Tropical Cyclone OMA 15P
New Caledonia and Vanuatu beware!
OMA expected to become a storm equivalent to Category 1 on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by 18 Feb, 12:00 UTC
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 26 FEET – JTWC
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
Tropical Cyclone 15P (Oma) Warning #23
Issued at 17/1500Z
WTPS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z — NEAR 16.3S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 164.3E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z — 17.2S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z — 18.4S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z — 19.8S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z — 20.9S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z — 22.9S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 25.8S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 30.3S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC OMA HAS, FOR THE MOST PART, MAINTAINED ITS EXPANSIVE
FEEDER BANDS WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A
LARGE, RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE LLC
IN THE 171034Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28
CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 120, TC OMA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER IS ECMWF THAT
TRACKS THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN
RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone OMA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 100 issued 1314 UTC Sunday 17 February 2019
| Current and Past Cyclone Details | Forecast Cyclone Details (at 24, 48 and 72 hours from issue) |
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The forecast path shown above is the Nadi’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
Name: Tropical Cyclone OMA
Details:
| Time (UTC) | Intensity Category | Latitude (decimal deg.) |
Longitude (decimal deg.) |
Estimated Position Accuracy (km) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0hr | 12 pm February 17 | 2 | 16.1S | 164.2E | 185 |
| +6hr | 6 pm February 17 | 2 | 16.6S | 164.1E | 215 |
| +12hr | 12 am February 18 | 2 | 17.2S | 163.9E | 240 |
| +18hr | 6 am February 18 | 2 | 17.9S | 163.7E | 270 |
| +24hr | 12 pm February 18 | 2 | 18.5S | 163.4E | 295 |
| +36hr | 12 am February 19 | 2 | 19.8S | 162.8E | 355 |
| +48hr | 12 pm February 19 | 2 | 20.9S | 162.4E | 415 |
| +60hr | 12 am February 20 | 1 | 21.9S | 162.0E | 505 |
| +72hr | 12 pm February 20 | 1 | 22.9S | 161.8E | 590 |
Fiji time is UTC +12 hours.
For example, 0000 UTC Saturday is 1200 Saturday Fiji time.
For example, 1800 UTC Saturday is 0600 Sunday Fiji time.
Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa
The next TC Threat Track Map is scheduled to be issued within six hours.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A24 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 171343 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 984HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 164.2E AT 171200 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OMA IN THE LAST 3-6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN
A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE.
SYSTEM REMAIN SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS
DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, YIELDING T3.0/4.0/W0.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 17.2S 163.9E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 18.5S 163.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 19.8S 162.8E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 20.9S 162.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 172000 UTC.
TROPICAL STORM RISK (TSR)
SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 17 Feb, 2019 6:00 GMT
Tropical Storm OMA is currently located near 16.1 S 164.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). OMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Caledonia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vanuatu
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taktak (14.9 S, 166.6 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
Luganville (15.5 S, 167.2 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Norsup (16.0 S, 167.4 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Norfolk Island
probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Onetar (14.3 S, 167.4 E)
probability for TS is 45% currently
Vipaka (13.1 S, 166.6 E)
probability for TS is 40% currently
Noum’ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Foreas (13.9 S, 167.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% currently
Kingston (29.1 S, 168.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Current probability of tropical storm winds
Other
(Image: @RoshinRowjee)
MARITIME/SHIPPING
STORM WARNING 100 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 171309 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 984HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1 SOUTH 164.2
EAST AT 171200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 16.1S 164.2E at 171200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY
181200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.2S 163.9E AT 180000 UTC
AND NEAR 18.5S 163.4E AT 181200 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 099.
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