West Pacific/ Guam /Marianas: Tropical Disturbance (#97W): High chance of a significant Tropical #Cyclone within next 24 hrs (JTWC 25/0200Z) – Published 25 Jun 2017 1550z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Disturbance (Invest  97W)

….has a high chance of becoming a significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours (JTWC 25/0200Z)

Guam and Marianas Beware!

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

WTPN21 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 146.2E TO 15.8N 141.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 145.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY
65 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER. A 242032Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260200Z.//
NNNN

===============================================================================

000
WWMY80 PGUM 251617 CCA
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement…Corrected
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1137 PM ChST Sun Jun 25 2017

GUZ001>004-260300-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
1137 PM ChST Sun Jun 25 2017

…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS TONIGHT…

A developing tropical disturbance near Rota remains the subject
of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center. This disturbance will continue to produce scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms, occasional heavy rain and gusty
winds tonight as it continues westward.

If you are planning any outdoor activities through Monday evening,
be aware of current conditions and be prepared to move indoors,
if necessary. Mariners operating small vessels should remain in
port. Beach goers and swimmers need to stay close to shore and
move indoors if lightning is present.

Residents should stay informed on the latest statements and
advisories issued by the National Weather Service and local
emergency management offices. Products issued by the National
Weather Service are posted on the WFO Guam web page at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/.

$$

Kleeschulte

Guam Infrared Color (Himawari 8)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
WHGM70 PGUM 250354
MWWGUM

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
154 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

PMZ152>154-252000-
/O.NEW.PGUM.SI.Y.0004.170625T0354Z-170625T2000Z/
ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
154 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST
MONDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST MONDAY.

EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL
BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS…ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS…SHOULD AVOID SAILING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

STANKO

060
FZMY70 PGUM 250715
MWSMY

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
515 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

PMZ151>154-252000-
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
515 PM CHST SUN JUN 25 2017

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
TO THE MARIANAS WATERS TONIGHT. SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS, OR
BELOW DECK FOR MARINERS AWAY FROM LAND. VISIBILITES WILL BE BELOW
1 NAUTICAL MILE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REMAIN ALERT
FOR FURTHER BULLETINS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN,
GUAM.

$$

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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Micronesia/Micronesia/ Marianas/ Guam: Tropical Storm 1403 FAXAI 021200Z near 9.3N 148.8E, Almost stationary (JMA) – Updated 020314 1320

Tropical Storm 1403 (FAXAI) (JMA)

Tropical Storm Three (3W) (JTWC)

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK (NWS GUAM)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

xx

National Weather Service Forecast OfficeWFO Guam

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/images/guam/errorTrack1.jpg

WTPQ31 PGUM 280910
TCPPQ1

WTPQ31 PGUM 020947
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032014
800 PM CHST SUN MAR 2 2014

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST0900 UTCINFORMATION

LOCATION9.6N 148.3E

ABOUT 115 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULUL
ABOUT 285 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENTWEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
-

AT 700 PM CHST0900 UTCTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAXAI WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
148.3 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THE TROPICAL
STORM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AND ACCELERATE IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TUESDAY. FAXAI IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
GUAM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND SAIPAN LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURSPOSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER UP TO 70 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING.

$$

STANKO

Guam Alerts
Micronesian Alerts

Japan Meteorological agency

1403
Tropical cyclones do not necessarily move along the lines
connecting the centers of probability circles.
Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km

TS 1403 (FAXAI)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 2 March 2014

<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N920′(9.3)
E14850′(148.8)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N280km(150NM)
S170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N1130′(11.5)
E14905′(149.1)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N1630′(16.5)
E15005′(150.1)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)
<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N2055′(20.9)
E15255′(152.9)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0314.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03W_020532sams.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
020600Z NEAR 9.4N 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 148.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z 10.1N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z 11.2N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z 13.0N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z 15.7N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z 21.1N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z 25.5N 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 148.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z
AND 030900Z.//
NNNN

Other Reports

Tropical Storm Faxai, Westpacwx Sunday Update

MARITIME

766
WHGM70 PGUM 020552
MWWGUM

URGENT MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
352 PM CHST SUN MAR 2 2014

PMZ151>154-022100-
/O.EXT.PGUM.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-140304T2000Z/
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
352 PM CHST SUN MAR 2 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST
WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARIANAS WATERS.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO
14 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS MAY DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

INEXPERIENCED MARINERSESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELSSHOULD AVOID BOATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. IF TRAVEL BY
BOAT IS NECESSARYEXERCISE CAUTIONESPECIALLY NEAR REEF LINES
AND WHEN ENTERING OR LEAVING HARBORS AND INLETS.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

*** High Surf Warning or Advisory (Marianas) ***

*** High Surf Advisory (Micronesia) ***

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1200

WTJP21 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1403 FAXAI (1403) 994 HPA
AT 09.3N 148.8E CAROLINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 11.5N 149.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 16.5N 150.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 20.9N 152.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your countrys official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.