UTC)

October 3, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon Mujigae 22W

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

1522
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.
Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1522 (MUJIGAE)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 3 October 2015

<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N19°30′(19.5°)
	E113°25′(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure	970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N20°35′(20.6°)
	E111°35′(111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)
Storm warning area	ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N21°40′(21.7°)
	E109°40′(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure	975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle	130km(70NM)
Storm warning area	ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N23°30′(23.5°)
	E108°20′(108.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure	1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle	200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position of probability circle	N25°10′(25.2°)
	E108°00′(108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	N Slowly
Central pressure	1004hPa
Radius of probability circle	300km(160NM)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

(Updated at 20:45 on 3 Oct HKT)

In the past few hours, outer rainbands of Majigae brought heavy squally showers to Hong Kong. Winds occasionally reached gale force in the offshore areas and on high ground. Heavy squally showers are expected to continue to affect Hong Kong in the next few hours.

According to the present forecast track, Mujigae will be closest to Hong Kong from midnight to early tomorrow morning. Mujigae is expected to skirt around 300 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong.

Unless Mujigae adopts a more northerly track or intensifies significantly, the chance of issuing the Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 is not high. However, winds will occasionally reach gale force over the southwestern part of Hong Kong. The Observatory will closely monitor the evolution of Mujigae.

Rainstorm Warning Bulletin

Updated at 21:45

Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 9:45 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding.

Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

Please listen to radio or watch television for traffic conditions and further announcements on the rainstorm.

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 Oct, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon MUJIGAE (22W) currently located near 19.5 N 113.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HKO – Hong Kong

Bulletin issued at 21:30 HKT 03/Oct/2015

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 031200 UTC, Typhoon Mujigae (1522) with central pressure 965 hectopascals was centred within 30 nautical miles of one nine point five degrees north (19.5 N) one one three point four degrees east (113.4 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 10 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 70 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 270 nautical miles over northern semicircle, 240 nautical miles elsewhere.

Forecast position and intensity at 041200 UTC
Two one point five degrees north (21.5 N)
One zero nine point nine degrees east (109.9 E)
Maximum winds 65 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 051200 UTC
Two three point eight degrees north (23.8 N)
One zero eight point four degrees east (108.4 E)
Maximum winds 25 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 061200 UTC
Dissipated over land.

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1522 MUJIGAE (1522) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970
HPA
AT 19.5N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 20.6N 111.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 21.7N 109.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 23.5N 108.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 25.2N 108.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Pacific Ocean/ Japan/ Taiwan/ China: Typhoon Dujuan (21W) 25/2100Z near 20.5N 130.7E, moving NNW 7 knots (JTWC) – Updated 25 Sept 2015 2053z (GMT/UTC)

September 25, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon Dujuan (21W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Ishigakijima, Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan and China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1521 (DUJUAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 25 September 2015

<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N19°55′(19.9°)
	E131°20′(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW Slowly
Central pressure	970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N22°05′(22.1°)
	E129°05′(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure	960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle	130km(70NM)
Storm warning area	ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N23°20′(23.3°)
	E126°35′(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure	955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle	200km(110NM)
Storm warning area	ALL330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N25°00′(25.0°)
	E122°50′(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure	955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle	300km(160NM)
Storm warning area	ALL430km(230NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 21W (Dujuan) Warning #17
Issued at 25/2100Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z — NEAR 20.2N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 131.0E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 21.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 22.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 22.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 23.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 24.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 26.1N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 27.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 130.7E.
TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

Other Reports

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2015 18:00 GMT

Typhoon DUJUAN (21W) currently located near 20.2 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T’aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Fu’an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 251800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 142E 42N 140E
44N 145E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 40N 160E 40N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 39N 137E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 34N 146E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 52N 167E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 44N 170E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 147E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 48N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 162E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 132E TO 32N 135E 33N 141E 34N 146E 34N 150E
31N 153E.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA AT 20.1N 131.0E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1521 DUJUAN (1521) 970 HPA
AT 20.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 22.1N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 23.2N 125.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.6N 121.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Japan: Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh 161500Z 20.1N 146.0E, moving NW at 09 knots (JMA) – Published 16 Sept 2015 1616Z (GMT/UTC)

September 16, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

1520

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

STS 1520 (KROVANH)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 16 September 2015

<Analyses at 16/15 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N20°05′(20.1°)
	E146°00′(146.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure	980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 17/03 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N21°20′(21.3°)
	E144°30′(144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure	970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)
Storm warning area	ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 17/15 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N22°35′(22.6°)
	E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle	130km(70NM)
Storm warning area	ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N25°35′(25.6°)
	E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle	200km(110NM)
Storm warning area	ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N29°05′(29.1°)
	E145°05′(145.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle	410km(220NM)
Storm warning area	ALL520km(280NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 20.0N 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 146.3E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 21.2N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 22.5N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.2N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 25.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 29.4N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 33.1N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 36.9N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 145.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 161200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 51N 157E
55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 30N 180E 30N 160E 36N 151E 40N 151E 42N
143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 31N 132E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 46N 150E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 42N 172E ENE SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 167E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 37N 120E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 42N 135E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 38N 145E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 62N 153E ESE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 123E TO 28N 126E 30N 129E 30N 131E 31N 132E
32N 137E 33N 143E 32N 150E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1520 KROVANH (1520) 980 HPA AT 19.9N 146.4E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 161500
WARNING 161500.
WARNING VALID 171500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1520 KROVANH (1520) 980 HPA
AT 20.1N 146.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 21.3N 144.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 22.6N 143.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Vietnam/ South China Sea: Tropical Depression Nineteen (19W) 131500Z POSITION near 15.8N 110.9E, moving W at 07 knots (JTWC) – Published 13 sept 2015 1840z (GMT/UTC)

September 13, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Depression Nineteen (19W)

VIETNAM BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

TD a

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TD
Issued at 15:55 UTC, 13 September 2015

<Analyses at 13/15 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
	TD
Center position	N15°35′(15.6°)
	E111°30′(111.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	WSW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure	1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 14/15 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N15°40′(15.7°)
	E108°55′(108.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure	998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle	220km(120NM)

VIETNAM

National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING

TC TRACKS

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING

Analysis positions and Intensities
Local time (GMT+7)	Date	Position		Classification	Maximum sustained wind
22	Sunday, September 13, 2015	15.7	111.7	TD	56 km/hour

Forecast positions and Intensities
Local time (GMT+7)	Date	Position		Classification	Maximum sustained wind
22	Monday, September 14, 2015	15.7	109.0	TS	65 km/hour
22	Tuesday, September 15, 2015	15.2	105.8	Low	28 km/hour

Notes for the picture:

Areas of probability wind greater than 6 Beauforts

Areas of probability wind greater than 10 Beauforts

Possible passing areas of TC center

Past positions of TC

Forecast positions of TC

Past positions of TD

Forecast positions of TD

*The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 02:30 AM Monday, September 14, 2015

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Depression 19W (Nineteen) Warning #01
Issued at 13/1500Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130951SEP15//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z — NEAR 15.8N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 111.3E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 15.8N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z — 16.1N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z — 15.9N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z — 15.3N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 110.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z. THIS
MESSAGE SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 130951Z SEP 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21
PGTW 131000).//
//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 131200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 44N 173E 48N 180E 33N 180E 33N 172E 44N 173E.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 15.8N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 15.4N 109.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 170E 60N 180E 50N 180E 43N 170E 40N 160E 38N 150E 38N
143E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1014 HPA AT 47N 148E NE 20 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 14N 152E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 08N 176E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 34N 123E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 43N 169E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 47N 148E TO 49N 151E 50N 156E.
COLD FRONT FROM 47N 148E TO 44N 146E 43N 144E 36N 141E 30N 136E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Japan: Severe Tropical Storm 1517 Kilo downgraded to LOW: 11/1200Z 43N 148E, moving N 25 knots (JMA) – Published 11 Sept 2015 1905z (GMT/UTC)

September 11, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm Kilo

….downgraded to Low Pressure Area (LOW or LPA) (JMA)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

LOW
Issued at 12:35 UTC, 11 September 2015

<Analyses at 11/12 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position	N43°00′(43.0°)
	E148°00′(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure	980hPa

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2015 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm KILO (03C) currently located near 38.5 N 147.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 111200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW FORMER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1517 KILO (1517) 980 HPA
AT 43N 148E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 148E TO 43N 153E 38N 157E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 148E TO 40N 151E 38N 149E 36N 142E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 49N 150E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 54N 153E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 40N 142E
42N 142E 42N 143E 51N 157E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 45N 180E 40N
170E 37N 156E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 45N 138E NE 10 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 41N 138E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 115E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 17N 165E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 45N 167E SE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 115E TO 33N 121E 36N 126E 36N 129E 36N
132E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here: METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Pacific Ocean/ Japan: Typhoon Kilo 03C 072100Z POSITION nr 25.9N 160.8E, WNW at 12 knots (JTWC) – Published 07 Sept 2015 2055z (GMT/UTC)

September 7, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon Kilo 1517 03C

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

1517

Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

TY 1517 (KILO)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 7 September 2015
<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale –
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°35′(25.6°)
E162°05′(162.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more N190km(100NM)
S130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N560km(300NM)
S330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 08/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°35′(26.6°)
E159°05′(159.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area N310km(170NM)
S240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°55′(27.9°)
E155°55′(155.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°20′(31.3°)
E151°00′(151.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N35°25′(35.4°)
E148°50′(148.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

Unit:

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 073
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 25.6N 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 161.5E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 26.6N 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 27.9N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 29.4N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 31.4N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 35.9N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 19 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 43.2N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 160.8E.
TYPHOON 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1265 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Real-time monitoring by Himawari-8 satellite (Click here)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1517 KILO (1517) 955 HPA
AT 25.6N 162.1E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 26.6N 159.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 27.9N 155.9E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 31.3N 151.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 35.4N 148.8E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There may be more warnings here: METAREA XI

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Atlantic Ocean: TD 7 becomes Tropical Storm Grace – 06/0900Z 12.4N 28.5W, moving W 12 knots (NHC) – Updated 06 Sept 2015 0915Z (GMT/UTC)

September 6, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm Grace

….GRACE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC……NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Hurricane Center

000
WTNT32 KNHC 060839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015

…GRACE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…12.4N 28.5W
ABOUT 390 MI…630 KM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H12.4N 28.5W
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 28.5 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through
Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 36 to 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Other Reports

TD 7 Forms in the Eastern Atlantic; Likely to Become Tropical Storm Grace

By Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:46 AM EDT on September 05, 2015
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground

Tropical Depression Seven spun into life on Saturday morning in the waters a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde islands in the Eastern Atlantic, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Grace by Sunday.

See more: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3102

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA2 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0751

WONT50 LFPW 060751
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 399, SUNDAY 6 SEPTEMBER 2015 AT 0745 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SUNDAY 6 AT 00 UTC.
NEW LOW EXPECTED 1009 37N43W BY 06/12 UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST AND
EXPECTED 1001 43N31W BY 07/12 UTC.
TROPICAL STORM GRACE 1006 OVER WEST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 12.8N 27.5W
BY 06/03 UTC, MOVING WEST 12 KT AND GRADUALLY DEEPENING.

ALTAIR.
FROM 07/06 UTC TO 07/12 UTC AT LEAST.
SOUTH LOCALLY 8 IN WEST.

SIERRA LEONE.
FROM 06/09 UTC TO 07/12 UTC AT LEAST.
CYCLONIC 8 IN WEST, INCREASING 8 OR 9 AT END. GUSTS.
BECOMING HIGH.

BT
*

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR
24.1N 43.1W. FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…OR 320
DEGREES…09 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ARE
BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC…AND UNDER THE
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FRED ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT21
KNHC…AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N
BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 28N
BETWEEN 41W AND 46W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR 12.8N
27.5W. GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST…OR 280 DEGREES…12
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE BEING ISSUED
UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC…AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE
BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC…AND UNDER THE
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N37W 09N34W…MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
65W/66W…FROM PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD…MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THESE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD…WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA…AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
22N68W…TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W
AND 73W IN SOUTHERN HAITI.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W TO 15N20W AND 15N22W…AND FROM 12N30W TO 12N33W AND
11N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N34W TO 09N43W 10N50W AND
10N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 05N TO
11N FROM 17W EASTWARD. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

…DISCUSSION…

FROM SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO…INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N81W SOUTH
CAROLINA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER…TO THE TAMPA FLORIDA
METROPOLITAN AREA…TO 24N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO…TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD…THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
90W EASTWARD…AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO…FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N60W…TO 27N70W…ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS…TO 25N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO…ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 22N
NORTHWARD FROM 93W EASTWARD. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA…AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N AND EL
SALVADOR TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM EL SALVADOR
TO 17N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1015
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT HISPANIOLA AND THE
SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES…FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND
07N78W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER…INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…NUMEROUS STRONG IN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 09N77W TO 13N83W. THIS IS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
06/0000 UTC…ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…ARE 0.69 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

…HISPANIOLA…

CURRENT CONDITIONS…IN HAITI…CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W IN
SOUTHERN HAITI. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO…IN SANTIAGO…AND IN PUERTO PLATA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR
SO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL COVER THE AREA…WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA IN A COL.
TWO INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED…AND TROPICAL STORM GRACE.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N30W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W…AWAY FROM T.D. FRED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

There may be more warnings here: METAREA II

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Atlantic Ocean/ Cape Verde Islands: Hurricane Fred CAT1 31/1800Z 16.9N 24.2W, moving NW 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 31 Aug 2015 1840Z (GMT/UTC)

August 31, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Hurricane Fred

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cape Verde Islands

…FRED BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS…
…CENTER PASSING VERY NEAR SAO NICOLAU ISLAND……NHC FL

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Hurricane Center

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311749
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
200 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

…FRED BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS…
…CENTER PASSING VERY NEAR SAO NICOLAU ISLAND…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.9N 24.2W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM NNE OF RIBEIRA BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM ESE OF RIBEIRA GRANDE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cape Verde Islands

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fred was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 24.2 West. Fred is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Fred is expected to pass near or over the northwestern
Cape Verde Islands through early tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early tonight
while Fred passes near the northwestern Cape Verde Islands. Gradual
weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to
spread across the northwestern Cape Verde Islands through this
evening and continue into the overnight hours.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory,
and in some elevated locations can be even greater.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rains are likely to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

TSR N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2015 15:00 GMT

Hurricane FRED (AL06) currently located near 16.4 N 23.7 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cape Verde
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 311756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 24.2W AT 31/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 20 NM NNE OF RIBEIRA BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 50 NM ESE OF RIBEIRA GRANDE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-
18N BETWEEN 22W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N-
21N BETWEEN 15W-20W…AND FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 22W-28W. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

…TROPICAL WAVES…
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N60W TO 19N57W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH RELATIVELY BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING
BETWEEN 55W-63W…WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-17N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 54W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 19N75W MOVING W AT 25 KT.
THE WAVE LIES WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
30N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-
78W.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N28W TO A 1013 MB LOW
NEAR 07N38W TO 08N45W. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE FRED…ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N
BETWEEN 40W-43W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SW TO OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION TO A BROAD BASE OVER
THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY NEAR 26N100W. THE TROUGHING IS
PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON. NEAREST TO THE MID-LEVEL 500 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO…MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF N OF 22N W OF 93W. FARTHER EAST…A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 27N83W.
THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A WEAK 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N85W
WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING N-NE TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION NEAR 30N83W…AND SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING…SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
82W-84W…AND S OF 23N BETWEEN 83W-87W…INCLUDING THE
APPROACHES TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE…GENERALLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLC AND SE
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION AND
MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT…SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 19N BETWEEN 82W-88W…INCLUDING FAR WESTERN
CUBA…AND THE FAR EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE…THE
OTHER MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IMPACTING THE BASIN IS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION NEAR
18N75W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 76W IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMAICA AND ACROSS AN AREA SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE VICINITY OF 16N72W. FINALLY…THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE…CURRENTLY ALONG 59W…IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

…HISPANIOLA…
CURRENTLY…MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DUE LARGELY TO RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT AND
OVERALL STABILITY PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 59W WILL APPROACH AND INCREASE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N71W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 29N77W
THEN SW OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 30N BETWEEN 78W-80W. OTHERWISE…THE MAIN FEATURE
INFLUENCING THE SW NORTH ATLC IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N69W. FARTHER EAST…THE CENTRAL
ATLC IS GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N45W…HOWEVER TO THE
NW A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N56W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 29N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 52W-56W. FINALLY…AS MENTIONED
ABOVE…THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EASTERN ATLC IS HURRICANE FRED AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

METAREA2 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 311522

WONT50 LFPW 311522
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 386, MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015 AT 1520 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, MONDAY 31 AT 12 UTC.
HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED 16.4N 23.7W AT 31/1500UTC, MOVING NW AT 10
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 HPA. POSITION BY 01/00
UTC: 17.3N 25.1W, WITH MAX WINDS 70 KT, 18.6N 26.9W BY 01/12 UTC, AND
19.6N 28.8W BY 02/00 UTC.
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N23W 07N31W 6N41W.
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE VERDE.
CONTINUING TO 02/00 UTC AT LEAST.
HURRICANE 12 (75 KT). GUSTS 90 KT.
HIGH OR VERY HIGH.

SOUTHWEST OF CAP TIMIRIS, NORTH OF SIERRA LEONE.
CONTINUING TO 31/18 UTC.
LOCALLY SOUTHERLY 8 OR 9.
HIGH.

BT
*

There may be more warnings here: METAREA II

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Central Pacific/ Hawaii: Hurricane Ignacio 12E CAT4 301600Z POSITION nr 18.4N 148.5W, moving NNW 10 knots (JTWC) – Updated 30 Aug 2015 1550z (GMT/UTC)

August 30, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Hurricane Ignacio 12E CAT4

HAWAII: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST WATERS (NWS HONOLULU HI)

…..MAJOR HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD….CPHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 36 FEET (JTWC)

ep201512_5day 29a
(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

WTPA33 PHFO 301154
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGNACIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
200 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

…MAJOR HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.9N 148.2W
ABOUT 470 MI…750 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 680 MI…1090 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…948 MB…27.99 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE.
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS OF THE
INITIAL ISSUANCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 AM HST…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 148.2 WEST. IGNACIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF IGNACIO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND ON MONDAY…THEN NORTHEAST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH…220 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGNACIO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IGNACIO WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB…27.99 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY…AND STARTING
MONDAY ON MAUI.

RAINFALL…STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES MAINLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN…ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IGNACIO WILL ARRIVE ALONG EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RESULTANT SURF WILL BE LARGE AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING…ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
HURRICANE IGNACIO LOCAL STATEMENT

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 12E (Ignacio) Warning #23
Issued at 30/1600Z

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN33 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 023
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 18.0N 148.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 148.2W
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 19.1N 149.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 20.3N 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 21.4N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 22.4N 153.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 24.3N 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 26.5N 159.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 28.7N 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 148.5W.
HURRICANE 12E (IGNACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z
AND 311600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03C (KILO) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (JIMENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Tropical Storm Warning

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

…HURRICANE IGNACIO APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST…

.AT 2 AM HST…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS ABOUT 400 NM
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT.

PHZ122-124-310300-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.W.2012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
346 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

* WINDS AND SEAS…POTENTIALLY DISTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY
HIGH SEAS MAY AFFECT THESE AREAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT…
SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE.

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1436

WTPA23 PHFO 301445 RRA
TCMCP3

HURRICANE IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE.
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS OF THE
INITIAL ISSUANCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 148.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT……. 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 148.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 148.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.1N 149.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.3N 150.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
Marine Zone Forecast
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…

Synopsis: A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS ABOUT 400 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO CUT THROUGH THE ISLAND/S WINDWARD WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Today
Northeast winds 20 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. Mixed swell northwest 3 ft and east 5 to 6 ft. Scattered showers in the morning…then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tonight
North winds 20 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. Mixed swell northwest 3 ft and east 7 to 8 ft. Scattered showers.
Monday
Tropical storm conditions expected. Northwest winds 25 kt. Wind waves 9 ft. Swell east 9 ft. Showers likely.
Monday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected. West winds 25 kt. Wind waves 11 ft. Swell east 10 to 11 ft. Showers likely.
Tuesday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Southwest winds 20 kt. Wind waves 8 ft. Swell east 10 ft. Haze through the day. Showers likely in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. South winds 15 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. Swell east 5 to 6 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
Wednesday
South winds 15 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. Swell east 8 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
Wednesday Night
South winds 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Swell east 8 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
Thursday
Southeast winds 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Swell east 8 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.

There may be more warnings here: METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Guadeloupe/ Antigua and Barbuda/ Dominica: Hurricane Danny at 20/1500Z near 12.5N 44.8W, moving WNW at 10 knots (NHC) – Published 20 Aug 2015 2007z (GMT/UTC)

August 20, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Hurricane Danny

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

000
WTNT34 KNHC 201447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015

…DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI…1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Danny
was located by satellite near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 44.8
West. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Danny is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Graphicast Atlantic

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1446

WTNT24 KNHC 201446
TCMAT4

HURRICANE DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 44.8W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT……. 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 44.8W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 44.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT… 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 44.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

There may be more warnings here: METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

THE FIRST DIGITAL MAP OF THE OCEAN FLOOR HAS BEEN CREATED

August 13, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

The Jolly Good News

“The deep ocean floor is a graveyard with much of it made up of the remains of microscopic sea creatures called phytoplankton”, Dutkiewicz said in a statement.

View original post 326 more words

Central Pacific/ Hawaii: Hurricane HILDA (10E) CAT4 09/0400Z POSITION nr 14.1N 144.7W, moving WNW 12 knots (JTWC) – Updated 09 Aug 2015 0835Z (GMT/UTC)

August 9, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Hurricane Hilda (10E)

(CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…..HILDA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII……CPHC

HAWAII BE AWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 36 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI
(Long Range Base Reflectivity)

NWS radar Loop from South Shore Hawaii, HI
(Base Reflectivity)

WTPA35 PHFO 090243
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2015

…HILDA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.1N 144.5W
ABOUT 800 MI…1285 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1010 MI…1625 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 144.5 WEST. HILDA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H. HILDA IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HILDA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING STARTING ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES…205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB…28.06 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 10E (Hilda) Warning #13
Issued at 09/0400Z

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 10E (HILDA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 10E (HILDA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z — NEAR 13.9N 144.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 144.0W
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z — 14.6N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 15.5N 147.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z — 16.5N 148.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z — 17.5N 149.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z — 19.2N 150.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 20.2N 151.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z — 21.0N 153.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 144.7W.
HURRICANE 10E (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 0235

WTPA25 PHFO 090235 RRA
TCMCP5

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 144.5W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT…….110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 144.5W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 144.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.6N 146.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…115NE 90SE 80SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.5N 147.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…125NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N 148.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…125NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.5N 149.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 80SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.2N 150.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…105NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

There may be other warnings here:

METAREA XII

FZHW60 PHFO 090340
OFFHFO

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR HAWAII
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 40 NAUTICAL MILES OUT TO 240
NAUTICAL MILES INCLUDING THE PORTION OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT EAST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT
OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN
TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PHZ105-091000-
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS…
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HURRICANE HILDA IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY AS A HURRICANE THEN WEAK TO
A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

PHZ180-091000-
HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS
600 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2015

…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…

.TONIGHT…E TO NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT…E TO NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. W OF
155W…SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUESDAY…E OF 154W…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE…E
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…E OF 154W…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE…E WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081510
TWDEP

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

East Pacific/Hawaii(US): Hurricane Guillermo 09E CAT2 012100Z 13.8N 140.1W, moving WNW 12 knots (NHC) – Published 010915 2156z (GMT/UTC)

August 1, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Hurricane Guillermo (09E)

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…GUILLERMO MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…NHC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 012040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

…GUILLERMO MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.8N 140.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI…1725 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 140.1 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts. Guillermo should begin to gradually weaken tonight.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future public advisories will be issued by
the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under
AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO, and on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Avila

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Graphicast Eastern Pacific

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 012039

WTPZ24 KNHC 012039
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 139.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.3N 141.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 143.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.9N 145.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 146.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.2N 149.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.7N 152.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 155.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 140.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII…UNDER AWIPS
HEADER HFOTCMCP4, WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO, AND ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC…BEGINNING AT 02/0300Z.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

There may be other warnings here:
METAREA XII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Minamidaitōjima/ Okinawa/ AmamiŌshima/ Japan/ South Korea: Typhoon Halola (01C) 24/1500Z position near 25.3N 130.6E, moving W at 07 knots (JTWC) – Updated 240715 1508z (GMT/UTC)

July 24, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Typhoon Halola (01C)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Minamidaitōjima, Amami Ōshima, Okinawa, Japan Mainland and South Korea BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 23 FEET (JTWC)

Note: There are differences between forecast agencies

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.
Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TY 1512 (HALOLA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 24 July 2015

<Analyses at 24/12 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N25°00′(25.0°)
	E131°05′(131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	ALL220km(120NM)
<Estimate for 24/13 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	Strong
Center position	N25°00′(25.0°)
	E131°00′(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more	ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more	ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N25°30′(25.5°)
	E130°25′(130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle	50km(25NM)
Storm warning area	ALL120km(65NM)
<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N26°10′(26.2°)
	E129°35′(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)
Storm warning area	ALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N27°05′(27.1°)
	E128°55′(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle	110km(60NM)
Storm warning area	ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity	Strong
Center position of probability circle	N28°10′(28.2°)
	E128°25′(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure	965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle	130km(70NM)
Storm warning area	ALL200km(110NM)

CURRENT WARNINGS – Click image for more detail

No.12 HALOLA

Issued at(KST) : 2015.07.24. 22:00

Date(UTC)	Position		Central Pressure (hPa)	Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Radius of 15 m/s(km)	Intensity	Scale	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 70% probability(km)
Date(UTC)	Lat (N)	Lon (E)	Central Pressure (hPa)	m/s	km/h	Radius of 15 m/s(km)	Intensity	Scale	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 70% probability(km)
2015.07.24. 12:00 Analysis	24.9	131.0	970	35	126	240 (SW 200)	Strong	Small	W	14
2015.07.25. 00:00 Forecast	26.4	129.6	975	32	115	240 (WSW 200)	Normal	Small	NW	18	60
2015.07.25. 12:00 Forecast	28.6	128.2	980	29	104	220 (W 180)	Normal	Small	NNW	24	140
2015.07.26. 00:00 Forecast	31.4	127.6	985	27	97	200 (WNW 170)	Normal	Small	NNW	26	185
2015.07.26. 12:00 Forecast	34.1	128.6	990	24	86	180 (WNW 100)	Weak	Small	NNE	26	230
2015.07.27. 00:00 Forecast	36.5	130.9	996	20	72	130 (NW 70)	Weak	Small	NE	28	275
2015.07.27. 12:00 Forecast	37.9	134.7	1002						ENE	31

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Typhoon 01C (Halola) Warning #58
Issued at 24/1500Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 24/0900Z

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 058
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z — NEAR 25.0N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 131.0E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 26.2N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 28.3N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z — 31.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 34.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 38.3N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 130.6E.
TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Hurricane HALOLA (01C) currently located near 25.0 N 131.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

: Hurricane HALOLA: Storm-centered zoom at 24 hours lead (Image TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 241200

WTJP21 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965 HPA
AT 25.0N 131.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 37.6N 134.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Marine Warnings: SEA AROUND AMAMI
23:35 JST 07/24/2015

KAGOSHIMA WX
242100JST ISSUED AT 242335JST

TYPHOON WARNING FOR SEA AROUND AMAMI
GALE WARNING FOR SEA OFF KAGOSHIMA

TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512) 965HPA AT 25.0N 131.1E MOVING WNW 07KT
POSITION GOOD
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40NM
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120NM
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900JST AT 26.2N 129.6E WITH 50NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100JST AT 28.2N 128.4E WITH 70NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 70KT NEAR CENTER

IN SEA AROUND AMAMI
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 30KT AND SE-LY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH MAX 75KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

IN SEA OFF KAGOSHIMA
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 35KT FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100JST AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 50KT

WARNING VALID 252100JST

Marine Warnings: SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
23:35 JST 07/24/2015

OKINAWA WX
242100JST ISSUED AT 242335JST

TYPHOON WARNING FOR SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
GALE WARNING FOR SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA

IN SEA EAST OF OKINAWA
EASTERLY TO SE-LY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX 70KT

IN SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
NW-LY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 55KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

IN SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA
NW-LY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MAX 45KT FOR NEXT 18 HOURS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TYPHOON 1512 HALOLA (1512)
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100JST AT 33.9N 128.0E WITH 140NM RADIUS OF
70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE
MAX WINDS 50KT

WARNING VALID 252100JST

Other warnings at METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Korea/ China: Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W) 12/1500Z POSITION nr 37.5N 125.1E, moving N/NNE 20 knots (JTWC) – Updated 120715 1500z (GMT/UTC)

July 12, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (09W)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.
Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

STS 1509 (CHAN-HOM)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 12 July 2015

<Analyses at 12/12 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N36°35′(36.6°)
	E125°00′(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure	980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more	E600km(325NM)
	W390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N39°40′(39.7°)
	E127°00′(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement	NNE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure	985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle	90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity	–
	LOW
Center position of probability circle	N42°10′(42.2°)
	E130°30′(130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	NE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure	992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed	18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle	160km(85NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 09W (Chan-hom) Warning #49
Issued at 12/1500Z

3 Hour Position Update Graphic <>Valid 11/2100Z

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z — NEAR 36.8N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 015 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.8N 124.7E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 39.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z — 40.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 37.5N 125.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM (09W) currently located near 36.8 N 124.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    North Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    South Korea
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    P’yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kanggye (41.0 N, 126.6 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Sinuiju (40.1 N, 124.4 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Ch’ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

CLICK IMAGE FOR MORE DETAIL

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 980 HPA
AT 36.6N 125.0E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 39.7N 127.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 42.2N 130.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED EASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 15N 176E 15N 180E 13N 180E 13N 176E 15N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 13N 176E 13N 180E 11N 180E 11N 176E 13N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 136E 33N 136E
35N 137E 36N 143E 43N 146E 56N 163E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N
160E 32N 142E 32N 136E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 49N 132E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 47N 153E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 57N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1511 NANGKA (1511) 950 HPA AT 18.6N 137.6E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 975 HPA AT 34.9N 124.2E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Further warnings exist for METAREA XI http://weather.gmdss.org/XI.html

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Mexico: Hurricane Carlos 03E CAT1 14/1200Z 15.8N 100.3W, stationary (NHC) – Updated 140615 1420Z (GMT/UTC)

June 14, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Hurricane Carlos 03E

(CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado

…CARLOS WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO…….NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 30 FEET – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Acapulco Radar, MX

a National Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 141141
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

…CARLOS WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.8N 100.3W
ABOUT 80 MI…130 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI…315 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB…29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 100.3 West. Carlos has been
nearly stationary for the past few hours. However, a turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. However, some restrengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force-winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
Monday night or early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Tuesday with
maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 03E (Carlos) Warning #15
Issued at 14/1000Z

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 141000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z — NEAR 15.6N 100.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 100.2W
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 16.3N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z — 16.9N 102.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 17.5N 103.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z — 18.0N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 20.0N 105.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 21.5N 105.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 23.5N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
REMARKS:
141000Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 100.5W. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 74 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.//
NNNN

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Jun, 2015 9:00 GMT

Hurricane CARLOS (03E) currently located near 15.8 N 100.3 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 85% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Acapulco (17.0 N, 99.9 W)
        probability for TS is 80% currently
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 45 hours
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours
    Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

000
FZPN03 KNHC 140937
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUN 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUN 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUN 16.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 15.8N 100.3W 980 MB AT 0900 UTC JUN 14
MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 80 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN
96W AND 104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 16.9N 102.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM W
AND 75 NM E SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA
FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL..
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 18.0N 104.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 105 NM W AND 90 NM E SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 28
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOS INLAND NEAR 20.0N 105.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOS OVER WATER NEAR 21.5N
105.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS INLAND NEAR 23.5N
106.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF 01N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9
FT IN SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02N W OF 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8
FT IN N SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC SUN JUN 14…

.HURRICANE CARLOS…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM SE
AND 30 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N105W TO 05N115W. ITCZ FROM 05N115W TO
04N120W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Mexico: Hurricane Blanca (02E) CAT2 070400Z POSITION nr 19.3N 110.4W, moving NNW 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 070615 0920Z (GMT/UTC)

June 7, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Hurricane Blanca 02E

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Loreto to Mulege

…WEAKENING BLANCA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32
FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Guasave Radar Loop

National Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 070837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

…WEAKENING BLANCA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.8N 110.8W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI…575 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Loreto to Mulege

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 110.8 West. Blanca is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slight increase
in forward speed tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Blanca will approach the southwest coast of the Baja
California peninsula later today and move near or along the coast
tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Blanca is expected to weaken to a tropical storm
tonight before it reaches the southwestern coast of the Baja
California peninsula. Blanca is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression Monday night.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
southern portion of the warning area by late this morning or early
this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm conditions will then spread northward elsewhere
within the warning area tonight and Monday. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the hurricane watch area later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 10 inches over much of Baja California Sur and the southern
half of the state of Baja California, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches over Baja California Sur. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 02E (Blanca) Warning #26
Issued at 07/0400Z

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN32 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z — NEAR 18.8N 110.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 110.2W
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 20.4N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 22.4N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 24.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 26.4N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 29.9N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 110.4W.
HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM EAST OF
SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.//
NNNN

END

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Jun, 2015 9:00 GMT

Hurricane BLANCA (02E) currently located near 19.8 N 110.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

000
FZPN03 KNHC 070256
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN JUN 07 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUN 07.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON JUN 08.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE JUN 09.

.WARNINGS.
…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE BLANCA NEAR 19.2N 110.4W 952 MB AT 0300 UTC JUN 07
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT
GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…120 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 130 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT…
390 NM SE QUADRANT…210 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT…240 NM
SE QUADRANT…240 NM SW QUADRANT AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 07N TO 27N
BETWEEN 102W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE BLANCA NEAR 22.4N 111.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE…110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
260 NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 10
TO 15 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 103W AND
127W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BLANCA NEAR 24.6N 112.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BLANCA NEAR 26.4N 113.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 180 N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM E AND 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BLANCA NEAR 29.9N
114.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMNANT LOW OF ANDRES NEAR 18N120W 1007 MB DRIFTING SE. WITHIN
90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND
SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS MERGE WITH BLANCA.

.S OF 00N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 117W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 06N79W TO 10N100W TO 10N120W TO
00N120W…EXCEPT LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07…

.HURRICANE BLANCA…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 109W
AND 112W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
108W AND 114W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN
88W AND 100W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN
104W AND 114W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
ITCZ FROM 11N130W TO 10N140W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

$$
.FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Andres (01E) CAT2 weakens slightly (NHC). 311000Z POSITION nr 15.5N 117.5W, moving WNW 06 knots (JTWC) – Published 310515 1447Z (GMT/UTC)

May 31, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Hurricane Andres (01E)

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

…..ANDRES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY…..NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

National Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 310835
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
200 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

…ANDRES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.4N 117.4W
ABOUT 710 MI…1145 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 117.4 West. Andres is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected today, and this general motion should
continue through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPN31 PHNC 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z — NEAR 15.3N 117.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 117.1W
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z — 15.8N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z — 16.3N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z — 16.8N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z — 17.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z — 19.0N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z — 19.5N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z — 19.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
311000Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 117.5W.
HURRICANE 01E (ANDRES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311600Z, 312200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z.
//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

000
FZPN03 KNHC 310941
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN MAY 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUN 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUN 02.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE ANDRES NEAR 15.4N 117.4W 968 MB AT 0900 UTC MAY 31
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT
GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 140 NM NE
QUADRANT…90 NM SE QUADRANT…80 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
210 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 33 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM
OF CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10
TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 06N TO 23N BETWEEN 109W AND 125W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ANDRES NEAR 16.3N 119.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT 180 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 08N TO 24N BETWEEN
113W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ANDRES NEAR 17.5N 122.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…90 NM NE QUADRANT AND
60 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N AND 210
NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N
AND 210 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
REMAINDER AREA S OF 25N TO A LINE FROM 06N117W TO 06N123W TO
12N134W BETWEEN 117W AND 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ANDRES NEAR 19.0N 125.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. EXTENDED
OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES NEAR 19.5N 127.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ANDRES NEAR 19.5N
128.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT
PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
18N134W TO 15N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY
IN MIXED E AND SW SWELL.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N102W 1008 MB. WITHIN 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 12N104W 1006 MB. WITHIN 75 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 13N105W 1006 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150
NM E SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.06 HOUR FORECAST S OF 00N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 08N E OF 124W TO A LINE FROM 08N113W TO
03.4S100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S95W TO 04N110W TO
00N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO
14.5N96W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N96W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
15.5N95W TO 13N96W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED NE
AND SW SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N95.5W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0730 UTC SUN MAY 31…
.HURRICANE ANDRES…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN
110W TO 116W.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N102W 1008 MB…NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180
NM SE AND S QUADRANTS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N119W TO 07N126W TO 10N137W TO
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG BETWEEN 60 NM AND 330 NM
SE OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 125W.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Up to 700 refugees feared dead after “worst massacre ever seen in the Mediterranean” (UN) – Major search & rescue op under way – Published 190415 1630z (GMT/UTC)

April 19, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

A ship carrying 700 migrants has capsized off the Libyan coast, the Italian news agency Ansa reported on Sunday, adding that many are feared dead.

Coastguard vessels rescued 28 people after the accident was reported around midnight, it said, giving no source for its report. The Times of Malta said migrants rushed to one side of the boat to alert a passing vessel, prompting the ship to capsize. The accident occurred some 200 kilometres south of the Italian island of Lampedusa, the Times of Malta reported. The rescue operation continues.

Sunday, 19 April, 2015 at 11:49 (11:49 AM) UTC RSOE

Other News Reports

15:22, UK, Sunday 19 April 2015

Search As Hundreds Of Boat Migrants Feared Dead

The capsizing of a boat, with up to 700 people on board, may be the “worst massacre ever seen in the Mediterranean”, says the UN.

Hundreds of people are feared drowned after a fishing boat trying to smuggle migrants to Europe capsized off Libya, the UN refugee agency says.

A major search and rescue operation by air and sea is taking place after the vessel, with up to 700 on board, went down about 120 miles south of the Italian island of Lampedusa.

It is believed to have overturned when migrants moved to one side of the overcrowded 20-metre long boat in a desperate bid to get off and be rescued as a merchant ship approached.

At least 28 people were saved in the Mediterranean, while there were other reports of 50 survivors.

The alarm was raised at about midnight and the Italian coastguard and navy are continuing to search for survivors.

Mediterranean migrants: Hundreds feared dead after boat capsizes

Media caption Aerial footage from the Italian coastguard shows recovery workers scouring Libyan waters

Hundreds of people are feared to have drowned after a boat carrying up to 700 migrants capsized in the Mediterranean Sea, the Italian coastguard says.

A major rescue operation is under way after the vessel, thought to be just 20m (70ft) long, capsized at midnight local time in Libyan waters south of the Italian island of Lampedusa.

So far 28 people have been rescued and 24 bodies retrieved.

At least 900 other migrants have died crossing the Mediterranean this year.

The UN refugee agency, the UNHCR, said the latest sinking could amount to the largest loss of life during a migrant crossing to Europe.

Live: Follow the latest developments

Italian naval and coastguard ships, the Maltese Navy and cargo vessels, along with three helicopters, are all involved in the rescue operation, 130 miles (210km) off the coast of Lampedusa and 17 miles (27km) from the Libyan coast.

The Italian coastguard’s spokesman told the BBC the operation was still focused on search and rescue, “but in time it will be a search [for bodies] only”.

Mediterranean migrants

13,500

Migrants rescued 10-17 April

900

Migrants died attempting the crossing between 1 Jan and 15 April

31,500 Migrants have arrived from North Africa so far this year
218,000 Estimated to have crossed the Mediterranean in 2014
3,500 Migrants died attempting the crossing last year

Source: UNHCR

AFP

The migrants reportedly fell overboard when they rushed to draw the attention of the passing Portuguese merchant ship King Jacob, causing their ship to capsize.

The Italian coastguard says the 28 survivors and 24 bodies are now on its vessel the Gregoretti.

Lampedusa is scrambling to react to the latest horror in the seas off its coastline. Much of the harbour has emptied. Coastguard, customs and fishing boats all left before dawn to help with the rescue.

Marta Bernardini works for the charity Mediterranean Hope, which is based on the island and works with migrants. She told the BBC: “We are very sad. It’s so difficult for us who live and work in Lampedusa every day, to know that a lot of people die in this way, in the Mediterranean Sea.”

Lampedusa is the most southerly point of Italy – nearer Africa than the Italian mainland. Locals say that since January – when the EU took control of patrolling Europe’s maritime borders – between 9,000 and 10,000 migrants have arrived on the island.

There are currently 1,000 migrants in a detention centre on Lampedusa – an island of 5,000 people.

Maltese PM Joseph Muscat said rescuers were “literally trying to find people alive among the dead floating in the water”.

Mr Muscat told the BBC: “What is happening now is of epic proportions. If Europe, if the global community continues to turn a blind eye… we will all be judged in the same way that history has judged Europe when it turned a blind eye to the genocide of this century and last century.”

Pope Francis expressed his “deepest sorrow” over the sinking and appealed to the international community to prevent such incidents from happening again.

Rescuers have so far found few bodies or survivors

An Italian coastguard official looks at the rescue area from the Rome operations room

“These are men and women like us who seek a better life. Hungry, persecuted, injured, exploited, victims of wars. They were looking for happiness,” he said.

It was the Pope’s second appeal in less than 24 hours. On Saturday, he backed a call by Italy for the EU to intervene to stop more lives from being lost.

The EU has been criticised for ending its maritime rescue operation, Mare Nostrum, last year. Some EU members said they could not afford it and expressed concerns that it was encouraging more migrants. The EU now runs a more limited border control operation called Triton.

While Mare Nostrum had a monthly budget of €9.5m ($10.3m; £9.6m) and covered much of the Mediterranean, Triton’s budget is less than a third of that at €2.9m ($3.1m), and its remit extends only into Maltese and Italian waters.

The migrants tried to get the attention of this passing Portuguese vessel

Pope Francis urged international leaders to act decisively to prevent further tragedies

The UNHCR said that migrant boats had carried 13,500 people into Italian waters last week alone.

Justin Forsyth, chief executive of aid group Save the Children, urged the EU to restart rescue operations.

“The scale of what is happening in the Mediterranean is not an accident, it is a direct result of our policy,” he said.

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said the recent wave of migrant boat disasters was “unacceptable”.

“We have said too many times ‘never again’. Now is time for the European Union as such to tackle these tragedies without delay,” she said.

EU foreign ministers will meet to discuss the migrant issue on Monday.

Last year, a record 170,000 people fleeing poverty and conflict in Africa and the Middle East made the perilous crossing to Italy. Thousands died making the journey.

Recent Mediterranean migrant disasters

Oct 2013: More than 360 people, mostly Eritreans and Somalis, die as their boat sinks off Lampedusa.

Sept 2014: At least 300 migrants drown off Malta when people smugglers ram a boat after its occupants refuse to move to a smaller one. Survivors said it was “mass murder”.

Feb 2015: At least 300 migrants feared drowned as four dinghies get into trouble after leaving Libyan coast in bad weather.

April 12, 2015: Some 400 migrants feared drowned after their vessel capsizes off Libya.

April 19, 2015: About 650 migrants feared drowned as boat capsizes in Libyan waters south of Lampedusa.

RTE News

EU plans meeting after 700 migrants drown off Libyan coast

Sunday 19 April 2015 15.07

1 of 2

Personnel in the control room room of the Italian Coast Guard in Rome help coordinate relief efforts

A boat transporting migrants arrives in the port of Messina yesterday after a rescue operation at sea

The European Union said it is organising an urgent meeting of foreign and interior ministers after the latest migrant boat disaster in the Mediterranean was feared to have killed up to 700 people.

In a statement, the European Commission said: “For as long as there is war and hardship in our neighbourhood near and far, people will continue to seek a safe haven on European shores.

“And as long as countries of origin and transit do not take action to prevent these desperate trips, people will continue to put their lives at risk.”
or
Full story here: http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0419/695113-malta-migrant-boat/

Italy PM: Don’t leave us to deal with migrant crisis alone

Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has urged other European countries not to leave his country alone in dealing with the increasing number of migrants being trafficked across the Mediterranean.

Speaking after a shipwreck which is estimated to have left hundreds of people dead, Renzi said Italy often works alone in saving migrants by both blocking trafficking from Libya and rescuing those that are left stranded at sea.

Last updated Sun 19 Apr 2015

New Caledonia/ Loyalty Islands/ Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Solo (23P) 120300Z POSITION near 20.7S 166.7E, moving ESE at 18 knots (JTWC) – Updated 120415 0905z (GMT/UTC)

April 12, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Cyclone Solo

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone SOLO

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 11 issued 0110 UTC Sunday 12 April 2015

Current and Past Cyclone Details

Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)

	Current Location and Intensity Number
	Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
	Destructive Storm Force Winds
	Damaging Gale Force Winds
	Past Track and Movement
	Past Location and Intensity Number

	Forecast Location and Intensity Number
	Very Destructive Wind Boundary
	Destructive Wind Boundary
	Gale Force Wind Boundary
	Most Likely Future Track
	Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name: Tropical Cyclone SOLO

Details:

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 am April 12	1	20.3S	166.0E	165
+6hr	6 am April 12	tropical low	21.1S	167.4E	195
+12hr	12 pm April 12	tropical low	22.1S	169.1E	220
+18hr	6 pm April 12	tropical low	23.1S	171.0E	250
+24hr	12 am April 13	tropical low	24.2S	173.3E	280
+36hr	12 pm April 13	tropical low	26.3S	178.1E	340
+48hr	12 am April 14	tropical low	28.4S	176.9W	400
+60hr	12 pm April 14	tropical low	31.9S	170.8W	485
+72hr	12 am April 15	tropical low	39.3S	161.5W	570

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 12/0138 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE [995HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.3S 166.0E AT 120000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

SOLO IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS CYCLONE STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES INTO A HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SST. DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LLCC WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH SUPPOSED
LLCC ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES FROM EDGE YIELDS DT=2.0, MET AND PAT
AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVES IT EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS IT.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 22.1S 169.1E MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 24.2S 173.3E MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 26.3S 178.1E MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 28.4S 176.9E MOV ESE AT 18 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TC SOLO UNLESS IT RE-INTENSIFIES.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z — NEAR 20.2S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 120 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 165.7E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z — 22.3S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z — 24.8S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 166.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
FULLY EXPOSED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM KNES. ADDITIONALLY, NUMEROUS NEARBY 120000z SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE, INCLUDING STATIONS 91582 AND 91579, WITH
A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOTS REPORTED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (CURRENTLY 35 TO 40 KNOTS) IS
STEADILY INCREASING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE REGION
ARE 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS, HOWEVER, TC SOLO WILL SOON REACH SUB-26
DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS. FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 18 KNOTS AS TC
23P TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 15 FEET.
//
NNNN

TSR SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Apr, 2015 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm SOLO (23P) currently located near 20.2 S 165.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Caledonia
probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Image: TSR

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

GALE WARNING 011 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 12/0100 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3
SOUTH 166.0 EAST AT 120000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.3S 166.0E AT 120000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
30 KNOTS BY 120600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.1S 169.1E AT 121200 UTC
AND NEAR 24.2S 173.3E AT 130000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL GALE WARNING ON TC SOLO UNLESS IT
RE-INTENSIFIES.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 010.

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone PAM 17P CAT3 151500Z POSITION nr 34.2S 178.8E, moving SE at 20 Kts (JTWC) – Updated 150315 1448z (GMT/UTC)

March 15, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Cyclone 17P (PAM)

**(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)**

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 40 FEET – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

New Zealand

Issued at 12:54am Monday 16 Mar 2015 (Local time)

UPDATE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM

At midnight Sunday tropical cyclone Pam was situated about 450km to the northeast of Auckland and 450km to the north of East Cape. It has already brought 70mm or rain to parts of Gisborne and 140 to 150 kilometer an hour wind gusts to exposed parts of Auckland and Northland.

It is expected to lie about 150km east of East Cape (northern Gisborne)by midday Monday,then move away from the New Zealand coastline towards the Chatham Islands.Strong southeast winds and rain are expected over much of the North Island today, along with extremely large seas about the east coast.Wind gusts of 160 km/h or more are possible about the eastern Bay of Plenty and northern parts of Gisborne.Winds of this strength are likely to cause damage to trees and powerlines and could lift roofs and make for hazardous driving conditions.A burst of heavy rain accompanies these winds, with 180-220 mm possible about the Gisborne ranges.Please refer to the latest severe weather warnings and watches issued by MetService for more information. The total combined waves (sea and swell)generated by cyclone Pam are expected to rise to 7-8m around the northern New Zealand coastline and even up to 9m around the northern Gisborne coast.
For any further information go to: http://www.metservice.com/national/home
The next update to this blog will be around midnight Sunday 15 March.
For further information please contact:
Duty Meteorologist 044700815
+++++++++++++

Cyclone Pam – Latest update 1am Monday 16th March

HORDUR THORDARSON, METSERVICE METEOROLOGIST

Sunday 16 March 2015 1:00am

Category 3 Cyclone Pam was lying near 34S 178.5E at midnight, or about 450 kilometres northeast of Auckland and 450 kilometres north of East Cape on a track to the south-southeast as shown on the image below.

Track

The effects of Cyclone Pam are already being felt in some areas. A wind gust to 150 kilometres per hour was observed near Kaeo in Northland and a gust of 144 kilometres an hour was observed at Channel Island between Coromandel Peninsula and Great Barrier Island this evening. Rain is becoming heavy in Gisborne and and 70mm have already accumulated in some areas there.

Pam is expected to be reclassified early this morning and will from then on be considered an extra tropical cyclone.

Why will it be re classified? The reason for this is that the nature of the system changes. A tropical cyclone derives its energy from latent heat released in strong deep convection. Warm moist air over a warm sea surface rises, condenses, warms further and continues to rise. This is the energy that intensifies and maintains a tropical cyclone. Once the cyclone moves south out of the tropics and over cooler waters this energy source decreases. Normally this will lead to a slow weakening of the system.

There is however a new energy source that becomes available to the storm as it moves out of the tropics. This energy comes from the difference between hot and cold air. If there is a large temperature difference over a relatively short distance this can be a powerful source of energy that re-energises the storm as it moves out of the tropics.

The main differences between a tropical cyclone and an extra tropical cyclone are:

Tropical Cyclone Extra tropical cyclone

No fronts Fronts

Winds max close the centre Wind maximum well away front the centre

Driven by latent heat release Strong temperature gradients

Reclassification does not mean that “Pam” no longer poses any threat. Extremely strong wind gusts, heavy rain and phenomenal waves are still expected, and details can be found in http://www.metservice.com/warnings/home as well as in http://blog.metservice.com/ or http://www.metservice.com/national/home

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTPS31 PGTW 151500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 33.3S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3S 178.3E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 37.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 34.2S 178.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND LIMITED CORE CONVECTION, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THIS IS CONFIRMED
WITH A 151246Z GPM IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM TAKING ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AS IT BECOMES FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON THE
TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 40 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Mar, 2015 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone PAM (17P) currently located near 33.3 S 178.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Zealand
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING

ZCZC 387
WHNZ41 NZKL 150626
HURRICANE WARNING 246
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREAS: SUBTROPIC AND FORTIES
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM 950HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0 SOUTH 177.
4 EAST AT 150600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 32.0S 177.4E AT 150600 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 70
KNOTS BY 151800 UTC AND THEN EASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 160600 UTC.
PHENOMENAL SEA EASING TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 320 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 280 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH VERY ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 35.6S 179.9E AT 151800 UTC
AND NEAR 38.4S 177.6W AT 160600 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 243.

NNNN

.Further warnings here:

METAREA X

METAREA XIV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

MASCARENES ISLANDS/MADAGASCAR: Tropical Cyclone HALIBA (15S, 11) 09/1200Z nr 21.8S 55.2E, moving ESE 8 Kts – Updated 090315 1640z (GMT/UTC)

March 9, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM (12) (RSMC La Reunion)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (HALIBA) (JTWC)

MASCARENES ISLANDS SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM

– (RSMC La Reunion)

ZCZC 549

ZCZC 549
WTIO30 FMEE 091222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/12/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA)
2.A POSITION 2015/03/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/10 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/03/10 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/03/11 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/03/11 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/03/12 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/13 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/03/14 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0-.
HALIBA HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z AND PROBABLY REACHED ITS INTENSITY PEAK (MAX W
INDS AT ABOUT 45KT), TEMPORARILY SHOWING A RAGGED EYE AT 08Z .
AFTER THAT, COULD PATTERN HAD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES A SEVERE IMPACT OF THE
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN A WEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND EXPERIENCING BY THAT TIME SOME DEEP STRUCTURE CHANGES WITH A LARGER AND MORE ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM MAY LOOSE ITS PURE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME ITS SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH AN ONGOING EXTRATROP PROCESS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING AND EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, INHABITANT OF THIS AREA SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN

La Reunion

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 21.3S 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 53.9E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 22.2S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.1S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 24.0S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 24.9S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z — 26.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 29.2S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET
SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HALIBA IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALLOWING TC 16S TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF
INCREASING VWS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 091221
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 09/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (HALIBA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 55.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXIST WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
22.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2015/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
23.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

Further warnings here:

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Australia (NT): Ex-Tropical Cyclone ‎LAM 12P has been downgraded to a tropical low. – BoM – Updated 200215 1140z (GMT/UTC)

February 20, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Ex-Tropical Cyclone LAM 12P

Ex-Cyclone Lam has been downgraded to a tropical low. Heavy rain continues over central Top End. – BoM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

NT

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam

Issued at 4:48 pm CST Friday 20 February 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 67

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Ex-Cyclone Lam has been downgraded to a tropical low. Heavy rain continues over central Top End.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam at 4:30 pm CST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South, 133.8 degrees East , 75 kilometres southwest of Bulman and 90 kilometres northeast of Beswick .
Movement: south southwest at 21 kilometres per hour .

Hazards:

Squally thunderstorms are likely to continue over the Top End.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low-lying areas and cause river rises over the central Top End. Locally very heavy rainfall which could cause flash flooding is possible. A Flood Watch for the Arnhem and Carpentaria Coastal Rivers has been issued.

The STORM TIDE risk for coastal residents between Milingimbi and the Queensland border will continue to ease, however ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES may still occur at the time of local high tides for the next day or two.

No further issues of this product.

Refer to Severe Weather Warning.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents of Elcho Island, Milingimbi, Gapuwiyak and Ramingining in shelter that it is now safe to leave shelter. Shelters will remain open where necessary and residents are advised to limit movement to essential travel only and proceed with care around affected communities.

Damage has occurred to power lines in affected areas and residents should STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES.

The Territory Controller advises that heavy rain has resulted in swollen waterways, creeks and drains and residents should stay away from these areas.

Details:

	Time (CST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm February 20	tropical low	14.1S	133.8E	55
+6hr	11 pm February 20	tropical low	14.6S	133.4E	40
+12hr	5 am February 21	tropical low	15.2S	133.0E	65
+18hr	11 am February 21	tropical low	15.8S	132.4E	85
+24hr	5 pm February 21	tropical low	16.3S	131.8E	110
+36hr	5 am February 22	tropical low	17.3S	130.4E	145
+48hr	5 pm February 22	tropical low	18.4S	129.1E	180
+60hr	5 am February 23	tropical low	19.5S	127.6E	220
+72hr	5 pm February 23	tropical low	20.4S	125.7E	255

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:00 pm CST Friday

Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITYTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 67
Issued at 4:15 pm CST on Friday 20 February 2015

Headline:
Ex-Cyclone Lam has been downgraded to a tropical low. Heavy rain continues over central Top End.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None

Watch Zone
None

Cancelled Zone
The Cyclone WARNING for inland parts of the central Arnhem District has been cancelled.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam at 4:00pm CST
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South 133.8 degrees East, estimated to be 75 kilometres southwest of Bulman and 90 kilometres northeast of Beswick.

Movement: south southwest at 21 kilometres per hour.

Hazards:
Squally thunderstorms are likely to continue over the Top End.

Refer to Severe Weather Warning.

Recommended Action:
The Territory Controller advises residents of Elcho Island, Milingimbi, Gapuwiyak and Ramingining in shelter that it is now safe to leave shelter. Shelters will remain open where necessary and residents are advised to limit movement to essential travel only and proceed with care around affected communities.

Damage has occurred to power lines in affected areas and residents should STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES.

The Territory Controller advises that heavy rain has resulted in swollen waterways, creeks and drains and residents should stay away from these areas.

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area. Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

Next Advice:
No further advices will be issued for this system.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z — NEAR 12.6S 134.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 134.9E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 13.5S 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 14.5S 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 15.8S 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 16.9S 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
—
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 134.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM EAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
12P IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONFIRMED BY
RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM GOVE AIRPORT AND WARRUWI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THESE RADARS ALSO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATION STATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERALL LAND INTERACTION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION. TC LAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
SOUTHWESTERN TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
HIGH CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH WEST BASIN. AS THE HIGH
TRACKS TO THE WEST, EXPECT TC 12P TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERRITORY, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING IN THE
VICINITY OF GREGORY NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

NT Ocean Wind Warning affecting WA border area issued at 0056 UTC Friday 20 February 2015
NT Ocean Wind Warning affecting WA border area issued at 0056 UTC Friday 20 February 2015
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin issued at 0722 UTC Friday 20 February 2015

Further warnings here:

METAREA X
METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Madagascar/Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Fundi 11S 08/2100Z POSITION nr 33.4S 43.8E, moving SW at 25 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080215 2220z

February 8, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Cyclone Fundi 11S

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC LA REUNION

Bulletin du 08 février à 22H18 locales:

Il n’y a pas d’alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n’est envisagée pour les

prochaines 72 heures.

**************************************************

Nature du système dépressionnaire tropical présent sur le Sud-Ouest de l’Océan Indien.

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNDI.

Pression estimée au centre: 991 HPA.

Position le 08 février à 22 heures locales: 32.3 Sud / 44.2 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1650 km au secteur: SUD-OUEST.

Déplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 33 km/h.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 09/02 à 22h locales, par 35.8 Sud / 40.6 Est.

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,

Centre positionné le 10/02 à 22h locales, par 36.8 Sud / 40.1 Est.

SE DISSIPANT,

Centre positionné le 11/02 à 22h locales, par 38.8 Sud / 42.7 Est.

————————————————-

Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d’intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus

grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du

phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.

Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.

Prochain bulletin vers 05H locales

Translation (by google):

Bulletin 08 February at 10:18 p.m. local:
There is no current alert Reunion, and no hurricane threat is considered for
next 72 hours.
**************************************************
Nature of tropical low pressure system present on the Southwest Indian Ocean.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FUNDI.
Estimated central pressure: 991 HPA.
Position 8 February at 22 am local time: 32.3 South / 44.2 East.
Distance from Reunion coast: 1650 km sector: SOUTHWEST.
Displacement: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, 33 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 09/02 at 22h local by 35.8 South / 40.6 East.
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 10/02 at 22h local by 36.8 South / 40.1 East.
DISSIPATING,
Center positioned 11/02 at 22h local by 38.8 South / 42.7 East.
————————————————-
Warning: The forecast path and previous intensity should be treated with the most
caution because of their uncertainty. They are for the center position
phenomenon, regardless of its extension.
This newsletter is now complete.
Next bulletin to local 05H

WTIO31 FMEE 081825
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/9/20142015
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (FUNDI)
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/02/2015 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(TRENTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 18 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :44 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 60
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/02/2015 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
24H: 09/02/2015 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2015 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2015 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2015 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2015 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
SOUS LA DOUBLE INFLUENCE D’UN CISAILLEMENT ASSEZ FORT DE NORD-NORD-
OUEST ET D’INTRUSION D’AIR PLUS SEC DANS LA CIRCULATION DE MOYENNE

TROPOSPHERE PAR LE NORD-OUEST, LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES
APPARAIT, A L’IMAGERIE MSG3, PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE AU NORD DE LA
CONVECTION RESIDUELLE.
CETTE ENTREE D’AIR PLUS SEC ET PLUS FRAIS AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION
MARQUE LE DEBUT DU PROCESSUS D’EXTRA-TROPICALISATION QUI DEVRAIT ETRE
COMPLETE DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.
COMME PREVU, SOUS L’INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE (CF Z700 ET Z850) QUI SE RECONSTRUIT AU SUD-EST, FUNDI A
RECOURBE ET RALENTI SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST.
IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE RALENTIR LUNDI EN SE DIRIGEANT GLOBALEMENT
VERS L’OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
CETTE DORSALE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RETRACTER VERS L’EST MARDI,
FUNDI DEVRAIT ALORS RECOURBER VERS LE SUD ASSEZ LENTEMENT DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS PUIS ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST MERCREDI ET SE DISSIPER
DANS LA NUIT SUIVANTE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D’OUEST DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

WTIO31 FMEE 081,825
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE OF LA REUNION
ANALYSIS REPORT AND FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 12/9/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC ON 02/08/2015:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(THIRTY TWO THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 18 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5 / 3.0 / 0.5 W / H 6
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 40 KT
RAY OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): 44 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANT (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE 280 SW 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE 190 SW 190 NO: 60
7.A / DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 02/09/2015 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 035 KT, POST
TROPICAL
24H: 02/09/2015 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND = 030 KT, POST
TROPICAL
36H: 02/10/2015 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
48H: 02/10/2015 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
60H: 11/02/2015 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
72H: 11/02/2015 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B TREND LATER:
2.C:
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH OF NORTHWEST NORTH
INTRUSION OF WEST AND DRIER AIR AVERAGE CIRCULATION
LEVEL BY NORTHWEST FLOW LOW LAYERS
APPEARS IN IMAGING MSG3, PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH
RESIDUAL CONVECTION.
THIS ENTRY AIR DRIER AND COOLER IN TRAFFIC
MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE PROCESS OF EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION THAT SHOULD BE
COMPLETE IN MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY.
AS PROVIDED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW AND MIDDLE RIDGE
LEVEL (CF Z700 AND Z850) WHICH IS REBUILT SOUTHEAST, A FUNDI
CURLED AND SLOW TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW MOVING GENERALLY MONDAY
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
BACK THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TO WITHDRAW FROM EASTERN Tuesday,
FUNDI RECURVE SHOULD THEN SOUTH RATHER SLOWLY IN
FIRST TIME THEN ACCELERATE SOUTH-EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DISSIPATE
IN THE NIGHT IN THE WEST OF DISTURBED TRAFFIC
MID-LATITUDE.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/11S_081732sair.jpg

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 32.8S 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8S 44.2E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 35.1S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 33.4S 43.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FUNDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM SOUTH
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ELONGATING AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WHICH IS LEAVING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY EXPOSED. TC 11S HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25C. IN ADDITION, DRY AIR IS WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 081634Z SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE
AND CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO COMPLETE
DISSIPATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 081817

WTIO24 FMEE 081817
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2015
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 08/02/2015 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, UP TO 450 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN OUTER PERIPHERAL BANDS, AND ALSO
LOCALLY UP TO 600 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
34.9 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
35.8 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
FUNDI IS PROGRESSIVELY LOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.=

More warnings here:

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm 1502/ 02W HIGOS 072100Z POSITION nr 11.8N 157.6E, moving N at 6 knots (JTWC) – Published 070215 2150z

February 7, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Storm HIGOS (1502, 02W)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

1502

TS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 7 February 2015

<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale	–
Intensity	–
Center position	N11°25′(11.4°)
	E157°25′(157.4°)
Direction and speed of movement	N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure	1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more	ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N12°05′(12.1°)
	E156°30′(156.5°)
Direction and speed of movement	NW Slowly
Central pressure	996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle	130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N12°40′(12.7°)
	E154°50′(154.8°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW Slowly
Central pressure	990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle	200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity	–
Center position of probability circle	N13°35′(13.6°)
	E152°55′(152.9°)
Direction and speed of movement	WNW Slowly
Central pressure	985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center	25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed	35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle	300km(160NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z — NEAR 11.6N 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 157.7E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z — 12.4N 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z — 12.9N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 13.4N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 14.3N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 15.8N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 16.7N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
—
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 157.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

NASA’s Hurricane Web Page

070215 2003Z

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN – Tropical depression Higos or 02W has formed about 400 nautical miles east-northeast of Chuuk, near 10.9 north and 157.6 east. It has maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (34.5 mph/55.5 kph) and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm with max. winds to 60 knots.
Higos is moving north-northwest and is expected to curve northeast and become extra-tropical. It is not expected to directly affect any islands in the vicinity, however, it will stir up rough seas.
Today, Feb. 7 at 13:46 UTC (8:36 a.m. EST) NASA-JAXA’s GPM satellite data shows fragmented thunderstorm bands on the eastern side of the storm wrapping into the center.

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

ZCZC 538
WTPQ50 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1502 HIGOS (1502) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 11.4N 157.4E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 12.1N 156.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 091800UTC 12.7N 154.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 101800UTC 13.6N 152.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 111800UTC 15.0N 151.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
120HF 121800UTC 16.0N 149.9E 300NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY =
NNNN

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1502 HIGOS (1502) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 11.4N 157.4E MARSHALLS MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 12.1N 156.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 12.7N 154.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 13.6N 152.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

More warnings here:

METAREA XI

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South Indian Ocean: Very Intense Tropical cyclone EUNICE (8 & 09s) 300600Z near 18.4S / 68.0E, moving SSE at 8 knots (RSMC La Reunion) – Published 300115 0800z (GMT/UTC)

January 30, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice (8)(09S)

**(Equivalent to CATEGORY 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)**

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTXS32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EUNICE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z — NEAR 17.7S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 67.7E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 19.0S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z — 19.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 20.7S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 21.1S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 17 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 22.1S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z — 25.9S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z — 31.4S 97.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EUNICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 31NM EYE. A 292311Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE WELL DEFINED CENTRAL CORE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE SHARP CONSOLIDATED NATURE OF
THE CYCLONE. TC EUNICE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY BELOW A POINT SOURCE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IN ADDITION, TC
09S IS TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
GRADIENT PROLONGING ITS EXPOSURE TO SSTS GREATER THAN 26C. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ENABLING TC EUNICE TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24 TO A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 24 TC 09S WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND
REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS THE EAST AS THE NER REORIENTS TO THE NORTH.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 09S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

ZCZC 123
WTIO20 FMEE 300608
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2015 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 30/01/2015 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EUNICE) 900 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 68.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH
ERN SEMI CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/130 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CE
NTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTEN
DING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 115 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTE
NDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, E
XTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/30 AT 18 UTC:
19.5 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND = 130 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2015/01/31 AT 06 UTC:
20.4 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL
NNNN

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UK: 5 fishermen rescued off the Hebredies after their boat Iuda Naofa sank – Published 200115 1815z (GMT/UTC)

January 20, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

The Coastguard was notified of a fishing vessel in distress just before 11am this morning. The Iuda Naofa, a 23m Irish fishing vessel, was taking on water 48 miles north of the Butt of Lewis.

The Coastguard Rescue helicopter was requested to attend the scene and drop a salvage pump onto the Iuda Naofa to pump off the ingress of water. However, the vessel became swamped and started to sink.

The Coastguard Rescue helicopter airlifted two of the crew onto the nearby sister fishing vessel, the Star of Hope. The other three crew were transferred by helicopter to the Western Isles hospital, where they are being treated for mild hypothermia.

Coastguard Duty Watch Manager, Paul Tunstall said

“The weather conditions on scene were very rough seas with southerly force 6 winds, evacuating the five crew swiftly and safely before the vessel went down was a great achievement.” –Maritime and Coastguard Agency

“Malin Head Coast Guard assisted in the saving of 5 fishermen off the Hebredies this afternoon. At about 1030 this morning Malin picked up a call for help on medium frequency 2182Khz for the Iuda Naofa taking water. Details taken and passed to MRCC Stornaway who sent out a helicopter. The boat sank. 3 crew airlifted and 2 taken onboard another boat Star of Hope. Only for the Listening watch the IRCG continue to hold on 2182Khz this could have easily ended with loss of life. This is the second 2182 call that Malin has dealt with in recent months both of which resulted in lives been saved. Well done lads.” –Irish Coast Guard

News Reports

20 January 2015 Last updated at 17:28

Five rescued after fishing boat sinks off Isle of Lewis

Five people were airlifted from the Irish vessel Iuda Naofa when it began to sink

Five crewmen have been rescued after a fishing boat started to sink off the Isle of Lewis.

The Irish vessel Iuda Naofa got into difficulty at about 11:00 when it started taking on water about 48 miles (77km) off the Butt of Lewis.

Stornoway Coastguard helicopter dropped a salvage pump to the crew, but the boat became swamped and started to sink.

Two crewmen were then airlifted to another boat and three to hospital.

The three have been treated at Western Isles Hospital for hypothermia.

The fishing boat has sunk.

Coastguard duty watch manager Paul Tunstall said: “The weather conditions on scene were very rough seas with southerly force 6 winds, evacuating the five crew swiftly and safely before the vessel went down was a great achievement.”

Australia (WA): Tropical Low moving off W Kimberley coast unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone (TCWC Perth) – Published 190115 1123z (GMT/UTC)

January 19, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Tropical Low

The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone (TCWC Perth)

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 5:43 pm WST Monday 19 January 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 14.

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Kimberley low unlikely to become a tropical cyclone. Warnings cancelled but the system will be closely monitored.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: No active warning areas.

Watch zone: No active watch areas.

Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near centre 28 kilometres per hour with wind gusts 83 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 18.2 degrees South, 121.9 degrees East , 45 kilometres southwest of Broome and 420 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour .

The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone.

Hazards:

Sustained gales are not expected in coastal communities but areas of heavy rain are likely over the west Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Warnings for more details – http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Recommended Action:

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

ALL CLEAR: People in, near or between Cape Leveque and Mardie are advised that damaging winds are no longer expected.

Details:

	Time (WST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm January 19	tropical low	18.2S	121.9E	75
+6hr	11 pm January 19	tropical low	18.6S	120.7E	85
+12hr	5 am January 20	tropical low	19.2S	119.3E	100
+18hr	11 am January 20	tropical low	19.8S	117.6E	120
+24hr	5 pm January 20	tropical low	20.6S	115.7E	140
+36hr	5 am January 21	tropical low	21.6S	113.3E	175
+48hr	5 pm January 21	tropical low	22.6S	111.9E	215
+60hr	5 am January 22	tropical low	23.1S	110.9E	260
+72hr	5 pm January 22	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.#

Western Australia Warnings Summary

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/index.shtml?ref=hdr

JTWC

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:18S122E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0952UTC 19 JANUARY 2015

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0900 UTC a tropical low was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal two south (18.2S)
longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal nine east (121.9E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 15 knots
Central pressure: 1003 hPa
The tropical low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

AREA AFFECTED
Nil.

FORECAST
Gales are no longer expected over marine areas

REMARKS

No further warnings will be issued unless the system intensifies.

WEATHER PERTH

There are other warnings at METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

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Mauritius/La Reunion: Tropical Storm CHEDZA 06S 181200Z: 22.9 S / 52.3 E, moving SE 8 at knots(RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 180115 1520z (GMT/UTC)

January 18, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA 06

….. HEAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS. – RSMC LA REUNION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

RSMC LA REUNION

Bulletin Réunion
JOURNEE DU DIMANCHE 18

La Tempête tropicale CHEDZA était située à 16h à 360km a l Ouest-Sud-ouest des côtes réunionnaises et se déplace vers le sud-est à 15km/h.

Vigilance houle cyclonique d’ouest de 2.5m à 3 m sur les cotes Ouest et Sud en cours.

Flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest humide.
NUIT DU DIMANCHE 18 AU LUNDI 19
Les précipitions deviennent éparses sur l Est en début de nuit pour devenir plus fréquentes dans le Nord de l’île approximativement de St Leu à St Benoit en passant par le chef lieu en seconde partie de nuit .

Le vent de secteur Nord reste soutenu plus particulièrement sur les façades Nord-Ouest et Est ( 60 à 70km/h) et dans les hauts de la Réunion avec des rafales pouvant atteindre les 80 à 90 Km/h
LUNDI 19
Pris dans le flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest des averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest et Nord, ailleurs comme dans le sud sauvage le ciel est plus clément avec de belles éclaircies.

Au fil des heures l’instabilité se réactive et les nuages se développent dans l’intérieur.

Ces deniers débordent ensuite sur le sud sauvage où des averses sont alors attendues.

Le vent reste soutenue il souffle principalement sur les côtes Ouest et Est avec des rafales de 70 à 80km/h. Sur les hauteurs exposées, les rafales sont proches de 80 km/h.

La mer est agitée à forte au vent, une vigilance houle cyclonique d’Ouest est en cours de Champs-Borne à la Pointe de la Table en passant par St Leu, houle comprise entre 2. et 2.5 mètres soit 5 m pour les hauteurs maximales . Une houle de Sud-Est de 2.5 à 3 est egalement de mise sur les cotes Est et Sud .
MARDI 20
Poussées par un vent d’Ouest, quelques averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest, ailleurs c’est globalement du soleil. Au fil des heures, les nuages se développent dans

l’intérieure de l’ile et des débordement nuageux concernent le sud de la Réunion ou quelques averses peuvent se produire

Vent d ouest modéré avec des rafales sur les cote Sud-Ouest.

houle de Sud Ouest de 2 a 2.5M de la Pointe de Aigrette à la Pointe de la Table.
MERCREDI 21
Belle journée, la masse d’air s’assèche le soleil l’emporte. les développement nuageux de l apres-midi restent limites.

vent de Sud-Ouest faible à modéré le matin, tournant Sud en fin de journée.

Houle d ouest sud ouest de 2 à 2.5m

Reunion Bulletin
DAY SUNDAY 18

Tropical Storm CHEDZA was located at 16h to al 360km west-south-west coast of Reunion and moves southeast at 15km / h.

Vigilance westerly cyclonic swell from 2.5m to 3m on South West Coasts and in progress.

RSS wet North-West.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY 18 19

The rush become scattered over the East early night in order to become more common in the north of the island approximately St Leu in St Benoit through the main town in the second part of the night.

North wind sector remains particularly strong on Northwest and east facades (60 to 70km / h) and the heights of the Meeting with gusts to 80 to 90 km / h

Monday 19

Caught in the flow of North-West showers are possible early in the day on the west facade and north as elsewhere in the wild south the sky is partly cloudy skies with.

As the hours instability reactivates and clouds develop in the interior.

These funds then spill over into the wild south, where rainfall is then expected.

The wind remains strong it blows mainly on the west and east coast with gusts of 70 to 80 km / h. On the exposed heights, the bursts are near 80 km / h.

The sea is rough with strong wind, vigilance cyclone swell West is being Champs Terminal Point Table via St Leu, swell between 2 and 2.5 m or 5 m for the maximum heights . A Southeast swell from 2.5 to 3 is also placing on the east and south coasts.

Tuesday 20

Driven by a west wind, some rain showers are possible early in the day on the west facade, it is also generally the sun. The hours, the clouds develop in

interior of the island and cloudy infinity concern southern Meeting or a few showers may occur

West of moderate wind with gusts on the South West Coast.

Southwest swell 2 to 2.5M of Pointe Heron Pointe de la Table.

Wednesday 21

Beautiful day, the mass of air dries the sun wins. development of cloudy after noon are limits.

Southwest winds weak to moderate in the morning, turning south in the afternoon.

Houle southwest of West 2 to 2.5m

Bulletin du 18 JANVIER à 16H45 locales:
Il n’y a pas d’alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n’est envisagée pour les
prochaines 72 heures.
**************************************************
Nature des systèmes dépressionnaires tropicaux présents sur le Sud-Ouest de l’Océan Indien.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE EX-BANSI.
Pression estimée au centre: 960 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 25.8 Sud / 78.3 Est.
(vingt cinq degres huit sud et soixante dix-huit degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 2340 km au secteur: EST-SUD-EST.
Déplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 46 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 33.0 Sud / 90.9 Est.
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 38.1 Sud / 104.1 Est.
————————————————-
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHEDZA.
Pression estimée au centre: 982 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 22.9 Sud / 52.3 Est.
(vingt deux degres neuf sud et cinquante deux degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 360 km au secteur: OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
Déplacement: SUD-EST, à 15 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 25.3 Sud / 53.1 Est.
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 27.8 Sud / 54.6 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 21/01 à 16h locales, par 30.6 Sud / 57.9 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 22/01 à 16h locales, par 35.4 Sud / 63.1 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 23/01 à 16h locales, par 45.5 Sud / 78.5 Est.
————————————————-
Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d’intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus
grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du
phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Prochain bulletin vers 23h local

Bulletin January 18 at 4:45 p.m. local:
There is no current alert Reunion, and no hurricane threat is considered for
next 72 hours.
**************************************************
Nature of tropical storm systems present on the southwestern Indian Ocean.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-BANSI.
Estimated central pressure 960 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time 25.8 South / 78.3 East.
(twenty five eight degrees south and seventy-eight degrees is three).
Distance from Reunion coast: 2340 km to the sector: EAST SOUTHEAST.
Displacement: EAST SOUTHEAST, 46 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 33.0 South / 90.9 East.
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 38.1 South / 104.1 East.
————————————————-
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA.
Estimated central pressure 982 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time: 22.9 South / 52.3 East.
(twenty two nine degrees fifty-two degrees south and three east).
Distance from Reunion coast 360 km sector: WEST-SOUTHWEST.
Displacement: SOUTHEAST 15 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 25.3 South / 53.1 East.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 27.8 South / 54.6 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 21/01 at 16h local by 30.6 South / 57.9 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 22/01 at 16h local by 35.4 South / 63.1 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Centre positioned on 23/01 at 16h local by 45.5 South / 78.5 East.
————————————————-
Warning: The forecast path and previous intensity should be treated with the most
caution because of their uncertainty. They are for the center position
phenomenon, regardless of its extension.
This newsletter is now complete.
Next newsletter to 23h local

ZCZC 453
WTIO30 FMEE 181306

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CHEDZA)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 52.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 350 SW: 190 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/01/20 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/01/21 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/22 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/01/23 12 UTC: 45.5 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT PATTERN LOOKS UNCONVENTIONAL AND MENTIONED INTENSITY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK TECHNIQ
UE THAT IS NOT ADAPTED ANY-MORE FOR THIS KIND OF SYSTEM.
DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIG
H PRESSURES.
IN THE WAKE OF CHEZA, IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, OUTER PERIPHERAL BANDS EXIST AND OCCUR LOCALLY H
EAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS.
CHEDZA KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARDS TOWARDS A TRANSIENT MID
-LEVEL TROUGH.
ON THIS PATH, FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR IS LOW TO MODER
ATE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD ALLOW SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
FROM TUESDAY, THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS LIKELY TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

No warning

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 181240

WTIO22 FMEE 181240
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BANSI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 78.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 180 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 430 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 620 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 710 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
29.1 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
33.0 S / 90.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VII

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S 161200Z POSITION nr 21.6 S / 66.4 E, moving SE 16 knots ((RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 160115 1453z (GMT/UTC)

January 16, 2015 by Goaty's News UK

Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S

**(Equivalent to CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)**

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC LA REUNION

KML Google Earth

WTIO31 FMEE 161237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/5/20142015
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/01/2015 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 926 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SO: 640 NO: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 150
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/01/2015 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
24H: 17/01/2015 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
36H: 18/01/2015 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 18/01/2015 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
60H: 19/01/2015 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
72H: 19/01/2015 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2015 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 21/01/2015 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5+ ET CI=6.5+
LA SIGNATURE DVORAK S’EST DEGRADEE DEPUIS LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC
UN OEIL DE PLUS DE 45 MN DE DIAMETRE. L’IMAGE MICRO-ONDE F15 DE 1026Z
MONTRE UNE EROSION DU MUR DE L’OEIL COTE OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE MEME
SI LE CI DVORAK EST A 6.5+, L’INTENSITE DU VENT MAX A ETE RETROGRADEE A 110
KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE CES ELEMENTS. BANSI CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER
REGULIEREMENT ET RAPIDEMENT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST.
BANSI DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L’EST-SUD-EST DANS LE
COURANT DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU PLONGER VERS LE SUD-EST.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME PASSE MAINTENANT AU SUD DE LA
DORSALE D’ALTITUDE ET UN TALWEG DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SE RAPPROCHE
PAR LE SUD-OUEST. PAR CONSEQUENT LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT AUGMENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT ET EN RAISON DE LA
BAISSE DU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS 25S, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT COMMENCER A ACQUERIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES HYBRIDES POST-
TROPICALES DIMANCHE, PUIS EXTRATROPICALES A PARTIR DE LUNDI OU MARDI.
JUSQUE MARDI, LES VENTS NE VONT S’ATTENUER QUE LENTEMENT AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION. MERCREDI LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT

ZCZC 570
WTIO30 FMEE 161237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20142015
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 926 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SW: 640 NW: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SW: 500 NW: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 300 NW: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/17 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/17 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/18 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/18 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+ AND CI=6.5+
THE DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS DEGRADED FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH AN EYE
DIAMETER MORE LARGE THAN 45 NM. 1026Z F15 MW PICTURE SHOWS AN ERODED
EYE-WALL WESTWARD. CONSEQUENTLY, CI IS AT 6.5+ DUE TO DVORAK
CONSTRAINT, BUT INTENSITY OF THE MAXIMUM WIND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED AT
110 KT. BANSI CONTINUES TO MOVE REGULARLY AND RAPIDLY ON A
SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
TONIGHT BANSI IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD.
WITHIN THE NIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
AGAIN SOUTH-EASTWARD.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COME CLOSER TO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR IS
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AND IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENTS NEAR 25S, BANSI IS LIKELY TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL HYBRID SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, THEN EXTRA-TROPICAL FROM
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
UNTIL TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP RAPIDLY.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Google Earth Graphic Overlay

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 20.0S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 65.3E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 22.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 23.4S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 24.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 25.6S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 31.6S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES TC BANSI HAS RE-STRENGTHENED AS THE EYE HAS
CONTRACTED DOWN TO 32NM AS THE CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC AND DEFINED. HOWEVER, A 160442Z AMSU-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE REMAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE OBSERVED IN THE MSI ANIMATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONTRACTION OF THE EYE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, FMEE AND FIMP
WHILE KNES INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE AS WIDELY DIVERGENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESSING ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TC 05S
IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH WILL BE ACCELERATED BY TAU 36
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 05S IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72
WHICH WILL COMPLETE ETT. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Tropical Storm Risk

See:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201505S.html

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8S / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 151223

WTIO20 FMEE 161228
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI) 926 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 200 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 300
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 345 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 390 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 420 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VIII_S

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Typhoon Mujigae 22W

(=CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

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Typhoon Dujuan (21W)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Ishigakijima, Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan and China beware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET (JTWC)

TY 1521 (DUJUAN) Issued at 12:50 UTC, 25 September 2015

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Other Reports

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 0900

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Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET (JTWC)

STS 1520 (KROVANH) Issued at 15:45 UTC, 16 September 2015

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

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Tropical Depression Nineteen (19W)

VIETNAM BEWARE!

TD Issued at 15:55 UTC, 13 September 2015

VIETNAM

National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

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Tropical Storm Kilo

LOW Issued at 12:35 UTC, 11 September 2015

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2015 0:00 GMT (Final Warning)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

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Typhoon Kilo 1517 03C

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1800

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Tropical Storm Grace

Other Reports

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA2 / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 0751

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Hurricane Fred

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Cape Verde Islands

TSR N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2015 15:00 GMT

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

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Hurricane Ignacio 12E CAT4

HAWAII: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST WATERS (NWS HONOLULU HI)

…..MAJOR HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD….CPHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 36 FEET (JTWC)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1436

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Hurricane Danny

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

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Hurricane Hilda (10E)

(CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

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Hurricane Guillermo (09E)

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 012039

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Typhoon Halola (01C)

( = CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

Minamidaitōjima, Amami Ōshima, Okinawa, Japan Mainland and South Korea BEWARE!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 23 FEET (JTWC)

TY 1512 (HALOLA) Issued at 12:50 UTC, 24 July 2015

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Jul, 2015 12:00 GMT

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

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TY 1521 (DUJUAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 25 September 2015

STS 1520 (KROVANH)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 16 September 2015

TD
Issued at 15:55 UTC, 13 September 2015

LOW
Issued at 12:35 UTC, 11 September 2015

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cape Verde Islands

HAWAII: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST WATERS (NWS HONOLULU HI)

TY 1512 (HALOLA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 24 July 2015

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. (JTWC)

STS 1509 (CHAN-HOM)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 12 July 2015

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Loreto to Mulege

…WEAKENING BLANCA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32
FEET. (JTWC)