US(TX/LA/MS/TN): Tropical Depression Harvey 31/0300Z update (NHC FL) – Updated 31 Aug 2017 0920z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana.

…..catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week

 

at201709_5day TD HARVEY WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

at201709_sat TD HARVEY WUND

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

030124_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind TD HARVEY

avn_lalo-animated TD HARVEY

030124WPCQPF_sm rain 31

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana
tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern
Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee
Valley region on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The
expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into
western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river
and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional
tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across
northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts
of Tennessee.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
at hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

=============================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 31METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 300850

WTNT24 KNHC 310254
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 92.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

 

=============================================================================

000
FZNT24 KNHC 310857
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-312100-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS…Tropical Depression Harvey is inland over Louisiana.
As Harvey moves farther inland, a ridge will slowly build back
across the Gulf through the remainder of the week before a trough
develops over the western Gulf this weekend. An area of low pressure
could form along this trough over the southwestern Gulf by the
weekend.

$$

GMZ011-312100-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S. Seas
2 ft or less.
.FRI…S winds less than 5 kt, shifting to NE to E. Seas 2 ft or
less.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to 3 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ013-312100-
N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or
less.
.FRI NIGHT…SW winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to NE to E late. Seas
2 ft or less.
.SAT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to
3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

GMZ015-312100-
NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and S to SW 10 to 15 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI…S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…W winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S late. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SAT…SE winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

$$

GMZ017-312100-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ019-312100-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt S of 24N, and E to SE 5 to 10 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.FRI…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, building to
3 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt S of 24N, and E 5 to 10 kt
elsewhere. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

$$

GMZ021-312100-
E Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI…SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT…SE winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to E. Seas 3 ft,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SAT…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

GMZ023-312100-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft
or less.
.TONIGHT…E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.FRI…NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…N winds 5 to 10 kt S of 21N W of 95W, and NE to E
10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to NW 5 to 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT…N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to W to NW in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON…SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to E to SE
late. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

GMZ025-312100-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
457 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY…E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI…E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning,
subsiding to 2 ft or less. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.FRI NIGHT…NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less,
building to 3 to 4 ft late. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.SAT…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT…E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening,
subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.SUN…SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT…E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON…E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT…NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

Forecaster GR

=============================================================================

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US: DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA (NHCAdv16) – 27 June 2012 1010 GMT/UTC

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(Image: NHC NOAA)
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
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NWS Tallahasee, FL Local Doppler Radars

Fort Rucker, AL (KEOX)
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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Ft. Rucker, AL.  Click on the image for additional options.�E��E�

Moody AFB, GA (KVAX)
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Eglin AFB, FL (KEVX)
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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar at Eglin AFB, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

Tallahassee, FL (KTLH)
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The latest base reflectivity image from the NWS Doppler radar that serves Tallahassee, FL.  Click on the image for additional options.

POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY (CLICK HERE FOR JAX BRIEFING)…

BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 27 Jun, 2012 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression DEBBY (AL04) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

N Atlántico: Alerta de tormenta emitido al 27 de junio 2012 09:00 GMT

Tropical DEBBY Depresión (AL04) se prevé que la huelga de la tierra a la probabilidad siguiente (s) en el plazo de entrega determinado (s):
País alerta amarilla (s) o de la Provincia (s)
los Estados Unidos
probabilidad de TS es del 90% en la actualidad
Amarillo Ciudad Alerta (s) y Ciudad (s)
Orlando (29,0 N, 81,5 W)
probabilidad de TS es del 55% en la actualidad

Nótese que
Alerta amarilla (elevada) es CAT 1 o superior a entre 10% y 30% de probabilidad, o TS anteriormente probabilidad del 50%.
CAT 1 significa que vientos huracanados de fuerza de por lo menos 74 mph, 119 km / ho 64 nudos 1-min sostenida.
TS significa vientos fuerza de tormenta tropical de al menos 39 mph, 63 km / ho 34 nudos 1-min sostenida.

Para información de los pronósticos gráfica y otros detalles por favor visite http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

000
WTNT34 KNHC 270831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

…DEBBY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.6N 81.0W
ABOUT 25 MI…45 KM SE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH…17
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…DEBBY
SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM FLORIDA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE…ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE LINGERING
RAIN BANDS…MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTCA44 TJSJ 270931
TCPSP4

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DEBBY ADVERTENCIA  NUMERO  16
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL042012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 DE JUNIO DE 2012

…DEBBY MENOS ORGANIZADA MIENTRAS ALCANZA LA COSTA ESTE DEL NORTE
CENTRAL DE FLORIDA…

RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMACION
————————————————–
LOCALIZACION…29.6 NORTE 81.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 25 MI…45 KM AL SURESTE DE ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL…ESTE NORESTE O 75 GRADOS A 10 MPH…17 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA…998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
——————–
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.

DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
—————————————————
A LAS 5:00 AM EDT…0900 UTC…EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
DEBBY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.6 NORTE…LONGITUD
81.0 OESTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A
CERCA DE 10 MPH…17 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA…DEBBY DEBERA ALEJARSE
GRADUALMENTE DE FLORIDA HOY.

VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH…55 KM/H…CON
RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN SU INTENSIDAD
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MB…29.47 PULGADAS.

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
————————-
MAREJADA CICLONICA…NIVELES ALTOS DE AGUA EN AREAS DONDE LAS AGUAS
NORMALMENTE FLUYEN SOBRE LA COSTA A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL
SUROESTE Y NORESTE DE FLORIDA DEBEN DISMINUIR MAS TARDE HOY. PARA
INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA…FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.

LLUVIA…SE ESPERA QUE LAS LLUVIAS ASOCIADAS A DEBBY CONTINUEN
DISMINUYENDO A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY.
CANTIDADES AISLADAS ADICIONALES DE HASTA UNA PULGADA SON POSIBLES EN
LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE DEBBY…MAYORMENTE SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA.

PROXIMAS ADVERTENCIAS
———————
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA…1100 AM EDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADORES AVILA

000
WTNT44 KNHC 270832
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

SATELLITE…RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF DEBBY IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING ELONGATED. THE CENTER
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION…BUT THE AREA
OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 075
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS IN A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
FLORIDA ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL
PROBABLY 30 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH…AND IN FACT…BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST
WEAKENING IN THE 00 UTC RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS DEBBY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 3
DAYS.

DEBBY IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH…AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR
NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 29.6N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH…OVER WATER
12H  27/1800Z 30.0N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  28/0600Z 30.5N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  28/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  29/0600Z 32.0N  70.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  30/0600Z 35.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  01/0600Z 38.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 45.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT44 TJSJ 270832
TCDAT4

DEBBY DEPRESION TROPICAL NÚMERO 16 DE DEBATE
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 27 de junio 2012

Las observaciones de radar … Y SATÉLITE superficie indica que el
CIRCULACIÓN DE DEBBY es cada vez más alargada. EL CENTRO
Es difícil de localizar Dada la falta de organización … PERO LA ZONA
DE PRESION MINIMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE O ESTE-075
GRADOS a 9 nudos en el noreste de la Florida Central. LA MAYORÍA DE LAS PROFUNDIDADES
CONVECCIÓN está en una banda tipo frontal AMPLIACIÓN DEL NORESTE
A TRAVES DE LA FLORIDA Atlántico adyacente. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SON TODAVÍA
Probablemente 30 nudos con una TURBONADAS PRINCIPALMENTE sobre el agua.

NINGUNA DE LAS DIRECTRICES DE INTENSIDAD muestran un aumento significativo EN
Fuerza … Y, de hecho … Tanto el modelo GFS y ECMWF dan a entender
Debilitamiento en el RUN 00 UTC. El pronóstico oficial DEBBY MANTIENE COMO
DEPRESION TROPICAL Y PERMITE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE más allá de 3
DÍAS.

DEBBY está incrustado en flujo del oeste dentro de la base A MEDIADOS DE LA LATITUD
A TRAVÉS DE … y debe seguir para avanzar en la ESTE-NORESTE O
NORESTE DE LO INDICADO POR LOS MODELOS GLOBALES. LA PREVISIÓN OFICIAL
En medio de la GFS y ECMWF MODELOS.

POSICIONES DE PREVISIÓN Y Vientos máximos

INIT 29.6N 81.0W 27/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH … SOBRE EL AGUA
12H 30.0N 79.4W 27/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30.5N 76.5W 28/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31.0N 73.0W 28/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 32.0N 70.5W 29/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 35.0N 66.5W 30/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 38.0N 62.0W 01/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 45.5N 50.0W 02/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

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PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

A man has been captured on film using a wind created by tropical storm Debby to leap over an entire pier at Redington Beach, Florida, according to the Telegraph.

The gale-force winds, which have been measuring up to 50 miles per hour, lift him totally clear of the structure.

The video was taken by onlooker Jay Gartner, who uploaded it onto YouTube on Sunday, and it has since been viewed over 300,000 times. – AOL