Rodrigues /Mauritius /LaReunion /Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone #Eleven (11S) 082100Z position nr 15.2S 69.8E, moving W 05kt (JTWC) – Published 08 Mar 2017 2100z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Eleven (11S)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 15.2S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 70.1E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 15.3S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 15.8S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 16.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 18.7S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 21.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 24.8S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 28.2S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
AND A 081732Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE PREVIOUSLY FRAGMENTED CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND
CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 081732Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING THE TIGHT LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM OF T2.5-3.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A SMALL BUT DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). SSTS ALSO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION WITH TEMPS
OBSERVED NEAR 30C. SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AT
THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH, STEERING TC 11S SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE TIME
BEING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S ARE CURRENTLY
PROVIDING SOME PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
DISPLACING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFF THE LLCC, AND
LIMITING POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AS UPPER-
LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS REESTABLISHED BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT
TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC11S WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWEST AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND THE STEERING SHIFTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FOREWORD MOTION AFTER
TAU 36 DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE SYSTEM TO THE EAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TRACK, WITH SOME INITIAL DISAGREEMENT OF
THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS 14 FEET. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

=============================================================================

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
RSMC / CENTER OF LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONES
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING CYCLONE (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) NEWSLETTER
0.A NEWSLETTER: 9/7/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION HAS 1800 UTC ON 03/08/2017:
WITHIN A RADIUS OF 20 MINUTES AROUND THE POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(SIXTY TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DEGREES ZERO‘S)
DISPLACEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A WIND MAX (MEDIUM/10 MIN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): VOID
6.A WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM) EXTENSION:
28 KT ONLY: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO.: 0
7.A SIDE/DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION PORTRAIT OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: AVERAGE
1.B FORECASTS:
12 H: 03/09/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
24: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
36H: 10 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 10 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 11 / 03 / 2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E WIND MAX = 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 11 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E WIND MAX = 035 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
2.B TREND FURTHER:
96H: 12 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
120H: 13 / 03 / 201718 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E WIND MAX = 040 KT, POSTTROPICALE DEPRESSION
2.C COMMENTS:
T = 2.5, CI = 2.5
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS GENERALLY IMPROVING BUT IT IS
A VERY RECENT. THE N18 1416Z WATCH AGAIN PASS A CENTER EXPOSES A
WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND IT IS SINCE SHORTLY BEFORE 17Z ONLY ONE
BURST OF CONVECTION TAKES PLACE VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THE ASCAT PASS OF THE
EVENING CONFIRMS INTENSITY ANALYZED. IF THIS TREND IS CONSOLIDATING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SMALL
WINDOW OF FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY
THE MINIMUM SE MOVED SLOWLY IN THE WEST BRANCH UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW/MEDIUM RIDGE
TROPOSPHERE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH EAST OF THE BASIN. TOMORROW NIGHT, THE
MODELS AVAILABLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO PREDICT A TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES, WHICH CAUSES A
UNCERTAINTY AVERAGE WELL REPORTED BY THE DISPERSION OF THE FORECAST
OVERVIEW OF THE CEP. THIS WEEKEND, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER HIS
PATH ON THE SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED UP BYPASSING THIS RIDGE.
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE HAS ITS
ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING ALTITUDE, WHICH MAKES FORECASTING
HARD INTENSITY. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT, THE ASCENT OF A THALWEG
ALTITUDE FROM THE MIDDLE LATITUDES (WAVE SURGE OF)
ROSSBY) CAUSES THE APPEARANCE OF A SECTOR MODERATE CONSTRAINT
NORTH. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA, MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICK OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALLOW IT TO LIMIT ITS
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVOURABLE, WITHOUT WEAKENING
INFLUENCE ON BAROCLINIC NET DYNAMICS OF ALTITUDE. IN THE PROCESS OF
WEEKEND WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE THALWEG OF ALTITUDE AND MAINTAINING
A GREAT DIFFERENCE POLAR, THE SYSTEM COULD BE

REINTENSIFIER.

WTIO31 FMEE 081914
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D’ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/7/20162017
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 7
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 70.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 09/03/2017 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 10/03/2017 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
48H: 10/03/2017 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
60H: 11/03/2017 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
72H: 11/03/2017 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2017 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
120H: 13/03/2017 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION POSTTROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=2.5 CI=2.5
LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE EST GLOBALEMENT EN AMELIORATION MAIS C’EST
TRES RECENT. LA PASS N18 DE 1416Z MONTRE ENCORE UN CENTRE EXPOSE A
L’OUEST DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE, ET C’EST DEPUIS PEU AVANT 17Z QU’UN
BURST DE CONVECTION A LIEU TRES PRES DU CENTRE. LA PASS ASCAT DE LA
SOIREE CONFIRME L’INTENSITE ANALYSEE. SI CETTE TENDANCE SE CONSOLIDE
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT PROFITER DE LA PETITE
FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR S’INTENSIFIER PLUS
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
LE MINIMUM SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L’OUEST SOUS
L’INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES/MOYENNES
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE SUR LA PARTIE SUD-EST DU BASSIN. DEMAIN SOIR, LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT EN BON ACCORD POUR PREVOIR UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD MAIS AVEC DES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING, CE QUI PROVOQUE UNE
INCERTITUDE MOYENNE BIEN BALISEE PAR LA DISPERSION DE LA PREVISION
D’ENSEMBLE DU CEP. CE WEEK-END, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA
TRAJECTOIRE SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET
ACCELERER EN CONTOURNANT CETTE DORSALE.
LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME LE REND PARTICULIEREMENT SENSIBLE A SON
ENVIRONNEMENT, NOTAMMENT EN ALTITUDE, CE QUI REND LA PREVISION
D’INTENSITE DIFFICILE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, LA REMONTEE D’UN THALWEG
D’ALTITUDE DEPUIS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES (DEFERLEMENT D’ONDE DE
ROSSBY) PROVOQUE L’APPARITION D’UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR
NORD. SELON LES DERNIERES DONNEES MODELES, LE DEPLACEMENT
RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE LIMITER SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU SEIN DE CET ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS FAVORABLE, SANS
INFLUENCE BAROCLINE NETTE DE LA DYNAMIQUE D’ALTITUDE. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, AVEC LA DISSIPATION DU THALWEG D’ALTITUDE ET LE MAINTIEN
D’UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE POLAIRE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SE
REINTENSIFIER.

===========================================================================

MARITIME/SHIPPING

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/1 March 08 2017 – 18:39:19 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/2 March 08 2017 – 18:35:46 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 24/3 March 08 2017 – 12:32:19 UTC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 17:44:07 UTC
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST March 08 2017 – 12:44:02 UTC

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

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