Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three 20/1200Z nr 25.4N 90.3W, moving NW 08 kt (NHC FL) – Published 20 Jun 2017 1218z (GMT/UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AL03)

(Future TS Cindy)

A Tropical Storm Warning for…Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

(Image: @wunderground)

(Image: @wunderground)

National Hurricane Center FL

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201138
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

…DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.4N 90.3W
ABOUT 265 MI…430 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Cameron to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.4 North, longitude 90.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected
Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance
is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.

Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is
gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system
will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1000.6 mb (29.54
inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning.

STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2017 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AL03 is currently located near 24.8 N 90.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). AL03 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 35% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
    Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Other

MARITIME/SHIPPING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
714 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 20/1200 UTC, is near 11.1N
63.6W, or about 17 nm to the ENE of La Isla de Margarita of
Venezuela. It is moving WNW westward, 290 degrees, 18 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Caribbean
Sea from 10N to 16N between 60W and 68W. Please read the NHC
Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 20/1200 UTC,
is near 25.4N 90.3W, about 230 nm to the SSW of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. It is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 8 knots. The
maximum wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong is in the waters from 26N to 30N
between 83W and 90W, and from 25N south between 83W and 87W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers inland areas
and coastal waters areas from the northern half of Guatemala
into the southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula, including in
the coastal waters of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the
NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/ Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/35W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
03N to 08N southward between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, most
probably related to the ITCZ, from 06N to 08N between 40W and
46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/71W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to
06N33W, and 03N43W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
from 04N to 12N between 12W and 23W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 25W and 31W.

…DISCUSSION…

…THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough passes through southern
Louisiana, to a 26N94W cyclonic circulation center, to the Mexico
coast near 25N98W and 20N105W in Mexico. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 20N northward from 90W westward.

…CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD…

LIFR: none.

IFR: KGRY and KATP.

MVFR: KVQT, KMDJ, and KMIS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA…

TEXAS: MVFR in McAllen, and in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: occasional
MVFR and areas of light rain from Patterson eastward to Lake
Pontchartain, and southeastward into the SE corner of the state.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Natchez. light rain and LIFR in Pascagoula.
ALABAMA: MVFR and light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan
area. drizzle in Gulf Shores. light rain and LIFR in Fort Rucker
and Dothan. FLORIDA: rain, heavy at times, and LIFR conditions,
from Perry westward. LIFR/IFR around the Tampa/St. Petersburg
metropolitan area.

…THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, with a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic
circulation center. Tropical Storm Bret is set to move into the
SE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours.

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N74W in Colombia, through
Panama, northwestward through Costa Rica, and beyond, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N southward from 77W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 20/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…are 1.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao.

…HISPANIOLA…

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted
trough, is moving across the area. Rainshowers and thunder still
are possible across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: rain and thunder. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of cyclonic wind flow, with the current N-to-S oriented trough.
Expect southerly wind flow during the first half of day two,
followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the second half of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will
consist of the rest of the inverted trough moving through the area
completely, during day one. Day one will end with SE wind flow
moving across Hispaniola. Expect SE wind flow during day two, with
an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE-to-E wind flow.
Expect cyclonic wind flow with a separate inverted trough, during
day two. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an E-to-W
oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

…THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, to a 14N68W
Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 21N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N southward
between Puerto Rico and 73W. Rainshowers and thunder still are
possible across Hispaniola.

An upper level trough passes through 32N32W to 21N35W. A cold
front passes through 32N24W to 25N41W and 31N57W. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward between 22W
and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward.
Widely scattered moderate is from 29N to 32N between 55W and 58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

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