The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone (TCWC Perth)
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
- Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
- Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
Past Cyclone Details
- Past Location and Intensity Number
- Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details
- Current Location and Intensity Number
- Very Destructive Winds
- Destructive Winds
- Gale Force Winds
Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)
- Forecast Location and Intensity Number
- Very Destructive Wind Boundary
- Destructive Wind Boundary
- Gale Force Wind Boundary
- Most Likely Future Track
- Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Kimberley low unlikely to become a tropical cyclone. Warnings cancelled but the system will be closely monitored.
Warning zone: No active warning areas.
Watch zone: No active watch areas.
Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near centre 28 kilometres per hour with wind gusts 83 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 18.2 degrees South, 121.9 degrees East , 45 kilometres southwest of Broome and 420 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour .
The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast, but conditions are not favourable for development. There is only a slight chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone.
Sustained gales are not expected in coastal communities but areas of heavy rain are likely over the west Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Warnings for more details – http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.
DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
ALL CLEAR: People in, near or between Cape Leveque and Mardie are advised that damaging winds are no longer expected.
|Time (WST)||Intensity Category||Latitude
|0hr||5 pm January 19||tropical low||18.2S||121.9E||75|
|+6hr||11 pm January 19||tropical low||18.6S||120.7E||85|
|+12hr||5 am January 20||tropical low||19.2S||119.3E||100|
|+18hr||11 am January 20||tropical low||19.8S||117.6E||120|
|+24hr||5 pm January 20||tropical low||20.6S||115.7E||140|
|+36hr||5 am January 21||tropical low||21.6S||113.3E||175|
|+48hr||5 pm January 21||tropical low||22.6S||111.9E||215|
|+60hr||5 am January 22||tropical low||23.1S||110.9E||260|
|+72hr||5 pm January 22||tropical low||XXX||XXX||XXX|
Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye
There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.#
Western Australia Warnings Summary
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0952UTC 19 JANUARY 2015
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
At 0900 UTC a tropical low was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal two south (18.2S)
longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal nine east (121.9E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 15 knots
Central pressure: 1003 hPa
The tropical low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.
Gales are no longer expected over marine areas
No further warnings will be issued unless the system intensifies.
There are other warnings at METAREA X
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