India/ Bangladesh: Depression over NE Bay of Bengal & coast areas of Bangladesh & W Bengal may become Deep Depression in 24 hrs (RSMC New Delhi) – Published 270715 1035z (GMT/UTC)

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre - Tropical Cyclones, India Meteorological Department - Government of IndiaRegional Specialized Meteorological Centre
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE

TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 27072015

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN
SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 27072015
BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 27 July, 2015
THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING COASTAL AREAS OF
BANGLADESH & WEST BENGAL
REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 15HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT
0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 27 JULY 2015 NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 90.2 EAST, CLOSE TO WEST OF KHEPUPARA
(41960). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR SOME MORE TIME AND MAY CONCENTRATE INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION

DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CI. 1.5  PATTERN IS SHEAR PATTERN
.
DISTANCE BETWEEN CENTRE AND CLOUD MASS IS NEARLY 100 KMS.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVEC
TION OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL
.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 27TH JULY 2015.
(DUTY OFFICER)
RSMC, NEW DELHI

mapimage

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abiosair.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 270000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/270000Z-271800ZJUL2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.3N 90.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 69 NM WEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE BANGLADESH COASTLINE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE BAY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE 850 MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. A 261533Z ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS REVEALED 30 KNOT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE;
HOWEVER, FUTHER ORGANIZATION IS HAMPERED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) IN ADDITION TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE INTO INDIA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IF THE DISTURBANCE WERE TO TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH,
THE WARM WATERS OF THE BAY AND GOOD OUTFLOW MAY ALLOW FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A MEDIUM//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

FQIN01 DEMS 270900
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 27 JULY 2015
—————————————————-
PART I:- NO STORM WARNING

PART II:-THE DEPRESSION OVER NE-BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJ.
COASTAL AREAS OF BAGLA DESH AND WEST BENGAL MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST -WARDS AND LAY CENTERED NEAR LAT 22.0 DEG N/
LONG 90.2 DEG E(.)SYSTEM WOULD REMAIN PRACTICALY STATIONRY
FOR SOME MORE TIMES AND MAY CONCENTRATE INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HRS.(.)

AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AT MSL RUNS FROM KARNATAKA COAST TO
KERALA COAST PERSISTS(.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N)
—————————————————
A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E:-S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- 6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)1-2 M(.)

A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N(.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 70 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E:WSW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)2-3 M(.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
1)W OF 70 DEG E:SW-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
2)E OF 70 DEG E:WSW-LY 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-4-3 NM TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)REST AREA 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1)3-4 M 2)2-3 M(.)

A3-BAY OF BENGAL:EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR(.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-SSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-SSW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-6-4 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

BOB: A4:- BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS:-
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-
SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 18 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-1-2 M(.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:-CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY:-3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:-3-4 M(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

METAREA VIII_N

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