Lesser Antilles/ Carribean: Tropical Storm KIRK 27/1800Z 14.0N 59.9W, moving WNW ~11.87kt 1000mb (NHC FL) – Published 27 Sep 2018 1830Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm KIRK

…KIRK ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

175022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

868
WTNT32 KNHC 271731
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
200 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

…KIRK ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.0N 59.9W
ABOUT 60 MI…100 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 90 MI…140 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 59.9 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk
will move across the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm
Warning area by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of
days, but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and
into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area in a few hours, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area in a few hours.

RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6
inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands
with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and
Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2
to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and
Saturday.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 27 Sep, 2018 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KIRK is currently located near 13.0 N 57.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). KIRK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Barbados
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Martinique
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    St. Lucia
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Dominica
        probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
    Guadeloupe
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Antigua and Barbuda
        probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours
    Montserrat
        probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Current probability of tropical storm winds

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 271451
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018
1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 59.3W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 59.3W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 58.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.3N 61.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT…110NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.9N 63.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.9N 67.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.0N 72.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 59.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

===========================================================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Canada/ US/ Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm MARIA 28/1500Z Update from NHC and others -Updated 28 Sep 2017 1717z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm MARIA

MARIA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES – NHC

 

(Please check comments at bottom of page for updates)

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

145714_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

rb_lalo-animated12

145714_earliest_reasonable_toa_34

 

natloop4

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017

…MARIA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…36.8N 69.3W
ABOUT 365 MI…585 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 400 MI…650 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 85 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 69.3 West. Maria is
moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and the storm is
expected to accelerate eastward through tonight. A turn back toward
the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is
expected on Friday. On the forecast track, Maria will continue to
move away from the U.S. east coast and pass well to the south of
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east
coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

LOCAL STATEMENTS

None

favicon-mobileCANADA

track

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements

 

8:37 AM ADT Thursday 28 September 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

  • Avalon Peninsula Southeast

For Tropical Storm Maria.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:30 P.M. NDT.

Tropical Storm Maria currently east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. Will accelerate eastward over next few days and track well offshore of Atlantic Canada.

1. Summary of basic information at 9.30 A.M. NDT.

Location: 36.7 north 69.8 west.

about 560 kilometres southeast of New York City.

Maximum sustained winds: 110 km/hour.

Present movement: east-northeast at 13 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 982 mb.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Maria is expected to track well offshore and not have any direct weather impacts on Canadian land areas. Periods of heavy rain are expected over parts of Atlantic Canada today from an unrelated frontal system approaching from the northwest.

a. Wind.

No direct wind impacts are expected over land from Maria as the strongest winds from the storm are expected to remain well offshore.

b. Rainfall.

Rain directly associated with Maria is expected to remain well offshore. However, moisture from the storm may feed into a cold front crossing Atlantic Canada today. This will enhance rainfall amounts along the front as it moves southward. The maximum level of enhancement may be over the southern Avalon Peninsula where a heavy rainfall warning is in effect. Once again, indirectly related to Maria.

c. Surge/waves.

There will be some ocean swells along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia today and tomorrow with waves breaking at times above 2 metres. Swells near 2 metres along the southern coast of Newfoundland will persist for a few days. These swells may build to 3-4 metres along the southern Avalon beginning tonight. Dangerous rip currents are also possible and the public should exercise caution until swells subside.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Maria could bring gales to the southern Grand Banks marine areas during its closest approach on Saturday. Seas (mostly swells) may build up to 5 metres over that area late Friday from a combination of both Maria and Hurricane Lee which is farther southeast.

Forecaster: Fogarty/March

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

 

 

 

Other

at201715

at201715_sat1

 

 

(Above 2 images: @wunderground)

Category 5 Hurricane Maria Hits Dominica

Maria Headed for Catastrophic Hit on Puerto Rico, St. Croix

Maria Slams St. Croix, Rips Across Puerto Rico

Maria Back Over Water After Devastating Hit to Puerto Rico

More Havoc as Category 3 Maria Plows Northward

Maria’s Forecast Path Edging Closer to Outer Banks

Coastal North Carolina Prepares for Outer Effects of Hurricane Maria

A Brush From Maria: Winds and Storm Surge Rising in North Carolina

Maria Pulling Away From North Carolina; Lee a Major Hurricane

Maria and Lee On the Way Out; New Tropical Depression Possible near Florida

750px-caribbean_general_map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm33

WTNT25 KNHC 281448
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 69.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT……. 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT…….180NE 210SE 160SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 69.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 70.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.9N 66.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT…160NE 200SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.4N 62.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 180SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.8N 56.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT…140NE 200SE 190SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.3N 48.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT…130NE 230SE 220SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.9N 31.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 69.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Note: See above for 27/1800Z NHC update

CANADA

canadamapwarningstatus_e

For more detail visit: http://weather.gc.ca/marine/index_e.html

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

ERNESTO DISSIPATES OVER S. MEXICO…HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES ~ ERNESTO SE DISIPA SOBRE EL SUR DE MÉXICO…CONTINÚA LA AMENAZA DE LLUVIA PESADA- Updated 10 Aug 2012 1644 GMT/UTC

(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
(Click image for source)

REMINDER: YOU MAY HAVE TO RELOAD/REFRESH PAGE TO UPDATE IMAGES

AVISO: PUEDE QUE TENGA QUE RECARGAR/ACTUALIZAR LA PÁGINA PARA ACTUALIZAR IMÁGENES

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

WTNT35 KNHC 101434
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

ERNESTO DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO…HEAVY
RAIN THREAT CONTINUES

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…18.0N 99.2W
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM WSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…25 MPH…35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. AT 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…THE REMNANTS OF
ERNESTO WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 99.2
WEST. THE REMANTS OF ERNESTO ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OFF MEXICO INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC…AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN A DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH…35 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN PASSING SHOWERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-

RAINFALL…ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
VERACRUZ…TABASCO…PUEBLA…OAXACA…AND GUERRERO THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT35 KNHC 101434
TCPAT5

BOLETÍN
RESTOS DE ERNESTO CONSULTIVA NÚMERO 37
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 AM CDT VIERNES, 10 DE AGOSTO DE 2012

ERNESTO SE DISIPA SOBRE EL SUR DE MÉXICO…PESADO
CONTINÚA LA AMENAZA DE LLUVIA

RESUMEN DE 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC… INFORMACIÓN
———————————————–
UBICACIÓN…18.0N 99.2W
UNOS 215 MI…345 KM OSO DE VERACRUZ MÉXICO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS…25 MPH…35 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL…W O 270 GRADOS A 15 MPH…24 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA…1005 MB…29.68 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
——————–
NO HAY NINGÚN EFECTO DE EN RELOJES O ADVERTENCIAS COSTERA.

DISCUSIÓN Y OUTLOOK DE 48 HORAS
——————————
LA CIRCULACIÓN DE ERNESTO SE HA VISTO PERTURBADA POR LAS MONTAÑAS DE ALTA
DEL SUR DE MÉXICO. EN 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…LOS RESTOS DE
ERNESTO SE ENCONTRABAN CERCA DEL NORTE DE LA LATITUD 18.0…LONGITUD 99.2
OESTE. EL RETAL DE ERNESTO SE PREVÉ MOVER FRENTE A MÉXICO EN
EL PACÍFICO ORIENTAL…Y TIENEN EL POTENCIAL PARA CONVERTIRSE EN UN TROPICAL
CICLÓN EN UN DÍA O DOS.

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTÁN CERCA DE 25 MPH…35 KM/H…CON MAYOR
RÁFAGAS EN LAS DUCHAS DE PASO.

ESTIMADO MÍNIMO DE PRESIÓN CENTRAL ES DE 1005 MB…29.68 PULGADAS.

PELIGROS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
———————-

LLUVIAS…ERNESTO SE ESPERA PRODUCIR LLUVIAS ADICIONALES
ACUMULACIONES DE 2 A 5 PULGADAS EN LOS ESTADOS MEXICANOS DE
VERACRUZ…TABASCO…PUEBLA…OAXACA…Y GUERRERO AL VIERNES
NOCHE. SON AISLADOS MÁXIMO TORMENTA IMPORTES TOTALES DE 15 PULGADAS
EN ASOCIACIÓN CON ERNESTO. ESTAS PRECIPITACIONES PUEDEN
PRODUCIR MORTALES INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA.

ASESOR PRÓXIMO
————-
ESTE ES EL ÚLTIMO AVISO PÚBLICO EMITIDO POR EL HURACÁN NACIONAL
CENTRO EN ESTE SISTEMA.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

(Image: wunderground.com)
TD5 Storm-Centered Satellite Image
(Click image for source)
REMNANTS OF ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OF CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IS NO
LONGER TRACKABLE. ERNESTO NOW CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF MEXICO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF
THIS IS THE CASE…IT WILL ACQUIRE A NEW DEPRESSION NUMBER…OR A
NEW NAME IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
ERNESTO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 18.0N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH
12H  11/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

RESTOS DE ERNESTO DISCUSIÓN NÚMERO 37
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 AM CDT VIERNES, 10 DE AGOSTO DE 2012

OBSERVACIONES DE LA SUPERFICIE DE MÉXICO INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE BAJO NIVEL
DE CIRCULACIÓN SE HA CONVERTIDO EN PERTURBADA POR EL TERRENO ALTO Y NO
YA TRACKABLE. ERNESTO AHORA CONSISTE EN UNA AMPLIA ÁREA DE BAJA
PRESIÓN SOBRE EL SUR DE MÉXICO. FUERTES LLUVIAS ASOCIADAS CON EL
RESTOS DE ERNESTO CONTINUARÁ DURANTE EL SIGUIENTE DÍA O DOS.
ESTAS LLUVIAS PROBABLEMENTE PRODUCIRÁ INUNDACIONES EN GRAN PARTE DE FLASH
SUR DE MÉXICO.

SE ESPERA QUE LOS RESTOS DE ERNESTO JUGADA FRENTE A MÉXICO EN LA
PACÍFICO ORIENTAL CON EL POTENCIAL PARA CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLÓN TROPICAL. SI
ESTE ES EL CASO…ADQUIRIRÁ UN NUEVO NÚMERO DE DEPRESIÓN…O A
NUEVO NOMBRE SI SE CONVIERTE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL.

ESTE ES EL ÚLTIMO AVISO EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES DE
ERNESTO.

POSICIONES DE PREVISIÓN Y VIENTOS DE MAX

INIT 10/1500Z 18.0N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH
12 H 11/0000Z…SE DISIPÓ

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

CNN: Tropical Storm Ernesto expected to become a hurricane

CANCUN, Mexico Aug 7, 5:27 PM EDT (AP) — Hundreds of tourists evacuated beach resorts along Mexico’s Caribbean coast as Hurricane Ernesto headed toward a Tuesday night landfall near Mexico’s border with Belize, bringing the threat of powerful winds and torrential rains. More here

NHC_DrRickKnabb: Ham radio operators indicate storm surge flooding more than 2 ft on Ambergris Care Island, Belize.

NHC_DrRickKnabb: Operadores de radio de jamón indican marejada inundaciones de más de 2 pies en la isla de Ambergris cuidado, Belize.

(Photo: latribuna.hn)
At least 155 people were affected by the hurricane “Ernesto”, in Guatemala
(Click photo for source)

Guatemala:

The National Coordinator for disaster reduction (Conred) explained in a statement that the rains affected 155 people in El Rastro and Ixobel neighborhoods and in the colonies the miracle and Santa Fe, in the municipality of Poptún, in the Northern Department of Petén.

La Coordinadora Nacional para la reducción de desastres (Conred) explicó en un comunicado que las lluvias afectaban a 155 personas en El Rastro y Ixobel barrios y en las colonias el milagro y Santa Fe, en el municipio de Poptún, en el Departamento de norte de Petén

–  latribuna.hn

Aug 10 (Reuters) – The death toll attributed to the storm Ernesto rose to six on Friday although it continued to weaken as it passed through Mexico’s eastern Veracruz state. – Alert Net