Mexico: Hurricane Blanca (02E) CAT2 070400Z POSITION nr 19.3N 110.4W, moving NNW 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 070615 0920Z (GMT/UTC)

Hurricane Blanca 02E

(CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Loreto to Mulege

…WEAKENING BLANCA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…NHC

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32
FEET. (JTWC)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Guasave Radar Loop

Guasave Radar Loop

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

083620W5_NL_sm B7

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 070837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

…WEAKENING BLANCA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.8N 110.8W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI…575 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Loreto to Mulege

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 110.8 West. Blanca is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slight increase
in forward speed tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Blanca will approach the southwest coast of the Baja
California peninsula later today and move near or along the coast
tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Blanca is expected to weaken to a tropical storm
tonight before it reaches the southwestern coast of the Baja
California peninsula. Blanca is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression Monday night.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
southern portion of the warning area by late this morning or early
this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm conditions will then spread northward elsewhere
within the warning area tonight and Monday. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the hurricane watch area later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 10 inches over much of Baja California Sur and the southern
half of the state of Baja California, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches over Baja California Sur. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Hurricane 02E (Blanca) Warning #26
Issued at 07/0400Z

ep0215 B7

WTPN32 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
070000Z — NEAR 18.8N 110.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 110.2W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z — 20.4N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 22.4N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z — 24.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 26.4N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z — 29.9N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 110.4W.
HURRICANE 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM EAST OF
SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.//
NNNN

END

TSR logoNE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Jun, 2015 9:00 GMT

Hurricane BLANCA (02E) currently located near 19.8 N 110.8 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_ep_latest_sm2 B7

000
FZPN03 KNHC 070256
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN JUN 07 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUN 07.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON JUN 08.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE JUN 09.

.WARNINGS.
…HURRICANE WARNING…
.HURRICANE BLANCA NEAR 19.2N 110.4W 952 MB AT 0300 UTC JUN 07
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT
GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…140 NM SE QUADRANT…120 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 130 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT…
390 NM SE QUADRANT…210 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 42 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT…240 NM
SE QUADRANT…240 NM SW QUADRANT AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 07N TO 27N
BETWEEN 102W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE BLANCA NEAR 22.4N 111.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE…110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
260 NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 10
TO 15 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 103W AND
127W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BLANCA NEAR 24.6N 112.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BLANCA NEAR 26.4N 113.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 180 N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM E AND 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BLANCA NEAR 29.9N
114.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMNANT LOW OF ANDRES NEAR 18N120W 1007 MB DRIFTING SE. WITHIN
90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND
SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS MERGE WITH BLANCA.

.S OF 00N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 117W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 06N79W TO 10N100W TO 10N120W TO
00N120W…EXCEPT LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07…

.HURRICANE BLANCA…NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 109W
AND 112W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
108W AND 114W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN
88W AND 100W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN
104W AND 114W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
ITCZ FROM 11N130W TO 10N140W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

$$
.FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

3 thoughts on “Mexico: Hurricane Blanca (02E) CAT2 070400Z POSITION nr 19.3N 110.4W, moving NNW 10 knots (NHC) – Updated 070615 0920Z (GMT/UTC)

  1. TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jun, 2015 21:00 GMT

    Tropical Depression BLANCA (02E) currently located near 26.7 N 113.0 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
    probability for TS is 70% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

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