UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 16 Nov 2015 2330z (GMT/UTC)

==UK==

STORM BARNEY

SKYWARN

Severe Weather Alert #54 issued (See below)

Met Office Severe Weather Warnings:

Met Office Weather Warnings for mobile

Highlands & Eilean Siar Yellow Warning

Strathclyde Yellow Warning

London & South East England Yellow Warning

East Midlands Yellow Warning

North West England Yellow Warning

South West England Yellow Warning

Yorkshire & Humber Yellow Warning

Orkney & Shetland Yellow Warning

East of England Yellow Warning

Wales Yellow Warning

West Midlands Yellow Warning

North East England Yellow Warning

(For details follow above links)

 20 Flood Warnings in England and Wales – 6 in Scotland

at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

29 Flood Alerts in England and Wales – 5 in Scotland

at 

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

( Check for interim updates in comments at bottom of page)

Severe Weather Warnings for Europe are now toward the bottom of the page

UK Visible Satellite (meteocentre.com)

UK Infra Red Satellite (meteocentre.com)

Weather Radar Europe (meteox.co.uk)

Channel Islands (Jersey) Weather Radar Latest Animation

Jersey Radar also covers much of South/South West of England & N France

CI weather warnings


SkyWarn UK’s mission is to forecast, report, and record severe weather.

SKYWARN UK CURRENT ALERT (Link)

Severe Weather Alert #54
SWUK has issued a Severe Weather Alert for strong winds in excess of 70mph
Valid from 1300hrs Tuesday 17th November to 0300hrs Wednesday 18th November.
for
South and South Western England & Wales
An easterly moving low pressure system (officially named ‘Barney’ by the MetO) will track across southern UK on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wind gusts could exceed SWUK criteria of 70mph along exposed coasts on the southern flank of the low.
Wales and the Bristol Channel could see gusts of 80mph
Spotters in the alert area are requested to report any breaches of SWUK criteria in the normal manner.

For details on SkyWarn UK’s alert criteria, click HERE.

TORRO Logo The Tornado & Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)

The latest Severe Weather Reports from TORRO can be found by following this link:

SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST

Report Severe Weather

Torro on Facebook

Latest news reports (see bottom of page)

BBC Weather

Monday

151116

Tuesday

151117

Wednesday

151118

UK Warnings

Warnings

Monday 16 November Published at 16:54

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for NORTHWEST SCOTLAND

Issued at 10:35 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 11:00 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid until 23:55 on Mon 16 Nov

Southwesterly winds will increase during Monday, when severe gales will affect parts of the northwest mainland of Scotland, the Western Isles and Northern Isles. The strongest winds will initially develop across the Western Isles and northwest coast this afternoon before extending into the Northern Isles during the evening. Winds will quickly ease on Tuesday.

Gusts of wind of 65-75 mph are expected in places, so be aware that there may be some further disruption to travel. Additionally, large waves may cause some overtopping of sea defences.

This an update to the warning issued on Sunday morning.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 10:23 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 10:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Tue 17 Nov

Further rain is expected on Tuesday as a frontal system runs across the UK from the west. The largest accumulations are expected across the hills of northwest England and northwest Wales though low lying areas will also see a period of heavy rain. On the southern side of this system some very strong winds are expected and a separate warning for winds is likely to be issued.

The public should be aware that, given the already saturated conditions, flooding is possible either from standing water or from rivers already swollen by recent rainfall. This could lead to disruption to travel and perhaps localised flooding to properties.

This is a further update to the warning originally issued on Friday, reducing the northern extent of the warning and moving into minor impacts.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for much of WALES and SOUTHERN ENGLAND

Issued at 10:46 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 15:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:30 on Tue 17 Nov

West to southwesterly gales and locally severe gales are likely to sweep eastwards across parts of Wales, southern, central and eastern England later on Tuesday. Gusts could reach 60-70 mph inland and possibly 80 mph along exposed coasts, particularly Wales and through the Bristol Channel.

Be aware of the risk of disruption to travel and that gusts of this strength could bring down trees and lead to some damage to weakened structures.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW EARLY WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 12:17 on Sun 15 Nov

Valid from 16:00 on Wed 18 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Wed 18 Nov

Another spell of heavy rain, accompanied by gale force winds in places, will cross the country on Wednesday, with largest rainfall over the high ground areas already saturated from recent wet weather. Up to 50 mm is expected in the wettest spots in North Wales and NW England.

The public should be aware of the potential for further impacts such as disruption to travel and local flooding.

Further updates will appear here.

When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings

Northern Ireland: Addition information available from https://www.facebook.com/northernirelandweather?fref=ts

Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.

What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

Peter Gibbs explains sudden stratospheric warming and why it is often linked to outbreaks of cold weather: Sudden stratospheric warming

What is freezing fog?

UK RADAR AND SATELLITE

Surface Analyses & Observations UK and Europe

https://embed.windyty.com/?surface,wind,now,53.801,3.076,4,,menu,,

Animated map of global wind conditions

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

News at bottom of page

FLOOD WARNINGS & ALERTS

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNING currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

Flood Warning Flood Warning Flooding is expected. Immediate action required

There are 20 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618.aspx

There are 6 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

Flood Alert Flood AlertFlooding is possible. Be prepared.

There are 29 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

There are 5 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline 0845 988 1188

Coastal Forecast

A 24 hour weather forecast for 24 UK coastal areas

Tide Tables

Tidal information supplied by the UK Hydrographic Office

Inshore Waters

There are strong wind warnings in 19 areas.

There is a gale warning in 1 area.

The next few days will be dominated by severeal areas of low pressure tracking across the British Isles bringing strong winds, large waves and changeable weather to all parts.

Shipping Forecast

There are gale warnings in 29 areas.

The general synopsis at midday

Low Bailey 964 expected Norwegian Basin 973 by midday tomorrow. New low expected Shannon 983 by same time.

Extended Outlook

The Extended Outlook aims to signpost expected hazards for the Cullercoats, Niton and Portpatrick areas for the three days beyond the 24 hour shipping forecast.

High Seas

There are storm warnings in 8 areas.

The general synopsis at 16 November 20:00 UTC

At 161200UTC low 60 north 13 west 964 expected 63 north 02 east 973 by 171200UTC. Low 48 north 39 west 987 expected 53 north 12 west 983 by same time. Low 50 north 20 west 998 losing its identity by that time. New low moving slowly east expected 53 north 32 west 988 by 171200UTC

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 27 Dec 2014 1433z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-08-jan-2015-1203z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 11 Dec 2014 1343z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here:  https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-26-dec-2014-0830z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Bermuda/Canada/Atlantic: Hurricane GONZALO CAT1 181500Z 36.8N 61.7W, moving NNE at 22 knots (NHC) – Updated 181014 1643Z

Hurricane GONZALO

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…GONZALO FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR…
ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND…NHC

AFTER MAKING A DIRECT HIT ON BERMUDA LAST EVENING, HURRICANE
GONZALO IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE, NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING..
...CHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 181455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

…GONZALO FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…36.8N 61.7W
ABOUT 355 MI…575 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 815 MI…1310 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH…41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…966 MB…28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR…
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH…41 KM/H. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
DAY AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 90 MPH…150
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES…335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB…28.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS…PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST…BERMUDA…AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

==================================================

BWS – Tropical Update Bulletin
HURRICANE GONZALO
IS A POTENTIAL THREAT TO BERMUDA
Advisory #25, 12 pm Sat, Oct 18, 2014
KEY: Blue = 34-50 kts, Yellow = 50-64 kts, and Red = 64 kts and greater
Diagonal shading indicates fringe winds (34kts or greater surrounding the storm’s core)
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) has passed.
Current Position: 36.8N 61.7W approx. 310 nm NNE of Bermuda
Recent Movement: NNE or 30 degrees at 22 kt
Central Pressure: 966 mb / 28.52 in
Max Winds: 80kt gusts 100kt
In line with NHC updates, Tropical Update Bulletins(TUB) are normally issued every 6 hours. Intermediate advisories may be issued every 3 hours when a tropical watch or warning is in effect (every 2 hours when radar has identified a storm centre). Additionally, TUBs may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.
Hurricane Track Information
WOCN31 CWHX 181145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:56 AM ADT SATURDAY
18 OCTOBER 2014.
———————————————————————
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR HURRICANE GONZALO.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

AFTER MAKING A DIRECT HIT ON BERMUDA LAST EVENING, HURRICANE
GONZALO IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE, NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 35.8 NORTH 62.5 WEST.

ABOUT 430 KILOMETRES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 157 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 37 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE TRACK COULD RANGE FROM ST.
MARY’S BAY TO ABOUT 150 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE.
THIS REPRESENTS A RANGE OF ABOUT 200 KILOMETRES WITH ABOUT A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STORM CENTRE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN
AVALON PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF AVALON PENINSULA NORTH, BEGINNING TONIGHT.THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE HAS ISSUED RAINFALL WARNINGS
FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA.

A. WIND.

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AVALON
PENINSULA NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO 50
GUSTING TO 80 KM/H.

B. RAINFALL.

MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AS A RESULT
OF GONZALO’S PASSAGE. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL FROM GONZALO IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO WILL BEGIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND END BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. IN THE AREAS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN, RAINFALL RATES OF 25 MILLIMETRES PER HOUR FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LARGEST WAVES WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE IN
THE 5 TO 8 METRE RANGE AND COULD POSSIBLY EXCEED 10 METRES.
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND, WAVES OF 4 TO 6
METRES ARE LIKELY.

OF CONCERN IS THAT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA IS
NEAR DAWN SUNDAY WHICH COULD BE THE APPROXIMATE TIME OF GONZALO’S
PASSAGE. HIGH COASTAL WATER LEVELS AND HIGH WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG
SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL FLOODING MAINLY DUE TO WAVE ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME.

ALSO, THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE OCEAN
SWELLS OF 2 TO 3 METRES BEGINNING TONIGHT AND BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
METRES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED REGARDING THE WAVES AND
HIGH WATER LEVELS.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THIS STORM WILL HAVE HEAVY IMPACTS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MARINE
AREAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS
OF 12 METRES ARE LIKELY OVER SOME OFFSHORE MARINE AREAS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM’S TRACK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT WAVES COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 18 METRES
FROM THE LAURENTIAN FAN INTO THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS, WITH LESSER
WAVE HEIGHTS FURTHER NORTH.

MARINE WARNINGS SUMMARY:

NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS: HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS.
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST, EAST COAST – CAPE
ST. FRANCIS AND SOUTH, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FUNK ISLAND BANK – SOUTHERN HALF.

MARITIMES WATERS: A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAURENTIAN FAN – SOUTHEASTERN HALF. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
LAURENTIAN FAN – NORTHWESTERN HALF AND BANQUEREAU – SOUTHEASTERN
HALF. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE –
SOUTHEASTERN HALF AND BANQUEREAU NORTHWESTERN HALF.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/HATT/MERCER/FOGARTY
_______________________________________________
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Oct, 2014 9:00 GMT

Hurricane GONZALO (AL08) currently located near 34.7 N 63.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wales
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
    Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
    Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Birmingham (52.5 N, 1.9 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Cardiff (51.5 N, 3.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Lands End (50.1 N, 5.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
    Hull (53.8 N, 0.1 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Weymouth (50.6 N, 2.4 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Torquay (50.3 N, 3.7 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Southampton (50.9 N, 1.4 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Cambridge (52.2 N, 0.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 181454

WTNT23 KNHC 181454
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR…
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 61.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT……. 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT……. 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT…….150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 220SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 61.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.8N 58.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT… 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT…150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 51.3N 38.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT… 90NE 240SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 53.5N 23.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 240SE 320SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 181603

FZNT01 KWBC 181603
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CCODE/2:31:04:11:00/AOW+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

PAN PAN

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 18
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 19
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 20

.WARNINGS.

..HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE GONZALO NEAR 36.8N 61.7W 966 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18
MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 22 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE…220 NM SW QUADRANT
AND 320 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 47 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL GONZALO NEAR 47.0N
50.5W 980 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE…180 NM SE AND 120 NM SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
180 NM NW…240 NM NE…420 NM SE AND 360 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS
30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT. ALSO WITHIN 300 NM NE…540 NM SE
AND 660 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 25 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL GONZALO E OF AREA NEAR 53.5N
23.5W 993 MB. FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 56N56W 992 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 660 NM NE…420 NM NE
AND 780 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N45W 991 MB. WITHIN 540 NM NW AND 240 NM
NE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N37W 993 MB. WITHIN 720 NM NW AND 420 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 45N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND 50N57W 991 MB. WITHIN 660 NM S
SEMICIRCLE AND 480 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO
16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 58N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT WHERE NOTED WITH HURRICANE GONZALO IN WARNINGS SECTION
ABOVE FROM 31N TO 43N BETWEEN 49W AND 70W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH POST-TROPICAL
GONZALO IN WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

.FROM 31N TO 66N E OF 46W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 52N E OF 41W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 55N E OF 40W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 63N TO 66N E OF 38W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 57N TO 66N E OF 42W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 14 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 43N TO 47N
BETWEEN 53W AND 59W AND FROM 48N TO 56N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 53N BETWEEN 43W AND 57W
AND FROM 49N TO 54N E OF 42W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 55N BETWEEN 42W AND 58W.

.HIGH 41N45W 1027 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N38W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.FORECASTER HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 20.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 29.5N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
12 TO 14 FT. N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 31N74W TO 20N60W TO 20N35W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF LINE 31N59W TO 13N35W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE AND N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE OF LINE 31N54W TO 20N35W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN N SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
================================================

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 20 Aug 2014 1930z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/10/26/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-26-oct-2014-0751z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 25 Aug 2014 1717z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-3th

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Spring has sprung

Official blog of the Met Office news team

Warmer, drier weather is on the way for parts of the country.  As we move through the week a north–south divide develops across the UK with Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England and parts of Wales being changeable and windy. However in the south high pressure will dominate  bringing dry weather for the weekend, with the best of the weather in the Southeast.

Temperatures are expected to reach mid to high teens in the South this weekend (8th – 9th March), while northwest England and Scotland are likely to see spells of strong winds and rain and there is a risk of overnight frosts.

This is in sharp contrast to the record breaking winter we have just experienced.  It was the wettest winter for the UK, England, Wales and Scotland, and the second wettest winter for Northern Ireland in the record series dating from 1910. It was the stormiest…

View original post 138 more words

RAF Chinook called in to help save Sheep

RAF Families Federation

CHINOOKAs well as all the emergency work being done by RAF SAR a Chinook has also been called in to help – this time to drop fodder for sheep farmers unable to help their own flocks because of the appalling weather. A RAF Chinook arrives at Flying Stn Aldergrove, to be loaded with animal feed for distribution to farms inaccessible by road. Working alongside the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development to identify… More information

View original post

NI: Attempt to bomb Catholic church in Belfast foiled – 030313 1230z

An attempt has been made to bomb a Catholic church on the outskirts of north Belfast.

Police say a small, crude but viable explosive device was found outside St Mary’s on the Hill Catholic church on Carnmoney Road near Newtownabbey.

The road was closed for several hours while British Army bomb disposal experts made the device safe.

It was taken away for forensic examination.

PSNI detectives investigating the incident have asked anyone who may have noticed suspicious activity in the Carnmoney Road area, or who has information to contact them.

News Reports

Small bomb is found outside church in Glengormley

St Mary's on the Hill

A small bomb has been found outside a Catholic church in Glengormley, County Antrim.

It was found outside the St Mary’s on the Hill Church on the Carnmoney Road at about 22:00 GMT on Saturday.

The Carnmoney Road was closed for a number of hours while Army bomb disposal experts made the device safe.

It has now been taken away for forensic examination. Police described it as being “crude but viable”.

LESLIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND – Updated 11 Sept 2012 1526Z

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Leslie 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

(Image: weatheroffice.gc.ca)
Leslie Track Information
(Click image for animation/source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com)
Post-Tropical Cyclone LESLIE
Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)

 

 

WTNT32 KNHC 111439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

…LESLIE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM NEWFOUNDLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…49.4N 53.6W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM NNW OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 45 MPH…72 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH…72 KH/HR…AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES…555 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB…28.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY.  THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL…RAINS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

En français :

WTNT32 KNHC 111439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN DE
CYCLONE POST-TROPICALE LESLIE CONSULTATIF NUMÉRO 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 SUIS AST TUE SEP 11 2012

…LESLIE DEVIENT UN CYCLONE POST-TROPICALE EN TANT QU’IL COMMENCE À S’EN ÉLOIGNER
DE TERRE-NEUVE…

RÉSUMÉ DE 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC… INFORMATION
———————————————–
EMPLACEMENT…49.4N 53.6W
ENVIRON 130 MI…210 KM NNO DE ST. JOHNS, TERRE-NEUVE
VENTS MAXIMUMS SOUTENUS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
MOUVEMENT ACTUEL…NNE OU 30 DEGRÉS À 45 MI/H…72 KM/H
PRESSION MINIMALE AU CENTRE…968 MO…28.59 POUCES

VEILLES ET AVERTISSEMENTS
——————–
CHANGEMENTS AVEC CET AVIS…

AUCUN.

RÉSUMÉ DES VEILLES ET DES AVERTISSEMENTS EN VIGUEUR…

UNE VEILLE D’OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR…
* TERRE-NEUVE DE PIERRES COVE À CHARLOTTETOWN

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR…
* TERRE-NEUVE DU PORT INDIEN DE TRITON

POUR TEMPÊTE D’INFORMATIONS SPÉCIFIQUE À VOTRE RÉGION…VEUILLEZ SURVEILLER
PRODUITS ÉMIS PAR LE CENTRE CANADIEN DE L’OURAGAN.

DISCUSSION ET PERSPECTIVES DE 48 HEURES
——————————
1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…LE CYCLONE CENTRE DE POST-TROPICALE
LESLIE ÉTAIT SITUÉE PRÈS DE NORTH LATITUDE 49,4…53,6 DE LONGITUDE OUEST.
LE CYCLONE POST-TROPICALE SE DÉPLACE VERS AU NORD-EST À 45
MPH…72 KH/H…ET UN TOUR AU NORD-EST ET À L’ENE EST
PRÉVUE DURANT LE JOUR SUIVANT OU.

LES VENTS MAXIMUMS SOUTENUS SONT PRÈS DE 70 MI/H…110 KM/H….AVEC PLUS
RAFALES. CE SYSTÈME DEVRAIT DEMEURER UNE FORTE POST-TROPICALE
CYCLONE POUR LE LENDEMAIN OU DEUX.

LES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE S’ÉTENDENT VERS L’EXTÉRIEUR JUSQU’À 345 MILLES…555 KM
PARTIR DU CENTRE.

MINIMUM ESTIMÉ LA PRESSION CENTRALE EST DE 968 MO…28.59 POUCES.

RISQUES TOUCHANT TERRE
———————-
VENT…VENTS DE FORCE TEMPÊTE-TROPICAL SERONT POURSUIVRA AU COURS DE L’EST
NEWFOUNDLAND À TRAVERS CET APRÈS-MIDI MAIS COMMENCERA PROGRESSIVEMENT À
S’AFFAISSER.

SURF…HOULE GÉNÉRÉE PAR LESLIE CONTINUERA À AFFECTER L’ATLANTIQUE
CANADA AUJOURD’HUI. CES HOULES POURRAIENT CAUSER Le MORTELLES SURF ET
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. VEUILLEZ CONSULTER LES PRODUITS DE VOTRE SECTION LOCALE
BUREAU MÉTÉOROLOGIQUE POUR PLUS D’INFORMATIONS.

PLUIE…PLUIES DIMINUE PROGRESSIVEMENT AU COURS DE LA JOURNÉE.

AVIS AUX PROCHAINES
————-
C’EST LE DERNIER AVIS PUBLIC ÉMIS PAR LE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTRE SUR CE SYSTÈME. DES INFORMATIONS SUPPLÉMENTAIRES SUR CE SYSTÈME PEUVENT ÊTRE
TROUVÉ EN HAUTE MER PRÉVISIONS ÉMISES PAR LA MÉTÉO NATIONALE
SERVICE…SOUS L’EN-TÊTE DE AWIPS NFDHSFAT1 ET FZNT01 DE L’EN-TÊTE DE L’OMM KWBC.

$$
PRÉVISIONNISTE AVILA

WOCN31 CWHX 111145
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 9:15 AM ADT Tuesday
11 September 2012.
———————————————————————
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Labrador
      Newfoundland
      Nova Scotia.

      For post-tropical storm Leslie.

      The next intermediate statement will be issued at 12:00 PM ADT.
      Followed by the next full statement issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

      Leslie made landfall near Fortune on the Burin Peninsula and
      Still packing a Wallop.

———————————————————————
Tropical cyclone information statement ended for:
Prince Edward Island.

———————————————————————
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 AM ADT.

Location: near 47.6 north 54.8 west.

About 60 kilometres north of Fortune, nl.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/hour.

Present movement: north-northeast near 65 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 969 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect for parts
of southern and Eastern Newfoundland being directly affected by
post-tropical storm Leslie this morning.  Rainfall warnings are in
effect all of Newfoundland but the southeast.

The centre of Leslie made landfall on the Southern Burin Peninsula
near the town of Fortune at 8:30 AM NDT.  It should be kept in mind
that this is a large system with widespread impacts and the exact
landfall point isn’t that important.  Rain bands extend well
northward and to the west of Leslie and are currently giving very
heavy rainfall rates on the order of 25 millimetres per hour to parts
of the Burin Peninsula and points north.  Current observation show
amounts in excess of 60 millimetres over parts of Western
Newfoundland with significantly more expected for Central and Western
Newfoundland.  Southeast winds are strengthening rapidly ahead and
east of Leslie.  St. John’s international airport is currently
showing sustained storm force winds of 90 km/h gusting to near
hurricane force at 131 km/h; Long Pond had a gust to hurricane force
at 124 km/h; Cape Race recently reported a wind gust to 100 km/h;
Argentia has gusted to 120 km/h; Winterland and St. Lawrence on the
Burin Peninsula recently reported a wind gust to 83 and 95 km/h
respectively.  A private weather station at cape pine on the Southern
Avalon recently reported a hurricane force wind gust of 137 km/h.

Much-smaller hurricane Michael has just been downgraded to a tropical
storm.  It is well to the south of Leslie and is not expected to have
any impact on the region.  It has been bypassed by Leslie’s large
circulation and will dissipate as it passes east of the Grand Banks
over the next day or two.

A. Wind.

A 2:00 AM ADT report from an offshore buoy very near the centre of
Leslie reported sustained winds of 85 km/h and a wind gust of
115 km/h, and at 7 AM ADT the smart bay buoy in Placentia Bay showed
78 km/h gusting to 100.  This combined with the many high winds at
shore stations already mentioned support sustained marginal hurricane
windspeeds east of the storm centre with higher gusts.

Leslie has a huge wind circulation with strong and gusty
northwesterly winds affecting most of the Maritimes today.
The strongest winds from Leslie are confined to Eastern Newfoundland
in areas 100 to 300 kilometres to the right of the track, where
southerly winds of 80 gusting to 120+ km/h are occurring.
Northwesterly winds behind Leslie are not expected to be quite as
strong at this time but gusts to 90 or 100 km/h are possible for
parts of western and Northern Newfoundland.  In Nova Scotia the
strongest winds behind the storm will be over Cape Breton where gusts
to 80 km/h are expected this morning.

Wind impacts include the some tree damage amd minor damage to some
structuresn, especially over Eastern Newfoundland with wind gusts
over 120 km/h.  This will continue lead to downed utility lines and
some property damage.

B. Rainfall.

The slow-moving frontal system has already drenched parts of Nova
Scotia, pei and Western Newfoundland, with some areas already
receiving well in excess of 100 millimetres.  The highest amounts
currently reported for Newfoundland are in to 40 to 60 millimetres
range for Western Newfoundland, with more expected.  Computer models
and experience with these merging tropical systems in the past show
that event-total rainfall of 150 millimetres, with locally even
higher amounts possible before the rain pulls out of Newfoundland
during theday Tuesday.  The location of the heaviest rainfall will be
in the areas west of Leslie’s track and where its moisture interacts
strongest with the trough, which for now includes Central and Western
Newfoundland.

Rainfall impacts from this storm include the possibility of street
flooding, property erosion and road and bridge washouts.  Hazards for
motorists include reduced visibilities, hydroplaning, flooded
sections of road, and possible compromised roadbeds and bridges.

C. Surge/waves.

And increasing there has been some surge accompanying Leslie’s
arrival this morning but the coincident low tides along the south
coast have kept water levels fairly moderate.

Large long period waves are occurring over Southern Newfoundland and
near the east coast.  Waves of 4-7 metres are forecast for the
southwest coast of Newfoundland increasing to 8-12 metres for the
Placentia Bay area then diminishing to 5 to 8 metres east of the
Avalon Peninsula.  Wave in excess of 10 metres have already occurred
on Placentia Bay.  These wave should diminish by afternoon along the
south coast and Placentia Bay, but will persist until later in the
afternoon or into the evening for the east coast.

These heavy pounding waves will lead to elevated waters levels and
some coastal erosion and the possibility of localized flooding in
exposed or vulnerable areas especially from Fortune east to Cape
Race.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for Newfoundland marine
waters to the east of the track.  Storm and gale warnings are in
effect for adjacent waters in Newfoundland and eastern Maritimes
waters.  Details can be found in the latest marine forecasts issued
from the Atlantic storm prediction center and the Newfoundland and
Labrador weather office.

Coastal impacts include possible damage to docks and wave overwash in
prone areas around the Southern Avalon, Placentia Bay and the Burin
Peninsula.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

– forecast position, central pressure table.

– strength and predicted wind radii table.

– hurricane track information map.

– technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/MERCER/FOGARTY

En français :

WOCN41 CWHX 111145
Cyclone tropical information Déclaration mise à jour par le canadien
Centre de prévision d’ouragan d’Environnement Canada à 09:15 mardi
11 Septembre 2012.
———————————————————————
Cyclone tropical déclaration de renseignements pour :
Labrador
Newfoundland
La Nouvelle-Écosse.

Pour la tempête post-tropicale Leslie.

La prochaine déclaration intermédiaire sera délivrée à 12:00 ADT.
Suivie de la prochaine déclaration complète de 15:00 ADT.

Leslie a touché terre près de Fortune sur la péninsule de Burin et
Encore emballer un Wallop.

———————————————————————
Cyclone tropical information état terminé pour :
Île du Prince Édouard.

———————————————————————
== discussion ==
1. Résumé des informations de base à 9 h 00 AM ADT.

Lieu : près de 47,6 54,8 Nord-Ouest.

Environ 60 kilomètres au nord de Fortune, nl.

Maximale soutenue des vents : 120 km/heure.

Présenter le mouvement : direction près de 65 km/h.

Pression minimale au Centre : 969 MB.

2. Public météo sur les impacts et résumé des avertissements.

Avertissements de tempête tropicale et ouragan montres sont en vigueur pour les parties
du Sud et l’est de Terre-Neuve sont directement touchés par
tempête post-tropicale Leslie ce matin. Les avertissements de pluie sont en
effet tous de Terre-Neuve mais le sud-est.

Le centre de Leslie a touché terre dans le sud de la péninsule Burin
près de la ville de Fortune à 08:30 Hat. Il doit garder à l’esprit
qu’il s’agit d’un grand système avec impacts généralisées et l’exacte
point de folie n’est pas important. Bandes de pluie s’étend bien
vers le Nord et à l’ouest de Leslie et sont actuellement en donnant très
taux de fortes pluies sur l’ordre de 25 millimètres par heure pour pièces
de la péninsule de Burin et le Nord. Salon d’observation actuelle
montants excédant 60 millimètres sur les parties de l’ouest
Terre-Neuve avec significativement plus attendue pour centrale et ouest
Terre-Neuve. Vents du sud-est sont rapidement à venir renforcer et
nord-est de Leslie. Aéroport international de St. John’s est actuellement
tempête soutenue montrant la force des vents de 90 km/h avec des rafales à près de
force d’ouragan à 131 km/h ; Étang long avait une rafale de force d’ouragan
à 124 km/h ; Cape Race a récemment rapporté une rafale de vent à 100 km/h ;
Argentia a rafales de 120 km/h ; Winterland et Saint-Laurent sur la
La péninsule Burin a récemment rapporté une rafale de vent à 83 et 95 km/h
respectivement. Une station météo privée à pin Cap sur le sud
Avalon a récemment rapporté une rafale de vent de force ouragan de 137 km/h.

Très petit ouragan Michael a juste été déclassé pour un tropical
tempête. Il est bien au sud de Leslie et ne devrait pas avoir
aucun impact sur la région. Il a été contourné par Leslie grand
circulation et dissipera qu’il passe à l’est des grands bancs
au cours de la prochaine journée ou deux.

A. vent.

Un rapport ADT 02:00 par une bouée au large des côtes très près du centre de
Leslie a signalé des vents soutenus de 85 km/h et une rafale de vent de
115 km/h, et 7 HAA la bouée baie intelligente dans la baie de plaisance ont montré
78 km/h avec des rafales à 100. Ceci combiné avec les vents forts nombreux à
stations côtières déjà mentionné ouragan marginal soutenue de soutien
vent à l’est du centre de la tempête avec des rafales plus élevées.

Leslie a une circulation vent énorme avec fort et irrégulier
vents du Nord-Ouest qui touchent la plupart des Maritimes aujourd’hui.
Les plus forts vents de Leslie se limitent à l’est de Terre-Neuve
de 100 à 300 kilomètres à droite de la piste, les zones où
les vents du sud de 80 noeuds avec des rafales à 120++ km/h sont produisent.
Vents du Nord-Ouest derrière Leslie ne devraient pas être tout à fait aussi
forte à cette époque mais les rafales à 90 ou 100 km/h sont possibles pour les
certaines parties de l’Ouest et du Nord de Terre-Neuve. En Nouvelle-Écosse le
des vents plus forts derrière la tempête sera au Cap-Breton où rafales
à 80 km/h sont attendus ce matin.

Les effets de vent incluent les quelques arbres dommages amd dommages mineurs à certains
structuresn, tout particulièrement à l’est de Terre-Neuve avec des rafales de vent
plus de 120 km/h. Cela continuera de plomb de cables au sol et
certains dommages à la propriété.
B. pluie.

Le système frontal lent a déjà saturées de parties de Nova
Nouvelle-Écosse, l’île et ouest de Terre-Neuve, avec certains secteurs déjà
recevoir bien plus de 100 millimètres. Les montants plus élevés
actuellement déclarées pour Newfoundland sont de 40 à 60 millimètres
gamme pour l’ouest de Terre-Neuve, avec les plus attendus. Modèles informatiques
et de l’expérience avec les systèmes tropicaux dans le dernier spectacle de fusion
Cet événement-total précipitations de 150 millimètres, avec localement même
quantités plus élevées possibles avant que la pluie se retire de la Newfoundland
au cours de l’attrait mardi. L’emplacement des précipitations plus lourde sera
dans les zones à l’ouest de la piste de Leslie et où son humidité interagit
plus forte avec la fosse, qui comprend la centrale et ouest
Terre-Neuve.

Les impacts des précipitations de cette tempête incluent la possibilité de la rue
inondations, érosion de la propriété et lavages de routes et de ponts. Dangers pour
les automobilistes comprennent la visibilité réduite, aquaplanage, inondée
sections de la route, et possible compromis plates-formes des routes et des ponts.

C. surge et vagues.

Et augmentant il y a eu certaines ondes accompagnement Leslie
arrivée ce matin mais les marées coïncide le long du Sud
côte ont gardé des niveaux d’eau assez modéré.

Grosses vagues de longue périodes sont produisent au sud de Terre-Neuve et
près de la côte est. Des vagues de 4 à 7 m sont prévues pour la
côte sud-ouest de Terre-Neuve à 8-12 mètres pour les
Région de la baie Placentia puis diminuant de 5 à 8 mètres est de la
La péninsule d’Avalon. Onde supérieure à 10 mètres ont déjà eu lieu
sur la baie de plaisance. Ces ondes devrait diminuer en après-midi le long de la
côte sud et la baie de plaisance, mais persistent jusqu’au plus tard dans les
après-midi ou en soirée pour la côte est.

Ces lourds martèlement des vagues conduira à des niveaux élevés d’eaux et
certains l’érosion côtière et la possibilité d’inondations localisées dans
zones exposées ou vulnérables surtout de l’est de la Fortune à Cap
Course.

3. Marine météo sur les impacts et résumé des avertissements.

Avertissements de vents de force ouragan sont en vigueur pour la marine de la Newfoundland
eaux à l’est de la piste. Les avertissements de tempête et gale sont dans
effet des eaux adjacentes à Terre-Neuve et Maritimes de l’est
eaux. Plus de détails se trouvent dans les dernières prévisions marines délivrées
de l’Atlantique storm prediction center et la Terre-Neuve et
Bureau météorologique de Labrador.

Impacts côtiers comprennent les dommages possibles aux quais et submersion dans les vagues
régions sujettes à autour de l’Avalon du Sud, la baie de plaisance et le Burin
Péninsule.

Visitez le Bureau météorologique.Gc.ca/Hurricane (tout en minuscules) pour la
plus récents :

-prévision de position, tableau de pression centrale.

-Force et tableau de prévisions de vent rayons.

-Ouragan sur piste renseignements sur la carte.

-discussion technique.

Veuillez également consulter les prévisions publiques et marines et avertissements
émises par Environnement Canada pour votre région.

FIN/MERCER/FOGARTY

 

Newfoundland Power: STAY AWAY from trees and downed power lines. Power lines should be considered “live” and extremely dangerous. Do not try to move.

WWCN16 CWHX 111324
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:54 AM NDT TUESDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND...

WIND WARNING FOR:
      ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
      AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
      CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA PENINSULA
      TERRA NOVA
      BONAVISTA NORTH
      BAY OF EXPLOITS
      BURIN PENINSULA
      CONNAIGRE
      BURGEO - RAMEA.

      WIND GUSTS OF 120 TO 140 KM/HOUR ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
      PASSAGE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

      THIS IS A WARNING THAT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE OCCURRING
      IN THESE REGIONS.  MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR
      UPDATED STATEMENTS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
      ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
      AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
      CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA PENINSULA
      TERRA NOVA
      BONAVISTA NORTH
      BAY OF EXPLOITS
      BURIN PENINSULA
      CONNAIGRE
      BURGEO - RAMEA.

      TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

      A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
      63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
      HOURS.  BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
      LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
      ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
      AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
      AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
      CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA PENINSULA
      BURIN PENINSULA.

      POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HURRICANE CONDITIONS TODAY.

      A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT
      HURRICANE CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
      AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS ENDED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND...

RAINFALL WARNING ENDED FOR:
      TERRA NOVA
      GANDER AND VICINITY
      BONAVISTA NORTH
      BAY OF EXPLOITS
      GREEN BAY - WHITE BAY
      GRAND FALLS-WINDSOR AND VICINITY
      BUCHANS AND THE INTERIOR
      CONNAIGRE
      BURGEO - RAMEA
      CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES AND VICINITY
      BAY ST. GEORGE
      CORNER BROOK AND VICINITY
      DEER LAKE - HUMBER VALLEY
      GROS MORNE
      PARSON'S POND - HAWKE'S BAY
      PORT SAUNDERS AND THE STRAITS
      NORTHERN PENINSULA EAST.

      RAIN HAS EASED OR ENDED.  SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ARE
      NOT EXPECTED.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 1100 AM NDT POST-TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND.  LESLIE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA THIS
AFTERNOON.  STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 120 TO 140 KM/H
EAST OF LESLIE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
BEHIND LESLIE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 100 KM/H WILL
DEVELOP.

AS WELL LARGE WAVES AND POUNDING SURF ARE EXPECTED ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST POSITION AND TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/..

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2012 15:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm LESLIE (AL12) currently located near 49.4 N 53.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Greenland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Iceland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 45 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Atlantique N: Tempête Alerte émise à 11 Sep, 2012 15:00 GMT (dernier avertissement)

Tempête tropicale LESLIE (AL12) actuellement situé près de 49,4 n 53,6 w est prévu pour frapper la terre à la likelihood(s) suivante le time (s) de plomb donné :
Country(s) alerte rouge ou province
Canada
probabilité de CAT 1 ou supérieur est actuellement de 35 %
probabilité de TS est 100 % actuellement

Country(s) alerte jaune ou province
Groenland
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 21 heures
Islande
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 45 heures
les îles Féroé
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Écosse
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Irlande
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Irlande du Nord
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Angleterre
probabilité de TS est de 70 % à environ 69 heures
l’île de Man
probabilité de TS est de 65 % à environ 69 heures
City(s) d’alerte jaune et Town(s)
Grand-Sault (48,6 N, 55,4 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % actuellement
De Saint-Jean (47,6 N, 52,7 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % actuellement
Tórshavn (62,0 N, 6,8 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Stornoway (58,3 N, 6,4 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Ullapool (58,0 N, 5.2 W)
probabilité de TS est 100 % à environ 69 heures
Kirkwall (59,0 N, 3,0 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Mèche (58,5 N, 3.1 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Portree (57,5 N, 6.2 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Oban (56,3 N, 5,5 W)
probabilité de TS est de 95 % à environ 69 heures
Reykjavik (64,1 N, 21,9 W)
probabilité de TS est de 90 % à environ 45 heures
Lerwick (60.2 N, 1,2 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Aberdeen (57,2 N, 2.1 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Dundee (56,5 N, 3,0 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Glasgow (55,9 N, 4.3 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Ardara (54,8 N, 8,4 W)
probabilité de TS est de 85 % à environ 69 heures
Édimbourg (55,8 N, 3.1 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Stranraer (55,0 N, 5.0 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Belfast (54,6 N, 5,9 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Sligo (54,3 N, 8,4 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Belmullet (54.2 N, 10,0 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 80 % à environ 69 heures
Workington (54,6 N, 3.4 W)
probabilité de TS est de 65 % à environ 69 heures
Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
probabilité de TS est de 65 % à environ 69 heures
Dublin (53.3 N, 6,3 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 60 % à environ 69 heures
Newcastle (55,0 N, 1,6 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 55 % à environ 69 heures
Holyhead (53.3 N, 4,5 W)
probabilité pour TS est de 55 % à environ 69 heures

Notez que
Red Alert (sévère) est CAT 1 ou supérieur à entre 31 % et 100 % de probabilité.
Alerte jaune (élevée) est CAT 1 ou supérieur à entre 10 % et 30 % de probabilité, ou TS à au-dessus de 50 % de probabilité.
CAT 1 signifie que les vents de force ouragan au moins 74 mph, 119 km/h ou 1 min 64 nœuds soutenue.
TS signifie vents de force tempête tropicale au moins 39 mi/h, 63 km/h ou 1 min 34 nœuds soutenue.

Pour information prévision graphique et de plus amples renseignements, veuillez visiter http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

In Bermuda….
Hotels get ready for Leslie
Elbow Beach sees tourists cancel holidays

By Elizabeth Roberts royalgazette.com

Hotels and businesses are busy getting ready for Tropical Storm Leslie, which could hit Bermuda as a Category 2 hurricane on Sunday.

Some venues have already experienced cancellations.

Sophie Dier, Director of Communications at the Elbow Beach Hotel on South Shore Road, Paget, said around a third of their bookings have been cancelled for this weekend due to the potential arrival of Tropical Storm Leslie.

“We were going to have 62 rooms occupied, but we have now had about 20 room cancellations, so to date we will now only have 42 rooms occupied,” she said.

“Our reservations team is expecting call volume to continue to increase regarding cancellations for this weekend as the storm moves closer.”

Ms Dier added: “Due to the potential threat to Bermuda, Elbow Beach is closely monitoring the path of Tropical Storm Leslie. The hotel has a comprehensive hurricane preparation plan and preliminary precautionary steps are already underway.

“The hotel’s risk management team is liaising with local authorities and continues with preparations for the storm’s arrival to ensure that all possible safety measures are in place.

“All South Shore beaches, including Elbow Beach, are closed to swimmers at this time and we are actively informing our guests of this for their safety. A red ‘no swimming’ flag has been posted at our beach entrance. Our hotel facilities and dining outlets will remain open for as long as possible, depending on the progress of the storm.”

The Mickey’s Bistro and Bar has been damaged by strong waves on the South Shore in the past.

Ms Dier said: “Mickey’s Beach Bistro and Bar will have all removable fixtures and fittings taken away and secured and will then be boarded up to prevent damage from the storm. This will allow us to reopen the restaurant as soon as possible once the storm has passed.”

David Dodwell Jr, resort manager at the The Reefs Hotel and Club on South Shore Road, Southampton, said: “We are in the process of preparing the property to make it as safe as possible during the storm, which will include securing outdoor furniture, etc over the next few days.

“We have not had many guests decide to leave early, as of yet, but we are of course offering as many options as possible to help in any way they need and are making preparations for the guests that do stay through the storm. We haven’t had any official meetings yet with guests, as it is still early, but have information posted on the storm and are answering questions as needed.”

John Harvey of the Bermuda Hotel Association said it is still gathering statistics from its members on the total number of cancellations and rebookings due to the storm.

“It’s still too early to tell but I’m sure those guests who intended to come to Bermuda this weekend are probably reconsidering their vacation and will shortly rebook. Those that are here will be discussing whether to leave as soon as possible,” he said.

However, he believes from past experience that others may decide to stick around and make the best of the storm.

“Some who are booked into central Hamilton hotels may rebook to those on the South Shore to enjoy the view,” he said.

Colonial Insurance said it was staying open until 6pm today and tomorrow so customers can ensure their home and motor insurance policies are up-to-date and adequate to cover any loss due to storm damage. People can call 296-3700 or go to their Reid Street office for help.

Joanne MacPhee, executive director of the Bermuda Chamber of Commerce advised members that a full meeting of the Emergency Measures Organisation, including Chamber representatives, will be held tomorrow.

She encouraged “all members directly involved in the sale of hurricane supplies and services, including our grocers, wholesalers and insurance partners” to note contact information for the Chamber so it can disseminate information to the public before, during, and after the storm.

She added: “Let’s hope this is all precautionary and we sail through Leslie unscathed.”

Northern Ireland: Arvalee School Fire, Omagh ‘suspicious’ – Published 05 Sept 2012 2157Z

Police are treating a major fire which broke out overnight at a special needs school in Omagh, Co Tyrone as suspicious.

(Photo: ulsterherald.com)
Arvalee School and Resource Centre in the early hours of Saturday
(Click photo for source & full story)

Alternative accommodation is being sought for 103 children with learning difficulties after their school was destroyed in an overnight fire.

(Photo: newsletter.co.uk)

The fire broke out at Arvalee School & Resource Centre outside Omagh shortly before midnight on Friday. Over 50 fire-fighters battled the blaze through the early hours of Saturday, however significant damage was caused.

Police and the Fire Service say they are treating the blaze as suspicious. Area commander with the Fire Service, Trevor Ferguson described the damage as extensive. –  Ulster Herald (Link)

(Photo: Kenneth Allen)
Arvalee School, near Omagh
BEFORE THE FIRE

“The cause of the fire is currently under investigation and the level of damage sustained in terms of both building and resources will be assessed over the coming days.

“Board staff are working closely with the Principal of Arvalee School and Resource Centre, Jonathan Gray, and are making every effort to ensure that suitable temporary accommodation is sourced for pupils and staff as soon as possible,” the spokesperson added.

Staff are due to meet with the principal on Monday followed by a meeting with pupils’ parents on Tuesday. – UTV (Link)

(Photo: ulsterherald.com)
Arvalee School
AFTER THE FIRE
(Click photo for source & full story)

Update 03 Sept 2012:

Ryan McAleer (Tyrone based journalist with the Ulster Herald):

Initial Arvalee fire investigation ‘inconclusive’ – Tyrone Herald http://fb.me/28klVStYZ

Police have said no breaches of Arvalee School or perimeter found. No definite cause for fire can be given until all tests completed- PSNI

Update 05 Sept 2012:

Ryan McAleer (Tyrone based journalist with the Ulster Herald):

No evidence of a crime at Arvalee School, but nothing being ruled out says the lead investigator in the case

UK flash flooding after more than a month’s worth of rain fell in 24 hours – 24 June 2012 1306 GMT/UTC

Torrential downpours have brought flooding to swaths of northern England, forcing people to leave their homes as more than a month’s worth of rain fell in 24 hours.

An 80-year-old man was hospitalised with serious internal injuries following a collision in heavy rain in the Scottish Borders on Friday afternoon.

In the West Yorkshire village of Mytholmroyd, the river Calder burst its banks at about 9pm, leaving many homes and businesses under water.

Simon Young, a local councillor, said it was “a pretty devastating picture. I’ve spoken to a lot of people, a lot of whom have lived in the area for years, and they cannot remember anything like this in the last 24 years. It’s going to be a pretty big clean-up operation.”

The deluges also battered revellers at the Isle of Wight Festival and brought havoc to Cumbria which buckled under the worst of the wet weather. Up to 100mm of rain hit the region overnight, while south-west Scotland, Northern Ireland and Lancashire also experienced unusually heavy rainfall.

The Environment Agency issued around 140 flood warnings and alerts in northern regions which are also subject to Met Office severe weather warnings. Some families spent the night in temporary accommodation after they were evacuated from properties in Lancashire when rivers burst their banks.

They were taken to the nearby Darwen Leisure Centre after fleeing homes in Croston and Darwen, near Chorley, but were expected to return today.

 In Wigan, fire crews helped a number of residents leave their homes using a rescue boat after waist-deep water flooded homes and the RSPCA called firefighters to assist in the rescue of a number of animals from a flooded allotment, including six horses and four dogs.

Forecasters said water levels would begin to recede but further showers are expected to slow the clear-up process, meaning some areas will remain swamped.

However, the adverse conditions are set to improve – with the possibility of sunshine for festival-goers on Sunday.

Matt Dobson, senior forecaster at MeteoGroup, the weather division of the Press Association, said Borrowdale in Cumbria bore the brunt of the bad weather, with an estimated 100mm of rain.

“It has been exceptionally wet overnight across Cumbria,” he said.

“By the end of the night, it is fair to say that probably 70mm-100mm fell over 24 hours which is a month’s worth of rain. It looks like the worst is probably now over for Cumbria.

There will still be some showers today and overnight but it is not going to be anywhere near as bad as it has been.

The worst weather today is going to be across Scotland, where there is likely to be further heavy rain or thunder storms.

But the good news is the Isle of Wight is likely to have a dry day.”

Rain brought chaos to parts of the country yesterday, flooding more than 70 homes.

Croston was said to have become an “island” and homes were evacuated as the local authority handed out sandbags and a shelter was set up at the village’s Bishop Rawstorne School.

Localised flashflooding also hit households in Greater Manchester where water was said to be waist height in some areas.

Firefighters were called in to clear floodwater in Wigan, helping three people and a dog away from their properties by boat.

The Olympic torch relay was also hit by the weather with organisers forced to cancel an outdoor event in Blackpool.

But the outlook is more promising in the coming days.

A band of wet weather is expected to sweep the country tonight, moving from West to East.

Forecasts suggest it will pass relatively quickly, meaning no one place should see more than five hours of rain.

Amounts of between 10mm-15mm are expected to fall quite widely before clearing in many areas today, with much of the country expected to see a dry day on Monday.

 Sunday, 24 June, 2012 at 05:08 (05:08 AM) UTC RSOE

14-year-old boy with Asperger syndrome beaten up for being Jewish

Carrickfergus College

Police are investigating a report that a 14-year-old boy with Asperger syndrome was attacked by school bullies because of his Jewish heritage.

Matthew Lough said he has been subjected to physical attacks and anti-semitic abuse at Carrickfergus College in County Antrim.

The PSNI has confirmed they are investigating an assault which took place on 14 March.

Carrickfergus College was not available for comment.

The schoolboy said the abuse began shortly after he revealed that his great-grandmother was Jewish during a lesson about the Holocaust.

He said he was later “punched in the head and thrown to the ground” during a PE exercise outside the school grounds.

Suspensions

Matthew also said the bullies had attached swastikas to his school bag and called him anti-semitic names.

“It kind of annoyed me and upset me but the real truck was when I was attacked in the woods during an orienteering exercise in PE,” he said.

“The guy was suspended for five days.”

“This year, it was a guy who was singing a song about how Hitler had gassed 6.5 million Jews, all happy and do-lallies.”

His mother, Sharon Lough, said the school had responded to their complaints and had taken action through suspensions and detentions.

But she said she was still concerned about her son because the name-calling had continued despite the suspension of two pupils.

“We encourage Matthew to live, as much as he can. Aspergers does not change who he has ever been,” she said.

We don’t want him to be considered as a special case. He is a very intelligent child and very loving and very caring about people around him.”

‘React to bullying’

“Even though he has been bullied over the years, that wouldn’t stop him from standing up for another pupil and that’s the kind of child he is and we are so proud of him for that.”

She said the head master was quick to react to the bullying. “The lad who was responsible for the ganging-up was suspended,” she added.

“Matthew didn’t have any injuries from that and the other other lads involved with the swastikas were put in detention over a period and it seemed to die down.

We were very pleased with the school and the fact that they were so responsive.

We have always been very happy with the school. We are a bit concerned at the minute becausethere are other lads who are still continuing with name-calling.”

“He has been very unsettled at night-time, having nightmares. “I would never, ever tell my children not to mention their heritage, because they are so proud of it. I would never deny my Jewish heritage, never.”

In a statement the North Eastern Education and Library Board (NEELB) said it had been assured by the school that they had fully and properly followed board regulations for regarding the suspension of pupils.

The board said the school had also acted within its own anti-bullying policy.