South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 03S BAKUNG 122100Z POSITION nr 10.3S 91.0E, moving WSW at 8knots (JTWC) – Updated 121214 2123z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S BAKUNG

(Warning: Images not updating despite being correct on edit, click on most images to go to source. Check comments for interim updates,)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source) 

 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0315.gif

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/03S_121730sair.jpg

 

 

WTXS31 PGTW 122100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
121800Z — NEAR 10.2S 91.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 245 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 91.4E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z — 10.5S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z — 10.7S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z — 10.7S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z — 10.7S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z — 10.6S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z — 11.1S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z — 11.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 91.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPENED CONVECTION OBSCURING A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 121557Z ASCAT AND 1556 METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND MORE INTENSE
(40 KNOT) WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE IR LOOP, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND WIIX AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC BAKUNG IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE,
ALLOWING TC 03S TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 72, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD
AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SYSTEM TURNING EQUATORWARD
PRIOR TO ITS NORTHERLY DIVE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (WITHOUT
GFS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

 

NASA’s Hurricane Web Page

SO. INDIAN OCEAN *Full Update* NASA’s Watches Tropical Cyclone Bakung Over Open Ocean
Bakung is moving in a westerly direction over the open waters of the S. Indian Ocean and Aqua captured an image of the sea storm.
STORY: http://www.nasa.gov/c…/goddard/bakung-southern-indian-ocean/

Bakung is moving in a westerly direction over the open waters of the…
nasa.gov

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA VIII_N
METAREA VIII_S

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