CANADA (Newfoundland): Tropical Storm Henri 11/1800Z nr 39.4 N 58.5 W, moving NNE 16 knots (CHC) – Published 11 Sept 2015 1905z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Storm Henri

Weak tropical storm Henri forecast to affect offshore NEWFOUNDLAND, CANADA waters tonight and Saturday (ADT) (CHC)

…HENRI LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC…NHC FL

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 Day Forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA

2:45 PM ADT Friday 11 September 2015
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND

For tropical storm Henri.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.

Weak tropical storm Henri forecast to affect offshore waters tonight and Saturday.

1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 PM ADT.

Location: 39.4 north 58.5 west.

About 900 kilometres south-southwest of Cape Race.

Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/hour.

Present movement: north at 30 km/hour.

Minimum central pressure: 1008 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

It continues to appear that Henri will be primarily a marine system moving south of Newfoundland. Closest approach to land will be the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland. There is a possibility that the system might dissipate as it moves away from the warm gulf stream waters which would result in very little impact.

A. Wind.

Wind is not likely to be an issue if the track stays offshore. If Henri tracks close to or over land there may be some gusty winds near 70 km/h over portions of the Avalon but not likely to be of concern for most areas unless the system strengthens more than expected tonight.

B. Rainfall.

Southeast Newfoundland could receive a bout of heavy rain early Saturday. It is still difficult to say how much rain may fall from it because it will depend on the storm structure overnight. Amounts of 20 to 40 millimetres are likely over far-Southeast Newfoundland early Saturday.

C. Surge/waves.

Some moderate surf could develop over southern coastal Newfoundland early Saturday if the system strengthens but this is unlikely.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Interests in eastern maritime waters and Southern Newfoundland waters should keep an eye on these forecasts for updated predictions. The system will bring gale force winds starting this evening and continuing into Saturday. The highest winds will be near and south of the storm track from the Laurentian Fan into the Grand Banks. Sea state of 3 to 5 metres will develop Saturday.

Visit weather.gc.ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:

– forecast position, central pressure table.

– strength and predicted wind radii table.

– hurricane track information map.

– technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): fogarty/patton

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

FXCN31 CWHX 111800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.53 PM ADT
FRIDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2015.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT, TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 N
AND LONGITUDE 58.5 W, ABOUT 496 NAUTICAL MILES OR 919 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS (65 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1008 MB. HENRI IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS (30 KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 11 3.00 PM 39.4N 58.5W 1008 35 65
SEP 11 9.00 PM 41.2N 57.7W 1007 35 65
SEP 12 3.00 AM 43.2N 56.3W 1006 35 65
SEP 12 9.00 AM 44.9N 54.5W 1005 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 3.00 PM 46.7N 51.8W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 9.00 PM 47.5N 48.4W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 13 3.00 AM 47.7N 44.1W 1002 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTRE AND THE
NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW INCREASING. MAXIMUM WINDS TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS ARE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE CENTRE.

B. PROGNOSTIC

STRONG RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL DIRECT THE STORM NORTHWARD THEN
EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. HENRI SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SATURDAY AND MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 35 KT AS HENRI
ENTERS THE LAURENTIAN FAN AND PERSIST AS IT CROSSES NEWFOUNDLAND
WATERS.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
11/18Z 120 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12/00Z 120 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12/06Z 120 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12/12Z 105 180 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12/18Z 100 180 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13/00Z 60 180 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/FOGARTY/PATTON

Canadian Hurricane Centre symbolLegend

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 37 to 62 kilometres per hourTropical Depression

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 118 kilometres per hourHurricane

Icon for a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 63 to 117 kilometres per hourTropical Storm

Icon for a storm system that used to be tropical but has since lost most of its tropical characteristicsPost-Tropical Storm

National Weather ServiceNational Hurricane Center[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 111455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015

…HENRI LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…38.0N 59.4W
ABOUT 680 MI…1095 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 59.4 West. Henri is
moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). An increase
in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast by Sunday with some additional acceleration.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours. Henri is forecast to become post-tropical on Saturday,
however, Henri could dissipate later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

TSR N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2015 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HENRI (AL08) currently located near 38.0 N 59.4 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St John’s (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA4 / HURRICANE_ADVISORY / 1455

WTNT23 KNHC 111455
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 59.4W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 59.4W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 41.0N 57.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 44.9N 54.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 48.0N 48.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT…60NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 50.0N 42.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 59.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

CANADA

Region(s) with marine warnings in effect:
Arctic – Eastern Arctic
Arctic – Western Arctic
Atlantic – Maritimes
Atlantic – Newfoundland
Great Lakes – Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
Great Lakes – Lake Huron
Great Lakes – Lake Superior
Hudson – Hudson Bay
Mackenzie – Mackenzie River
Pacific – Georgia Basin
Pacific – South Coast
Prairies – Manitoba Lakes
St. Lawrence – St. Lawrence River

There are more warnings here:  METAREA IV

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

2 thoughts on “CANADA (Newfoundland): Tropical Storm Henri 11/1800Z nr 39.4 N 58.5 W, moving NNE 16 knots (CHC) – Published 11 Sept 2015 1905z (GMT/UTC)

  1. WOCN31 CWHX 111745
    TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
    HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:04 PM ADT FRIDAY
    11 SEPTEMBER 2015.
    ———————————————————————
    TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
    NEWFOUNDLAND.

    FOR TROPICAL STORM HENRI.

    THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT.

    WEAK TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST TO AFFECT OFFSHORE WATERS
    TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

    ———————————————————————
    ==DISCUSSION==
    1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3.00 PM ADT.

    LOCATION: 39.4 NORTH 58.5 WEST.

    ABOUT 900 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KM/HOUR.

    PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH AT 30 KM/HOUR.

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 MB.

    2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

    IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT HENRI WILL BE PRIMARILY A MARINE SYSTEM
    MOVING SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. CLOSEST APPROACH TO LAND WILL BE THE
    AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
    SYSTEM MIGHT DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE WARM GULF STREAM
    WATERS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN VERY LITTLE IMPACT.

    A. WIND.

    WIND IS NOT LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE IF THE TRACK STAYS OFFSHORE.
    IF HENRI TRACKS CLOSE TO OR OVER LAND THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS
    NEAR 70 KM/H OVER PORTIONS OF THE AVALON BUT NOT LIKELY TO BE OF
    CONCERN FOR MOST AREAS UNLESS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN
    EXPECTED TONIGHT.

    B. RAINFALL.

    SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND COULD RECEIVE A BOUT OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY
    SATURDAY. IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH RAIN MAY FALL FROM
    IT BECAUSE IT WILL DEPEND ON THE STORM STRUCTURE OVERNIGHT.
    AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 40 MILLIMETRES ARE LIKELY OVER FAR-SOUTHEAST
    NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SATURDAY.

    C. SURGE/WAVES.

    SOME MODERATE SURF COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL NEWFOUNDLAND
    EARLY SATURDAY IF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY.

    3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

    INTERESTS IN EASTERN MARITIME WATERS AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS
    SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THESE FORECASTS FOR UPDATED PREDICTIONS.
    THE SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS STARTING THIS EVENING AND
    CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH
    OF THE STORM TRACK FROM THE LAURENTIAN FAN INTO THE GRAND BANKS.
    SEA STATE OF 3 TO 5 METRES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY.

    VISIT WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST:

    – FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

    – STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

    – HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

    – TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

    PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
    ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

    END/FOGARTY/PATTON

    Like

  2. 000
    WTNT43 KNHC 112033
    TCDAT3

    REMNANTS OF HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
    500 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2015

    Henri is no longer a tropical cyclone. Visible images clearly show
    that Henri lacks a well-defined center, with scatterometer and
    satellite data also suggesting the circulation has degraded into a
    southeast-to-northwest oriented trough. The scatterometer did show
    a small area of 35-kt winds, so that intensity is kept.

    The remnants of Henri are expected to trek northeastward then
    eastward over the North Atlantic and should transition into an
    extratropical low on Saturday. Future information on this system
    can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
    Service Ocean Prediction Center…under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
    WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 11/2100Z 40.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…REMNANTS OF HENRI
    12H 12/0600Z…DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Blake

    Like

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