Mexico: Hurricane Patricia 20E CAT1: Tropical Storm Warning for Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas (NHC) – Updated 24 Oct 2015 0930z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Patricia 20E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083407W5_NL_sm 24a

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 240832
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

…PATRICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM…SSW OF ZACATECAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM ENE OF TEPIC MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning west of Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 103.1 West. Patricia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). Patricia is
forecast to move quickly north-northeastward farther inland over
northern and northeastern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and
Patricia is forecast to become a tropical storm later this morning,
and dissipate tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles
(465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of the warning area and over inland areas, especially in
higher elevations, near the center through this morning.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains are likely
to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. During the
past 24 hours, a rainfall total of 10.25 inches (260 mm) has been
reported at Nevado De Colima in Jalisco state.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to gradually subside but
will remain above normal through late today.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 20E (Patricia) Warning #17
Issued at 24/0400Z

JTWC 24

20E_232345sams

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 240400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240000Z — NEAR 19.6N 104.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 104.9W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 22.7N 103.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 25.0N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 104.3W.
HURRICANE 20E (PATRICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 19E (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

NE Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 24 Oct, 2015 3:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane PATRICIA (20E) currently located near 20.2 N 104.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Zacatecas (22.8 N, 102.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
    Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2 24

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 240832

WTPZ25 KNHC 240832
TCMEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WEST OF MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 250SE 60SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 103.1W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.6N 101.2W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 103.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

More warnings here: METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Disasters Emergency Committee (@decappeal) Appeal for Nepal Earthquake – Deaths reach over 4,000, thousands injured & homeless

Nepal’s Devastating Earthquake Has Left More Than 4,000 Dead

SKY NEWS 16:01, UK, Monday 27 April 2015

A special programme as rescue teams continue to search for those buried in the rubble.
If video not playing go here: http://news.sky.com/video/1473149/nepal-earthquake-special-report

Our #Nepal Earthquake Appeal is now open. Donate here: #NepalQuake http://t.co/r3o1X0ZHkN http://t.co/fTNltlrj63

Please give as much as you can, here: http://www.dec.org.uk/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social%20media&utm_campaign=A017&utm_content=TweetsNepal/

Turkey: Deaths rise to 284, 122 rescued injured. 18 trapped in coal mine explosion/ongoing fire in Soma, Manisa province – Updated 160514 1335z

Update 16 May 2014 1308 UTC :

President Gl visits Soma amid protests

May 15, 2014, Thursday/ 17:15:17/ TODAY’S ZAMAN/ ISTANBUL

President Abdullah Gl speaks to reporters during his visit to Soma mining. (Photo: Today’s Zaman)

President Abdullah Gl traveled to Soma, in western Turkey, on Thursday after the mining town was hit by a disaster that left at least 283 miners dead and was met by angry protests from relatives of the victims.

Gl’s first stop was Akhisar State Hospital, where he visited those who were injured in the incident. Gl wished them a speedy recovery and said he is praying to God that such incidents never take place again. The president was accompanied by Parliament Speaker Cemil iek and Health Minister Mehmet Mezzinoğlu.

There are 10 injured miners in the hospital and they are in good condition.

Gl, who stayed in the hospital for 30 minutes, left the area under tight security measures.

A woman staged an angry protest as the president’s official car was leaving the hospital. The woman, identified as Hlya Akaydın, said: You shameless people, may God damn you. May you burn violently.”

After leaving Akhisar, Gl went to Soma to visit the site of the incident.

Access to the mine entrance was controlled by gendarme roadblocks several kilometers away ahead of the visit by Gl, as gendarmes searched cars.

The president, who cancelled a visit to China after the mine disaster, visited the surroundings of the mine along with iek and was briefed by Energy Minister Taner Yıldız, Health Minister Mezzinoğlu, and Family and Social Policy Minister Ayşenur İslam about the search and rescue efforts and the situation of the injured. The president also spoke with relatives of the miners who were waiting for their loved ones and offered his condolences to the relatives of the victims.

Some had still not received any information about their loved ones and booed the president. One accused the president of hindering the rescue efforts.

Esteemed president, rescue teams cannot enter the mine because of you. We don’t need police here, we need rescue teams. We still cannot get the dead bodies out, he said.

A victim’s mother, whose name was not available, spoke to Gl in person and asked for his help to find her son.

My beloved son lies underground. There is still no news from him. They [rescue teams] stopped working just because the president has come. There are efforts to hide negligence, but there is obvious negligence, the mother told reporters.

Making a statement from the mine area, Gl, who looked upset and had a trembling voice, said Turkey’s loss is very great and there are lessons Turkey needs to take from this disaster.

We need to join hands in order to heal the wounds here and show a big example of solidarity, the president said as he offered his condolences to the victims’ families.

Undoubtedly, such pain should not be experienced again. Just like developed countries minimized such pain [caused by mine disasters], we need to review our regulations and take the necessary measures, he said.

Gl also noted that the State Audit Institution (DDK), tied to the presidency, will provide an outline of measures that need to be taken to prevent similar tragedies in mines.

An administrative and judicial investigation has been launched into the incident, said the president, promising that it will be carried out meticulously.

==================================================

HĂĽrriyet Daily News:

Company admits there was no refuge chamber in Soma mine, but vows to continue operations

Soma Holding head Ali Grkan is seen during a press conference May 16, three days after the deadly disaster. AA Photo

Soma Holding head Ali Grkan is seen during a press conference May 16, three days after the deadly disaster. AA Photo

The operator of the Soma mine has denied any negligence in the worst mining disaster in Turkeys history, while admitting that a refuge chamber that could have saved lives had not yet been constructed. Nevertheless, Soma Holding head Ali Grkan vowed to continue operating the mine after shortcomings are addressed in the wake of the May 13 disaster.

There was no negligence on our side. I have worked in mines for 20 years, and I did not witness such an incident [here on May 13], said Akın elik, the operating manager of the Soma Coal Mining Company, during a press conference May 16.

Asked if the company would continue to operate the mine, Grkan said: “Of course. After all the measures are taken and the missing room [for the refuge chamber] is built, this operation will continue. Legally, we don’t have an obligation to build a refuge chamber. But we would have completed it in three-four months if this accident hadnt happened.”

No refuge chamber, but escape point

The officials have admitted that there was no refuge chamber in the mine, but added that there was an escape point close to ground level, allowing workers to exit without walking the 300 meters to the main entrance.

When the facility was first established, there was one refuge room that could host 500 people at the center of the mine, but it was closed when production ended in that area of the mine.

As the production area was moved to a deeper part of the mine, preparations were underway to build refuge rooms there, according to the executives.

If the accident had happened three or four months later, the construction of refuge rooms would have been finished and the workers would have survived, the company claimed.

Reason remains unknown

Officials have accepted that they do not know the reason of the accident, describing the fire as being technically inexplicable.

The cause of the fire was heated coal, and no flames erupted at a power distribution unit in the mine, they said.

The incident happened in three to five minutes. The gas filled everywhere in five minutes, elik added.

Grkan, also said they had made the necessary investments to ensure the safety of workers. We have spent our income to improve working conditions to avoid possible accidents, Grkan said, while refusing to answer questions from journalists.

I am in severe pain. People who know me would understand, he said, noting that he had health issues.

elik also confirmed that there were 787 workers inside the mine when the disaster occurred. He said that 363 workers managed to escape the mine after the accident, while another 122 were rescued injured and transferred to nearby hospitals.

elik also confirmed a previous statement by Energy Minister Taner elik who said 18 miners remained trapped inside the mine.

Officals have declined to provide a list of the 787 workers, saying they do not have the authority to release it publicly as all data has been delivered to Turkeys disaster agency, AFAD.

No child workers

Another senior company official, Celalletin Gkaşan, has categorically rejected claims that they employed child workers or subcontracted workers.

There are no foreign, minor or subcontracted workers, Gkaşan said, answering to widespread criticism about the companys alleged mismanagement of the mine.

Cemal Yıldız, who perished in the disaster, was originally said to be 15, but his family subsequently revealed that he was 19 at the time of death. According to Yıldız’s Facebook account, however, he started working in the mines in 2011, meaning he had been employed illegally at the age of 16.

Along with the compensation required by law, there is a program to give more support to the families of victims, Grkan said.

While the scale of the project is yet to be determined for the moment, the company will cover the education tuition of the victims children and other costs, he added.

The Soma coal mine, which is the regions biggest facility employing up to 6,500 workers, was privatized at the end of the 1970s.

May/16/2014

Update 14 May 2014 0720 UTC :

Turkey Mine Blast: 201 Dead And Toll May Rise

Hopes are fading for hundreds of miners trapped underground, as relatives wait anxiously at the surface for news.

Workers wait outside a mine in Soma, Turkey, following an underground explosion

Oxygen is being pumped into the mine to help those trapped

At least 201 miners have been killed after an underground explosion and fire in western Turkey.

The countrys energy minister Taner Yildiz�said 787 workers were in the mine at the time of the blast, which is thought to have been caused by an electrical fault.

Hundreds are still trapped in shafts and tunnels up to 2.5 miles (4km) from the nearest exit. He said 80 miners were injured and at least four of them are in a serious condition.

Mr Yildiz�said�rescue effort is now reaching a critical stage, with hopes fading for the those still trapped.

Workers wait outside a mine in Soma, Turkey, following an underground explosion
Many of the miners were coughing and covered in dust as they were rescued

The blast in Soma, some 155 miles (250km) south of Istanbul, is one of the worst mining disasters in Turkish history.

It is reported the fire is still burning underground, hampering rescue efforts.

Fresh air is being pumped into the pit to help workers who may be struggling to breathe, amid fears they could suffer carbon monoxide poisoning.

TURKEY-MINE-BLAST
Dozens of miners have been rescued or made their own way out

TV pictures showed rescued miners coughing and spluttering as they were pulled out alive, their faces coated with black dust.

Relatives waited anxiously at the entrance to the mine, cheering and applauding each successful rescue.

But according to journalist Doran Jones fear has already turned to anger among the relatives of many of those lost.

He told Sky News previous accidents have been reported at the mine and the safety record of operator Soma Komur�has been called into question.

TURKEY-MINING-ACCIDENT
Worried relatives rush to the mine complex in the town of Soma

Mr Jones said one miner had told him he felt like a lamb to the slaughter every time he went to work.

Miner Oktay�Berrin told new Agency AFP�workers were not protected underground.

In a statement, the mines owners, Soma Komur, described the explosion as a tragic accident which happened despite maximum safety measures and inspections.

The incident took place in the town of Soma, in the province of Manisa
The explosion happened in Turkeys western Manisa province

According to Turkeys ministry of labour, the pit was last inspected on March 17 and was found to be compliant with safety regulations.

The accident happened when a power distribution unit exploded about 1.2 miles (2km) beneath the surface, according to Nurettin Akcul, head of the Turkish Mineworkers Union.

It is thought it happened during a change of shifts, leading to confusion over the exact number of workers still inside.

The countrys worst mining disaster was in 1992, when a gas explosion killed 270 workers near the Black Sea port of Zonguldak.

Turkeys Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has postponed a one-day visit to Albania and is heading to the scene. Sky News

How to Prepare Your Family for Disasters Revisited

TheSurvivalPlaceBlog

English: Eureka, MO, 03/22/2008 -- Members of ...

Start by talking with your family about the potential disasters you could face and why it’s necessary to prepare for them. This could be lots of different scenarios but take look at the most common ones for your demographic area, this could be Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Tornadoes or Flooding or maybe a combination of all of them. Be sure to involve each member of your family in the planning process, especially your kids. By showing them simple steps that can increase their safety, you can help reduce their anxiety about emergencies and how they will react when the real thing happens. Here are some topics and ideas to discuss and plans to make during your talk.

View original post 374 more words

Emergencies, Twitter & Twitcident

Very often folks learn about major accidents and other problems from Twitter first, but those that need to know don’t have the time to sort through this sea of data.

They need a web filter. Twitcident( http://twitcident.com/?kid=8W2W ) does that – once it knows of an incident or potentially dangerous situation developing, it starts monitoring tweets about that incident or situation, together with tweets from the public. However, it filters out much of the rubbish that clogs Twitter, such as @ replies. It zeros in on finding key information.
The general public will find it useful too.
One example, where Goaty’s News had some involvement, perhaps demonstrates the need for this sort of intervention….
During last year’s riots in London & other British cities, Twitter was ablaze. Both the good & bad in people surfaced. Misinformation can spread like wildfire. Some purposely mislead, whilst others were simply led astray & retweeted. There were even calls from certain quarters for Twitter & Facebook to be shut down, during periods of unrest & riot.
Luckily, there were trusted sources tweeting, the emergency services, journalists (notably, Paul Lewis & Neal Mann) & sources deemed reliable from previous incidents.
Although not perfect, Goaty’s News will always try to help dispell misinformation on social media, whenever possible & believes that inspired projects such as Twitcident, that work for the common good, are well overdue.

Here is more on Twitcident: http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2012/04/twitcident-fights-fire-with-twitter/

From The Verge: http://www.theverge.com/2012/4/15/2948447/twitcident-emergency-twitter-crowd-source-crisis-management?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

BBC World on Twitcident: “Bringing order out of chaos” http://blog.twitcident.com/bbc-world-service-interview-about-twitcident