuart Morrison, and volunteer Jenny Barnett – pulled both men aboard and returned to Tower

Tower RNLI Lifeboat crew – Pictured (left to right) are Stuart Morrison, Craig Burn, and Jenny Barrett (Credit: RNLI/James Oxley)

RNLI lifeboat station, situated beneath Waterloo Bridge. Craig said: ‘We got them as they were floating down by the base of the London Eye. There is some machinery there and we were concerned about them floating close to that, but we got to them in time.

‘We met with our ambulance service colleagues back at the station and they treated the man who had entered from the bridge. He was cold and shaken and still distressed, and was taken away by ambulance crews for further treatment.

‘Ben stayed with us for a short while and we gave him blankets and lots of tea and biscuits. Ben is right that we don’t advise people to go into the water to help people, but he assessed the situation and made a measured, very brave decision to go in. What he did was hugely commendable and we take our hat – or helmet – off to him: there is one man out there today in London who would surely have lost his life if it hadn’t been for Ben and the lifeboat crew.’

(Video credit: RNLI)

Published on Jul 7, 2014

Running along the South Bank this morning, Ben Corr was expecting a normal Monday in the office. That changed when he was alerted to a man struggling in the Thames. After trying to throw a life ring to the casualty, Ben carefully weighed up the situation & made the decision to go in and swim to the casualty. Meanwhile, Tower lifeboat crew had been alerted & were heading up river. They found both men floating near the London Eye and safety pulled them on board. We don’t advise people to carry out rescues themselves, but Ben made a very measured and selfless decision to go in – and for that we take our hat off to him – RNLI

UK: Summer Solstice 2014 – Stonehenge – Published 210614 0900z

June 21, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

SUMMER SOLISTICE 2014

Photo: Summer solstice sunrise over the Stonehenge prehistoric monument in Wiltshire, England – @ST0NEHENGE (via breakingnews.com)

AN estimated 36,000 people in the UK have seen the sun rise at Stonehenge on the longest day in the northern hemisphere, with 25 arrested, largely for drugs-related offences.

THE summer solstice has a long tradition of attracting people to monuments such as Stonehenge, where latter-day Druids gather to witness the sun rising on the longest day.

“We are pleased that the solstice celebrations at Stonehenge and Avebury have been enjoyable events for the majority of people attending,” a police spokesman said.

“There were 25 arrests at Stonehenge and two at Avebury which were mainly for drug-related offences.

“This year we estimate 36,000 people visited the stones throughout the night. There is always a small proportion of people who will try to break the law but I am satisfied that this was a successful policing operation.” – ntnews.com.au

Summer Solstice 2014: Stonehenge Druid Explains Traditions and History of Pagan Event

By Hannah Osborne

June 19, 2014 15:47 BST

“Summer solstice for Druids is an event that celebrates the cycles of the universe, with traditions dating back thousands of years.

Frank Somers, from the Amesbury and Stonehenge Druids, has been attending summer solstice at Stonehenge for more than a decade.

Speaking to IBTimes UK, he explained: “Druids believe that everything in existence is interconnected. The fundamental belief is that energy, the stuff we’re made of, our spirits, are part of a continuum that makes up the whole universe. We’re both unique individuals and part of something bigger.

“Everything in nature goes in cycle. A big part of the Druid thinking is there’s this cycle called the year, which fundamentally affects everything we do – when we can grow our food and when we have to hide away next to the fire. If you turn up at the changes between the seasons and observe that change, you can become better attuned to those cycles in yourself and you’re a part of them.”

Summer solstice is when the sun is at its highest point and the longest day of the year. Winter solstice is the opposite – marking the shortest day and the sun being at its lowest on the horizon. Both are cause for celebration, Somers said.

“Each season has its positives – winter season is about family and community, and the darkness, with the cold and the wet and the snow – it cleanses the land ready for a new season of growth. The summer is all to come. Even though the days are getting shorter the Earth’s temperature is increasing and you’ve got the whole summer culminating in harvest, which everyone is looking forward to.

“What you’re celebrating on a mystical level is that you’re looking at light at its strongest. It represents things like the triumph of the king, the power of light over darkness, and just life – life at its fullest.”

Stonehenge Druid traditions

Somers explained some of the traditions that take place among Druids on summer solstice. To begin, he said all Druids will want to be under the open sky – most will gather in small groups of family or friends, so those attending ceremonies at sites such as Stonehenge are the “tip of the iceberg”.

However, explaining the significance of the Neolithic site, he said: “Druids that gather at ancient places do it specifically so that they’re part of the continuum with the ancestors. When you do it at Stonehenge, you’re in the same place for the same reasons as people 5,000 years ago – in a place they marked out as special that they picked out to meet up and do these observances. You become part of something much bigger than we are.”

At Stonehenge there is a sunset ceremony for people who arrive on time. Following this, Druids get into a circle to process around the stones three times as a way of acknowledging the sacredness of the site and as a means of introducing themselves.

As morning approaches, Druids find a spot to set up small circles, which is then opened by one person – called casting the circle – who declares it to be a sacred gathering. They then call to the elements, starting with mother earth in the north, air in the east, fire in the south and water in the west. The elements are symbols of energy. They also call to the shining ones of legend, the fairy folk, to be present and any bright spirits including the ancestors and the great ones.”

After a speech and any announcements people want to make, the Druids turn to face the direction of the rising sun and raise their hands. A drum is beaten slowly to start before picking up speed as the sun rises.

“At the first glance of the sun people cheer. Traditionally the druids blow horns and there is then a chant, where you are raising energy and focusing it from the circle and radiate out around the world – it’s a group prayer, not high magic or anything. Sometimes we recite the Druid’s prayer. We close the circle by saying thank you to the spirits and the gods that have been present with us and say farewell to them.”

Explaining the significance and majesty of Stonehenge, he added: “When you walk inside, the stones seem enormous. It’s almost like you’re stood in a street in New York, you get this sense of them towering over you.

“We think Stonehenge is a sacred place that links the Earth, the Moon and the Sun and the seasons. It’s a place designed to draw people to it and the place would have always been there to teach people and give them a ceremony with which to celebrate what’s going on and be a part of it all – much more than just being a tourist monument.” – ibtimes

Will Self: has English Heritage ruined Stonehenge?

The summer solstice, King Arthur, the Holy Grail … Stonehenge is supposed to be a site of myths and mystery. But with timed tickets and a £27m visitor centre, does it herald a rampant commercialisation of our heritage?

The science of the summer solstice

By Paul Hastie BBC Science 20 June 2013 Last updated at 16:58

Families across Britain enjoy the longest day of the year on Friday 21 June. It is the summer solstice of 2013.

We get the most hours of daylight because of the position of the Earth in relation to the Sun.

But the solstice does not necessarily fall on the same day each year. And in some parts of the world the Sun does not set at all.

While it is the day that has the most sunlight, Britain’s weather typically does not become hotter until later in the summer.

Experts from five UK universities explain the science of the solstice.

What makes the solstice the longest day of the year?

Our planet does not spin on a vertical axis. It is titled at 23.4 degrees.

This means the amount of sunlight that reaches different regions of the Earth changes during the year as it orbits the Sun.

“Our summer solstice in the northern hemisphere is the point in the Earth’s orbit when the North Pole is most inclined towards the Sun,” says Manchester University’s Dr Tim O’Brien, Associate Director at Jodrell Bank Observatory.

“The axis is tipped 23.4 degrees towards the plane of the Earth’s orbit.

“Over the year the North Pole can be tipped towards the sun – summer in the northern hemisphere, or away from it, which is winter.”

This tilt changes the path we see the sun take across the sky.

“On the summer solstice, the sun rises at its farthest point around the eastern horizon,” adds Dr O’Brien.

“At noon the sun is as high above the horizon as it will ever get, and it sets at its farthest point around the west.

“So daylight lasts longer than on any other day in the year.”

Why doesn’t the sun set in some parts of the world?

Around the time of the summer solstice areas of Norway, Finland, Greenland, Alaska and other polar regions experience ‘midnight sun’.

In the Arctic Circle the sun does not set at all. Again it comes down to the tilt of the earth’s axis.

“The sun shines on the hemisphere of Earth that faces it,” says Coel Hellier, Professor of Astrophysics at Keele University. “Our summer solstice is the point in Earth’s orbit when the North Pole tilts most directly towards the sun.”

“The polar regions are continually illuminated and there is 24-hour daylight throughout the Arctic Circle. This is down to a latitude 23 degrees from the pole, matching the angle of Earth’s tilt.”

While the north enjoys constant daylight the opposite occurs at the South Pole.

“When the Northern hemisphere is tilted towards the sun the Southern Hemisphere is tilted away,” adds Prof Hellier. “Anyone in the Antarctic Circle would experience 24-hour darkness.”

Why is Australia’s summer solstice in December?

While June 21 is the summer solstice in Britain, for Australia and countries in the southern hemisphere this date marks the winter solstice.

“They have their summer solstice in the middle of our winter,” says Martin Hendry, Professor of Gravitational Astrophysics at Glasgow University.

“Oceans act as huge storage heaters and absorb heat all through the summer” – Dr Simon Boxall

“It comes in late December when their part of the Earth is leaning most towards the Sun.”

Seasons are determined by the 23.4 degree tilt in the Earth’s axis.

“Midway between the summer and winter solstices the axis is neither leaning directly towards, nor directly away from the Sun,” adds Prof Hendry.

“We refer to these dates as the ‘Equinoxes’ – when the Sun spends about the same amount of time above and below the horizon.

“In the northern hemisphere the spring equinox occurs around March 21 and the autumn equinox around September 21.

“This is when the length of day and the length of night are about equal everywhere on the Earth.”

Why doesn’t Britain get hotter until later in summer?

The northern hemisphere has the longest hours of sunlight around the solstice. But Britain usually sees higher temperatures in July and August.

It comes down to the way our planet retains heat.

The four seasons of the year are caused by the 23.4 degree tilt in the Earth’s axis.
The longest hours of sunlight come at the time of the June solstice for the northern hemisphere.
The seas around Britain store heat, bringing warmer temperatures later in summer.

Watch BBC Midsummer Live to learn about the natural world during the solstice

“The oceans, atmosphere and the land all receive solar radiation,” says Dr Simon Boxall, Lecturer in Oceanography at Southampton University.

“It provides over 99 per cent of the heat on the surface of Earth.

“The atmosphere and land can respond quickly to changes. If the earth was ocean free we would expect maximum temperatures closer to midsummer’s day.

“But over 70 per cent of the planet is ocean, and water takes a while to warm up and cool down.”

This effect is noticeable in Britain because we are surrounded by sea.

“The oceans act as huge storage heaters absorbing heat all through the summer,” adds Dr Boxall. “Think about how long it takes to boil a pan of water and how long it stays warm afterwards.

“The oceans around us hit their peak usually at the end of August or beginning of September.”

Why doesn’t the solstice fall on the same day each year?

The summer solstice falls on June 21 in 2013, but the exact time changes each year. And every leap year it comes on June 20.

“A year of 365 days is only how we humans have chosen to divide time into convenient chunks,” says Dr Somak Raychaudhury, Reader in Astrophysics at Birmingham University.

Changing times of the solstice

The solstice falls around six hours later each year, until a leap year when it jumps back to June 20.

2013 June 21 05:04
2014 June 21 10:51
2015 June 21 16:38
2016 June 20 22:34 – Leap year
2017 June 21 04:24
2018 June 21 10.07
2019 June 21 15:54
2020 June 20 21:44 – Leap year

Source: US Naval Observatory

“The average duration of a year is approximately 365 days five hours 48 minutes and 45 seconds.

“Even this varies by a few seconds every year, since the Earth’s motion is not just caused by the Sun’s pull of gravity.

“It is perturbed by the pull of the planets and moons in the Solar System. The relative positions of these change from year to year.”

This means the solstice occurs around six hours later every year.

To resolve the difference between our calendar year and the actual time it takes the Earth to orbit the sun, we add an extra day at the end of February every four years.

“This makes the June solstice jump back to the previous date for each leap year,” adds Dr Raychaudhury.

Midsummer celebrations have been held in Britain at the time of the solstice for thousands of years.

Ancient stone circles like Stonehenge are still the focal point for such ceremonies today.

Videos

Stonehenge Summer Solstice Sunrise 2014

(Video credit:stonehengetours)

Stonehenge Summer Solstice 2013 – Updated latest 2014

(Video credit: Breaking Australian)

Secrets of Stonehenge – Documentary

(Video credit:The Historian )

UK: RNLI Littlehampton lifeguards rescue mother and daughter being swept out to sea – Published 160614 1933z

June 16, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

RNLI lifeguards at Littlehampton today carried out their first rescue of the season when a mother and daughter where swept out to sea whilst using an inflatable.

The drama occurred this afternoon (Saturday 14 June) as temperatures soared into the twenties and hundreds of visitors flocked to the South coast’s beaches.

RNLI lifeguard Brittany Jones, working her first season with the charity at Littlehampton East beach, spotted two women – a mother and her daughter – struggling with their inflatable in a strong offshore breeze.

Noticing they were in difficulty, Brittany quickly sprung into action and paddled out to the pair on her rescue board.

Once she reached them, she was able to check they were okay, and then keep them afloat whilst lifeguards from Littlehampton West Tim Walton and Dan Seagrove Castle launched the inshore rescue boat to bring them all safely to shore.

Brittany said: ‘It was a busy day on the beach, but I spotted the two women just outside of the lifeguard zone and they looked like they were having trouble getting back to shore.

‘It’s situations like this where your training really kicks in. Thankfully, it was a happy ending, but we would advise all those visiting a beach to stay in an area where the lifeguards can see you, and if in danger, call for help immediately.’

Once they were brought ashore, the two women were checked over by the lifeguards before continuing with their day.

RNLI lifeguards will patrol the beaches at Littlehampton until 7 September.

The RNLI offers a free Beach Finder app for those heading to the coast, where users can search for their nearest lifeguarded beach, check tide times and get live weather updates. Download from your App store or visit http://bit.ly/LqSiFD for more info – RNLI

UK: London Thames pleasure boat in collision with Tower Bridge. 10 injured – Published 040614 1400z

June 4, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Tower Bridge (aerial view) � Bob Collowan, CC-BY-SA-3.0, Wikimedia Commons (Click image for more about Tower Bridge)

London lifeboat crew treat injured as Thames cruiser collides with Tower Bridge

�Lifeboat crew members from the RNLI�s Tower lifeboat station have treated a woman with a head wound after a River Thames city cruiser collided with Tower Bridge.

The lifeboat crew, based below Waterloo Bridge, were tasked by London Coastguard shortly after midday today (Wednesday) after the City Cruises vessel �Millennium Diamond� was involved in the collision.

The woman, believed to be in her 60s, is believed to have fallen down a set of steel steps, sustaining a head injury and bruises to her ribs.

The lifeboat crew were the first on scene and treated the woman�s head wound until London Ambulance Service paramedics arrived and took her away for further treatment.

Kevin Maynard, one of the four Tower RNLI lifeboat crew members on the lifeboat, explained how the drama unfolded: �We launched just after midday and when we arrived the boat had come alongside St Katherine�s Pier by Tower Bridge. We understand the woman had been standing at the top of some steel steps when the collision happened and the impact knocked her down.

�Although the original call to us was related to that one lady, while we were on scene a further nine people came forward to say they had been injured. We treated the woman by giving her oxygen and using blankets to keep her warm, as well as dressing her wound and placing her on a board to protect her spine. We looked after her until London Ambulance Service arrived to take her away for further assessment.�

The lifeboat crew consisted of helmsman Kevin Maynard as well as David Norman, Craig Burns, and volunteer life boatman Neil Withers.

The crew are currently remained on scene to assist where necessary (correct as at 1.50pm)

Tower RNLI is one of three London lifeboat stations serving the entire length of the Thames from the estuary up to Teddington Lock. The RNLI remains a charity that relies on donations and voluntary contributions for its lifesaving work.� � RNLI

INCIDENT AT TOWER BRIDGE

London Coastguard is coordinating the response to an incident on the Thames in which a pleasure boat, the Millennium Diamond, was in collision with Tower Bridge.

10 people are believed to be injured.

Emergency services and the RNLI are on the scene.

Other Reports

�A City Cruises boat collided with the south pier of Tower Bridge this lunchtime. MPS Marine Policing Unit attended the scene and�reported that two people were injured.

The boat docked at St Katharine�s pier and one passenger was removed on a stretcher and taken to hospital while the other was treated ashore. Minor damages to the vessel are reported.

Tower Bridge remains open to pedestrians and road traffic.� –http://londonist.com

More inc photos athttp://londonist.com/2014/06/city-cruises-vessel-collides-with-tower-bridge.php?showpage=2#gallery-1

Tower Bridge boat crash: Nine injured and treated by @TowerRNLIhttp://t.co/u6WBXiFKMb#TowerBridgepic.twitter.com/qXJinat2bL

� London24 (@london24) June 4, 2014

UK: 2,400 teens prepare for annual 2-day Ten Tors Challenge/Jubilee Challenge across Dartmoor – Published 050514 1720z

May 5, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

�Each year,�thousands of�young people take up the Ten Tors challenge across�Dartmoor_National_Park

The challenge takes place across a weekend in May each year, however the participants will have been training for many months beforehand.

This year�s Ten Tors challenge takes place over the weekend of the 10-11 May however the students taking part will have been training for the months leading up to the weekend.

The weather plays a major part in the successful completion of the event for everyone taking part. Check the�Dartmoor weather forecast before you set off.

You can also check to see if there have been any�weather warnings issued that will affect Dartmoor National Park over the Ten Tors weekend.

To find out further information about the event, visit the Ten Tors website.

The challenge

400 teams of six�take part in�the challenge to complete the course. There are�three different course lengths,�depending on the age and ability of the team:

35 miles
45 miles
55 miles

The�idea�of the challenge is for the teenagers�to become self-sufficient for the�weekend�-�carrying everything they�ll need for the trek and�making their own decisions.

Ten Tors and the weather

The weather has played a major part in previous Ten Tors challenges. In the event�s recent history, competitors have had to deal with a variety of weather conditions. In 1998, high temperatures meant there was a severe risk of dehydration for the participants. However, two years before that, there were severely low temperatures and Dartmoor National Park was struck by a sleet and snow storm which lead to the military having to�rescue some of the young people.

Take some time to watch this�series of short videos on the skills needed to stay safe both out on the moors and the�mountains.

Lt Col Tony Clark OBE PARA explains just how much the weather plays a part in the Ten Tors event�at Dartmoor�National Park.

Ten Tors and the Weather (PDF,�96 kB)

Good luck to all those taking part in this year�s event.

The infographic below provides a summary of weather conditions at Okehampton on Dartmoor, over the last 20 years on the 10 � 11 May. Please feel free to download it as a pdf. (PDF,�3 MB) .

Ten Tors Infographic

You can check the weather forecast for other�events through the Events Calendar.

If you�re looking for content for your own website, take a look at our weather widget.

Check out Jersey�s upgraded doppler radar, which covers Dartmoor: http://www.jerseymet.gov.je/Radar/Radar.html

Latest BBC Weather forecast here: http://bbc.in/rMtsS5

Latest news can be found on the Event website. http://events.exeter.ac.uk/tentors/ and mobile.tentors.org.uk (WAP)

Ten Tors Facebook page

Army gears up as 2,400 teens prepare for Dartmoor�s Ten Tors -�grough

�The Army and hundreds of young competitors are gearing up for an annual test of stamina and navigation on Dartmoor next weekend.

The Ten Tors gets underway next Saturday at 7am, with 2,400 teenagers expected to tackle the course over 35, 45 or 55 miles.

The challenge crosses some of some of the toughest terrain and highest peaks in southern England and competitors must rely on their navigational skills and carry all their food, water, bedding, tents and other essentials as they go.

The 54th running of the event starts at Okehampton Camp and a shorter course, the Jubilee Challenge, is undertaken by youngsters with physical or educational needs.

Most of the teams in the Ten Tors are from schools and youth groups from Bristol, Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, Somerset and Wiltshire, along with scores of Scout groups, sports and ramblers teams and armed forces cadet units.

The Army said the challenge will be even harder this year. For the first time in more than 30 years the Ten Tors has new routes aimed at improving resilience and enhancing safety of the event.

Brigadier Piers Hankinson, director of Ten Tors and commander of�43 Wessex Brigade said: �The policy committee and I have implemented changes to reduce the need for participants to cross certain water obstacles and to walk along busy public roads.

�We have also reduced the dependency of the event on helicopters � for obvious weather implications � and so the locations of safety control points have moved closer to road-heads rather than on top of the Tors; checkpoints remain on the Tors.

�I believe these changes will not compromise the original aims of the event: to develop teamwork and practice navigation. If anything the challenge will be more demanding, with the experience and appreciation of a high moorland location and the associated weather conditions of a challenging environment.�

Kevin Bishop, chief executive of Dartmoor National Park Authority said: �Dartmoor is a special place and Ten Tors is a special event.

�We wish those participating all the best and sincerely hope that the thousands who have been involved in training and the actual event will have developed a passion for the national park and help us to sustain its special qualities for future generations to enjoy.�

The Ten Tors� founder Lieutenant Colonel Lionel �Greg� Gregory died earlier this year. An Army spokesperson said: �His legacy is that that Ten Tors has stood the test of time and while wool jumpers have been replaced by Gore-Tex jackets it is considered by many the premier youth development expedition in Britain.�

The Ten Tors and Jubilee Challenge take place on Saturday 10 May.� -Liz Roberts, Reporter grough (Last updated at Saturday 03 May 2014 08:10 AM GMT)

Dartmoor Rescue supporting the Ten Tors Challenge

Dartmoor Rescue team will be camping on the moor from Friday 9th until all participants are accounted for, providing a search and rescue backup for the event
Secretary

It�s a fabulous event with a lot of hard work by the army and other organisations, including Dartmoor Rescue, who help to make it happen and run smoothly.

Dartmoor Rescue�volunteers look forward to it every year and will be camping out on the moor for the duration providing assistance for any participants who need our specialist help.

Their blog has some articles and videos to give you an idea of what we get involved with.

http://www.dsrtashburton.org.uk/tag/ten-tors/

You can keep up to date with the event and the progress of the teams on their respective routes via the event website.

http://events.exeter.ac.uk/tentors/

Calling the emergency services from a mobile phone (Advice from Dartmoor Rescue)

The short video gives important information about dialing the emergency services from a mobile phone in the event of an accident. It answers important questions such as:

what�s the difference between 999 and 112?
How can you call when your mobile phone is showing no signal?
Or if somebody in your party is unconscious and their�s is the only mobile, �how can you bypass the phone security to make that important call and potentially save their life?

All this and more is explained simply and clearly.

So be prepared and watch the video as it could save the life or a family member of friend.

�Help Me� The Secrets of using 112 on a mobile phone in an emergency/accident

You need to register your mobile phone before being able to alert the emergency services, including mountain and cave rescue, via SMS text message. �This is best done�before�you need help. You can register by sending an SMS text message from your mobile phone as follows:

(Goaty: Suggest better to register with 112 rather than 999 � why? see video, but why not both)

More information can be found at the following website:�http://www.emergencysms.org.uk/

General Mountain/Moorland Advice from Mountain Rescue England & Wales:

Mountains and moorlands can be treacherous places without proper care and there are many, many ways to enjoy the mountain environment, be it walking, climbing, running, cycling or skiing. There�s no subsititute for experience, but there are steps you can take to minimise the chances of getting lost or hurt.

Prepare and plan

Develop the mountain skills you need to judge potential hazard, including the ability to read a map.
Think about the equipment, experience, capabilities and enthusiasm of your party members, taking into account the time of year, the terrain and the nature of the trip � and choose your routes accordingly.
Learn the basic principles of first aid � airway, breathing, circulation and the recovery position. It could make the difference between life and death.

Wear suitable clothing and footwear

Wear suitable footwear with a treaded sole, and which provides support for ankles.
Clothing should be colourful, warm, windproof and waterproof and always carry spare, including hat and gloves (even in summer the tops and open moorland can still be bitingly cold, and it�s always colder the higher you climb).

Carry food and drink�

Take ample food and drink for each member of the party. High energy food such as chocolate and dried fruit are ideal for a quick hit.
In cold, wet weather a warm drink is advisable, and always carry water � even in cool weather it�s easy to become dehydrated.
Of course, large quantities of water can weight heavy in the rucksack, so take a smaller water bottle and top up when you can � streams on hills are drinkable if fast-running over stony beds.

�and the right equipment

A map and compass are essential kit and should be easily accessible � not buried in the rucksack!
A mobile phone and GPS are useful tools but don�t rely on your mobile to get you out of trouble � in may areas of the mountains there is no signal coverage.
Take a whistle and learn the signal for rescue. Six good long blasts. Stop for one minute. Repeat. Carry on the whistle blasts until someone reaches you and don�t stop because you�ve heard a reply � rescuers may be using your blasts as a direction finder.
A torch (plus spare batteries and bulbs) is a must. Use it for signalling in the same pattern as for whistle blasts.
At least one reliable watch in the party.
Cllimbers and mountain bikers should wear a helmet. In winter conditions, an ice-axe, crampons and survival bag are essential.
Emergency survival kit comprising spare clothing and a bivvi bag.
New OrdnanceSurvey free smartphone app OSLocate will help walkers in a fix http://www.grough.co.uk/magazine/2014/03/24/ordnance-survey-free-smartphone-app-will-help-walkers-in-a-fix

Before you set out

Charge your phone battery! Many accidents occur towards the end of the day when both you and your phone may be low on energy.
Check the weather forecast and local conditions. Mountains can be major undertakings and, in the winter months, night falls early.
Eat well before you start out.
Leave your route plan including start and finish points, estimated time of return and contact details with an appropriate party.

On the hill

Keep an eye on the weather and be prepared to turn back if conditions turn against you, even if this upsets a long planned adventure.
Make sure party leaders are experienced. Keep together, allow the slowest member of the party to determine the pace, and take special care of the youngest and weakest in dangerous places.
Watch for signs of hypothermia, particularly in bad weather � disorientation, shivering, tiredness, pale complexion and loss of circulation in hands or toes, discarding of vital clothing. Children and older people are especially susceptible.
If you prefer to go alone, be aware of the additional risk. Let people know your route before you start, stick to it as far as you can and notify them of any changes.
If you think you need mountain rescue, get a message to the Police (999/112) as soon as possible and keep injured/exhausted people safe and warm until help reaches you.

Dangers you can avoid

Precipices and unstable boulder.
Slopes of ice or steep snow, and snow cornices on ridges or gully tops.
Very steep grass slopes, especially if frozen or wet.
Gullies, gorges and stream beds, and streams in spate.
Exceeding your experience and abilities and loss of concentration.

Dangers you need to monitor

Weather changes � mist gale, rain and snow may be sudden and more extreme than forecast.
Ice on path (know how to use an ice-axe and crampons).
Excessive cold or heat (dress appropriately and carry spare clothing!).
Exhaustion (know the signs, rest and keep warm).
Passage of time � especially true when under pressure � allow extra time in winter or night time conditions.

Check out the new Safe in the Hills website � pioneered by the Kirkby Stephen MRT, for more information about how you can keep safe whilst walking in the hills.

More about Ten Tors from wikipedia.org

Look after your feet, you don�t want this sort of fun�..

�How to take care of your feet when hiking�. The key recommendations are:

Choose the right hiking boots
Trim your toenails
Soften any tough skin (which are subject to hard to treat deep blisters)
Rest feet when walking

�Avoiding and treating foot blisters for hikers�, as well as giving some useful advice on how to treat blisters, highlights the importance of changing your (decent walking) socks when they get wet

Make sure you have a decent pair of boots
Take plenty of decent hiking socks
Change your socks when they get damp (if you do this as early as possible you have a fighting chance to dry them in your sleeping bag)
Regularly let your feet rest and breath
Regularly apply talc to your feet
If it is raining or very damp, wear gaiters to stop water getting into your boots

Do this and your feet, the most important hiking equipment you have, will thank you!

(Stolen from http://philsorrell.com/2010/03/01/importance-of-foot-care-whilst-hiking/)

The latest forecast for Dartmoor can be found on the Met Office events page.

Check out Jersey�s upgraded doppler radar, which covers Dartmoor: http://www.jerseymet.gov.je/Radar/Radar.html

Latest BBC Weather forecast here: http://bbc.in/rMtsS5

Latest news can be found on the Event website. http://events.exeter.ac.uk/tentors/ and mobile.tentors.org.uk (WAP)

Ten Tors Facebook page

Good luck to everyone taking part!

Goaty�s News can also be found on�Facebook and Twitter

UK: 2,400+ teens complete annual 2-day Ten Tors Challenge/Jubilee Challenge across Dartmoor � 120513�1700z

UK: Ticks on the rise � How dangerous are tick bites? � Published 030514�1522z

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Spring has sprung

March 5, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Official blog of the Met Office news team

Warmer, drier weather is on the way for parts of the country. As we move through the week a north–south divide develops across the UK with Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England and parts of Wales being changeable and windy. However in the south high pressure will dominate bringing dry weather for the weekend, with the best of the weather in the Southeast.

Temperatures are expected to reach mid to high teens in the South this weekend (8^th – 9^th March), while northwest England and Scotland are likely to see spells of strong winds and rain and there is a risk of overnight frosts.

This is in sharp contrast to the record breaking winter we have just experienced. It was the wettest winter for the UK, England, Wales and Scotland, and the second wettest winter for Northern Ireland in the record series dating from 1910. It was the stormiest…

View original post 138 more words

The RNLI ‘Respect the Water’ campaign

January 20, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Related:

RNLI stories on Goaty’s News

National Water Safety

Despite the best efforts of the Royal National Lifeboat Institution’s volunteer crews and lifeguards – Did you know that around 150 people still lose their lives around the UK coast each year, and around 80% are men?

….And are you aware that cold water shock occurs in water less than 15 degrees, but the average UK sea temperature is just 12?

You may also be surprised to know that just one metre cubed of water weighs a tonne, and that is not a lot of water. Although as water safety professionals some of this may seem obvious, our research shows that many of those most at risk underestimate such facts, and therefore put themselves in situations of increased and unnecessary risk.

These findings underpinned a new RNLI coastal safety campaign called ‘Respect the Water’ last summer to help raise awareness about dangers of drowning and general risks around the coast. The…

View original post 295 more words

The Order of St John and Mountain Rescue?

January 4, 2014 by Goaty's News UK

Old mans thoughts and tales.

I bet few who use the Outdoors know about the wonderful work of the Order Of St John and its incredible assistance to Mountain Rescue in Scotland? Hope fully after reading this you may have an idea of what work they have done.

This is the copy of a letter I wrote to the Order when I retired from Mountain Rescue. Firstly please accept my sincere apologies for not writing before to thank you for all your great work for the Mountain Rescue Committee of Scotland over the year for the Mountain Rescue Committee of Scotland over the years. I was the Chairman of the Mountain Rescue Committee in the early nineties when we were first approached by the Order of St John who wanted to assist Mountain Rescue in Scotland.

I was at that time in the RAF and serving at RAF Kinloss in Morayshire. I was the Team…

View original post 835 more words