UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 16 Nov 2015 2330z (GMT/UTC)

==UK==

STORM BARNEY

SKYWARN

Severe Weather Alert #54 issued (See below)

Met Office Severe Weather Warnings:

Met Office Weather Warnings for mobile

Highlands & Eilean Siar Yellow Warning

Strathclyde Yellow Warning

London & South East England Yellow Warning

East Midlands Yellow Warning

North West England Yellow Warning

South West England Yellow Warning

Yorkshire & Humber Yellow Warning

Orkney & Shetland Yellow Warning

East of England Yellow Warning

Wales Yellow Warning

West Midlands Yellow Warning

North East England Yellow Warning

(For details follow above links)

 20 Flood Warnings in England and Wales – 6 in Scotland

at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

29 Flood Alerts in England and Wales – 5 in Scotland

at 

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

( Check for interim updates in comments at bottom of page)

Severe Weather Warnings for Europe are now toward the bottom of the page

UK Visible Satellite (meteocentre.com)

UK Infra Red Satellite (meteocentre.com)

Weather Radar Europe (meteox.co.uk)

Channel Islands (Jersey) Weather Radar Latest Animation

Jersey Radar also covers much of South/South West of England & N France

CI weather warnings


SkyWarn UK’s mission is to forecast, report, and record severe weather.

SKYWARN UK CURRENT ALERT (Link)

Severe Weather Alert #54
SWUK has issued a Severe Weather Alert for strong winds in excess of 70mph
Valid from 1300hrs Tuesday 17th November to 0300hrs Wednesday 18th November.
for
South and South Western England & Wales
An easterly moving low pressure system (officially named ‘Barney’ by the MetO) will track across southern UK on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wind gusts could exceed SWUK criteria of 70mph along exposed coasts on the southern flank of the low.
Wales and the Bristol Channel could see gusts of 80mph
Spotters in the alert area are requested to report any breaches of SWUK criteria in the normal manner.

For details on SkyWarn UK’s alert criteria, click HERE.

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The latest Severe Weather Reports from TORRO can be found by following this link:

SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST

Report Severe Weather

Torro on Facebook

Latest news reports (see bottom of page)

BBC Weather

Monday

151116

Tuesday

151117

Wednesday

151118

UK Warnings

Warnings

Monday 16 November Published at 16:54

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for NORTHWEST SCOTLAND

Issued at 10:35 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 11:00 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid until 23:55 on Mon 16 Nov

Southwesterly winds will increase during Monday, when severe gales will affect parts of the northwest mainland of Scotland, the Western Isles and Northern Isles. The strongest winds will initially develop across the Western Isles and northwest coast this afternoon before extending into the Northern Isles during the evening. Winds will quickly ease on Tuesday.

Gusts of wind of 65-75 mph are expected in places, so be aware that there may be some further disruption to travel. Additionally, large waves may cause some overtopping of sea defences.

This an update to the warning issued on Sunday morning.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 10:23 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 10:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Tue 17 Nov

Further rain is expected on Tuesday as a frontal system runs across the UK from the west. The largest accumulations are expected across the hills of northwest England and northwest Wales though low lying areas will also see a period of heavy rain. On the southern side of this system some very strong winds are expected and a separate warning for winds is likely to be issued.

The public should be aware that, given the already saturated conditions, flooding is possible either from standing water or from rivers already swollen by recent rainfall. This could lead to disruption to travel and perhaps localised flooding to properties.

This is a further update to the warning originally issued on Friday, reducing the northern extent of the warning and moving into minor impacts.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for much of WALES and SOUTHERN ENGLAND

Issued at 10:46 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 15:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:30 on Tue 17 Nov

West to southwesterly gales and locally severe gales are likely to sweep eastwards across parts of Wales, southern, central and eastern England later on Tuesday. Gusts could reach 60-70 mph inland and possibly 80 mph along exposed coasts, particularly Wales and through the Bristol Channel.

Be aware of the risk of disruption to travel and that gusts of this strength could bring down trees and lead to some damage to weakened structures.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW EARLY WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 12:17 on Sun 15 Nov

Valid from 16:00 on Wed 18 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Wed 18 Nov

Another spell of heavy rain, accompanied by gale force winds in places, will cross the country on Wednesday, with largest rainfall over the high ground areas already saturated from recent wet weather. Up to 50 mm is expected in the wettest spots in North Wales and NW England.

The public should be aware of the potential for further impacts such as disruption to travel and local flooding.

Further updates will appear here.

When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings

Northern Ireland: Addition information available from https://www.facebook.com/northernirelandweather?fref=ts

Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.

What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

Peter Gibbs explains sudden stratospheric warming and why it is often linked to outbreaks of cold weather: Sudden stratospheric warming

What is freezing fog?

UK RADAR AND SATELLITE

Surface Analyses & Observations UK and Europe

https://embed.windyty.com/?surface,wind,now,53.801,3.076,4,,menu,,

Animated map of global wind conditions

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

News at bottom of page

FLOOD WARNINGS & ALERTS

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNING currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

Flood Warning Flood Warning Flooding is expected. Immediate action required

There are 20 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618.aspx

There are 6 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

Flood Alert Flood AlertFlooding is possible. Be prepared.

There are 29 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

There are 5 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline 0845 988 1188

Coastal Forecast

A 24 hour weather forecast for 24 UK coastal areas

Tide Tables

Tidal information supplied by the UK Hydrographic Office

Inshore Waters

There are strong wind warnings in 19 areas.

There is a gale warning in 1 area.

The next few days will be dominated by severeal areas of low pressure tracking across the British Isles bringing strong winds, large waves and changeable weather to all parts.

Shipping Forecast

There are gale warnings in 29 areas.

The general synopsis at midday

Low Bailey 964 expected Norwegian Basin 973 by midday tomorrow. New low expected Shannon 983 by same time.

Extended Outlook

The Extended Outlook aims to signpost expected hazards for the Cullercoats, Niton and Portpatrick areas for the three days beyond the 24 hour shipping forecast.

High Seas

There are storm warnings in 8 areas.

The general synopsis at 16 November 20:00 UTC

At 161200UTC low 60 north 13 west 964 expected 63 north 02 east 973 by 171200UTC. Low 48 north 39 west 987 expected 53 north 12 west 983 by same time. Low 50 north 20 west 998 losing its identity by that time. New low moving slowly east expected 53 north 32 west 988 by 171200UTC

Bermuda/Canada/Atlantic: Hurricane GONZALO CAT1 181500Z 36.8N 61.7W, moving NNE at 22 knots (NHC) – Updated 181014 1643Z

Hurricane GONZALO

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…GONZALO FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR…
ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND…NHC

AFTER MAKING A DIRECT HIT ON BERMUDA LAST EVENING, HURRICANE
GONZALO IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE, NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING..
...CHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 181455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

…GONZALO FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…36.8N 61.7W
ABOUT 355 MI…575 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 815 MI…1310 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH…41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…966 MB…28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR…
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH…41 KM/H. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
DAY AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 90 MPH…150
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES…335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB…28.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS…PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST…BERMUDA…AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

==================================================

BWS – Tropical Update Bulletin
HURRICANE GONZALO
IS A POTENTIAL THREAT TO BERMUDA
Advisory #25, 12 pm Sat, Oct 18, 2014
KEY: Blue = 34-50 kts, Yellow = 50-64 kts, and Red = 64 kts and greater
Diagonal shading indicates fringe winds (34kts or greater surrounding the storm’s core)
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) has passed.
Current Position: 36.8N 61.7W approx. 310 nm NNE of Bermuda
Recent Movement: NNE or 30 degrees at 22 kt
Central Pressure: 966 mb / 28.52 in
Max Winds: 80kt gusts 100kt
In line with NHC updates, Tropical Update Bulletins(TUB) are normally issued every 6 hours. Intermediate advisories may be issued every 3 hours when a tropical watch or warning is in effect (every 2 hours when radar has identified a storm centre). Additionally, TUBs may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone.
Hurricane Track Information
WOCN31 CWHX 181145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:56 AM ADT SATURDAY
18 OCTOBER 2014.
———————————————————————
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR HURRICANE GONZALO.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

AFTER MAKING A DIRECT HIT ON BERMUDA LAST EVENING, HURRICANE
GONZALO IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE, NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 35.8 NORTH 62.5 WEST.

ABOUT 430 KILOMETRES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 157 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 37 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE TRACK COULD RANGE FROM ST.
MARY’S BAY TO ABOUT 150 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE.
THIS REPRESENTS A RANGE OF ABOUT 200 KILOMETRES WITH ABOUT A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STORM CENTRE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN
AVALON PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF AVALON PENINSULA NORTH, BEGINNING TONIGHT.THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE HAS ISSUED RAINFALL WARNINGS
FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA.

A. WIND.

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AVALON
PENINSULA NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO 50
GUSTING TO 80 KM/H.

B. RAINFALL.

MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AS A RESULT
OF GONZALO’S PASSAGE. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL FROM GONZALO IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO WILL BEGIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND END BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. IN THE AREAS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN, RAINFALL RATES OF 25 MILLIMETRES PER HOUR FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LARGEST WAVES WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE IN
THE 5 TO 8 METRE RANGE AND COULD POSSIBLY EXCEED 10 METRES.
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND, WAVES OF 4 TO 6
METRES ARE LIKELY.

OF CONCERN IS THAT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA IS
NEAR DAWN SUNDAY WHICH COULD BE THE APPROXIMATE TIME OF GONZALO’S
PASSAGE. HIGH COASTAL WATER LEVELS AND HIGH WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG
SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL FLOODING MAINLY DUE TO WAVE ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME.

ALSO, THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE OCEAN
SWELLS OF 2 TO 3 METRES BEGINNING TONIGHT AND BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
METRES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED REGARDING THE WAVES AND
HIGH WATER LEVELS.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THIS STORM WILL HAVE HEAVY IMPACTS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MARINE
AREAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS
OF 12 METRES ARE LIKELY OVER SOME OFFSHORE MARINE AREAS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM’S TRACK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT WAVES COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 18 METRES
FROM THE LAURENTIAN FAN INTO THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS, WITH LESSER
WAVE HEIGHTS FURTHER NORTH.

MARINE WARNINGS SUMMARY:

NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS: HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS.
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST, EAST COAST – CAPE
ST. FRANCIS AND SOUTH, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FUNK ISLAND BANK – SOUTHERN HALF.

MARITIMES WATERS: A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAURENTIAN FAN – SOUTHEASTERN HALF. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
LAURENTIAN FAN – NORTHWESTERN HALF AND BANQUEREAU – SOUTHEASTERN
HALF. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE –
SOUTHEASTERN HALF AND BANQUEREAU NORTHWESTERN HALF.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/HATT/MERCER/FOGARTY
_______________________________________________
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Oct, 2014 9:00 GMT

Hurricane GONZALO (AL08) currently located near 34.7 N 63.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wales
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 69 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
    Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
    Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Birmingham (52.5 N, 1.9 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Cardiff (51.5 N, 3.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Lands End (50.1 N, 5.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
    Hull (53.8 N, 0.1 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Weymouth (50.6 N, 2.4 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Torquay (50.3 N, 3.7 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Southampton (50.9 N, 1.4 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Cambridge (52.2 N, 0.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 181454

WTNT23 KNHC 181454
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR…
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 61.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT……. 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT……. 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT…….150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 220SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 61.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.8N 58.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT… 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT…150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 210SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 51.3N 38.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT… 90NE 240SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 53.5N 23.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 240SE 320SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 181603

FZNT01 KWBC 181603
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CCODE/2:31:04:11:00/AOW+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

PAN PAN

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 18
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 19
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 20

.WARNINGS.

..HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE GONZALO NEAR 36.8N 61.7W 966 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18
MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 22 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE…220 NM SW QUADRANT
AND 320 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 47 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL GONZALO NEAR 47.0N
50.5W 980 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE…180 NM SE AND 120 NM SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
180 NM NW…240 NM NE…420 NM SE AND 360 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS
30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT. ALSO WITHIN 300 NM NE…540 NM SE
AND 660 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 25 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL GONZALO E OF AREA NEAR 53.5N
23.5W 993 MB. FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 56N56W 992 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 660 NM NE…420 NM NE
AND 780 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N45W 991 MB. WITHIN 540 NM NW AND 240 NM
NE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N37W 993 MB. WITHIN 720 NM NW AND 420 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS MOVED E OF AREA.

…GALE WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 45N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND 50N57W 991 MB. WITHIN 660 NM S
SEMICIRCLE AND 480 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO
16 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 58N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W WINDS TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT WHERE NOTED WITH HURRICANE GONZALO IN WARNINGS SECTION
ABOVE FROM 31N TO 43N BETWEEN 49W AND 70W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH POST-TROPICAL
GONZALO IN WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.

.FROM 31N TO 66N E OF 46W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 52N E OF 41W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 31N TO 55N E OF 40W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 63N TO 66N E OF 38W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 57N TO 66N E OF 42W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 14 FT.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 43N TO 47N
BETWEEN 53W AND 59W AND FROM 48N TO 56N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 53N BETWEEN 43W AND 57W
AND FROM 49N TO 54N E OF 42W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 41N TO 55N BETWEEN 42W AND 58W.

.HIGH 41N45W 1027 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N38W 1029 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.FORECASTER HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 20.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 29.5N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
12 TO 14 FT. N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 31N74W TO 20N60W TO 20N35W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF LINE 31N59W TO 13N35W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE AND N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NE OF LINE 31N54W TO 20N35W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN N SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
================================================

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 20 Aug 2014 1930z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here:

https://goatysnews.wordpress.com/2014/10/26/uk-severe-weather-and-flood-warnings-updated-26-oct-2014-0751z-gmtutc/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 25 Aug 2014 1717z (GMT/UTC)

Updated here

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-3th

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Signpost to UK SEVERE WEATHER, FLOOD WARNINGS and TORRO TORNADO WATCH – Updated 09 Aug 2014 2325z (GMT/UTC)

EX-Hurricane Bertha

TORRO TORNADO WATCH for much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England, Wales

and the Channel Islands.

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

Valid from 03:00 until 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 22:45GMT on Saturday 9th August 2014

Valid from/until: 03:00- 17:00GMT on Sunday 10th August 2014 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

Much of southern, central, and eastern England, and parts of N England

Wales

Channel Islands

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

DISCUSSION

Deepening Atlantic storm with tropical airmass within its warm sector will cross the watch area during Sunday. Although the exact track is still somewhat uncertain, there are indications from several models that a dual-centred system will evolve. The first centre should move into Wales later tonight, with the main centre crossing SW England and heading NE to Lincs by afternoon, whilst the first centre tends to fill or is consumed by the second.

Strong lifting from a sharpening upper trough should steepen lapse rates enough for embedded convection to develop close to and to the south of both centres of low pressure, with wind shear favourable for severe weather, especially to the south and east of the second, deeper, low pressure area.

A mass of heavy rain is already moving in, and through the latter part of the night, embedded convection may affect parts of Wales and SW England, as the low pressure centre(s) move in. During Sunday morning, as the sharpening upper trough digs into the moist sector, it is possible that a squall line may develop across southern England/E Anglia. Additionally, ahead of the low pressure area moving from SW England to Lincs, convection may develop in the moist sector.

In each of these areas, low-level and deep layer wind shear appears sufficient for severe thunderstorms with strong winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The main caveat with this watch is that the maritime nature of the airmass would typically suggest fairly meagre lapse rates – however, global and mesoscale models indication fairly decent instability associated with this system (~1000J/Kg CAPE). If instability and shear can combine favourably, a strong tornado is possible.

The area from SW England to Lincs, and points south-east of there appear to have a higher risk of severe weather than elsewhere in the watch area. Please note this forecast has been issued early due to the fact the situation will not be monitored by TORRO overnight.

Forecaster: RPK

Torro Tornado Watch 2014/008 (Image: TORRO)

also UK SEVERE WEATHER & FLOOD WARNINGS

http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2Ne

 

Europe: Very dangerous weather – ESTOFEX Storm Forecast: LEVEL 3! for NW France & BENELUX for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornadoes & excessive precipitation – Published 080614 2310z

THIS INFORMATION IS NO LONGER VALID

ESTOFEX Storm Forecast

Embedded image permalink

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 06:00 to Tue 10 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 08 Jun 2014 22:31
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 3 was issued for NW France and BENELUX for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 2 was issued for much of France and NW Germany mainly for very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for England mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for E Germany and Poland mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Russia and Ukraine mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

In between of the deep low over the Atlantic and the ridge over Central Europe, strong southerly to southwesterly flow will advect hot airmass characterised by steep mid-level lapse rates from N Africa towards France, Germany and then around the ridge towards Poland. Potentially dangerous situation will evolve over France, BENELUX and NW Germany just ahead of the diffuse, wavy frontal boundary that will remain quasistationary close to French coastline during the most of the day. Another low will slowly dig SE-wards across NW Russia. Moderate to strong NW-ly flow is simulated at its southwestern flank. With prevailing low geopotentials over much of Eastern Europe, so scattered DMC is expected also there, albeit severe threat will be smaller than in case of France / BENELUX.

DISCUSSION

… France towards BENELUX and NW Germany …

Very dangerous setup will develop over the region by the late afternoon hours. With pronounced overlap of low-level moisture and steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates, models agree on the development of high to extreme CAPE values, with Central France towards BENELUX and NW Germany having the highest odds of seeing 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the late evening. As 500 hPa winds between 15 to 25 m/s overlap with backed low-level flow thanks to the presence of the surface trough, strong DLS (20-25 m/s) is forecast. By the late evening, with the enhancement of the low-level wind field with deepening trough, SREH values will increase especially over NW France / BENELUX (with values over 300 m2/s2 possible). Such setup will be very conducive for intense supercells / bow-echoes, capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Towards the evening (beyond 18 UTC), as LLS strengthens, tornadoes will become a threat as well, especially if isolated supercells manage to persist into this time frame.

However, models do not simulate any pronounced QG forcing to rapidly reduce CIN. This will, on one hand, allow for CAPE to build-up steadily towards the late afternoon. On the other hand, it is highly questionable how many storms will initiate and where exactly. There is considerable disagreement by individual models. Overnight / morning convection, along with the outflow boundaries laid by these may be crucial in this setup. Current thinking is, that the foci for late afternoon initiation will be NW France, along the surface convergence zone, with storms spreading into BENELUX. It is likely that these storms will be isolated supercells at first, with subsequent clustering resulting in a fast forward propagating bow-echo. Towards the night, Southern to Central France may see convective initiation, with another possiblity of MCS travelling north towards N France.

Level 3 was introduced for the region, where the highest probability of high storm coverage is forecast and where high density of extremely severe events is most likely. With that in mind, any spot in the Level 2 may see extremely severe storms in these highly favourable conditions, provided storms can initiate.

… England …

Models show that somewhat warmer, moist airmass should advect over E England as the wave in the frontal boundary propagates towards northwest. However, edge of the EML plume should remain to the east, so that MLCAPE values will stay on the order of hundreds of J/kg. As strong flow ovespreads the region, over 25 m/s of DLS is forecast. All models agree on initiation along the lifting warm wave of the boundary. There will be a potential for isolated supercell development, which would be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. However, lack of steep mid-level lapse rates may limit the hail threat, so that a high-end Lvl 1 instead of Lvl 2 is issued.

… Poland …

As EML is advected around the ridge towards east, overlap with modest low-level moisture will contribute to the development of moderate instability, with MLCAPE values above 1000 J/kg. Vertical wind shear should be moderate, between 10 to 15 m/s of bulk shear in the 0-6 km layer, increasing NEwards to between 14 and 20 m/s. Some strong multicells (or perhaps even brief supercells) may initiate along the ill-defined warm front with attendant threats of large hail and severe wind gusts.

… Russia …

With the progressing cut-off low, a plume of steep lapse rates will be pushed southeastwards, but still, the extreme eastern part of the forecast area may see some stronger multicells capable of large hail and/or severe wind gusts. Wind shear should be weak to moderate, perhaps limiting the supercell threat (and very large hail risk).

Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 10:00 to Tue 10 Jun 2014 15:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Jun 2014 09:48
Forecaster: PUCIK

Abundant DMC activity is already ongoing in the morning hours. Most of this activity is likely elevated with risk for large hail in the environment of steep lapse rates. The first cluster is now situated over Belgium moving towards Netherlands. Second one is located over NW France with similar movement direction. As daytime heating continues ahead of these clusters with easterly to southeasterly moist surface flow (dewpoints between 18 and 20 ーC), this activity may eventually become surface-based, especially at the eastern flank of the systems. That would rapidly increase chances for supercellular convection capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

To the east and south of the ongoing convective systems, diurnal heating along with backing low-level flow is observed. Further backing of the low-level flow is forecast as surface pressure falls over Southern France. Current thinking is that despite this early activity, best conditions will still develop by the late afternoon with high CAPE values and strong DLS.

SEE ALSO:

(Click image for link)

 

 

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Spring has sprung

Official blog of the Met Office news team

Warmer, drier weather is on the way for parts of the country.  As we move through the week a north–south divide develops across the UK with Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England and parts of Wales being changeable and windy. However in the south high pressure will dominate  bringing dry weather for the weekend, with the best of the weather in the Southeast.

Temperatures are expected to reach mid to high teens in the South this weekend (8th – 9th March), while northwest England and Scotland are likely to see spells of strong winds and rain and there is a risk of overnight frosts.

This is in sharp contrast to the record breaking winter we have just experienced.  It was the wettest winter for the UK, England, Wales and Scotland, and the second wettest winter for Northern Ireland in the record series dating from 1910. It was the stormiest…

View original post 138 more words

UK: 760 dead in heatwave – Heat-Health Watch Level 3 – Amber – 180713 1045z

Weather Warning

Thursday 18th July 2013

HEAT-HEALTH WATCH

LEVEL 3 – AMBER

There is a 90% probability of heatwave conditions between 0900 on Thursday and 2100 on Friday in southwest England, West Midlands, London and southeast England.

Southwest England and the West Midlands have been elevated from level 2 to level 3. Southeast England and London remain at level 3.

East Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber and East of England remain at level 2. Northeast England and northwest England remain at level 1.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region.

END

The very young, the elderly and the seriously ill are the groups who are particularly at risk of health problems when the weather is very hot. In particular, very hot weather can make heart and breathing problems worse.

http://www.nhs.uk/livewell/summerhealth/pages/heatwave.aspx

This video suggests precautions you can take so we all can enjoy the summer weekend.

Update:

Heatwave warning extended across England as up to 760 deaths linked to hightemperatures

Homelessness following Halpin

In a society that appears to be becoming more unforgiving and less compassionate the plight of those without a home becomes even more accute

Homelessness affects more than just the individual and is ethically, socially and economically harrowing for all in society. Following years of decline, the 2010 economic downturn has seen an accrual of numbers resulting in a net increase of a third and the reports on Halpin have forced an issue undermined by a lack of media exposure back into the public realm.    

The startling death of Lee Halpin, an aspiring investigative journalist after having slept rough for just 3 of the 7 days intended, epitomises the intrepid venture of “fearless reporting” he wished to demonstrate. The tragic nature of the outcome of a good-willed proposal encourages tenacity to the notion that his proposals went awry with many saying that he has paid the ultimate price, and indeed he has, whilst post-mortem examinations are still taking place his death is suspected to have been the result of hypothermia. However, dark…

View original post 1,158 more words

Filmmaker,27, found dead

luciaida

Lee Halpin

Lee Halpin, a 27-year-old filmmaker, was found dead 3 days after embarking on a project to spend a week living on the streets in his home city of Newcastle. He is believed to have frozen to death while making a documentary about sleeping rough on the streets. In a video explaining his project, he claimed he was applying for a position on a Channel 4 investigative journalism program. He said he hoped to show the channel he could be “fearless” – a key “value” of the broadcaster.

View original post

The Winter Of 1947

Watts Up With That?

“Climate disruption” before the current lunacy of “CO2 caused extreme weather” era

By Paul Homewood

The Great Freeze of 1963 was the coldest winter in the UK for over 200 years. However, the winter of 1947, while not as cold, was one of the snowiest.

The UK Met Office describe what the conditions were like.

Thousands of people were cut off for days by snowdrifts up to seven metres deep during the winter of 1947, which saw exceptional snowfall. Supplies had to be flown in by helicopter to many villages, and the armed forces were called in to help clear roads and railways.

Between January and March that year, snow fell every day somewhere in the country for 55 days straight. Much of this settled because temperatures stayed very low, just above freezing most days.

View original post 701 more words

Bullying Study: It Does Get Better For Gay Teens

Not ‘so gay’…..Casual homophobia helps to create an environment in which aggressive homophobia, hate crime, bullying & suicide can flourish.

Be aware….The word ‘gay’ and other words (in a derogatory sense are used commonly now without… anyone even noticing or being shocked about it – that is the real shocker. People will say that not everyone means it in a bad way, but that’s not the point. It is still a derogatory word for gay people and its widespread use on in social media any elsewhere is reflective of the issues gay people face daily.

Related:

Bullied Gay Teen Found Hanging In Playground Dies After Being Taken Off Life Support

WCCO | CBS Minnesota

CHICAGO (AP) — It really does get better for gay and bisexual teens when it comes to being bullied, although young gay men have it worse than their lesbian peers, according to the first long-term scientific evidence on how the problem changes over time.

The seven-year study involved more than 4,000 teens in England who were questioned yearly through 2010, until they were 19 and 20 years old. At the start, just over half of the 187 gay, lesbian and bisexual teens said they had been bullied; by 2010 that dropped to 9 percent of gay and bisexual boys and 6 percent of lesbian and bisexual girls.

The researchers said the same results likely would be found in the United States.

In both countries, a “sea change” in cultural acceptance of gays and growing intolerance for bullying occurred during the study years, which partly explains the results, said study co-author…

View original post 465 more words

Level 2 Cold Weather Alert Issued

Northumberland County Weather Updates

There is a 70% probability of icy conditions/ snow between 00:00 on Tuesday and 08:00 on Wednesday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust’s emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Temperatures will drop across England from Monday onwards as a result of a cold, very windy northwesterly flow setting in. Wintry showers on Monday will be followed by an awkward mix of rain, sleet and snow around midweek, this likely to be followed by further wintry showers in the very cold arctic northerly flow. However, the primary concern at first is for temperatures and a significant wind chill, and there is now an increased probability of mean temperatures of 2 Celsius or less occurring in many areas of England from Tuesday onwards.

Yellow — Alert and…

View original post 116 more words

UK: Heavy snow to bring risk of disruption on Friday (180113) – 170113 1110z

The Met Office is warning of the risk of disruption as heavy snow is forecast across many parts of the UK on Friday.

Snow in Exeter street December 2010

A band of rain will push into the west into Friday morning, turning increasingly to sleet and snow. Parts of northwest England, Wales and the west midlands are particularly at risk of seeing significant falls of snow and the risk of blizzard conditions in the strong winds.

Photo: #Severe #Weather #News/AMBER EARLY WARNING of #SNOW for #Northwest #England, W #Midlands & E #Wales.As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are likely, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10-15 cm of snow could well occur quite widely, with the risk of 25 cm or more over high ground.Clearly there is the potential for some severe disruption, and the public are advised to watch for updates to this warning and to be prepared to alter travel plans.Valid from 0400 until 1800 Friday.Met Office Severe Weather Warningshave been issued for the heavy snow. An amber warning is in place for parts of Wales and western England where accumulations of 10 to 15 cm are expected and 20 cm or more over the hills.

Met Office weather warnings help you plan, prepare and protect yourself and others from the impacts of severe weather. An amber warning means you need to be prepared for the weather and take steps to change your plans and protect you, your family and your community from the impacts of the severe weather.

Whilst snow will fall over most areas, the far west, including Northern Ireland, Cornwall and extreme western parts of Wales are expected to see rain.

Eddy Carroll, Met Office Chief Forecaster, said: “The snow is expected to be heaviest through Friday morning, slowly weakening and clearing east during the second half of the day.

“Clearly there is the potential for significant disruption to peoples plans. We should all keep up to date with the latest weather forecasts, advice from local agencies and be prepared to change our travel plans if necessary.”

 

Expected snow accumulations between 0600 and midnight on Friday 18th Jan 2013

Darron Burness, head of the AA’s severe weather team, said: “With the outlook remaining cold, drivers need to be prepared for possible disruption.

“Before heading out, check the Met Office weather alerts and traffic reports and allow a bit more time for your journey, as you don’t want to rush on potentially icy roads. Do the basic checks on your car and, in case of any problems, carry plenty of warm clothing, blankets, de-icer and scraper, some food, hot flask and a fully-charged mobile.”

Steve Crosthwaite, head of the Highways Agency‘s National Traffic Operations Centre said: “We advise drivers to check road conditions and the Met Office weather forecast before they set off and during severe weather to consider whether their journey is essential. They may want to delay their travel until conditions improve and to allow our winter fleet the chance to treat the roads.

“Our traffic officers are working round the clock to monitor the network, deal with any incidents and keep traffic moving.”

Over the weekend we will see less severe conditions but further outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow are expected to push in from the west at times. The snow that has fallen will be slow to melt and ice will continue to be a risk, especially at night.

By thinking ahead we can all be better prepared for severe weather. Throughout the winter, the Met Office works with agencies across the UK to help keep the country safe, well and on the move.” – Met Office 16 January 2013

Met Office: Ice and snow continue to affect the UK – 130113 2225z

13 January 2013 – “As forecast, the cold weather has taken hold of the UK with rain, sleet and snow affecting many areas, as well as ice causing some disruption to travel.

A snowy street

Through the rest of Sunday, Met Office forecasters are predicting snow to affect much of northern England, and parts of Wales and the Midlands. Here 2 to 4 cm is possible, with more accumulating across hills in northern England. The rest of the UK will see showers of rain or sleet but snow showers are expected to affect the far southeast of England this evening and overnight, with 2 to 5 cm settling across parts of Kent. It will be cold everywhere with widespread frost and icy stretches on untreated surfaces.

On Monday, another band of rain, sleet and snow will spread from the northwest giving further accumulations of snow to eastern parts of the UK. The East Midlands, northern England and eastern Scotland look to be particularly affected with 10 to 15 cm possible on hills. Further south and west a mixture of rain and sleet is most likely but with temperatures dropping below freezing overnight, there will be a continued risk of icy stretches developing.

Tuesday should be much drier for the bulk of the country but further snow showers are expected to affect eastern coasts giving a further few centimetres in places.

Weather warningsfor ice and snow have been issued for many parts of the UK over the weekend and people should be aware that there could be some disruption to travel.

Andy Page, Met Office Chief Forecaster, said: “We expect rain, sleet and snow to affect many parts of the UK over the next day or so, with eastern areas of Britain seeing the most snowfall. With some very low temperatures overnight we expect ice to cause some impacts too and people should be aware that there is likely to be some travel disruption.”

Snow distribution 13 Jan

UK snow 14 Jan

Throughout the winter, the Met Office works with the Department of Health and NHS to help keep people well at times of severe weather. Our specially produced health forecasts, such asHealthy Outlook for COPD patients, give professionals and patients the opportunity to take action to help keep them well during cold weather. You can find out more information on our Cold Weather and Health, andGet ready for winter web pages.

Cold weather is forecast to remain through much of next week with any further snow most likely across eastern parts of the UK and, as ever, the latestforecasts andwarnings can be found on the Met Office website, on our mobile apps, and through TV and radio broadcasts on the BBC and ITV.” – Met Office

Related:

#UK SEVERE #WEATHER and #FLOOD WARNINGS Updated 13 Jan 20131820z

Penlee Lifeboat Disaster – 19 December 1981

(Photo: wikipedia.org)
Penlee Lifeboat Station
(Click phot for source)

Penlee Lifeboat Disaster

(From wikipedia.org)

The Penlee lifeboat disaster occurred on 19 December 1981 off the coast of Cornwall, in England, UK. The Penlee Lifeboat went to the aid of the coaster Union Star after its engines failed in heavy seas. After the lifeboat had managed to rescue four people both vessels were lost with all hands; sixteen people died including eight volunteer lifeboatmen.

MV Union Star

The MV Union Star was launched in Ringkobing in Denmark just a few days before it was wrecked on the Cornish coast. A mini-bulk carrier registered in Dublin, Ireland, it sailed to IJmuiden in the Netherlands to collect a cargo of fertiliser for its maiden voyage to Arklow in Ireland.[1]

It carried a crew of five: Captain Henry Morton;[2] Mate James Whittaker, Engineer George Sedgwick, Crewman Anghostino Verressimo, and Crewman Manuel Lopes.[3] Also on board was the captain’s family who had been picked up at an unauthorized stop on the east coast of England:[2] his wife Dawn and teenage stepdaughters Sharon and Deanne.[3]

Near the south coast of Cornwall, 8 miles (13 km) east of the Wolf Rock, the new ship’s engines failed.[1] She was unable to restart them but did not make a mayday call.[2] Assistance was offered by a tug, the Noord Holland, under the Lloyd’s Open Form salvage contract but Morton initially refused the offer, later accepting after consulting his owners.[4]

Winds were gusting at up to 90 knots (100 mph; 170 km/h) – hurricane force 12 on the Beaufort scale – with waves up to 60 feet (18 m) high.[5] The powerless ship was blown across Mount’s Bay towards the rocks of Boscawen Cove, near Lamorna.

RNAS Sea King helicopter

In light of the closeness of the ship to the beach, the Coastguard at Falmouth summoned a Royal Navy Sea King helicopter from 771 Naval Air Squadron, RNAS Culdrose. It used call sign “Rescue 80” during the mission.

The aircraft (airframe XZ574) was flown that night by United States Navy exchange-pilot Lt Cdr Russell Smith, assisted by Lt Steve Marlow, S/Lt Kenneth Doherty and Lacmn Martin Kennie of the Royal Navy.[6] However, due to the extreme wave conditions, they were unable to winch anyone off the ship.[2][7]

RNLB Solomon Browne

The Coastguard had difficulties contacting the secretary of the nearest lifeboat, Penlee Lifeboat Station at Mousehole on the west side of the bay. They eventually contacted Coxswain Trevelyan Richards and asked him to put the lifeboat on standby in case the helicopter rescue failed. He summoned the lifeboat’s volunteer crew and picked seven men to accompany him in the lifeboat.[2] They were: Second Coxswain/Mechanic Stephen Madron, Assistant Mechanic Nigel Brockman, Emergency Mechanic John Blewett, crewmembers Charlie Greenhaugh, Kevin Smith, Barrie Torrie and Gary Wallis.[8] Neil Brockman, the son of Nigel Brockman, got to the lifeboat station on time, but was turned down for the trip by Trevelyan Richards, who was reluctant to take out two members of the same family that night.[8]

The lifeboat launched at 8:12 pm and headed out through the storm to the drifting coaster.[1] The lifeboat was the Solomon Browne, a wooden 47-foot (14 m) Watson Class boat built in 1960[9] and capable of 9 knots (17 km/h).[2] After it had made several attempts to get alongside, four people managed to jump across;[7] the captain’s family and one of the men were apparently safe. The lifeboat radioed that ‘we’ve got four off’, but that was the last ever heard from anyone on either vessel.[2]

Lt Cdr Smith USN, the pilot of the rescue helicopter later reported that:[10]

“ The greatest act of courage that I have ever seen, and am ever likely to see, was the penultimate courage and dedication shown by the Penlee [crew] when it manoeuvred back alongside the casualty in over 60 ft breakers and rescuing four people shortly after the Penlee had been bashed on top of the casualty’s hatch covers. They were truly the bravest eight men I’ve ever seen who were also totally dedicated to upholding the highest standards of the RNLI ”

Lifeboats were summoned from Sennen Cove, The Lizard and St Mary’s to try to help their colleagues from Penlee. The Sennen Cove Lifeboat found it impossible to make headway round Land’s End. The Lizard Lifeboat found a serious hole in its hull when it finally returned to its slipway after a fruitless search. Wreckage from the Solomon Browne was found along the shore, and the Union Star lay capsized onto the rocks west of Tater Du Lighthouse. Some, but not all, of the 16 bodies were eventually recovered.[2]

The inquiry into the disaster determined that the loss of the Union Star and its crew was because of:[2]

  1. the irreparable failure of the ship’s engines due to contamination of fuel by sea water while off a dangerous lee shore;
  2. the extreme severity of the weather, wind and sea; and
  3. the capsize of the vessel on or shortly after stranding.

The loss of the Solomon Browne was:

in consequence of the persistent and heroic endeavours by the coxswain and his crew to save the lives of all from the Union Star. Such heroism enhances the highest traditions of the Royal National Lifeboat Institution in whose service they gave their lives.

Aftermath

The memorial at Penlee

Coxswain Trevelyan Richards was posthumously awarded the Royal National Lifeboat Institution’s gold medal, while the remainder of the crew were all posthumously awarded bronze medals. The station itself was awarded a gold medal service plaque.[10] The disaster prompted a massive public appeal for the benefit of the village of Mousehole which raised over £3 million (£8.57 million as of 2012),[11] although there was an outcry when the government tried to tax the donations.[2]

Two nights before the disaster, Charlie Greenhaugh had turned on the Christmas lights in Mousehole. After the storm the lights were left off but three days later his widow, Mary, asked for them to be repaired and lit again.[2] The village has been lit up each December since then, but on the anniversary of the disaster they are turned off at 8:00 pm for an hour as an act of remembrance.[7]

Within a day of the disaster enough people from Mousehole had volunteered to form a new lifeboat crew.[2] In 1983 a new lifeboat station (still known as ‘Penlee’) was opened nearby at Newlyn where a faster, larger boat could be kept moored afloat in the harbour. Neil Brockman later became the coxswain of the station’s Severn class lifeboat.[8] The old boathouse at Penlee Point with its slipway is empty but has been maintained and a memorial garden was created beside it in 1985 to commemorate the crew of the Solomon Browne.[11]

Airframe XZ574 is today preserved at the Fleet Air Arm Museum at RNAS Yeovilton, mainly due to its being flown during the Falklands War conflict by Prince Andrew, Duke of York.[6]

The disaster has been the subject of several songs. Seth Lakeman, an English folk singer, songwriter, and musician wrote a song called “Solomon Browne” about the Penlee lifeboat disaster.[7] This appears on his 2008 album ‘Poor Man’s Heaven’. The CD reissue of the Anthony Phillips‘ album Invisible Men includes “The Ballad of Penlee” about the incident. Paul Sirman, a Kentish folk artist who specialises in songs of the sea recorded the incident in his song “Solomon Browne” which appears on his album “One For All”. Kimber’s Men, a sea shanty group, recorded “Don’t Take The Heroes” on their CD of the same name. The song was written by Neil Kimber and Rodger Hepworth.[citation needed]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c Mitchell, Peter (2007-07-04). “The Penlee Lifeboat Disaster”. Submerged. http://www.submerged.co.uk/penlee.php. Retrieved 2010-12-02.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Kipling, Ray; Kipling, Susannah (2006). Never Turn Back. Stroud: Sutton Publishing. pp. 49–57. ISBN 0-7509-4307-6.
  3. ^ a b Sagar-Fenton, Michael (1991). Penlee: The Loss of a Lifeboat. St Teath: Bossiney Books. p. 8. ISBN 0-948158-72-7.
  4. ^ Sagar-Fenton, Michael (1991). pp. 12–16, 25.
  5. ^ “Lifeboat crew missing after mission”. On this day (BBC date = 1981-12-20). 20 December 1981. http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/december/20/newsid_2539000/2539173.stm. Retrieved 2010-12-02.
  6. ^ a b Discussion on Aviation Forum
  7. ^ a b c d “Solomon Browne history”. BBC. 27 September 2010. http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/cornwall/hi/things_to_do/newsid_9036000/9036004.stm. Retrieved 2010-12-03.
  8. ^ a b c “History”. Penlee Lifeboat Station. http://www.penleelifeboat.org.uk/history/station-history.html. Retrieved 2010-12-02.
  9. ^ Denton, Tony (2009). Handbook 2009. Shrewsbury: Lifeboat Enthusiasts Society. pp. 24–25.
  10. ^ a b Leach, Nicholas (2006) [2000]. Cornwall’s Lifeboat Heritage. Chacewater: Twelveheads Press. pp. 32–33. ISBN 0-906294-43-6.
  11. ^ a b “Penlee History”. RNLI. http://www.rnli.org.uk/rnli_near_you/southwest/stations/PenleeCornwall/. Retrieved 2010-12-03.

Further reading

External links

Wikimedia Commons has media related to: Penlee Lifeboat Station

Falmouth Coastguard Rescue Team - "Semper Paratus"

A very poignant memorial. When this disaster happened today 1981

They will always be remember and never forgot.

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LGBT: 1 in 4 young gay people assaulted in England, 47% threatened or intimidated – New research 041112 1840Z

One in four young gay people assaulted

Initial findings of the widest research into gay people in England has found more than half self-harm
04 November 2012 | By Joe Morgan

One in four young gay people are assaulted, 47% have received threats, and more than half have self-harmed.

Photo by Scott nunn.

One in four young gay people have been assaulted in England, and more than half have self-harmed.

The new research, which also found nearly half (47%) have received threats or intimidation as a result of being gay.

As reported by The Independent On Sunday, the figures come from Youth Chances, the biggest social research project into young LGBT people in England.

Dan Baker, Youth Chances project manager, said despite it being 2012, it is still a hard environment to grow up gay.

‘Self-harm jumped out as a really alarming statistic,’ he said. ‘Self-harm is a way of people expressing an internal issue that they might not be able to express. Maybe Britain is not as tolerant as we thought.’

The statistics for self-arm among gay people are significantly higher than the national average of one in 12 young people. Two thirds of women said they had hurt themselves on purpose, compared to 37% of men.

Transgender young adults were the most vulnerable, with four out of five saying they had deliberately harmed themselves.

Youth Chances believes its research shows public attitudes have yet to catch up with the legal system.

Baker said: ‘There’s a lot of great equality now, such as allowing gay couples to adopt and have civil partnerships.

‘But, despite the progress, there seems to be lots of cases of harassment and even assault.

‘If people are being taunted or attacked because of who they are, it shows public opinion behavior hasn’t caught up with legislation.’

Gay rights campaigner Peter Tatchell told the British paper: ‘These statistics are really shocking; they ought to be a wake-up call to every parent, teacher and community leader. As a society, we are still failing LGBT kids on a massive scale.

‘Even today, around half of schools have no anti-bullying program specifically addressing homophobia. Kids are not born bigoted, they become bigoted.

‘All the evidence suggests that education can help combat bigotry and promote understanding and acceptance.’

The three-year project will eventually survey 15,000 young adults. The initial findings are based on the responses of the first 3,500.

==============================

(Image: cultureofyes.files.wordpress.com)

November is Anti-Bullying month and Anti-Bullying week is 19th – 23rd November. This is a perfect time to challenge homophobia bullying affecting young people in our schools. Take action now!

Advice on resolving gay/ homophobic bullying (Link to bullying.co.uk)

Samaritans Helpline

Two out of every five victims of school homophobic bullying contemplate suicide, says survey

Southwark Primary School becomes first to offer training days to support staff in tackling homophobic bullying

“Homophobic bullying is endemic, it damages children’s lives and contributes to the lowering of standards. Homophobic bullying has gone unchecked in our schools for many years resulting in countless individuals suffering physical and emotional damage and seeing their live chances compromised as a result.

School leaders may express hesitation in engaging in this work, for fear of offending parents or people of faith. However, our role as school leaders is to face challenge and drive forward innovation for the sake of the brilliant young people in our care.”

• Shaun Dellenty is deputy headteacher at Alfred Salter Primary School in the London Borough of Southwark. Follow him on Twitter @ShaunDellenty
headteacher-update.com

A taste of what young (and not so young) LGBT people are up against…..

LGBT youngsters are are surrounded by  homophobic slurs on Twitter just see for yourself on this website that tracks these slurs in real time: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2012/oct/02/no-homophobes-language-count

See also “Tracking casual homophobia”  http://www.economist.com/blogs/johnson/2012/10/language-twitter

Here are some related videos:

LGBT Bullying and Suicide: It Does Get Better

This is what President Obama says:

In the US, Dr. Ron Holt is a clinical psychiatrist, who is passionate about ending bullying and suicide, enhancing the knowledge of medical providers regarding Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) healthcare and educating the public about the consequences of homophobia. http://audacityofpride.com/

Bullying and How You Should Deal With It – 

Bullied teen Lesbian comes out to her mum

EDEL 244 iMovie Project. Heart-breaking……

Battle of Britain Day – Tribute to the #RAF (the few) – Updated 20 Sept 2012

Hurricanes

The Battle of Britain and the RAF today

The Battle of Britain and the RAF today

The Battle of Britain acts as a touchstone for today’s RAF. The courage and self-sacrifice of our forebears serves as a continuing inspiration to our people, and also acts as a constant reminder that the RAF’s foremost duty remains the control of the air. The threat to the UK may have changed in character, and the ongoing control of the air mission in Afghanistan takes a very different form from the air battles over Kent and Sussex 70 years ago, but the objective remains the same: to secure the free use of the air for ourselves and our allies and to deny it to our adversaries.

Eurofighter Typhoon provides the cornerstone of the RAF’s ability to guarantee control of the air, as did the Spitfire and Hurricane in 1940 The Legacy of 1940

Today’s Royal Air Force (RAF) is very different to the force that won the Battle of Britain, but its spirit, dedication and ethos remain much the same; moreover, its central purpose has not altered over the intervening 70 years. The aerial threat to the United Kingdom in 2010 may be less tangible than the menace of Hitler’s Luftwaffe, but – as the events of 9/11 proved – it is still very real, and the consequences of a successful terrorist attack would be severe. This is why – just as in the ‘Spitfire Summer’ of 1940 – the RAF’s first duty is to control the air, not only at home, to safeguard the skies above the UK, but also on expeditionary operations abroad, to guarantee the freedom of action of friendly air, land and naval forces.

This fundamental requirement was the reason why the RAF was originally created in 1918, after an independent commission into German Zeppelin and bomber raids found that the inadequacy of British defences was the result of air capabilities being provided through separate (and ancillary) elements of the Army and the Navy. Instead, the Smuts’ Report recommended that a single, dedicated entity was necessary to focus on the delivery of air power as its sole duty.

The logic remains the same today; control of the air is just too important to be left to other organisations as a secondary task. The far-sighted decision to form an independent air force meant that the necessary expertise and capability was available to achieve victory in the Battle of Britain twenty years later, ensuring the immediate survival of the nation and demonstrably altering the course of history, and was also the first step in establishing the RAF’s proud heritage as the world’s longest established air force, resulting in an unparalleled record of experience and success in every sort of military operation across the globe, right through to the key role currently being played in support of the NATO mission in Afghanistan.

The Battle of Britain was a contest for control of the air, and this remains a fundamental prerequisite for any putative military endeavour in the twenty-first century: quite simply, it enables all other activities. For example, it would be impossible to even deploy a fighting force – in its vulnerable transport ships, aircraft and land vehicles – to a crisis zone without control of the air, let alone move it freely around a theatre of operations after arrival. However, the importance of control of the air is equally clear to the enemies of the West, and they will contest it with every means at their disposal: this may result in air battles between fighter aircraft (such as in the early stages of the Gulf War in 1991), engagements between aircraft and surface-based missiles and anti-aircraft guns, or insurgent attacks on air bases and essential ground infrastructure.

Because of its investment in first-class training and capable equipment, the RAF has been successful in ensuring that British forces have not suffered any casualties from enemy air attack since the Falklands War in 1982, where the images of Royal Fleet Auxiliary Sir Galahad burning at Bluff Cove remain as the starkest possible illustration of what happens when control of the air is lost. However, the RAF has had to fight hard for control of the air in all of its campaigns since the Falklands: in the Gulf War in 1991, against Iraqi fighter aircraft and a dense network of missile and gun defences; against the highly effective Serbian air defence system during the Kosovo War in 1999, when more than 2,000 missiles were fired at NATO aircraft; and again, against the Iraqi air defence system as recently as 2003, when the Baghdad missile engagement zone remained an active threat until the final fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime.

These examples demonstrate that control of the air can never be assumed or taken for granted, and without it, the success of any military operation will be compromised. This is why combat aircraft such as the Typhoon are necessary to provide a competitive, multi-role capability, not least in deterring potential adversaries in a global environment where state-of-the-art Russian and Chinese fighter aircraft and surface-to-air missiles are freely available and widely exported, often to unstable or problematic states.

The RAF Regiment makes a major contribution to control of the air on current operations in Afghanistan

Even when our adversaries lack a conventional air force, they will still contest our ability to control the air: an RAF Hercules transport aircraft was downed by ground-fire in Iraq in 2005, and helicopters in Afghanistan are often engaged by insurgents with small-arms fire and rocket-propelled grenades. Additionally, aircraft have been attacked on the ground by rockets and mortar fire, which is why the specialist force protection provided by the RAF Regiment, familiar with air operations and flight profiles, is necessary to secure operating bases and landing areas.

In this way, today’s RAF Regiment gunners play as significant a part in the current battle for control of the air as the RAF’s Spitfire and Hurricane pilots did in 1940.

The wide availability of man-portable anti-aircraft missiles increases the threat and requires continuing investment in suitable defensive aids and counter-measures, particularly for slower transport aircraft and helicopters. The acquisition by the Taliban of Stinger missiles during the Soviet incursion into Afghanistan in the eighties largely negated the power of the Soviet Air Force and was a major factor in the Kremlin’s decision to abandon the campaign, illustrating both the need to invest in control of the air capabilities and the consequences of failing to do so.

At present, the most significant air threat to the United Kingdom itself is a terrorist attack, with a hijacked airliner being used as a suicide bomb. Consequently, a force of Tornado and Typhoon fighters is held at Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) all year round, day and night, with a remit to ‘scramble’ within a few minutes to intercept any aircraft entering or flying around NATO-monitored airspace around the UK without proper authorisation. The public might be surprised to know that in 2009, this happened more than once a month, on some occasions to check out airliners that were not complying with proper procedures or were failing to communicate, but also to intercept Russian patrol aircraft.

Safeguarding the UK’s skies requires dedication, professionalism and teamwork 24/7, 365 days a year

Meeting the QRA requirement is a demanding and largely unsung task, but as the attack on the World Trade Centre demonstrated, there is absolutely no margin for error. It involves the highest levels of professionalism and close teamwork, because radar stations, air traffic agencies, tanker aircraft and engineering support are all required to put the fighters in the air at the right time and in the right place.

As well as routine air defence cover, high profile events require particular attention, and the RAF’s Tornado and Typhoon fighter force, air defence ground environment (search radars and networked communications) and specialist Sentry airborne warning radar aircraft are all necessary elements of the comprehensive air defence system necessary to achieve this. A QRA commitment is also retained in the Falklands, where a small force of Typhoon fighters acts as a continuing and cost-effective deterrent to any potential incursions against the sovereignty of the Islands.

And the echoes of 1940 still resonate strongly. The highly capable air defence system that protects the UK today is clearly recognisable as a lineal descendent of the brilliantly effective ‘Dowding System’ of sector control, and some of the key battle locations even remain within the defence estate. These include RAF Northolt, the home of the RAF’s Free Polish squadrons during the battle, and a reminder of the multi-national nature of Fighter Command in 1940, a harbinger of the coalition approach to air power that is such a feature of operations today.

Photography: RAF/MOD/Crown Copyright. Text: © Crown Copyright/MOD 2012

RAF parade through Lincoln today (16 Sept 2012)(Link)

More than 70 personnel from RAF Waddington parade through Lincoln today to honour “the British and Allied forces that fought and died during the Battle of Britain”.

“It also recognises the men and women who continue to serve in the armed forces today.”

Battle of Britain – In Praise Of The RAF

(Photo: wikimedia.org)
Spitfire Mk IIa P7350 of the BBMF is the only existing airworthy Spitfire that fought in the Battle of Britain.
(Click photo for more on Spitfires)

“The gratitude of every home in our Island, in our Empire, and indeed throughout the world, except in the abodes of the guilty, goes out to the British airmen who, undaunted by odds, unwearied in their constant challenge and mortal danger, are turning the tide of the World War by their prowess and by their devotion.

(Photo: wikimedia.org)
British Prime Minister Winston Churchill

Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.”

Winston Churchill addressing England’s House of Commons, August 20, 1940

Close to 3,000 RAF fliers took to the skies in the Battle of Britain. More than 500 were killed; around 80 percent of those lost were Britons. The chance of any of The Few ever being forgotten by the nation they helped save, meanwhile, is absolutely zero. –  Time Life (More here)

Battle of Britain Day

15 September 1940

The most decisive confrontation of the Battle of Britain took place in the skies above London on 15 September.

(Photo: BBC)
The average age of an RAF pilot in 1940 was 20. The strain they were under is clearly written on the face of Squadron Leader B J E ‘Sandy’ Lane (centre), pictured here aged 23. He was killed in combat 2 years later. (IWM CH1366)
(Click photo for more from BBC)

Explore the key events of the Battle of Britain with clips from over 50 years of BBC television and radio programmes

The Battle of Britain was the German air force’s attempt to gain air superiority over the RAF from July to September 1940. Their ultimate failure was one of the turning points of World War Two and prevented Germany from invading Britain.

Extensive Battle of Britain material from the BBC here (Link)

Squadron Leader Geoffrey Wellum DFC and Group Captain Patrick Tootal OBE DL RAF (Ret’d) give their views on Battle of Britain Sunday at The Royal Air Force Club and the memorial service at Westminster Abbey and St. Clement Danes. Highlights from the day include footage of a Spitfire flypast and young Royal Air Force members admiring The Bomber Command Memorial in Piccadilly. (Posted on Youtube by The Royal Air Force Club)

Elsewhere on the web

UK flash flooding after more than a month’s worth of rain fell in 24 hours – 24 June 2012 1306 GMT/UTC

Torrential downpours have brought flooding to swaths of northern England, forcing people to leave their homes as more than a month’s worth of rain fell in 24 hours.

An 80-year-old man was hospitalised with serious internal injuries following a collision in heavy rain in the Scottish Borders on Friday afternoon.

In the West Yorkshire village of Mytholmroyd, the river Calder burst its banks at about 9pm, leaving many homes and businesses under water.

Simon Young, a local councillor, said it was “a pretty devastating picture. I’ve spoken to a lot of people, a lot of whom have lived in the area for years, and they cannot remember anything like this in the last 24 years. It’s going to be a pretty big clean-up operation.”

The deluges also battered revellers at the Isle of Wight Festival and brought havoc to Cumbria which buckled under the worst of the wet weather. Up to 100mm of rain hit the region overnight, while south-west Scotland, Northern Ireland and Lancashire also experienced unusually heavy rainfall.

The Environment Agency issued around 140 flood warnings and alerts in northern regions which are also subject to Met Office severe weather warnings. Some families spent the night in temporary accommodation after they were evacuated from properties in Lancashire when rivers burst their banks.

They were taken to the nearby Darwen Leisure Centre after fleeing homes in Croston and Darwen, near Chorley, but were expected to return today.

 In Wigan, fire crews helped a number of residents leave their homes using a rescue boat after waist-deep water flooded homes and the RSPCA called firefighters to assist in the rescue of a number of animals from a flooded allotment, including six horses and four dogs.

Forecasters said water levels would begin to recede but further showers are expected to slow the clear-up process, meaning some areas will remain swamped.

However, the adverse conditions are set to improve – with the possibility of sunshine for festival-goers on Sunday.

Matt Dobson, senior forecaster at MeteoGroup, the weather division of the Press Association, said Borrowdale in Cumbria bore the brunt of the bad weather, with an estimated 100mm of rain.

“It has been exceptionally wet overnight across Cumbria,” he said.

“By the end of the night, it is fair to say that probably 70mm-100mm fell over 24 hours which is a month’s worth of rain. It looks like the worst is probably now over for Cumbria.

There will still be some showers today and overnight but it is not going to be anywhere near as bad as it has been.

The worst weather today is going to be across Scotland, where there is likely to be further heavy rain or thunder storms.

But the good news is the Isle of Wight is likely to have a dry day.”

Rain brought chaos to parts of the country yesterday, flooding more than 70 homes.

Croston was said to have become an “island” and homes were evacuated as the local authority handed out sandbags and a shelter was set up at the village’s Bishop Rawstorne School.

Localised flashflooding also hit households in Greater Manchester where water was said to be waist height in some areas.

Firefighters were called in to clear floodwater in Wigan, helping three people and a dog away from their properties by boat.

The Olympic torch relay was also hit by the weather with organisers forced to cancel an outdoor event in Blackpool.

But the outlook is more promising in the coming days.

A band of wet weather is expected to sweep the country tonight, moving from West to East.

Forecasts suggest it will pass relatively quickly, meaning no one place should see more than five hours of rain.

Amounts of between 10mm-15mm are expected to fall quite widely before clearing in many areas today, with much of the country expected to see a dry day on Monday.

 Sunday, 24 June, 2012 at 05:08 (05:08 AM) UTC RSOE

UK: There are 160 FLOOD ALERTS current in force across England and Wales

England:

35  in the Southwest

37 in the Southeast

11 in the Northeast

41 in the Midlands

25 in Anglia

Wales: 8 in Wales

Flooding is possible. Be prepared

Details here (updated every 15 min)
http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/34678.aspx?type=Severity&term=3

UK: There are 22 FLOOD WARNINGS current in force across England

England:

14 in the Southwest

2 in the Northeast

2 in the Midlands

4 in Anglia

Flooding is expected. Immediate action required

Details here (updated every 15 min)

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/34678.aspx?type=Severity&term=2