East Pacific/ Mexico: Tropical Storm Dora (04E) 25/1500Z nr 15.0N 101.8W, moving WNW 10 kt (NHC FL) – Published 25 Jun 2017 1608z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Dora 04E

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET (JTWC)

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 251432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

…DORA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…
…HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.0N 101.8W
ABOUT 180 MI…295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI…520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.8 West. Dora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to move parallel
to but remain offshore of the coast of Mexico.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Dora could become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches along coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan
through Monday.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 04E (Dora) Warning #02
Issued at 25/1000Z

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z — NEAR 14.5N 100.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 100.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z — 15.5N 102.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z — 16.4N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z — 17.5N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z — 18.4N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 19.5N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 20.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 20.0N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 101.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1422 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND
261000Z.//
NNNN

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
FZPN03 KNHC 251554
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUN 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 27.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 15.0N 101.8W 1001 MB AT 1500 UTC JUN
25 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM N
SEMICIRCLE…30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 16.8N 105.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT…40 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DORA NEAR 18.6N 108.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS…70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER…WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 19.6N 111.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 20.3N 115.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DORA NEAR 20.0N
118.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 24N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S E OF 106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN JUN 25…

.TROPICAL STORM DORA…NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF DORA. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W
AND 105W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 81W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N84W TO 12N94W, IT THEN RESUMES AT 10N107W
TO 07N131W. ITCZ FROM 07N131W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 126W AND 129W.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

MEXICO: Tropical Storm ELIDA (05E) 302100Z 17.4N 104.2W, moving WNW nr 3 knots. TS Warning LAZARO CARDENAS to CABO CORRIENTES (NHC) – Updated 300614 2105z

Tropical Storm ELIDA

…TROPICAL STORM ELIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES….(NHC)

(Image: wunderground.com) E Pacific Sea Surface Temp (Click image for source)

 

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

MEXICO

https://i0.wp.com/smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/cabos/rad-cabo.jpg

Aviso de Tiempo Severo bg20x2 bg2 h Aviso Ciclón: Pacífico Atlántico

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 301917
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

CORRECTED CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS HEADER

…TROPICAL STORM ELIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…17.3N 104.2W
ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES
CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM PDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST. ELIDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK
…THE CENTER OF ELIDA SHOULD BE NEAR BUT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

RAINFALL…ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
COLIMA AND MICHOACAN…AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF JALISCO.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER UNKNOWN

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151Z JUN 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
301200Z — NEAR 17.1N 103.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 103.4W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z — 17.9N 104.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 18.2N 104.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z — 18.1N 104.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z — 17.9N 105.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z — 17.8N 105.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z — 17.6N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 17.6N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 103.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND
011600Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A. JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN 300151Z JUN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
300200). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TSR NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jun, 2014 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ELIDA (05E) currently located near 17.4 N 104.2 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

MARITIME

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301510
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N…EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERYTHROUGH
1500 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 114.0W OR ABOUT 445
NM…765 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 1500
UTC MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. DOUGLAS HAS NOT INTENSIFIED…BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 112W-117W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 17.3N 103.9W OR ABOUT 120 MILES…195
KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THE SAME INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF
ELIDA. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERSMIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 16N94W TO 6N95W MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
…INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 6N85W TO 5N100W THEN
RESUMES W OF T.S. DOUGLAS FROM 12N117W TO 8N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N E OF 81W TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 133W-136W.

…DISCUSSION…

AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES MUCH OF THE N
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO
BEYOND 32N118W AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 20N140W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE COVERING MOST OF THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 120W AND N OF
25N E OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 14N128W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT…ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N108W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. DOUGLAS AND T.S. XXX. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N E OF 81W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 17N E OF 125. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL WATERS TODAY…BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT S OF 04N
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. GAP WINDS…

$$
DGS

 

WTPZ25 KNHC 302045
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT……. 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 104.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.6N 104.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N 105.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 104.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 105.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 104.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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