US/Canada: Tropical Storm Bertha 051500Z near 34.8N 71.9W, moving NNE at 19 knots (NHC) – Updated 050814 1520z (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bertha

…BERTHA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE….

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT…..NHC

BERTHA NOW EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD –
EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE – COULD AFFECT EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
WITH RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY – CHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 3-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000
WTNT33 KNHC 051453
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014

…BERTHA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…34.8N 71.9W
ABOUT 445 MI…715 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH…35 KM/H….AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES…205 KM
FROM THE CENTER…MAINLY TO THE EAST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

 

CANADA

Hurricane Track Information

Hurricane Track Information

Canadian Hurricane Centre symbol Legend

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 37 to 62 kilometres per hourTropical Depression

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 118 kilometres per hourHurricane

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 63 to 117 kilometres per hourTropical Storm

Icon for a storm system that used to be tropical but has since lost most of its tropical characteristicsPost-Tropical Storm

An example showing a Hurricane icon with three parameters; maximum wind 120 Kilometers per hour; local time and day 15:00 Thu/jeu; and the storm name Andrea.

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

WOCN31 CWHX 051145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:00 AM ADT TUESDAY
5 AUGUST 2014.
———————————————————————
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR TROPICAL STORM BERTHA.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

BERTHA NOW EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD –
EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE – COULD AFFECT EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
WITH RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

———————————————————————
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: 34.3 NORTH 72.2 WEST.

ABOUT 730 KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST AT 35 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BERTHA WILL PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUD-COVER FROM IT MOVING OVERHEAD. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT RAIN FROM THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE OF THE STORM COULD
AFFECT THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO THE AVALON
DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY INTERACT WITH THE STORM.

A. WIND.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY THURSDAY IF THE TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE PLAYS A GREATER ROLE IN THE STORM’S TRANSFORMATION.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THAN
WIND. AT THIS POINT AMOUNTS OF 25 TO 50 MILLIMETRES ARE POSSIBLE
IF THE RAIN MOVES OVER LAND. MORE INFORMATION WILL BECOME AVAILABLE
IN THIS REGARD LATER TODAY.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

THERE WILL BE SOME OCEAN SWELLS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WAVE
HEIGHTS NEAR 2 METRES ARE EXPECTED. NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME OCEAN SWELLS AS WELL ON THURSDAY. LARGE WAVES GIVING POUNDING
SURF MAY REACH 4 METRES FOR SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITH MUCH LARGER
WAVES EXPECTED OFFSHORE. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOUTH- AND EAST-FACING BEACHES AS THE OCEAN SWELLS ARRIVE.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EAST SCOTIAN SLOPES AND
LAURENTIAN FAN. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE
SOUTHERN MARITIMES MARINE WATERS. BERTHA WILL ALSO BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. ANTICIPATE
STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS.

VISIT weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

– FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

– STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

– HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

– TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/COUTURIER/FOGARTY
_______________________________________________
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

Technical Discussion

 

 

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 5 Aug, 2014 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BERTHA (AL03) currently located near 34.8 N 71.9 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Storm Tracker Map

Tropical Storm BERTHA: Storm-centered zoom at 117 hours lead (TSR) Updated 1511 UTC

Storm Tracker Map
Tropical Storm BERTHA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 117 hours lead – TSR Updated 1511 UTC

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Atlantic

CANADA: Marine Weather Warnings

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1432

WTNT23 KNHC 051432
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 71.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….110NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 71.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.1N 69.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.8N 64.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.5N 59.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 180SE 150SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 45.0N 53.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…150NE 240SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 49.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 49.0N 22.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 51.0N 2.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 71.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1010

FZNT01 KWBC 051010
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1030 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 05
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 06
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 07

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NEAR 38.6N 66.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE…AND 180 NM SE AND 150
NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 26 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 44.1N 56.4W. WITHIN
30 NM NE AND 90 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE…180 NM SE…150 NM SW…AND 60
NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW E OF AREA 60N34W 996 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 300 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO
18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 57N27W 1000 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SW
AND 480 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
FROM 30N TO 40N BETWEEN 64W AND 73W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL BERTHA DESCRIBED IN WARNINGS
SECTION ABOVE.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 56N TO 61N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 55N TO 61N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF A LINE
FROM 62N63W TO 60N54W TO 52N50W.

.HIGH 34N34W 1024 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA.

.HIGH 34N57W 1024 MB MOVING E 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N52W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.

.HIGH 55N44W 1015 MB MOVING NW 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N45W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 58N45W 1021 MB.

.HIGH 51N55W 1017 MB MOVING SE 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 48N48W 1018 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 47N41W 1018 MB.

.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE AUG 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED AUG 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU AUG 07.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NEAR 33.4N 72.9W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG
05 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE…180 NM SW QUADRANT
AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER
FORECAST WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W S TO
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NEAR 38.6N 66.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE.
CONDITIONS N OF FORECAST AREA. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 29N
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 44.1N
56.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS…60 NM NW
QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT. CONDITIONS N OF FORECAST AREA.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 48.5N
44.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 49.3N
28.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA NEAR 50.3N
14.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC FROM 13.5N TO 21N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 76.5W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W TO 74W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 76W
AND 78W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 71W AND 78W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

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2 thoughts on “US/Canada: Tropical Storm Bertha 051500Z near 34.8N 71.9W, moving NNE at 19 knots (NHC) – Updated 050814 1520z (UTC)

  1. CANADA

    WOCN31 CWHX 051745
    TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
    HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:47 PM ADT TUESDAY
    5 AUGUST 2014.
    ———————————————————————
    TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
    NEWFOUNDLAND.

    FOR TROPICAL STORM BERTHA.

    THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT.

    BERTHA TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY – RAINFALL
    STILL POSSIBLE FOR AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND WEDNESDAY
    NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

    ———————————————————————
    TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ENDED FOR:
    NOVA SCOTIA.

    NO EFFECTS IN NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT FOR SOME OCEAN SWELLS ALONG
    THE ATLANTIC COAST.

    ———————————————————————
    ==DISCUSSION==
    1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3.00 PM ADT.

    LOCATION: 35.8 NORTH 70.8 WEST.

    ABOUT 430 KILOMETRES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 KM/HOUR.

    PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST AT 38 KM/HOUR.

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB.

    2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

    THE TROPICAL STORM IS NOT VERY TROPICAL-LOOKING AT THIS STAGE BECAUSE
    OF STRONG WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. THESE WINDS ARE PUSHING THE
    TALL CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE STORM’S CIRCULATION AT THE OCEAN LEVEL.
    THIS AMOUNTS TO THE CENTER OF THE WIND CIRCULATION TRACKING FARTHER
    SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND THE MOISTURE HEADING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
    AND STILL POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE AVALON PENINSULA EARLY THURSDAY.

    A. WIND.

    THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AFFECTING THE AVALON PENINSULA IS DECREASING
    AS FAR AS EVERYTHING APPEARS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THERE ARE A
    COUPLE OF COMPUTER MODELS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY
    WINDS, BUT OVERALL IT IS QUITE LOW.

    HOWEVER, THESE STORMS ARE NOTORIOUSLY CHALLENGING TO PREDICT SO IT IS
    IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO THE FORECASTS IN CASE THE STORM STRUCTURE
    CHANGES.

    B. RAINFALL.

    IF THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THE STORM CROSSES THE AVALON PENINSULA,
    25 TO 50 MILLIMETRES FALLING OVER A FEW HOURS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
    EARLY THURSDAY IS POSSIBLE. UNLIKE MORE-POTENT STORMS IN THE PAST,
    THERE ARE NO WELL-DEFINED FRONTS WITH THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC SETUP
    TO ENHANCE RAINFALL IN ANY MAJOR WAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS
    DECREASING, BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING.

    C. SURGE/WAVES.

    THERE WILL BE SOME OCEAN SWELLS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
    SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND, BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THEY
    WILL BE OF MUCH CONCERN. ONE SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AT THE IMMEDIATE
    SHORELINE BECAUSE WAVES OF THIS NATURE CAN CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF AND
    CAN CATCH ONE OFF-GUARD AT LOCATIONS WHERE THE WATER DEPTH DROPS-OFF
    QUICKLY.

    3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

    STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EAST SCOTIAN SLOPES AND
    LAURENTIAN FAN. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE
    SOUTHERN MARITIMES MARINE WATERS. BERTHA WILL ALSO BRING GALE FORCE
    WINDS TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS.
    MARINERS SHOULD ANTICIPATE STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND
    BANKS. MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8 METRES WELL OFFSHORE ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
    THE STORM TRACK.

    SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING A TROPICAL-TYPE LOW NOT FAR
    BEHIND BERTHA. THIS COULD AFFECT THE WINDS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
    MARINE DISTRICTS. THAT LOW WOULD END UP TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH THAN
    BERTHA.

    VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
    LATEST:

    – FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

    – STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

    – HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

    – TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

    PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
    ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

    END/FOGARTY
    _______________________________________________
    http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/subscription_join_e.html

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