Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands/ Caribbean: Tropical Storm KAREN 24/2100Z 18.0N 65.8W, moving N ~07kt. Wind 45mph. 1005mb (NHC FL) – Updated 24 Sep 2019 2130Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm KAREN

……CENTER OF KAREN NOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO……

….the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and
then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday…..

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FL

 

 
000
WTNT32 KNHC 242048
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

…CENTER OF KAREN NOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC...INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI…110 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with some increase in forward speed is forecast
tonight, with this motion continuing through Wednesday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and
then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. During the past few hours,
wind gusts of tropical-storm force have been reported in portions
of the Virgin Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.

Leeward Islands…1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

PUERTO RICO

Weather Forecast Office
NWS San Juan, PR

 

 

Tropical Storm Warning
	Flash Flood Watch
	Hurricane Local Statement
	Rip Current Statement
	Hazardous Weather Outlook

TROPICAL STORM RISK
University College London, UK

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 24 Sep, 2019 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KAREN is currently located near 16.8 N 65.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). KAREN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Puerto Rico
        probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours
    the Virgin Islands
        probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours
    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
        probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the British Virgin Islands
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

 

 

Current probability of tropical storm winds

 

Other

Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Alerts

(Image: @RoshinRowjee)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTNT22 KNHC 242048
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO…INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 65.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 0NE 70SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 65.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.6N 65.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 40NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.9N 64.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.2N 64.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.9N 63.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.2N 61.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 65.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2…AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

FZNT02 KNHC 242056
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC TUE SEP 24.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED SEP 25.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU SEP 26.

.WARNINGS.

…HURRICANE WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM LORENZO NEAR 12.8N 31.0W 997 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP
24 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS…130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM NE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 13N TO 19N E
OF 39W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 13.2N 33.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 13.8N 35.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 190 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…70 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
300 NM N AND 270 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. ELSEWHERE
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 09N TO 20N E OF 40W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS S OF 22N E OF 31W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 15.6N 40.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 190 NM NE QUADRANT…120 NM SE QUADRANT…80 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
360 NM N AND 270 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE
OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 390 NM N AND 300 NM S SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS
S OF 25N E OF 49W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 18.8N 42.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 21.9N 45.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 24.9N 45.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING…
.TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 31.1N 69.0W 992 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 24
MOVING N OR 010 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS
55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM W
SEMICIRCLE…160 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT…180 NM SE
QUADRANT…120 NM SW QUADRANT…AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 61W
AND 72W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER FORECAST
WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO
9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 32.9N 65.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 130 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER TO LIFT N OF AREA. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN
60W AND 67W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY NEAR 34.4N 60.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JERRY NEAR 34.5N
56.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JERRY NEAR 33.0N
54.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST…DISSIPATED.

…ATLC AND CARIBBEAN TROPICAL STORM WARNING…

.TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 18.0N 65.8W 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP
24 MOVING N OR 00 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM N
SEMICIRCLE…70 NM SE QUADRANT AND 20 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM SE QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM E AND 30 NM W
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS
AND TSTMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 21.9N 64.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT…70 NM SE QUADRANT…30 NM SW
QUADRANT…AND 0 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90
NM NE QUADRANT…60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM E AND 45 NM W SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 25.9N 63.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM E SEMICIRCLE…40 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER…EXCEPT
90 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM E
AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.2N 61.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK…USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY…ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.0N 62.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 26.5N 65.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK…SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

===========================================================================================================

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