Japan: Severe Tropical Storm 1517 Kilo downgraded to LOW: 11/1200Z 43N 148E, moving N 25 knots (JMA) – Published 11 Sept 2015 1905z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Kilo

….downgraded to Low Pressure Area (LOW or LPA) (JMA)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1517-00

JPwarn

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

LOW
Issued at 12:35 UTC, 11 September 2015

<Analyses at 11/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
LOW
Center position N43°00′(43.0°)
E148°00′(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 980hPa

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2015 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm KILO (03C) currently located near 38.5 N 147.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 111200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW FORMER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1517 KILO (1517) 980 HPA
AT 43N 148E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 148E TO 43N 153E 38N 157E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 148E TO 40N 151E 38N 149E 36N 142E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 49N 150E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 54N 153E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 40N 142E
42N 142E 42N 143E 51N 157E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 45N 180E 40N
170E 37N 156E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 45N 138E NE 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 41N 138E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 115E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 17N 165E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 45N 167E SE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 115E TO 33N 121E 36N 126E 36N 129E 36N
132E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Australia (WA): Tropical Low moving off W Kimberley coast unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone (TCWC Perth) – Published 190115 1123z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Low

The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone (TCWC Perth)

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 5:43 pm WST Monday 19 January 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 14.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Kimberley low unlikely to become a tropical cyclone. Warnings cancelled but the system will be closely monitored.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: No active warning areas.

Watch zone: No active watch areas.

Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near centre 28 kilometres per hour with wind gusts 83 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 18.2 degrees South, 121.9 degrees East , 45 kilometres southwest of Broome and 420 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour .

The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone.

Hazards:

Sustained gales are not expected in coastal communities but areas of heavy rain are likely over the west Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Warnings for more details – http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Recommended Action:

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

ALL CLEAR: People in, near or between Cape Leveque and Mardie are advised that damaging winds are no longer expected.

Details:

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 5 pm January 19 tropical low 18.2S 121.9E 75
+6hr 11 pm January 19 tropical low 18.6S 120.7E 85
+12hr 5 am January 20 tropical low 19.2S 119.3E 100
+18hr 11 am January 20 tropical low 19.8S 117.6E 120
+24hr 5 pm January 20 tropical low 20.6S 115.7E 140
+36hr 5 am January 21 tropical low 21.6S 113.3E 175
+48hr 5 pm January 21 tropical low 22.6S 111.9E 215
+60hr 5 am January 22 tropical low 23.1S 110.9E 260
+72hr 5 pm January 22 tropical low XXX XXX XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.#

Western Australia Warnings Summary

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/index.shtml?ref=hdr

JTWC

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:18S122E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0952UTC 19 JANUARY 2015

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0900 UTC a tropical low was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal two south (18.2S)
longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal nine east (121.9E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 15 knots
Central pressure: 1003 hPa
The tropical low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

AREA AFFECTED
Nil.

FORECAST
Gales are no longer expected over marine areas

REMARKS

No further warnings will be issued unless the system intensifies.

WEATHER PERTH

There are other warnings at METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

US: Low Pressure Area (91L) off Florida Atlantic Coast: 80% chance of Tropical Cyclone formation in 48hrs (NHC) – Updated 300614 2312z

LOW PRESSURE AREA (Invest 91L) is now Tropical Storm ARTHUR
see http://wp.me/p2k2mU-2HR

 

Our change in the weather and how the jet stream is driving it

Official blog of the Met Office news team

After a quiet spell of weather courtesy of a slow moving area of high pressure, we are now entering an unsettled period as a series of Atlantic depressions are expected to pass close to the northwest of Britain during the next week.

High pressure has now moved away and is settled over Europe and a powerful jet stream is developing over the Atlantic which will be the main driving force behind this spell of unsettled weather.

What is the jet stream?

The jet stream is a band of fast moving westerly winds high up in the atmosphere which circle around the pole in the northern hemisphere. It can feature winds of up to 200 knots (230 mph) or more, and these winds tend to guide wet and windy weather systems which come in off the Atlantic.

The jet moves around a fair bit and its position can have a big…

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