Madagascar/Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Fundi 11S 08/2100Z POSITION nr 33.4S 43.8E, moving SW at 25 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080215 2220z

Tropical Cyclone Fundi 11S

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

RSMC LA REUNION

Bulletin du 08 février à 22H18 locales:
Il n’y a pas d’alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n’est envisagée pour les
prochaines 72 heures.
**************************************************
Nature du système dépressionnaire tropical présent sur le Sud-Ouest de l’Océan Indien.
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNDI.
Pression estimée au centre: 991 HPA.
Position le 08 février à 22 heures locales: 32.3 Sud / 44.2 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 1650 km au secteur: SUD-OUEST.
Déplacement: SUD-SUD-OUEST, à 33 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 09/02 à 22h locales, par 35.8 Sud / 40.6 Est.
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 10/02 à 22h locales, par 36.8 Sud / 40.1 Est.
SE DISSIPANT,
Centre positionné le 11/02 à 22h locales, par 38.8 Sud / 42.7 Est.
————————————————-
Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d’intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus
grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du
phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Prochain bulletin vers 05H locales
Translation (by google):
Bulletin 08 February at 10:18 p.m. local:
There is no current alert Reunion, and no hurricane threat is considered for
next 72 hours.
**************************************************
Nature of tropical low pressure system present on the Southwest Indian Ocean.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FUNDI.
Estimated central pressure: 991 HPA.
Position 8 February at 22 am local time: 32.3 South / 44.2 East.
Distance from Reunion coast: 1650 km sector: SOUTHWEST.
Displacement: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, 33 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 09/02 at 22h local by 35.8 South / 40.6 East.
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 10/02 at 22h local by 36.8 South / 40.1 East.
DISSIPATING,
Center positioned 11/02 at 22h local by 38.8 South / 42.7 East.
————————————————-
Warning: The forecast path and previous intensity should be treated with the most
caution because of their uncertainty. They are for the center position
phenomenon, regardless of its extension.
This newsletter is now complete.
Next bulletin to local 05H
WTIO31 FMEE 081825
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/9/20142015
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (FUNDI)
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/02/2015 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(TRENTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 18 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :44 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 60
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/02/2015 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
24H: 09/02/2015 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION POST-
TROPICALE
36H: 10/02/2015 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2015 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 11/02/2015 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2015 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
SOUS LA DOUBLE INFLUENCE D’UN CISAILLEMENT ASSEZ FORT DE NORD-NORD-
OUEST ET D’INTRUSION D’AIR PLUS SEC DANS LA CIRCULATION DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE PAR LE NORD-OUEST, LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES
APPARAIT, A L’IMAGERIE MSG3, PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE AU NORD DE LA
CONVECTION RESIDUELLE.
CETTE ENTREE D’AIR PLUS SEC ET PLUS FRAIS AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION
MARQUE LE DEBUT DU PROCESSUS D’EXTRA-TROPICALISATION QUI DEVRAIT ETRE
COMPLETE DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.
COMME PREVU, SOUS L’INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE (CF Z700 ET Z850) QUI SE RECONSTRUIT AU SUD-EST, FUNDI A
RECOURBE ET RALENTI SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST.
IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE RALENTIR LUNDI EN SE DIRIGEANT GLOBALEMENT
VERS L’OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
CETTE DORSALE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RETRACTER VERS L’EST MARDI,
FUNDI DEVRAIT ALORS RECOURBER VERS LE SUD ASSEZ LENTEMENT DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS PUIS ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST MERCREDI ET SE DISSIPER
DANS LA NUIT SUIVANTE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION PERTURBEE D’OUEST DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.
WTIO31 FMEE 081,825
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE OF LA REUNION
ANALYSIS REPORT AND FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 12/9/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC ON 02/08/2015:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(THIRTY TWO THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 18 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5 / 3.0 / 0.5 W / H 6
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 40 KT
RAY OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): 44 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANT (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE 280 SW 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE 190 SW 190 NO: 60
7.A / DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 02/09/2015 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 035 KT, POST
TROPICAL
24H: 02/09/2015 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND = 030 KT, POST
TROPICAL
36H: 02/10/2015 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
48H: 02/10/2015 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
60H: 11/02/2015 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL
72H: 11/02/2015 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B TREND LATER:
2.C:
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH OF NORTHWEST NORTH
INTRUSION OF WEST AND DRIER AIR AVERAGE CIRCULATION
LEVEL BY NORTHWEST FLOW LOW LAYERS
APPEARS IN IMAGING MSG3, PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH
RESIDUAL CONVECTION.
THIS ENTRY AIR DRIER AND COOLER IN TRAFFIC
MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE PROCESS OF EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION THAT SHOULD BE
COMPLETE IN MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY.
AS PROVIDED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW AND MIDDLE RIDGE
LEVEL (CF Z700 AND Z850) WHICH IS REBUILT SOUTHEAST, A FUNDI
CURLED AND SLOW TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW MOVING GENERALLY MONDAY
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
BACK THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TO WITHDRAW FROM EASTERN Tuesday,
FUNDI RECURVE SHOULD THEN SOUTH RATHER SLOWLY IN
FIRST TIME THEN ACCELERATE SOUTH-EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DISSIPATE
IN THE NIGHT IN THE WEST OF DISTURBED TRAFFIC
MID-LATITUDE.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1115

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/11S_081732sair.jpg
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 32.8S 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 180 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8S 44.2E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 35.1S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 33.4S 43.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FUNDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM SOUTH
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ELONGATING AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WHICH IS LEAVING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY EXPOSED. TC 11S HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25C. IN ADDITION, DRY AIR IS WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 081634Z SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE
AND CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO COMPLETE
DISSIPATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 081817

WTIO24 FMEE 081817
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2015
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 08/02/2015 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 44.2 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, UP TO 450 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN OUTER PERIPHERAL BANDS, AND ALSO
LOCALLY UP TO 600 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
34.9 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
35.8 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
FUNDI IS PROGRESSIVELY LOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.=

More warnings here:

METAREA VII

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One thought on “Madagascar/Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Fundi 11S 08/2100Z POSITION nr 33.4S 43.8E, moving SW at 25 knots (JTWC) – Updated 080215 2220z

  1. TSR S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 7 Feb, 2015 6:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm FUNDI (11S) currently located near 23.5 S 43.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
    probability for TS is 70% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Toliara (23.4 S, 43.7 E)
    probability for TS is 70% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

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