Japan: Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh 161500Z 20.1N 146.0E, moving NW at 09 knots (JMA) – Published 16 Sept 2015 1616Z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET (JTWC)

Tropical Storm Krovanh

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

Tropical Storm Krovanh

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Japan Meteorological agency

1520

CLICK IMAGE FOR SOURCE

STS 1520 (KROVANH)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 16 September 2015

<Analyses at 16/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N20°05′(20.1°)
E146°00′(146.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 17/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°20′(21.3°)
E144°30′(144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 17/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°35′(22.6°)
E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°35′(25.6°)
E143°20′(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°05′(29.1°)
E145°05′(145.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2015.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/20W_161132sair.jpg

Google Earth Overlay

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
161200Z — NEAR 20.0N 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 146.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z — 21.2N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z — 22.5N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 24.2N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 25.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 29.4N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 33.1N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 36.9N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 145.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

WWJP25 RJTD 161200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 51N 157E
55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 30N 180E 30N 160E 36N 151E 40N 151E 42N
143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 31N 132E ENE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 46N 150E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 42N 172E ENE SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 167E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 37N 120E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 42N 135E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 38N 145E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 62N 153E ESE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 123E TO 28N 126E 30N 129E 30N 131E 31N 132E
32N 137E 33N 143E 32N 150E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1520 KROVANH (1520) 980 HPA AT 19.9N 146.4E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP32 RJTD 161500
WARNING 161500.
WARNING VALID 171500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1520 KROVANH (1520) 980 HPA
AT 20.1N 146.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 21.3N 144.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 22.6N 143.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are more warnings here:  METAREA XI

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