Hawaii/ Central Pacific: Tropical Storm Fernanda (06E) 202100Z near 18.2N 140.4W, moving W 11 knots (NHC) – Updated 20 Jul 2017 2120z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Fernanda (06E)

…FERNANDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC….(NHC)

Hawaii be aware!

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET (JTWC)

National Hurricane Center (FL)

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 202035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

…FERNANDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.2N 140.4W
ABOUT 965 MI…1555 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 140.4 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a general motion
toward the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Fernanda is expected to become a tropical depression
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO
header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Storm 06E (Fernanda) Warning #35
Issued at 20/1600Z

 

 

WTPN32 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 035
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
201200Z — NEAR 18.1N 138.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 138.7W

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z — 18.6N 140.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z — 19.0N 142.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z — 19.5N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z — 20.1N 145.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z — 21.5N 149.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 22.5N 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 24.0N 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 139.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 936 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MARITIME/SHIPPING

(Image: RSMC Miami)


METAREA12 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 2034

WTPZ21 KNHC 202034 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062017
2100 UTC THU JUL 20 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 139.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 141.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.0N 143.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.6N 145.4W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.2N 147.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 156.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 140.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

 

================================================================================

FZPN02 KWBC 201725
HSFEPI

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1745 UTC THU JUL 20 2017

CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 22.

.WARNINGS.

…GALE WARNING…
.FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 177W AND 175E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 180W AND 170E WINDS 25
TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN
169E AND 178W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 30N168E 999 MB. FROM 30N TO 34N
BETWEEN 164E AND 172E WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN 163E AND 172E WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 53.92N 168.03W IS IN A STATE OF UNREST.
MARINERS TRAVELING IN THE VICINITY OF BOGOSLOF VOLCANO ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION. IF MARINERS ENCOUNTER ANY VOLCANIC
ASH…REPORT THE OBSERVATION TO THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER BY
CALLING 301-683-1520.

.FROM 33N TO 38N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 40N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 32N TO 43N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.LOW 55N149W 1002 MB DRIFTING SE. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 57N140W TO
56N146W TO 50N141W TO 47N140W TO 44N142W. BETWEEN 120 NM AND 300
NM N QUADRANT…ALSO WITHIN 180 NM NE AND E OF FRONT…AND FROM
43N TO 48N BETWEEN 155W AND 165W…ALSO FROM 53N TO 58N BETWEEN
161W AND 166W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW FORMED NEAR
51N144W 1001 MB. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 53N157W TO 56N150W TO
56N144W TO 53N140W TO 50N133W TO 47NB131W. WITHIN 180 NM NW…N
AND NE OF FRONT…ALSO FROM 41N TO 50N BETWEEN 136W AND 147W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N141W 1002 MB. FROM 49N TO 54N BETWEEN
133W AND 146W…AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM 55N147W TO
55N134W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.S OF 33N W OF 165E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MOVED W OF AREA.

.FROM 45N TO 50N BETWEEN 175W AND 175E WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 47N164W 1012 MB. FROM 42N TO 45N
BETWEEN 160W AND 173W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 46N155W 1011 MB. FORECAST CONDITIONS
DIMINISHED.

.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 40N TO 48N
BETWEEN 142W AND 164W AND W OF A LINE FROM 61N170W TO 50N179W TO
46N170W TO 44N170W TO 40N176W TO 37N160E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 44N BETWEEN 155W AND
164W…ALSO FROM 51N TO 54N BETWEEN 153W AND 158W…AND W OF A
LINE FROM 60N175W TO 40N174E TO 38N160E…ALSO FROM 40N TO 43N
BETWEEN 175W AND 174E…ALSO FROM 51N TO 54N BETWEEN 153W AND
158W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 40N TO 45N BETWEEN 142W AND
156W…ALSO FROM 50N TO 53N BETWEEN 152W AND 159E…AND W OF A
LINE FROM 58N180W TO 46N176E TO 41N163E.

.HIGH 41N180W 1033 MB MOVING W 10 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 42N173E 1030 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 43N169E 1027 MB.

.HIGH 58N179W 1018 MB MOVING SW 10 KT…THEN TURNING E.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 56N178E 1023 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 53N176W 1023 MB.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N136W 1025 MB.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 34N137W 1025 MB.

.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU JUL 20.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI JUL 21.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT JUL 22.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 14.1N 115.4W 1003 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL
20 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 14.7N 118.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE…60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120NM NW AND 90 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND
90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GREG NEAR 15.4N 122.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE…60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 90 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW AND
120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GREG NEAR 16.0N 127.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 16.3N 131.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 17.0N 135.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 18.2N 139.2W 995 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUL 20 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE
QUADRANT…60 NM SE QUADRANT…50 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE…120
NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA W OF LINE
FROM 26N134W TO 19N134W TO 13N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA W OF AREA NEAR 19.0N
142.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE…50 NM NE QUADRANT
AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE
AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM 17N TO 21N W OF 139W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA W OF LINE FROM 25N137W TO
16N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA W OF AREA
NEAR 20.1N 145.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 21.5N
149.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 22.5N
154.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 24.0N
160.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 13.4N 123.1W 1009 MB AT 1500
UTC JUL 20 MOVING WSW OR 245 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 180NM SE AND 60 NM NW
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 12.1N 124.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 150 NM SE AND
120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EIGHT-E NEAR 11.6N
125.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN 150 NM
SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N104W 1010 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 450 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
13N109W 1009 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES…POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE…NEAR
14N112W 1008 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF
LOW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO
15N95.5W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N95W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC…N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 86.5W AND 89W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN E AND SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 89W AND
92W…INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO…WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
8 FT IN E AND SW SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 88.5W…INCLUDING THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO…NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC THU JUL 20…

.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG NE
QUADRANT WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM GREG…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE CENTER…EXCEPT NW QUADRANT.

.TROPICAL WAVE 06N TO 19N ALONG 104W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1010
MB NEAR 12N104W…SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO
12N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH…
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB
NEAR 07N86W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 11N104W. SCATTERED TO
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 87W
AND 94W.

.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC JUL 20 2017.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 21 2017.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC JUL 22 2017.

.WARNINGS.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA JUST E OF AREA 18.2N 139.2W AT 20/1500Z
MOVING W 08 KT. MAX WINDS 55 KT G 65 KT. WINDS 34 KT OR GREATER
WITHIN 70 NM NW QUADRANT…50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT…90 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT ELSEWHERE E OF LINE 25N145W 22N150W 16N147W 13N142W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA 19.0N 142.4W. MAX
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. WINDS 34 KT OR GREATER WITHIN 50 NM NE
QUADRANT…40 NM NW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…150 NM SW QUADRANT…210 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BOUNDED BY 26N140W 14N140W 12N145W
21N153W 24N152W 26N140W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 20.1N 145.8W.
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT…90 NM
S SEMICIRCLE…150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BOUNDED BY
25N145W 23N140W 18N145W 16N155W 22N153W 25N145W.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 21.5N 149.5W.
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.

.EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR OUTLOOK POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 22.5 154.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.
.120 HOUR OUTLOOK POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW 24.0N 160.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT G 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

…GALE WARNING…
.LOW 24N178E 1008 MB MOVING NNW 15 KT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
20N175E 19S171E. WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER N
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 720 NM OF CENTER N
SEMICIRCLE…120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT WITHIN 360 N
OF CENTER N AND NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE BOUNDED
BY 30N160E 30N173W 24N176W 21N172E 28N160E 30N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS FROM 30N TO 22N BETWEEN 175E AND 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 28N174E 1003 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW TO
25N175E. WINDS 30 TO 45 KT WITHIN 60 NM AND 420 NM OF CENTER NE
QUADRANT…AND 60 NM AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS 520 NM NW SEMICIRCLE…240 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM
OF CENTER N SEMICIRCLE…120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
ELSEWHERE BOUNDED BY 30N160E 30N175W 24N177E 20N170E 24N160E
30N160E.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 30N169E 999 MB. WINDS 30 TO 45 KT WITHIN
150 NM OF CENTER. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF
CENTER. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER S SEMICIRCLE.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE BOUNDED BY 30N165E 30N179W 25N173E
25N165E 30N165E.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROUGH 08N140W 06N145W.

.ITCZ 06N145W 05N160W 08N171W 05N174E 04N160E. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF ITCZ W OF 171W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ E OF 171W.

.WINDS NE 20 TO 30 KT SE OF LINE 28N140W 20N150W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS NE TO E 20 TO 30 KT E OF LINE 28N145W TO
20N153W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS NE TO SE 20 TO 30 KT FROM 26N TO 21N E
OF 148W.

.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FROM 15N TO 05N BETWEEN 160 AND 152W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT S OF 02N E OF 175W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT S OF 04N E OF 160W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSMTS N OF 23N W OF 170E.

$$
.HONOLULU FORECASTER.=

 

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