Mexico: Tropical Storm Danielle (04L) STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS E MEXICO…NHC – Published 20 Jun 2016 1745z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Danielle

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

Image: @wunderground Satellite

Image: @wunderground Satellite

National Hurricane Center FL US

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]000
WTNT34 KNHC 201432
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

…DANIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…20.7N 96.3W
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI…165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.3 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
west or west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Danielle
makes landfall in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi

N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2016 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DANIELLE is currently located near 20.7 N 96.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). DANIELLE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

Danielle the Atlantic’s Earliest 4th Storm on Record; 115°-120° Heat in SW U.S – WEATHER UNDERGROUND

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 3:59 PM GMT on June 20, 2016

“Tropical Storm Danielle formed on Monday morning in the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche, but won’t be around long. The storm’s west to west-northwest motion will carry the storm inland over Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico by Monday evening. With top winds of just 45 mph as estimated by the National Hurricane Center in their 11 am EDT Monday advisory, heavy rain is expected to be the primary threat from the storm. Satellite loops show a large area of intense thunderstorms with heavy rain are moving inland along the Mexican coast south of Texas, and total rainfall amounts of 6 – 10″ are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides in the mountainous terrain along the coast. Heavy rains from Danielle will remain just south of Texas, with Brownsville expected to pick up an inch of rain or less in scattered thunderstorms through Monday night. Danielle will dissipate by Tuesday over the rugged terrain east of Mexico City.”
For more click link https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3337

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 20

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1431

WTNT24 KNHC 201431
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
. LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 50NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 97.2W…NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 98.1W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z…DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 96.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART=

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

 

One thought on “Mexico: Tropical Storm Danielle (04L) STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS E MEXICO…NHC – Published 20 Jun 2016 1745z (GMT/UTC)

  1. N Atlantic: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Jun, 2016 21:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm DANIELLE is currently located near 21.3 N 97.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). DANIELLE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
    probability for TS is 90% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
    probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
    probability for TS is 75% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

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