Mexico/ Gulf of Mexico: CAT2 Hurricane KATIA 07/0600Z nr 21.6N 94.7W, moving ESE 2kt (NHC FL)- Published 07 Sep 2017 0810z (GMT/UTC)

HURRICANE KATIA

(=CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN..
could be near major hurricane strength at landfall..NHC

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO LAGUNA VERDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO RIO PANUCO
* SOUTH OF LAGUNA VERDE TO PUERTO VERACRUZ

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

Brownsville, TX Radar

Catedral Radar Mexico

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017

…KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…21.0N 95.8W
ABOUT 160 MI…255 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI…205 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco
* South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 95.8 West. Katia is moving
toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through landfall within the hurricane warning
area early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected and Katia
could be near major hurricane strength at landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the
north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and
Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi,
western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through
Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are
possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San
Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area by tonight or early Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning areas by
later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Carbin/Bann

NNN

 

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2017 15:00 GMT

Hurricane KATIA is currently located near 21.0 N 95.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). KATIA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. KATIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

=============================================================================

Triple Trouble: Cat 5 Irma, Cat 3 Jose, Cat 1 Katia

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0250

WTNT23 KNHC 081432
TCMAT3

HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO LAGUNA VERDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO RIO PANUCO
* SOUTH OF LAGUNA VERDE TO PUERTO VERACRUZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT……. 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 20NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT……. 50NE 60SE 55SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 95.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.6N 96.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT… 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.7N 97.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.1N 98.4W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 95.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CARBIN/BANN

 

=============================================================================

000
FZNT24 KNHC 081504
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-090315-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS…Hurricane Katia centered near 21.0N 95.8W 975 mb at
11 AM EDT moving WSW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts
105 kt. Katia is forecast to move to near 20.6N 96.4W this
evening, with maximum sustained wind of 85 kt gusts to 105 kt,
and inland near 19.7N 97.4W by early on Tuesday, with maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt. Katia will gradually weaken
as it moves further inland through Tuesday night. Major
Hurricane Irma is forecast to enter the eastern Straits of
Florida Saturday afternoon, then turn northward across the
Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday, bringing tropical
storm force and possibly hurricane force winds to eastern
portions of the Straits of Florida and Florida Bay in the far SE
Gulf late Sat into Sun.

 

$$

GMZ011-090315-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON…N to NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE…NW to N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft in the evening,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.

$$

GMZ013-090315-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON…N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

$$

GMZ015-090315-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TODAY…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NE winds 20 to
25 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 27N, N to
NE winds 25 to 30 kt, increasing to 35 to 40 kt late.
Elsewhere, NE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 11 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 27N, N winds 40 to
50 kt. Elsewhere, NE winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming N to NE 35 to
40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.TUE…SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ017-090315-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in mixed
NE and SW swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW to N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ019-090315-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SAT…NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ021-090315-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N to NE winds
20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Straits of Florida,
N to NE winds 40 to 45 kt, becoming N 55 to 65 kt in the
afternoon. Elsewhere, N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. Straits of Florida,
NW to N winds 85 to 105 kt. Seas 17 to 19 ft. Elsewhere, N winds
30 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. Straits of Florida, NW to
N winds 50 to 55 kt, becoming NW 30 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 19 ft, subsiding to 10 to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Elsewhere, NW to N winds 35 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 13
ft.
.SUN NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.MON…NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
.TUE…SW to W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…S to SW winds 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ023-090315-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…HURRICANE CONDITIONS. SW to W winds 65 to 75 kt. Seas
14 to 19 ft S of 21N W of 95W, and 16 to 20 ft elsewhere.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT…HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 21N W of 95W, SW
to W winds 65 to 75 kt, shifting to S to SW 60 to 70 kt late.
Seas 19 to 22 ft. Elsewhere, SE winds 55 to 60 kt, becoming E 30
to 35 kt late. Seas 15 to 18 ft, subsiding to 9 to 12 ft late.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SAT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 21N W of 95W, E
winds 35 to 40 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 to 14 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Elsewhere,
NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in
the afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms.
.SAT NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
.MON…NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ025-090315-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
1104 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.TODAY…Within 60 nm of coast of Campeche, E to SE winds 5 to
10 kt, shifting to SW towards evening. Elsewhere, SE to S winds
10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SAT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less Within 60 nm
of coast of Campeche, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT…NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

Forecaster Aguirre

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Mexico: Tropical Storm Franklin – ⚠️ Hurricane Warning for MX coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL) – Published 09 Aug 2017 1040z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan (NHC FL)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco (NHC FL)

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen (NHC FL)
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo (NHC FL)

Traducción al español (haga clic aquí)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTNT32 KNHC 090838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

…FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MODIFIED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO…

 

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico north of Rio Panuco to Barra del Tordo. The
Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the
coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican
state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the
coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. The Mexican automated station at Cayo Arenas,
located to the north-northeast of the center, recently reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph
(81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern
Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in
eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the
Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Mexico by this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

=============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FRANKLIN is currently located near 20.4 N 92.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). FRANKLIN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Coatzacoalcos (18.2 N, 94.4 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

Landfall #2 Coming Up: Franklin Enters Bay of Campeche (Category 6 website)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: NHC FL)

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0837

WTNT22 KNHC 090837
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017
0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF RIO PANUCO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING EAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO RIO PANUCO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TO CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TUXPAN TO BARRA DEL TORDO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 96.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 98.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

Mexico/ Bay Of Campeche: Tropical Storm DOLLY (05L): 022100Z near 22.0N 97.0W , moving W at 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 020914 2104z (UTC)

Tropical Storm DOLLY (05L)

…CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) North Atlantic Surface Temp (Click image for source)

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021755
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

…CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH…
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.0N 96.5W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF DOLLY IS REFORMING SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.

AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING…AND MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM
FROM THE CENTER…MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007
MB…29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON…AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 2 Sep, 2014 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DOLLY (AL05) currently located near 22.0 N 97.0 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

Other

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Dolly in Gulf of Mexico; Watching Eastern Pacific

Stu Ostro / wunderground.com
Published: September 2, 2014
– Tropical Depression Five upgraded to Tropical Storm Dolly

– Center relocated about 100 miles northwest of previous NHC estimate

– Tropical Storm Warning issued for the coast of Mexico centered on Tampico

GULF OF MEXICO: TROPICAL STORM DOLLY

Hurricane Hunters investigating Tropical Depression Five this morning found winds easily strong enough to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Dolly, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Perhaps most interesting is the finding by the Hurricane Hunters that the center had reformed about 100 miles west-northwest of the previous estimate from NHC. Strangely NHC located the center at 22.4N 94.4W at 2 am (based on early aircraft information) but the Hurricane Hunters just estimated the center about 80 miles southwest of this near 21.5N 95.3W. Regardless, the center is jumping around, not all that uncommon of developing systems. The core of Dolly will still remain south of the U.S.

(MORE:�Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast)

Strong northerly winds aloft continue to blow thunderstorms to the southeast of Dollys center. Winds at 3,000 feet about 50 miles southeast of the new circulation were measured at 60 mph by the Hurricane Hunters, which reduces to about 45 mph near the ocean surface. The instrument on the bottom of the plane is also estimating winds at the surface in the 45-50 mph range, so NHC is setting the winds at 45 mph for now. Some strengthening is possible tomorrow as Dolly approaches the coast of Mexico.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for a small stretch of coastline centered on Tampico in the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico. Only modest strengthening is expected before it moves inland on Wednesday. The primary impact will be heavy rainfall as the system approaches Mexico late Tuesday.

Previous update: The system will be guided westward under a strong dome of high pressure to the north. It only has a 24-48 hour window over water before moving inland over Mexico. Regardless of development, the difference in pressure between Dolly and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will establish a strong southeast to northwest flow sweeping toward the Texas coast, which will bring abundant tropical moisture to the Lower Rio Grande Valley by the middle part of the week.

(MORE:Glossary of Tropical Terms�|�New�NHC�Storm Surge Maps)

The main impacts in the U.S. will a high risk for rip currents along the lower Texas coast, including South Padre Island, and the potential for heavy rainfall on Tuesday into Wednesday from Brownsville to Corpus Christi.

/ wunderground.com

MARITIME/SHIPPING

Graphicast Atlantic

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2043

WTNT25 KNHC 022043
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 97.0W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 97.0W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 96.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N 98.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 99.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 97.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH=

METAREA4 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1608

FZNT01 KWBC 021608
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

SECURITE

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 02
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 03
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 04

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL INLAND 59N77W 979 MB. FROM 60N TO 62N
W OF 61W AREA OF E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE W
OF A LINE FROM 63N64W TO 60N57W TO 53N50W TO 46N60W WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST INLAND LOW 60N74W 982 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
62N65W TO 60N56W TO 57N54W TO 50N61W TO 46N65W. WITHIN 120 NM N
OF FRONT N OF 60N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM NE AND E OF FRONT N OF 56N AND WITHIN 360 NM E OF
FRONT S OF 56N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 63N60W 992 MB.
WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND BETWEEN 240 NM AND 420
NM S QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

…GALE WARNING…
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 52N52W 1002 MB. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
61N47W TO 57N47W TO LOW CENTER TO 45N54W. WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
300 NM E OF FRONT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW 62N37W 990 MB MOVING E 10 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
420 NM S AND 150 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8
TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 62N29W 1000 MB. FROM 55N TO 59N
E OF 39W AREA OF W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.FROM 53N TO 63N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W AREA OF NW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH LOW E OF AREA 62N29W
ABOVE.

.LOW 38N34W 1010 MB JUST E OF AREA MOVING SE 10 KT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM W AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS E OF AREA.

.LOW 43N53W 1011 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM
S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N50W 1015 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 42N TO 44N
BETWEEN 47W AND 53W AND FROM 41N TO 44N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG W OF A LINE FROM 62N60W TO 57N48W TO
46N59W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 240 NM E OF A LINE FROM
60N48W TO 52N53W TO 42N54W.

.HIGH 34N57W 1024 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N57W 1022 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 32N59W 1022 MB.

.HIGH 49N52W 1021 MB MOVING E 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N44W 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 50N35W 1025 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 32N68W 1023 MB.

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 04.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM DOLLY NEAR 23.4N 96.5W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
02 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE…30 NM NE QUADRANT AND
60 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INLAND NEAR 24.5N 99.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT…100 NM SE QUADRANT…0 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY INLAND NEAR 24.8N
100.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 81W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/maps/gulfmexico/mappage.htm

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country�s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Mexico: Tropical Depression forms in SW Bay of Campeche. Tropical Storm Warning for Gulf Coast from Veracruz to Tampico (NHC) – 250813 2115z

Tropical Depression 6 (was Invest 95L)

(Desplácese hacia abajo para la traducción al español)

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm centred satellite image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

Last Updated: 25 August 2013, 22:00:00 (GMT Standard Time)
Wind: 55 KPH
Location: 19.5N 95.5W
Movement: W
Pressure: 1006 MB
Learn more about Tropical Depression Six and the 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season here.


Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
————————————————————————
21 GMT 08/25/13 19.5N 95.5W 35 1006 Tropical Depression

(Image: smn.cna.gob.mx) Alvarado Radar, Mexico (Click image for source)

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center

(Image: NHC)

WTNT31 KNHC 252057
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER   1…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GULF COAST OF
MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO TAMPICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H. A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
LANDFALL…AND WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER VERACRUZ…HIDALGO…NORTHERN PUEBLA…SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS…AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN A FEW HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

TSR logoN Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 25 Aug, 2013 21:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AL06 (AL06) currently located near 19.5 N 95.5 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Tropical Depression Six Forms in the Gulf of Mexico – Wunderground Blog

 

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:19 PM GMT on August 25, 2013 +16

 

The tropical wave that crossed over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and entered the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche over the weekend has rapidly spun up into Tropical Depression Six, according to surface, satellite, and radar data. Satellite loops show that TD 6 is a small storm, and heavy rainfall will be the main threat. Radar images from Alvarado, Mexico show heavy rain bands from TD 6 are already over land, and the 4 – 8 inches of rain TD 6 will bring to the coast is capable of creating flash flooding and dangerous mud slides. The depression has precious little time to develop before moving inland over Mexico near Veracruz early Monday morning, but with low wind shear, warm waters of 30°C, and the topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico to help it spin up, TD 6 will probably be Tropical Storm Fernand Sunday night. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate the depression Sunday evening.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Six as it was organizing, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on August 25, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

I’ll have a more detailed look at the tropics on Monday. It looks like it might be knuckle-gnawing time for residents of the Atlantic’s hurricane alley next week, as an active pattern moves into place for the climatological peak two-week period of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

Spanish (Translated by Google) Español (Traducido por Google)

Depresión Tropical 6 (se Invest 95L)

(Desplácese HACIA Abajo Para La Traducción al español)

(Imagen: wunderground.com) imagen de satélite centrada Storm (Click en la imagen para la fuente)

(Imagen: wunderground.com) Previsión 5 días (Click en la imagen para la fuente)

Última actualización: 25 de agosto de 2013, 22:00:00 (GMT Standard Time)
Viento: 55 KPH
Ubicación: 19.5N 95.5W
Movimiento: W
Presión: 1006 MB
Más información sobre la Depresión Tropical Seis y la temporada 2013 de huracanes del Atlántico del Norte aquí.

Tiempo Lat Lon Wind (mph) Presión tipo Storm
————————————————– ———————-
21 GMT 08/25/13 19.5N 95.5W 35 1006 Depresión Tropical

(Imagen: smn.cna.gob.mx) Radar Alvarado, México (Click en la imagen para la fuente)

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional

Centro Nacional de Huracanes

(Imagen: NHC)

WTNT31 TJSJ 252057
TCPSP1

BOLETÍN
DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO SEIS DE ASESORAMIENTO 1 … CORREGIDO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062013
400 PM CDT dom 25 de agosto 2013

RELOJES corregido y ADVERTENCIAS SECCIÓN

DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL … FORMAS EN LA BAHÍA DEL SUROESTE DE CAMPECHE …
… AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DE EMISIÓN PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE
MEXICO …

RESUMEN DE LAS 400 PM CDT … 2100 UTC … INFORMACIÓN
———————————————-
UBICACIÓN … 19.5N 95.5W
ACERCA DE MI 50 … 80 KM ENE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 35 MPH … 55 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … W O 270 GRADOS A 12 MPH … 19 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1006 MB … 29.71 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA …

EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA
COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DE VERACRUZ A TAMPICO.

RESUMEN DE LOS RELOJES Y AVISOS EN EFECTO …

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA …
* COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE VERACRUZ NORTE HASTA TAMPICO

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO … EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LA
PROXIMAS 12 A 18 HORAS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA … FAVOR MONITOREAR
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 400 PM CDT … 2100 UTC … EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS FUE
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.5 NORTE … LONGITUD 95.5 OESTE. LA
DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH … 19 KM / H. La
HACIA EL OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE movimiento con alguna disminución en ADELANTE
VELOCIDAD SE ESPERA DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. EN LA PREVISIÓN
TRAYECTORIA … EL CENTRO DEBE CRUZAR LA COSTA DE MEXICO EN LA ATENCIÓN
AREA DE PRIMERA Lunes.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH … 55 KM / H…WITH SUPERIOR
RAFAGAS. LA DEPRESION SE ESPERA QUE CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL ANTES
TIERRA … Y DEBILITAMIENTO comenzará después CENTRO mueve tierra adentro.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MB … 29.71 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
LLUVIA … LA DEPRESION SE PREVÉ QUE PRODUZCA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS DE
RAIN OVER VERACRUZ … HIDALGO … NORTE SUR DE PUEBLA …
TAMAULIPAS … Y ESTE DE SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO … CON AISLADO
CANTIDADES MAXIMAS CERCA DE 12 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR
PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de lodo.

SE ESPERA DE VIENTO … CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA DISTRIBUIR EN LA
COSTA DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN UNAS HORAS.

SIGUIENTE AVISO
————-
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA … 700 PM CDT.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA … 1000 PM CDT.

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR PASCH / STEWART
Warning Center del tifón común (JTWC)

TSR de inicio de sesión del Atlántico: Alerta de Tormenta emitido al 25 de agosto 2013 21:00 GMT

Depresión Tropical AL06 (AL06) Actualmente se encuentra cerca de 19,5 N 95,5 W se prevé una huelga tierra a la siguiente verosimilitud (s) en el tiempo de espera determinado (s):

Yellow Country Alert (s) o provincia (s)
México
probabilidad de TS es de 60% dentro de 9 horas
Alerta amarilla City (s) y Ciudad (s)
Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
probabilidad de TS es de 60% dentro de 9 horas

Tenga en cuenta que
Alerta amarilla (elevada) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10% y 30% de probabilidad, o TS a por encima de 50% de probabilidad.
CAT 1 significa vientos de huracán de fuerza de por lo menos 74 mph, 119 km / ho 64 nudos 1-min sostenida.
TS significa tormenta tropical vientos de fuerza de por lo menos 39 mph, de 63 km / ho 34 nudos 1-min sostenida.

Para obtener información sobre el pronóstico gráfica y más detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Depresión Tropical Seis formas en el Golfo de México – Wunderground Blog
Publicado por: Dr. Jeff Masters, 21:19 GMT del 25 de agosto 2013

16

La onda tropical que cruzó la península de Yucatán México y entró en el Golfo de México de la Bahía de Campeche el fin de semana ha girado rápidamente en depresión tropical Seis, según la superficie, satélite, radar y datos. Bucles de satélite muestran que TD 6 es una pequeña tormenta y fuertes lluvias serán la principal amenaza. Imágenes de radar de Alvarado, México muestran bandas fuertes lluvias de TD 6 ya están sobre la tierra, y el 4 – 8 pulgadas de lluvia TD 6 traerá a la costa es capaz de crear inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra peligrosos. La depresión tiene muy poco tiempo para desarrollar antes de trasladarse hacia el interior sobre México cerca de Veracruz la madrugada del lunes, pero con baja cizalladura del viento, las aguas cálidas de 30 ° C, y la topografía del sur del Golfo de México para ayudarlo a girar, TD 6 se probablemente la tormenta tropical Fernand domingo por la noche. Un avión caza huracanes Fuerza Aérea investigará el domingo por la noche la depresión.

Figura 1. Imagen de satélite MODIS de la Depresión Tropical Seis, ya que estaba organizando, tomada a las 12:30 pm EDT el 25 de agosto de 2013. Crédito de la imagen: NASA.

Voy a tener una visión más detallada de los trópicos para el Lunes. Parece que podría ser nudillos roer tiempo para los residentes del huracán callejuela próxima semana del Atlántico, como un patrón activo se mueve en su lugar para el pico climatológico período de dos semanas de la temporada de huracanes del Atlántico.

Jeff Masters

Mexico: Bus ‘tumbles’ 200-300 metres (650-1000 feet) from mountain road after collision nr Naolinco, 12 dead, 15 injured – 310313 1535z

At least 12 people died when a bus and a car collided in a mountainous part of the eastern Mexican state of Veracruz on Saturday evening, local emergency services said.

Photo: Reuters

Photo: zenfs.com

 

The accident near the town of Naolinco sent the bus tumbling down a slope some 200-300 metres (650-1000 feet), and left at least 15 passengers injured, a local official said.

Emergency services believe there were 27 people travelling on board the bus, the official added.
The crash occurred at a bend in the road in foggy conditions, and preliminary evidence suggested the driver of the car that hit the bus fled the scene, he said.
Lethal traffic accidents are common on Mexican roads, claiming hundreds of lives a year. Last April at least 43 people were killed when a cargo truck hit a bus in Veracruz state.
Sunday, 31 March, 2013 at 10:47 (10:47 AM) UTC RSOE

#CARLOTTA NOW A REMNANT LOW OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF #MEXICO, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS – CARLOTTA AHORA UN REMANENTE DE BAJA SOBRE EL TERRENO DE ALTA DE MEXICO, LIFE-INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS POSIBLE por varios días más(NHCAdv13) – Updated 17 June 2012 1930 GMT/UTC

�E�E�E�
�E�E�E�

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Tropical Storm CARLOTTA Coastal Watches/Warnings
and 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

 

(Image:smn.cna.gob.mx)
Acapulco Radar
(Click image for animation/source)

American Red Cross hurricane preparedness page

Preparaci�E��E��E� para hurc�E�E�E�n�E�E�E�Cruz Roja Americana (Spanish-language version)

Hurricane and severe weather checklist for boaters

Warning: Hurricane #Carlotta eye next to #PuertoAngel, #Mexico NOAA Image:�E��E� 1745 Mexico Time

Acercamiento imagen satel #Carlotta a las 17:45 notar cercanía ojo a Puerto Ángel vía ssd.noaa.gov

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 170234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

CARLOTTA NOW A REMNANT LOW OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO…
…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.1N 100.3W
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM ENE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…25 MPH…35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 PM PDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH…
LONGITUDE 100.3 WEST.  THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H…AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION
UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH…35 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…100 TO 200 MM…THROUGH MONDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES…375 MM…ARE POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON MARINE
CONDITIONS RELATED TO THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
MEXICO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND INLAND
FLOODING.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

000
WTPZ33 TJSJ 170234
TCPEP3

BOLETÍN
DESPUÉS DE CICLONES TROPICALES CARLOTTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PST SAT 16 de junio 2012

AHORA … CARLOTTA UN REMANENTE DE BAJA SOBRE EL TERRENO DE ALTA DE MEXICO …
… PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS permitido a varias
MÁS DÍAS …

RESUMEN DE LAS 800 PM PDT … 0300 UTC … INFORMACIÓN
———————————————-
UBICACIÓN 18.1N 100.3W …
ACERCA DE MI 90 … 145 KM DE ENE ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS … 25 MPH … 35 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL … ESE O 295 GRADOS A 5 MPH … 7 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL … 1006 MB … 29.71 PULGADAS

RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
——————–
No hay relojes costeras o los avisos vigentes.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
——————————
A LAS 800 PM PDT … 0300 UTC … EL CENTRO DE POST-DE CICLONES TROPICALES
CARLOTTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO SOBRE TIERRA MÉXICO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.1 NORTE …
LONGITUD 100.3 OESTE. LA BAJA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE
CERCA DE 5 MPH … 7 KM / H. .. y debe continuar ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL
Hasta que se disipa.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 25 MPH … 35 KM / H. .. CON MAYOR
RAFAGAS. LA BAJA RESTO SE espera que se disipe EL DOMINGO.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1006 MB … 29.71 PULGADAS.

RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-
LLUVIA … CARLOTTA SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA
ACUMULACIONES DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS … 100 a 200 mm … HASTA EL LUNES
Partes del sur de MEXICO. CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE LA TORMENTA
15 PULGADAS … 375 mm … SON POSIBLES. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR
PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS.

PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
————-
ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA EMITIDA POR EL HURACÁN NACIONAL
CENTRO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA OBTENER MÁS INFORMACIÓN SOBRE EL MAR
Condiciones relacionadas con el REMANENTE DE BAJA POR FAVOR VER EN ALTA MAR
PREVISIONES EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA … bajo AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI Y ENCABEZADO WMO FZPN01 KWBC.

CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE
MÉXICO PARA OBTENER INFORMACIÓN ADICIONAL ACERCA DE LLUVIA INTENSA Y en el interior
INUNDACIONES.

$ $
PRONOSTICADOR BERG

COMISIÓN NACIONAL DEL AGUASERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL DE MÉXICO

 

   
  Aviso de difusión inmediata deCiclón Tropical del Océano Pacífico

 

   
  México, D.F. a 16 de junio de 2012Aviso No. 22

Emisión:  22:00 horas

 
       
 

El Servicio Meteorológico Nacional dependiente de la CONAGUA (fuente oficial del Gobierno de

México) en el marco del Sistema Nacional de Protección Civil, informa:

 

 

SECCIÓN A. CONDICIONES ACTUALES

CICLÓN TROPICAL

REMANENTES DE LA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL �gCARLOTTA�h

SITUACIÓN ACTUAL

�gCARLOTTA�h COMIENZA A DISIPARSE SOBRE LA ZONA MONTAÑOSA DEL OCCIDENTE DE GUERRERO

ZONA DE ALERTA

INDICE DE PELIGROSIDAD

 MODERADO

HORA LOCAL (HORA GMT)

22:00 HORAS LOCAL (03 GMT DEL DÍA 17)

UBICACIÓN DEL CENTRO DEL CICLÓN

COORDENADAS: 18.1�� LAT. NORTE

100.3�� LONG. OESTE

DISTANCIA AL LUGAR MÁS CERCANO

EN TIERRA, A 25 km AL SUR DE ARCELIA, GRO.

DESPLAZAMIENTO ACTUAL

HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE (295��) A 7 km/h

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

SOSTENIDOS: 35 km/h

RACHAS: 55 km/h

PRESIÓN MÍNIMA CENTRAL

1006 hPa

DIAMETRO DEL OJO

DIAMETRO DE FUERTE CONVECCIÓN

CON IMAGEN INFRAROJA: SE OBSERVA NUBOSIDAD DESORGANIZADA QUE CUBRE EL SUR, CENTRO Y OCCIDENTE DEL PAIS

COMENTARIOS ADICIONALES

LA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL �gCARLOTTA�h A COMENZADO A DISPARSE SOBRE EL OCCIDENTE DE GUERRERO, Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE COMO BAJA PRESION REMANENTE DURANTE EL DIA DE MAÑANA EN ESTA REGION.AÚN ORIGINA NUBLADOS DISORGANIZADOS QUE CUBREN LOS ESTADOS DE JALISCO, COLIMA, MICHOACAN, GUERRERO, OAXACA, CHIAPAS, VERACRUZ, PUEBLA, TLAXCALA, HIDALGO, QUERÉTARO, GUANAJUATO, MÉXICO, DISTRITO FEDERAL Y MORELOS, GENERANDO LLUVIAS. LAS CUALES PUEDEN SER FUERTES A INTENSAS CON TORMENTAS ELÉCTRICAS, PRINCIPALMENTE EN OAXACA, GUERRERO Y MICHOACÁN. SE RECOMIENDA EXTREMAR PRECAUCIONES POR INUNDACIONES Y DESLAVES DE TERRENO.

ELABORÓ: MARTÍN TÉLLEZ SAUCEDO

REVISÓ: RAÚL RIVERA PALACIOS.

EL SIGUIENTE AVISO DE DIFUSIÓN INMEDIATA SE EMITIRÁ:

POR SUS CONDICIONES DE DEBILITAMIENTO ESTE ES EL ÚLTIMO AVISO DE �gCARLOTTA�h. A PARTIR DE ESTE MOMENTO SE RECOMIENDA CONSULTAR LOS DIFERENTES BOLETINES EMITIDOS POR EL SMN.
 

Press Coverage:

OAXACA, Mexico, June 16, 2012 (AFP) – Two girls were killed when their house collapsed in southwestern Mexico in a mudslide under heavy rains unleashed by Hurricane Carlotta, local officials said Saturday.

The two sisters — aged seven and 13 — died in Oaxaca, after Carlotta made landfall late Friday as a category one storm on the five-point Saffir-Simpson scale, the state institute of Civil Protection said.

FULL STORY HERE

OAXACA, México, junio 16, 2012 (AFP) – Dos niñas murieron cuando su casa se derrumbó en el suroeste de México en un alud de lodo en las fuertes lluvias desencadenadas por el huracán Carlotta, dijeron funcionarios locales el sábado.

Las dos hermanas – de siete años y 13 – murió en Oaxaca, después de Carlotta tocó tierra la noche del viernes como una tormenta de categoría uno en la de cinco puntos de Saffir-Simpson, del Instituto Estatal de Protección Civil, dijo.

NOTICIA COMPLETA AQUI