Reunion: Tropical Cyclone Dumazile (11S) 061500Z position nr 25.4S 55.1E, moving SE 14kt (JTWC) – Updated 06 Mar 2018 1652z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile (11S)

(Is a storm equivent to a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Dumazile) Warning #17
Issued at 06/1500Z

sh11182

 

Google Earth Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
061200Z — NEAR 25.0S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 54.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 26.8S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 28.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
405 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 30.0S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 32.3S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
425 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 39.7S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 55.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM SOUTH
OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
ASYMMETRIC WITH WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE EYE
FEATURE HAS BECOME TOTALLY CLOUD-FILLED. IN VIEW OF THIS, THE INITIAL
POSITION HAS BEEN MORE DIFFICULT TO POSITION, AIDED ONLY BY A LOW
RESOLUTION 060955Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO
REFLECT AN LLC THAT REMAINS TIGHT DESPITE THE WEAKENING CONVECTION.TC
11S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VWS.
HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION TO
THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE, FOR NOW, CONDUCIVE AT
28C. AS DUMAZILE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND SSTS TO COOL RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN ETT BY TAU 36 AND BY TAU 72 WILL
TRANSITION INTO A 40-KNOT COLD-CORE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH AN
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

METEOSAT Imagery – Synoptic

.

METEO FRANCE La Réunion
trajectoire1

 

WTIO31 FMEE 061307
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/6/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DUMAZILE)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.7 S / 53.9 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :69 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 570 SE: 720 SO: 460 NO: 430
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 430 SO: 350 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
24H: 07/03/2018 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
36H: 08/03/2018 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
48H: 08/03/2018 12 UTC: 32.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
60H: 09/03/2018 00 UTC: 36.2 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 09/03/2018 12 UTC: 40.3 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2018 12 UTC: 51.0 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.5+
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME A CLAIREMENT EVOLUE CET APRESMIDI
VERS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE ENCORE INCLUS EN
BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE. EN SE BASANT SUR L’ANALYSE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DU CMRS, L’INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 70 KT. EN L’ABSENCE
D’IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES RECENTE, LA POSITION ANALYSEE EST RELATIVEMENT
INCERTAINE.
L’EVOLUTION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE TRADUIT UNE AUGMENTATION
SIGNIFICATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D’OUEST. L’IMAGERIE VAPEUR D’EAU SUGGERE
QUE LE SYSTEME INTERAGIT AVEC LE TALWEG D’ALTITUDE PRESENT DANS SON
SECTEUR SUD-OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A
PERDRE DES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES EN COURS DE NUIT
PROCHAINE.
LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN CONTOURNANT LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHÈRE. TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, IL
RESTE, JUSQU’EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, EN INTERACTION FAVORABLE AVEC UN
TALWEG D’ALTITUDE SITUE DANS SON SECTEUR OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT
ENTRETENIR DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS (COUP DE VENT A TEMPETE AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION). A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL N’Y A PLUS DE PHASAGE AVEC LA
DYNAMIQUE D’ALTITUDE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT
AVANT DE SE FONDRE DANS LA CIRCULATION D’OUEST. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES RESTE PLUTOT FAIBLE, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. L’INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE EN FIN D’ECHEANCE,
QUAND LE SYSTEME EST REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D’OUEST EN
DIRECTION DE L’ILE DE KERGUELEN QUI POURRAIT CONNAITRE UNE
DEGRADATION DU TEMPS EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 6 Mar, 2018 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DUMAZILE is currently located near 25.0 S 54.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). DUMAZILE is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DUMAZILE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Reunion
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

201811s_01

Current Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities:

 

Current probability of Cat 1 or above winds:

 

 

Other

 

(Above image: @wunderground)

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 061225
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 53.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO MORE THAN 550 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 230
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 310 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 390 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 00 UTC:
26.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/07 AT 12 UTC:
28.4 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

QIO26 FIMP 061245

1:31:08:11:00

SECURITE

 

 

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII (S) METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

MAURITIUS, ISSUED ON TUESDAY 06 MARCH 2018 AT 1240 UTC.

 

 

PART 1: TTT WARNING OF GALE FORCE.

NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS TOGETHER

WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITH HEAVY SWELLS EXIST IN AREA BOUNDED

BY LATITUDES 20S TO 30S AND LONGITUDES 55E TO 63E.

STRONG GUST UNDER SQUALLS.

 

 

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS OBSERVED AT 1200 UTC ON TUESDAY 06 MARCH

2018.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE ‘DUMAZILE’ 960 HPA WAS CENTERED NEAR 24.7 S AND 53.9

E MOVEMENT SOUTH SOUTH EASTERLY 08 KT.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 05S 60E, 06S 66E, 07S 70E.

WAVE NEAR 11S 69E, 12S 93E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 19S 56E, 23S 59E, 26S 57E INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE

‘DUMAZILE’.

ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS ALONG 18S 59E, 22S 61E, 27S 58E INTO TROPICAL

CYCLONE ‘ DUMAZILE’

REMNANT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM AXIS ALONG 25S 73E, 24S 82E, 25S 90E.

HIGH 1029 HPA NEAR 38S 71E.

 

 

PART 3: AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO WEDNESDAY 07 MARCH 2018 AT 1200

UTC.

 

 

WEST 8/1: AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART 1.

 

REMAINDER 8/1: EAST NORTH EASTERLY TO NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 GUSTING

30. SEA ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN

THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/2: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH. SOUTH EASTERLY

TO EASTERLY 15-25 IN SOUTH. SEA MODERATE IN NORTH, ROUGH IN SOUTH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL SYSTEM

AXIS, SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS

BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/3: CLOCKWISE 10-15 AROUND WAVE IN NORTH EAST. EASTERLY TO EAST

NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN REMAINING EAST. NORTH WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY

10-20 GUSTING 30 IN WEST. SEA MODERATE BECOMING ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY

ROUGH IN EXTREME SOUTH WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH WEST AND NORTH EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS

ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

 

 

8/4: VARIABLE 05-10 IN EXTREME NORTH. EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY

10-20 ELSEWHERE. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME NORTH EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/5: NORTH WESTERLY TO WESTERLY . SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY

SHOWERS.

 

 

8/6: NORTHERLY TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 05 IN EAST. NORTH WESTERLY TO

WESTERLY 05-10 IN WEST. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. VISIBILITY

MODERATE IN SHOWERS BECOMING POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.

 

 

8/7: EAST NORTH EASTERLY BACKING TO NORTH NORTH WESTERLY 10-20. SEA

MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS

 

 

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS:

WIND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN REMAINING 8/1.=

 

=============================================================================

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Rodrigues /Mauritius /LaReunion /Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone #Eleven (11S) 082100Z position nr 15.2S 69.8E, moving W 05kt (JTWC) – Published 08 Mar 2017 2100z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Eleven (11S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 15.2S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 70.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 15.3S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 15.8S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 16.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.7S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 21.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 24.8S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 28.2S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
AND A 081732Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE PREVIOUSLY FRAGMENTED CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND
CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 081732Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING THE TIGHT LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM OF T2.5-3.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A SMALL BUT DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). SSTS ALSO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION WITH TEMPS
OBSERVED NEAR 30C. SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AT
THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH, STEERING TC 11S SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE TIME
BEING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S ARE CURRENTLY
PROVIDING SOME PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
DISPLACING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFF THE LLCC, AND
LIMITING POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AS UPPER-
LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS REESTABLISHED BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT
TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC11S WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWEST AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND THE STEERING SHIFTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FOREWORD MOTION AFTER
TAU 36 DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE SYSTEM TO THE EAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TRACK, WITH SOME INITIAL DISAGREEMENT OF
THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS 14 FEET. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

=============================================================================

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
RSMC / CENTER OF LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONES
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING CYCLONE (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) NEWSLETTER
0.A NEWSLETTER: 9/7/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION HAS 1800 UTC ON 03/08/2017:
WITHIN A RADIUS OF 20 MINUTES AROUND THE POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(SIXTY TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DEGREES ZERO‘S)
DISPLACEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A WIND MAX (MEDIUM/10 MIN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): VOID
6.A WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM) EXTENSION:
28 KT ONLY: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO.: 0
7.A SIDE/DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION PORTRAIT OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: AVERAGE
1.B FORECASTS:
12 H: 03/09/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
24: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
36H: 10 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 10 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 11 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 11 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
2.B TREND FURTHER:
96H: 12 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
120H: 13 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
2.C COMMENTS:
T = 2.5, CI = 2.5
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS GENERALLY IMPROVING BUT IT IS
A VERY RECENT. THE N18 1416Z WATCH AGAIN PASS A CENTER EXPOSES A
WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND IT IS SINCE SHORTLY BEFORE 17Z ONLY ONE
BURST OF CONVECTION TAKES PLACE VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THE ASCAT PASS OF THE
EVENING CONFIRMS INTENSITY ANALYZED. IF THIS TREND IS CONSOLIDATING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SMALL
WINDOW OF FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY
THE MINIMUM SE MOVED SLOWLY IN THE WEST BRANCH UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW/MEDIUM RIDGE
TROPOSPHERE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH EAST OF THE BASIN. TOMORROW NIGHT, THE
MODELS AVAILABLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO PREDICT A TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES, WHICH CAUSES A
UNCERTAINTY AVERAGE WELL REPORTED BY THE DISPERSION OF THE FORECAST
OVERVIEW OF THE CEP. THIS WEEKEND, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER HIS
PATH ON THE SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED UP BYPASSING THIS RIDGE.
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE HAS ITS
ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING ALTITUDE, WHICH MAKES FORECASTING
HARD INTENSITY. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT, THE ASCENT OF A THALWEG
ALTITUDE FROM THE MIDDLE LATITUDES (WAVE SURGE OF)
ROSSBY) CAUSES THE APPEARANCE OF A SECTOR MODERATE CONSTRAINT
NORTH. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA, MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALLOW IT TO LIMIT ITS
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVOURABLE, WITHOUT WEAKENING
INFLUENCE ON BAROCLINIC NET DYNAMICS OF ALTITUDE. IN THE PROCESS OF
WEEKEND WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE THALWEG OF ALTITUDE AND MAINTAINING
A GREAT DIFFERENCE POLAR, THE SYSTEM COULD BE

REINTENSIFIER.

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/7/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 7
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 10/03/2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
48H: 10/03/2017 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
60H: 11/03/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
72H: 11/03/2017 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
120H: 13/03/2017 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=2.5 CI=2.5
LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE EST GLOBALEMENT EN AMELIORATION MAIS C’EST
TRES RECENT. LA PASS N18 DE 1416Z MONTRE ENCORE UN CENTRE EXPOSE A
L’OUEST DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE, ET C’EST DEPUIS PEU AVANT 17Z QU’UN
BURST DE CONVECTION A LIEU TRES PRES DU CENTRE. LA PASS ASCAT DE LA
SOIREE CONFIRME L’INTENSITE ANALYSEE. SI CETTE TENDANCE SE CONSOLIDE
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT PROFITER DE LA PETITE
FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR S’INTENSIFIER PLUS
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
LE MINIMUM SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L’OUEST SOUS
L’INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES/MOYENNES
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE SUR LA PARTIE SUD-EST DU BASSIN. DEMAIN SOIR, LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT EN BON ACCORD POUR PREVOIR UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD MAIS AVEC DES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING, CE QUI PROVOQUE UNE
INCERTITUDE MOYENNE BIEN BALISEE PAR LA DISPERSION DE LA PREVISION
D’ENSEMBLE DU CEP. CE WEEK-END, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA
TRAJECTOIRE SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET
ACCELERER EN CONTOURNANT CETTE DORSALE.
LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME LE REND PARTICULIEREMENT SENSIBLE A SON
ENVIRONNEMENT, NOTAMMENT EN ALTITUDE, CE QUI REND LA PREVISION
D’INTENSITE DIFFICILE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, LA REMONTEE D’UN THALWEG
D’ALTITUDE DEPUIS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES (DEFERLEMENT D’ONDE DE
ROSSBY) PROVOQUE L’APPARITION D’UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR
NORD. SELON LES DERNIERES DONNEES MODELES, LE DEPLACEMENT
RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE LIMITER SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU SEIN DE CET ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS FAVORABLE, SANS
INFLUENCE BAROCLINE NETTE DE LA DYNAMIQUE D’ALTITUDE. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, AVEC LA DISSIPATION DU THALWEG D’ALTITUDE ET LE MAINTIEN
D’UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE POLAIRE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SE
REINTENSIFIER.

===========================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/1 March 08 2017 – 18:39:19 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/2 March 08 2017 – 18:35:46 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/3 March 08 2017 – 12:32:19 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 17:44:07 UTC
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 12:44:02 UTC

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