UK: Ex Bertha bringing wet and windy weather on Sunday, says Met Office – Published 080814 1719z (GMT)

#UK #SEVERE #WEATHER, #FLOOD WARNINGS and #TORRO #TORNADO WATCH. #Bertha #UKstorm #FloodAware #Wx #News… http://t.co/fIcYIK4jr5

— Goaty’s News (UK) (@Goatys_News) August 9, 2014

8 August 2014 – The remnants of Hurricane Bertha will continue to track towards the UK during the next few days.

“The Met Office has been assessing the likelihood of the UK seeing any effects from Bertha by using our own forecast models alongside models from other world-leading forecast centres.

At the moment southern parts of the UK look as though they are most at risk during Sunday, followed by areas of northeast Scotland on Monday. However, there is also the possibility that the depression could move across northern France as a weak feature.

Bertha storm tracks Possible storm tracks for ex Bertha on Sunday   Bertha Impacts Likely impacts from ex Bertha on Sunday

The transition of Bertha from a tropical to an extra-tropical feature is a particularly hard one to forecast but there is increasing confidence that this feature will affect the UK on Sunday, though with very large uncertainty remaining over the track and intensity.

Chief Meteorologist, Paul Gundersen, said: “There is still some uncertainty surrounding this weekend’s weather, with the potential for heavy rainfall, strong coastal winds and large waves on Sunday. However, there is still a chance that the system may pass to the south of the country giving the UK a brighter day.

“Rain and strong winds may well bring disruption, especially across southern parts of the UK, with the potential for more than 50 mm of rain and coastal gusts of over 60 mph. People should stay up to date with the latest Met Office warnings.”

Craig Woolhouse, Environment Agency Flood Risk Manager, said: “Heavy rain on Sunday may lead to localised surface water flooding in some parts of England and Wales. On Sunday and Monday a combination of high spring tides and strong westerly winds bring a risk of large waves and spray and possible flooding to the south west coast of England and along the Severn Estuary. However, the forecast remains uncertain so we advise people to regularly check the flood risk situation over the next few days.

“If you’re travelling to or from holiday then check your flood risk before setting off and don’t drive through flood waters.

“The Environment Agency is continuing to monitor the situation closely along with the Met Office and local authorities. People can sign up to receive free flood warnings, check their flood risk and keep up to date with the latest situation on the GOV.UK website to  check if you are at risk of flooding or follow @EnvAgency and #floodaware on Twitter for the latest flood updates.”

Jeremy Parr, Head of Flood Risk Management, Natural Resources Wales, said: “Our officers will be monitoring forecasts closely over the weekend as the situation in Wales becomes clearer but in the meantime we are advising people to remain alert.

“We are likely to see some very heavy rain on Sunday into Monday, and combined with strong winds and high spring tides, conditions along the coast could be dangerous.  As the forecast remains unsettled, we are advising people to keep an eye on weather forecasts and check the latest flood alerts on our website.”

Ross Macloed,  RNLI Coastal Safety Manager, said: “Extreme wave heights combined with high tides can make some normal coastal activities we take for granted significantly more risky; the force of surging water or breaking waves can easily knock you over and quickly drag you out of your depth and once in the water it can be difficult to get out. As little as one cubic metre of water weighs a tonne and shows that you should never underestimate how powerful the sea can be.

“If you are planning a coastal activity, our advice is to respect the water, and watch the shore from a safe distance and assess the conditions; think about the risk before deciding if  you need to go closer.”

Met Office records show that there are similar examples of intense low pressure systems occurring in August, for example, the 24 August 2005 where an active storm sat off the northwest coast of Scotland bringing strong winds and heavy rain. On the 30 August 1992 a depression swung up from the southwest across the UK giving a wet and windy Bank Holiday weekend.

We will be keeping an eye on the latest outlook for the weather over the next few days and the progress of ex Bertha to keep everyone up to date with the latest information.

Last updated: 8 August 2014″ –  Met Office

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India/Bay of Bengal: Depression(IMD)/Tropical Cyclone 4B HELEN 192100Z nr 15.1N 83.9E, moving W at 7 knots (JTWC)

CYCLONIC STORM HELEN (RSMC NEW DELHI)

Tropical Cyclone 04B (HELEN)(JTWC)

Up to 10.1 million people people can be affected by wind speeds of tropical storm strength or above. In addition, 1.3 million people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge. - GDACS

“(Helen) forecast to make landfall as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with winds gusting up to 120kph. Or about the equivalent of Typhoon Strength Gust.” – Westernpacificweather

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM HELEN ADVISORY NO. TWO ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF
20TH NOVEMBER 2013 BASED ON 0600UTC CHARTS of 20TH NOVEMBER 2013.

THE CYCLONIC STORM HELEN OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 6 HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 20
TH
NOVEMBER 2013 NEAR LATITUDE 15.2
0
N AND LONGITUDE 84.0
0
E, ABOUT 470 KM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279), 430 KM EAST OF KAVALI (43243), 320 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MACHILIPATNAM (43185) AND 290 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149).
THE SYSTEM WOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HRS. IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME, THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND CROSS SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN SRIHARIKOTA
(ANDHRA PRADESH) AND ONGOLE (43221), CLOSE TO KAVALI AROUND NIGHT OF 21
ST
NOVEMBER 2013.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 2.5.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUD EMBEDDED WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT 13.5
0
N AND 18.0
0
N LONG 82.0
0
E AND
86.0
0
E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -80
0
C.CONVECTIVE BANDING
IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTRE HAS ORGANISED AND CONSOLIDATED FURTHER DURING PAST 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA.
T
RACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
Date/Time(UTC)
Position
(Lat.
0
N/ long.
0
E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (kmph)
Category
20
-11-2013/0600
15.2/84.0
70-80 GUSTING TO 90
CYCLONIC STORM
20
-11-2013/1200
15.4/83.5
75-85 GUSTING TO 95
CYCLONIC STORM
20
-11-2013/1800
15.4/83.0
85-95 GUSTING TO 105
CYCLONIC STORM
21
-11-2013/0000
15.2/82.5
90-100 GUSTING TO 110
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
21
-11-2013/0600
15.0/82.0
95-105 GUSTING TO 115
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
21
-11-2013/1800
14.8/80.8
100-110 GUSTING TO 120
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
22
-11-2013/0600
14.7/79.5
80-90 GUSTING TO 100
CYCLONIC STORM
22
-11-2013/1800
14.6/78.2
55-65 GUSTING TO 75
DEEP DEPRESSION
23-11-2013/060
0
14.5/77.0
40-50 GUSTING TO 60
DEPRESSION
REMARKS:
THE SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED BY DWR- MACHILIPATNAM, VISAKHAPATNAM
AND CHENNAI. ACCORDING TO THESE RADARS, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N AND
84.0E AT 0600 UTC. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS NEAR 13.5N AND 84.0E SHOW MSLP OF 1007.3
HPA AND WINDS OF 270/16 KTS.
THE CYCLONIC STORM HELEN LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE WHICH RUNS ALONG 17
0
N. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONGWITH LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE VORTICITY ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THEY HAVE INCREASED
DURING PAST 12 HRS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 28-29
0
C. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND IS LOW TO MODERATE (05-15 KNOTS).
DIVERGENCE IN NWP MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO LANDFALL
POINT AND TIME, AS THE TRACK FORECAST VARIES FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. WITH RESPECT TO INTENSIFICATION, THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS SUGGESTING
SLOW INTENSIFICATION OR NO INTENSIFICATION. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON
CONSENSUS NWP AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS.NSUS NWP AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0413.gif

 

WTIO31 PGTW 200900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (HELEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (HELEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
200600Z — NEAR 15.3N 84.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 84.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 15.5N 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 15.7N 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 15.8N 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 15.8N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 15.7N 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 84.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (HELEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT AMSU-B
PASSES (200409Z AND 200733Z) INDICATE DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER
THE LLCC AND WITHIN THE MAIN FEEDER BAND TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASSES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PGTW CENTER FIX LOCATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
AND PERSISTENCE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45-55 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HELEN
IS LOCATED NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE AT 15-20 KNOTS. DIVERGENCE IS CONTAINED IN THE
POLEWARD DIRECTION AS OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
PROVIDES THE LARGEST SOURCE OF EXHAUST. TC HELEN HAS MAINTAINED SLOW
TRACK SPEEDS DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS AS IT MEANDERS NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THESE SLOW TRACK SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK WITHIN
THE WEAKNESS. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND STEER TC HELEN ON A MORE WESTWARDS TRACK AFTER
TAU 24. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 IS EXPECTED AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BATTLES THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS
BUT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DROP-OFF BY TAU 36 AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIFURCATION AMONGST
MODEL TRACKERS WITH THE WEAKER VORTEX CLUSTER (ECMF, NVGM, GFDN,
EGRR) TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE STRONGER VORTEX CLUSTER (AVNO,
HWRF, CTCX) TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD. THE CURRENT
FORECAST DIFFERS FROM PREVIOUS BASED ON LAST 18 HOUR PERSISTENCE OF
SLOW TRACK SPEEDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE, THE TIMING OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY NOW FAVORS THE TRACKERS THAT
DEPICT A STRONGER VORTEX AND SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN MODEL TRACKERS, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN

 

TSR logoN Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 20 Nov, 2013 6:00 GMT

 

 

Tropical Storm HELEN (04B) currently located near 15.3 N 84.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

 

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

https://i0.wp.com/old.gdacs.org/images/gdacs_logo_small.png

 

Automatic impact report for tropical cyclone HELEN-13

alertimage

Green alert for wind impact in India

This tropical cyclone is expected to have a low humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path.

 

Current storm status

 

This report is for advisory number 4 of tropical cyclone HELEN-13 issued at 11/20/2013 6:00:00 AM (GDACS Event ID 41389, Latest episode ID: 4).

 

Current impact estimate:

 

  • Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0
  • Tropical Storm (maximum wind speed of 111 km/h)
  • Vulnerability of affected countries: High

 

Impact of Extreme Wind

 

Cloud map
Cloud map. The map shows the areas affected by tropical storm strength winds (green), 58mph winds (orange) and cyclone wind strengths (red). (Source: JRC)

Affected population

Up to 10.1 million people people can be affected by wind speeds of tropical storm strength or above. In addition, 1.3 million people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.

Affected provinces

Country Region/Province Population
India Andhra Pradesh 70.2 million people
India Pondicherry 850000 people

Affected cities

Name Region/Province Country City class Population
Kandukur Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]
Bhimavaram Andhra Pradesh India City 130000 people
Narasapur Andhra Pradesh India City 59000 people
Gudivada Andhra Pradesh India City 7200 people
Guntur Andhra Pradesh India City 510000 people
Tenali Andhra Pradesh India City 150000 people
Narasaropet Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]
Machilipatnam Andhra Pradesh India City 180000 people
Bapatla Andhra Pradesh India City 68000 people
Nizampatam Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]
Chirala Andhra Pradesh India City 86000 people
Ongole Andhra Pradesh India City 170000 people
Kottapatnam Andhra Pradesh India City [unknown]

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

See complete report

 

WesternPacificWeather.com

“The western pacific may be quite but Cyclone Helen has now formed over the bay of Bengal. It is forecasted to make landfall as a severe Cyclonic storm with winds gusting up to 120kph. Or about the equivalent of Typhoon Strength Gust.” – Westernpacificweather

 

MARITIME

 

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0134

WTIN01 DEMS 200134
SHIPPING BULLETINE FOR MET. AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HRS FROM 0100 UTC OF 20-11-2013.
—————————————————————
THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IT FURTHER MOVED WESTWARD AND
LAY CENTRED AT 2330 HRS IST OF 19TH NOVEMBER 2013 NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 N AND LONGITUDE 84.5 E(.)
THE SYSTEM WOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM
DURING NEXT 24 HRS. IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME
TIME, THEN WESTSOUTHWESTWARD (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

 

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Tamil Nadu

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry

High wind waves in the range of 2.5 – 3 meters are predicted during 02:30 hrs on 19-11-2013 to 23:30 hrs on 20-11-2013 along the Kolacahl to kilakarai of Southern Tamil Nadu.
images
Significant Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Kolachal

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

Issue Date :19/11/2013 Region : Andhra Pradesh

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Vizag

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m 4.0m) off Andhra Pradesh coast (Nellore to Srikakulam) during 1730 hrs of 19-11-2013 To 2330 hrs of 21-11-2013. At the Amalapuram coast, the maximum waves (nearly 4 ) Would be experienced during 21-11-2013, 1730 hrs.

Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal Andhra Pradesh commencing from 20st November 2013 night.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off Andhra Pradesh coast commencing from 20th November 2013 night.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into Sea off Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen out at sea off Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised to return to the coast.

Tide Predictions

Vishakapatnam

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Andaman

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Portblair

High wind waves in the range of 2.5-3.0 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 18-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 19-11-2013 along the west coast of Andaman Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Coco Channel.

Tide Predictions

Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Kerala

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Kozhikode

High wind waves in the range of 2.5 3.0 meters are forecasted during 0230 hours on 19-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 20-11-2013 along the Kerala coast between Vilinjam to Kasargod.
images
Significant Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Vizhinjam

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Lakshadweep

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Agatti

High wind waves in the range of 2.5-3.0 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 18-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 19-11-2013 along Lakshadweep Islands between Minicoy to Bitra
images
Significant Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Minicoy

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :19/11/2013 Region : Tamil Nadu

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m – 3.0m) off Puducheery aand Tamil Nadu coasts (Nagapattinam to Chennai) during 1730 hrs of 19-11-2013 to 2330 hrs of 21-11-2013.

Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over north coastal Tamil Nadu commencing from 20st November 2013 night.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu coast commencing from 20th November 2013 night.

Fishermen along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast are advised to be cautious while going into sea.

Tide Predictions

Pondichery

High Wind-Wave Watch

 

Issue Date :18-11-2013 Region : Nicobar
High wind waves in the range of 2.5-3.0 meters are forecasted during 1730 hours on 18-11-2013 to 2330 hours of 19-11-2013 along the west coast of Nicobar Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Great Channel.

null

Tide Predictions

Car-Nicobar

images
AVHRR Image

 

 

India: Depression (IMD)/ Tropical cyclone 30W 160900Z near 10.8N 79.9E moving WNW at 9 knots (JTWC) crossed Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam (RSMC New Delhi) – 161113 1155z OUTDATED see http://wp.me/p2k2mU-29R

MOST INFORMATION ON THIS PAGE IS NOW OUT OF DATE

The latest Tropical Cyclone information at this time (12th June 2014) can be found here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/indian-ocean-india-tropical-cyclone-developing-invest-95a-091230z-nr-13-6n-68-1e-moving-ne-at-10-knots-jtwc-published-090614-1815z/

More generally here: https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/category/severe-weather/

The following information left here for historic research purposes:

Depression (RSMC New Delhi)

Tropical Cyclone 30W (JTWC)

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS�RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-11-2013
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 16 NOVEMBER, 2013
BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 16 NOVEMBER, 2013.
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS AND
CROSSED TAMIL NADU COAST NEAR NAGAPATTINAM (43147) BETWEEN 0700 AND 0800 UTC AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 16
TH
NOVEMBER 2013 NEAR LATITUDE 11.0
0
N AND
LONGITUDE 79.5
0
E, ABOUT 40 KM WEST OF NAGAPATTINAM (43147). THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE
AREA DURING NEXT 24HRS
.
.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS EMBEDDED
WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER NORTH TAMILNADU, SOUTH
INTERIOR KARNATAKA, SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH RAYALSEEMA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY AND SOUTH AANDHRA PRADESH
COASTS.
THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM

Cyclone Warning For Indian Coast

Time of issue: 1530 hours IST
Dated: 16-11-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB05/2013/19
Sub: Depression crossed Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam
The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards crossed
Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam between 1230 and 1330 hrs IST and lay
centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 16
th
November 2013 near latitude 11.0
0
N and
longitude 79.5
0
E, about 40 km west of Nagapattinam. The system would move west-
northwestwards and weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area during
next 24hrs.
Warning for north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh
(i)
Rainfall
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a
few places would occur over north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 24
hours and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur during subsequent
24 hrs. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would
occur over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during next 48 hrs.
Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over south
Tamilnadu and south interior Karnataka during next 48 hrs.
(ii)
Squally/Gale Winds
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail
along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast
during next 12 hours. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60
kmph would also prevail along and off south Tamil Nadu coast during the same
period.
(iii)
Sea condition
Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry
and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 12 hrs.
(iv)
Action Suggested
Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 12 hrs.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 16
th
November, 2013.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/30W_131300sams.jpg

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp3013.gif

WTIO32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 017�
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 10.8N 80.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 80.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 10.9N 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 79.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE
BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED WESTWARD OVER LAND AND
RAPIDLY ERODING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS, WHICH IS NOW
BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD, IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 30W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR NAGAPATTINAM, SOUTHEASTERN INDIA AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND WITHIN 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z
IS 10 FEET.�� //
NNNN

TSR logoNW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Nov, 2013 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

 

Storm Tracker Map

Tropical Depression THIRTY (30W) currently located near 10.8 N 80.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
��������probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
�Nagappattinam (10.8 N, 79.8 E)
��������probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0900

FQIN01 DEMS 160900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 16 NOVEMBER 2013
—————————————————————
PART I:- NO STORM WARNING(.)

PART II :-� THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
��������������� PERSISTD� AND LIKELY TO CROSSED EAST COAST OF SOUTH
INDIA
��������������� BY 16TH EVENING (.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)

ARB: A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY� TO THE S OF 05 DEG
N(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 M (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOUR
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY� TO THE S OF 05 DEG
N(.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-0.5-1 M (.)

A2 ARABIAN SEA :-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:- NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:- NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M (.)
BOB:A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WNW-LY 05/10 KTS
2)N OF 05 DEG N:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SSE-LY TO THE W
OF
90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA SCATTRED(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M� (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)S OF 05 DEG N:-WNW-LY 05/10 KTS
2)N OF 05 DEG N:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SSE-LY TO THE W
OF
90 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA SCATTRED(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)
REST AREA 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M� (.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS (.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARMENT=

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

Issue Date :�15-11-2013 ������������������������������������� Region : �Tamil Nadu 

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : �����Pondicherry

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m – 4.0m) off Tamil Nadu (Nagapattinam to Chennai) and Puducherry coasts during 1730 hrs of 15-11-2013 to 0530 hrs of 17-11-2013. 

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated extremely heavy rainfall (?25 cm) would occur over north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from tonight. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls would occur over north Tamil Nadu on 16th & 17th November. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would occur over south Tamil Nadu on 16th and 17th November, 2013.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast commencing from tonight. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would also prevail along and off south Tamil Nadu coast commencing from tonight.

� Fishermen out at sea off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts are advised to return to the coast. � Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts.

Tide Predictions

Nagapatnam

High Wind-Wave Alert

 

Issue Date :�15-11-2013 ������������������������������������� Region : �Andhra Pradesh 

Comparisions of wave forecast with Observations : �����Vizag

Sea condition will be rough (Significant Wave Height between 2.5m – 4.0m) off South Andhra coasts (Nellore to Kakinada) during 1730 hrs of 15-11-2013 to 0530 hrs of 17-11-2013. 

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places on 16th and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall on 17th November would occur over south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail off south Andhra Pradesh coast commencing from tonight.

Fishermen out at sea off south Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised to return to the coast.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea off south Andhra Pradesh coasts.

Tide Predictions

Kakinada

images
AVHRR Image

One in five households relying on loans and savings to pay for food bills

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Rashness & Rumination: New Understanding About the Roots of Depression

Healthline : Power of Intelligent Health
the Effects of
depression
on the Body

Depression is a mental disorder, but it can affect your physical health and well-being.

Image

Overwhelming Sadness
Cognitive Changes
Clinginess
Weight Problems
Constricted Blood Vessels
Weakened Immune System
Emptiness or Hopelessness
Preoccupation with Death
Aches and Pains
Poor Appetite
Heart Attack Outcome

The Effects of Depression on the Body

We all feel sad or anxious at times. It’s a normal part of life. However, clinical depression does interfere with your ability to function. Depression affects how you feel and can also cause changes throughout your body. Major depression is a serious medical condition that has a dramatic effect on your quality of life.

According to the National Institute of Mental Health, about 6.7 percent of adults in the United States have depression. People with depression often develop other health issues as well. Major depression is also called major depressive illness or clinical depression.

Central Nervous System

Depression can cause a lot of symptoms, many of which are easy to dismiss or ignore. It may be especially difficult to detect in children, who can’t articulate their symptoms, or in older adults, who may blame their symptoms on aging.

Symptoms of depression include overwhelming sadness, grief, and a sense of guilt. People with depression often complain about feeling tired all the time. They also tend to have trouble sleeping. Other symptoms include irritability, anger, and loss of interest in things that used to bring pleasure, including sex. It may be described as a feeling of emptiness or hopelessness. Some people may find it difficult to put these feelings into words. Frequent episodes of crying may be a sign of depression, but not everyone who is depressed cries.

Other symptoms include inability to concentrate, memory problems, and difficulty making decisions. People with depression may have trouble maintaining a normal work schedule or fulfill social obligations.

Some people who are depressed may use alcohol or drugs. They may become reckless or abusive. A depressed person may consciously avoid talking about it or try to mask the problem. People suffering from depression may be preoccupied with thoughts of death or hurting themselves. There’s an increased risk of suicide.

Children get depressed, too. Signs include clinginess, worry, and unwillingness to attend school. Children may be excessively irritable and negative.

Depression can cause headaches, chronic body aches, and pain that may not respond to medication.

Digestive System

Depression can affect the appetite. Some people cope by overeating or binging. This can lead to weight and obesity-related illnesses like type 2 diabetes. Others lose their appetite or fail to eat nutritious food. Eating problems can lead to stomachaches, cramps, constipation, or malnutrition. Symptoms may not improve with medication.

Cardiovascular and Immune Systems

Depression and stress are closely related. Stress hormones speed heart rate and make blood vessels tighten, putting your body in a prolonged state of emergency. Over time, this can lead to heart disease.

According to Harvard Medical School, patients who are depressed when hospitalized for a heart condition are two to five times likelier to have severe chest pain, heart attack, or stroke, in the next year. Recurrence of cardiovascular problems is linked more closely to depression than to smoking, diabetes, high blood pressure, or high cholesterol. Untreated, depression raises the risk of dying after a heart attack. Heart disease is also a trigger for depression.

Depression and stress may have a negative impact on the immune system, making you more vulnerable to infections and diseases.

(The Effects of Depression on the Body

Written by Ann Pietrangelo | Published on September 30, 2014
Medically Reviewed by George Krucik, MD, MBA on September 30, 2014)

http://www.healthline.com

Health & Family

Two studies explore some of the developmental roots of depression in childhood and adolescence.

In the first study, published in the journal Clinical Psychological Science, researchers focused on depressive rumination, or the relentless focus on what has gone wrong or will go wrong, coupled with an inability to see a solution to these overwhelming problems. It’s no surprise that rumination has a strong connection to depression— in fact, studies show that some talk therapies can actually make depression worse by compelling people to focus on problems and their origins, rather than guiding them toward positive solutions on what to do about them.

MOREHow Childhood Trauma May Make the Brain Vulnerable to Addiction, Depression

To better understand what role rumination might play in seeding depression to begin with, however, the researchers, led by Mollie Moore at the University of Wisconsin-Madison studied 756 young adolescent twins, aged 12 to 14…

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UK Government Calls Gay ‘Cure’ Therapy Harmful

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Mental Health & Debt Advice – Published 13 July 2012 1622 GMT/UTC

Copied from the respected advice site moneysavingexpert.com

Free Mental Health & Debt 2012 booklet – you’re not alone
Mental health and debt are a marriage made in hell | Info & tips to help you and your family

Mental health issues can cause severe debt, and severe debt’s a catalyst for mental health problems. When we first launched our booklet, many told us of their relief realising they weren’t alone. Annually, one in four have mental health issues and Mind reports 75% say it makes their debt worse. So we believe it needs treating as a mainstream money issue.

  • mental healthNew free Mental Health & Debt booklet – updated for 2012. Download the 44-page
    Mental Health & Debt Help 2012 PDF booklet (thanks to charities Mind, Rethink, CAPUK & others for help). It’s crammed with info on handling debts when unwell, working with banks, where to get help, whether to declare a condition to your bank & more.
  • Who’s it for? Individuals, families, carers, caseworkers of those with anxiety, depression, bipolar and more.
  • Struggling with debts but not mental health? Then you’ll find lots of useful info and free non-profit help in the Debt Problems Help Guide.