Philippines: Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 1422 22W 082100Z POSITION nr 14.0N 120.4E, moving WNW 05 knots(JTWC) – Updated – 081214 2130z (GMT/UTC)

TROPICAL STORM 1422 (HAGUPIT) – JMA

(Now lower than CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

 TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) – JTWC

Philippines beware!!

(Warning: Images not updating despite being correct on edit, click on most images to go to source. Check comments for interim updates,)

Japan Meteorological agency

1422

TS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 8 December 2014

<Analyses at 08/18 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°50′(13.8°)
E120°50′(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°05′(14.1°)
E119°00′(119.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N14°05′(14.1°)
E116°55′(116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N13°30′(13.5°)
E112°30′(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N11°40′(11.7°)
E108°10′(108.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2214.gif

https://i0.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/22W_081732sair.jpg

 

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
081800Z — NEAR 14.0N 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 120.8E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z — 14.2N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z — 14.1N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z — 13.9N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z — 13.5N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z — 12.2N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z — 10.1N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 120.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z,
090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

Prognostic Reasoning

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Dec, 201418:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HAGUPIT (22W) currently located near 14.0 N 120.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

Storm Tracker Map

Western Pacific Weather

Find A Shelter in Your Area, Typhoon Hagupit Interactive Map (link)

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Ruby) in Southern Luzon | Afternoon Video Update

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) is now moving near the province of Batangas and could make landfall near the town of Laiya according to PAGASA. While Signal #3 warnings have been lowered by the agency, Signal #2 is still in effect in many areas, including Metro Manila. Bands of heavy rains and strong winds will

Read More…

Tropical Storm 22W HAGUPIT (Ruby) continues its trek across the Philippines. Manila braces for impact.

Monday morning in the WPAC region and tropical storm HAGUPIT, named “Ruby” by the Philippine’s MET service, PAGASA, continues to weaken and work its way to the NW across the Philippine archipelago this morning. The latest information at 08/03z from the JTWC is as follows: Position:              13.4N, 122.4E Location:             126 nm (233km) SE of Manila, Philippines

Read More…

Severe Tropical Storm Hagupit wobbling over the Philippines

Hagupit continues to track west across the Philippines Monday morning bringing wide spread heavy rainfall to southern Luzon and Northern Visayas.  At least two deaths have been officially reported at the time of this update. We have also seen unconfirmed reports in social media but we will wait for casualty reports from the NDRRMC here.

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Typhoon Hagupit / Rudy Live Webcast

Feel free to ask questions or comments in this live update prior to landfall of Typhoon Hagupit..

Below are some useful “Stay Alive” tips if you wanna ride out a Typhoon:

1. Pruning of large and tall trees will make you safe from damage, reinforce vulnerable ones to the ground if necessary. Keep them away from power lines;

2. Make sure roofing are sturdy to withstand powerful wind and rain. Ensure doors and windows are water tight;

3. Clear your property from potentially dangerous debris becoming airborne during high wind;

4. Free water ways from debris to avoid backing up flood waters towards river estuaries in case of torrential rains associated with the system;

5. Stay clear from the immediate coasts and low-lying areas to avoid being caught up by raging waters. Watchout for landslips if you live near steep elevations;

6. Secure food stocks, adequate potable water supply and medications. Do not forget to safely shelter dogs and other beloved animal companion indoor. Be humane enough. You don’t wanna keep them cold outside in a storm;

7. Keep emergency numbers at hand and orient family members what to do before, during and after the storm. Charge handheld radios, cellular phones and extra battery before electricity is cut from the grid;

8. Listen to emergency broadcast via battery-powered portable radio. Lights would definitely go out during the storm, so you wanna make sure you got emergency lights and torch lights in handy;

9. Keep calm and pray for the Typhoon to come to past safely in your vicinity. We’ll ride out the storm safely.

NEWS

Philippine capital braces for storm, as Hagupit leaves 27 dead

Typhoon death toll rises after storm tears through central islands flattening homes and toppling trees

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 081800

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1422 HAGUPIT (1422) 992 HPA
AT 13.8N 120.8E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 14.1N 119.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 14.1N 116.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 13.5N 112.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 11.7N 108.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

15 thoughts on “Philippines: Tropical Storm HAGUPIT 1422 22W 082100Z POSITION nr 14.0N 120.4E, moving WNW 05 knots(JTWC) – Updated – 081214 2130z (GMT/UTC)

  1. TSR NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 6 Dec, 2014 12:00 GMT

    Typhoon HAGUPIT (22W) currently located near 12.0 N 125.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    San Juan (10.3 N, 125.2 E)
    probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Like

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