Oman /Pakistan /India /Arabian Sea: Tropical Cyclone NILOFAR 04A 271500Z near 15.2N 62.2E, moving WNW at 2 knots (JTWC) – Updated 271014 1502z (UTC/GMT)

Tropical Cyclone Four (04A)/ VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM ‘NILOFAR’

(Equivalent to CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

(Image: wunderground.com) 5 day forecast (Click image for source)

(Image: wunderground.com) Satellite (Click image for source)

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

https://i0.wp.com/www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/graphics/tcacgraphic.png

More here:

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en#

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

https://i1.wp.com/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0414.gif

WTIO31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (NILOFAR) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (NILOFAR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

WARNING POSITION:
271200Z — NEAR 15.0N 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 62.3E

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z — 15.7N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 16.7N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 17.6N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z — 18.7N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 20.5N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z — 22.7N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 12 KTS

120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z — 24.9N 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (NILOFAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD
FILLED WHILE THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED
STEADY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS EYE FEATURE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75
KNOTS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT NOW
RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 04A HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MODIFYING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CREST
THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 36 AND THEN ACCELERATE TOWARDS WESTERN
INDIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DRY AIR INTRUSION COULD
HAMPER THESE POSITIVE EFFECTS. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS INDUCED
BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING PROCESS WHICH
WILL BE ADDED BY LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, SOME OF THE MODELS (NAMELY COAMPS-TC AND
EGRR) HAVE BECOME ERRATIC AFTERWARDS AS THE TRACKERS HAVE STARTED TO
LOSE VORTEX IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THIS COULD BE AN INDICATION OF
STRONGER VWS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH COULD INDUCE A
FASTER THAN EXPECTED WEAKENING. THIS ERRATIC TRACK DOES APPEAR
ERRONEOUS AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. DESPITE THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, BUT
FASTER THAN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TO OFFSET THESE ERRATIC TRACKS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

MARITIME/ SHIPPING

METAREA9 / HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST / 1059

WWPK20 OPKC 271059 CCA
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FOR MET AREA IX
VALID FOR 24 HOURS COMMENCING FROM 0700UTC DATED 27-10-2014
BY PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
PART -I THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘NILOFAR’ OVER CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN
SEA HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED INTO SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM, MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0300 UTC OF 27TH OCTOBER, 2014 NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 N AND LONGITUDE 62.00 E, ABOUT 1230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KARACHI AND 880 KM EAST-
SOUTHEASTOF SALALAH. IT WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HRS AND WOULD MOVE INITIALLY NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS
AND CROSS NORTH GUJRAT AND ADJOINING PAKISTAN COAST BY 31ST OCTOBER.
PART – II: THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY
INTO VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HRS. SEA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL.
PART -III: FORECASTS:

SUB AREA NO.1 NORTH ARABIAN SEA
I. WIND SE/SW’LY 10-15KTS GUSTING 20KTS NORTH OF 24ºN.
E/NE’LY 17-21KTS GUSTING 27KTS SOUTH OF 24ºN.
II. WEATHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM RAIN
IN SOUTHERN SECTOR
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN RAIN.
IV. STATE OF SEA MODERATE/ROUGH.
SUB AREA NO. 2 GULF OF OMAN
I. WIND SE/NE’LY 10-15KTS GUSTING 20KTS NORTH OF 24oN.
NE’LY 21-27 GUSTING 33 KTS SOUTH OF 24ºN
II. WEATHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM
RAIN IN SOUTHERN SECTOR
III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE POOR IN RAIN.
IV. STATE OF SEA MODERATE/ ROUGH OCCASSIONALY VERY ROUGH
IN SOUTHERN SECTOR.
SUB AREA NO. 3 CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA (12ºN/55ºE,
12ºN/63ºE, 20°N/58°E, 20ºN/67ºE)
I. WIND SE’LY 17-21KTS GUSTING 27KTS NORTH OF 18ºN AND EAST OF 65°E.
SE/NE‘LY 28-33 KTS GUSTING 47 KTS NORTH OF 18ºN AND WEST OF 65ºE.
SW/SE’LY 63-77 KTS GUSTING 93 KTS SOUTH OF 18ºN AND EAST OF 63°E.
CYCLONIC 63-77 KTS GUSTING 93 KTS SOUTH OF 18ºN AND WEST OF 63°E
II. WEATHER WIDE SPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSHOWER.
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN SHOWERS.
IV. STATE OF SEA VERY HIGH/PHENOMENAL.
SUB AREA NO. 4 GULF OF ADEN
I. WIND NE/SE’LY BECMG NW’LY 10-15 KTS WEST OF 50°E,
NW’LY 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20 KTS EAST OF 50°E.
II. WEATHER FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING.
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN HAZE.
IV. STATE OF SEA SLIGHT/MODERATE.

Metarea IX

PassageWeather is a FREE sailing weather website:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Do not use any information on this site for life or death decisions. All information is intended as supplementary to official sources. Kindly refer to your country’s official weather agency/government website for local warnings, advisories and bulletins.

Goaty's News welcomes your replies. Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s