Myanmar/ Bangladesh/ India: Tropical Cyclone MORA 02B 29/0900Z position near 18.3N 91.5E, moving NNE 08 kt (JTWC) – Updated 29 May 20017 1145z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm/Tropical Cyclone Mora

….INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (Bangladesh Met)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET (JTWC)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 02B (Mora) Warning #07
Issued at 29/0900Z

WTIO31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
290600Z — NEAR 17.7N 91.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 91.5E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z — 20.0N 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z — 22.8N 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z — 25.7N 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 91.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 290400Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE USING A 290316Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH INDICATES THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH ONLY
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE MORA JOGGED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT A GENERAL
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IN APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY LANDFALL NEAR CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH IN AROUND 24 HOURS.
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL, WITH THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
//
NNNN

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘MORA’ ADVISORY NO. SIX ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 29TH MAY 2017 BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 29TH MAY 2017
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SPEED OF 15 KMPH AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, 29TH MAY, 2017 OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 17.8ºN AND LONGITUDE 91.4ºE, ABOUT 610 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA(42807) AND 500 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG(41978). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN LONGITUDE 91.0ºE AND 92.0ºE NEAR CHITTAGONG AROUND 30TH MAY 2017 FORENOON.
OBSERVED AND FORECAST TRACK POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION
(LAT. ºN/ LONG. ºE)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE
29.05.2017/0600
17.8/91.4
80-90 GUSTING TO 100
CYCLONIC STORM
29.05.2017/1200
18.9/91.5
90-100 GUSTING TO 110
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
29.05.2017/1800
20.1/91.5
100-110 GUSTING TO 120
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/0000
21.3/91.6
110-120 GUSTING TO 130
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/0600
22.8/91.7
110-120 GUSTING TO 130
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
30.05.2017/1800
25.4/92.2
55-65 GUSTING TO 75
DEEP DEPRESSION
31.05.2017/0600
27.7/93.0
30-40 GUSTING TO 50
DEPRESSION
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE: THE STORM SURGE OF HEIGHT OF ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 METER ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IS LIKELY TO INUNDATE OVER LOW LYING AREAS OF BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN SITAKUND AND UTTAR JALDI AT THE
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-246524844 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com
TIME OF LANDFALL.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0. THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND (MSW) IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 992 HPA. A BUOY NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6º N AND LONGITUDE 89.1ºE REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
(MSLP) OF 1003.1 HPA AND MSW 320/21 KNOTS. ANOTHER BUOY NEAR LATITUDE
20.3º N AND LONGITUDE 92.0ºE REPORTED MSLP OF 1000.0 HPA. THE MULTISATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS SUGGEST HIGHER WINDS OF EASTERN SECTOR.
THE CONVECTION HAS FURTHER ORGANISED IN PAST 12 HOURS AND SHOWS
CURVED BAND PATTERN. BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE
TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 14.00N
TO 22.00N LONGITUDE 85.00E TO 97.00E. MINIMUM CTT IS ARROUND – 90.00C. THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS 30-31ºC. THE OCEAN
THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100 KJ/CM2. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE
TO HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND IS AROUND 15-25 KTS, VORTICITY IS
AROUND 200 X10-5 S-1. LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS OF THE ORDER OF 50 X10-5
S-1. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO OF THE ORDER OF 50 X10-5 S-1 AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS
ALONG 17.0ºN IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORHNORTHEASTWARDS
AS IT LAYS WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SO FOR NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND
THEREAFTER EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IN WESTERLY OVER
EASTERN INDIA. CURRENTLY SYSTEM IS BEING STARRED BY THE DEEP LAYER
WIND OF 200-850 HPA. THE MEAN DEEP LAYER WIND BETWEEN 200-850 HPA IS
170DEGREE/7 KNOTS. THE ANIMATION OF TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATE CONTINUOUS WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST
SECTOR. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMIS AT 0001 UTC OF 29TH
INDICATE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTRE FROM
NORTHEAST.
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE
MORE THAN 1. IT WOULD CONTINUE IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1
DURING NEXT 3 DAYS. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT DURING
NEXT 48 HRS.
(NARESH KUMAR)
SCIENTIST ‘D’
RSMC, NEW DELHI
Contact: Phone: (91) 11-246524844 FAX: (91) 11-24623220 e-mail :cwdhq2008@gmail.com

Bangladesh Met Logo

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO. 12 (TWELVE), Date: 29.05.2017 (Local Times)
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ (ECP 990 HPA) OVER NORTH BAY AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS FURTHER OVER THE SAME AREA, INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (NEAR LAT 18.8°N AND LONG 91.3°E) AND WAS CENTRED AT 06 PM TODAY (THE 29 MAY 2017) ABOUT 385 KMS SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 305 KMS SOUTH OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 450 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONGLA PORT AND 370 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND MAY CROSS CHITTAGONG – COX’S BAZAR COAST BY MORNING OF 30 MAY 2017.
UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ GUSTY/SQUALLY WIND WITH RAIN/ THUNDER SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH BAY AND THE COASTAL DISTRICTS AND MARITIME PORTS OF BANGLADESH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 64 KMS OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS ABOUT 89 KPH RISING TO 117 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE SYSTEM.
MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG AND COX’S BAZAR HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER TEN (R) TEN.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX’S BAZAR, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER TEN (R) TEN.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER FIVE BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 4-5 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP TO 89-117 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

BD map

N Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 29 May, 2017 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MORA is currently located near 17.7 N 91.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). MORA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Myanmar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Bangladesh
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    India
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Cox’s Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Sittwe (20.1 N, 93.1 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Comilla (23.4 N, 91.2 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Kyaukpyu (19.4 N, 93.6 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Cheduba (18.8 N, 93.7 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bhutan
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Khulna (22.9 N, 89.6 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Shillong (25.6 N, 91.9 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Dispur (26.1 N, 91.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Imphal (24.8 N, 93.9 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

(Image: TSR)

Other

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Deadly Cyclone Mora hits Bangladesh with high winds and rain – BBC News

(30 May 2017 1105 UTC)

Cyclone Mora has hit the south-eastern coast of Bangladesh, killing at least five people.

Most of them were killed by falling trees in the districts of Cox’s Bazar and Rangamati, officials told the BBC.

Hundreds of houses were fully or partly damaged, the officials said. Significant damage is reported in refugee camps housing Rohingya Muslims from neighbouring Myanmar.

The authorities have moved hundreds of thousands of people to shelters.

Cyclone Mora made landfall at 06:00 local time (00:00 GMT) between the fishing port of Cox’s Bazar and the city of Chittagong, with winds of up to 117 km/h (73mph), the country’s meteorological department said.

Low-lying areas of Cox’s Bazar, Chittagong and many other coastal districts were “likely to be inundated” by a storm surge of 1.2m-1.5m (4-5ft) above normal levels, the department had warned.

People have been evacuated to shelters, schools and government offices.

Fishing boats and trawlers have been advised to remain in shelters. Flights in the area have been cancelled.

About 20,000 houses in refugee camps for Rohingya were damaged, community leader Abdus Salam told AFP news agency.

“In some places, almost every shanty home made of tin, bamboo and plastic has been flattened,” Mr Salam added. “Some people were injured, but no-one is dead.”

Large camps have been set up in Cox’s Bazar for hundreds of thousands of Rohingya who have fled violence in Myanmar.

A clear picture is still not available due to poor communication with many affected areas, Bangladeshi officials told the BBC.

A number of houses were also damaged in western Myanmar.

Cyclone Mora will move northwards past Chittagong, weakening as it moves further inland and downgrading from a Category One hurricane to a tropical storm, tracking website Tropical Storm Risk forecasts.

Parts of eastern India are expected to be affected later on.

The Bay of Bengal is prone to storms and Bangladesh is often hit by severe weather during the monsoon season, from the middle to the end of the year.

Last year, Cyclone Roanu hit coastal Bangladesh, leaving at least 24 people dead.

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIN01 DEMS 291118
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLONIC STORM “MORA” OVER BAY OF BENGAL
DATE AND TIME BASED UPON WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:
PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 290600 UTC
PRESENT POSITION: 17.8 0N/91.40 E
POSITION ACCURATE TO 40 KM
PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 010/07 KT
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 33 NM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT
RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
FORECASTS:
06 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z 18.9°N /91.50 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z 20.1°N /91.50 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

18 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z 21.3°N /91.60 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z 22.8°N /91.70 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z 25.4°N /92.20 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40KT
RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z 27.7°N /93.00 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 15KT, GUSTS 25 KT

Bangladesh Met

Marine Warning
SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO. 12 (TWELVE), Date: 29.05.2017
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ (ECP 990 HPA) OVER NORTH BAY AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS FURTHER OVER THE SAME AREA, INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (NEAR LAT 18.8°N AND LONG 91.3°E) AND WAS CENTRED AT 06 PM TODAY (THE 29 MAY 2017) ABOUT 385 KMS SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 305 KMS SOUTH OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 450 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONGLA PORT AND 370 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND MAY CROSS CHITTAGONG – COX’S BAZAR COAST BY MORNING OF 30 MAY 2017.
UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ GUSTY/SQUALLY WIND WITH RAIN/ THUNDER SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH BAY AND THE COASTAL DISTRICTS AND MARITIME PORTS OF BANGLADESH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 64 KMS OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS ABOUT 89 KPH RISING TO 117 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE SYSTEM.
MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG AND COX’S BAZAR HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER SEVEN BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER TEN (R) TEN.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHITTAGONG, COX’S BAZAR, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER TEN (R) TEN.
MARITIME PORTS OF MONGLA AND PAYRA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER FIVE BUT INSTEAD HOIST GREAT DANGER SIGNAL NUBMER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BHOLA, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NUMBER EIGHT (R) EIGHT.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MORA’ THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, BHOLA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGHERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF 4-5 FEET HEIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, LAXMIPUR, FENI, CHANDPUR, BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, BARISAL, BHOLA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEED UP TO 89-117 KPH IN GUSTS/ SQUALLS WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY AND DEEP SEA HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Tropical Cyclone #01B #ONE #MAHASEN 160900Z near 23.7N 91.7E, moving NNE at 22 knots (JTWC). Landfall Bangladesh about 160200Z – 160513 1445z

(Image: wunderground.com) Storm-Centered Satellite Image (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Five Day Forecast Map (Click image for source)

R S M C Bulletin

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO.43
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM MAHASENADVISORY ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 16
th
MAY 2013 BASED
ON 0900 UTC CHARTS OF 16
TH
MAY 2013.
THE CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS DURING PAST 6 HOURS AT A SPEED OF ABOUT 50 KMPH AND CROSSED
BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN CHITTAGONG AND FENI, NEAR LATITUDE 22.8ºN AND
LONGITUDE 91.4ºE (ABOUT 30 KM SOUTH OF FENI), AROUND 1330 HOURS IST OF TODAY,
THE 16
TH
MAY 2013.

IT LAY CENTRED AT 1430 HOURS IST OF 16
TH
MAY 2013 OVER
BANGLADESH NEAR LATITUDE 23.5
0
N AND LONGITUDE 92.0
0
E, ABOUT 75 KM SOUTHWEST OF
AIZAL (42727) AND 85 KM SOUTHEAST OF AGARTALA (42724). IT WOULD MOVE NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION
IS SEEN OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, BANGLADESH, TRIPURA,
MIZORAM, MANIPUR, NAGALAND, MEGHALAYA, ASSAM, WEST ARUNACHAL PRADESH AND
NORTH ARAKAN COAST ADJOINING MYANMAR. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE
(CTT) IS ABOUT -51
0
C.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA OVER
NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.
BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES,
ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
Date/Time(UTC) Position
(Lat.
0
N/ Long.
0
E)
Sustained maximum
surface wind speed (kmph)
Category
16-05-2013/0900 23.5/92.0 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
16-05-2013/1200 24.0/92.5 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep Depression
16-05-2013/1800 25.5/94.0 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
17-05-2013/0000 26.5/95.5 25-35 gusting to 45 Low
THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM.

Cyclone Warning For Indian Coast

Time of issue: 1900 hours IST Dated: 16-05-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 01/2013/33
Sub: Cyclonic Storm, MAHASEN weakened into Deep depression over Mizoram
The cyclonic storm MAHASEN over Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards and
weakened into a deep depression and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of 16
th
May 2013 over
Mizoram near latitude 24.0
0
N and longitude 92.5
0
E, about 35 km North of Aizal. It would move
northeastwards and weaken into a depression during next 6 hours.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques,
estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST) Position
(Lat.
0
N/ Long.
0
E)
Sustained maximum
surface wind speed (kmph)
Category
16-05-2013/1730 24.0/92.5 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
16-05-2013/2330 25.5/94.0 35-45 gusting to 55 Depression
17-05-2013/0530 26.5/95.5 25-35 gusting to 45 Low
Under the influence of this system, Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy
falls at a isolated places would occur over South and east Assam, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura
and Nagaland during next 24 hours.
Squally wind speed reaching 50 -60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph would prevail over
South Assam, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura and Nagaland during next 12 hours.
The next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of the 17
th
May, 2013.

(Image: RSMC NEW DELHI) Observed & Forecast Track (Click image for source)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

(Image: JTWC) TC Track (Click image for source)

(Image: JTWC) Multispectral Satellite Imagery (Click image for source)

WTIO31 PGTW 160900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN) WARNING NR 025//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN) WARNING NR 025

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:

160600Z NEAR 23.0N 91.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 025 DEGREES AT 22 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 91.0E

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

161800Z 25.8N 93.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:

160900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 91.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM

SOUTHEASTWARD OF DHAKA, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD

AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC MAHASEN HAS MADE LANDFALL

NORTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH AND IS RAPIDLY FALLING APART AS

THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. RADAR IMAGERY FROM KOLKATA,

INDIA ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE RAPID WEAKENING AS CONVECTION HAS

SHALLOWED. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE

WESTERLIES AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN INDIA WHILE CONTINUALLY

WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS RUGGED TERRAIN AND HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOTS)

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01B WILL DISSIPATE BELOW 35 KNOTS IN THE

NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS IS THE FINAL

WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

NNNN

Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone One

(wunderground.com)

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)   Storm type
————————————————————-

06 GMT 05/10/13 4.8N 93.6E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/10/13 5.5N 92.7E 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/10/13 6.1N 91.9E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/11/13 7.0N 91.0E 45 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/11/13 7.7N 90.2E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/11/13 8.8N 88.8E 60 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/11/13 9.3N 88.1E 60 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/12/13 10.2N 86.9E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/12/13 10.0N 87.3E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/12/13 10.2N 87.0E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/12/13 10.7N 86.7E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/13/13 11.5N 86.7E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/13/13 11.8N 86.4E 60 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/13/13 12.4N 85.7E 60 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/13/13 12.9N 85.4E 60 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/14/13 13.7N 85.3E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/14/13 14.2N 85.8E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/14/13 14.8N 86.2E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/14/13 15.4N 86.7E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/15/13 16.4N 87.3E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/15/13 17.5N 87.8E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/15/13 18.5N 88.4E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/15/13 19.6N 89.1E 60 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/16/13 20.5N 89.9E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/16/13 23.0N 91.0E 50 Tropical Storm

TSR logoN Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 16 May, 2013 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm MAHASEN (01B) currently located near 23.0 N 91.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for TS is 90% currently
Bangladesh
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Comilla (23.4 N, 91.2 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Barisal (22.7 N, 90.3 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Dhaka (23.7 N, 90.4 E)
probability for TS is 75% currently
Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Tropical storm Mahasen struck Bangladesh at about 02:00 GMT on 16 May.

Source: Tropical Storm Risk Thu, 16 May 2013 08:20 AM

Author: Tropical Storm Risk

Tropical storm Mahasen struck Bangladesh at about 02:00 GMT on 16 May.Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall was near 21.1 N, 90.2 E.Mahasen brought 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 92 km/h (57 mph).Wind gusts in the area may have been considerably higher.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

This alert is provided by TropicalStorm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL).

Refugees Refuse to move ahead of Mahasen

Published on May 15, 2013 by

cyclone

Thousands of Muslim Refugees along the Burma coastline are refusing to evacuate ahead of Cyclone Mahasen.

Camps dot the Burma coastline after thousands fled Clashes between Buddhist and Muslims over the past year.  Sittwe is where the largest of the evacuations are taking place.  A low lying area near the coast where thousands of make shift homes have been set up.  Most of these “buildings” are made out of mud, cloth and wood.

But, Reuters reports that many of the residents are refusing to leave and move yet again. One resident was quoted as saying “I lost my mother and two imagesyoung daughters during the clashes between Muslims and Rakhine (Buddhists) last year. I lost everything. That’s why I pray to Allah to let all the people from here die with the storm. I don’t want to go nowhere. I’ll stay here. If I die, I want to die here.”

Even Myanmar’s Vice PresidentNyan Tun visits the internal displaced people camp in Rakhine states on Tuesday (May 14) to persuade them to relocate but many refuse to go.

The storm already taking the lives of nearly 100 people yesterday in a boat capsizing. In Sri Lanka seven deaths due to heavy rains was reported.  These low lying camps and the people that live in them if they stay in place ahead of this storm they will be putting themselves at a serious risk. Cyclone Mahasen is not a severe storm by any means. And most first world countries would laugh at this storm as a minor nuisance. But these villages where the storm is headed will under severe threat.

.” – westernpacificweather.com

For complete updates please check out our Tropical Information Center. 

What makes Mahansen so dangerous

Published on May 13, 2013 by

“Cyclone Mahansen continues to be only forecasted to become a equivalent of a weak typhoon before landfall in Bangladesh on Thursday. To many around the world and especially first world countries this sounds like a gentle breeze to ride out in the coming days.

Yet many of those living in low lying areas in Myanmar this storm is a very real and serious threat.   Nearly 130,000 people are living in makeshift camps near the coastal plains of the country after fleeing violence between clashes Buddhist and Muslims in western portions of the country. These cyclonecamps are not made to withstand cyclone, even a weak one. And this pending storms brings the threat of a disaster if it is to hit of these refugee camps as a Severe Cyclonic System.

At this time the worst of the storm is forecasted to stay west but with the pending track still uncertain. Even if the was to miss the refugee camps a heavy rainfall would still bring harsh conditions for those who make the area home.  We hope for the safety of those ahead of the storm.

It would be easy to say this area is used to deadly storms. In 2008 the country suffered 180,000 casualties when a cyclone hit the Irrawaddy River delta.  In 1991 a cyclone hit a little farther north in Bangledesh resulting in the deaths of 350,000 people.

” – westernpacificweather.com

Storm Surge Inundates 25 villages in Bangladesh

Published on May 16, 2013 by

This article comes from https://chittagong.recovers.org/ , if you need help or wish to help the recovery efforts from this storm please click the link.

CYCLONE MAHASEN Storm surge inundates 25 Patuakhali villages STAR ONLINE REPORT At least 25 villages of four upazilas of Patuakhali were flooded Wednesday night as storm surge washed away flood control dams with the Cyclone Mahasen approaching the coastal region.

Many of the marooned people of the villages rushed to cyclone shelters and other high lands after the high tide stormed made way into their villages stormaround 11:00pm, our Patuakhali correspondent reported.

The upazilas are: Kolapara, Golachipa, Rangabali and Dashmina.

The storm surge of at least five feet height was reported in the villages.

Meanwhile, the Patuakhali town went under at least four feet of tide early morning as a drizzle continues to pour since Wednesday evening.

Our correspondent reported that the local Met office recorded a 60kph wind in the town last night. It is 70kph in Kuakata, a popular tourist destination.

Some of the inundated people have yet to leave their houses for safer place.

UN OCHA Flash Update 6, Cyclone Mahasen, Bangladesh and Myanmar

“Tropical Cyclone Mahasen, which has been downgraded to a tropical storm, made landfall in Bangladesh on the morning of 16 May (local time), bringing strong winds and heavy rains to Chittagong and surrounding districts. On its current path, it will continue to move northeast from Myanmar and towards the eastern states of India. The current speed at the centre of the storm is around 80 km/h and is expected to reduce its wind speed to 55 km/h as it continues to move inland.

In Bangladesh, an estimated one million people were evacuated from 13 coastal districts in the 24-hour prior to the arrival of the storm. A tidal surge has caused floods in the districts of Barguna, Bhola, Patuakhali, Nohakhali and Laxmipur. The Government has not declared a disaster, and no request for international assistance has been received at this time.

The United Nations met this morning in Dhaka and committed to working collaboratively with the Government and to provide support where required. Humanitarian partners report they are ready to respond. While people have moved to evacuation centres, there have been some instances of resistance due to multiple factors including changes in weather conditions.

The Bangladesh Government, through its Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) has broadcast pre-cyclone Public Service Announcements (PSAs), carrying preparedness messages endorsed by the Department of Disaster Management via national radio. Post-cyclone messages for affected people are on standby to be broadcast immediately after the cyclone has passed.

A distribution plan for food assistance has been developed by humanitarian agencies, to supplement Government food and cash reserves. Essential nutrition and emergency WASH supplies have been pre-positioned for approximately 43,000 households in vulnerable districts. More than 6,000 family kits and two mobile water treatment units have been transferred to Chittagong.

In Myanmar, while it appears that the storm has moved further away from Rakhine state, heavy rain is still expected. Approximately 250 staff members of humanitarian organisations are in country and remain on standby and ready to respond; a number of them with expertise in rapid assessments. Assessment teams will begin assessment of affected sites as soon as possible after the storm subsides.

Assessment teams and protection monitoring continued working today at various camps with the assistance of community leaders, religious leaders, and international aid workers to help alleviate concerns of those resistant to move.

The government estimates nearly 78,000 people from 13 townships in Rakhine State have been relocated in total. UN agencies maintain that all measures must be taken to ensure that no lives are under undue threat. Some communities continued to resist relocatation to Government buildings but were eventually persuaded to move into other nearby locations, including schools, madrasas, and with host communities.

OCHA, UNHCR and UNICEF led training sessions today for staff on inter-sectoral rapid assessment, as agencies and humanitarian partners will initiate a post-storm assessment process across Rakhine in the coming days. The assessment will address the current needs of people in the relocation sites as well as requirements for their future return. At this time, it is unclear when the relocated communities will return to their places of temporary settlement, or whether other options will be made available for some.

Although Mahasen has passed Rakhine State, it is clear that many thousands are still accommodated in areas which make them more vulnerable to the elements and this must not continue. The Government of the United Kingdom today pledged a £4.4 million (US$6.7 million) humanitarian aid package for IDPs in Rakhine State ahead of the cyclone and rainy seasons. The aid package will provide 80,000 people with access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation facilities; treatment for malnourished children; and, hygiene kits for 40,000 people.

OCHA expects to issue another Flash Update tomorrow.” – unocha

Cyclone Mahasen hits Bangladeshi coast

(Video credit:AlJazeeraEnglish)

Published on 16 May 2013

Hundreds of thousands of people in Bangladesh have been evacuated, as Cyclone Mahasen approached one of the poorest countries in Asia with winds of around 100km per hour. Similar measures have been taken in Myanmar however, some displaced people in Rakhine state have ignored calls for them to evacuate camps. The UN said that more than 4.1 million people could be at risk from the cyclone, which started crossing Bangladesh’s low-lying coast on Thursday.

MARITIME

METAREA8N / HIGH_SEAS_WARNING / 1750

WTIN01 DEMS 151750

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 900 UTC 15 MAY 2013

PART I:- STORM WARNING

PART II:-

THE CYCLONIC STORM (MAHASEN) OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY OF

BENGAL MOVED NORTHEASTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC

OF YESTERDAY THE, 14TH MAY 2013 WITHIN HALF A DEG. OF

LAT. 14.5 DEG. N / LONG. 86.0 DEG. E, ABOUT 850 KMS

NORTHWEST OF PORTBLAIR, 460 KMS SOUTHEAST OFVISHAKHAPATNAM

650 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PARADIP 1060 KMS SOUTHWEST OF

CHITTAGONG (.)IT MOVED FURTHER NORTHEASTWARDS AND NOW

LIES CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY THE,15TH MAY 2013

WITHIN HALF A DEG. OF LAT. 16.5 DEG.N /LONG. 87.0 EG.E,

ABOUT 800 KMS NORTH WEST OF PORT BLAIR,380 KMS EAST

SOUTHEAST OF SHKHAPAYNAM,520 KMS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

PARADIP AND 820 KMS SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG (.)IT

WOULD INESIFY FURTHER AND MOVE EASTWARDS AND CROSS

BANGLA DESH COAST DURING NIGHT OF16TH MAY 2013(.)

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING FAVOURABLE FOR ONSET OF

SOUTHWEST MONSOON OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING

SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL DURING NEXT 48 HOURS(.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)

ARB: A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80

DEG.E(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOUR

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-

1)N OF 05 DEG N:MAINLY NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)

2)S OF 05 DEG N:SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:- FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOUR

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-

1)N OF 05 DEG N:MAINLY NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)

2)S OF 05 DEG N:SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:- FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

ARB: A2 ARABIAN SEA N. OF 10 DEG N.AND W OF 80 DEG E(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:8-6 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:8-6 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

BOB:A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N AND EOF 80 DEG

E(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-W/SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-2-3 M (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-W/SW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-2-3 M (.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E

(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS(.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:-0-1 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-5-6 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS(.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY:-0-1 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-5-6 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : NicobarComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Portblair
High wind waves in the range of 2.5-5.0 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 15-05-2013 to 23:30 hours of 16-05-2013 along the west and east coast of Nicobar Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Great Channel.

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : AndamanComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Portblair
High wind waves in the range of 2.5-5.0 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 15-05-2013 to 23:30 hours of 16-05-2013 along the west and east coast of Andaman Islands between Ten Degree Channel to Coco Channel.

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Port-Blair

High Wind-Wave Alert

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : Tamil NaduComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Pondicherry
High wind waves in the range of 2.5 5.0 meters are predicted during 02:30 hrs on 16-05-2013 to 23:30 hrs on 17-05-2013 along the Kolachal to kilakarai of Southern Tamil Nadu.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Kolachal

High Wind-Wave Watch

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : OrissaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Gopalpur
High wind waves in the range of 2.5 to 4.8 meters are predicted during 17:30 hrs on 15-05-2013 to 23:30 hrs on 16-05-2013 along the coast from Gopalpur to Baleshwar of Orissa coast.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Gopalpur

High Wind-Wave Watch

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : West Bengal
High wind waves in the range of 2.5 to 4.8 meters are predicted during 17:30 hrs on 15-05-2013 to 23:30 hrs on 16-05-2013 along the coast from False point to Sagar Island of West Bengal coast.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Sagar-Roads

High Wind-Wave Watch

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : KeralaComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Kollam
High wind waves in the range of 2.5-4.5 meters are forecasted during 02:30 hours on 16-05-2013 to 23:30 hours of 17-05-2013 along the Kerala coast between Vizhinjam to Kasargod.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Quilon

High Wind-Wave Watch

Issue Date :15/05/2013 Region : LakshadweepComparisions of wave forecast with Observations : Agatti
High wind waves in the range of 2.0-3.6 meters are forecasted during 0830 hours on 15-05-2013 to 2330 hours of 17-05-2013 along Lakshadweep Islands between Minicoy to Bitra.
images

Wave Height

Tide Predictions

Minicoy

images
Kalpana Image

Tropical Cyclone #01B #ONE #MAHASEN 120900Z near 10.2N 87.1E, moved NW at 12 knots (JTWC) – 120513 0900z

Updated…. please go here:

Tropical Cyclone #01B #ONE #MAHASEN 130900Z near 12.1N 86.3E, moved NW at 04 knots (JTWC) 1305130900z