Pacific Ocean/Wallis/Samoa: Tropical Cyclone Amos 17F: 201800Z 12.6S 179.9W, moving WNW 06 Kt. Expected to INTENSIFY – Published 20 Apr 2016 2020Z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Amos 17F

Tropical Cyclone Amos

5 Day Forecast (Image: @wunderground)

Tropical Cyclone Amos

Image: @wunderground Satellite

 

“Update of Tropical Cyclone “Amos”

During the early hours of this morning, Tropical Depression TD17F has intensified into a Tropical Cyclone and was named Tropical Cyclone “Amos”.

At 3am this morning, it was analysed at 12.8S 179.9W or approximately 230km south-southeast of Niulakita(Tuvalu) or 330km north of Cikobia(Fiji). It is moving westwards at around 14km/hr. As indicated on the attached map, it will turn and move the southeast and is likely to pass in between Wallis and Samoa and this is likely to occur during the weekend

It poses no direct threat to Fiji.

Keep checking this page for further updates.

Stay safe,
Fiji Met”

1823UTC 200416

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 201944 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE AMOS CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 179.9W AT
201800UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. AMOS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
LLCC FROM NORTH. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS
WARMING FROM THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 400HPA.
SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 210600 UTC 12.7S 180.0 MOV SW AT 01KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 211800 UTC 12.4S 179.4W MOV ENE AT 03KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 12.2S 178.4W MOV ENE AT 05KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 12.3S 177.3W MOV E AT 06KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TOPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON AMOS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
210200UTC.

SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 20 Apr, 2016 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm AMOS is currently located near 12.6 S 179.6 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). AMOS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

STORM WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 201913 UTC.

***** CORRECTION TO WARNING NUMBER *****

TROPICAL CYCLONE AMOS CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6
SOUTH 179.9 WEST AT 201800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 12.6S 179.9W AT 201800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS. CYCLONE EXPECTING
INTENSIFY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 211200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.7S 180.0 AT 210600 UTC
AND NEAR 12.4S 179.4W AT 211800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.

WTPS11 NFFN 201800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
APR 201944 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE AMOS CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 179.9W AT
201800UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. AMOS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
LLCC FROM NORTH. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS
WARMING FROM THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 400HPA.
SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 210600 UTC 12.7S 180.0 MOV SW AT 01KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 211800 UTC 12.4S 179.4W MOV ENE AT 03KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 12.2S 178.4W MOV ENE AT 05KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 12.3S 177.3W MOV E AT 06KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TOPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON AMOS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
210200UTC.

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

7 thoughts on “Pacific Ocean/Wallis/Samoa: Tropical Cyclone Amos 17F: 201800Z 12.6S 179.9W, moving WNW 06 Kt. Expected to INTENSIFY – Published 20 Apr 2016 2020Z (GMT/UTC)

  1. SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 22 Apr, 2016 12:00 GMT

    Tropical ‪#‎Cyclone‬ ‪#‎AMOS‬ is currently located near 12.4 S 176.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). AMOS is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson ‪#‎Hurricane‬ Wind Scale. AMOS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustain

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

  2. SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 22 Apr, 2016 18:00 GMT

    Tropical Cyclone AMOS is currently located near 12.4 S 175.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). AMOS is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. AMOS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
    probability for TS is 65% currently

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

  3. SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 23 Apr, 2016 6:00 GMT

    Tropical Cyclone AMOS is currently located near 12.8 S 173.2 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). AMOS is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. AMOS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 90% currently
    Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

  4. “Red Cross prepares as Tropical Cyclone Amos bears down on Samoa
    Published: 23 April 2016 12:03 CET

    The Samoa Red Cross is helping local residents prepare for what could be challenging times ahead as Cyclone Amos approaches. Photo Credit: Samoa Red Cross

    By Corinne Ambler, IFRC

    As Tropical Cyclone Amos edges closer to Samoa, the Samoa Red Cross is helping local residents to prepare for what could be challenging times ahead. On its current track, the centre of the cyclone is expected to pass across the island nation on Sunday as a Category 4 storm. The cyclone is expected to bring torrential rain, damaging winds and sea-swells.

    Cyclone Amos is expected to affect most of Samoa, in particular the island of Savai’i. While there are reports of surface flooding and electricity cuts in some parts of Savaii, roads are currently open and other services unaffected. The Samoa Red Cross has moved stocks of tarpaulins for emergency shelter and other essential aid to the island in anticipation.

    Samoa Red Cross secretary general Lolofie Namulauulu Tautala Mauala said the effects of the cyclone are already being felt.

    “It’s been very dark all day with heavy rain and now it’s a bit windy. 50 volunteers and staff have been activated and 200 more volunteers are on standby to assist when the cyclone makes landfall,” she said.

    Mrs Mauala said Samoa Red Cross has pre-positioned stocks in six sites around the country and its volunteers have been in communities giving advice to people on safeguards to take in preparation for the cyclone.

    “It is expected that more than 30 volunteers will be involved in providing first aid in the community. A team of volunteers has already contacted some regular blood donors who are willing and available to give blood if this is needed. Staff and volunteers are on standby to carry out assessments of damages once the cyclone has passed.”

    In the capital Apia, five possible sites have been identified for evacuation centres and a small team of volunteers is on hand to help set up and administer the centres if required. Preparations are also being made to carry out water treatment in two locations should this be necessary.

    The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has also set up an emergency task force in its Pacific office in Suva to support Samoa Red Cross and is preparing to send emergency personnel on the first available flight to Apia if needed.

    Tropical Cyclone Amos will be the largest storm to hit Samoa since Cyclone Evan a Category 3 storm struck on December 13, 2012, damaging more than 1,000 homes and flooding parts of the capital Apia.

    Follow @CorinneAmbler and @IfrcAsiaPacific on Twitter for updates on Cyclone Amos” – ifrc.org

    Like

  5. NASA Hurricane:
    “SO PACIFIC OCEAN *Full Update* Warnings Posted in Samoa for Tropical Cyclone Amos
    The warnings are in effect for American Samoa and independent Samoa as Tropical Cyclone Amos nears.
    Tropical Cyclone Amos formed in the South Pacific Ocean on April 20, 2016 and has been gradually intensifying. The GPM core observatory satellite had a fairly good view of tropical cyclone Amos on April 21, 2016 at 1551 UTC. Rainfall estimates derived from GPM’s Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) data are shown overlaid on an enhanced infrared image captured by Japan’s Himawari-8 geostationary satellite at 1600 UTC. This analysis shows that Amos was close to forming an eye at the time of that GPM’s pass.
    At 0900 GMT (5 a.m. EDT) on Saturday, April 23, 2016, Amos was located near 12.8 south latitude and 173.2 west longitude, just 171 nautical miles west-northwest of Pago Pago, Samoa. Maximum sustained winds were near 90 knots (103.6 mph/166 kph) and it was moving to the east-southeast at 15 knots.
    A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning is in force for American Samoa and a tropical cyclone warning cat 3 is in force for independent Samoa. For updated watches and warnings, visit the National Weather Service website for Pago Pago: http://www.weather.gov/ppg/
    SO The National Weather Service in Pago Pago has issued a flash flood warning for Tutuila Aunuu until 12 Pm Saturday local time. Occasional showers with locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms will continue to impact Tutuila and Aunuu tonight through saturday afternoon. Heavy rainfall will inundate low lying areas and roadways. Hurricane Amos is moving east southeast towards tutuila and aunuu.
    Amos is moving east and will maintain current intensity for a day or two, before a weakening trend begins as the system veers south.
    GPM is a joint missions between NASA and the Japanese space agency JAXA.”
    https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpt1/v/t1.0-0/s526x395/13055496_1073986075981518_8874376412817235062_n.jpg?oh=2d9e22d20cb2242e9fb38674881d5491&oe=57A20DA0

    Like

  6. SW Pacific: TSR Storm Alert issued at 23 Apr, 2016 12:00 GMT

    Tropical Cyclone AMOS is currently located near 13.4 S 172.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 90 kts (104 mph). AMOS is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. AMOS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% currently
    probability for TS is 95% currently

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

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