Australia (NT): Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nathan 18P – Updated 240315 1715z (GMT/UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nathan

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

IDA00041 N24

NT

Details for: Ex-TC Nathan

Australia National Weather Warnings Summary. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

sh1815 N24

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/18P_040532sams.jpg

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
240600Z — NEAR 12.5S 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 132.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z — 12.7S 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 132.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NATHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18P HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK INLAND OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPOSED, BROADENING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
SOUTHEASTWARD. RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE DARWIN RADAR PROVIDES FURTHER
EVIDENCE OF THE WEAKENED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH BROAD, FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER. MULTIPLE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
(ADJUSTED TO 1-MINUTE AVERAGE) OF ONLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE MOST RECENT DARWIN SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THROUGH
THE COLUMN WHILE THE LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES
DRY AIR ADVECTING ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO LOCATED UNDER NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. THERFORE, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 48 WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 60 TO 72 AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

TSR logoSW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 24 Mar, 2015 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression NATHAN (18P) currently located near 12.5 S 132.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for TS is 70% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Oenpelli (12.3 S, 133.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

(Image: TSR)

(Image: TSR)

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA10 / WARNING_WESTERN_DARWIN / 1235

WOAU03 AMMC 241235
IDY21020
40:3:1:04:55S075E35060:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BNOC
AT 1235UTC 24 MARCH 2015
GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN AREA
PLEASE BE AWARE
WIND GUSTS CAN BE 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE,
AND MAXIMUM
WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.
SITUATION
VIGOROUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT FORECAST NEAR 44S076E 50S088E AT 241800UTC, 44S077E
50S090E AT
250001UTC, 43S080E 50S093E AT 250600UTC AND 43S084E 46S091E 50S096E
AT
251200UTC.
AREA AFFECTED
BOUNDED BY 46S080E 50S091E 50S101E 44S097E 43S092E 43S080E 46S080E.
FORECAST
W/NW WINDS 30/40 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 240NM EAST OF COLD FRONT
AFTER
241800UTC AND EXTENDING TO WITHIN 360NM EAST OF COLD FRONT BY
250600UTC.
W/SW WINDS 30/40 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 120NM SOUTHWEST OF COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF
45S BY 250600UTC.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELL.
WEATHER MELBOURNE=

Further warnings here: METAREA X

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website: http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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