Australia (QLD): Tropical Cyclone Marcia 13P 20/2000 EST nr 24.3S 150.9E, moving SSE at 18 km/h – BoM – Updated 200215 1238z (GMT/UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Marcia 13P

Warning zone: Rockhampton to Double Island Point, extending inland to Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera

Watch zone: None.

Cyclone Marcia downgraded to Intensity Category 1, moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia. – BoM

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast

sp201513_sat_anim

Image: wunderground.com) Satellite

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology

M

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Marcia

Issued at 7:51 pm EST Friday 20 February 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 39.

QLD track

Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Strong Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Headline:

Cyclone Marcia downgraded to category 1, moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Rockhampton to Double Island Point, extending inland to Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera
.

Watch zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 8:00 pm EST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 24.3 degrees South, 150.9 degrees East , 65 kilometres southwest of Gladstone and 40 kilometres east northeast of Biloela .
Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour .

Tropical cyclone Marcia has weakened to a category 1 cyclone, and is moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia district while continuing to weaken. It is expected to weaken below cyclone strength tonight.

Destructive winds are no longer expected at Biloela. Damaging wind gusts to about 120 km/h are still possible over the next couple of hours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current south of Double Island Point and inland to the southern Burnett and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 120 km/h are expected about the coast and adjacent inland between Rockhampton and Double Island Point tonight, including Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera.

Abnormally high tides will be experienced between Gladstone and Double Island Point with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide, even though the cyclone is inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible.

Dangerous surf is also expected.

Heavy rainfall is already occurring about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Gladstone and Double Island Point, and is expected to continue tonight and Saturday morning as the cyclone moves south. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Recommended Action:

People between Rockhamton and Double Island Point and adjacent inland areas including Biloela, Monto and Mundubbera should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 11 pm.
– Information is available from your local government
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:

Time (EST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 pm February 20 1 24.3S 150.9E 30
+6hr 2 am February 21 tropical low 25.1S 151.2E 30
+12hr 8 am February 21 tropical low 25.9S 151.7E 55
+18hr 2 pm February 21 tropical low 26.6S 152.2E 80
+24hr 8 pm February 21 tropical low 27.3S 152.9E 100
+36hr 8 am February 22 tropical low 28.3S 154.2E 135
+48hr 8 pm February 22 tropical low 28.7S 155.4E 170
+60hr 8 am February 23 tropical low 28.8S 156.5E 210
+72hr 8 pm February 23 tropical low 28.4S 157.4E 245

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday

 Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

IDQ20023

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39
Issued at 7:51 pm EST on Friday 20 February 2015

Headline:
Cyclone Marcia downgraded to category 1, moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Rockhampton to Double Island Point, extending inland to Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera

Watch Zone
None

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 8:00 pm EST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 24.3 degrees South 150.9 degrees East, estimated to be 65 kilometres southwest of Gladstone and 40 kilometres east northeast of Biloela.

Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour.

 

Tropical cyclone Marcia has weakened to a category 1 cyclone, and is moving south-southeast over the southern Capricornia district while continuing to weaken. It is expected to weaken below cyclone strength tonight.

 

Destructive winds are no longer expected at Biloela. Damaging wind gusts to about 120 km/h are still possible over the next couple of hours.

 

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current south of Double Island Point and inland to the southern Burnett and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 120 km/h are expected about the coast and adjacent inland between Rockhampton and Double Island Point tonight, including Biloela, Monto, and Mundubbera.

 

Abnormally high tides will be experienced between Gladstone and Double Island Point with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide, even though the cyclone is inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible.

 

Dangerous surf is also expected.

 

Heavy rainfall is already occurring about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Gladstone and Double Island Point, and is expected to continue tonight and Saturday morning as the cyclone moves south. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Recommended Action:
People between Rockhamton and Double Island Point and adjacent inland areas including Biloela, Monto and Mundubbera should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 11 pm.

– Information is available from your local government

– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

– For emergency assistance call the State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday 20 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau’s website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Australia Severe Weather Warnings (link)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

 

sh1315

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/13P_200532sams.jpg

 

 

WTPS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
200600Z — NEAR 23.8S 150.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 150.6E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z — 25.4S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z — 26.9S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z — 28.1S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z — 28.6S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL

REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 150.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (MARCIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
13P MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 19/2200Z AND HAS STARTED TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS DRAGGED ACROSS LAND. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM GLADSTONE, AUSTRALIA, ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE EYE
FEATURE HAS DISSOLVED AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS STARTED TO OPEN WHILE THE REMAINING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
STARTED TO WARM AND BREAK APART. THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE UNRAVELING NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA AND DUE TO THE
DECREASING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DECREASING
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ASSESSED AT MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS, AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ADDITIONALLY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, IS
BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EAST AND PRESS ON THE SYSTEM. TC MARCIA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DUE
TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND AND THE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CORAL SEA NEAR BRISBANE AS A WEAK (<30 KNOTS) SUBTROPICAL LOW WHILE
THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINAL (24 TO 26
DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT FAVOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

 

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0618UTC 20 FEBRUARY 2015

GALE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia was centred over land within 10
nautical miles of
latitude twenty three decimal eight south (23.8S)
longitude one hundred and fifty decimal seven east (150.7E)
Recent movement : south at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 65 knots
Central pressure: 975 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within area 23S 151E to 23S 153E to 26S 155E to 26S 153E

FORECAST
NW/NE winds 34 to 47 knots with rough to very rough seas. Winds easing below 34
knots by 202000UTC.
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 20 February: Within 30 nautical miles of 25.4 south 151.3 east over
land
At 0600 UTC 21 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 26.9 south 152.4 east over
land

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 20 February 2015.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Further warnings here:

METAREA X
METAREA XI

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

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