Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S 161200Z POSITION nr 21.6 S / 66.4 E, moving SE 16 knots ((RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 160115 1453z (GMT/UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi 05S

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

si201505_5day

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC LA REUNION

Bansi

KML Google Earth

WTIO31 FMEE 161237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/5/20142015
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/01/2015 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 926 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SO: 640 NO: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 150
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/01/2015 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
24H: 17/01/2015 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
36H: 18/01/2015 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 18/01/2015 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
60H: 19/01/2015 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
72H: 19/01/2015 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2015 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 21/01/2015 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5+ ET CI=6.5+
LA SIGNATURE DVORAK S’EST DEGRADEE DEPUIS LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC
UN OEIL DE PLUS DE 45 MN DE DIAMETRE. L’IMAGE MICRO-ONDE F15 DE 1026Z
MONTRE UNE EROSION DU MUR DE L’OEIL COTE OUEST. EN CONSEQUENCE MEME
SI LE CI DVORAK EST A 6.5+, L’INTENSITE DU VENT MAX A ETE RETROGRADEE A 110
KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE CES ELEMENTS. BANSI CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER
REGULIEREMENT ET RAPIDEMENT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST.
BANSI DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L’EST-SUD-EST DANS LE
COURANT DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU PLONGER VERS LE SUD-EST.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME PASSE MAINTENANT AU SUD DE LA
DORSALE D’ALTITUDE ET UN TALWEG DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SE RAPPROCHE
PAR LE SUD-OUEST. PAR CONSEQUENT LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT AUGMENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT ET EN RAISON DE LA
BAISSE DU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS 25S, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT COMMENCER A ACQUERIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES HYBRIDES POST-
TROPICALES DIMANCHE, PUIS EXTRATROPICALES A PARTIR DE LUNDI OU MARDI.
JUSQUE MARDI, LES VENTS NE VONT S’ATTENUER QUE LENTEMENT AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION. MERCREDI LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT

ZCZC 570
WTIO30 FMEE 161237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20142015
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 926 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SW: 640 NW: 560
34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SW: 500 NW: 370
48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 300 NW: 220
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/17 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/17 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/18 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/18 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 95.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 100.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+ AND CI=6.5+
THE DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS DEGRADED FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH AN EYE
DIAMETER MORE LARGE THAN 45 NM. 1026Z F15 MW PICTURE SHOWS AN ERODED
EYE-WALL WESTWARD. CONSEQUENTLY, CI IS AT 6.5+ DUE TO DVORAK
CONSTRAINT, BUT INTENSITY OF THE MAXIMUM WIND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED AT
110 KT. BANSI CONTINUES TO MOVE REGULARLY AND RAPIDLY ON A
SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
TONIGHT BANSI IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD.
WITHIN THE NIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
AGAIN SOUTH-EASTWARD.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COME CLOSER TO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR IS
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AND IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENTS NEAR 25S, BANSI IS LIKELY TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL HYBRID SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, THEN EXTRA-TROPICAL FROM
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
UNTIL TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP RAPIDLY.=
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh0515

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/05S_160530sams.jpg

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
160600Z — NEAR 20.0S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 65.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 22.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z — 23.4S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 24.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z — 25.6S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 31.6S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES TC BANSI HAS RE-STRENGTHENED AS THE EYE HAS
CONTRACTED DOWN TO 32NM AS THE CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC AND DEFINED. HOWEVER, A 160442Z AMSU-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE REMAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE OBSERVED IN THE MSI ANIMATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONTRACTION OF THE EYE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, FMEE AND FIMP
WHILE KNES INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE AS WIDELY DIVERGENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESSING ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TC 05S
IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH WILL BE ACCELERATED BY TAU 36
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 05S IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72
WHICH WILL COMPLETE ETT. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoTropical Storm Risk

See:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201505S.html

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA8S / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 151223

WTIO20 FMEE 161228
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI) 926 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 200 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 300
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 345 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 390 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 420 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
23.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2015/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
24.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VIII_S

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