New Caledonia/ Vanuatu: Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna (18P) 091200Z position near 21.4S 168.4E , moving SE 11 kt (RSMC Nadi) – Updated 09 May 2017 1500z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna (18P)

Currently impacting New Caledonia

(= CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 28 FEET.(JTWC)

Scroll down for HURRICANE WARNING for shipping

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone DONNA

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 57 issued 1319 UTC Tuesday 9 May 2017

 

Current and Past Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue)
Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
Destructive Storm Force Winds
Damaging Gale Force Winds
Past Track and Movement
Past Location and Intensity Number
Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks over 72 hours

 

The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone DONNA

Details:

Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 12 pm May 9 3 21.4S 168.4E 165
+6hr 6 pm May 9 3 22.1S 168.7E 195
+12hr 12 am May 10 2 22.9S 169.1E 220
+18hr 6 am May 10 2 23.7S 169.5E 250
+24hr 12 pm May 10 2 24.8S 170.3E 280
+36hr 12 am May 11 2 27.4S 172.2E 340
+48hr 12 pm May 11 2 31.0S 175.1E 400
+60hr 12 am May 12 2 34.6S 178.9E 485
+72hr 12 pm May 12 2 37.5S 177.0W 570

 

Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A27 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 091350 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 168.4E AT
091200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11
KTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER WITH LG SURROUND, YIELDS
DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING,
T4.5/4.5/W2.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 10000 UTC 22.9S 169.1E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 24.8S 170.3E MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 27.4S 172.2E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 31.0S 175.1E MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 091400 UTC.

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 9 May, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DONNA is currently located near 20.1 S 167.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). DONNA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DONNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Noum’ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently
    Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna) Warning #23
Issued at 09/0900z

 

 

WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
090600Z — NEAR 20.1S 167.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 167.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 21.6S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 23.2S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 25.4S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z — 28.4S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RAGGED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 090432Z 91 GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE LOWER ENVELOP OF MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS INTRODUCING STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THUS IMPEDING THE
POLEWARD EXHAUST CHANNEL AND WILL STEADILY INCREASE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC DONNA IS ALSO DRIFTING INTO
COOLER WATERS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
TC DONNA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC
REGION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC DONNA WILL
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Other

Hurricane wind damage

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/animations/images/hurricane_winddamage.swf

Map of Vanuatu with its capital Port Vila, located on its third largest island. (From Wikipedia)

FBC logo

Cyclone Donna intensifies to Category 4

18:41 6 May 2017 (Local Time)

Taken from/By: FBC News
Report by: Akosita Talei

Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna has now intensified to a category four system with central pressure of 965 heta pascal destructive hurricane force winds estimated at about 90 knots close to the centre.

TC Donna was located 700km northwest of Port Vila or 1560km west-northwest of Nadi at mid-day today.

Fiji Meteorology Director Ravindra Kumar says it’s moving west-southwest at about 13km/hr and gradually turning southwards and expected to track towards New Caledonia and Southern Vanuatu.

He adds that although TC Donna still lies in favourable environment for further intensification, it’s expected to encounter unfavourable environmental conditions as it turns and tracks in a southerly direction.

He says Fiji is not directly threatened by TC Donna, however associated strong winds will affect Fiji waters and a strong wind warning remains in force for all Fiji waters.

Expect rough seas with east to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, gusting to 30 knots.

Strong wind warning remains in force for all Fiji waters and Occasional showers expected. Isolated heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING 032 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 091308 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4 SOUTH
168.4 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.4S 168.4E AT 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.9S 169.1E AT 10000 UTC
AND NEAR 24.8S 168.5E AT 101200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 053.

END

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone PAM 17P CAT3 151500Z POSITION nr 34.2S 178.8E, moving SE at 20 Kts (JTWC) – Updated 150315 1448z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 17P (PAM)

(Equivalent of a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 40 FEET – JTWC

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

sp201517_sat_anim Pam 15

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

New Zealand

Issued at 12:54am Monday 16 Mar 2015 (Local time)

UPDATE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM

At midnight Sunday tropical cyclone Pam was situated about 450km to the northeast of Auckland and 450km to the north of East Cape. It has already brought 70mm or rain to parts of Gisborne and 140 to 150 kilometer an hour wind gusts to exposed parts of Auckland and Northland.

It is expected to lie about 150km east of East Cape (northern Gisborne)by midday Monday,then move away from the New Zealand coastline towards the Chatham Islands.Strong southeast winds and rain are expected over much of the North Island today, along with extremely large seas about the east coast.Wind gusts of 160 km/h or more are possible about the eastern Bay of Plenty and northern parts of Gisborne.Winds of this strength are likely to cause damage to trees and powerlines and could lift roofs and make for hazardous driving conditions.A burst of heavy rain accompanies these winds, with 180-220 mm possible about the Gisborne ranges.Please refer to the latest severe weather warnings and watches issued by MetService for more information. The total combined waves (sea and swell)generated by cyclone Pam are expected to rise to 7-8m around the northern New Zealand coastline and even up to 9m around the northern Gisborne coast.
For any further information go to: http://www.metservice.com/national/home
The next update to this blog will be around midnight Sunday 15 March.
For further information please contact:
Duty Meteorologist 044700815
+++++++++++++

Cyclone Pam – Latest update 1am Monday 16th March

HORDUR THORDARSON, METSERVICE METEOROLOGIST

Sunday 16 March 2015 1:00am

Category 3 Cyclone Pam was lying near 34S 178.5E at midnight, or about 450 kilometres northeast of Auckland and 450 kilometres north of East Cape on a track to the south-southeast as shown on the image below.

Track

The effects of Cyclone Pam are already being felt in some areas. A wind gust to 150 kilometres per hour was observed near Kaeo in Northland and a gust of 144 kilometres an hour was observed at Channel Island between Coromandel Peninsula and Great Barrier Island this evening. Rain is becoming heavy in Gisborne and and 70mm have already accumulated in some areas there.

Rain radar at 11pm Sunday
Rain radar at 11pm Sunday

Pam is expected to be reclassified early this morning and will from then on be considered an extra tropical cyclone.

Infra red image at 11pm Sunday
Infra red image at 11pm Sunday

Why will it be re classified? The reason for this is that the nature of the system changes. A tropical cyclone derives its energy from latent heat released in strong deep convection. Warm moist air over a warm sea surface rises, condenses, warms further and continues to rise. This is the energy that intensifies and maintains a tropical cyclone. Once the cyclone moves south out of the tropics and over cooler waters this energy source decreases. Normally this will lead to a slow weakening of the system.

There is however a new energy source that becomes available to the storm as it moves out of the tropics. This energy comes from the difference between hot and cold air. If there is a large temperature difference over a relatively short distance this can be a powerful source of energy that re-energises the storm as it moves out of the tropics.

The main differences between a tropical cyclone and an extra tropical cyclone are:

Tropical Cyclone                                                Extra tropical cyclone

No fronts                                                             Fronts

Winds max close the centre                           Wind maximum well away front the centre

Driven by latent heat release                         Strong temperature gradients

Reclassification does not mean that “Pam” no longer poses any threat. Extremely strong wind gusts, heavy rain and phenomenal waves are still expected, and details can be found in http://www.metservice.com/warnings/home as well as in http://blog.metservice.com/ or http://www.metservice.com/national/home

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1715 pam 15

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/17P_151132sair.jpg

WTPS31 PGTW 151500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
151200Z — NEAR 33.3S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3S 178.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z — 37.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 34.2S 178.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND LIMITED CORE CONVECTION, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THIS IS CONFIRMED
WITH A 151246Z GPM IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM TAKING ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AS IT BECOMES FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON THE
TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 40 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Mar, 2015 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Cyclone PAM (17P) currently located near 33.3 S 178.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Zealand
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201517P pam 15

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

HURRICANE WARNING

ZCZC 387
WHNZ41 NZKL 150626
HURRICANE WARNING 246
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREAS: SUBTROPIC AND FORTIES
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM 950HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0 SOUTH 177.
4 EAST AT 150600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 32.0S 177.4E AT 150600 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 70
KNOTS BY 151800 UTC AND THEN EASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 160600 UTC.
PHENOMENAL SEA EASING TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 320 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 280 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH VERY ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 35.6S 179.9E AT 151800 UTC
AND NEAR 38.4S 177.6W AT 160600 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 243.

NNNN

.Further warnings here:

METAREA X

METAREA XIV

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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.