Australia: CYCLONE WARNING for coastal areas of western Top End, including Darwin, Tiwi Islands & Wadeye – – Published 04 Mar 2017 1820z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Low 1

Forecast Track Map (NT)

Forecast Track Map (NT)

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9

Issued at 1:47 am ACST [12:17 am AWST] on Sunday 05 March 2017

Headline:

Cyclone Warning for coastal areas of western Top End, including Darwin, Tiwi Islands and Wadeye.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Wadeye to Point Stuart and Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy.

Watch Zone

Kuri Bay to Wadeye

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Low at 12:30 am ACST [11:00 pm AWST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 10.6 degrees South 131.1 degrees East, estimated to be 105 kilometres north northeast of Milikapiti and 205 kilometres north of Darwin.

Movement: southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low in the Timor Sea is slowly intensifying and may reach tropical cyclone intensity near the Tiwi Islands in the next 6 to 12 hours. The system is expected to continue tracking to the southwest and may pass close to Darwin during Sunday morning or early Sunday afternoon. The cyclone may intensify further during Sunday night or Monday before crossing the north Kimberley coast later on Monday as a Category 2 system.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy in the next 6 to 12 hours, and extend south between Point Stuart and Wadeye (Port Keats), including Darwin, from Sunday morning or early Sunday afternoon

GALES may extend further south between Wadeye (Port Keats) and the NT/WA border, later on Sunday and Monday. GALES may extend west between NT/WA border to Kuri Bay during Monday.

A STORM TIDE between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy may occur as the cyclone centre crosses the coast on Sunday morning. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Point Stuart in the NT and Kuri Bay in WA on Sunday and Monday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN and SQUALLS are likely to continue over the Tiwi and Croker Islands and Cobourg Peninsula this morning, extending to the western Top End later Sunday and to the Kimberley region on Sunday night or Monday.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are possible in squally showers and storms across the western Top End during the next day or two even if the low does not reach cyclone intensity.

Recommended Action:

NTES advises residents from Cape Fourcroy to Croker Island and Point Stuart to Wadeye, including Darwin

– Your emergency kit should now be complete and ready;

– Finalise home shelter preparations, or know now where you will shelter;

– Do not move to shelter until advised by local authorities

Communities under Watch:

– Finalise your emergency kit preparations;

– Clear your premises of potential wind borne missiles;

– Commence home shelter preparations, or decide NOW where you will shelter;

– If your present accommodation is not to code, or you re unsure, you should arrange to shelter with friends, family or in a public shelter or strong building;

– Do not move to shelter until advised by local authorities.

DFES advises residents in the Watch zone between WA/NT border to Kuri Bay in WA:

-You should prepare your home inside and out

-Keep up to date with the development of the cyclone

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am ACST Sunday 05 March [3:30 am AWST Sunday 05 March].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDD20020.txt

Guides and checklists for cyclone safety and preparedness.
Check your local emergency agencies for more information.

More information here: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml

Australia National Weather Warnings Summary

===========================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:10S131E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1328UTC 4 MARCH 2017

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 45 nautical miles of
latitude ten decimal four south (10.4S)
longitude one hundred and thirty one decimal four east (131.4E)
Recent movement : southwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 18
hours.

AREA AFFECTED

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 1200 UTC 05
March.

From 0000 UTC 5 March winds above 34 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre,
extending to 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 05 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 11.3 south 130.4 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 05 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 12.2 south 129.3 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 04 March 2017.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Australia (NT): Ex-Tropical Cyclone ‎LAM 12P has been downgraded to a tropical low. – BoM – Updated 200215 1140z (GMT/UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone LAM 12P

Ex-Cyclone Lam has been downgraded to a tropical low. Heavy rain continues over central Top End. – BoM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

sp201512_sat_anim

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

IDA00041

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

NT

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam

Issued at 4:48 pm CST Friday 20 February 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 67
Track

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Ex-Cyclone Lam has been downgraded to a tropical low. Heavy rain continues over central Top End.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam at 4:30 pm CST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South, 133.8 degrees East , 75 kilometres southwest of Bulman and 90 kilometres northeast of Beswick .
Movement: south southwest at 21 kilometres per hour .

Hazards:

Squally thunderstorms are likely to continue over the Top End.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low-lying areas and cause river rises over the central Top End. Locally very heavy rainfall which could cause flash flooding is possible. A Flood Watch for the Arnhem and Carpentaria Coastal Rivers has been issued.

The STORM TIDE risk for coastal residents between Milingimbi and the Queensland border will continue to ease, however ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES may still occur at the time of local high tides for the next day or two.

No further issues of this product.

Refer to Severe Weather Warning.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents of Elcho Island, Milingimbi, Gapuwiyak and Ramingining in shelter that it is now safe to leave shelter. Shelters will remain open where necessary and residents are advised to limit movement to essential travel only and proceed with care around affected communities.

Damage has occurred to power lines in affected areas and residents should STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES.

The Territory Controller advises that heavy rain has resulted in swollen waterways, creeks and drains and residents should stay away from these areas.

Details:

Time (CST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 5 pm February 20 tropical low 14.1S 133.8E 55
+6hr 11 pm February 20 tropical low 14.6S 133.4E 40
+12hr 5 am February 21 tropical low 15.2S 133.0E 65
+18hr 11 am February 21 tropical low 15.8S 132.4E 85
+24hr 5 pm February 21 tropical low 16.3S 131.8E 110
+36hr 5 am February 22 tropical low 17.3S 130.4E 145
+48hr 5 pm February 22 tropical low 18.4S 129.1E 180
+60hr 5 am February 23 tropical low 19.5S 127.6E 220
+72hr 5 pm February 23 tropical low 20.4S 125.7E 255

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:00 pm CST Friday

Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITYTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 67
Issued at 4:15 pm CST on Friday 20 February 2015

Headline:
Ex-Cyclone Lam has been downgraded to a tropical low. Heavy rain continues over central Top End.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None

Watch Zone
None

Cancelled Zone
The Cyclone WARNING for inland parts of the central Arnhem District has been cancelled.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam at 4:00pm CST
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South 133.8 degrees East, estimated to be 75 kilometres southwest of Bulman and 90 kilometres northeast of Beswick.

Movement: south southwest at 21 kilometres per hour.

Hazards:
Squally thunderstorms are likely to continue over the Top End.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low-lying areas and cause river rises over the central Top End. Locally very heavy rainfall which could cause flash flooding is possible. A Flood Watch for the Arnhem and Carpentaria Coastal Rivers has been issued.

The STORM TIDE risk for coastal residents between Milingimbi and the Queensland border will continue to ease, however ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES may still occur at the time of local high tides for the next day or two.

Refer to Severe Weather Warning.

Recommended Action:
The Territory Controller advises residents of Elcho Island, Milingimbi, Gapuwiyak and Ramingining in shelter that it is now safe to leave shelter. Shelters will remain open where necessary and residents are advised to limit movement to essential travel only and proceed with care around affected communities.

Damage has occurred to power lines in affected areas and residents should STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES.

The Territory Controller advises that heavy rain has resulted in swollen waterways, creeks and drains and residents should stay away from these areas.

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area. Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

Next Advice:
No further advices will be issued for this system.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

JTWC track

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/12P_191732sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
191800Z — NEAR 12.6S 134.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 134.9E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 13.5S 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 14.5S 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 15.8S 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 16.9S 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 134.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM EAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
12P IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONFIRMED BY
RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM GOVE AIRPORT AND WARRUWI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THESE RADARS ALSO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATION STATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERALL LAND INTERACTION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION. TC LAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
SOUTHWESTERN TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
HIGH CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH WEST BASIN. AS THE HIGH
TRACKS TO THE WEST, EXPECT TC 12P TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERRITORY, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING IN THE
VICINITY OF GREGORY NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

Further warnings here:

METAREA X
METAREA XI

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