North Atlantic: ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM… …NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES – NHC – Updated 15 Jan 2016 1516z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Alex

…ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…
…NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES…

at201601_5day 1600

Image: @wunderground 5 Day Forecast

at201601_sat_anim 1600

Image: @wunderground Satellite

National Hurricane Center FL US

145558W5_NL_sm.gif

000
WTNT31 KNHC 151455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1100 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016

…ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…
…NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…39.3N 27.0W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM N OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 28 MPH…44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the hurricane
and tropical storm warning for the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
Satellite and surface data indicate that Alex made landfall on the
island of Terceira around 915 AM AST (1315 UTC) as a tropical storm
with an intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 27.0 West. Alex is
moving toward the north near 28 mph (44 km/h) and a turn toward the
north-northwest and northwest is expected over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours. Alex is expected to lose tropical characteristics later
today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 460 miles (740 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are still possible
over portions of the Azores for the next few hours.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Rainfall in association with Alex should diminish across
the Azores this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and waves should gradually diminish
across the Azores today.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 15 Jan, 2016 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ALEX is currently located near 39.3 N 27.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). ALEX is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Azores
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Greenland
        probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ponta Delgada (37.7 N, 25.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

 

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

201601N 1600

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

201601142241_at_graphicast b

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 151454

WTNT21 KNHC 151454
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1500 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT…….150NE 150SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….400NE 300SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 240SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 27.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 45.1N 28.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT…150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…240NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT…420NE 420SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 52.7N 31.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT…120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…240NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…420NE 300SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW.
34 KT…420NE 60SE 60SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 27.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

 

=============================================================================

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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