South China Sea/ Vietnam: Severe Tropical Storm SINLAKU (1421/21W) 291500Z 13.5N 109.7E, moving WNW at 10 knots (RSMC Tokyo) – Published 1756z (GMT/UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm SINLAKU (21W)

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(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Japan Meteorological agency

1421

STS 1421 (SINLAKU)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 29 November 2014

<Analyses at 29/15 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
Center position N13°30′(13.5°)
E109°40′(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 30/03 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°00′(14.0°)
E107°20′(107.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 30/15 UTC>
Intensity
TD
Center position of probability circle N13°55′(13.9°)
E105°00′(105.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2114.gif

https://i2.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/21W_291132sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
291200Z — NEAR 13.3N 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 110.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 13.7N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 13.7N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 109.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z,
300300Z AND 300900Z.//
NNNN

TSR logo

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Nov, 2014 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SINLAKU (21W) currently located near 13.3 N 110.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Tracker Map

MARITIME/SHIPPING

METAREA11 / TYPHOON_WARNING_JAPAN / 1500

WTJP31 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1421 SINLAKU (1421) 990 HPA
AT 13.5N 109.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 14.0N 107.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 13.9N 105.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

There are other messages here: METAREA XI

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