Seychelles/Madagascar: Very Intense Tropical Cyclone FANTALA 08R 19S: (=CAT5-SS) – Published 18 Apr 2016 1638Z (GMT/UTC)

Very Intense Tropical ‪Cyclone‬ ‪FANTALA‬ ‪(08R‬ ‪19S)

(= CATEGORY 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 40 FEET.

5 Day Forecast (Image: @wunderground)

Image: @wunderground Satellite

ZCZC 048
WTIO30 FMEE 181238 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/8/20152016
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION 2016/04/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 49.3 E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 130 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/04/19 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2016/04/19 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2016/04/20 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2016/04/20 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2016/04/21 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/04/21 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/04/22 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2016/04/23 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=7.0-, CI=7.5-
NNNN

WTIO31 FMEE 181238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE OF LA REUNION
ANALYSIS REPORT AND FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 30/8/20152016
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 18/04/2016:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / E 49.3
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0 / 7.5 / 0.5 W / H 6
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 130 KT
RAY OF MAXIMUM WIND (RVM): 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION BY WINDS QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: SO 240 250 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: SO 110 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE SE 80 80 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE SE 60: 60 SW: 70 NO: 60
7.A / DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 04/19/2016 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY
INTENSE
24H: 19/04/2016 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
36H: 20/04/2016 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
48H: 20/04/2016 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
60H: 21/04/2016 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 21/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B TREND LATER:
96H: 22/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 23/04/2016 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C:
T = 7.0-, 7.5- CI =
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS EYE FANTALA REMAINS VERY WELL
DEFINED AND HOT. SUMMITS PERIODS HAVE warmed up slightly.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXCELLENT FLOW ALOFT OUTGOING.
SLOWING THE SYSTEM STILL ON WEST CAP. THE HIGH CELL
Geopotentials OF MADAGASCAR AND WEAKENING SHOULD BE FANTALA
QUIT TONIGHT.
TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE RIDGE MIDDLE OF EQUATORIAL
TROPOSPHERE MEAN THAT BUILDS NORTHEAST AND FRONT OF
LARGE TROUGH OF MID-LATITUDE, FANTALA SHOULD RE-ACCELERATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
Wednesday and Thursday, ALWAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR RIDGE
EQUATORIAL CITED AND PRE-NEW DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH, THE
TRACK COULD ORIENTATION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY NEW CELL MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE
TROPOSPHERE COULD REBUILD IN MADAGASCAR AND SYSTEM
COULD RESUME AGAIN If FIXING TRACK BEFORE
NORTH-WEST.
THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS
SCENARIO BEFORE MATURITY.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE SLOWDOWN
METEOR, THEN IT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING ON WATER HE ALREADY
Traveled, THEREFORE LESS ENERGY CONTENT, MAY FANTALA
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN IF THE DIFFERENCE IN CONDITIONS
ALTITUDE REMAIN VERY FAVOURABLE.
FROM WEDNESDAY THE DIFFERENCE CONDITIONS ARE IN ALTITUDE
SLIGHTLY LESS GOOD, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND WATER
MORE HOT AND SHOULD REMAIN HIGH INTENSITY.
AFTER LATEST MODELS, VERTICAL SHEAR
WIND SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON THE TRACK
PROVIDED AT END OF ÉCHÉANCWTIO31 FMEE 181238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE OF THE MEETING
ANALYSIS REPORT AND FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 30/8/20152016
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 18/04/2016:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / E 49.3
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0 / 7.5 / 0.5 W / H 6
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 MN): 130 KT
RAY OF MAXIMUM WIND (RVM): 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION BY WINDS QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: SO 240 250 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: SO 110 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE SE 80 80 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE SE 60: 60 SW: 70 NO: 60
7.A / DIAM FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 04/19/2016 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY
INTENSE
24H: 19/04/2016 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
36H: 20/04/2016 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
48H: 20/04/2016 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSE
60H: 21/04/2016 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 21/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B TREND LATER:
96H: 22/04/2016 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 23/04/2016 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C:
T = 7.0-, 7.5- CI =
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS EYE FANTALA REMAINS VERY WELL
DEFINED AND HOT. SUMMITS PERIODS HAVE warmed up slightly.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXCELLENT FLOW ALOFT OUTGOING.
SLOWING THE SYSTEM STILL ON WEST CAP. THE HIGH CELL
Geopotentials OF MADAGASCAR AND WEAKENING SHOULD BE FANTALA
QUIT TONIGHT.
TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DOUBLE RIDGE MIDDLE OF EQUATORIAL
TROPOSPHERE MEAN THAT BUILDS NORTHEAST AND FRONT OF
LARGE TROUGH OF MID-LATITUDE, FANTALA SHOULD RE-ACCELERATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
Wednesday and Thursday, ALWAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR RIDGE
EQUATORIAL CITED AND PRE-NEW DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH, THE
TRACK COULD ORIENTATION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY NEW CELL MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE
TROPOSPHERE COULD REBUILD IN MADAGASCAR AND SYSTEM
COULD RESUME AGAIN If FIXING TRACK BEFORE
NORTH-WEST.
THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS
SCENARIO BEFORE MATURITY.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE SLOWDOWN
METEOR, THEN IT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING ON WATER HE ALREADY
Traveled, THEREFORE LESS ENERGY CONTENT, MAY FANTALA
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY EVEN IF THE DIFFERENCE IN CONDITIONS
ALTITUDE REMAIN VERY FAVOURABLE.
FROM WEDNESDAY THE DIFFERENCE CONDITIONS ARE IN ALTITUDE
SLIGHTLY LESS GOOD, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND WATER
MORE HOT AND SHOULD REMAIN HIGH INTENSITY.
AFTER LATEST MODELS, VERTICAL SHEAR
WIND SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON THE TRACK
PROVIDED AT END OF ÉCHÉANCE

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning #14
Issued at 18/0900Z

Google Earth Overlay

 

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z — NEAR 9.3S 49.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 49.7E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z — 9.3S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z — 9.6S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z — 10.0S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z — 10.8S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 12.6S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 13.3S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z — 13.7S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 783 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISTINCT 16-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY
AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT INTENSITY. AN 180331Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN
INTENSE CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING THE EYE FEATURE WITH A SECOND
CONVECTIVE RING BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN MSI IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 150 KNOTS BASED ON
AN ASSESSMENT OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 19S IT TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IN A VERY
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
INDICATING THAT THE STEERING MECHANISM IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT FROM
THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH TO A BUILDING NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD TC
FANTALA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SSTS AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A
SECOND MID-LATITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH TURNING THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE MULTIPLE TRACK CHANGES. DUE TO THIS
DISAGREEMENT AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN

S Indian Ocean: TSR Storm Alert issued at 18 Apr, 2016 6:00 GMT

Very Intense TC FANTALA is currently located near 9.3 S 49.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 150 kts (173 mph). FANTALA is a category 5 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. FANTALA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Seychelles
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Providence Is. (9.2 S, 51.1 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Antseranana (12.4 S, 49.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Vohimarina (13.3 S, 49.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Images above: TSR)

MARITIME/SHIPPING

WTIO22 FMEE 181228
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/04/2016
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/04/2016 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA) 910 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 49.3 E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR AND IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR
WITHIN OUTER BANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/130 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2016/04/19 AT 00 UTC:
9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2016/04/19 AT 12 UTC:
9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

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