UK SEVERE WEATHER and FLOOD WARNINGS – Updated 16 Nov 2015 2330z (GMT/UTC)

==UK==

STORM BARNEY

SKYWARN

Severe Weather Alert #54 issued (See below)

Met Office Severe Weather Warnings:

Met Office Weather Warnings for mobile

Highlands & Eilean Siar Yellow Warning

Strathclyde Yellow Warning

London & South East England Yellow Warning

East Midlands Yellow Warning

North West England Yellow Warning

South West England Yellow Warning

Yorkshire & Humber Yellow Warning

Orkney & Shetland Yellow Warning

East of England Yellow Warning

Wales Yellow Warning

West Midlands Yellow Warning

North East England Yellow Warning

(For details follow above links)

 20 Flood Warnings in England and Wales – 6 in Scotland

at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

29 Flood Alerts in England and Wales – 5 in Scotland

at 

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

( Check for interim updates in comments at bottom of page)

Severe Weather Warnings for Europe are now toward the bottom of the page

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SkyWarn UK’s mission is to forecast, report, and record severe weather.

SKYWARN UK CURRENT ALERT (Link)

Severe Weather Alert #54
SWUK has issued a Severe Weather Alert for strong winds in excess of 70mph
Valid from 1300hrs Tuesday 17th November to 0300hrs Wednesday 18th November.
for
South and South Western England & Wales
An easterly moving low pressure system (officially named ‘Barney’ by the MetO) will track across southern UK on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wind gusts could exceed SWUK criteria of 70mph along exposed coasts on the southern flank of the low.
Wales and the Bristol Channel could see gusts of 80mph
Spotters in the alert area are requested to report any breaches of SWUK criteria in the normal manner.

For details on SkyWarn UK’s alert criteria, click HERE.

The Tornado & Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)

The latest Severe Weather Reports from TORRO can be found by following this link:

SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST

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Latest news reports (see bottom of page)

Weather

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

UK Warnings

Warnings

Monday 16 November Published at 16:54

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF WIND for NORTHWEST SCOTLAND

Issued at 10:35 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 11:00 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid until 23:55 on Mon 16 Nov

Southwesterly winds will increase during Monday, when severe gales will affect parts of the northwest mainland of Scotland, the Western Isles and Northern Isles. The strongest winds will initially develop across the Western Isles and northwest coast this afternoon before extending into the Northern Isles during the evening. Winds will quickly ease on Tuesday.

Gusts of wind of 65-75 mph are expected in places, so be aware that there may be some further disruption to travel. Additionally, large waves may cause some overtopping of sea defences.

This an update to the warning issued on Sunday morning.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 10:23 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 10:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Tue 17 Nov

Further rain is expected on Tuesday as a frontal system runs across the UK from the west. The largest accumulations are expected across the hills of northwest England and northwest Wales though low lying areas will also see a period of heavy rain. On the southern side of this system some very strong winds are expected and a separate warning for winds is likely to be issued.

The public should be aware that, given the already saturated conditions, flooding is possible either from standing water or from rivers already swollen by recent rainfall. This could lead to disruption to travel and perhaps localised flooding to properties.

This is a further update to the warning originally issued on Friday, reducing the northern extent of the warning and moving into minor impacts.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW WARNING of WIND for much of WALES and SOUTHERN ENGLAND

Issued at 10:46 on Mon 16 Nov

Valid from 15:00 on Tue 17 Nov

Valid until 23:30 on Tue 17 Nov

West to southwesterly gales and locally severe gales are likely to sweep eastwards across parts of Wales, southern, central and eastern England later on Tuesday. Gusts could reach 60-70 mph inland and possibly 80 mph along exposed coasts, particularly Wales and through the Bristol Channel.

Be aware of the risk of disruption to travel and that gusts of this strength could bring down trees and lead to some damage to weakened structures.

Further updates will appear here.

YELLOW EARLY WARNING OF RAIN for NORTH WALES and NORTH ENGLAND

Issued at 12:17 on Sun 15 Nov

Valid from 16:00 on Wed 18 Nov

Valid until 23:45 on Wed 18 Nov

Another spell of heavy rain, accompanied by gale force winds in places, will cross the country on Wednesday, with largest rainfall over the high ground areas already saturated from recent wet weather. Up to 50 mm is expected in the wettest spots in North Wales and NW England.

The public should be aware of the potential for further impacts such as disruption to travel and local flooding.

Further updates will appear here.

When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings

Northern Ireland: Addition information available from https://www.facebook.com/northernirelandweather?fref=ts

Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.

What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

Peter Gibbs explains sudden stratospheric warming and why it is often linked to outbreaks of cold weather: Sudden stratospheric warming

What is freezing fog?

UK RADAR AND SATELLITE

Surface Analyses & Observations UK and Europe

https://embed.windyty.com/?surface,wind,now,53.801,3.076,4,,menu,,

Animated map of global wind conditions

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BE READY FOR BAD WEATHER and other emergencies – Advice and resources

News at bottom of page

FLOOD WARNINGS & ALERTS

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNING currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

• Three day flood risk forecast
• River and sea levels
• Floodline Warnings Direct – FREE flood warning service
• Flood warnings on Facebook
• Live Flood Warning map
• Flood warning codes explained

There are NO SEVERE FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

• Live flood updates
• Flood maps

	Flood Warning Flooding is expected. Immediate action required

There are 20 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618.aspx

There are 6 FLOOD WARNINGS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

• Live flood updates

• Flood maps

	Flood AlertFlooding is possible. Be prepared.

There are 29 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in England & Wales at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

• Three day flood risk forecast
• River and sea levels
• Floodline Warnings Direct – FREE flood warning service
• Flood warnings on Facebook
• Live Flood Warning map
• Flood warning codes explained

There are 5 FLOOD ALERTS currently in force in Scotland at

22:52 on 16 Nov 2015 GMT

• Live flood updates
• Flood maps

About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline 0845 988 1188

Coastal Forecast

A 24 hour weather forecast for 24 UK coastal areas

Tide Tables

Tidal information supplied by the UK Hydrographic Office

Inshore Waters

There are strong wind warnings in 19 areas.

There is a gale warning in 1 area.

The next few days will be dominated by severeal areas of low pressure tracking across the British Isles bringing strong winds, large waves and changeable weather to all parts.

Shipping Forecast

There are gale warnings in 29 areas.

The general synopsis at midday

Low Bailey 964 expected Norwegian Basin 973 by midday tomorrow. New low expected Shannon 983 by same time.

Extended Outlook

The Extended Outlook aims to signpost expected hazards for the Cullercoats, Niton and Portpatrick areas for the three days beyond the 24 hour shipping forecast.

High Seas

There are storm warnings in 8 areas.

The general synopsis at 16 November 20:00 UTC

At 161200UTC low 60 north 13 west 964 expected 63 north 02 east 973 by 171200UTC. Low 48 north 39 west 987 expected 53 north 12 west 983 by same time. Low 50 north 20 west 998 losing its identity by that time. New low moving slowly east expected 53 north 32 west 988 by 171200UTC

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/maps/britisles/mappage.htm

Avalanche Information for the Scottish Mountains (SAIS)

Avalanche Information Service publish the daily forecasts of the avalanche, snow, and mountain conditions at the 5 most popular areas of Scotland during the season.

Latest Forecasts:

• Creag Meagaidh
• Glencoe
• Lochaber
• Northern Cairngorms
• Southern Cairngorms

Report an avalanche now

Mountain Weather Information Service

MWIS currently produce forecasts for 8 different mountain areas of the UK as an aid to mountain safety.

Forecasts are produced manually using information from a range of forecast models and forecasters knowledge of mountain weather. New forecasts, for the next three days are produced by 4:30pm daily, normally earlier in the winter, and amended as necessary.

http://www.mwis.org.uk/

===============================================

News Reports

Storm Barney to hit UK with winds of up to 80mph

Winds of up to 80mph look set to hit parts of the UK as the second storm to be named by the public – Storm Barney – sweeps in this week.

Yellow “be aware” warnings for wind have been issued for Wales, along with southern, central and eastern England on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

It comes as heavy rain brought flooding to parts of England and Wales.

Rivers burst their banks in Cumbria over the weekend with roads, farmland and train services affected.

In mid and north Wales, train services have been disrupted due to flooding.

Low pressure

The Met Office said gusts could reach 70mph inland and up to 80mph along exposed coastal areas, particularly in Wales and through the Bristol Channel, on Tuesday.

Forecasters said the unsettled weather was the result of a series of low pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic.

North-west Scotland, meanwhile, could see severe gales on Monday, with warnings of gusts of up to 75mph.

The Met Office said in Scotland the strongest winds would initially develop across the Western Isles and north-west coast before extending into the Northern Isles during the evening and easing on Tuesday.

More flooding and disruption could be caused when heavy rain falls on already saturated ground in the next few days, the Met Office also warned.

• Up-to-date information on weather warnings and a live flood warning map can be found on the BBC website

The Environment Agency said the overall flood risk remained low and the number of flood warnings was decreasing – but gale-force winds were expected to produce large waves which could top coastal defences, and river levels will remain high over the next week.

Craig Woolhouse, of the EA, urged people to remain alert to the risk and “stay away from raging rivers”.

“With so much standing water around, we ask people to stay out of flood water and not attempt to walk or drive through it,” he added.

Widespread damage

Barney is the second storm considered strong enough to be given a name under a new “name our storms” campaign between the Met Office and Met Eireann.

Storm Abigail caused widespread damage last week, leaving more than 20,000 homes without power and forcing schools to close in Shetland and the Western Isles.

The Highlands and Islands were worst hit by gusts of 84mph, while the rest of the UK experienced thundery showers, gales and flooding

Forecasters say there is due to be a change in the weather at the end of the week, with colder air spreading from the north and bringing wintry showers to northern parts of the UK, particularly over the hills.

Monday 16 November Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Turning colder at times – and not so wet

Wet, windy and unusually mild sums up the first half of November for most parts of the UK, although as often happens with these spells of disturbed south-westerly winds the south east of England has escaped with much less rain than elsewhere. The last week has featured both Abigail and Kate – Abigail being the first winter storm in the new Met Office naming scheme, which brought severe gales to N and NW Scotland. Meanwhile the warmth and moisture which were the remnants of Hurricane Kate, swept across the Atlantic and contributed to the worst of this month’s rainfall over the weekend. Parts of Cumbria saw over 200 mm of rain over that period, and so far this month Capel Curig in Snowdonia has received more than 330 mm of rain.

Monday 16 November—Sunday 22 November

More rain and strong winds – colder by the weekend

For most of the week, the spell of very unsettled weather will continue unabated. Severe gales will affect NW Scotland on Monday while most places have a cooler day of sunshine and showers. Further bursts of rain, heavy in places, will spread across England, Wales and Northern Ireland on Monday night and on Tuesday. There will be gales for a time in the south, while Scotland remains in cooler, showery weather. Yet another low pressure system will sweep in on Wednesday, this one dumping most of its rain over Scotland and Northern Ireland, but also threatening N Wales and NW England again. Thursday and Friday will be brighter but windy with showers, and by Friday much colder air will be moving into northern Scotland with showers there turning to snow. The week ends with this much colder air extending south to all parts on Saturday, with a scattering of wintry showers and some sunshine in many areas, so giving a completely different feel to the weekend just gone.

Monday 23 November—Sunday 29 November

Cold start but will it last long?

The last week of November will begin with cold air over the whole country and with sleet or snow showers in some parts – chiefly over Scotland.There will be sunshine by day and frost is likely overnight. Cloudy, milder weather with some rain is expected to return by Tuesday or Wednesday. Beyond that, there could well be a swing back to brighter, showery weather with northerly winds again. But this return to colder weather is also set to be short-lived as we look to the Atlantic for another change.

Monday 30 November—Sunday 13 December

Typical early winter variability

After the likelihood of a couple of settled days around the turn of the month, a return to unsettled weather is expected in the first week of December, with a mixture of rain and showers. With sometimes large fluctuations in temperature forecast, some snow can be expected over high ground at least – particularly in Scotland. The north will have strong winds at times, with gales likely in the northwest. The south is likely to turn more settled again for a while, allowing overnight frost and fog in any calmer periods. For the fortnight as a whole, temperatures are expected to average out around the normal, but the north may be on the cold side.

Next week

Is there any hint of a prolonged mild or cold spell for December?

Monthly forecasting

The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

Next update at 10:00, Monday 23 November

Monthly Outlook

End

*Europe Severe Weather Warnings*

White:
Missing, insufficient, outdated or suspicious data.Green:
No particular awareness of the weather is required.Yellow:
The weather is potentially dangerous. The weather phenomena that have been forecast are not unusual, but be attentive if you intend to practice activities exposed to meteorological risks. Keep informed about the expected meteorological conditions and do not take any avoidable risk.Orange:
The weather is dangerous. Unusual meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Damage and casualties are likely to happen. Be very vigilant and keep regularly informed about the detailed expected meteorological conditions. Be aware of the risks that might be unavoidable. Follow any advice given by your authorities.Red:
The weather is very dangerous. Exceptionally intense meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Major damage and accidents are likely, in many cases with threat to life and limb, over a wide area. Keep frequently informed about detailed expected meteorological conditions and risks. Follow orders and any advice given by your authorities under all circumstances, be prepared for extraordinary measures.

European Storm Forecast Experiment

The European Storm Forecast Experiment is an initiative of a team of European meteorologists, and students in meteorology, and serves as a platform for exchange of knowledge about forecasting severe convective storms in Europe and elsewhere.

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 Nov 2015 06:00 to Wed 18 Nov 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Nov 2015 22:35
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

A level 2 was issued for the Benelux countries, a large part of Germany, the NW Czech Republic and W Poland mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for and area surrounding the level 1, including S Ireland, the S United Kingdom, larger parts of Poland and the Czech Republic, all of Germany and parts of Denmark, France, Switzerland, and Austria, mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

See more (click here)

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 16 Nov 2015 06:00 to Tue 17 Nov 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 15 Nov 2015 23:06
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for southern Ireland mainly for chances of a tornado and severe wind gusts.

See more (click here)

Satellite: Europe

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.