Mauritius/La Reunion: Tropical Storm CHEDZA 06S 181200Z: 22.9 S / 52.3 E, moving SE 8 at knots(RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 180115 1520z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA 06

….. HEAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS. – RSMC LA REUNION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

chedza_sat

RSMC LA REUNION

chedza trajectoire

chedza sat anim

Bulletin Réunion
JOURNEE DU DIMANCHE 18

La Tempête tropicale CHEDZA était située à 16h à 360km a l Ouest-Sud-ouest des côtes réunionnaises et se déplace vers le sud-est à 15km/h.

Vigilance houle cyclonique d’ouest de 2.5m à 3 m sur les cotes Ouest et Sud en cours.

Flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest humide.
NUIT DU DIMANCHE 18 AU LUNDI 19
Les précipitions deviennent éparses sur l Est en début de nuit pour devenir plus fréquentes dans le Nord de l’île approximativement de St Leu à St Benoit en passant par le chef lieu en seconde partie de nuit .

Le vent de secteur Nord reste soutenu plus particulièrement sur les façades Nord-Ouest et Est ( 60 à 70km/h) et dans les hauts de la Réunion avec des rafales pouvant atteindre les 80 à 90 Km/h
LUNDI 19
Pris dans le flux de Nord-Nord-Ouest des averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest et Nord, ailleurs comme dans le sud sauvage le ciel est plus clément avec de belles éclaircies.

Au fil des heures l’instabilité se réactive et les nuages se développent dans l’intérieur.

Ces deniers débordent ensuite sur le sud sauvage où des averses sont alors attendues.

Le vent reste soutenue il souffle principalement sur les côtes Ouest et Est avec des rafales de 70 à 80km/h. Sur les hauteurs exposées, les rafales sont proches de 80 km/h.

La mer est agitée à forte au vent, une vigilance houle cyclonique d’Ouest est en cours de Champs-Borne à la Pointe de la Table en passant par St Leu, houle comprise entre 2. et 2.5 mètres soit 5 m pour les hauteurs maximales . Une houle de Sud-Est de 2.5 à 3 est egalement de mise sur les cotes Est et Sud .
MARDI 20
Poussées par un vent d’Ouest, quelques averses sont possibles en début de journée sur la façade Ouest, ailleurs c’est globalement du soleil. Au fil des heures, les nuages se développent dans

l’intérieure de l’ile et des débordement nuageux concernent le sud de la Réunion ou quelques averses peuvent se produire

Vent d ouest modéré avec des rafales sur les cote Sud-Ouest.

houle de Sud Ouest de 2 a 2.5M de la Pointe de Aigrette à la Pointe de la Table.
MERCREDI 21
Belle journée, la masse d’air s’assèche le soleil l’emporte. les développement nuageux de l apres-midi restent limites.

vent de Sud-Ouest faible à modéré le matin, tournant Sud en fin de journée.

Houle d ouest sud ouest de 2 à 2.5m

Reunion Bulletin
DAY SUNDAY 18

Tropical Storm CHEDZA was located at 16h to al 360km west-south-west coast of Reunion and moves southeast at 15km / h.

Vigilance westerly cyclonic swell from 2.5m to 3m on South West Coasts and in progress.

RSS wet North-West.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY 18 19

The rush become scattered over the East early night in order to become more common in the north of the island approximately St Leu in St Benoit through the main town in the second part of the night.

North wind sector remains particularly strong on Northwest and east facades (60 to 70km / h) and the heights of the Meeting with gusts to 80 to 90 km / h

Monday 19

Caught in the flow of North-West showers are possible early in the day on the west facade and north as elsewhere in the wild south the sky is partly cloudy skies with.

As the hours instability reactivates and clouds develop in the interior.

These funds then spill over into the wild south, where rainfall is then expected.

The wind remains strong it blows mainly on the west and east coast with gusts of 70 to 80 km / h. On the exposed heights, the bursts are near 80 km / h.

The sea is rough with strong wind, vigilance cyclone swell West is being Champs Terminal Point Table via St Leu, swell between 2 and 2.5 m or 5 m for the maximum heights . A Southeast swell from 2.5 to 3 is also placing on the east and south coasts.

Tuesday 20

Driven by a west wind, some rain showers are possible early in the day on the west facade, it is also generally the sun. The hours, the clouds develop in

interior of the island and cloudy infinity concern southern Meeting or a few showers may occur

West of moderate wind with gusts on the South West Coast.

Southwest swell 2 to 2.5M of Pointe Heron Pointe de la Table.

Wednesday 21

Beautiful day, the mass of air dries the sun wins. development of cloudy after noon are limits.

Southwest winds weak to moderate in the morning, turning south in the afternoon.

Houle southwest of West 2 to 2.5m

Bulletin du 18 JANVIER à 16H45 locales:
Il n’y a pas d’alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n’est envisagée pour les
prochaines 72 heures.
**************************************************
Nature des systèmes dépressionnaires tropicaux présents sur le Sud-Ouest de l’Océan Indien.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE EX-BANSI.
Pression estimée au centre: 960 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 25.8 Sud / 78.3 Est.
(vingt cinq degres huit sud et soixante dix-huit degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 2340 km au secteur: EST-SUD-EST.
Déplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 46 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 33.0 Sud / 90.9 Est.
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 38.1 Sud / 104.1 Est.
————————————————-
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHEDZA.
Pression estimée au centre: 982 HPA.
Position le 18 janvier à 16 heures locales: 22.9 Sud / 52.3 Est.
(vingt deux degres neuf sud et cinquante deux degres trois est).
Distance des côtes réunionnaises : 360 km au secteur: OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
Déplacement: SUD-EST, à 15 km/h.
Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 25.3 Sud / 53.1 Est.
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 27.8 Sud / 54.6 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 21/01 à 16h locales, par 30.6 Sud / 57.9 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 22/01 à 16h locales, par 35.4 Sud / 63.1 Est.
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 23/01 à 16h locales, par 45.5 Sud / 78.5 Est.
————————————————-
Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d’intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus
grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du
phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Prochain bulletin vers 23h local

Bulletin January 18 at 4:45 p.m. local:
There is no current alert Reunion, and no hurricane threat is considered for
next 72 hours.
**************************************************
Nature of tropical storm systems present on the southwestern Indian Ocean.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-BANSI.
Estimated central pressure 960 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time 25.8 South / 78.3 East.
(twenty five eight degrees south and seventy-eight degrees is three).
Distance from Reunion coast: 2340 km to the sector: EAST SOUTHEAST.
Displacement: EAST SOUTHEAST, 46 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 33.0 South / 90.9 East.
EXTRATROPICAL,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 38.1 South / 104.1 East.
————————————————-
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CHEDZA.
Estimated central pressure 982 HPA.
Position on 18 January at 16 am local time: 22.9 South / 52.3 East.
(twenty two nine degrees fifty-two degrees south and three east).
Distance from Reunion coast 360 km sector: WEST-SOUTHWEST.
Displacement: SOUTHEAST 15 km / h.
Here are the intensities and positions provided this low pressure system over the next few days:
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 19/01 at 16h local by 25.3 South / 53.1 East.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
Center positioned 20/01 at 16h local by 27.8 South / 54.6 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 21/01 at 16h local by 30.6 South / 57.9 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Center positioned 22/01 at 16h local by 35.4 South / 63.1 East.
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
Centre positioned on 23/01 at 16h local by 45.5 South / 78.5 East.
————————————————-
Warning: The forecast path and previous intensity should be treated with the most
caution because of their uncertainty. They are for the center position
phenomenon, regardless of its extension.
This newsletter is now complete.
Next newsletter to 23h local

ZCZC 453
WTIO30 FMEE 181306

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (CHEDZA)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 52.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 350 SW: 190 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/01/20 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/01/21 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/21 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/22 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/01/23 12 UTC: 45.5 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT PATTERN LOOKS UNCONVENTIONAL AND MENTIONED INTENSITY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK TECHNIQ
UE THAT IS NOT ADAPTED ANY-MORE FOR THIS KIND OF SYSTEM.
DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIG
H PRESSURES.
IN THE WAKE OF CHEZA, IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, OUTER PERIPHERAL BANDS EXIST AND OCCUR LOCALLY H
EAVY RAIN OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS.
CHEDZA KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARDS TOWARDS A TRANSIENT MID
-LEVEL TROUGH.
ON THIS PATH, FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR IS LOW TO MODER
ATE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD ALLOW SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
FROM TUESDAY, THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS LIKELY TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NNNN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

No warning

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA7 / TROPICAL_CYCLONE_WARNING / 181240

WTIO22 FMEE 181240
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/01/2015 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BANSI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 78.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO
400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 180 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 430 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 620 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 710 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
29.1 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
33.0 S / 90.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

There are other warnings at

METAREA VII

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2 thoughts on “Mauritius/La Reunion: Tropical Storm CHEDZA 06S 181200Z: 22.9 S / 52.3 E, moving SE 8 at knots(RSMC La Réunion) – Updated 180115 1520z (GMT/UTC)

  1. S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 16 Jan, 2015 12:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm CHEDZA (06S) currently located near 19.7 S 43.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
    probability for TS is 95% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
    probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
    probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

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